1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the delivery of the SHFE lead 2511 contract ended, some delivered lead returned to the spot market, causing lead prices to fluctuate and decline. With no obvious improvement in consumption and a slight weakening of cost - side support, it is expected that lead prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downside space is limited. Previous short positions should pay attention to profit protection. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter operations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1.1 Market Review - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots decreased by 2.01% month - on - month to 17,075 yuan/ton. The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract decreased by 1.89% to 17,165 yuan/ton. The LME lead closing price (electronic trading) dropped by 3.73% to 1,989 US dollars/ton [15]. 2.1 Tight Ore Supply Pattern Persists, TC Declining - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat month - on - month at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore supply remains unchanged, and due to the high - level volatility of precious metal prices, the TC quotation is stable but trending downwards. Smelter profits are good, and as of November 14, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 308.2 yuan/ton [38]. 2.2 Primary Lead Operating Rate Slightly Increased to 67.7% - The primary lead operating rate increased slightly month - on - month to 67.7%. The production of major deliverable brands of primary lead in China showed certain changes, with the total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelters being 49,850 tons in the week of November 14, 49,550 tons in the week of November 21, and an expected 49,650 tons this week [39][44]. 3.1 Scrap Battery Prices Weakened - As of November 21, the average price of scrap batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. During the week, lead prices fluctuated and declined, and some smelters lowered their scrap battery quotes, weakening the cost support. Considering that battery scrapping is gradually entering the off - season and the number of recyclers is decreasing, it is expected that scrap battery prices may have an upward adjustment expectation [53]. 3.1 Recycled Lead Smelter Profits Declined - As of November 21, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 169 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 43 yuan/ton. The decline in lead prices from a high level and the limited decline in scrap battery prices squeezed the profits of recycled lead smelters [59]. 3.2 Recycled Lead Raw Material Inventory Increased, Finished Product Inventory Decreased - As of November 20, the recycled lead raw material inventory was 158,900 tons, showing a month - on - month increase, and the recycled lead finished product inventory was 2,380 tons. Currently, the restarted recycled lead enterprises are still in the production ramping - up stage, and due to long - term order deliveries, the volume of spot goods is limited. Downstream enterprises maintain just - in - time replenishment, making it difficult to accumulate recycled lead finished product inventory [62]. 3.3 Recycled Lead Operating Rate Increased - The recycled lead enterprise operating rate increased by 2.3 percentage points month - on - month to 50.5%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of recycled lead was 60,100 tons, showing an increase. The environmental control in Henan was lifted, and raw material arrivals improved, leading to an increase in the local operating rate. This week, considering that a smelter in Anhui needs to temporarily stop production for the replacement of its hazardous waste business license, the smelter operating rate will decline [65]. 4 Lead Battery Operating Rate Remained Stable - The lead battery operating rate remained flat month - on - month at 70.56%. There was no obvious change in the terminal market, and the battery operating rate was stable. By segment, the electric bicycle battery market weakened, the electric tricycle battery market was okay, and the automotive battery market was stable. Before the recovery of new orders, it is expected that battery enterprises will maintain a production - to - order model [73]. 5 Import Profit Window May Open - As of November 14, the refined lead export loss was about 2,900 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the import profit was 10.51 yuan/ton, and the import profit window may open [84]. 6.1 Lead Ingot Inventory Declined - As of November 20, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 37,700 tons, showing a decline. The inventory of major deliverable brands of primary lead at the factory was 6,380 tons, showing a month - on - month decline. After the delivery, lead ingots returned to the spot market, and downstream enterprises made just - in - time purchases after the decline in lead prices, leading to inventory depletion [97]. 6.2 SHFE Inventory Decreased, LME Inventory Increased - As of November 21, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 38,900 tons, showing a month - on - month decrease. As of November 20, the LME inventory was 262,850 tons, showing an increase [100]. 6.3 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet for lead from July 2024 to August 2025, including data on primary lead production, recycled lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory [101].

1. Report Title and Researcher - Report Title: Lead Weekly Report: Weakening Lead-Acid Battery Consumption, Focus on the Cost Support of Secondary Lead Smelting [1] - Researcher: Chen Hansong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 [1] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 3. Core Viewpoints - With the increase in domestic secondary lead production and resumption, lead ingot supply has recovered. However, lead-acid battery consumption has weakened, and domestic lead ingot inventories have gradually increased. Under the pressure of the fundamentals, lead prices may be under pressure and run weakly. Recently, attention should still be paid to the support of secondary lead costs for lead prices [4] - Trading strategies include: the lead price may fluctuate weakly in a range; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, also temporarily wait and see [4] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic 4.1.1 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Supply Side**: This week, the processing fee for domestic lead concentrates reached 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for SMM imported lead concentrates reached -135 US dollars/dry ton. The lead concentrate market was generally stable, and the situation of tight imported ore and almost no quotes continued. In the domestic ore trading market, smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other places continued to purchase on demand. After the high silver price回调, except for individual mines accepting a small callback in processing fees to make up for the loss of smelter processing profits, most mines and smelters did not mention price adjustments for lead concentrate processing fees. The situation of production start decline in southern smelters in Jiangxi, Hunan, Yunnan and other places due to the shortage of lead concentrate supply had not eased [4] - **Smelting End**: This week, the average production rate of SMM's three provincial primary lead smelters was 67.7%, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with last week. The marginal fluctuation of the output of primary lead smelters in Henan brought a small increase; the production of smelters in Hunan and Yunnan remained stable, and the smelters that had not been fully produced before had no plans to increase production. A smelter in East China that had previously reduced production due to maintenance resumed production this week, and another smelter carried out scheduled maintenance as planned, with the recovery time to be determined. A smelter in East China whose maintenance plan was originally scheduled for the end of November will enter regular maintenance next week, but the impact on the electrolytic lead production line will be relatively limited, and there may be a slight reduction in production. The weekly start rate of SMM's four provincial secondary lead smelters was 50.52%, an increase of 2.28% compared with last week. The weekly start rate of secondary lead in Anhui changed little, but there was an expectation of a decline next week, mainly because a local smelter needed to temporarily stop production due to the replacement of the hazardous waste business license. The environmental protection control in Henan was lifted, the arrival of raw materials improved, and the disassembly volume of waste lead-acid batteries increased; coupled with the resumption of production of a small and medium-sized smelter after shutdown, the regional start rate increased by 7.11%. The production situation of smelters in Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia changed little [4] - **Consumption End**: This week, the weekly comprehensive start rate of SMM's five provincial lead-acid battery enterprises was 70.56%, basically stable compared with last week. Recently, the terminal consumption performance of the lead-acid battery market had no significant changes, and the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was relatively stable. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries had weakened, while that of electric tricycles was okay. In addition, the lead price increased in early November, and leading enterprises notified plans to raise battery prices, prompting dealers to receive goods on demand, and the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was stable. The automotive battery market was in a state of waiting for the traditional peak season. Previously, due to the increase in lead prices, dealers received goods on demand at the beginning of November, but there were no obvious signs of improvement in the terminal market. Some enterprises had actively reduced production in November. Therefore, before new orders recovered, major enterprises would maintain the production mode based on sales [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of November 20, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five places reached 37,700 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons compared with November 13; a decrease of 900 tons compared with November 17 [4] - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The lead price may fluctuate weakly in a range [4] - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see [4] - **Options**: Temporarily wait and see [4] 4.1.2 1.2 - 1.5 Other Sub - sections - These sections mainly list the data items to be analyzed, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventories, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [5][8][11][14] 4.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - This chapter lists the data items related to raw material supply, including primary raw material supply (global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, etc.) and secondary raw material supply (prices of lead-containing waste, raw material inventories of secondary lead smelters, etc.), but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [19][23][27] 4.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - This chapter lists various data items related to the smelting end, including global and domestic refined lead balance, imports and exports, profits of primary lead smelting enterprises, supply of primary and secondary lead, and total domestic lead ingot supply, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [34][41][42] 4.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - This chapter lists the data items related to demand, including lead-acid batteries, lead alloys and their plates, automobiles, motorcycles, power, and communications, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [68][71][76]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures continued to decline from a high level. The US November non - farm payroll data was postponed, increasing the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December and causing the US dollar to rise, which suppressed risk assets. After a large - scale delivery in LME, the inventory increased to over 260,000 tons, cooling down the enthusiasm of long - position funds and leading to an adjustment of lead prices at home and abroad. [3][6] - The supply of lead ore remained tight, and the low TC situation would persist for a long time. The price of waste batteries was stable with a slight downward trend. The profit of secondary lead refineries decreased, and some refineries reduced their production enthusiasm, with the possibility of new production cuts. [3][6] - On the smelting side, primary and secondary lead refineries had both production cuts and restarts. The overall refinery operating rate was expected to remain stable. On the demand side, the consumption of electric bicycles weakened, but large battery enterprises still maintained an operating rate of over 80%, and the overall demand for raw materials remained stable. [3][6][7] - Overall, the uncertainty of interest rate cuts dampened market optimism, and the large - scale delivery in LME affected long - position funds. The tight raw material supply, the increased expectation of production cuts due to compressed profits of secondary lead refineries, and the insignificant inventory accumulation provided support for lead prices. However, it was difficult to significantly boost demand in the off - season. In the short term, the market sentiment was cautious, and it was expected that Shanghai lead would weakly seek support, and attention should be paid to the performance near the lower integer - value levels. [3][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | 11/14 | 11/21 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17,495 | 17,165 | - 330 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2,066 | 1,989 | - 77 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.47 | 8.63 | 0.16 | | | SHFE Inventory | 42,790 | 38,921 | - 3,869 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 222,475 | 262,850 | 40,375 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 35,900 | 39,400 | 3,500 | Tons | | Spot Premium | - 190 | - 145 | 45 | Yuan/ton | [4] Market Review - The main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures declined from a high level, testing the support of the lower moving averages, with a weekly decline of 1.94%. On Friday night, it continued to be weak. The LME lead price also dropped significantly from a high level, affected by large - scale delivery and the strengthening of the US dollar due to the reduced expectation of interest rate cuts in December, with a weekly decline of 3.73%. [5] - In the spot market, as of November 21, the price of lead in the Shanghai market was 17,145 - 17,195 yuan/ton, at par with the SHFE 2512 contract. As lead prices continued to weaken, sellers lowered their premium quotes, and the discount of the supply from electrolytic lead plants narrowed. However, due to the falling lead prices, downstream enterprises were more hesitant, and the spot market trading became lighter. [5] - In terms of inventory, as of November 21, the LME weekly inventory was 262,850 tons, an increase of 40,375 tons from the previous week. The SHFE inventory was 38,921 tons, a decrease of 3,869 tons from the previous week. As of November 20, the social inventory in five regions monitored by SMM was 37,700 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from Monday and an increase of 2,800 tons from last Thursday. After the delivery of the current - month contract, some downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and the inventory first increased and then decreased. [6] Industry News - As of the week ending November 21, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining unchanged from the previous week. [8] - In October, the import volume of lead concentrates was 98,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.8%. The import volume of silver concentrates was 149,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The import volume of refined lead and lead products was 18,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.77% and a year - on - year increase of 79.18%. The export volume of refined lead and lead products was 3,981 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.37% and a year - on - year increase of 43.74%. [8] - A secondary lead smelting enterprise in East China was expected to shut down for the next two months due to the expiration of its hazardous waste business license and the pending approval, which might slightly weaken the weekly operating rate next week. [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is relatively abundant. After the departure of the previous main long - position holders, the lead price is still oscillating within a wide range. Given the recent weak performance of major global financial assets, the lead price is expected to be weak in the short term [11] Summaries by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.31% at 17,165 yuan/ton, with a total single - sided trading position of 75,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 17.5 to 1,997.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,075 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 5 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 264,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 85,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 28.91 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 85.3 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.21, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 10.51 yuan/ton [11] - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 40,000 tons, factory inventory was 450,000 tons, equivalent to 30.2 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.70%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the recycled end, lead waste inventory was 103,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 45,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.56% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,167,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. In October 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,507,900 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. In October 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,395,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. In October 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 1,303,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17] - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,698,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In August 2025, the global lead ore production was 383,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to August, the total global lead ore production was 3,008,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.1% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 40,000 tons, factory inventory was 450,000 tons, equivalent to 30.2 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Start - up and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.70%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In October 2025, China's primary lead production was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,186,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Material Inventory and Output**: At the recycled end, lead waste inventory was 103,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 45,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In October 2025, China's recycled lead production was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,235,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33] - **Net Exports and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 6,517,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.56%. In October 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 6,526,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40] - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16,145,200 units, and the net export weight of batteries was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43] - **Inventory Changes**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand provide support for domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63] - **Overseas Balance**: In August 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 19,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 46,900 tons [66] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 5 yuan/ton [71] - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 264,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 85,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 28.91 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 85.3 dollars/ton [74] - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.21, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 10.51 yuan/ton [77] - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of SHFE lead turned to a large net short position. The net long position of LME lead investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance is bearish [80]

Core Viewpoint - The lead futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight decline, influenced by supply shortages and demand dynamics in the battery sector [1][2] Supply Summary - Lead concentrate shortages are causing many electrolytic lead enterprises to resume production at lower-than-expected levels, although imports of crude lead and lead concentrate are anticipated to increase, gradually resolving raw material issues [1] - The recovery of recycled lead production is contributing to a slow return to balance in the overall supply [1] Demand Summary - The operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises has been increasing as maintenance and production halts due to high lead prices are lifted, but terminal consumption in the automotive battery market remains weak, leading to cautious purchasing by dealers [1] Inventory Summary - As of November 17, LME lead inventory reached 266,100 tons, an increase of 43,700 tons (19.62%) from the previous day, with a cumulative increase of 63,900 tons (31.61%) over the past week and 15,700 tons (6.28%) over the past month [1] Market Outlook - The high lead prices are causing downstream reluctance, while smelters are expected to increase output due to favorable profit margins. The pressure from inventory accumulation is significant, with both domestic and international fundamentals weakening [2] - Short-term expectations suggest a potential decline towards the cost support level, with a focus on the 60-day moving average support at 17,100 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the delivery of the SHFE Lead 2511 contract ended, some supplies returned to the spot market. With general downstream consumption and production based on sales, short - term lead prices are expected to face downward pressure. Considering the continuous shortage of raw materials, it may limit the subsequent start - up of smelters. Attention should be paid to the support level around 17,000 yuan/ton. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter start - up [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 1.01% month - on - month to 17,425 yuan/ton; SHFE lead main contract closing price rose by 0.43% to 17,495 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.03% to 2,066 US dollars/ton [14]. 3.2 Basis There is no specific analysis or conclusion about the basis in the content other than presenting some basis - related data charts. 3.3 Raw Material Situation - Domestic lead concentrate processing fees remained flat month - on - month at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fees remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore supply remains unchanged, and with precious metal prices fluctuating at high levels, TC quotes are stable but tend to weaken. Smelter profits are acceptable, and as of November 7, smelter profits (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 163.6 yuan/ton [32]. - As of November 14, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The automotive battery has entered the peak scrapping season, and most large smelters reported sufficient battery arrivals, and the price did not rise with the lead price [46]. 3.4 Primary Lead - The primary lead start - up rate remained flat month - on - month at 67.57%. The production of major deliverable primary lead brands in China had small fluctuations, with some smelters reducing production due to raw material shortages [33]. - The weekly production and maintenance arrangements of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises showed that the total weekly production in the week of November 7 was 50,050 tons, 49,850 tons in the week of November 14, and an expected 50,150 tons this week. Some enterprises in Anhui were under maintenance, while those in Inner Mongolia resumed normal production [38]. 3.5 Recycled Lead - As of November 14, the comprehensive profit of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 361 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was 146 yuan/ton. With lead prices consolidating at high levels and scrap battery prices remaining stable, the profits of recycled lead smelters improved significantly [52]. - As of November 13, the raw material inventory of recycled lead increased to 152,750 tons, and the finished product inventory decreased to 4,400 tons. Due to limited primary lead supplies and firm quotes, some downstream buyers turned to recycled lead, resulting in a reduction in recycled lead finished product inventory [55]. - The recycled lead enterprise start - up rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 48.2%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of recycled lead was 59,400 tons, showing a decline. The start - up in Henan decreased significantly due to environmental protection control, while that in Anhui increased as smelters resumed production. Some smelters said they might stop production for maintenance around late November if the raw material inventory continued to decline [58]. 3.6 Lead Battery - The lead battery start - up rate increased by 1.34 percentage points to 70.56%. The resumption of production of enterprises that previously reduced production due to equipment maintenance or high lead prices drove the continuous increase in start - up. However, in the terminal market, the peak season of the automotive battery market was not prosperous, and dealers purchased according to demand. Some medium - and large - sized enterprises had weak new orders and actively reduced production to destock, so the overall battery start - up had not returned to the level in October [66]. 3.7 Import and Export - As of November 7, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,700 yuan/ton. As of November 17, the import profit was - 406.85 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [77]. 3.8 Inventory - As of November 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 38,600 tons, showing an increase; the factory inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands was 3,700 tons, showing a month - on - month decline. Due to delivery and position transfer, the factory inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the social inventory increased. With smelters resuming production and the end of the 2511 contract delivery, the decline in factory inventory is expected to slow down [88]. - As of November 14, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 42,800 tons, showing a month - on - month increase; as of November 13, the LME inventory was 222,500 tons, also showing an increase [91]. - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet showed the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from July 2024 to August 2025 [92].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead first rose and then fell. Macroscopically, the end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and weak domestic economic data pressured lead prices. Fundamentally, raw material supply remained tight, and processing fees for lead concentrates were weak and stable. Environmental controls in Henan affected the recycling of waste batteries, and some holders withheld goods, increasing costs. On the smelting side, primary lead production was stable, while secondary lead supply decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the consumption of lead - acid batteries for electric bicycles entered the off - season, and enterprises mainly made rigid purchases. Overall, LME lead was technically strong, and the domestic supply was stable while demand was weak. The import window for lead ingots closed, and lead prices were expected to adjust at a high level, with limited downward space due to the strength of LME lead and low domestic inventories [3][5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From November 7th to November 14th, SHFE lead rose from 17,420 yuan/ton to 17,495 yuan/ton, LME lead rose from 2045 dollars/ton to 2066 dollars/ton, the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.52 to 8.47, SHFE inventory increased by 4208 tons to 42,790 tons, LME inventory increased by 18,775 tons to 222,475 tons, social inventory increased by 0.31 million tons to 3.49 million tons, and the spot premium decreased from - 175 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead switched to PB2601, with a weekly increase of 0.34%. LME lead rose first and then adjusted, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. In the spot market, after the rise and fall of Shanghai lead, the willingness of holders to deliver was determined, and the enthusiasm for shipping increased. Downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing [5] Industry News - As of the week of November 14th, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee was - 135 dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining flat month - on - month [9] Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory levels, spread situations, waste battery prices, enterprise profit, processing fees, output, social inventory, and import profit and loss [11][12][18][19][22][23][25]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a tightening supply situation, which is expected to support high lead prices in the short term due to various factors including production issues and regulatory changes in electric vehicle battery standards [1][2]. Group 1: Market Inventory and Production - As of November 13, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported lead registered warehouse receipts at 128,650 tons, with canceled receipts at 95,325 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons. Total lead inventory stands at 223,975 tons, down by 1,250 tons [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported lead inventory at 25,824 tons, an increase of 1,138 tons from the previous trading day. Regional breakdown shows: Shanghai at 4,784 tons (down 197 tons), Guangdong at 4,724 tons (up 1,011 tons), Jiangsu at 4,782 tons (unchanged), Zhejiang at 1,272 tons (up 99 tons), and Tianjin at 10,262 tons (up 225 tons) [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - October's electrolytic lead production fell short of expectations, leading to a tightening supply that has pushed lead prices higher. Environmental restrictions in Hebei have caused a regional supply tightness to spread nationwide [2]. - A shortage of lead concentrate has resulted in many electrolytic lead producers operating below market expectations despite resuming production. The opening of import windows for lead and lead concentrate is expected to increase import volumes, gradually resolving raw material issues at the smelting end [2]. - The demand for lead is expected to remain stable, with short-term lead prices anticipated to maintain high levels amid these supply constraints [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Price Adjustments - The lead market has seen a shift from a five-day price increase to a downward adjustment, with social inventories continuing to rise. The resumption of production at refineries and the replenishment of crude lead are alleviating supply-demand mismatches, leading to a weakening of fundamental support for prices [3]. - Short-term adjustments in lead prices are expected as the market responds to these changes in inventory and production dynamics [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of lead products such as SMM1 lead ingots, Shanghai lead main - contract, and London lead have shown an upward trend. The lead market has both supply and demand increasing, but high lead prices suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. This week is the week before the delivery of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract, and some hidden inventories will become visible. There is a risk of the lead price rising and then falling. Attention should be continuously paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on refinery operations in the future [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.15% to 17,250 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main - contract closing price increased by 0.17% to 17,420 yuan/ton, and London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose by 0.99% to 2,045 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis**: No specific analysis of the basis is provided in the text, only historical basis data charts are presented [11]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Raw Material - Lead Concentrate**: The tight supply pattern of lead concentrate has not been alleviated, with domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees (TC) declining. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee dropped to 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee dropped to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The refinery profit is acceptable, with a profit of 162.5 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) as of October 31 [22][27]. - **Raw Material - Scrap Batteries**: As of November 7, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. With the continuous increase in secondary lead production, it is expected that the price of scrap batteries will rise in the future [42]. - **Primary Lead**: The primary lead operating rate increased slightly to 67.57%. The weekly production of some major smelting enterprises remained stable, while some enterprises had production changes due to maintenance or production resumption. The total weekly production is expected to increase from 49,800 tons to 50,450 tons [28][33]. - **Secondary Lead**: The secondary lead operating rate increased by 7.3 percentage points to 50.7%. The weekly production reached 5.97 tons last week. The supply of scrap batteries is relatively stable, and most refineries have sufficient raw materials, with the operating rate returning to a high level in the past six months [54]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Battery Enterprises**: The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 0.32 percentage points to 69.22%. Some previously maintained enterprises resumed production last week, and the lead ingot trading improved. However, due to the high lead price increasing battery costs and the general terminal consumption, dealers' inventory building is limited, and battery enterprises mainly produce according to sales [62]. 3.4 Import and Export Analysis - As of October 31, the refined lead export loss was about 3,000 yuan/ton. As of November 10, the import profit was - 418.79 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [71]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Lead Ingot Inventory**: As of November 10, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 3.27 tons, and the inventory of primary lead's main delivery brand factories was 8,900 tons, showing an increase. High lead prices inhibited downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and inventory accumulated due to delivery and position transfer [81]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of November 7, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 3.86 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 20.22 tons, showing a decrease [84]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the data of primary lead production, secondary lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory from July 2024 to August 2025 [85].

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Supply Gradually Recovering, Lead Prices May Oscillate Weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the gradual increase in the operation of domestic secondary lead smelters, the supply of domestic lead ingots may improve. On the consumption side, terminal demand is gradually weakening, and domestic lead consumption may decline. Attention should be paid to the domestic social inventory situation, and lead prices may decline as social inventory increases [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply - Side**: Recently, the supply - demand of domestic lead concentrates remains in a tight balance. The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates has been reduced by 50 yuan to 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee of SMM imported lead concentrates has been reduced by 10 US dollars to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. Most secondary lead smelters in China have sufficient raw material inventories, and the purchase quotes for lead - containing waste materials are stable. Individual secondary lead smelters have slightly increased the purchase price of waste batteries. It is expected that as the operation of secondary lead smelting enterprises increases, the price of lead - containing waste materials may gradually rise [4] - **Smelting End**: This week, the average operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters is 67.57%, an increase of 0.4% from last week. A small - scale smelter in Henan has resumed production after maintenance and slightly increased production; a small - and medium - scale smelter in Hunan has slightly fluctuated in output due to raw material supply, and other smelters in this region maintain partial operation and have not fully resumed production; smelters in Yunnan maintain normal production this week; a smelter in North China has reduced production as scheduled for maintenance, and another smelter's maintenance plan is still scheduled for late November. A smelter in Inner Mongolia that had resumed production after maintenance but was not at full capacity has returned to normal production and still has a slight increase this week. The weekly operating rate of SMM's four - province secondary lead is 50.65%, an increase of 7.24% from last week. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Anhui is over 50%. The large - scale smelting enterprises under maintenance in this region have all resumed production and their output is slowly increasing. It is expected that the operating rate in this region will still rise next week. The production of enterprises in Henan and Jiangsu is relatively stable, and the regional operating rate has not changed much. Since the supply of lead ingots in the northern market is still not abundant, the sales orders of smelters in Inner Mongolia are good [4] - **Consumption End**: This week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises is 69.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%. Recently, affected by the rising lead prices, the production cost of lead - acid batteries has increased. To avoid accumulating high - price inventories, some medium - and large - scale enterprises plan to reduce production, stop production, or conduct equipment maintenance from the end of October to early November. The maintenance of lead - acid battery enterprises has been completed one after another this week, and a small number of enterprises have resumed normal production. In November, the demand in the automotive battery market is weak, and some enterprises have lowered their production plans for November. Therefore, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid batteries has only increased slightly this week [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of November 6, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions has reached 31,800 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons compared to October 30 and an increase of 1,600 tons compared to November 1 [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold previous short positions; temporarily hold off on arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [4] 1.2 - 1.6 - These sections list various data related to lead, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided [5][8][12][16] Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - These sections list data on global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate supply, but no specific analysis content is provided [21][24] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - These sections list data on the price of lead - containing waste materials, waste battery prices, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but no specific analysis content is provided [28] Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but no specific analysis content is provided [36] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes of domestic refined lead, but no specific analysis content is provided [43] 3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue, but no specific analysis content is provided [44] 3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [47] 3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Costs and Profits - Lists data on the costs, comprehensive profits and losses, and production profits of secondary lead enterprises of different scales, but no specific analysis content is provided [50][54] 3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate, production, and output of secondary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [59] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on the total supply of domestic lead ingots, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and net refined lead exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [62] Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead - Acid Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, dealer inventories, export and import volumes, and enterprise inventories, but no specific analysis content is provided [69] 4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, lead alloy imports and exports, lead plate imports and exports, and other lead plate imports and exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [72] 4.3 Automobiles - Lists data on Chinese automobile production, exports, and production structure, but no specific analysis content is provided [75] 4.4 Motorcycles, Power, and Communications - Lists data on motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power projects, but no specific analysis content is provided [78]