Core Viewpoint - The international silver price experienced fluctuations, closing at $38.13 per ounce, up 0.64%, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, reinforcing a dovish outlook on the economy [1][2]. Silver ETF Holdings - As of August 21, 2025, the silver ETF holdings amounted to 15,277.52 tons, a decrease of 28.24 tons from the previous trading day [2]. - The total value of the silver ETF holdings was approximately $1,844,606.11 million, reflecting a slight decline from the previous day's value of $1,823,929.83 million [2]. Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes revealed that nearly all officials supported the decision to keep interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5%, despite two dissenting votes advocating for a rate cut [3][4]. - Officials expressed concerns about the potential for rising inflation due to increased import costs, with some suggesting that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices may be less severe than anticipated [3][4]. Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The silver market is currently experiencing a bullish sentiment, with expectations of potential upward movement towards previous highs around $38.5 [5][6]. - Key support levels for silver are identified at $37.70 and $37.50, while resistance levels are noted at $38.20 and $38.50 [6].

Group 1 - Gold futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange reached a historic high of $3534.10 per ounce on August 8, driven by new U.S. tariffs on imported gold bars [1] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars will be classified under a higher tariff code, impacting market expectations [1] - The decision has raised concerns among gold traders, as the 1-kilogram gold bar is the most common trading form in the largest gold futures market [1] Group 2 - President Trump nominated Stephen Moore to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board, which may influence future trade policies [2] - JPMorgan's report predicts a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, followed by three additional cuts, due to signs of weakness in the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% during its latest monetary policy meeting [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July meeting, despite President Trump's calls for a rate cut [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision disregarded President Trump's request for a rate cut, indicating significant internal divisions among its members [3]. - The members of the Federal Reserve generally fall into three camps regarding monetary policy: doves advocating for rate cuts and hawks opposing them [3]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - It is not uncommon for different members to express varying opinions; however, statistical results show that it has been a long time since two or more members voted against each other in the same meeting [5][10]. - The occurrence of two members voting against each other in the same meeting is rare, with the last instance dating back to 1993 [14]. Group 3: Implications of the Vote - The two members who voted against the decision were both appointed by President Trump, highlighting potential political influences within the Federal Reserve [16]. - Following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's tone shifted towards a more hawkish stance, leading to a decrease in market expectations for a rate cut in September from 65% to 40% [18]. - The internal complexities and uncertainties within the Federal Reserve have emerged as significant challenges [20].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler on August 8 allows President Trump to seek a successor sooner than anticipated, potentially increasing his influence over the Federal Reserve's operations [2][6]. Group 1: Resignation Details - Kugler's term was originally set to end on January 31, and she was appointed by former President Biden. Her resignation letter expressed honor in serving during a critical time for inflation control and labor market resilience [2][4]. - Kugler's absence from the July FOMC meeting was unusual, and her lack of a substitute for voting raised questions about her departure [2]. Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve - Trump's comments suggest that Kugler's resignation may be linked to disagreements with Fed Chair Powell on interest rates, although this claim lacks strong evidence [2][6]. - The vacancy left by Kugler could provide Trump with an opportunity to reshape the Federal Reserve, especially as he seeks candidates for Powell's position when his term ends in May [6][7]. Group 3: Current Federal Reserve Dynamics - The FOMC recently saw two governors dissenting on the decision to maintain interest rates, a rare occurrence since 1993, indicating potential internal divisions [2][7]. - The current composition of the Federal Reserve may shift towards a more balanced "hawk-dove" dynamic if Trump appoints a dovish candidate to fill Kugler's seat [8][9].

Group 1 - International gold prices showed a rebound, reaching a peak of $3333.93 per ounce before closing at $3326.35, marking a daily increase of approximately 0.36% after a drop to $3302, the lowest since July 9 [1] - The gold market is influenced by multiple key factors, including the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, critical stages in US-China trade negotiations, and fluctuating global risk aversion sentiments [1] - The market is currently in a state of cautious anticipation, with gold trading around $3327.35 as investors await the outcomes of significant risk events [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with the wording of the policy statement being a focal point of attention [3] - Recent economic data presents a mixed picture, with a decrease in job vacancies and hiring, indicating labor market weakness, while consumer confidence rose to 97.2, exceeding expectations [3] - The US Treasury market has seen unusual volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.330%, the lowest since July 3, and a record demand for a $44 billion seven-year Treasury auction, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets [3] Group 3 - The US dollar index rose by 0.30% to 98.91, reaching a high of 99.14, which may limit the upward potential for gold prices [4] - Following the US-China Stockholm talks, both parties agreed to extend the tariff truce, with China confirming efforts to push for the suspension of certain tariffs [4] - Recent trade agreements between the US and the EU, as well as Japan, may influence Federal Reserve decisions, potentially creating space for a dovish shift in policy [4] Group 4 - The gold market is at a critical turning point, with strong support at the $3300 level and short-term resistance around $3350 [5] - The interplay of global trade tensions easing and expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve creates a complex environment for gold prices [5] - The IMF reported a decrease in the effective US tariff rate from 24.4% to 17.3%, but the pass-through effect of tariffs may keep US inflation elevated, presenting unique support for gold [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Portuguese government has nominated Alvaro Santos Pereira, the chief economist of the OECD, to be the next governor of the Bank of Portugal, succeeding Carlos Costa, whose term ended on July 19 [1] Group 1: Appointment Details - Alvaro Santos Pereira will replace Carlos Costa, who was known as a "dove" representative advocating for loose monetary policy within the European Central Bank [1] - The governor of the Bank of Portugal is nominated by the cabinet for a five-year term, which can be renewed once [1] - Carlos Costa had previously expressed a willingness to continue in the role of governor [1] Group 2: Nomination Process - The new nominee must undergo questioning by a parliamentary committee, although this committee does not have the authority to veto the nomination [1] - Following the committee's questioning, the government can proceed with the official appointment of the new governor [1]

Core Viewpoint - The risks to economic growth are still tilted to the downside, as stated by Lagarde, which is not surprising given that trade uncertainties have not changed significantly [1] Group 1 - The dovish stance suggests that the Eurozone may still require additional support from accommodative policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges, particularly due to Trump's ongoing pressure on Powell, leading to a reassessment of the central bank's policy outlook in the market. However, JPMorgan believes that there is no need for excessive concern [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is not a new phenomenon, and its independence is described as a "myth" by JPMorgan's Ilan Benhamou, who notes that such situations have been occurring behind closed doors for decades [3]. - Historical precedents, such as President Johnson's conflict with former Fed Chairman Bill Martin in 1965, illustrate the ongoing tension between political figures and the Fed [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - JPMorgan suggests continuing to invest in the S&P 500 and VIX indices, anticipating that investors will increasingly allocate funds to risk assets like cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence, while uncertainties regarding tariffs, inflation, and Fed policies will heighten market volatility [2]. - As Powell's term nears its end, investors are expected to focus on the policy inclinations of the next Fed chair, with a growing dovish sentiment likely to support further gains in the stock market under expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. Group 3: Legal Implications of Dismissal - If Trump were to dismiss Powell, it would be a historic first in the U.S., likely resulting in a landmark lawsuit that could ultimately require a Supreme Court ruling [5]. - The Federal Reserve Act allows for the removal of board members, including the chair, "for cause," and Trump has suggested potential reasons for dismissal related to the Fed's renovation costs [6]. Group 4: Supreme Court's Position - The Supreme Court previously indicated that Trump cannot dismiss Powell without cause, recognizing the Fed as a "structurally unique quasi-private entity," but left open the possibility for "for cause" dismissals [7]. - Legal experts suggest that even if the court finds the dismissal unlawful, it remains uncertain whether Powell could retain his position, given the court's limitations on providing "equitable relief" for high-ranking officials [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is intensifying pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, potentially aiming to replace him with a more dovish leadership that emphasizes economic growth, amidst rising tensions over the Fed's renovation costs [1][2][10]. Group 1: Pressure on Powell - The Trump administration's pressure on Powell has escalated, focusing on the controversy surrounding the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation as a potential legal basis for his removal [2][4]. - The renovation costs for the Federal Reserve's headquarters have surged by 30%, from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, raising concerns and leading to accusations of mismanagement [3][10]. - White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett has suggested that Trump has the right to dismiss Powell based on "just cause," which may relate to the renovation cost overruns [4][9]. Group 2: Potential Candidates and Market Reactions - Several potential candidates for Powell's position have begun to express support for the Trump administration's views, with some calling for significant reforms within the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - Market analysts warn that the risk of Powell's removal is significantly underestimated, with predictions of a 3-4% drop in the dollar index and a 30-40 basis point sell-off in U.S. Treasuries if he is forced out [10][11]. - The potential dismissal of Powell is viewed as a direct threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could lead to broader instability in global markets [11].

Core Viewpoint - Christopher Waller is recognized as the most suitable candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, balancing between hawkish and dovish stances while adhering to data-driven monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Waller's Qualifications and Market Perception - Waller has gained broad recognition in the market and policy circles for his leadership and economic judgment, making him a trusted figure who aligns with Trump's desire to lower the 10-year Treasury yield [1]. - His approach to monetary policy is characterized by a focus on data, avoiding extreme positions, which has led to a favorable perception among market participants [2][4]. - Waller's communication style, utilizing scenario analysis, enhances market understanding of the Fed's policy responses, further solidifying his reputation as a reliable policymaker [4]. Group 2: Economic Insights and Predictions - Waller has demonstrated a keen ability to anticipate economic trends, such as recognizing the persistent nature of inflation in 2021, which many mainstream forecasters overlooked [2]. - He proposed that it is possible to control inflation through interest rate hikes without triggering massive unemployment, a theory that has proven to align closely with subsequent economic developments [2]. - In discussions about tariffs, Waller acknowledged their inflationary impact but suggested that the effects would be temporary, supporting the case for potential interest rate cuts starting in July [3]. Group 3: Political Dynamics and Strategic Value - Waller's previous appointment by Trump and his non-confrontational stance towards the administration make him a politically acceptable choice for the presidency of the Fed [4][5]. - His nomination could facilitate a smooth transition of leadership, allowing Powell to retire with confidence, as Waller's policies are seen as stable and professional [6]. - The potential for Waller to maintain market trust and avoid significant increases in long-term interest rates aligns with Trump's economic agenda, emphasizing low rates and low inflation [6].