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铁矿石月报:铁水支撑仍存,关注限产预期-20250808
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 14:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July, the "anti-involution" sentiment drove the overall sentiment of commodities. The supply and demand of iron ore were relatively good, and the price rose under the influence of sentiment. After the sentiment subsided, the price fluctuated. In August, the supply is expected to recover to some extent as July was the traditional off-season for overseas mines' shipments, and the near-term arrivals may increase. The daily average hot metal output is expected to remain at a relatively high level, but the weakening demand of the downstream terminal needs attention. The port inventory is expected to rise slightly. Overall, the focus of the black sector remains on coking coal, and the iron ore fundamentals do not show obvious contradictions, with the price expected to fluctuate. Attention should also be paid to the possible impact of the production restriction expectations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region before the "September 3rd Parade" [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The weekly average of global iron ore shipments in July was 30.73 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.5885 million tons. The weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons [13]. - **Demand**: The domestic daily average hot metal output in July was 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of July, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 126 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 104 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 7 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 146 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was -11 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of July, the pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2265 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, and in Zhangjiagang was 2150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of July, the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, an increase of 4.33 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 3.9029 million tons, a decrease of 0.9653 million tons. The iron concentrate inventory was 10.815 million tons, a decrease of 1.0125 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 16.825 million tons, an increase of 1.7881 million tons. The Australian ore inventory was 61.9325 million tons, an increase of 0.9517 million tons. The Brazilian ore inventory was 47.786 million tons, a decrease of 1.442 million tons [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [43]. 4. Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In July, the weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 5.788 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.771 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.4773 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9315 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 6.1115 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0575 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.5103 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9163 million tons [49][52][55]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports in July was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons. In June, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6103 million tons [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of July, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 61.51%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate from domestic mines was 480300 tons, a decrease of 11300 tons from the end of the previous month [61]. 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production**: The domestic hot metal output in July was 74.79 million tons, with a daily average of 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month. At the end of July, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the end of the previous month [66]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In July, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 3.0041 million tons, a decrease of 0.0038 million tons from the previous month [69]. 6. Basis - As of July 31, the basis of the iron ore IOC6 main contract was 50.07 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.04% [74].
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250805
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:43
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The demand for iron ore has good resilience, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices. However, the supply of iron ore is increasing, and there is an expectation of a weakening in the fundamentals. Under the game of long and short factors, it is expected that the ore price will continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2][3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weaker. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience, and the ore price is operating at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - On the supply side, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, the shipment of overseas miners has decreased again (but the sustainability of the decrease at high ore prices needs to be tracked), and domestic ore production is weakly stable, so the ore supply continues to show a steady - to - rising trend. - On the demand side, steel mill production is weakening, the terminal consumption of ore is continuously weakening with an expanding decline, but the profitability of steel mills is good, and the demand has some resilience, which supports the ore price [3].
铁矿石周报:情绪极致演绎,注意短期调整-20250726
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-26 13:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term commodity sentiment is being extremely interpreted, and attention should be paid to the possible inflection point of the sentiment. As an important meeting in July is approaching, the iron ore price is expected to turn into a volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall sentiment of the black sector and the macro - economic realization. The iron ore price increase is due to the domestic commodity policy expectations and the profit space given by downstream industries under the condition of a not - bad short - term supply - demand situation. After the coking coal becomes overly strong, it squeezes the iron ore price, resulting in a decline in the iron ore price after the continuous sharp rise of coking coal this week [11][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.068 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 16.294 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.089 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.436 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.135 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.226 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.021 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.714 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.909 million tons [13]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week increase of 3.47 percentage points [13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 143.9568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1417 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0943 million tons [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 126 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 3 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 7 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 80 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 30 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week change of + 3.47 percentage points; the PB powder import profit was - 4.74 yuan/wet ton [28]. - Freight: Information about international Baltic dry bulk shipping index and freight rates per country is presented in the figures but no summary data is given in the text. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 137.9038 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.0517 million tons. The pellet inventory was 390,290 tons, a week - on - week change of - 29,060 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 1.0815 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 950 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.6825 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 87,250 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 61.9325 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.7543 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 47.786 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.5763 million tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.88522 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.06306 million tons [35][38][41][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Shipment Volume: The volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China through 19 ports was 13.854 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.015 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.078 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.974 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment volume to China was 4.571 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.514 million tons. BHP's shipment volume to China was 4.6 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.755 million tons. Vale's shipment volume was 6.856 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.677 million tons. FMG's shipment volume to China was 2.79 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.79 million tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 2.909 million tons. The non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore import volume in China in June was 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.6103 million tons [59]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.51%, a week - on - week change of + 0.57 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 48,030 tons, a week - on - week change of + 450 tons [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Pig Iron Output and Blast Furnace Utilization: The domestic daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a week - on - week change of - 0.08 percentage points [70]. - Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1515 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0759 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 3.011 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0015 million tons [73]. 3.6 Basis - As of July 25, the calculated iron ore IOC6 basis was 46.13 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.44% [78].
铁矿石:本周价格上涨,供需现宽松格局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-20 15:41
Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have shown a short-term rebound while the long-term supply and demand remain relatively loose [1] Supply Summary - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.87 million tons this period, a decrease of 80,000 tons week-on-week [1] - Australian and non-mainstream shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments increased [1] - Iron ore arrivals at 45 ports reached 26.62 million tons, an increase of 1.78 million tons week-on-week [1] Demand Summary - A survey of 247 steel mills indicated a blast furnace operating rate of 83.46%, up 0.31% week-on-week and 0.83% year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 90.89%, an increase of 0.99% week-on-week and 1.27% year-on-year [1] - Steel mill profit margins were at 60.17%, up 0.43% week-on-week and 28.14% year-on-year [1] - Daily average pig iron production was 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons week-on-week and 2.79% year-on-year [1] Inventory Summary - Total iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 137.85 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons week-on-week [1] - Daily average iron ore throughput at 45 ports was 3.2274 million tons, an increase of 32,300 tons week-on-week [1] Overall Market Outlook - The global shipment volume has slightly decreased while arrivals have increased; pig iron production is at a historical high, indicating resilient iron ore consumption [1] - Attention is needed on the intensity of steel consumption during the off-season [1] - The short-term price rebound is supported by macro sentiment and fundamentals, while the long-term outlook remains in a loose supply-demand balance [1]
周报:淡季需求压力仍存,钢价冲高回落-20250715
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 23:30
Report Title - The report is titled "Weak Demand Pressure in the Off - season, Steel Prices Rise and Then Fall - Weekly Report 20250707" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic environment shows enhanced expectations of warming policies, leading to a significant rebound in steel futures and spot prices. However, in the industrial aspect, the overall supply - demand structure continues to weaken during the high - temperature and rainy off - season. Steel prices are expected to face short - term correction pressure as the previous macro - positive sentiment fades [3][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: In the previous week, due to the improved macro - atmosphere and enhanced expectations of capacity control, commodity prices generally rebounded. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities increased, with rebar in Shanghai rising by 90 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai rising by 60 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton. Futures prices also showed significant increases, with the RB01 contract rising by 88 yuan/ton to 3093 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory Changes**: Rebar social inventory slightly increased, and hot - rolled coil total inventory increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar total inventory decreased by 3.79 tons to 545.21 tons, while hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 3.77 tons to 344.93 tons [9] 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 221.08 tons (up 1.49% week - on - week, down 11.01% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 328.14 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week, up 0.57% year - on - year). Rebar production increased in both blast furnaces and electric furnaces, with blast furnace output at 195.24 tons (up 1.23% week - on - week, down 7.62% year - on - year) and electric furnace output at 25.84 tons (up 3.44% week - on - week, up 1.69% year - on - year). The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (down 0.43% week - on - week, up 0.42% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 66.87% (down 4.66% week - on - week, down 4.46% year - on - year) [15][17][22] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 224.87 tons (up 2.26% week - on - week, down 4.42% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 324.37 tons (down 0.58% week - on - week, up 2.10% year - on - year). The 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 10.68 tons (up 8.23% week - on - week, down 16.56% year - on - year) [36] - **Inventory**: Rebar slightly reduced inventory, with social inventory increasing and factory inventory decreasing. Rebar factory inventory was 180.47 tons (down 2.76% week - on - week, down 6.81% year - on - year), social inventory was 364.74 tons (up 0.37% week - on - week, down 35.63% year - on - year), and total inventory was 545.21 tons (down 0.69% week - on - week, down 30.69% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, with both factory and social inventory slightly rising. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 78.32 tons (up 0.13% week - on - week, down 13.31% year - on - year), social inventory was 266.61 tons (up 1.40% week - on - week, down 19.58% year - on - year), and total inventory was 344.93 tons (up 1.11% week - on - week, down 18.14% year - on - year) [40][45] - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 39.03% week - on - week and 2.42% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 38.28% week - on - week and increased by 8.91% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in May 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.1% and 3.7%, and year - on - year increases of 11.6% and 11.2% [48][51] 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased to 2417.8 tons (down 13.25% week - on - week, down 4.15% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2483.9 tons (up 5.12% week - on - week, down 10.89% year - on - year). The iron ore price index was 95.44 (up 3.38% week - on - week, down 13.70% year - on - year) [59] - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 319.29 tons (down 2.04% week - on - week, up 1.87% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.65 days (up 0.95% week - on - week, down 5.63% year - on - year) [64] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.37% week - on - week to 13878.4 tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.80% week - on - week to 8918.57 tons. The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises were 22.44 days (up 0.22% week - on - week, up 3.55% year - on - year) [70] 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines increased to 83.82% (up 1.62% week - on - week, down 6.90% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal - washing plants was 59.72% (up 1.05% week - on - week, down 14.48% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased by 64% week - on - week to 12.56 tons (down 19.13% year - on - year) [76] - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction成交 rate was 79.17% (down 7% week - on - week, down 19.51% year - on - year), and the weekly成交 rate was 86.7% (up 23.31% week - on - week, down 2.87% year - on - year). The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year) [78] - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants increased by 5.57% week - on - week to 716.49 tons, the port inventory of coking coal increased by 6.54% week - on - week to 304.27 tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased by 1.03% week - on - week to 789.43 tons. The coke inventory of independent coking plants decreased by 16.45% week - on - week to 61.6 tons, the coke port inventory decreased by 4.48% week - on - week to 191.12 tons, and the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 637.49 tons [91][97] - **Spot Price**: After four rounds of price cuts, coke prices temporarily stabilized. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1180 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 820 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103] 5. Spread Analysis - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The basis of hot - rolled coil significantly contracted, and the spreads between the 10 - 1 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted [105] - **Others**: The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore contracted, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar fluctuated within a narrow range [111]
短期宏观预期偏强 预计铁矿石延续高位震荡走势
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-11 06:10
Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals shows mixed performance, with iron ore futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 770.0 yuan/ton and a gain of 2.07% [1] - Supply is rebounding while iron and steel production is seasonally weakening, leading to increased inventory at ports, which raises the risk of overvaluation for iron ore [1] - The recent increase in iron ore prices is supported by macroeconomic factors, with expectations of continued high-level fluctuations in prices [1] Group 2 - Demand for iron ore remains resilient due to profit-driven raw material needs, despite a current decline in iron and steel production [2] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased recently, primarily due to disruptions in Australian shipments, while port inventory is being depleted rapidly [2] - The short-term macro outlook is strong, with attention on the continued export of steel billets and the positive feedback effect on raw materials [2]
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250708
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 01:40
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025 年 7 月 8 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局走弱,矿价偏弱震荡 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端均有所走弱,淡季钢厂临检增多,矿石终端消耗开始回落,但依旧是年内高位, 给予矿价支撑。与此同时,港口到货迎来回升,但矿商发运则是持续大幅减量,财年末结束后海外矿 石供应明显收缩,相应的内矿生产趋稳,矿石供应有所收缩,关注后续降幅情况。目前来看,"豁免 期"结束后关 ...
铁矿石供需过剩格局不变 后面回落的风险较大
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-07 06:17
Group 1 - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.949 million tons from June 30 to July 6, 2025, a decrease of 3.627 million tons compared to the previous period [1] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 24.650 million tons, down 4.173 million tons, with Australia contributing 18.026 million tons, a decrease of 1.964 million tons [1] - The average daily shipment from Brazil was 1.8167 million tons, an increase of 9.77% compared to July of the previous year [1] Group 2 - The current iron ore fundamentals are acceptable, but futures valuations are significantly high, indicating a risk of decline if spot strength does not keep up [2] - Recent iron ore prices have been influenced by market sentiment, with both global shipments and arrivals declining, yet remaining at relatively high levels compared to previous years [3] - The long-term outlook suggests a gradual recovery in supply, relatively low demand, and a shift towards inventory accumulation at ports, maintaining an oversupply situation in the iron ore market [3]
铁矿石月报:宏观窗口与情绪交织,矿价宽幅震荡-20250704
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 12:50
万林新(联系人) 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号:Z0020771 宏观窗口与情绪交织, 矿价宽幅震荡 铁矿石月报 从业资格号:F03133967 陈张滢(黑色建材组) 从业资格号:F03098415 2025/07/04 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 黑色产业链示意图 月度要点小结 ◆ 供应:测算6月全球铁矿石发运周均值3431.85万吨,环比+222.45万吨;6月,澳洲发往中国周均值1758.03万吨,较上月变化+175.41万吨。 巴西发运量周均值834.55万吨,较上月变化+41.19万吨。测算45港到港量周均值2479.88万吨,较上月环比+127.20万吨。 ◆ 需求:测算6月日均铁水产量241.93万吨,较上月变化-1.84万吨。 ◆ 库存:6月末,全国45个港口进口铁矿库存13930.23万吨,较上月变化+63.65万吨;45港铁矿石日均疏港量周均值319.29万吨,较上月变化 +5.61万吨;钢厂进口铁矿石库存8847.47万吨,较上月末变化+93.14万吨。 ◆ 小结:展望7月,供给方面, ...
黑色建材周报:消费维持韧性,铁矿震荡运行-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 12:11
黑色建材周报 | 2025-06-22 消费维持韧性,铁矿震荡运行 需求方面:Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率83.82%,周环比增加0.41%,年同比增加1.01% ;高炉炼铁产能利用 率90.79%,周环比增加0.21% ,年同比增加1.03%;钢厂盈利率59.31%,周环比增加0.87%,年同比增加7.36%; 日均铁水产量 241.18万吨,周环比增加0.57万吨,年同比增加2.24万吨。 库存方面:Mysteel统计,全国45港铁矿石库存总量13894.16万吨,环比减少38.98万吨;45港日均疏港量313.56万 吨,环比增加12.31万吨。 整体来看:目前铁矿石供给整体回升。受钢厂检修复产影响,本周铁水产量小幅回升,考虑到当前钢厂利润尚可, 铁矿消费维持韧性,后续铁水降幅取决于淡季成材需求及钢厂利润情况。库存方面受港口船舶压港数量上升影响, 铁矿港口库存小幅去化。长期来看,铁矿石依旧呈现供需偏宽松格局,后期持续关注淡季铁水产量情况及铁矿石 库存变化。 策略 单边:震荡偏弱 跨期:无 跨品种:无 期现:无 期权:无 风险 宏观政策、海外铁矿发运、钢厂利润、废钢供应等。 市场分析 本周铁矿 ...