经济观察网 12月1日，日本股市暴跌，日经225指数暴跌1000点，而日元上涨。美股盘前全线跳水。加 密市场暴跌。暴跌的背后，是日本央行行长植田和男周一表示，日本央行将在下次货币政策会议上"权 衡加息的利弊"，这是他迄今为止对本月可能加息发出的最强烈信号。在他发表上述言论后，市场开始 押注日本央行将在12月18日至19日的会议上加息，日元和日本国债收益率随之走高。 ...

【导读】黑天鹅，日本准备加息，股市跌了1000点 大家好，关注一下日本飞出的一只"黑天鹅"。 12月1日，日本股市暴跌，日经225指数暴跌1000点，而日元上涨。 美股盘前全线跳水。 根据隔夜指数掉期（OIS）定价，在植田和男周一上午讲话后，交易员认为日本央行在12月19日会议上 加息的概率约为76%，高于周五的约58%；而到明年1月之前加息的概率，已升至约94%。 有分析师称："植田和男这次的演讲，听上去就是在为12月加息做准备。他甚至还提到了政府，表明他 很可能已经取得了政府方面对这一举措的理解。" 日本政府部分经济顾问则认为，把加息放在明年1月更合适，这样可以避免在政府上月刚推出疫情放宽 以来规模最大的财政刺激方案后，向市场传递"前脚扩张财政、后脚马上收紧货币"的混乱信号。 不过，通胀持续偏强以及日元疲软，都在为更早加息提供支持。植田和男讲话后，日元一度升至155.49 兑1美元，从发言前的约155.80水平进一步走强，但汇率仍接近去年曾四度触发政府干预的区间。 虽然日本央行一再强调并不以特定汇率水平为目标，但也承认，日元走弱会推高进口成本，进而加大通 胀压力。在生活成本高企令日本民众不满情绪升温的背景 ...

Group 1 - Japan's 3-month government bond yield surged over 34%, while the 10-year bond yield reached 1.85%, indicating a significant drop in bond prices across all maturities [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that the central bank will consider the pros and cons of raising policy rates at the next monetary policy meeting, with a current market expectation of a 62% chance of a rate hike in December [2] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to increase short-term debt issuance to fund Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's economic stimulus plan, adding 300 billion yen (approximately 1.92 billion USD) in 2-year and 5-year bonds, which is expected to put pressure on short-term Japanese government bonds [3] Group 2 - The negative impact of Japan's bond market turmoil was reflected in the U.S. stock market, with futures indicating a broad decline, while the Asia-Pacific markets also showed weakness [4] - Despite the turmoil, a weakening U.S. dollar may mitigate the impact on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as it supports commodity prices and enhances liquidity in emerging markets [4] - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend in December, with a focus on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, which will likely outline key economic policies for 2026 [4]

【导读】 黑天鹅，日本准备加息，股市跌了1000点 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下日本飞出的一只"黑天鹅"。 12月1日，日本股市暴跌，日经225指数暴跌1000点，而日元上涨。 美股盘前全线跳水。 | 加密市场暴跌。 | | --- | 暴跌的背后，是日本央行行长植田和男周一表示，日本央行将在下次货币政策会议上"权衡加息的利弊"，这是他迄今为止对本月可能加息 发出的最强烈信号。 在他发表上述言论后，市场开始押注日本央行将在12月18日至19日的会议上加息，日元和日本国债收益率随之走高。 植田 和男12月 1日在日本中部名古屋向当地企业界发表演讲时表示，日银（ 日本央行 ）将通过审视内外经济、通胀以及金融市场状况，" 权衡上调政策利率的利弊，并在适当时机作出决定 "。他补充称，即便加息，也只是对宽松力度的调整， 实际利率仍将处于非常低的水平 。 在市场对12月加息预期显著升温的情况下， 如果日本央行本月最终没有行动，也可能再次招致对其沟通不力的批评 。部分经济学家就曾指 责日本央行在2024年8月加息前"预热不足"，从而引发了全球市场的大幅震荡。 在日本央行加息环境逐步成熟的同时，被视为更重视货币宽松 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing significant turmoil, with a sharp rise in yields leading to a corresponding drop in bond prices, influenced by potential changes in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - The yield on Japan's 3-month government bonds surged over 34%, while the 10-year bond yield reached 1.85%, marking a notable increase [1][2]. - The 2-year government bond yield has risen to its highest level since 2008, indicating a broader trend of increasing yields across various maturities [2]. - The market is anticipating a 62% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in its December 19 policy meeting, with expectations rising to nearly 90% by January 2026 [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that while there are signs of weakness in the global economy, Japan's economy is gradually recovering, albeit with some soft spots [2]. - Ueda emphasized the importance of wage negotiations and indicated that if economic forecasts are met, a rate hike could be on the table, although the overall financial environment would remain accommodative [2]. Group 3: Government Debt Issuance - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to increase short-term debt issuance to fund Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's economic stimulus plan, adding 300 billion yen (approximately 1.92 billion USD) each for 2-year and 5-year bonds, and increasing treasury bills by 6.3 trillion yen [3]. Group 4: Market Impact - The turmoil in Japan's bond market has negatively impacted U.S. stock futures, leading to a broad sell-off, while Asian markets also showed weakness [4]. - However, the weakening U.S. dollar may mitigate the impact on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as it supports commodity prices and enhances liquidity in emerging markets [4]. - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend in December, with potential volatility, while Hong Kong stocks may experience a gradual upward trend influenced by signals from the Federal Reserve [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, reiterated that the Japanese economy has achieved a "moderate recovery," despite a temporary negative GDP growth in Q3 2025 [1] Economic Outlook - Ueda emphasized that uncertainties regarding the economic outlook are diminishing as companies continue to raise wages and prices, alongside a gradual recovery in the overseas economy [1] - The minimum wage for FY2025 is expected to increase by over 5% year-on-year, likely leading to broader corporate wage hikes [1] Inflation Expectations - Core consumer inflation is projected to temporarily fall below 2% in the first half of FY2026, before accelerating again [1] - Ueda highlighted that inflation levels are expected to align with the 2% target during the latter half of the Bank of Japan's three-year outlook period [1] - Attention is required on recent price trends that may influence inflation expectations and potential inflation risks [1] Monetary Policy - Ueda stated that it is necessary to adjust the monetary easing measures appropriately to achieve price stability, indicating that any interest rate hikes should neither be too late nor too early [1] - Even with potential interest rate increases, a loose financial environment will be maintained, with rate hikes viewed as "moderately easing the accelerator" rather than "slamming the brakes" [1] Data Review and External Risks - The Bank of Japan will review various data in its December meeting to assess domestic and international economic activities and price conditions, weighing the pros and cons of interest rate hikes [2] - Despite signs of weakness in the overseas economy, a gradual recovery is noted, and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the global economy has not been significantly observed [2] - Actual interest rates remain at very low levels, and exchange rate movements are more likely to affect domestic prices due to changes in corporate pricing behavior [2]

日本国债又崩了！ 刚刚，日本3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，10年期国债收益率一度达到了1.85%，各期限国债全线暴涨，这对应的就是日本国债的全线暴跌。与此同时，美股期指全 线杀跌，日经指数大幅跳水。 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，可能与日本息口和美联储的异动有关。日本央行行长植田和男表示，将在下次货币政策会议上考虑提高政策利率的利弊。 而关于美联储主席人事问题亦被市场关注，甚至再度波及美联储的独立性。 全线崩跌 日本国债市场掀起大浪。该国3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，对应的是其国债暴跌。日本10年期国债收益率上升5个基点至1.85%。日本2年期国债收益率升至2008年 以来最高水平。与此同时，日经指数一度暴跌近2%。 日本央行行长植田和男表示，海外经济表现出一些疲软，但整体上逐渐增长。迄今为止，人们担心的美国关税对全球经济的影响还没有实现。在关税政策的影响 下，日本央行认为海外经济将暂时放缓的观点没有改变。日本经济已经适度复苏，尽管看到一些疲软的部分。 他表示，将在下次货币政策会议上考虑提高政策利率的利弊。确认薪资谈判的初步势头至关重要。预计企业利润将整体保持在高位。如果经济展望实现，将加息。 实际利率 ...

2025 年 12 月 1 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 1 上周五中国股市涨跌互现。港股下跌，医疗保健、能源与地产建筑领跌，原 材料、可选消费与信息科技领涨，南向资金净买入 27.3 亿港币，阿里巴巴、 泡泡玛特与小米集团净买入居前，中芯国际、紫金矿业与华虹半导体净卖出 最多。A 股上涨，工贸综合、可选消费零售与国防军工涨幅居前，银行、煤 炭与医药生物跌幅最大。国债收益率走平，人民币兑美元走强。 中国 11 月制造业 PMI 环比回升至 49.2，其中出口指数回升和高新技术制造 业 PMI 连续 10个月扩张是亮点，产成品库存指数再度下降表明需求疲弱推动 企业去库存。非制造业 PMI 小幅回落。 东京核心通胀超预期支持日本央行进一步加息。11 月东京核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%超出市场预期，电力价格上涨速度加快，抵消食品价格涨幅下降的影响。 近期日元走弱可能加剧日本通胀压力，增加了 12月加息概率。日本批准 18.3 万亿日元补充预算，发债计划中短债占比显著上升，因长债收益率持续上升。 德国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.3%低于预期 ...

Group 1: Domestic Market Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November increased to 49.2%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the manufacturing sector [2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The central bank reiterated its commitment to prohibiting virtual currencies and combating illegal financial activities related to them [2] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is seeking public opinion on the draft implementation measures for the supervision of the securities and futures market, aiming to enhance regulatory standardization [3] - The CSRC also released a draft announcement regarding the pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs), outlining product definitions and regulatory responsibilities [4] Group 3: International Market Insights - Tokyo's core CPI for November rose by 2.8% year-on-year, slightly above market expectations, driven by increasing electricity prices [5] - Japan's industrial output increased by 1.4% month-on-month in October, exceeding market forecasts, primarily due to strong automobile production [5] Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - On November 28, the bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond decreasing by 1.50 basis points to 1.8290% [10] - The secondary market for credit bonds saw significant price deviations, with some bonds experiencing price changes exceeding 10% [12] Group 5: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw major indices rise, with the China Securities Index for convertible bonds increasing by 0.68% on November 28 [22] - A total of 401 convertible bonds were traded, with 338 experiencing price increases [22]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that real interest rates are very low, and even if the policy interest rate is raised, the overall environment will remain accommodative [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The USD/JPY exchange rate declined following Ueda's remarks [1] - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds increased by 4 basis points to 1.84%, marking the highest level since June 2008 [1] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index saw an expanded increase of 1% [1]