Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the hot-rolled coil plate sector remains strong, with wide fluctuations [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,138 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.16%); trading volume was 1,164,609 lots, and open interest was 2,122,341 lots, down 78,184 lots. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,276 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.09%); trading volume was 454,659 lots, and open interest was 1,580,291 lots, down 19,457 lots [2] - **Spot Price Data**: In the spot market, prices of some regions for both rebar and hot-rolled coil plate remained stable, while some had minor changes. For example, Shanghai's rebar price dropped 10 yuan/ton, and Tianjin's hot-rolled coil plate price dropped 10 yuan/ton, while Guangzhou's hot-rolled coil plate price rose 10 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2510 decreased from 87 yuan/ton to 72 yuan/ton, and that of HC2510 decreased from 27 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton. Various spreads also had different degrees of changes [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Financial Data**: In late June 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than last month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3] - **Steel Export Data**: In June 2025, China exported 967.8 million tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 90.0 million tons (8.5%); the average price was 687.1 dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 10.8 dollars/ton (1.5%). From January to June, the cumulative steel export was 5814.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 490.8 million tons (9.2%) [3][4] - **Weekly Steel Data**: According to the weekly data on July 10, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 4.42 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 5.00 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 12.44 million tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 4.84 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 0.63 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 0.35 million tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 3.37 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 1.86 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 12.19 million tons [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot-rolled coil plate is also 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

钢材周度供需数据解读 2025/6/5 研究员: 冉宇蒙 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 Z0022199 需求季节性转弱,市场情绪偏悲观 需求：螺纹表需229.03万吨（-19.65）,同比-0.91%;热卷表需320.92万吨（-6.01）,同比-2.73%;五大材表需 882.17 万吨（-31.62）,同比-3.46W。 供给: 螺纹产量218.46万吨（-7.05）,同比-3.13%； 热卷产量328.75万吨（+9.2）,同比2.88%;五大材产量880.38万吨（-0.47）,同比-0.05%。 库存:螺纹库存570.48万吨（-10.57）,同比-1.82%;热卷库存340.64万吨（+7.83）,同比2.35%;五大材库存1363.81万吨（-1.79),同比-0.13%。 赌评。本周螺红需求季节性走弱。不过同比降幅投哀潮旺幸已经不明显。电炉目前普遍亏损，高炉利润也转弱，螺纹产量降幅较大，库存保持较大出他度。板材方面卸分格巷机机息产，供给进一步回升，表积则同样进入零节生转 弱阶段，库存低位小幅回升，压力尚可。冷轧和中厚低供需堆持高位。"抢出口"对制造业需求仍有一定支撑。不过从终端 ...

钢材周度供需数据解读 2025/5/30 研究员: 余典 从业资相号 F03122524 投资咨询号 Z0019832 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099559 投资资询号 Z0020955 张磊 从业资格号 F03106996 投资咨询号 Z0021-118 薛磊 从业资格号 F03100815 投资咨询号 Z0021807 冉宇蒙 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 Z0022199 需求略有回暖,预期仍偏悲观 需求:螺纹表需248.68万吨（+1.55）,同比-0.49%;热卷表需326.93万吨（+13.87）,同比3.27%;五大材表需 913.79 万吨（+9.23）,同比1.02%。 供给:螺纹产量225.51万吨（-5.97）,同比-2.58%;热卷产量319.55万吨（+13.87）,同比4.54%;五大材产量880.85万吨（+8.41）,同比-0.96%。 库存: 螺纹库存581.05万吨（-23.17）,同比-3.83%; 热卷库存332.81万吨（-7.38）,同比-2.17%;五大材库存1365.6万吨（-32.94）,同比-2.36%。 -2025 - 2024 - 202 ...

Supply - Iron element production has declined for three consecutive weeks, while finished product output is recovering. Daily iron water production decreased by 16,900 tons to 2.42 million tons; scrap steel consumption decreased by 1,500 tons to 530,000 tons. The output of the five major materials increased by 84,000 tons to 8.81 million tons; rebar production decreased by 60,000 tons to 2.25 million tons; hot-rolled coil production increased by 139,000 tons to 3.20 million tons. Off-balance sheet material production decreased month-on-month [2] Demand - From January to May, the apparent demand for the five major materials remained basically flat year-on-year (-0.8%), while production also remained stable (-0.9%). The increase in iron element production is more directed towards non-major materials and steel billets. Domestic demand decreased year-on-year, while external demand increased, leading to a slight overall increase in steel demand [3] Inventory - Steel inventory continues to show a trend of destocking, although the pace of destocking has slowed recently, with cold-rolled steel maintaining an accumulation trend. The five major materials decreased by 320,000 tons to 13.656 million tons; rebar decreased by 230,000 tons to 5.81 million tons; hot-rolled coil decreased by 74,000 tons to 3.328 million tons. Cold-rolled steel continues to accumulate [4] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal continues to accumulate, with prices declining. Given that coking coal supply is unlikely to contract, the cost support for carbon elements is weak. Iron ore maintains a destocking trend, with current shipments recovering, coupled with a decline in iron water and expectations of decreased demand, which suppresses iron ore prices. Overall cost support is weak. Under expectations of weakened demand, steel prices have fallen, currently below electric furnace cost, with the next step being a potential drop below blast furnace costs [5] Viewpoint - Recently, coking coal has driven a noticeable rebound in black metals, primarily due to short sellers exiting the market, leading to a decline in open interest. Currently, there are no favorable narratives for the industry to bet on. Data from Steel Home indicates a decline in production, a decrease in apparent demand, and a slowdown in destocking. Increased maintenance of blast furnaces is expected to lead to a slight decline in iron water. In the context of declining iron water and apparent demand, the negative feedback logic for finished products continues. However, with low steel inventory in June and a modest decline in demand, the expected decline in iron water is not significant, making it difficult to form deep negative feedback [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - For the steel product industry, it is recommended to be treated with a bias towards short positions in a volatile market [1] - For the raw material industry, it is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel product market is currently affected by high supply and weak demand, with prices continuously bottoming out. As it enters the seasonal demand off - season, it is difficult for demand to improve substantially in the short term [1] Summary by Related Content Steel Product - As of May 29, 2025, 7 Shandong steel mills have adjusted their annual crude steel production to 55.63 million tons, a decrease of about 3.5 million tons compared to the same period last year [1] - This week, the supply of Mysteel's five major steel products was 8.8085 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 84,100 tons, an increase of 1% [1] - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 13.656 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 329,400 tons. Among them, the social inventory was 9.3254 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 280,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 4.3306 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,200 tons [1] - After continuous decline, the steel product price rebounded slightly yesterday. The weekly inventory continued to decline, and the apparent demand increased slightly [1] Raw Material - The raw material market is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [1]

Supply - Iron element production shows signs of decline, with daily pig iron output decreasing by 0.87 million tons to 2.447 million tons; scrap steel daily consumption remains stable at 0.545 million tons. The total output of the five major materials decreased by 0.058 million tons to 8.684 million tons, with rebar production increasing by 0.03 million tons to 2.265 million tons, and hot-rolled coil production decreasing by 0.084 million tons to 3.12 million tons. Cumulative iron element production from January to April increased by 11.5 million tons year-on-year, with a daily increase of nearly 0.1 million tons [2] Demand - Demand for steel has been revised upward due to the May Day holiday, with total demand for the five major materials increasing by 0.687 million tons to 9.138 million tons. Rebar demand increased by 0.46 million tons to 2.603 million tons, and hot-rolled coil demand increased by 0.2 million tons to 3.295 million tons. Steel exports from January to April reached 37.89 million tons, an increase of 2.87 million tons year-on-year, with a daily increase of 0.024 million tons [3] Inventory - Steel inventory continues to show a trend of reduction, with total inventory of the five major materials decreasing by 0.45 million tons to 14.307 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 0.338 million tons to 6.2 million tons, and hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.1755 million tons to 3.476 million tons [4] Cost and Profit - Coking coal prices have decreased, leading to a slight increase in steel prices and an expansion of profits. The profit for rebar at integrated steel mills remains at 50 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled coil maintains a profit of 100 yuan per ton. Electric arc furnace steel mills face a cost of 3169 yuan for off-peak electricity, with rebar electric arc furnace mills currently in a loss position [5] Market Outlook - Weekly data indicates a decline in iron element production, but current inventory and profit levels are sufficient to support high pig iron production. Steel inventory is decreasing, but cold-rolled and coated inventory is accumulating. As the industry approaches the off-season, attention is shifting to the potential decline in industrial material demand. The cost side shows a continuous drop in carbon elements, negatively impacting steel prices. The industry is characterized by high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and a recovery in demand expectations. Seasonal off-peak demand and potential declines in manufacturing demand (exports) are anticipated. Technically, prices face resistance at the 40-day moving average, with a weak market outlook. However, the current demand decline is not significant, and exports remain high, suggesting a low-price fluctuation trend, with attention on support levels for rebar and hot-rolled coil at 3000 and 3150 yuan respectively. The recommendation is to remain cautious for now [6]