Report's Investment Rating for the Industry There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3, the cumulative global iron ore shipments turned positive year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in Chinese imports [1]. - Among the Big Four mines, FMG and Vale had strong shipments, while Rio Tinto's shipments this year may be at the lower end of the guidance target. However, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged, so the iron ore supply will still be strong in Q4 [1]. - With a strong iron ore supply and negative feedback from finished products on the demand side, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and port inventories are increasing. The subsequent trend this year will be sideways with limited upside potential [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Shipments - As of Q3 2025, global iron ore shipments reached 1.20 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. The increase in Q3 shipments (422 million tons) was mainly due to a significant increase in Chinese imports (326 million tons) [2]. - Structurally, as of Q3, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1.00 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, while those from non-Australia and Brazil regions were 200 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51% [4]. - As of September, China's cumulative iron ore imports were 919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.05%. In the first eight months, cumulative imports were negative year-on-year, but imports increased in the second half of the year due to higher steel mill profits and strong demand [4]. - In the first three quarters, China imported 560 million tons of iron ore from Australia, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, accounting for 61% of the total imports, and 196 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 21% [7]. 2. Big Four Mines 2.1 Summary of Supply in the First Three Quarters - As of mid-October 2025, the cumulative shipments of the Big Four mines were 877 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%. FMG had the largest increase, Vale's shipments increased slightly year-on-year, while BHP and Rio Tinto's shipments decreased [8]. Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target. The shipments from its Pilbara mining area increased significantly in Q3, but its shipments in the first three quarters decreased year-on-year due to the impact of a hurricane in Q1 [11]. - The grades of PB fines and lumps decreased. In Q3, the shipments of PB fines and lumps increased significantly, while those of SP fines and lumps decreased significantly [13]. - The progress of the Simandou project (designed capacity of 60 million tons/year) exceeded expectations. It is expected to load the first batch of iron ore in October and ship in November, earlier than expected by one month. The capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2026 [14]. FMG - FMG's production and sales increased year-on-year, and the guidance target remained unchanged. In Q3, its production was 50.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and shipments were 49.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [16]. - The guidance target for shipments in the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged at 195 - 205 million tons, and the C1 cost target remained unchanged at $17.5 - $18.5 per wet ton [16]. BHP - BHP's Q3 shipments decreased, and the guidance target remained unchanged. Its Q3 production in Western Australia was 70.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, mainly affected by the reconstruction of the Car Dumper 3 project at Port Hedland [19]. - The guidance target for the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged, about 2 million tons higher than that of the 2025 fiscal year. The average iron ore selling price in Q3 2025 was $84.04 per ton, a 5% increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [21]. Vale - Vale had strong production and sales in Q3. Its Q3 iron ore production was 94.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, mainly due to the production increase in the S11D in the northern system, Minas Centrais in the southeastern system, and Vargem Grande in the southern system [23]. - Vale's Q3 sales were 86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. It adjusted its product strategy, reducing the sales of high-grade IOCJ fines by 52% year-on-year and increasing the sales of medium-grade fines such as Brazilian Blend and Carajas fines [23]. 2.2 Outlook for Future Supply - Overall, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged. Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target, while Vale's production is moving towards the upper end of the target, and FMG has strong production and sales. Therefore, it is expected that the mine shipments will still be strong in Q4, and there will be some supply pressure on iron ore [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Domestic Supply - As of September, China's cumulative production of iron ore raw ore was 761 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%. The cumulative production of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 207 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.13%. China's demand for iron elements is highly dependent on imports [26]. 3.2 Demand - As of the end of September, the cumulative crude steel production was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89%, and the cumulative steel production was 1.104 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.68%. The cumulative iron ore production of 247 sample steel enterprises was 648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [27]. - As steel mills have a certain profit margin, the iron ore production remains high, supporting the demand for iron ore. However, the weak demand for finished products is expected to reduce the demand for iron ore in the future [27]. 3.3 Inventory - Due to the contradiction between the strong supply and weak demand of iron ore, the port iron ore inventory has been continuously increasing, with certain inventory pressure. The steel mill inventory is currently maintained at around 90 million tons, and the overall inventory is at a low level [31]. - At the port end, due to the high inventory pressure last year, the year-on-year import of iron ore decreased in the early part of this year, and the port inventory continued to decline. However, with the recovery of steel mill profits and the increase in foreign ore shipments, the port has started to gradually accumulate inventory, and the current inventory is 150 million tons, with certain inventory pressure [33]. 4. Future Outlook - In the context of weak demand for finished products, the decline of iron ore in the first half of the year was smaller than that of coking coal and coke. After June, the prices of coking coal and coke continued to rise, while the increase of iron ore was less than that of coking coal and coke [34]. - Looking forward, this year's crude steel reduction is expected to be mainly through the independent production cuts of steel mills. The policy space for the demand side of finished products may be limited in the future. The supply side of iron ore remains strong, while the demand continues to weaken. Therefore, it is expected that iron ore will remain sideways in the future, but the upside potential is limited [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply - demand expectation of iron ore has marginally eased, and the valuation has declined from a high level [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore View - Supply: Overseas mines still have the driving force to boost shipments at the end of the year, and the market still expects more mainstream ore shipment increments in the future [5]. - Demand: The decline of hot metal production has accelerated recently, and the market's expectation of negative feedback from the industrial end has increased [5]. - Macro - level: Recently, the domestic policy has been relatively quiet, and the macro - risk preferences at home and abroad have diverged, which restricts the further upward breakthrough of the valuation of domestic risk assets to some extent [5]. - Logic summary: With the increasing inventory pressure of downstream finished products and the end of the demand peak season, the decline of blast furnace operation rate of downstream steel mills has accelerated. The market's concern about potential negative feedback has also increased. Coupled with the relatively loose supply increment, the inventory accumulation speed of domestic iron ore ports has also accelerated. Considering the demand pressure on raw materials and the relatively tight fundamentals of coking coal and coke, the iron ore valuation has dropped significantly to transfer profits to other varieties in the steel chain [5]. 3.2 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 760.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 559,000 lots, an increase of 19,100 lots. The average daily trading volume was 331,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 4,700 lots [7]. 3.3 Spot Price Performance - Spot prices also dropped significantly. For example, the price of Caffey (64.5%) decreased from 913 yuan/ton last week to 878 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton [11]. 3.4 Iron Ore Supply - Side 3.4.1 Mainstream Ore - Overseas shipments decreased month - on - month but were still at a high level year - on - year. Vale showed a trend of increasing shipments recently [15][17]. 3.4.2 Non - mainstream Ore - Canada's recent shipments increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [19]. 3.4.3 Domestic Mines - The operating rate in the southwest region fluctuated again [28]. 3.5 Iron Ore Demand - Side 3.5.1 Downstream - The decline of hot metal production accelerated recently, and the production of five major steel products changed from an increase to a decrease [31]. 3.5.2 Substitution Effect of Scrap Steel - As the iron ore price drove the overall decline of raw material costs, the scrap - hot metal price difference rebounded after reaching a phased bottom [34]. 3.6 Iron Ore Inventory - Side - The inventory accumulation at domestic ports accelerated [38][39]. 3.7 Downstream Profit - The disk profit of steel products rebounded after reaching a bottom [41]. 3.8 Spot Category Price Difference - The price of PB powder has been relatively strong recently, and the price differences such as Caffey - PB, PB - Super Special, and PB lump - powder have shown a certain regression trend [43]. 3.9 Disk Monthly Spread - The decline of near - month contracts was relatively large, and the monthly spreads of 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 narrowed slightly [45]. 3.10 Basis Performance - The futures price corrected significantly this week, and the basis increased month - on - month [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Looking ahead to November, on the supply side, overseas shipments in October continued to be strong, with a significant increase in arrivals. Shipments are expected to decline month-on-month in November. On the demand side, since late October, affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and a sharp decline in steel mill profits, the daily average pig iron output has fallen below 2.4 million tons. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the terminal data is weak. It is expected that the pig iron output in November will continue to decline compared to October, and the supply and demand of iron ore are expected to weaken. In terms of inventory, the accumulation of port inventory has intensified, and inventory pressure is still expected in November. Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session was held in late October, and progress was made in the China-US economic and trade consultations at the end of the month, with a meeting between the two heads of state, giving certain positive signals. During this period, the iron ore price rebounded periodically. After the macro enters a short-term vacuum period, it is expected that the futures market logic will return to the industrial reality, and the iron ore price will face downward pressure [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In October, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 32.8444 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,700 tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 15.8964 million tons, a decrease of 194,600 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.486 million tons, an increase of 955,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.8428 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2283 million tons [13]. - **Demand**: The estimated daily average domestic pig iron output in October was 2.3989 million tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 5.6469 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1888 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9667 million tons, an increase of 316,000 tons from the previous month [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Difference**: At the end of October, the price difference between PB and Super Special powder was 93 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 22 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás and PB powder was 110 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás and Jinbuba powder was 169 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The price difference between (Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 and PB powder was 8.5 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 25.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of October, the pelletizing feed ratio was 14.92%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.3%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The sinter feed ratio was 72.78%, with no change from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of October, the profitability rate of steel mills was 45.02%, a decrease of 12.99 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 5.6469 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 2.8692 million tons, an increase of 82,700 tons from the end of the previous month. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 11.5383 million tons, an increase of 707,700 tons from the end of the previous month. The lump ore inventory was 18.623 million tons, an increase of 1.4017 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Australian ore port inventory was 60.174 million tons, a change of 1.0121 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 57.4387 million tons, an increase of 3.8935 million tons from the end of the previous month [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 88.4986 million tons, a decrease of 8.8653 million tons from the end of the previous month [45]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In October, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 15.8964 million tons, a decrease of 194,600 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.486 million tons, an increase of 955,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 6.8054 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 58,400 tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.6104 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,600 tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 6.2686 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 870,100 tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.8316 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 306,900 tons [50][53][56]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: In October, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.8428 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2283 million tons. In September, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 18.5836 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6846 million tons [59]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of October, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 60.96%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 476,400 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the end of the previous month [62]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Pig Iron Output and Blast Furnace Utilization**: The estimated domestic pig iron output in October was 74.3668 million tons, with a daily average of 2.3989 million tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous month. At the end of October, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the end of the previous month [67]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In October, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1888 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9667 million tons, an increase of 316,000 tons from the previous month [70]. 3.6 Basis As of October 31, the estimated basis of the iron ore BRBF main contract was 67.35 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 7.83% [75].

Group 1: Report Summary - The current global iron ore shipment volume decreased month-on-month, with both Australian and Brazilian ores showing a slight decline. Meanwhile, the arrival volume increased significantly, and the domestic iron ore production fluctuated slightly. Overall, the supply is relatively loose. On the demand side, affected by environmental protection and profit decline, the molten iron production decreased significantly. As the terminal demand gradually weakens, the future demand will continue to decline. In general, the current iron ore supply and demand are gradually weakening, and the peak season is coming to an end. Coupled with the implementation of macro policies, it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of terminal demand. The strategy is to expect range-bound fluctuations [4][5]. Group 2: Price and Spread - The spot price rebounded with fluctuations [6]. - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder rebounded from a low level, and the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder also rebounded from a low level [12][16]. - The 1-5 spread rebounded slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract fluctuated at a low level [20]. - The screw-ore ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the ore-coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [27]. Group 3: Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly, and the shipment volume of non-mainstream ores fluctuated slightly [33]. - The shipment volume of Australian ore to China and Brazilian ore both decreased slightly [37]. - The shipment volume of FMG to China decreased, while that of BHP increased slightly [42]. - The shipment volume of RT and VALE both increased slightly [46]. - The shipping freight index fluctuated slightly [50]. - The arrival volume increased significantly [54]. - The production of domestic iron ore concentrate changed little [57]. Group 4: Demand - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces continued to weaken [63]. - The profitability of steel mills declined, and the molten iron production decreased significantly [69]. Group 5: Inventory - The port clearance volume increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise [78]. - The inventory of Australian ore increased slightly, and the inventory of Brazilian ore fluctuated at a high level [82]. - The inventory of coarse powder fluctuated at a high level, and the inventory of lump ore decreased slightly [88]. - The consumption of steel mills decreased from a high level, and the inventory of imported ore decreased from a low level [96].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Supply and Demand Slightly Weaken, Futures Market Ranges" - Iron Ore Weekly Report 20251027 [2] - Analyst: Zhou Guisheng [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The current iron ore supply and demand situation is slightly weak, and it will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term. The report suggests a range - bound trading strategy and advises to pay attention to changes in macro sentiment [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Trading Logic - **Supply**: From October 20th - 26th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3388.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.8 million tons. Australian shipments were 1984.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 million tons, while Brazilian shipments were 941.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2029.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 490.2 million tons. As of October 24th, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 47.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07%. Mine concentrate inventory was 91.62 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72 million tons [5] - **Demand**: In the week of October 24th, the daily average pig iron output was 239.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 million tons. The profitability rate dropped significantly this period, and pig iron output continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level. There was some rigid demand for restocking support, but the steel mills' profitability continued to shrink, and market expectations weakened [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of imported ore increased this period, and the number of ships at the port decreased by 17 to 107. The congestion situation decreased significantly, and the inventory transferred to the port, increasing the port inventory pressure. Steel mills' inventory remained at a low level [5] - **Basis**: The basis of contracts 01 and 05 fluctuated slightly [5] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills declined, and the price of imported ore fluctuated in the range of $100 - 105 per ton [5] 3.2 Price and Spread - **Price**: Spot prices fluctuated slightly [7] - **Ore Powder Spread**: The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder, as well as the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder, were both in low - level oscillations [13][17] - **Contract Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread did not fluctuate much, and the basis of contract 01 oscillated at a low level [21] - **Relative Valuation**: The rebar - ore ratio oscillated at a low level, and the ore - coke ratio oscillated downward [28] 3.3 Supply Details - Global shipments increased slightly, and non - mainstream ore shipments also increased slightly [34] - Australian ore shipments to China decreased slightly, while Brazilian ore shipments continued to increase [38] - FMG shipments to China decreased, while BHP shipments increased slightly [42] - RT and VALE shipments both increased slightly [46] - The freight rate index fluctuated slightly [50] - The arrival volume continued to decline [54] - The output of domestic iron concentrate changed little [57] 3.4 Demand Details - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces rebounded at a low level [63] - The profitability rate of steel mills decreased, and pig iron output decreased [69] 3.5 Inventory Details - The port's ore handling volume decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to increase [78] - The inventory of Australian ore increased slightly, and the inventory of Brazilian ore continued to increase [82] - The coarse powder inventory oscillated at a high level, and the lump ore inventory continued to increase [89] - Steel mills' consumption decreased slowly at a high level, and the inventory of imported ore remained at a low level [97]

Group 1: Shipping and Supply Data - Global iron ore shipments totaled 32.075 million tons from October 6 to October 12, a decrease of 0.715 million tons week-on-week [1] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 27.31 million tons, down by 0.949 million tons week-on-week [1] - Australian shipments were 19.163 million tons, a decrease of 0.636 million tons, with shipments to China at 15.845 million tons, down by 0.767 million tons [1] - Brazilian shipments were 8.147 million tons, down by 0.313 million tons week-on-week [1] Group 2: Company Reports - Rio Tinto reported a third-quarter production and sales update, indicating that 13 million tons of iron ore shipments were affected by a hurricane in Q1, with recovery expected to reach only about half [1] - The company expects its Pilbara iron ore shipments for 2025 to be at the lower end of the guidance target range of 323-338 million tons [1] Group 3: Market Insights - Recent data shows a significant increase in iron ore transactions at major national ports, with 0.952 million tons traded, an increase of 88.14% week-on-week [2] - The near-term supply remains ample, with stable iron production and resilient demand for iron ore, despite a slight increase in port inventories [3][4] - Steel mills are expected to have a certain level of replenishment demand post-holiday, contributing to a short-term resilience in iron ore prices, which are currently in a fluctuating trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), the market is expected to be weak and fluctuate at a low level. Although the high daily output of hot metal provides support for raw materials, the demand after the holiday is cautious, and the inventory accumulation during the National Day holiday and the pressure from mid - month delivery affect the market. The downward space for steel prices is relatively limited [3]. - For iron ore, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply has increased in stages, the daily output of hot metal remains high, and the inventory pressure is limited. The price is more easily affected by the macro and news [4]. - For coking coal and coke, they are expected to be weak and fluctuate. The high daily output of hot metal provides support, but short - term risks such as trade tariffs and terminal delivery inventory pressure need to be vigilant [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - After the holiday, the demand was average, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level. During the holiday, the spot market had prices but no transactions, and the demand was weak. The five major steel products showed traditional inventory accumulation, with the social inventory of hot - rolled coil slightly exceeding the historical average. After the holiday, although prices were under pressure, the high hot - metal output supported raw materials [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar decreased to 203.4 tons (down 1.75% month - on - month and 13.91% year - on - year), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil slightly declined to 323.29 tons (down 0.43% month - on - month and up 4.90% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar decreased. The blast furnace operating rate remained stable, and the electric furnace operating rate slightly increased. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined [16][18][23]. - **Demand**: Affected by the holiday, the apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased significantly. The apparent consumption of rebar was 153.18 tons (down 36.46% month - on - month and 40.59% year - on - year), and that of hot - rolled coil was 295.01 tons (down 9.12% month - on - month and 6.63% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: The rebar inventory increased from a decreasing trend, with both factory and social inventories accumulating. The total rebar inventory was 659.64 tons (up 9.53% month - on - month and 49.63% year - on - year). The hot - rolled coil inventory increased significantly, mainly in social inventory, with a total inventory of 412.9 tons (up 8.49% month - on - month and 7.72% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land decreased month - on - month. In the automotive market, in August 2025, the production and sales of automobiles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly to 26.665 million tons (down 2.23% month - on - month and up 7.02% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased to 30.458 million tons (up 16.76% month - on - month and 3.29% year - on - year) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 2.4154 million tons (down 0.27 tons month - on - month and up 8.46 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased slightly to 3.27 million tons (down 2.79% month - on - month and up 0.61% year - on - year) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased slightly to 140.245 million tons (up 0.17% month - on - month and down 8.32% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 90.4619 million tons (down 9.87% month - on - month and up 0.68% year - on - year) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines decreased to 81.89% (down 5.33% month - on - month and 6.11% year - on - year), and the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased to 177,300 tons (down 3.38% month - on - month and up 62.10% year - on - year). The independent coking plant's ton - coke profit increased to 9 yuan/ton, and the capacity utilization rate remained stable [77][85]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal remained at a high level, which provided support for coking coal and coke [5]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants decreased to 8.1913 million tons (down 7.80% month - on - month and up 11.80% year - on - year), and the port inventory remained unchanged. The coke inventory of independent coking plants increased to 425,400 tons (up 9.05% month - on - month and 13.56% year - on - year), and the port inventory increased slightly [91][97]. - **Spot Price**: The first - round price increase of coke was implemented during the holiday, and the game between steel and coke continued. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi decreased, while the ex - factory price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Handan increased [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar slightly shrank, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated narrowly. The coil - to - rebar spread fluctuated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal and coke slightly shrank [105][111].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The iron ore market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Although the demand for iron ore is currently good and transportation costs have increased, supporting high - level prices, the supply is high and the demand resilience is weakening, so the upward driving force of high - valued iron ore prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillating, and the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand performs well and the ore price remains at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production is stabilizing, and the rigid demand for ore is good, which supports the ore price. However, contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the positive effect will weaken. - Domestic port ore arrivals have reached a new high for the year, while miners' shipments have slightly declined from the high level. Overseas ore supply is active at high prices, and domestic ore supply is also recovering after the holiday, increasing supply pressure. - Currently, the ore demand is good, and the increase in transportation costs has an impact. Positive factors support the high - level operation of ore prices. But the supply is high and the demand resilience is weakening, and the fundamentals are expected to deteriorate, limiting the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production is stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of ore remains high. This week, the daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills showed mixed changes, with overall changes being small. The demand for ore is performing well, but industrial contradictions in the steel market are continuously accumulating, and its resilience is expected to weaken, resulting in a limited positive effect. - Domestic port arrivals increased week - on - week, while overseas miners' shipments declined, but both are at annual highs. Overseas miners are actively shipping at high ore prices, and with the recovery of domestic ore supply after the holiday, the supply pressure of ore is increasing. - Overall, the demand for ore is good, and the positive sentiment in commodities after the holiday supports ore prices. However, supply remains high, and demand resilience is weakening. The fundamentals of the ore market are expected to deteriorate, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, it is expected that ore prices will maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 14,024.50, with a week - on - week increase of 46.71, a monthly increase of 46.71, and a year - on - year decrease of 1,081.43. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,046.19, with a week - on - week decrease of 990.60, a monthly decrease of 990.60, and a year - on - year increase of 60.89 [1]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,608.70, with a week - on - week increase of 248.20, a monthly increase of 248.20, and a year - on - year increase of 650.00. - Global 19 - port iron ore shipments are 3,279.00, with a week - on - week decrease of 196.40, a monthly decrease of 196.40, and a year - on - year increase of 297.80 [1]. Demand - 247 steel mills' daily average pig iron output is 241.54, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.27, a monthly decrease of 0.27, and a year - on - year increase of 8.46. - 45 - port daily average ore removal volume is 327.00, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.40, a monthly decrease of 9.40, and a year - on - year increase of 1.99. - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 299.14, with a week - on - week increase of 0.34, a monthly increase of 0.34, and a year - on - year increase of 10.99. - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions is 98.00, with a week - on - week increase of 58.63, a monthly increase of 58.63, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.24 [1].

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures are showing a strong performance, with the main contract slightly up by 0.89% to 794.0 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 1: Project Developments - Macro Metals announced that its Extension iron ore project in Western Australia is actively progressing, aiming for "excavation readiness" by 2026. The project has indicated resources of 161 million tons with an average iron grade of approximately 54.2%, and an annual production capacity of 2-4 million tons [2] Group 2: Inventory and Consumption Statistics - The total imported iron ore inventory at 45 national ports is 140.245 million tons, an increase of 242,200 tons month-on-month. The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 146.411 million tons, up by 904,000 tons month-on-month [2] - The total imported iron ore inventory at steel mills is 90.462 million tons, a decrease of 9.906 million tons month-on-month. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills is 2.9914 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons month-on-month, with a stock-to-consumption ratio of 30.24 days, down by 3.35 days [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - According to Guoxin Futures, the supply and demand for iron ore are both strong. The demand side is supported by high steel production, maintaining robust iron ore demand. However, there is an expectation of reduced production from steel mills due to high inventory pressure, which may put some pressure on iron ore demand. Supply is expected to increase, leading to a relatively weak outlook for iron ore [3] - Zhongzhou Futures noted that the weekly production and consumption of the five major materials have decreased, leading to an accumulation of total inventory. Although pig iron production has slightly decreased, it remains at a high level, with port inventories accumulating. Real estate sales and construction data remain poor, while steel exports show resilience but face trade protection from some countries. From January to August, both imported and domestic iron ore have decreased year-on-year [3]