Core Viewpoint - The oil futures market remains stable as it awaits new negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, with Iran refusing to include its missile program in the talks, maintaining a risk premium in oil prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bearish factors for oil include the warming weather in the U.S. and the end of winter, leading to a decline in heating oil prices [1] - According to Ritterbusch & Associates, recent diesel futures remain a weak segment in the market [1] - The report also notes that recent activities at Russian refineries have not been disrupted, which has led to a significant premium being squeezed out of recent diesel futures, affecting the U.S. diesel price curve [1] Group 2: Price Movements - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil increased by 0.1% to $64.39 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil rose by 0.2% to $69.18 per barrel [1]

原油消息面解析：周二（北京时间2月10日）亚市早盘，美原油交投于64.47美元/桶附近，油价周一上 涨超过1%，主要受地缘政治紧张局势推动。油价周一上涨超过1%，主要受地缘政治紧张局势推动。此 前美国交通部发布公告，建议悬挂美国国旗的船只通过霍尔木兹海峡和阿曼湾时尽可能远离伊朗领海， 引发市场对石油供应可能中断的担忧。全球约五分之一的石油消费量经由该海峡运输。投资者也在关注 西方针对俄罗斯石油出口的进一步制裁动向。欧盟委员会已提议全面禁止任何支持俄罗斯海上原油出口 的服务，旨在遏制其用于乌克兰战争的收入来源。分析师指出，近期油价走势将更多取决于与伊朗相关 的风险溢价变化，而非单纯的石油基本面。 原油技术面分析：原油从日线图级别看，油价结束连续收阳局面，K线收大实体阴线。均线系统仍依托 油价多头排列，中期客观趋势方向看涨不变。MACD指标在零轴上方，多头动能占优势，预计原油中期 走势呈上行节奏。原油短线（1H）走势陷入区间震荡节奏，油价上下穿越均线系统，区间波幅在65.50- 62.20之间。MACD指标在零轴位置反复穿越，多空力度互相交替。预计日内原油走势仍将维持在区间 内波动为主，保持区间操作思路。综合来看 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国财长贝森特称， | | | | 即使沃什任美联储主席，缩表也不会快速推进，这表明在特朗普政府压力下，美联储政 | | | | 策仍将保持审慎，优先维护金融稳定，而非过早收紧，其表态淡化了市场对沃什偏鹰派 | | | | 的焦虑。另外，美国非农就业数据将于本周五公布，哈塞特暗示数据可能低于预期。库 | | | 铜 | 存方面 LME 库存增加 1025 吨至 184300 吨；Comex 库存增加 1025 吨至 535435 | 吨；SMM | | | 周一统计国内精炼铜社会库存环比上周四下降 0.45 万吨至 33.13 万吨。需求方面，下游 | | | | 陆续房间，采购节奏放缓，社会库存累库。铜价走势与海外金融市场和贵金属表现有一 | | | | 定趋同性，这表明当前运行逻辑仍依赖于金融属性和市场情绪，整体仍以震荡 ...

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing market data of major broad-based indices in the A-share market, including their performance, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and net-breaking rates [1][3][4] - **Market Performance**: All broad-based indices showed positive growth on February 9, 2026, with the highest daily increase observed in the ChiNext Index (2.98%) and CSI 1000 (2.26%). Year-to-date, CSI 500 recorded the highest growth (11.33%), followed by CSI 2000 (10.07%) and CSI 1000 (8.41%) [3][12][16] - **Moving Averages**: All indices surpassed their 5-day moving averages. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 remained below their 20-day moving averages, while other indices exceeded their 10-day and 20-day moving averages [14][15] - **Turnover Rates**: CSI 2000 had the highest turnover rate (4.02%), followed by ChiNext Index (3.55%) and CSI 1000 (2.85%). The turnover rate calculation formula is: $ \text{Turnover Rate} = \frac{\Sigma(\text{Circulating Shares of Constituents} \times \text{Turnover Rate of Constituents})}{\Sigma(\text{Circulating Shares of Constituents})} $ [18] - **Risk Premiums**: Risk premiums were calculated relative to the 10-year government bond yield. CSI 500 (96.67%) and CSI All Share (96.35%) had the highest 5-year percentile values, while CSI 2000 (94.21%) and SSE 50 (92.62%) had lower values. CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 exhibited higher volatility in risk premiums [27][28][30] - **PE-TTM Analysis**: CSI 500 and CSI All Share had the highest 5-year percentile values (99.26%), indicating elevated valuations. Conversely, SSE 50 (83.8%) and ChiNext Index (64.71%) had lower percentile values. The PE-TTM formula is: $ \text{PE-TTM} = \frac{\text{Market Price}}{\text{Trailing Twelve Months Earnings}} $ [38][41][42] - **Dividend Yields**: Dividend yields were tracked to assess cash return rates. ChiNext Index (55.29%) and CSI 300 (37.02%) had the highest 5-year historical percentile values, while CSI 500 (4.46%) and CSI 2000 (0.83%) were significantly lower [47][50][52] - **Net-Breaking Rates**: Net-breaking rates reflect the proportion of stocks trading below their book value. Current rates were highest for SSE 50 (24.0%) and lowest for CSI 2000 (2.4%) [54][57][59]

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.208, UK 4.514, France 3.446, Germany 2.841, Italy 3.466, Spain 3.220, Switzerland 0.243, Greece 3.454, Japan 2.222, Brazil 6.169, China 1.806, South Korea 3.697, Australia 4.826, New Zealand 4.535 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.500, UK 3.617, Germany 2.082, Japan 1.275, Italy 2.231, China (1Y yield) 1.308, South Korea 3.009, Australia 4.254 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.219, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 16.031, Korean won 1463.650, Thai baht 31.647, Malaysian ringgit 3.948 [3] - The latest exchange rates related to the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.936, off - shore RMB 6.930, RMB central parity rate 6.959, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.797 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6932.300, Dow Jones Industrial Index 50115.670, Nasdaq 23031.210, Mexican stock index 70809.570, UK stock index 10369.750, France CAC 8273.840, Germany DAX 24721.460, Spanish stock index 17943.300, Russian stock index (not provided), Nikkei 54253.680, Hang Seng Index 26559.950, Shanghai Composite Index 4065.583, Taiwan stock index 31782.920, South Korean stock index 5089.140, Indian stock index 7935.260, Thai stock index 1354.010, Malaysian stock index 1732.830, Australian stock index 8954.613, emerging - economy stock index 1506.380 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3560.630, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 267.879, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.940, US high - yield credit - bond index 2932.470, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 413.420, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1848.064 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4065.58 (down 0.25%), CSI 300 closing price 4643.60 (down 0.57%), SSE 50 closing price 3037.86 (down 0.69%), ChiNext closing price 3236.46 (down 0.73%), CSI 500 closing price 8146.41 (unchanged) [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 14.04 (down 0.04), SSE 50 11.59 (down 0.05), CSI 500 36.90 (down 0.02), S&P 500 27.68 (up 0.53), Germany DAX 19.18 (up 0.18) [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.60 (down 0.10), Germany DAX 2.37 (down 0.05) [4] - Fund flow: A - share latest value 202.42, main - board latest value 114.74, small - and - medium - enterprise board (not provided), ChiNext latest value 71.02, CSI 300 latest value - 34.69; A - share 5 - day average - 272.73, main - board 5 - day average - 179.44, small - and - medium - enterprise board (not provided), ChiNext 5 - day average - 60.47, CSI 300 5 - day average - 37.58 [4] - Transaction amount: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 21457.19 (down 305.01), CSI 300 latest value 5057.60 (down 446.73), SSE 50 latest value 1336.06 (down 143.91), small - cap board latest value 4650.31 (up 273.12), ChiNext latest value 5607.18 (up 84.29) [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF basis - 6.00 (spread - 0.13%), IH basis - 1.66 (spread - 0.05%), IC basis - 29.01 (spread - 0.36%) [5] Group 3: Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Treasury bond futures closing prices: T2303 108.42 (up 0.09%), TF2303 105.95 (up 0.03%), T2306 108.44 (up 0.10%), TF2306 106.02 (up 0.07%) [5] - Fund rates: R001 1.3605% (down 19.00 BP), R007 1.5288% (down 2.00 BP), SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800% (unchanged) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of Dongwu Securities, Lu Zhe, indicates that gold has been in a continuous upward channel since 2020, but recent price movements have shown changes in rhythm [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Gold prices have accelerated in their upward trajectory, with the time taken to rise from $2000/oz to $3000/oz, from $3000/oz to $4000/oz, and from $4000/oz to $5000/oz decreasing [1] - This acceleration in price increase reflects a shift in the pricing mechanism of gold from "trend-based allocation" to being driven by "emotions and expectations" amid rising macroeconomic uncertainties and increased risk premiums [1] Group 2: Market Sensitivity - The faster price movement reinforces the long-term upward trend of gold, but it also indicates a higher sensitivity to external disturbances in the short term [1]

对固收 + 与多资产组合而言，股债弱相关意味着"债券对冲权益"的效率偏低 ，单纯依赖股债负相关来提供稳健性的确定性下降。因此， 组合构建上应有意识 下调对"股债对冲"的单一依赖 ，把稳健性更多交给久期结构、曲线配置与品种分散来实现；含权仓位强调可控风险暴露与组合波动管理，让收益更多来自结 构轮动与精选，而非依赖负相关"兜底"。 风险提示：数据统计遗漏、偏误；政策理解不到位；理论推演理解有别；等等。 2025 年以来股债关系由显著"跷跷板"逐渐走向"脱敏"。 25 年上半年"跷跷板"的形成，更多来自风险资产比价与估值再定价 ： 此前利率下行过快、债券价 格偏贵、后续空间被透支；同时权益在科技主线带动下自低位修复、风险偏好回升，资金在股债之间的相对性价比再配置对利率形成阶段性压制。 25 年下半 年，联动强度的削弱更像是低利率约束下债市回归区间震荡的自然结果 ： 利率上端受权益偏强与供给扰动牵制，下端又受资金面稳定与政策预期呵护约束， 债市缺乏触发单边行情的定价力量；在"股强债震荡"的组合下，股债联动向弱相关区间收敛。 股债关联强度的变化显著影响股债组合的对冲效率。 我们发现： 股债相关性绝对值的变化，与股息率的 ...

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.05 如何择时股债对冲效率 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 寻找跨资产定价的共振系数 本报告导读： 对冲效率看联动强度，联动强度看风险溢价。股息率是适合跟踪的风险溢价信号， 关键看股息率的边际变动。 投资要点： | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙飞帆(研究助理) | | | 021-23185647 | | | sunfeifan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125042242 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 "做陡曲线"还是"宏观对冲"，基金参与国债期 货的两面 2026.02.01 如何理解 ONRRP 类工具与双向隔夜回购 2026.01.30 承接"存款搬家"，理财投了什么，收益如何 2026.01.30 债券 ETF 规模跃升之后：业绩归因、策略优化与 未来挑战 2026.01.29 强者恒强，关注业绩筑底走向 2026.01.27 证 券 研 究 ...

李迅雷 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 文章原载于"李迅雷金融与投资"微信公众号：lixunlei0722 大家似乎普遍都认为一旦人民币实现自由兑换，就会大幅贬值。曾与不少人交流过，不管是普通百姓，还是金融学者，甚 至一些高层人士，都无一例外地持有这样的观点。经验告诉我们，一致预期往往是错的。为此，笔者在去年7月份发表长文 《人民币可否尝试惊险一跃》，建议人民币早日尝试在资本项下的自由兑换，从而加速人民币国际化进程。 近日，《求是》杂志发表重要文章，指出金融强国的目标，"一是拥有强大的货币，在国际贸易投资和外汇市场广泛使用， 具有全球储备货币地位"。而我一直认为人民币实现自由兑换后并不会出现大幅贬值或资本外逃现象。本文将进一步解释为 何美元是被高估的，人民币则是被低估的，在当前美元走弱的背景下，应该加快提升人民币的国际化地位。 购买力平价—— 反映各国货币的估值水平 投资股票的人都知道什么叫市盈率，市盈率越低，说明估值越便宜。如每当股市步入漫长的熊市，大家都会说股价被低估 了，因为市盈率很低了，希望平准基金能进场；每当股市疯涨，平均市盈率处在历史高位，则管理层就会推进IPO速度、 控制融资规模等来平抑市场狂热情绪。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the common belief that the renminbi will depreciate significantly upon achieving free convertibility is misguided. Instead, it suggests that the renminbi is undervalued and should be accelerated in its internationalization process, especially in the context of a weakening US dollar [1]. Group 1: Currency Valuation - Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is used to assess the valuation levels of various currencies, indicating that the market exchange rates of developing countries' currencies, including the renminbi, are generally lower than their PPP rates [2][3]. - The renminbi's market exchange rate was 7.19 against the US dollar in June 2025, while its PPP rate is approximately 3.43, indicating a significant undervaluation [3]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Undervaluation - The primary reason for the long-term undervaluation of the renminbi is its weak liquidity, which limits its circulation and acceptance compared to other currencies [5]. - The renminbi's international payment share was only 2.89% as of May 2025, ranking it as the sixth-largest payment currency, while the US dollar accounts for over 40% [8][9]. - The geographical concentration of renminbi payments is primarily in Hong Kong, with only 2.9% occurring in the US, highlighting its limited global reach [10][12]. Group 3: Global Reserve Currency Status - The renminbi's share in global official reserves is low, with approximately $249.7 billion as of the end of 2024, accounting for only 2.2% of total reserves, making it the sixth-largest reserve currency [12][15]. - In contrast, the US dollar constitutes about 60% of global reserves, indicating a significant disparity in reserve currency status [15]. Group 4: Implications of Currency Internationalization - Accelerating the internationalization of the renminbi could enhance its global demand and liquidity, potentially leading to an appreciation of its value [31][34]. - The article suggests that increasing the renminbi's share in global reserves from around 2% to 10% could lead to a reduction in M2 growth, as more renminbi would be held abroad [34]. - The need for financial market openness is emphasized as a means to enhance the renminbi's credit rating and international acceptance, which are crucial for its transformation into a strong currency [35].