1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The medium - to long - term upward trend remains unchanged, but there is a game in short - to medium - term drivers. Trump's policy combination will push up the US federal government debt, weaken the US dollar credit, and with factors like the approaching Fed rate cut, complex global geopolitical situation, and continued central bank gold purchases, the gold price will rise in the long run. However, in the short - to medium - term, factors such as the impact of tariff policies on the US economy, the Fed's rate - cut timing and space, and the potential rebound of the US dollar index will affect the gold price [1][17][18]. - Silver: The medium - term logic is expected to return to the fundamentals, and there will still be downward pressure in the second half of the year. After the recent significant catch - up, the silver price will be influenced by its commodity attributes. With an increase in global supply, a decrease in demand, and a narrowing supply - demand gap in 2025, coupled with risks to industrial and photovoltaic silver demand, the silver price is expected to be weak, and the gold - silver ratio may remain high [2][19][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1. 2025 H1 Market Review - Gold: In H1 2025, Trump's policies increased market uncertainty, weakened the US dollar, and with central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, the gold price rose strongly. Gold ETF inflows, especially in April, were a key driving force. After April, the gold price fluctuated at a high level due to policy adjustments and market sentiment changes. COMEX gold rose about 28.2%, and SHFE gold rose about 26.1% [8][9][10]. - Silver: It generally followed the gold price but was restricted by its industrial attributes. After being sold off in early April, it rebounded and reached a new high in late May and early June. COMEX silver rose about 22.7%, and SHFE silver rose about 18.7% [10]. 3.2 2. 2025 H2 Precious Metals Market Outlook - Gold: The long - term upward trend remains unchanged, supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar credit, continued central bank gold purchases, and the approaching Fed rate cut. However, in the short - to medium - term, there are uncertainties in the US economy, Fed policy, and the US dollar index, which will affect the gold price [17][18][19]. - Silver: The medium - term logic will return to the fundamentals. With an increase in supply, a decrease in demand, and risks to industrial and photovoltaic demand, the silver price is expected to be weak, and the gold - silver ratio may remain high [19][74]. 3.3 3. Main Macroeconomic Influencing Factors Analysis 3.3.1 Medium - to Long - Term Perspective: Gold's Upward Trend Remains Unchanged - The tariff policy and fiscal deficit expansion will weaken the US dollar credit, and the demand for hedging against the US dollar credit risk will support the gold price [20][21]. - Global central banks will continue to purchase gold due to the increasing US dollar credit risk and geopolitical uncertainties, providing support for the gold price [22]. - The market's hedging demand will remain due to the uncertainty of tariff policies and geopolitical situations [23]. 3.3.2 Short - to Medium - Term Perspective: Driving Forces Are in a Game - **Impact of Tariff Policy Negotiations and Tax Cuts on the US Economy**: The tariff policy may cause the US economy to weaken, boosting the precious metals market. However, a controllable trade agreement and the implementation of tax and expenditure bills may offset the negative impact on the precious metals market. The US employment market is relatively stable but has hidden risks, inflation may rise in the second half of the year, and consumer spending and PMI show signs of slowdown [30][31][41]. - **Approaching Fed Rate Cut but Limited Space**: The Fed is expected to cut rates, but the timing may be late and the space limited, which will support the precious metals market but also restrict the short - term upward space of the gold price [44][45][48]. - **Be Wary of the Risk of a Temporary Rebound in the US Dollar**: Although the US dollar index has declined, factors such as the high 10 - year US Treasury yield and the US's relative economic advantage may limit its further decline and even cause a rebound, which will suppress the gold price [56][57]. 3.4 4. Fundamental Influencing Factors Analysis 3.4.1 Gold: The Driving Force of Key Factor ETFs May Weaken in H2 - **Supply**: In Q1 2025, global gold supply increased slightly, with an increase in mined gold and a decrease in recycled gold. Gold inventories in major exchanges generally increased [60]. - **Demand**: In Q1 2025, global gold demand increased, with a significant increase in investment demand, especially gold ETF inflows. In May, gold ETFs had a net outflow. In H2, economic uncertainties will support gold investment demand, but the driving force of gold ETFs may weaken, while central bank gold purchases will still support the price [65][66]. 3.4.2 Silver: The Medium - Term Logic Is Expected to Return to the Fundamentals - **Supply**: The global silver supply is expected to increase in 2025, and the visible inventory has increased. The US may impose tariffs on key metals, but the inventory has not decreased significantly [74][75]. - **Demand**: The global silver demand is expected to decrease in 2025, with a decline in physical demand in various fields and a slowdown in photovoltaic silver demand. However, investment demand is expected to increase, which will support the silver price to some extent. The silver price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the gold - silver ratio may remain high [80][81][88].

Group 1 - The State Council's executive meeting emphasized the importance of constructing a new model for real estate development to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality growth in the real estate market, focusing on long-term strategies and systematic policy support [3] - Guangzhou plans to optimize real estate policies by fully canceling purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price limits, while also lowering down payment ratios and interest rates to better meet housing consumption needs [4] - The People's Bank of China announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of six months [5] Group 2 - In May, new RMB deposits exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with experts attributing the differences in deposit and loan growth to the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures [6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission published the "Procedures for Programmatic Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)," which will take effect on October 9, 2025, to enhance the regulation of programmatic trading [29] - The State Council meeting reviewed measures to optimize the collection of drugs and medical supplies, aiming to promote standardized and institutionalized procurement practices [34] Group 3 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address the prevention and governance of telecom network fraud, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to tackle the issue [35] - The market supervision authority announced ongoing efforts to strengthen the recall of defective consumer goods sold online, ensuring consumer rights and market order [37] - Nezha Automobile has officially entered bankruptcy reorganization procedures, indicating a significant development in the company's financial status [38][39]

Financial Data - In May, the social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year; new RMB loans were nearly 620 billion yuan [2] - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but up 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year [2] Regulatory Updates - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the "Procedures for the Management of Program Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)," which mandates regular checks on program traders' reported information, focusing on high-frequency traders [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that CATL's H-shares will be included in the southbound trading list of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective from the next trading day [2] Industry Oversight - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized increased antitrust enforcement in the pharmaceutical sector to protect public health and ensure affordable medication [3] - A joint notice from 14 ministries outlined key points for correcting misconduct in the pharmaceutical sales and medical services sectors, focusing on enhancing regulatory responsibilities and addressing corruption [4] Market Measures - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued a notice urging market participants to implement risk control measures amid volatile international conditions [5] - The Beijing Stock Exchange extended the exemption from transaction fees for bond trading until December 31, 2026 [7] Company News - Huayang New Materials announced it is not involved in the rare earth permanent magnet sector [7] - China National Petroleum Engineering signed a contract worth 1.601 billion USD for the Atawi GPP project [7] - Cheng Tian Wei Ye highlighted risks related to the commercialization of new technologies and products [7] - Honghui Fruits and Vegetables will have its controlling shareholder change to Shenze Ruitai and will resume trading on June 16 [7] - Zhuhai International Electric Power signed two strategic cooperation agreements for solar projects in Zambia [7] - Pan-Asia Micro-Optics plans to establish a subsidiary in Changzhou to enhance its medical application layout [8] - Dongshan Precision intends to invest up to 5.935 billion yuan in Solstice Optoelectronics to expand its optical communication layout [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin price surpassed $110,000 in May 2025, equivalent to approximately 800,000 RMB, marking a historical high and raising questions about its value and nature [1][3] Group 1: Bitcoin Fundamentals - Bitcoin was created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto and operates on a decentralized blockchain technology, which allows for secure and unalterable transaction records [1][3] - The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, giving it an anti-inflationary characteristic, leading some to refer to it as "digital gold" [1][3] Group 2: Price Surge Drivers - U.S. policy developments, particularly the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, have injected liquidity into the digital currency market, encouraging institutional investment [3] - Companies, including Strategy, have accumulated over $50 billion in Bitcoin, increasing market demand [3] - Rising macroeconomic risks, such as the U.S. debt crisis and geopolitical tensions, have led investors to view Bitcoin as a hedge, decoupling its price movements from traditional assets like gold [3] Group 3: Mining Challenges - Mining Bitcoin requires significant computational power, with a high-end home computer yielding only 0.0018 Bitcoin per day, necessitating 556 days to mine a single coin [5] - The cost of electricity for mining can exceed the value of the Bitcoin mined, making it economically unfeasible for average individuals [6] Group 4: Regulatory Landscape in China - China has banned Bitcoin mining due to its high energy consumption, which contradicts the country's carbon reduction goals [9] - The financial risks associated with Bitcoin's price volatility and its use in illicit activities have led to stringent regulations [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - Predictions for Bitcoin's price by the end of 2025 range from $150,000 to $200,000, but these projections come with significant risks related to policy changes and market competition [11] - The narrative surrounding Bitcoin reflects both a technological revolution and a speculative market, suggesting that for most individuals, the dream of quick wealth is unrealistic [11]

Group 1 - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has a holding of 936.51 tons, which remains unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The ETF's holding data is updated around 5:30 AM Beijing time from Tuesday to Saturday, reflecting the previous day's holdings [4] Group 2 - Recent changes in the ETF holdings include an increase of 0.86 tons and a decrease of 2.29 tons on specific dates, indicating fluctuations in investor sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices in 2023, from 620 CNY per gram to a peak of 836 CNY per gram, has sparked a nationwide investment trend in gold, reminiscent of the "golden aunt" phenomenon in 2013, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2] Historical Context of Gold Price Surges First Phase (1970-1980) - Gold prices surged from 35 USD to 850 USD, marking a 2300% increase following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4] - This phase led to global central banks adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold purchases and challenging the dollar's dominance [5] - Gold production entered an expansion cycle, with countries like South Africa and Russia ramping up mining activities [5] - The oil crisis and high inflation positioned gold as a key asset against currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve was compelled to adopt aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 20%, to curb inflation, which ultimately ended the gold bull market but initiated the development of modern financial derivatives like gold futures [5] Second Phase (2008-2011) - Following the 2008 financial crisis, gold experienced a second bull market with a 166% increase [7] - The demand for gold as a safe haven led to the democratization of investment, exemplified by the rise of gold ETFs and regular central bank gold purchases [7] - The consumer market saw structural changes, with high gold prices driving a shift towards lightweight jewelry and innovations in gold leasing and collateral financing [7] Third Phase (2018-Present) - The current bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy conflicts, has seen gold prices rise over 100% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Increased market volatility and speculative trading in futures markets have been observed, with COMEX gold futures premiums reaching 60 USD per ounce and physical inventory surging by 18.6 million ounces in a month [9] - Competition from alternative assets has become more pronounced, with significant growth in platinum orders and a 30% increase in sales of K-gold and silver jewelry in China [9] - Fluctuations in monetary policy have led to a shift in the correlation between gold and U.S. equities, reflecting gold's dual role as a safe haven and a risk asset [9]

对于今天黄金走势的看法！ 黄金已将50日均线远远甩在身后，更别提200日均线了。上一次黄金如此大幅高于200日均线交易还是在2020年（当时超 出约25%）。那次"脱钩"之后，黄金迎来了长达3年的"冷静期"。与此同时，黄金的周线RSI（相对强弱指数）正逼近历 史上最超买的几个时刻之一。 但值得一提的是，当前基金经理持有的黄金净多头合约处于一年内低点，仅位于过去水平的60%至70%区间。在这波逼 空行情中，黄金ETF显然在持续吸引资金流入。加上这市场给大家的感觉就是很高了，做多瑟瑟发抖，但价格就是不 跌，还是保持强势节奏，没办法的强。目前来看，价格还是在慢涨当中，这样来说，继续破位新高也只是一脚的事。 所谓一个靠谱的人，凡事有交代，件件有着落，事事有回音，兴言一直致力于市场，唯有坚持写出对投资者有用的分 析，少错一单，那么我相信日久见方能见人心！ 周二(4月22日)亚洲交易时段，国际黄金价格保持创纪录涨势，最高触及3495美元，美国总统特朗普批评美联储主席以及 对贸易紧张局势可能阻碍经济增长的担忧推动了对避险资产的需求。在昨日暴涨近100美元冲破3400关口后，日内金价 又进一步攀升超80美元，最高触及3494 ...