今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅小幅上涨，沪铅主力合约2602开盘报17365元，高点17480元，低点17300 元，结算价报17400元，收盘17395元/吨，涨115元，涨幅0.67%。伦铅最新价报2020美元，涨26美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报17290-17390元/吨，均价17340元，涨140元；广东现货 市场1#铅报17260-17360元/吨，均价17310元，涨100元。今日现货铅市场报价在17200-17390元/吨之 间，对比沪期铅2601合约贴水205-贴水15元/吨。ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价上涨，宏观层面呈 现"内外分化，情绪主导"特征。国内元旦消费数据回暖与绿色消费政策提供情绪支撑，但春节前流动性 季节性收紧抑制投机，加之超1.3万亿元逆回购到期加剧资金面担忧。海外方面，美联储降息预期与美 元波动形成潜在支撑，而美国在委内瑞拉等地缘动作推升资源供应不确定性，避险情绪带动铅价被动跟 涨，然宏观利好尚未转化为实质性驱动。 供应端：分化显著，库存压力凸显 原生铅开工率回升至超60%，但交割品牌厂库单周激增，显性库存压力扩大。再生铅受环保管控、原料 废 ...

今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅下跌，沪铅主力合约2602开盘报17490元，高点17505元，低点17115 元，结算价17280元，收盘17355元/吨，跌115元，跌幅0.66%。今日沪铅2602主力合约成交量77958手， 持仓量45412手减少8479手。伦铅最新价报2013.5美元，跌11美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报17150-17250元/吨，均价17200元，跌210元；广东现货 市场1#铅报17160-17260元/吨，均价17210元，跌175元。今日现货铅市场报价在17050-17260元/吨之 间，对比沪期铅2601合约贴水170-升水40元/吨，沪期铅2602合约贴水170-升水40元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小跌，宏观风向扰动叠加年末获利了结，共同触发今日铅价回调。 一方面，美联储内部对降息路径的分歧加剧，令市场对宽松预期进行重新定价，宏观情绪趋于谨慎；另 一方面，铅价年内涨幅显著，在年末流动性收紧、交易活跃度下降的背景下，部分资金选择高位了结。 此外，价格高企已对下游需求形成抑制，企业采购意愿明显下降，叠加技术层面超买信号的显现，共同 推 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: Neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rebound of lead prices may temporarily end as both buyers and sellers are observing the market near the year - end. The demand side is weak except for the automotive battery sector, but the lead variety is likely to be affected by the overall strong pattern of the non - ferrous sector. So, a neutral attitude is recommended for operation, with an operation range of 17150 - 17850 yuan/ton [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On December 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 37.81 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose 200 yuan/ton to 17375 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed 25 yuan/ton to - 25.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot changed 175 yuan/ton to 17400 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot changed 175 yuan/ton to 17375 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed 225 yuan/ton to 17400 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries rose 25 yuan/ton to 9950 yuan/ton, waste white shells remained unchanged at 10050 yuan/ton, and waste black shells rose 25 yuan/ton to 10350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17460 yuan/ton, closed at 17490 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 84769 lots, an increase of 26000 lots, and the position was 54475 lots, a decrease of 1083 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 17645 yuan/ton and the lowest at 17415 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17465 yuan/ton and closed at 17380 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On December 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 1.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from last week. As of December 29, the LME lead inventory was 244275 tons, a decrease of 4625 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended for lead investment, with an operation range of 17150 - 17850 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is oscillating at a low level, with continued inventory decline and reduced production of secondary lead providing support, but the spot market is weakening at the end of the year. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Operational strategies suggest corresponding buying or selling hedging within this range, and an option strategy of selling a wide straddle is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On December 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$42.30/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 175 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 175 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,900 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white casings remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black casings increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On December 24, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,030 yuan/ton and closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 68,022 lots, an increase of 23,412 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 56,538 lots, a decrease of 1,548 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,305 yuan/ton and a low of 17,000 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,215 yuan/ton and closed at 17,275 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the afternoon close of the previous day. Lead smelters in Henan mainly shipped long - term contracts, and traders actively cleared inventories. The spot offer for scattered lots was at a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract. In Hunan, smelters offered at a premium of 10 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead price, and traders offered at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price to sell off stocks. In Yunnan, holders offered at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead price for just - in - time transactions. The downstream mainly consumed inventories or took delivery of long - term contracts. Some smelters lowered the premium of their quotes to sell, and some traders temporarily closed their accounts after selling out their inventories and did not participate in trading. The market trading was light [2] Inventory - On December 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 20,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the same period last week. As of December 24, the LME lead inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The lead price is expected to trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Operational strategies suggest corresponding buying or selling hedging within this range, and the option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a rebound trend with a current average price of 17,200 CNY/ton, reflecting a 150 CNY increase from the previous day, amidst a backdrop of mixed macroeconomic signals and seasonal demand fluctuations [1] Macroeconomic and Price Trends - Lead prices are showing a high-level retreat and low-level fluctuation, influenced by tightening funds at year-end and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which dampens market sentiment [1] - Domestic policies are stabilizing but lack strong driving forces, with the demand peak nearing its end, leading to weakened macro support for prices [1] - Short-term price expectations are set within a core range of 17,000-17,300 CNY/ton, with a generally strong trend anticipated [1] Supply Side Status - There is a significant divergence in domestic lead supply, characterized by stable primary lead and tightening recycled lead [1] - The recovery of previously shut-down primary lead producers has led to a slight increase in overall supply, but new capacity release remains slow, and low processing fees for lead concentrate limit production growth [1] - The main issue lies in recycled lead production, which is constrained by a decline in winter waste battery collection, raw material shortages, and environmental policies, resulting in low operating rates for enterprises [1] - Domestic social inventory is at a low level, providing price support, while LME inventory remains high, indicating a loose supply-demand situation overseas, creating an "internal low, external high" dynamic [1] Demand Side Status - Downstream demand is characterized by stability in traditional lead-acid battery needs, but new demand sources are weak, particularly in the electric bicycle market due to new national standards [2] - Emerging sectors like energy storage (e.g., lead-carbon batteries) have long-term potential but currently contribute minimally to overall consumption [2] - Export conditions for lead-acid batteries and lead materials are challenging due to overseas trade barriers, exacerbating demand-side pressures [2] - Overall, downstream procurement is primarily driven by rigid demand, lacking large-scale stocking motivation, reflecting a "peak season not booming" characteristic [2] Core Industry Chain Contradictions - The inventory situation is characterized by "tight domestic, loose external" conditions, with domestic social inventory dropping to a near three-year low, creating strong support for spot circulation [2] - Conversely, LME inventory stands at 253,000 tons, continuously suppressing international prices and market sentiment [2] Short-term Price Trend Forecast - The lead market is currently in a high-level narrow fluctuation pattern, with clear price volatility ranges influenced by mixed macro factors [3] - The domestic supply is constrained by tight recycled lead raw materials, while social inventory is at historical lows, providing strong bottom support [3] - However, weak demand growth, particularly in exports, combined with high overseas LME inventory, suppresses upward price potential [3] - The market is expected to reach a weak balance under the support of "strong costs, low inventory" and the pressure of "weak demand, high external inventory," with future direction dependent on changes in domestic inventory trends and macro sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a complex environment with mixed factors affecting prices, including low social inventory providing support, while demand is structurally weak and facing long-term substitution pressure from lithium batteries [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The London lead futures market saw a rise, closing at $1983 per ton, up $13, with a trading volume of 5600 lots [1]. - The domestic night session for Shanghai lead futures also closed higher, with the main contract closing at 17095 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.77% increase [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side issues are prominent, with primary lead smelting facing low processing fees and tight mineral supply, while secondary lead production is declining due to a shortage of scrap batteries and high prices, leading to widespread losses [1][2]. - Demand is structurally weak, particularly in the automotive sector for lead-acid batteries, despite growth in areas like 5G energy storage, which remains limited in scale and is hindered by overseas policy restrictions [1]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The short-term outlook for lead prices is influenced by low inventory levels and the dual pressures of primary lead production recovery and year-end capital tightening, with strong support from smelting costs expected to lead to potential price increases [2].

Group 1 - Anhui Fuyang issued an orange alert for heavy pollution and initiated a Level II emergency response, leading to a 50% reduction in output from several large-scale recycled lead smelting companies until the emergency response is lifted [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the average price of lead will be slightly above $2000 per ton in 2026 [1] - LME lead inventory remained at 252,500 tons as of December 16, with a weekly increase of 15,600 tons (6.56%) and a monthly increase of 30,000 tons (13.48%) [1] Group 2 - Minmetals Futures reported that lead ore inventory is stable, while primary lead operating rates are marginally declining; recycled lead operating rates are on the rise, and downstream battery manufacturers are seeing a slight increase in operating rates [3] - Domestic lead ingot social inventory remains relatively low, with upstream factory inventory declining marginally; however, the Shanghai lead month difference remains low [3] - The sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market is waning, leading to low positions in Shanghai lead, with expectations for lead prices to operate weakly within a wide range in the short term [3] Group 3 - Southwest Futures noted that some primary lead enterprises continue maintenance due to raw material tightness and profit pressure, increasing the willingness of recycled lead companies to reduce production [4] - The lead-acid battery market is entering a traditional off-season, with weak terminal demand and limited replenishment for electric bicycles and automotive batteries [4] - A decrease of 3,200 tons in primary lead social inventory last week provides some support, while supply contraction and low inventory limit the downside, but weak demand and potential import pressure restrain the rebound [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-16 库存方面：2025-12-15，SMM铅锭库存总量为2.2万吨，较上周同期变化0.14万吨。截止12月15日，LME铅库存为 252475吨，较上一交易日变化17725吨。 策略 现货散单成交寡淡 铅价难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-15，LME铅现货升水为-49.62美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16975 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50 元/吨至17025元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-25元/吨至16975元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至9900元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10275元/ 吨。 期货方面：2025-12-15，沪铅主力合约开于17130元/吨，收于17010元/吨，较前一交易日变化-11 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Lead ore inventory remains basically flat, primary lead smelting operating rate declines marginally, lead scrap inventory drops slightly, secondary lead smelting operating rate continues to rise, and downstream battery manufacturers' operating rate increases marginally. China's lead ingot social inventory stays at a relatively low level, upstream factory inventory declines marginally, but the monthly spread of SHFE lead remains low. With the ebbing of non - ferrous metal sentiment and low positions in SHFE lead, lead prices are expected to run weakly in a wide range in the short term [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.14% at 17,134 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 76,000 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME lead 3S dropped 4.5 to 1,984.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 170,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 17,025 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 17,000 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, China's social lead inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 22,900 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,700 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 75 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 235,500 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 110,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 48.25 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 99.2 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio was 1.225, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 297.67 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 34,000 tons, factory inventory was 471,000 tons, equivalent to 31.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary lead smelting operating rate was 65.52%, and the primary lead ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. At the secondary end, lead scrap inventory was 98,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 47,000 tons, and the secondary lead ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 74.64% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1.1673 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. In October 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1.5079 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [15] - **Domestic Production**: In November 2025, China's lead concentrate output was 136,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.8% and a month - on - month change of - 6.6%. From January to November, the total lead concentrate output was 1.5319 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In October 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1.3035 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [17] - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2.6988 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In September 2025, the global lead ore output was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total global lead ore output was 3.4021 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 34,000 tons, factory inventory was 471,000 tons, equivalent to 31.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Operating Rate and Output**: The primary lead smelting operating rate was 65.52%, and the primary lead ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. In November 2025, China's primary lead output was 327,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to November, the total primary lead ingot output was 3.5145 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.8% [26] 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the secondary end, lead scrap inventory was 98,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 47,000 tons, and the secondary lead ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's secondary lead output was 373,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.8%. From January to November, the total secondary lead ingot output was 3.6084 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.0% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 6.5172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 74.64%. In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 6.5264 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40] - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.1452 million units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 5.0% year - on - year [43] - **Inventory Days**: In November 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories decreased from 24.5 days to 20.9 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 41.0 days to 40.7 days [45] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Total Lead Ingot Inventory**: Not elaborated in a summarized way in the text, but relevant data is presented through various inventory charts - **China's Monthly Lead Ingot Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63] - **Overseas Monthly Lead Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 48,900 tons. From January to September, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 17,000 tons [66] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, China's social lead inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 22,900 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,700 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 75 yuan/ton [71] - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 235,500 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 110,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 48.25 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 99.2 dollars/ton [74] - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio was 1.225, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 297.67 yuan/ton [77] - **Position and Funds**: The net long position of the top 20 in SHFE lead turned slightly net long, the net long position of investment funds in LME lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80]

截至2025年12月12日当周，沪铅期货主力合约收于17125元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周减持11176手。 本周(12月8日-12月12日)市场上看，沪铅期货周内开盘报17340元/吨，最高触及17380元/吨，最低下探至17015元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-1.01%。 消息面回顾： 12月11日金属铅现货价格报17175元/吨，较上一日上涨106.25元/吨，当日涨幅为0.62%。最近一周，金属铅价格累计下跌25元/吨，下跌幅度为 0.15%；最近一个月，金属铅价格累计下跌212.5元/吨，下跌幅度为1.22%。 机构观点汇总： 银河期货：铅价触底反弹后，国内再生铅供应减量预期及库存相对低位支撑价格，但铅蓄消费转淡，叠加进口铅锭流入，社会库存或改善，建议 逢高轻仓试空。 中辉期货：国内原生铅、再生铅检修与复产并存，整体上有减量预期，终端电动车及汽车板块仍处于消费淡季，铅价短期延续反弹承压走势。 华中地区某小型再生铅冶炼企业因环保管控因素近两日停产，环比上周产量下滑约300吨；企业表示影响有限，复产在即。 12月11日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)：铅注册仓单125525吨，注销仓单109950吨，减少127 ...