Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have reached all-time highs, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver exceeding $72 per ounce, marking increases of over 70% and approximately 150% respectively this year [1] - Factors contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices include geopolitical tensions involving the US and Venezuela, potential conflicts between Iran and Israel, uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a weakening dollar, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The market anticipates a dovish stance from the new Federal Reserve chairman, which has positively impacted international silver prices [1] Group 2 - The iShares Silver ETF has seen a significant increase in holdings, with a daily rise of 533 tons on December 23, indicating a tightening supply in the silver market [2] - The rental rates for physical silver have reached their highest levels in nearly five years, further supporting the recent surge in silver prices due to supply constraints [2] Group 3 - Analysts believe that gold prices will continue to rise due to increasing US debt risks, diminishing attractiveness of dollar assets, strong global central bank interest in gold, and an ongoing interest rate cut cycle in the US [3] - Despite the bullish outlook for gold and silver, there are warnings about potential short-term risks, with suggestions for investors to manage their positions carefully [4] - Reports indicate that while gold prices are expected to rise steadily, silver prices may experience greater short-term volatility [4]

【美联储理事米兰：近期数据应该会促使人们向鸽派方向转变】智通财经12月22日电，美联储理事米兰 表示，由于美国政府停摆，上周的通胀数据存在一些异常之处，全年CPI都存在严重的向上偏差；近期 数据应该会促使人们向鸽派方向转变；认为美国近期内不会出现经济衰退，如果不调整政策，美国将面 临日益加剧的经济衰退风险。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices continued to be strong, with London spot gold approaching the historical high of $4,380 in October, and London spot silver reaching a new historical high of $67. The short - term K - line shows no turning signal. After Tuesday, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation rebounded slightly due to补发 of non - farm and CPI employment data, indicating downward pressure on the US economy and easing inflation [2]. - Since the end of November, silver has outperformed gold, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly due to factors such as low supply elasticity and low inventory of silver, large deliveries of COMEX 2512 contracts, rigid industrial demand, continuous inflow of ETF investment demand (but a weekly outflow of 36.7 tons from the iShares Silver ETF last week), growth expectations of silver demand from green new energy and digital AI economy, and concerns about import tariffs caused by the uncertainty of the US 232 mineral survey results [3]. - Near - term trading logic (before January 2026): Be cautious about chasing high silver prices as price correction risks are accumulating. Factors include high implied volatility of SHFE silver options, potential technical support for the gold - silver ratio, alleviation of concentrated delivery pressure, possible release of the US 232 mineral survey results, and potential phased selling of silver by some indices and products [3]. - Long - term trading logic (after January 2026): Pay attention to the change of the US dollar index, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm and RMP operation in the first half of 2026, central bank gold purchases under the de - dollarization trend, and the growth prospects of investment demand. Also, focus on key resource demand and tariff policies under anti - globalization and trade protection [4]. - Trend judgment: The short - term trend remains oscillating and strong. Gold should pay attention to the previous high resistance, and silver should be aware of the profit - taking pressure. The support and resistance levels for London spot gold are $4,100 - $4,250 - $4,400, and for London spot silver are $60 - $65 - $70. The unilateral strategy is to hold existing long positions cautiously. For gold, if it breaks through the historical high on the daily line, consider chasing the long position; for silver, be cautious about chasing high in the short term [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Precious metal price trends: London spot gold and silver showed strong performance last week, with no short - term turning signal in the K - line [2]. - Factors influencing price: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation rebounded slightly after Tuesday due to economic data, and the competition for the Fed Chairman candidate continued to ferment, with all three candidates being dovish supporters of loose money [2]. - Silver performance: Since the end of November, silver has far outperformed gold, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly due to multiple factors [3]. - Trading logic: Near - term trading logic focuses on the appointment of the new Fed Chairman and economic data's impact on monetary policy expectations. Long - term trading logic involves factors such as the US dollar index, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and investment demand [3][4]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Short - term oscillation is still strong, with different key points for gold and silver [4]. - Support and resistance levels: Given for London spot gold and silver [5]. - Strategy: Unilateral strategy suggests cautious holding of existing long positions, with different approaches for gold and silver [5]. 3.1.3 Interest Rate Cut Expectation Changes - Tables show the changes in interest rate cut expectations in the US from December 2025 to April 2027, including target rates, effective rates, implied overnight rates, and expected interest rate cuts or increases at different meetings [8][11]. 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Event Concerns - Monday: Fed Governor Milan will speak at 22:30, and FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the economic outlook at 23:30. - Wednesday: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give an opening speech at the 2025 Foreign Exchange Market Structure Conference hosted by the New York Fed at 22:05. - Thursday: The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 20:00, and the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision at 21:25. - Friday: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will hold a monetary policy press conference at 14:30, and the Bank of Japan will also announce the interest rate decision [15][16]. 3.2.2 Last Week and This Week's Data Concerns - Last week, the US and China released a series of economic indicators, including non - farm employment, inflation, and consumption data. This week, the US and China are expected to release economic indicators such as construction permits, GDP, and industrial profits [17]. 3.3 Futures and Price Data 3.3.1 International Precious Metal Market - Shows the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of international precious metals such as London gold and silver spot, COMEX gold and silver, and related ETF holdings and CFTC positions [20]. 3.3.2 Domestic Precious Metal Market - Presents the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic precious metals such as SHFE gold and silver futures and related inventories [21]. 3.3.3 US Financial Asset Performance - Displays the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of US financial assets such as the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and major stock indices [21]. 3.3.4 Domestic Financial Market - Shows the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic financial assets such as the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, domestic stock indices, and domestic Treasury yields [22]. 3.3.5 Futures Positions - Includes information on CFTC positions related to gold and silver, and the relationship between domestic futures indices and positions [24][25][27]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Information 3.4.1 FOMC Post - meeting Statements - Compares the FOMC post - meeting statements on December 11, 2025, and October 30, 2025, including fundamental assessment, risk assessment, policy goals, policy decisions, and voting results [30]. 3.4.2 Economic Forecast Tables - Presents the economic forecast tables of the December FOMC, including real GDP growth, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and federal funds rate from 2025 to 2028 and in the long - term [31]. 3.4.3 US CPI and Related Data - Displays the US CPI data by category, including food, energy, and core CPI, and shows the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [37]. 3.5 Sensitive Demand and Valuation 3.5.1 Sensitive Demand - ETF Investment Demand - Includes information on the relationship between gold and silver long - term fund holdings and prices, as well as the holdings of Chinese TOP3 gold ETFs and Huaan Gold ETF [47][48]. 3.5.2 Valuation Anchoring - Related Assets - Covers the COMEX gold - silver ratio, the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and other related assets and indicators [49][51][52]. 3.5.3 Global Major Exchange Inventories - Shows the inventories of gold and silver in LBMA, COMEX, and SHFE, as well as the total inventories of gold and silver in multiple exchanges [68][70][71].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate, aligning with market expectations, bringing the total cuts for the year to 75 basis points, indicating a potential slowdown in rate cuts for the following year [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% marks the third consecutive cut this year, totaling 75 basis points for 2023 and 175 basis points since September of the previous year [2][3] - There was a notable internal dissent within the Federal Reserve, with three officials voting against the rate cut, indicating a higher level of disagreement regarding the extent of the cuts than previously anticipated [2][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Federal Reserve's economic outlook has become more optimistic, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 raised to 1.7% and 2.3% respectively, while inflation expectations have been slightly adjusted downward [4] - The core service inflation rate has decreased from 4.3% to 3.5% from January to September, suggesting a trend of easing inflation pressures, particularly influenced by the housing market [8] Group 3: Labor Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest in four years, and a decline in private sector jobs reported [7] - The labor market's deterioration is raising the necessity for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as the overall employment situation remains fragile [7] Group 4: Future Policy Directions - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a pause in rate cuts but left the possibility of a cut in January open, emphasizing the importance of upcoming economic data [5] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower rates in the first half of 2026, contingent on the labor market's recovery and inflation trends [9] Group 5: Global Monetary Policy Context - The global monetary policy landscape is diverging, with the Federal Reserve in a rate-cutting cycle while other major central banks are in a holding pattern, reflecting varying economic conditions and inflation outlooks [10][12] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair could influence future monetary policy directions, with current expectations leaning towards continued easing [10]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its third interest rate cut of the year, lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking a total reduction of 175 basis points since September 2024 [1] - Manulife believes the Fed has shifted from an aggressive easing policy to a cautious observation stance, with a dovish outlook for the medium term, predicting three additional rate cuts in 2026 [1] - Fed Chairman Powell described the current interest rate level as being within a "neutral" range, indicating that monetary policy is no longer tightening [1] Group 2 - The FOMC dot plot shows that only 4 out of 19 officials predict the rate will fall below 3% by 2026, suggesting that the market expects a maximum of two rate cuts next year [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly adopted a dovish stance, surprising the market [3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 0.25% interest rate cut, marking the third consecutive reduction of 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [3] - The FOMC's decision to purchase $40 billion in U.S. Treasury securities monthly starting Friday aims to lower short-term financing costs and rebuild financial system reserves, which caught the market off guard [3] Group 2 - February gold futures rose by $20.40 to $4,245.00 per ounce during the U.S. trading session, benefiting from increased technical buying and the Fed's dovish signals [1] - The next upside price target for February gold futures is to close above the solid resistance level of $4,433.00, while the downside target for bears is to push prices below the solid support level of $4,100.00 [4] - Initial resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,277.70, followed by $4,300.00, while initial support is at the overnight low of $4,231.20 and the weekly low of $4,197.80 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the overall tone was less hawkish than the market anticipated, indicating a more dovish stance [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points marks the first direct inclusion of a bond purchase plan in the policy statement since the liquidity crisis in early 2020, which analysts interpret as a clear dovish signal [1]. - The dot plot revealed that while six members supported maintaining rates next year, only two dissenters were present, which was below market expectations for a more hawkish stance [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Projections - Bloomberg's chief economist Anna Wong noted that the overall tone was dovish, with the committee raising growth expectations while lowering inflation forecasts, maintaining the dot plot unchanged [4]. - Goldman Sachs' David Mericle highlighted that the decision included subtle hawkish elements but overall aligned with expectations, noting the unusual nature of directly including bond purchases in the statement [4]. Group 3: Labor Market and Economic Uncertainty - Goldman Sachs' Mike Cahill pointed out that the committee maintained the unemployment rate forecast at 4.5% for Q4, suggesting a slowdown in growth, with current unemployment at 4.44% [4]. - Principal Asset Management's Seema Shah expressed skepticism about the Fed's confidence in the economy, predicting a pause to assess the lagging effects of previous tightening policies [8]. Group 4: Policy Uncertainty and Future Leadership - Bianco Research's Jim Bianco mentioned that the upcoming change in Federal Reserve leadership could introduce significant policy variability, as the new chair may be perceived as having a political agenda [7]. - Tikehau Capital's Raphael Thuin noted that the lack of visibility in data forces policymakers to balance between weak labor signals and demand driving inflation down, leading to greater policy uncertainty [6].

Group 1 - Global central bank policies are experiencing rare divergence, with investors betting on potential interest rate hikes in the Eurozone as early as next year, while the US is expected to continue lowering rates [1][4] - The swap market indicates that the likelihood of the European Central Bank raising rates by 2026 has surpassed the possibility of cuts, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts [1][4] - The divergence in policies may exacerbate the decline of the US dollar, which has already fallen over 8% against a basket of currencies this year [1][7] Group 2 - Economic data supports the hawkish shift in Europe and commodity currency countries, while the Federal Reserve's dovish path appears set, with expectations of rate cuts in the upcoming meetings [7] - Analysts note that the narrowing interest rate gap between the US and other major economies could lead to a revaluation of the dollar, particularly if the Fed maintains a dovish stance [7] - Strong economic data in regions like the Eurozone reduces the incentive for non-US central banks to cut rates further, potentially leading to a challenging year for the dollar if the Fed continues its rate cuts alone [7] Group 3 - In Canada, strong employment data has led traders to price in a slight possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada early next year [9] - In Australia, robust household spending data has made the possibility of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia in February more plausible, though still considered low [9] - The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise rates at least twice by 2026, while the Bank of England is anticipated to lower rates but only slightly in the near term [9]

Core Viewpoint - International silver prices are experiencing fluctuations, with recent data supporting a bullish outlook due to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Market Data - As of Thursday, international silver prices are reported at $58.54 per ounce, with a peak of $58.75 and a low of $58.28 during the trading session [1] - The ADP employment report for November indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs, contrasting with market expectations of an increase of 40,000 jobs, which has heightened the significance of this data [1] - The market anticipates an 89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Following the ADP data release, international silver prices reached a historical high of $58.98 before retreating to close at $58.45 per ounce [2] - Despite a dip to a daily low of $57.54, the upward trend in silver prices remains intact, although a "moderate divergence" between price movements and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may indicate a potential pullback [2] - If a pullback occurs, the initial support area is projected to be between $53.80 and $54.00, with further testing of the 50-day moving average at $50.25 [2] - Conversely, a strong buying momentum that breaks through the $59.00 level could target $60.00, potentially setting new historical highs [2]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones turning positive while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced slight declines [1] - Major tech stocks mostly fell, with Nvidia and Amazon dropping over 1% and Microsoft declining nearly 3% due to reported reductions in AI software sales quotas amid customer reluctance [3] - Netflix shares fell by 6% following the sale of 375,470 shares by its chairman Reed Hastings [3] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective surge, with Bitcoin rising above $92,000, reflecting a 3.89% increase [6][7] - Ethereum also experienced a significant rise of 6.67%, reaching $3,085, while other cryptocurrencies like Solana and XRP saw increases of 6.69% and 4.23% respectively [7] Economic Indicators - The U.S. "small non-farm" data exceeded expectations, indicating a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for November [6] - The market is beginning to feel the impact of the potential new Federal Reserve chair, with Kevin Hassett being the leading candidate for the position, which may lead to a more dovish monetary policy [8]