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用机器学习解锁量化投资新边界
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-10 01:33
Core Insights - The article highlights the successful implementation of a day trading strategy using machine learning and pressure factors to identify trading opportunities in the futures market [2][4]. Strategy Overview - The day trading strategy, initiated in February 2023, employs a machine learning framework to analyze market data and predict daily returns for selected futures [2]. - The strategy focuses on 40 to 50 mainstream commodity futures but trades only the top five predicted by the model, optimizing for a higher Sharpe ratio during backtesting [2]. - Position allocation follows an "equal market value" principle, which has shown comparable performance to a "strong signal high position" model while simplifying operations [2]. Data Utilization - The strategy captures short-term fluctuations using 1-minute K-line data while also considering daily data for long-term trends, generating signals twice a day [3]. - The approach avoids frequent predictions to reduce model complexity, especially in the absence of significant incremental information during trading hours [3]. Risk Management - A multi-layered risk control framework is established, including mandatory position closing before market close to avoid overnight risks and immediate liquidation in case of market reversals [4]. - The strategy has demonstrated strong drawdown control, with a real trading drawdown rate of 5% to 6% and a maximum drawdown of 28.95% during a specific competition [4]. - The strategy is best suited for volatile markets, relying on a reversal effect, and incorporates traditional trend sub-strategies to mitigate risks [4]. Future Plans - The company plans to expand the trading universe to 10 to 15 products, which will enhance capital capacity while maintaining profitability through diversified order placements [5]. - A new product based on the day trading strategy has been registered, indicating a move towards a broader asset management market [5]. - The focus will remain on the commodity futures CTA sector, with ongoing investments in factor exploration and model optimization to ensure robust performance for clients [5].
把交易当作一门手艺
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-09 01:08
Core Insights - The article highlights the trading strategy of Ge Peng, who achieved second place in the third National Futures (Options) Simulation Trading Competition by relying solely on K-line charts without external tools [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Philosophy - Ge Peng's trading philosophy is summarized as "trend-oriented, with waves as a supplement," emphasizing a focus on market trends [2]. - During a prolonged decline in coking coal prices, Ge Peng made a bold decision to go long at the lowest point, demonstrating confidence in a trend reversal based on his "naked K" analysis [2]. - He maintained his long positions as coking coal prices rose, exiting near the peak, and later capitalized on reverse fluctuations by shorting after the trend ended [2]. Group 2: Risk Management - Ge Peng employs a unique risk control logic, stating that there is no fixed stop-loss ratio; instead, he uses the closing price as a reference [2]. - His trading system focuses on the overall technical shape at market close rather than temporary fluctuations or unrealized losses, allowing him to hold positions if the trend appears to continue [2]. Group 3: Differences Between Simulation and Real Trading - Ge Peng identifies a significant psychological difference between simulated and real trading, noting that real accounts can lead to emotional responses to drawdowns that do not affect simulated trading [3]. - He believes that strategies developed in simulation can be applied to real trading, but the psychological aspect is crucial and cannot be easily replicated [3]. Group 4: Advice for New Traders - Ge Peng advises new traders to start with small capital to experience the market and to use simulation for method validation [3]. - He emphasizes that trading is fundamentally about methodology, and if a trader struggles, it is likely due to incorrect methods, highlighting the importance of self-reflection [3].
趋势为王 纪律制胜
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-09 00:55
Core Insights - The participant known as "Alchemist" achieved consistent profits through a self-developed trend-following trading system during the third "Futures Star" competition [1] - The trading career of "Alchemist" began in 2006, transitioning from stocks to futures in 2008, and has since focused on various markets, ultimately refining a mature trading system in futures [1] Trading System - "Alchemist" utilizes a proprietary trading system on the Wenhua Financial platform, monitoring on a 5-minute basis and generating buy/sell signals through programmed logic [2] - The system operates under strict rules, with trade durations ranging from intraday to several weeks or even a month, driven by system signals [2] - The current portfolio includes volatile and low-correlation assets such as lithium carbonate, shipping indices (European line), and polysilicon, with hedging through SSE 50 options [2] Risk Management - "Alchemist" maintains a maximum drawdown of around 10%, significantly lower than the initial threshold of 20%-25% [2] - Manual intervention occurs during extreme market conditions, allowing for profit locking and system validation [2] - The profit-to-drawdown ratio remains stable between 6:1 and 7:1, showcasing effective risk management strategies [2] Position Selection Logic - The selection logic for current holdings emphasizes objective testing supplemented by subjective preferences, narrowing down from over ten assets to three core ones based on statistical characteristics and personal lifestyle [3] - The ideal operational scale for the current strategy is between 20 million to 50 million, with a preference for a comfortable range of 10 million to 20 million [3] - "Alchemist" has opted out of testing certain high-margin contracts due to their high margin requirements, focusing instead on assets without night trading [3] Trading Philosophy - "Alchemist" attributes success to two main factors: adherence to a validated system and strict risk control discipline [4] - The trading philosophy simplifies complex markets into replicable rules, continuously optimizing strategies to maintain their effectiveness [4] - The motto "cut losses short, let profits run" encapsulates the approach to trading in the futures market [4]
止损为盾 信仰作剑
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-08 01:33
Core Insights - The article highlights the success of a trader, Han Guo Xi, who won the championship in the options category of a national futures simulation trading competition, attributing his success to a strict risk management system centered around stop-loss strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Philosophy and Strategy - Han Guo Xi emphasizes the importance of setting fixed stop-loss levels that are automatically executed by software, which prevents emotional decision-making during trading [2]. - His trading strategy is notably straightforward, focusing on buying call and put options, which reflects his understanding of the essence of options trading [2][3]. - He believes that macroeconomic factors driving the changes in underlying asset prices are fundamental to decision-making, rather than relying solely on lagging risk metrics like Delta and Gamma [3]. Group 2: Psychological Aspects of Trading - Han Guo Xi identifies the psychological pressure of real trading as a significant difference from simulation trading, which can lead to operational distortions [3]. - He advocates treating simulation trading with the same seriousness as real trading to enhance trading skills and discipline [3]. - His key takeaway from the competition is the importance of mastering probabilities and patterns, refining his trading system, and cultivating confidence, which he considers essential for success in trading [3].
当代集团、天风证券双双被立案
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-12-04 13:19
近日,两家有关联的公司同日被立案,引发市场关注。 12月1日,武汉当代科技产业集团股份有限公司(以下简称"当代集团")在银行间市场披露公告,公司于11月28日收到《 案告知书》,因涉嫌信 息披露违法违规、违规融资等,被证监会立案。 就在11月28日,天风证券(601162)曾发布公告称,于当日收到《立案告知书》,因涉嫌信息披露违法违规、违法提供融资,根据相关法律法 规,证监会决定对公司立案。 值得一提的是,两案立案编号连续(0052025018、0052025019),且案由一个是"违法提供融资",另一个是"违规融资",具有高度关联性与连贯 性。 自2022年4月起,当代集团债券陆续发生违约,随后便陷入严重的债务危机、司法诉讼和监管调查的困境之中。而与之共生多年的天风证券也被 裹挟其中。 根据天风证券披露的2022年年报,当代集团及其关联方对天风证券存在非经营性占用资金的情形。具体来看,当代集团及其关联方通过第三方主 体与天风证券发生资金往来,累计占用天风证券资金约19亿元。其中,2020年累计付款额(不含利息)14.75亿元,归还2.67亿元;2021年累计付 款额(不含利息)6.95亿元,未归还;2022 ...
交易经验是靠一次次实战积累起来的
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-04 00:39
Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of Li Zhen, who achieved third place in the black group of a trading competition, emphasizing his unique trading path developed through experience and self-discovery [1] Group 1: Trading Philosophy and Strategy - Li Zhen's trading approach is purely technical, relying on a trading system for decision-making without considering fundamental analysis [2] - His trading style focuses on trend following, particularly excelling in capturing trend reversal opportunities, utilizing a "mid-term reversal trend" strategy during the competition [2] - Risk control and money management are flexible and pragmatic, with stop-loss strategies adjusted based on market trends and personal mindset [2] Group 2: Emotional and Mental Management - To manage anxiety related to trading, Li Zhen advocates using capital that can be afforded to lose, thereby reducing psychological pressure [3] - His emotional management evolved from Confucian to Daoist and then to Buddhist philosophies, focusing on self-discipline, market alignment, and inner peace [3] - Li Zhen believes that the market itself does not change significantly; rather, it is the trader's mindset that needs to adapt [3]
超百亿元!消金公司加速转让不良贷款,年末冲刺“出清”
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-12-03 13:36
临近年末,消费金融行业掀起不良资产处置"冲刺潮"。12月3日,北京商报记者注意到,12月以来仅3天,已有中邮消费金融、马上消费金融、湖北消费金 融、唯品富邦消费金融、兴业消费金融公司密集在银行业信贷资产登记流转中心(以下简称"银登中心")发布不良贷款转让相关消息,汇总来看,单月待消 金业转让的不良规模超百亿元,其中既有不到百日的逾期资产,但更多的是超3年、5年的长期逾期资产。 业内认为,今年以来,消费金融公司对外挂牌转让不良资产的规模和频率上升,既反映行业整体风险水位抬升,也体现监管引导下风险处置机制日趋成熟, 频繁出清是理性选择,但"卖得快"不代表"管得好",下一步,消费金融机构要注意将风控向源头前移,强化贷前准入、完善贷中动态监控。 月初5家消金公司密集转不良 12月过去不到3天,已有5家消金公司发布不良资产转让信息。从挂牌数据来看,部分消金公司不良资产处置呈现规模大、逾期长的特征。 以兴业消费金融发布的2025年第31期、32期个人不良贷款为例,其拟转让不良贷款分别合计121787笔、81833笔,未偿本金总额共计98.40亿元、9.49亿元, 加权平均逾期天数长达1188天、2033天,从逾期时间来看 ...
学会取舍 只做看得懂的行情
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-03 01:45
Core Insights - Liu Taibao achieved second place in the non-ferrous metals group of the 19th National Futures (Options) Real Trading Competition, leveraging his part-time trading of copper put options while working on short film scripts [1] Group 1: Trading Strategy - Liu's initial exposure to options trading began in 2019 when he helped a friend manage inventory in the non-ferrous trade, leading to an interest in using put options to hedge against falling copper prices [2] - A pivotal moment in Liu's trading career came in 2025 when he simplified his trading strategy by focusing solely on copper, which significantly improved his trading success rate [2] - Liu's winning trade in the competition was based on a supply-demand analysis, where he identified an oversupply situation in copper and combined it with technical signals to decide on buying put options [2][3] Group 2: Trading Philosophy - Liu emphasizes a trading philosophy of "not being greedy" and focusing on small, understandable profits, which he developed after experiencing significant losses [4] - His trading logic is grounded in two main principles: the importance of supply-demand dynamics in determining copper prices and the necessity of risk control before pursuing profits [4] - Liu has adapted his trading routine to fit his schedule, dedicating specific times for market analysis without interfering with his film production work [4] Group 3: Risk Management - Risk control is a fundamental rule in Liu's trading approach, employing a "logical stop-loss" strategy to exit positions when supply-demand logic changes, regardless of the financial loss incurred [5] - Liu follows strict money management rules, allocating 90% of trading profits to his film fund and limiting his trading capital to a small percentage of his total funds [5] - He adheres to a "10% principle" for position sizing, ensuring that no more than 10% of his spare cash is invested in options and that initial positions are kept small to manage risk effectively [5]
把熟悉的策略用好、用精
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-02 02:28
Core Insights - Wang Xiaolu won the "Zhengshang Futures Options Player Award" in her first participation in the national futures (options) trading competition, showcasing her skills in options trading [1] - Her successful strategy involved selling put options on PTA, capitalizing on market conditions and volatility [1][2] - Wang emphasizes the importance of risk management and has developed a method to keep risk levels below 70% to mitigate potential market shocks [1][2] Group 1 - Wang Xiaolu's notable trades included PTA, caustic soda, peanuts, and ferrosilicon, with a standout performance in PTA options [1] - The successful PTA trade involved selling put options during a market uptrend, allowing her to profit from volatility, direction, and time [1] - Wang's position management was effective, as she adjusted her positions upwards during the price increase, maximizing her gains [1] Group 2 - The biggest challenge faced during the competition was unexpected market volatility, which required using futures to hedge risks [2] - Wang Xiaolu's award has enhanced her sense of achievement and engagement as a professional investor [3] - For newcomers to options trading, she advises finding a good mentor and emphasizes the importance of practicing with simulated trading to improve skills [3] Group 3 - Wang highlights that successful trading does not require complex strategies but rather a clear understanding of market direction and effective psychological management [3] - Her transition from the stock market to the options market took two years, built on a deep understanding of the market and strict risk control [3] - The focus should be on effectively utilizing familiar strategies rather than chasing after complex ones [3]
明晰适用边界 发挥期权工具价值
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-01 00:54
Core Viewpoint - Options are a crucial component of the derivatives market, providing investors with tools to manage different market conditions through limited loss and flexible hedging and speculation strategies [1][9] Group 1: Bullish Market Strategies - In a significant bullish market, buying call options is an effective strategy when implied volatility is low, allowing investors to pay a relatively low premium for the right to buy the underlying asset at a predetermined price [1] - For a moderate bullish outlook, the bull spread strategy is more cost-effective, involving buying a low strike call option and selling a higher strike call option to reduce overall entry costs [2] - The maximum profit from the bull spread is the difference between the strike prices minus the net premium paid, making it suitable for scenarios where price increases are limited [2] Group 2: Bearish Market Strategies - In a significant bearish market, buying put options is a core strategy when implied volatility is low, allowing investors to sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price [4] - The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid, while the maximum profit is the strike price minus the underlying price minus the premium, making it suitable for investors expecting a clear downward trend [4] - For a moderate bearish outlook, the bear spread strategy involves buying a high strike put option and selling a low strike put option to lower net entry costs, with a clear risk-reward profile [6] Group 3: Neutral Market Strategies - In a sideways market, the core strategy is to capitalize on time decay or volatility contraction, with the short straddle strategy being suitable when prices are expected to remain within a narrow range [7] - This strategy involves selling both a call and a put option at the same strike price and expiration date, allowing investors to collect premiums as long as the underlying price does not exceed key levels [7] - The strategy carries unlimited loss risk if prices move significantly, making it suitable for traders with strong risk tolerance [7] Group 4: General Considerations - The selection of options strategies should align with market conditions, volatility expectations, and individual risk preferences, emphasizing the importance of liquidity management and risk control [9] - Understanding the applicable boundaries and risk characteristics of each strategy is essential for effectively leveraging their value in complex commodity markets [9]