地缘冲突与美联储鹰派交替影响，金价徘徊在十字路口，将何去何从？如何寻找最佳进场？金十研究员 高阳GMA行情分析中，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

周五（6月20日）亚盘时段，现货黄金延续震荡下行节奏继续刷新本周低点至3344美元附近后折返，目前交投于3357美元附近。周四（6月19日），金价在美 联储鹰派立场与地缘政治紧张局势的双重影响下，呈现剧烈震荡，盘中最低触及3347.53美元/盎司，最高达到3387.77美元/盎司，最终收报3370.64美元/盎 司，接近持平。美元指数周四盘中一度冲高至99.16，创逾一周新高，但尾盘回吐涨幅。尽管如此，本周美元指数累计上涨约0.7%，为2月下旬以来最强单周 表现。美元走强通常对以美元计价的黄金价格构成压力，因为美元升值会提高非美元货币持有者购买黄金的成本，从而抑制需求。 周三美联储宣布维持当前利率不变，但其决策者暗示今年借贷成本仍有下降空间。然而，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上明确警告，市场不应过分期待降 息的可能性。他特别指出，特朗普政府即将加征的关税政策可能推高商品价格，导致通胀在夏季回升。鲍威尔的鹰派表态令市场对降息的预期降温，黄金作 为非收益资产，在高利率预期下承压明显。美联储对通胀风险的高度警惕降低了恢复降息的可能性，这对金价构成直接压力。市场普遍认为，高利率环境会 削弱黄金的吸引力，因为投资者更倾 ...

不过，尽管他认为经济和劳动力市场仍然"稳健"，但增长前景与通胀前景一样在迅速恶化。根据美联储 官员的预测，2025-2027年的累计GDP增长率将比去年12月份的预测低约1.25个百分点，累计通胀率将 高出约一个百分点。 转自：金十数据 美联储本周略微转向鹰派，表明其更担心通胀上升而非增长放缓。但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，应谨慎看 待这一前景。 美联储修订后的经济预测显示，官员们预计未来几个季度美国失业率和通胀率将上升，经济增长将放 缓。"滞胀"风险正在上升。 然而，与大多数其他G10央行不同的是，美联储拒绝先发制人地降息，而是选择等待关税引发的通胀前 景更加明朗后再决定下一步行动。 这是可以理解的。特朗普的关税对价格和经济活动的全面影响只有在7月9日之后才能感受到，届时目前 所谓的对等关税暂停期将结束。与此同时，随着以色列和伊朗之间的战争不断升级，新的地缘政治风险 正在上升，推动油价上涨。 在这种背景下，保持政策的"适度"限制性（鲍威尔对美联储当前立场的描述）是合理的。 鲍威尔几乎肯定会淡化或彻底否定这些动机，但它们仍将继续影响投资者对美联储行动的解读。 美联储亦毫无头绪 如果增长和通胀风险大体平衡，为什么官员 ...

本周以来，美股市场经历了中东局势紧张升级及美联储决议的双重指引后，虽然经历波动但震荡幅度没有太剧烈，周四的休市进一步让本周的行情清淡下， 本周至今的美股行情走势偏向于在区间内震荡，以道指为例，本周暂时没有脱离42700至42600的范围。 美联储本周最新的货币政策立场被市场解读为偏向鹰派，周三将指标隔夜利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，决策者暗示今年借贷成本仍有可能下降， 但主席鲍威尔警告不要过分看重这一预测，并表示预计特朗普政府加征的关税将带来"相当高的"通胀。 在新的经济预测中，美联储描绘了一幅美国经济出现温和滞胀的图景，预计今年经济增长将放缓至1.4%，年底失业率将升至4.5%，通胀率将达到3%，远高 于当前水平。决策者仍预计今年将降息50个基点，但认为之后降息步伐会略微放缓，随着通胀回归2%目标的时间拉长，预计2026年和2027年均将只进行一 次25个基点的降息。 主席鲍威尔重申了自己的观点，即央行"最好先了解经济可能的走向，然后再考虑调整我们的政策立场"。美联储决议公布后，美国利率期货市场提高了9月 和10月降息的可能性。在美联储决议后，美国市场随即迎来休市，所以波动暂时修整，但是仓位 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over inflation due to soaring oil prices [1][4][5] - The US dollar index is expected to rise by 0.5%, marking the largest weekly increase in a month, driven by investor fears of potential US military intervention in the region [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the current rebound of the dollar reflects a desire for certainty during turbulent times rather than a reassessment of the US economic fundamentals [4][8] Group 2 - The sharp increase in oil prices has introduced new inflation uncertainties for central banks, complicating their policy decisions between supporting growth and controlling inflation [5] - The Bank of England has expressed vigilance regarding the potential impact of rising oil prices on the UK economy, following a spike of over 10% in oil prices due to recent conflicts [5] - The Swiss National Bank has lowered interest rates for the sixth consecutive time, contributing to expectations of further policy easing from other central banks, which indirectly supports the dollar's strength [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has further bolstered the dollar, with officials still anticipating two rate cuts this year, despite warnings from the Fed Chair not to overemphasize this outlook [6] - Concerns over tariffs and their impact on costs, corporate profit margins, and overall growth continue to weigh on the dollar, which has declined approximately 9% year-to-date [8] - The traditional safe-haven appeal of the dollar is being tested by various factors, including trade policies, rising fiscal deficits, and challenges to US global leadership [8]

截至6月20日亚盘早市，现货黄金开盘报3370.38美元/盎司，日内最高触及3370.43美元，最低下探3344.71美元，最新报价 3346.00美元/盎司，微跌0.7%。当前市场正处于"地缘冲突避险需求"与"美联储鹰派政策压制"的博弈临界点，多空力量胶 着下，金价面临关键方向选择。 | - 现货黄金 XAUUSD | | | 000 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3346.98 -23.65 (-0.70%) | | | | | ● 开市 最后更新:11:15:30 | | | | | 报价 资讯 相关品种 | | | | | 昨收 | 3370.63 | 最高 | 3370.43 | | 开盘 | 3370.38 | 最低 | 3344.71 | | 买入 | 3347.01 | 卖出 | 3347.21 | 一、基本面：地缘冲突升级与美联储政策路径的双重拉扯 1.中东局势持续恶化，但避险情绪边际递减 6月19日凌晨，以色列对伊朗阿拉克核设施发动空袭，伊朗随后以48小时内最大规模导弹袭击回应，造成以色列特拉维 夫、贝尔谢巴等地50余人受伤，苏鲁卡医院等关键设施损毁。尽管冲突 ...

美联储的货币政策一直是影响金价走势的核心因素之一。周三(6月18日)，美联储宣布维持当前利率不 变，但其决策者暗示今年借贷成本仍有下降空间。然而，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上明确警告， 市场不应过分期待降息的可能性。他特别指出，特朗普政府即将加征的关税政策可能推高商品价格，导 致通胀在夏季回升。鲍威尔的鹰派表态令市场对降息的预期降温，黄金作为非收益资产，在高利率预期 下承压明显。 周五（6月20日）亚市早盘，现货黄金短线走低跌破3360美元关口，当前金价的走势受到多重因素的复 杂博弈影响，鉴于黄金价格在3450附近出现了"吞没看空"顶部信号，KDJ死叉运行，仍需提防金价的震 荡下行风险。 【要闻速递】 周四现货黄金日线十字K线收平，围绕在3388处承压后走低至3347.整体符合昨日给出的震荡区间，昨日 在3380-3390间分批做空看至3350先行减仓。日线进入收缩震荡，空间进一步收敛，今日周线收官，暂 时还没看出单边量能，整体保持震荡收尾的节奏。 澳新银行大宗商品策略师Soni Kumari分析称，美联储对通胀风险的高度警惕降低了恢复降息的可能 性，这对金价构成直接压力。市场普遍认为，高利率环境会削弱黄金 ...

Group 1 - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.61% to $3387.4 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.5% to $36.36 per ounce [4][5] - As of the latest report, gold prices continued to weaken, trading at $3381.30 per ounce [4] - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates while signaling a hawkish stance has heightened market concerns over inflation and tariffs, leading to a shift of funds towards dollar assets, which puts pressure on gold [5] Group 2 - A significant explosion was reported in Tehran, with multiple locations in the city affected, including military bases in the Lavizan area [6][7] - Iran's airspace has been closed until noon on June 20 due to the current security situation, resulting in the suspension of all commercial flights [11][12] - Iran claims to have shot down two Israeli "Heron" drones in recent days, indicating ongoing military tensions [9][10] Group 3 - The White House announced that President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to attack Iran, with ongoing communications between the U.S. and Iran [17][19] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel has the capability to destroy all of Iran's nuclear facilities and has already destroyed over half of Iran's missile launchers [20][21] - Since June 13, Israel has conducted large-scale airstrikes against various Iranian targets, resulting in significant casualties [23] Group 4 - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed readiness for high-level meetings and a willingness to meet with Putin, indicating a desire to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict during Trump's presidency [24][25]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no change, aligning with market expectations [1] - Changes in the June FOMC statement include the removal of "recent months" to emphasize the long-term low unemployment rate, a modification of the economic outlook uncertainty, and the return of Kansas City Fed President Esther George to the voting committee [1] - The Fed raised the median interest rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 3.6% and 3.4%, indicating a slowdown in the rate cut process in the coming years [1] Group 2 - Following the June rate decision, the US dollar index rose, closing at 98.85 on June 18 and reaching a high of 99.16 on June 19, reflecting market expectations for rate cuts in September and December [2] - There is a potential for the dollar index to rebound to the 99-100 range due to adjustments in interest rate expectations, especially if inflation risks increase from oil prices and tariffs [2] Group 3 - Precious metals experienced a decline post-Fed meeting, with London gold falling to 3369 yuan per ounce and silver dropping below 37 dollars per ounce [3]

在美联储鹰派政策压制下，黄金多头还有机会吗？能否守住关键支撑？Richard正在直播解析关键位， 点击马上观看！ 相关链接 正在直播解析黄金走势 ...