1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, and the winter storage has not arrived yet. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system have been fully reflected in prices. For both steel products and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for medium - term trading [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Last week, threaded rod production increased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the production of the five major steel varieties decreased. Overall inventory continued to decline. Threaded rod apparent demand rebounded slightly, while the overall apparent demand of the five major varieties declined. Due to the significant drop in steel mill gross profit and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. Recently, the sharp rebound in coal and coke prices has increased the cost support for the market [2] - **Technical analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel products briefly fell below the oscillation range and then quickly rebounded. Currently, it has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [2] - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of the threaded rod and hot - rolled coil main contracts, as well as their spot prices, all showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous week. For example, the threaded rod main contract closing price was 3126 yuan/ton, up 1.69% from the previous week [2] - **Basis and spread**: There were changes in the basis and spreads of various steel products. For example, the threaded rod main basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2] - **Production**: The production of threaded rods by national building material steel mills increased by 1.62% to 181.68 million tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.44% to 291.91 million tons [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory and steel mill inventory of the five major varieties decreased, with the social inventory of the five major varieties dropping by 3.74% to 906.47 million tons [2] - **Apparent demand**: The overall apparent demand of the five major varieties decreased by 0.53% to 835.28 million tons [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel varieties decreased. With the arrival of the off - season, iron - water production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. The reduction of steel mill production suppresses raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - festival restocking demand will also arrive later than usual [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices. The building steel bar production license system and the inclusion of steel products in export license management have been fully digested by the market [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [4] - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 781.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3.78% from the previous week. The prices of various iron ore powders at ports also changed to different extents [4][5] - **Basis and spread**: There were fluctuations in the basis and spreads of iron ore futures, such as the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread increasing by 6.0 yuan/dry ton compared to the previous week [5] - **Shipment**: Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 3.41% to 1703.9 million tons, and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased by 8.77% to 747.6 million tons [5] - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased by 0.53% to 15512.63 million tons, while the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased by 1.52% to 1180.48 million tons [5] 3.3 Industry News - Six special working groups led by multiple departments have carried out inspections in 12 key regions across the country to combat illegal mining of mineral resources. As of now, inspections have been completed in Guangxi, Hubei, and other places [7] - As of the week of December 21st, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 million tons to 3464.5 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 150.8 million tons to 2814.7 million tons [7] - From December 15th to 21st, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 137.9 million tons to 2790.2 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports decreased by 76.7 million tons to 2646.7 million tons [7] - On the 22nd, mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market lowered their coke procurement prices, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in the Hebei market also lowered their coke procurement prices [8] - An alloy factory in Inner Mongolia's Chayouqianqi has successively ignited the first and second silicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnaces and plans to ignite the third before the Spring Festival in 2026 and the fourth after the Spring Festival [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 2.63%. The port iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, and the molten iron production continued to decline, with both supply and demand being weak. Affected by the relatively strong sentiment in the commodity market last week, it rebounded in a volatile manner. Iron ore is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the medium term. For single - side trading, it is advisable to be cautiously short - biased at high levels. If it stabilizes above the important pressure level of 800 yuan/ton in the future, it is recommended to exit and wait and see. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [4][5][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Disk Analysis - This section includes futures price, spread analysis, and position analysis, but specific data and analysis are not provided in the given text [6][10] II. Important Market Information - In 2025, China's steel exports continued the trend of "increasing volume but decreasing price". From January to November, China exported 1.08 billion tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the annual export volume is expected to reach a record high. The average export price of steel was 696 US dollars per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 8.3%. - Australian mining company Genmin Limited recently completed a private placement financing of 25.7 million Australian dollars (approximately 17 million US dollars) for the subsequent development of its Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon. The project has confirmed ore resources of about 759 million tons, with an initial planned production capacity of 5 million tons per year, which is expected to increase to at least 10 million tons per year, and commercial production is expected to start around the end of 2026 [13] III. Supply - side Situation - As of November 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 110.54 million tons, a decrease of 770,000 tons from the previous month; the average import price was 101.49 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.94 US dollars per ton from the previous month. - As of November 2025, Australia's iron ore shipments were 61.849 million tons, a decrease of 4.993 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipments were 30.963 million tons, an increase of 1.708 million tons from the first half of the month [18][20] IV. Demand - side Situation - This section involves the daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the procurement volume of Shanghai terminal wire rods and screws, but specific analysis is not provided in the given text [21][25][30] V. Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 87.2395 million tons, a decrease of 1.1025 million tons month - on - month; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8056 million tons, a decrease of 27,100 tons month - on - month; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.09 days, a decrease of 0.09 days month - on - month. - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills showed that the blast furnace operating rate was 78.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.16%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.20%; the steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55%; the daily molten iron production was 2.2655 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 28,600 tons. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 national ports was 155.1263 million tons, an increase of 812,100 tons month - on - month; the daily port clearance volume was 3.1345 million tons, a decrease of 57,400 tons; the number of ships at the port was 111, an increase of 4. - Last week, Mysteel's statistics on the full sample of independent coking enterprises showed that the capacity utilization rate was 72.05%, a decrease of 1.11%; the daily coke production was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons; the coke inventory was 911,000 tons, an increase of 37,800 tons. - Mysteel's survey on the profit situation per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants across the country showed that the national average profit per ton of coke was 16 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 35 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 65 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke was - 23 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke was 66 yuan/ton [32][33] VI. Market Outlook - The port iron ore inventory continues to accumulate, and the molten iron production continues to decline, with both supply and demand being weak. Affected by the relatively strong sentiment in the commodity market last week, it rebounded in a volatile manner. Iron ore is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the medium term [35] VII. Operation Strategies - Single - side trading: Be cautiously short - biased at high levels. If it stabilizes above the important pressure level of 800 yuan/ton in the future, it is recommended to exit and wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for different products in the iron ore and related industries, the ratings are as follows: - Iron ore: The short - term view is neutral, with an expected wide - range consolidation within a certain price range [3]. - Coking coal: Neutral [6]. - Coke: Neutral [6]. - Rebar: Neutral [6]. - Hot - rolled coil: Neutral [6]. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market is under dual pressure from supply and demand. Supply - side factors include high shipping and arrival volumes, and rising port inventory. Demand - side factors involve a decline in molten iron production and cautious procurement by steel mills. Policy disturbances mainly reshape the cost structure rather than causing immediate selling pressure. The market sentiment is cautious, and it is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate widely within a range. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm and restocking signals from steel mills after the policy implementation in January [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - This week, the global iron ore shipping volume was 35.925 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.239 million tons (+6.65%); Australian shipping volume was 20.526 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.852 million tons (+4.33%); Brazilian shipping volume was 9.129 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.25 million tons (+32.71%); the combined shipping volume of Australia and Brazil was 29.655 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.102 million tons (+11.68%). The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 27.234 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.429 million tons (+9.79%) [3][37][54]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99% (-1.15%); the daily average molten iron production was 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0265 million tons (-1.10%); the profit ratio was 35.93%, unchanged from the previous week (+0.00%) [3][65]. - The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 155.1263 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8121 million tons (+0.53%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 162.2553 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1406 million tons (+0.71%) [3][88]. - The settlement price of the main iron ore futures contract was 777.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.00 yuan/ton (+2.24%); the basis was 31.81 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.26 yuan/ton (-14.19%); the Platts iron ore price index was 108.35 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 US dollars/dry ton (+3.19%); the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.008 [3][7]. 2. Key News and Industry Chain Dynamics - Steel mill dynamics: AMNS India plans to increase its steel production capacity to 25 - 26 million tons by 2030 [4]. - Mine dynamics: Rio Tinto and its joint - venture partner invested 191 million US dollars to start the feasibility study of the Rhodes Ridge iron ore mine in Australia; the iron ore project in Amapá, Brazil, plans to restart in 2026; Australian mining company Genmin completed a 17 - million - US - dollar financing to accelerate the Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon; India's SAIL signed a 28 - year mining contract for the Rowghat iron ore mine with Kalunga Company; US mining company MagIron obtained the first hematite mining lease in Minnesota [4]. - Macroeconomic news: Fed officials made various statements on monetary policy, and relevant economic data such as non - farm payrolls and manufacturing PMI were released [4]. 3. Futures Market - Main contract: The settlement price of the main contract was 777.00 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17.00 yuan/ton (+2.24%); the basis was 31.81 yuan/ton (-14.19%); the Platts iron ore price index was 108.85 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 US dollars/dry ton (+3.19%); the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.008 [7]. - Spread: The 9 - 1 spread was 40.00 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread was 18.00 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.00 yuan/ton. The narrowing trend of spreads between near - and far - month contracts was emerging [3][9]. 4. Spot Market - Iron ore spot price: The report presents price trends of the Platts iron ore index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder [18][20][23]. - Block - to - powder spread: The report shows the spread between different types of iron ore powders and block - to - powder spreads [24][27]. - Spread between different grades: The report analyzes spreads between medium - and low - grade ores, medium - and high - grade ores, and other grade combinations [30][31]. 5. Supply - Global shipping volume: This week, the global iron ore shipping volume increased, with significant increases in Australian and Brazilian shipping volumes [3][37]. - Shipping volume of the four major mines: The report shows the weekly average shipping volumes of the four major mines in Australia and Brazil and their shipping volumes to China [45][48]. - Shipping costs: The shipping cost from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.50 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 US dollars/ton (+3.65%); the shipping cost from Brazil to Qingdao was 24.07 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.06 US dollars/ton (+9.36%) [52]. - Domestic mines: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 59.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45% (-0.75%); the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 37.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 tons (-0.74%) [56]. 6. Demand - Steel enterprise production: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate, molten iron production, and profit ratio of steel mills showed certain changes, with a decline in molten iron production and stable profit ratio [3][65]. - Sinter powder consumption and charging ratio: The daily average consumption of domestic and imported sinter powders decreased, and the report also shows the charging ratios of block ore, sinter ore, and pellet ore in steel mills [67][68]. - Global steel production: The report presents the production of blast furnace pig iron and crude steel globally, in China, and in other regions [74][77][80]. - Port clearance: The port clearance volume and spot trading volume showed certain trends [85]. 7. Inventory - Port inventory: The iron ore inventory at 45 and 47 ports in China increased, and the report also shows the inventory of different types of iron ore such as iron concentrate powder, block ore, and pellet ore at ports [88][90]. - Steel mill inventory: The imported ore inventory and imported sinter powder inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased [95]. 8. Profit - The profit of Tangshan rebar was - 134.63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.51 yuan/ton (+6.75%); the profit of Tangshan hot - rolled coil was - 130.47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.46 yuan/ton (-6.76%) [101].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The core view is that the macro - risk appetite is being repaired again, and iron ore prices are strengthening in the short - term. Fundamentally, there has been no significant change in the supply - demand balance of iron ore, but the previously mentioned structural supply issues and macro factors still support its high valuation. The price's return to the fundamentals awaits the fading of macro - impacts [3][5]. 3. Summary by Sections Supply - **Mainstream Mines**: Global iron ore shipments have increased again, with Brazil contributing significantly to the growth. The cumulative global shipments from the beginning of the year to now reached 156,766.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. Australian shipments were 89,537.8 million tons, up 0.3% year - on - year, and Brazilian shipments were 38,237.2 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year increase [4]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: The overall performance of non - mainstream mines is neutral [21]. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate in North China has declined recently [29]. Demand - **Downstream Demand**: Demand continues the seasonal downward trend. The daily average of 45 - port imported ore evacuation volume and the actual output of five major steel products are showing a downward trend [32][33]. - **Scrap Steel Substitution**: The price of scrap steel has rebounded recently, and the low - level rebound of the scrap - iron price difference continues [35]. Inventory - Steel mills' inventory is actively being depleted. The inventory of imported ore in 45 ports is 15,512.6 million tons [4][39]. Price Performance - **Contract Performance**: The price of the main 05 contract has weakened in a volatile manner, closing at 780.00 yuan/ton, with a position of 535,000 hands, a week - on - week increase of 69,400 hands. The average daily trading volume was 269,000 hands, a week - on - week decrease of 9,600 hands [7]. - **Spot Price**: The price of medium - grade iron ore has increased relatively more. For example, the price of BRBF (62.5%) increased from 817 yuan/ton last week to 831 yuan/ton this week [12]. Spread - **Spot Category Spread**: The price of medium - grade PB is relatively strong, and the spread between domestic iron concentrate and PB has been continuously declining [45]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread shows signs of further convergence, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread is relatively stable [48]. - **Basis**: The basis has weakened, approaching last year's level [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, with high inventory pressure. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system still exert some pressure on the market. For steel, it is recommended to hold long positions lightly, and consider reducing or closing positions if a new downward trend forms. Do not short at the current position [2]. - For iron ore, demand is expected to decline as steel production decreases with the arrival of the off - season, and supply is at a high level with rising port inventories. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly for medium - term trading, and approach it with a range - bound mindset without chasing highs or lows [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased week - on - week, and the overall inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline. The inventory of hot - rolled coils is still significantly higher than the historical average, while the de - stocking pressure for threaded rods is relatively small. This week, the apparent demand has declined overall, indicating a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the passing of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. The sharp drop in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel is still in a range - bound trend. After a significant gap - down opening, it rebounded but has not broken out of the recent trading range [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly. If the market continues to fall and forms a new downward trend, consider reducing or closing positions. Do not short at the current position [2]. - **Data Summary**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils, as well as most spot prices, have declined compared to last week. The blast furnace operating rate, average daily hot metal output, and the proportion of profitable steel mills have all decreased. The production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils has declined, and the overall inventory of the five major steel products has decreased, but the inventory of hot - rolled coils in steel mills has increased. The apparent demand has declined, and the number of registered futures warehouse receipts has decreased [3]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, hot metal production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. Steel mill production cuts are putting pressure on raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [5]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories is suppressing futures prices. The building steel bar production license system and the inclusion of some steel products in export license management will affect exports next year, putting relatively greater pressure on iron ore [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract of iron ore has not broken out of the wide - range trading pattern at a relatively high level [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly for medium - term trading. Approach it with a range - bound mindset and avoid chasing highs or lows [5]. - **Data Summary**: The settlement prices of most iron ore contracts and spot prices have declined compared to last week. The shipment volume from Australia has increased, while that from Brazil has decreased. The arrival volume at northern ports has decreased, the average daily port clearance volume has decreased slightly, and the total port inventory has increased. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills has decreased [5]. 3.3. Industry News - In early December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1869 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 186.9 million tons (a 2.8% increase in daily output month - on - month); 1714 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 171.4 million tons (a 3.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month); and 1829 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 182.9 million tons (a 12.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month) [7]. - From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2928.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 358.9 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2723.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 242.9 million tons; and at six northern ports, it was 1358.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.8 million tons [7]. - From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3592.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 224.0 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2965.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 310.2 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 2052.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 85.2 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1702.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 113.9 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 912.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 225.0 million tons [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - China's total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports reached 29.281 million tons, an increase of 3.589 million tons week-on-week [1] - Total iron ore arrivals at 45 ports in China were 27.234 million tons, up by 2.429 million tons week-on-week [1] - Global iron ore shipments totaled 35.925 million tons, increasing by 2.240 million tons week-on-week [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global iron ore shipments are expected to remain strong, maintaining seasonal highs, while domestic port inventories continue to rise, reaching a new annual high [2] - The average daily port throughput is 3.192 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.074 million tons [1] - Steel mills are experiencing poor profitability, leading to a seasonal reduction in iron production [2] Group 3: Price and Market Sentiment - The iron ore market is currently characterized by a loose supply-demand balance, with short-term price fluctuations influenced by market sentiment and capital speculation [3] - The current trading logic has returned to fundamental drivers, with short-term iron ore prices expected to show weak fluctuations [3] - The structural increase in port storage costs may accelerate the flow of related spot transactions [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. The fundamentals of rebar are improving, while the inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils has slowed down. At the end of the week, the raw material side faced downward pressure, slightly dragging down the finished products. Although steel prices are currently under pressure from raw materials and are expected to weaken in the short term, the overall decline is limited. Iron ore and coking coal are also under pressure and are expected to continue their weak performance [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review Last week, the five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The fundamentals of rebar continued to improve, and the inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils slowed down. The overall contradiction in finished products was limited. At the end of the week, the raw material side declined under pressure, slightly dragging down the finished products. The weekly steel prices still showed a relatively strong overall trend [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar production decreased significantly, with both blast furnace and electric furnace production decreasing. The national rebar weekly output was 189.31 tons (down 8.14% week-on-week and 14.91% year-on-year). The national hot-rolled coil weekly output was 314.31 tons (down 1.47% week-on-week and 0.85% year-on-year). The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates both decreased month-on-month [15][21][26]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils increased week-on-week. The rebar profit was +34 yuan/ton (up 46 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 1 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the hot-rolled coil profit was -22 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 49 yuan/ton year-on-year) [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils both showed a slight decline. The apparent consumption of rebar was 216.98 tons (down 4.81% week-on-week and 8.70% year-on-year), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 314.86 tons (down 1.67% week-on-week and 0.70% year-on-year) [35]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased at an accelerated pace, with both factory and social inventories showing a decline. The inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils slowed down, with a slight decrease in social inventory and a slight increase in factory inventory [39][44]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, both commercial housing sales and the land market showed a month-on-month decline. In the automotive sector, production and sales in October continued to increase both month-on-month and year-on-year [48][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the arrival volume continued to decline month-on-month. The iron ore price index was 107.04 (up 0.77% week-on-week and 0.71% year-on-year), the shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2655.3 tons (down 4% week-on-week and up 4.7% year-on-year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2480.5 tons (down 8.11% week-on-week and 1.46% year-on-year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and the port clearance volume decreased. The daily output of hot metal was 232.3 tons (down 2.38 tons week-on-week and 0.31 tons year-on-year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 318.45 tons (down 3.67% week-on-week and 1.52% year-on-year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory continued to increase, and the steel enterprises' iron ore inventory also increased. The inventory at 45 ports was 15300.81 tons (up 0.60% week-on-week and 1.22% year-on-year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8984.73 tons (up 0.47% week-on-week and down 4.13% year-on-year) [70]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines decreased slightly month-on-month, but the Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a relatively high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.59% (down 0.48% week-on-week and 6.14% year-on-year), and the daily average of Mongolian coal customs clearance was 19.08 tons (down 3.75% week-on-week and up 139% year-on-year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of coking enterprises decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was +30 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton week-on-week and up 21 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.64% (up 0.86% week-on-week and down 1.48% year-on-year) [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the coking plant inventory decreased slightly. The coking coal inventory in independent coking plants was 857.26 tons (down 0.43% week-on-week and up 4.26% year-on-year), and the port inventory of coking coal was 296.5 tons (up 0.68% week-on-week and down 34.68% year-on-year) [90]. - **Coke Inventory**: The port inventory continued to decline, and the coking plant inventory decreased simultaneously. The coke inventory in independent coking plants was 44.69 tons (down 1.15% week-on-week and 0.47% year-on-year), and the port inventory of coke was 181.3 tons (down 3.26% week-on-week and up 7.79% year-on-year) [96]. - **Spot Price**: The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1500 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton week-on-week and 60 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the ex-factory price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Handan was 1490 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton week-on-week and 170 yuan/ton year-on-year) [102]. 05 Spread Analysis The basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils continued to shrink, and the 1-5 spread of hot-rolled coils also shrank. The coil-to-rebar spread continued to shrink, and the 1-5 spread of iron ore shrank slightly [104][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, in the off - season of consumption, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is still high, but the market's expectation for the policy side has increased. Technically, the futures price of steel is oscillating upwards at a low level and may form an upward breakthrough. It is recommended to go long with a light position, add a small amount of positions on pullbacks, and hold the positions in the medium - term [2]. - For the iron ore market, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, the iron ore demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will suppress the raw material prices. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price, but the policy side provides support. Technically, the 01 - contract futures price has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Band, but it is still in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level. It is recommended to go long with a light position and add positions on short - term pullbacks [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the thread production decreased, the hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of the five major varieties increased month - on - month. The overall inventory continued to decline, but the hot - rolled coil inventory was still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, with greater inventory pressure compared to thread. This week, the apparent demand declined moderately. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, the steel mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a phased negative feedback cycle. Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke have also shown signs of weakening, weakening the cost support for steel [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long with a light position, add a small amount of positions on pullbacks, and hold the positions in the medium - term [2]. - **Data**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 2.26% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3324 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill thread steel production was 206.08 tons, down 0.90% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production was 319.01 tons, up 0.95% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties was 1007.32 tons, down 2.15% from last week; the thread social inventory was 384.75 tons, down 3.82% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory was 322.88 tons, down 0.37% from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of demand, last week, the iron ore output of sample steel mills decreased significantly month - on - month. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, the iron ore demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will suppress the raw material prices. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipments have rebounded from the high level, and the arrival volume is expected to increase after a period. Currently, the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price, and the slow inventory reduction of steel also suppresses the overall market sentiment, but the policy side provides support [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long with a light position and add positions on short - term pullbacks [4]. - **Data**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 799.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.83% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - one contract was 104.2 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.31% from last week [4]. - **Shipment**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1653.8 tons, down 1.37% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 822.8 tons, up 15.50% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory was 15210.12 tons, up 1.03% from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 10280.7 tons, up 1.58% from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was successfully sent out, marking that this world - class iron ore mine that has been dormant for nearly 30 years has officially opened up the entire industrial chain channel of "mine - railway - port - shipping" [6]. - In October, the national stainless steel crude steel output was 3.6244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons or 2.22% [7]. - In November, 42 national building materials production enterprises carried out production reduction and maintenance, 9 more than the previous month. The production reduction and maintenance in November affected the iron ore output by 437,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 125.52%; it affected the crude steel output by 697,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.19% [7]. - As of the week ending December 3, the national building materials output was 4.3509 million tons, a decrease of 65,800 tons from last week; the social inventory was 4.4779 million tons, a decrease of 231,700 tons from last week; the total inventory was 8.2315 million tons, a decrease of 419,800 tons from last week; the apparent demand was 4.7707 million tons, a decrease of 49,600 tons from last week [7].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货铁矿石月报 淡季终端需求拖累，矿价承压运行 20251130 作者：曾可 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 交易咨询号：Z0022773 审核：段福林，从业资格号：F3048935，交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 供应：最近一期全球铁矿发运量环比有所回落，2025年11月17日-11月23日，全球铁矿石发运总量环比减少238万吨至 3278.4万吨。其中，澳洲19港发运1804.4万吨，周环比降181 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel sector, due to a significant decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal prices have also shown signs of weakness, weakening the cost support for steel. Technically, steel futures prices are oscillating at low levels, and the oscillation range is narrowing, hinting at a potential breakout [2]. - For the iron ore sector, as the off - season for consumption approaches, iron ore production is expected to decline along the seasonal trend, and steel mills' output reduction will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have rebounded from the peak, and port inventory is rising, which suppresses the futures prices. The slow destocking of steel also dampens market sentiment. Technically, the 01 contract price has broken through the middle - track of the Bollinger Bands but faces resistance from a dense trading area [4]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils Supply and Demand - Last week, the apparent demand for threaded steel increased month - on - month, production rose, and overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coils remained significantly higher than the historical average, with greater inventory pressure [2]. - The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 82.81%, down 0.32 percentage points; the average daily hot metal output was 236.28 million tons, down 0.60 million tons (0.25%); the proportion of profitable steel mills was 37.66%, down 1.30 percentage points [3]. - The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 207.96 million tons, up 7.96 million tons (3.98%); hot - rolled coil production was 316.01 million tons, up 2.35 million tons (0.75%) [3]. - The five - major steel product social inventory was 1029.41 million tons, down 31.98 million tons (3.01%); threaded steel social inventory was 400.02 million tons, down 15.73 million tons (3.78%); hot - rolled coil social inventory was 324.09 million tons, down 8.91 million tons (2.68%) [3]. Price and Basis - The closing price of the threaded steel futures main contract was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day (1.05%) and down 8 yuan from last week (- 0.26%); the closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day (0.76%) and down 7 yuan from last week (- 0.21%) [3]. - The threaded steel main contract basis was 151 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the hot - rolled coil main contract basis was - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. Operation Suggestion Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for a pullback before going long for medium - term trading [2]. 2. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, the sample steel mills' hot metal production decreased month - on - month, while the output of the five major steel products increased. As the off - season approaches, iron ore production is likely to decline seasonally, and steel mills' output reduction will suppress raw material prices [4]. - Global iron ore shipments have rebounded from the peak, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices, and the slow destocking of steel dampens market sentiment [4]. Price and Basis - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 790.5 yuan/dry ton, up 5.0 yuan from the previous day (0.64%) and up 2.0 yuan from last week (0.25%) [4]. - The DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was - 52.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3.0 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 28 yuan/dry ton, down 3.0 yuan [4]. Operation Suggestion Maintain a wait - and - see approach. Wait patiently for a price pullback before entering the market to go long for medium - term trading [4]. 3. Industry News - Due to heavy snow at the Ganqimao Port on the 24th, the outbound transportation in the domestic direction stopped at around 14:00. The number of customs - cleared vehicles on the 24th is expected to be less than 1000 [6]. - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3278.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 238.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2637.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 271.3 million tons [6]. - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2939.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 569.6 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2817.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 548.2 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 1438.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 397.0 million tons [6]. - Two coal mines in Linfen Ancient County stopped production on November 20th - 21st, with a total approved capacity of 2.4 million tons, mainly producing coking coal. The pre - shutdown daily output of raw coal was 10,000 tons, and the resumption time is yet to be determined [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,000 tons (2.5%), showing a continuous downward trend [7].