Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges, particularly due to Trump's ongoing pressure on Powell, leading to a reassessment of the central bank's policy outlook in the market. However, JPMorgan believes that there is no need for excessive concern [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is not a new phenomenon, and its independence is described as a "myth" by JPMorgan's Ilan Benhamou, who notes that such situations have been occurring behind closed doors for decades [3]. - Historical precedents, such as President Johnson's conflict with former Fed Chairman Bill Martin in 1965, illustrate the ongoing tension between political figures and the Fed [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - JPMorgan suggests continuing to invest in the S&P 500 and VIX indices, anticipating that investors will increasingly allocate funds to risk assets like cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence, while uncertainties regarding tariffs, inflation, and Fed policies will heighten market volatility [2]. - As Powell's term nears its end, investors are expected to focus on the policy inclinations of the next Fed chair, with a growing dovish sentiment likely to support further gains in the stock market under expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. Group 3: Legal Implications of Dismissal - If Trump were to dismiss Powell, it would be a historic first in the U.S., likely resulting in a landmark lawsuit that could ultimately require a Supreme Court ruling [5]. - The Federal Reserve Act allows for the removal of board members, including the chair, "for cause," and Trump has suggested potential reasons for dismissal related to the Fed's renovation costs [6]. Group 4: Supreme Court's Position - The Supreme Court previously indicated that Trump cannot dismiss Powell without cause, recognizing the Fed as a "structurally unique quasi-private entity," but left open the possibility for "for cause" dismissals [7]. - Legal experts suggest that even if the court finds the dismissal unlawful, it remains uncertain whether Powell could retain his position, given the court's limitations on providing "equitable relief" for high-ranking officials [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is intensifying pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, potentially aiming to replace him with a more dovish leadership that emphasizes economic growth, amidst rising tensions over the Fed's renovation costs [1][2][10]. Group 1: Pressure on Powell - The Trump administration's pressure on Powell has escalated, focusing on the controversy surrounding the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation as a potential legal basis for his removal [2][4]. - The renovation costs for the Federal Reserve's headquarters have surged by 30%, from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, raising concerns and leading to accusations of mismanagement [3][10]. - White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett has suggested that Trump has the right to dismiss Powell based on "just cause," which may relate to the renovation cost overruns [4][9]. Group 2: Potential Candidates and Market Reactions - Several potential candidates for Powell's position have begun to express support for the Trump administration's views, with some calling for significant reforms within the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - Market analysts warn that the risk of Powell's removal is significantly underestimated, with predictions of a 3-4% drop in the dollar index and a 30-40 basis point sell-off in U.S. Treasuries if he is forced out [10][11]. - The potential dismissal of Powell is viewed as a direct threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could lead to broader instability in global markets [11].

Core Viewpoint - Christopher Waller is recognized as the most suitable candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, balancing between hawkish and dovish stances while adhering to data-driven monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Waller's Qualifications and Market Perception - Waller has gained broad recognition in the market and policy circles for his leadership and economic judgment, making him a trusted figure who aligns with Trump's desire to lower the 10-year Treasury yield [1]. - His approach to monetary policy is characterized by a focus on data, avoiding extreme positions, which has led to a favorable perception among market participants [2][4]. - Waller's communication style, utilizing scenario analysis, enhances market understanding of the Fed's policy responses, further solidifying his reputation as a reliable policymaker [4]. Group 2: Economic Insights and Predictions - Waller has demonstrated a keen ability to anticipate economic trends, such as recognizing the persistent nature of inflation in 2021, which many mainstream forecasters overlooked [2]. - He proposed that it is possible to control inflation through interest rate hikes without triggering massive unemployment, a theory that has proven to align closely with subsequent economic developments [2]. - In discussions about tariffs, Waller acknowledged their inflationary impact but suggested that the effects would be temporary, supporting the case for potential interest rate cuts starting in July [3]. Group 3: Political Dynamics and Strategic Value - Waller's previous appointment by Trump and his non-confrontational stance towards the administration make him a politically acceptable choice for the presidency of the Fed [4][5]. - His nomination could facilitate a smooth transition of leadership, allowing Powell to retire with confidence, as Waller's policies are seen as stable and professional [6]. - The potential for Waller to maintain market trust and avoid significant increases in long-term interest rates aligns with Trump's economic agenda, emphasizing low rates and low inflation [6].

Group 1 - The recent decline of the US dollar index (DXY) to 97.48 represents a significant drop of over 10% this year, erasing all gains from the previous year [1][3] - Trump's intention to nominate a new Federal Reserve chair before Powell's term ends is aimed at influencing market expectations and potentially altering interest rate policies [3][4] - The leading candidate for the new chair is Kevin Walsh, who has previously supported rate cuts, indicating a possible shift towards a more dovish monetary policy [3][4] Group 2 - Historical trends show that the dollar's performance is closely tied to the Federal Reserve chair's policy stance, with a dovish shift likely to weaken the dollar further [4][5] - A weaker dollar is expected to benefit gold and commodities, as it makes these assets cheaper for holders of other currencies [5] - Investors should monitor key dates: the announcement of the new chair this summer or fall, and the official transition in May next year, as these could lead to significant market volatility and investment opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs suggests that Powell does not sound particularly dovish [1] Group 1 - The commentary indicates a shift in tone from the Federal Reserve, implying a more hawkish stance on monetary policy [1] - Market expectations may need to adjust based on Powell's recent statements, which could influence interest rates and economic outlook [1] - The analysis highlights the potential implications for investment strategies in response to changing Fed signals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Clarida, indicates that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is adopting a dovish stance in its decision-making [1] Group 1 - Clarida's comments suggest a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy by the FOMC, which may influence market expectations and economic conditions [1] - The dovish approach could lead to lower interest rates or a slower pace of rate hikes, impacting various sectors including banking and investment [1] - This stance reflects concerns about economic growth and inflation, signaling a cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming increasingly significant, with potential candidates including Scott Bessent, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Judy Shelton, which may impact the Fed's independence and inflation targets [1][3]. Candidate Profiles - Christopher Waller has been a prominent figure in the Fed, advocating for a dovish stance and suggesting that tariffs will have a temporary effect on inflation, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts this year [2][3]. - Kevin Warsh, previously considered for the Fed Chair position by Trump, has criticized the Fed's quantitative easing policies and is seen as a potential candidate, although he has shown some flexibility in his recent statements regarding interest rate cuts [4][5]. - Judy Shelton, known for her controversial views advocating for a return to the gold standard and opposing Fed independence, could cause significant market volatility if nominated [6][7].

金十数据6月11日讯，"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：5月CPI数据全线低于预期，核心CPI环比上升 0.13%，整体CPI环比上升0.08%。核心CPI同比增幅从2.78%升至2.79%，整体CPI从2.31%微升至 2.35%，同比数据所呈现的平稳态势夸大了这一数据的鸽派程度。 "美联储传声筒"：一个全线低于预期的五月CPI ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming a focal point for the market, with increasing speculation around potential candidates and their implications for monetary policy [1][2][4]. Candidate Analysis - Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, is being pushed by advisors within the Trump administration as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, although the White House has denied these claims [2][4]. - Current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and there is growing interest in who will succeed him [5]. - Other potential candidates include Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve Governor; Kevin Hassett, current Director of the National Economic Council; and Chris Waller, current Federal Reserve Governor [9][10][11]. Market Impact - The concept of a "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" is emerging, indicating that the market may start reacting to the potential candidates as they become more defined [7][8]. - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that Trump's administration may favor a "dovish" candidate who aligns with his calls for interest rate cuts [13]. Candidate Preferences - Kevin Waller is noted for his dovish stance, advocating for ignoring tariff-induced inflation to prioritize interest rate cuts, which aligns with Trump's preferences [13][15]. - The report indicates that while all candidates may promise to lower rates, the real challenge lies in implementing such policies effectively [14]. Challenges Ahead - The next Federal Reserve Chair will need to navigate the complexities of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve while addressing political pressures [12][15]. - Candidates from within the government may face heightened scrutiny regarding their ability to uphold the Fed's independence and credibility in achieving inflation targets [15].

Group 1 - The Bank of England's recent policy stance has turned hawkish, significantly reducing expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a June cut dropping from 50% to 4% [1] - Market expectations have shifted towards a greater likelihood of a rate cut in the third quarter, with current bets for an August cut averaging around 16 basis points (64%) [1] - The upcoming inflation reports may influence market expectations, with a potential downward surprise in inflation data possibly shifting sentiment back towards a dovish outlook [1] Group 2 - The short-term impact of the Bank of England's hawkish stance on the British pound is limited, with market focus shifting to the upcoming UK-EU summit, where Prime Minister Starmer aims to promote closer UK-EU relations [1] - The GBP/USD exchange rate has recently fallen below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), indicating a prevailing bearish correction trend despite reaching oversold levels [1] - Any further upward movement in GBP/USD may be capped around 1.3340, with major resistance expected at 1.3405, while current trading is likely to remain within a range of 1.3220 to 1.3320 [2]