Core Viewpoint - The rebar futures market shows a strong performance with the main contract at 3106.00 CNY/ton, up by 0.58% as of November 28 [1] Group 1: Market Statistics - On November 28, the price of rebar from Zhongtian is 3220 CNY/ton, with a daily shipment of 47,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the same period last week [2] - Rebar inventory in Hangzhou is at 920,000 tons, down by 13,000 tons from the same period last week [2] - For the week ending November 27, rebar production is 2.0608 million tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons, or 0.90%, while apparent demand is 2.2794 million tons, down by 28,500 tons, or 1.23% [2] Group 2: Production and Maintenance - From December 2, Lianan Steel will conduct maintenance on its Anyuan No. 1-3 blast furnaces and rolling lines for 25 days, expected to impact construction material production by 100,000 tons [2] - Changsha's resource supply will be reduced to 70% capacity [2] - Lian Steel will maintain production at three blast furnaces, while Lian Steel will conduct maintenance on its 2200m blast furnace for 34 days starting December 2, affecting rebar and hot/cold rolled production [2] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures indicates that steel mills continue to increase production, with inventory reduction remaining strong, leading to a fluctuating steel price [3] - Demand for rebar is showing a month-on-month increase due to higher concrete shipments, while demand for sheet metal remains weak [3] - Guodu Futures notes that the steel market has entered a "dual weak" seasonal balance, with overall contradictions not being prominent, suggesting a short-term fluctuating market without clear directional drivers [3]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows a significant increase, with plywood futures experiencing a slight upward trend, currently priced at 146.75 yuan/ton, up by 0.10% [1] - As of the week ending November 22, the U.S. steel capacity utilization rate stands at 76.9% according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) [1] - The World Steel Association projects that global crude steel production will reach 1.433 billion tons by October 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%, with production from January to October 2025 at 1.5176 billion tons, down 2.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The China Iron and Steel Association reports that as of mid-November, social inventory of five major steel varieties in 21 cities is 8.71 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons or 2.5% month-on-month, but an increase of 2.12 million tons or 32.2% compared to the beginning of the year, and up 1.87 million tons or 27.3% year-on-year [1] - As of November 24, the total urban inventory is 8.8696 million tons, down by 231,100 tons or 2.54% from the previous week, with construction steel inventory totaling 4.5574 million tons, a decrease of 172,500 tons or 3.65% week-on-week [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply and demand of steel products have both increased, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The profitability of steel mills is declining, and the terminal demand is still weak. Although the apparent demand has rebounded, the sustainability of the demand improvement is questionable due to seasonal factors. The cost side still provides support [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Steel Product Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 2.0796 million tons (+79,600 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.1601 million tons (+23,500 tons). Some steel mills have resumed production, increasing the supply pressure [5]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has rebounded. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.3079 million tons (+144,200 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.2442 million tons (+108,300 tons). However, the sustainability of the demand improvement is questionable due to seasonal factors, and the terminal demand is still weak [5]. 3.2 Inventory - **Rebar**: The total inventory of rebar was 5.5334 million tons (-228,300 tons), the social inventory was 4.0002 million tons (-157,300 tons), and the steel mill inventory was 1.5332 million tons (-71,000 tons) [8]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.0211 million tons (-84,100 tons), the social inventory was 3.2409 million tons (-89,100 tons), and the steel mill inventory was 780,200 tons (+5,000 tons) [8]. 3.3 Price - **Spot Price**: As of November 21, the average national summary price of rebar was 3,268 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from last week; the average national summary price of hot - rolled coils was 3,309 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from last week [11]. - **Basis**: As of November 21, the basis of the rebar main contract was 163 yuan/ton (+26), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 0 yuan/ton (-4) [8][14]. 3.4 Raw Materials - **Price**: The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,480 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,645 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton) [16]. 3.5 Production Indicators - **Iron Water Production**: The iron water output was 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous period [8][20]. - **Blast Furnace and Electric Furnace Indicators**: As of November 21, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62% month - on - month, the electric furnace operating rate increased by 1% month - on - month, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.22% month - on - month, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.62% month - on - month [8]. - **Steel Mill Profitability**: As of November 21, the profitability of steel mills was 37.66%, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous period [8][24]. - **Tangshan Blast Furnace Operating Rate**: As of November 21, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 91.20%, unchanged from the previous period [29]. 3.6 Other Market Data - **Steel Export**: In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a decrease of 690,000 tons from the previous month; from January to October, the cumulative steel export volume was 97.737 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.6% [65]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, an increase of 466,000 vehicles from the previous month; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons from the previous month. The production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million vehicles, an increase of 226,000 vehicles from the previous month; new energy vehicle sales increased by 209,000 tons from the previous month [69]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to September, national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, the new construction area of houses decreased by 18.9%, the completed area of houses decreased by 15.3%, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 5.5%, the sales amount of newly built commercial housing decreased by 7.9%, and the funds in place for development enterprises decreased by 8.4% [71][72].

Core Insights - The total inventory of steel materials in 38 cities across the country has decreased by 30,900 tons week-on-week, reaching 9.3332 million tons, a decline of 0.33% [1] Inventory Breakdown - The total inventory of construction steel is 4.8292 million tons, which is a decrease of 43,300 tons week-on-week (-0.89%), covering 30 cities and 79 warehouses [1] - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 2.4768 million tons, down by 11,800 tons week-on-week (-0.47%), including 15 cities and 47 warehouses [1] - The total inventory of medium and heavy plates has increased by 20,000 tons week-on-week (+2.70%), totaling 762,000 tons, across 9 cities and 14 warehouses [1] - The total inventory of cold-rolled and coated products has risen by 4,200 tons week-on-week (+0.33%), amounting to 1.2652 million tons, covering 5 cities and 14 warehouses [1]

新华财经北京11月5日电中钢协发布2025年10月下旬重点企业钢材库存旬报。2025年10月下旬，重点统 计钢铁企业钢材库存量1463万吨，环比上一旬减少195万吨，下降11.8%；比年初增加226万吨，增长 18.3%；比上月同旬减少4万吨，下降0.3%；比去年同旬增加99万吨，增长7.3%，比前年同旬增加86万 吨，增长6.3%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a mixed trend with weak spot prices, while the demand and supply dynamics indicate a potential for inventory adjustments and production cuts in response to market conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6] Supply - Iron element production increased by 5% year-on-year from January to September, but the growth rate narrowed in October due to environmental restrictions in Tangshan, leading to a decrease in molten iron output by 30,000 tons to 2.37 million tons [3] - The production of the five major steel products remained stable year-on-year, with a slight increase of 100,000 tons to 8.75 million tons, although the output of rebar and hot-rolled steel fell short of demand [3] Demand - Domestic demand expectations remain weak, while exports are holding at high levels, supported by low prices [4] - The total demand for steel has recovered to a year-on-year flat position, with an increase of 240,000 tons to 9.12 million tons, particularly for rebar and hot-rolled steel [4] Inventory - Inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 410,000 tons to 15.13 million tons, with rebar and hot-rolled steel inventories also declining [5] - Despite the decrease in inventory, production levels are below demand, indicating a potential for continued inventory reduction, although the rate of reduction for hot-rolled steel is slower [5] Cost and Profit - Steel profits have significantly declined from high levels, with the current profit ranking from highest to lowest being billet, hot-rolled, rebar, and cold-rolled [2] - The cost support for iron element is weak, while carbon element costs provide some support [2] Market Outlook - The steel market is expected to continue its downward trend, with the need to compress profits to curb production [6] - The focus remains on the supply side of coking coal, with rebar and hot-rolled steel expected to trade within specific price ranges [6]

Core Insights - The total inventory of steel materials in 38 cities across the country reached 9.3641 million tons as of November 3, showing a decrease of 134,600 tons (-1.42%) compared to the previous week [1][2] Inventory Summary - **Construction Steel Inventory**: The total inventory was 4.8725 million tons, down by 83,900 tons (-1.69%) from the previous week [1][2] - **Hot Rolled Steel Inventory**: The total inventory was 2.4886 million tons, decreasing by 42,600 tons (-1.68%) compared to the previous week [1][2] - **Medium and Heavy Plate Inventory**: The total inventory stood at 742,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 400 tons (-0.05%) from the previous week [1][2] - **Cold Rolled Coated Inventory**: The total inventory was 1.2610 million tons, down by 7,700 tons (-0.61%) from the previous week [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The marginal impact of the macro - environment on the steel industry is weakening, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within a range [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 2.1 Fundamental Situation - **Price and Basis**: The report presents season - based price charts of Shanghai 20mm rebar and 4.75mm hot - rolled coil, as well as the basis season charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil 01 contracts in Shanghai [9][10][12]. - **Contract Spreads**: It includes the 01 - 05 contract spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and the spread between the main contracts of hot - rolled coil and rebar [14][15][16]. - **Profit**: The report shows the 01 - contract disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil [22]. - **Production**: Statistics on monthly pig iron and crude steel production, 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, and the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces are provided [24][25][34]. - **Import and Export**: Data on steel and billet import quantities, steel and billet export quantities, and the export profits of Indian and Japanese hot - rolled coils are presented [36][59]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Information on the weekly apparent demand and total inventory of five major steel products, as well as the inventory of billets in the Tangshan area, is included [44][51]. 2.2 November Market Outlook - Although no specific outlook content is provided, the report is expected to analyze the market trend of the steel industry in November based on the previous fundamental data. 2.3 Macroeconomic and Downstream Industry Indicators - **Financial Indicators**: Data on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, and the loan demand index for infrastructure are presented [74][93]. - **Real Estate Indicators**: Information on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities, monthly year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales area, and new housing starts area is provided [76][81]. - **Infrastructure Indicators**: Data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure fixed - asset investment, monthly year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment, and cement direct - supply volume for infrastructure are presented [96][99]. - **Manufacturing Indicators**: Information on the performance of various sub - items of the PMI, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits, and monthly year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value is provided [105][108]. - **Downstream Industry Production**: Data on the monthly production of automobiles, civil steel ships, excavators, metal containers, refrigerators, and air conditioners are presented [119][125].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The steel price in the short - term will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and it still follows the fluctuation of coking coal. Breaking the current situation requires more factors. The subsequent focus should be on coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Related Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is priced at 3190 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3140 yuan (+20), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3340 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3240 yuan (+20) [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The steel price will maintain a volatile trend with upward pressure [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and the long position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - In November 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is 28.47 million units, a 17.7% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Specifically, the production schedule of household air conditioners is 12.76 million units, a 23.7% decrease; that of refrigerators is 7.78 million units, a 9.4% decrease; and that of washing machines is 7.93 million units, a 0.2% decrease [7]. - Last week, 21 exporters surveyed by SMM received new export orders of approximately 789,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons from the previous week, a 12.16% increase [8]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts related to rebar and hot - rolled coil, including price trends, basis, spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [9][11][13].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The latest data from Steel Silver E-commerce indicates a decrease in the total inventory of steel materials across 38 cities in China, reflecting a downward trend in stock levels as of October 27, 2023 [1]. Inventory Data - The total steel inventory across 135 warehouses in 38 cities is 9.4987 million tons, which is a decrease of 128,700 tons compared to the previous week, representing a decline of 1.34% [1]. - The inventory of construction steel is 4.9564 million tons, down by 73,800 tons week-on-week, a reduction of 1.47% [1]. - Hot-rolled coil inventory stands at 2.5312 million tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons, reflecting a decline of 1.05% [1]. - Medium and heavy plate inventory is 742,400 tons, down by 11,700 tons, which is a decrease of 1.55% [1]. - Cold-rolled and coated inventory totals 1.2687 million tons, with a reduction of 16,300 tons, marking a decline of 1.27% [1].