Group 1 - Copper prices declined on May 16, but are expected to rise this week, with long-term demand uncertainty limiting further increases [2] - The LME benchmark copper contract fell by $81.5 or 0.85% to $9,495.5 per ton [3] - The most actively traded June copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 250 yuan or 0.32% at 78,140 yuan per ton [4] Group 2 - This week, LME copper rose approximately 1%, while Shanghai copper prices increased about 0.6% [5] - A metal analyst noted that traders are pleased with the US-China trade decisions, but uncertainty remains about future developments after 90 days [6] - Analysts expect Shanghai copper to hover around 78,000-79,000 yuan per ton in the short term, reflecting mixed market sentiment [7] Group 3 - Copper inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses surged 34% this week to 108,142 tons [8] - The rapid increase in copper inventory may exert short-term pressure on copper prices, according to traders [9] - Other LME metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down 0.8%, zinc down 1.1%, lead down 1.1%, and tin down 0.5% [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the upside space for copper is limited. There is a continuous game between the shortage of recycled copper raw materials and the release of mine production capacity on the supply side, and the resumption of scrap copper trade between China and the US still takes time. On the demand side, post - delivery restocking by downstream enterprises may briefly boost the spot premium, but high copper prices still suppress purchasing willingness. At the macro level, the decline of the US April CPI to 2.3% weakens the support for the US dollar. Overall, copper needs to be wary of inventory pressure and the risk of macro - sentiment switching [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes Analysis** - On May 14, 2025, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose slightly to 78,630 yuan/ton, a 0.95% increase from the previous day, and the LME copper price also rose to $9,624.5/ton. The spot discount of domestic premium copper widened to - 15 yuan/ton, and the discounts of flat - water copper and wet - process copper deepened to - 40 yuan/ton and - 80 yuan/ton respectively. The LME (0 - 3) premium dropped from $23.87/ton on May 8 to $19.17/ton [1]. - The SHFE copper open interest continued to shrink, with the inventory on May 14 dropping to 185,575 tons, a 2.15% decrease from the previous week, while the LME copper inventory soared to 50,069 tons, a 71.72% increase from the previous period. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of the BC copper main contract was 16,871 lots, and the open interest increased to 2,471 lots, indicating increased capital activity [2]. - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: In April 2025, the operating rate of Chinese scrap - produced anode copper enterprises decreased by 5.33 percentage points to 44.32% month - on - month due to the shortage of recycled copper raw materials, while the operating rate of mineral anode copper enterprises increased slightly by 2.50 percentage points to 72.40%. The new project of Chifeng Chehugou Copper - Molybdenum Mine (with a reserve of 9 billion tons) and the progress of the Ambler Mining Area Act in Alaska, USA, indicate the potential for medium - and long - term mine production capacity release, but it is difficult to alleviate the supply gap of recycled copper in the short term. The suspension of Sino - US trade has led to a loosening of scrap copper exports, but inventory transfer still takes time [3]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream demand is marginally weakening. Near the delivery date, the purchasing sentiment in the spot market is suppressed by the high monthly spread. In North China, the spot discount widened to 480 yuan/ton, and downstream enterprises generally wait to purchase after the contract change. There is a structural adjustment in the consumer electronics field, such as Solus, a Samsung supplier, accelerating the divestiture of its OLED business to focus on copper foil production, reflecting the industry's long - term bet on copper demand for electric vehicle batteries, but there is no significant boost in short - term demand in the power and construction sectors [4]. - **Inventory Side**: Global inventories are diverging. The LME copper inventory soared by 20,912 tons to 50,069 tons, reaching a phased high; the SHFE inventory continued to decline to 185,600 tons. The COMEX inventory also slightly increased to 165,100 short tons [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | May 14, 2025 | May 13, 2025 | May 8, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 79,060 | 78,270 | 78,560 | 790 | 1.01% | yuan/ton | | Premium Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | - 15 | 5 | - 5 | - 20 | - 400.00% | yuan/ton | | Flat - Water Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | - 40 | - 25 | - 30 | - 15 | - 60.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - Process Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | - 80 | - 70 | - 75 | - 10 | - 14.29% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - | 19 | 24 | - | - | dollars/ton | | SHFE | 78,630 | 77,890 | 78,070 | 740 | 0.95% | yuan/ton | | LME | - | 9,625 | 9,502 | - | - | dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 50,069 | 29,157 | 20,084 | 20,912 | 71.72% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 185,575 | 189,650 | 190,750 | - 4,075 | - 2.15% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | - | 165,112 | 163,458 | - | - | short tons | [8] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - In May 2025, the expected operating rate of scrap - produced anode copper enterprises is 43.62%, a 0.70 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, mainly affected by the shortage of recycled copper raw materials [9]. - In April 2025, the operating rate of Chinese anode copper enterprises was 53.37%, a 2.80 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The operating rate of scrap - produced enterprises was 44.32%, a 5.33 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month [9]. - The 19.8 - million - ton/year engineering design project of Chifeng Chehugou Copper - Molybdenum Mine was signed, with an estimated reserve of about 9 billion tons and a total investment of about 5 billion yuan, involving the mining and beneficiation of non - ferrous metals such as copper and molybdenum [9]. - Dianzhong Non - ferrous and Chinalco Environmental Protection signed a recycled copper resource supply contract, achieving cross - regional circulation and the establishment of a recycling system, and enhancing resource security capabilities [9]. - In March 2023, Codelco's copper production increased by 14.8% year - on - year to 123,200 tons; the production of Escondida Copper Mine increased by 18.9% to 120,600 tons, and the production of Collahuasi Copper Mine decreased by 29.3% to 35,200 tons [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [10][12][14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of the US dollar after testing lower levels restricts the upward movement of copper prices [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78,940 with a daily increase of 1.09%, and the night - session closing price was 78,650 with a decrease of 0.37%. The LME copper 3M electronic trading price was 9,592 with a decrease of 0.34%. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 21,504 to 112,380, and the position increased by 11,971 to 193,911. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic trading decreased by 1,420 to 8,755, and the position increased by 1,256 to 291,000 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory increased by 20,912 to 50,069, and the LME copper inventory decreased by 4,075 to 185,575. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 41.84%, a decrease of 1.01% [1] - **Price Difference**: The LME copper premium decreased by 4.34 to 14.83, the bonded - area warehouse receipt premium decreased by 1 to 100, and the bonded - area bill of lading premium decreased by 2 to 115. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper increased by 300 to 72,600 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: China's social financing increment in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 280 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. The US adjusted tariffs on China, revoking 91% of the additional tariffs and lowering or revoking tariffs on small parcels [1] - **Micro News**: Chile's copper export value in April was 452 million US dollars, an increase of 8.2% year - on - year. In April 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 438,000 tons, the same as last year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.742 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% compared with 1.812 million tons in the same period last year. Canada's First Quantum Minerals is cautiously optimistic about the prospects of its copper mine in Panama. Codelco and Rio Tinto announced a new cooperation agreement [1][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral state [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View - The Sino-US friendly negotiation injects short - term benefits, the US dollar rebounds, and the follow - up situation needs further attention. The fundamentals continue the pattern of tight supply, and the downstream demand is expected to slow down. However, the hawkish stance of the US suppresses the upside space. It is expected that the copper price will be mainly volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data tonight [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened high, fluctuated lower, and closed up. The Sino - US friendly negotiation raised the risk preference and the US dollar rebounded, suppressing the copper price. As of May 9, the smelter processing fees continued to expand negative values, and the supply shortage of copper mines intensified. The US copper inventory increased significantly, and the domestic exchange's explicit inventory continued to decline but at a slower rate. There are maintenance plans in May and concentrated plans from July to September. In April, the cable enterprise's start - up rate reached 86.3%, and the orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened high, fluctuated lower, and closed up, at 78090 yuan/ton. The net long positions of the top twenty decreased by 4809 to 120750 hands, and the short positions decreased by 2404 to 112949 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 25 yuan/ton, and in South China was 45 yuan/ton. On May 12, 2025, the LME official price was 9546 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 44 dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of May 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.6 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 2.92 tons, an increase of 9073 tons from the previous period. As of May 12, the Shanghai bonded area copper inventory was 8.58 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 18.97 tons, a slight decrease of 1100 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 16.35 short tons, an increase of 3208 short tons from the previous period [9].

冠通期货 铜周度策略展望 冠通期货研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 2025年5月12日 1 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜上周区间窄幅震荡。美联储维持利率不变，联邦基金利率目标区间保持在4.25%至4.50%，鹰派立场下铜价上行空间受阻。中国一揽政 | | | | | 策出台包括降准0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，并降低政策利率0.1个百分点。下调再贷款利率0.25个百分点。下调个人 | | | | | 住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，一定程度刺激市场。中美经贸在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈，提出24%的关税在初始的90天内暂 | | | | | 停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税，基本面情况来看，截止4月18日，现货粗炼费（TC）-43.6美元/干吨， | | | | | 现货精炼费（RC）-4.37美分/磅，冶炼厂加工费继续扩大负值，硫酸利润弥补少量亏损，但冶炼厂成本压力明显，铜矿端供应紧缺加剧。5 | | | | | 月国内有 ...

| 2 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 变量名称 | 2025-05-08 | 2025-05-07 | 2025-04-25 | 较昨日变动 | 近期定势 | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 77330 | 77790 | 77440 | -460.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 116718 | 132768 | 110001 | -16, 050. 00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 179692 | 179103 | 165933 | 589.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 19540 | 21541 | 41588 | -2,001.00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78435 | 78580 | 781 45 | -145.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | 沪铜基差 | 1105 | 790 | 705 | 315.00 | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | 195 | 220 | 205 | | -25.00 ---------- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has dropped to a new low for the same period in 2023, supporting a positive outlook for copper prices as macroeconomic expectations improve [1]. - As of April 30, 2025, the SHFE copper closing price was 77,220 RMB/ton, down 0.9% from the previous week, while the LME copper closing price was 9,366 USD/ton, down 0.1% [1]. - The copper industry is currently experiencing a divergence between macroeconomic pressures and supply-demand tensions, with domestic electrolytic copper inventory at a near five-year low providing price support [1][2]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 28.7% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 2.7% [2]. - As of April 30, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 836,000 tons, up 4.2% week-on-week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 431,000 tons, the highest for the same period in nearly six years, down 4.5% week-on-week [2]. Supply - In April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, up 0.3% month-on-month and up 14.3% year-on-year [3]. - The copper concentrate production in China for December 2024 was 152,000 tons, up 9.5% month-on-month and up 6.9% year-on-year [2]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,371 RMB/ton as of April 30, 2025, down 285 RMB/ton from the previous week [2]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate was 89.45%, down 1.78 percentage points week-on-week [3]. - The production of household air conditioners is expected to grow by 14.3% year-on-year in July 2025, indicating strong demand in the home appliance sector [3][97]. - The operating rate for brass rods, which account for 4.2% of domestic copper demand, was 54.4% in March 2025, up 14 percentage points month-on-month but down 8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Futures - As of April 30, 2025, the active SHFE copper contract had a holding of 169,000 lots, up 1.5% week-on-week [4]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 19,000 lots, down 21.8% week-on-week [4]. - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4].

截至2025年4月30日当周，沪铜期货主力合约收于77220元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持2621 手。 上周（4月28日-4月30日）市场上看，沪铜期货周内开盘报77510元/吨，最高触及77990元/吨，最低下探 至77010元/吨，周度下跌0.28%。 节前，铜价一度表现坚挺，小幅上行，周三晚间国内休市，海外出现大跌，LME铜大跌3.4%，之后两 交易日，LME铜有所反弹，但未能完全收复周三跌幅，至收盘报于9356美元，周度基本持平，微跌 0.04%。交易建议：短期铜价虽大概率仍能维持坚挺，甚至小幅上行，但7.8万上方风险加大，不建议继 续大幅看多铜价交易，上方风险较高，可转为博弈利空对铜价的影响，可考虑适量买入看跌期权。 国信期货：沪铜预计震荡运行 宏观方面，据消息，美国世界大型企业研究会29日发布数据显示，受预期恶化影响，美国4月消费者信 心指数连续第五个月下降，跌至新冠疫情以来的最低水平，反映出对未来的普遍悲观看法。基本面仍对 铜价有支撑，国内铜库存持续去化，且持续低于去年同期水平。另一方面，市场也存有未来5月需求转 弱的担忧。整体而言，沪铜预计震荡，持续关注国内利好政策以及宏观情绪的变化 ...

期货热点追踪 沪铜早盘小幅走低，分析师称供应担忧已被定价？铜价窄幅震荡何时选择方向？ 相关链接 ...

来源：华龙期货 作者：华龙期货 研报正文 一、行情复盘 (一)期货价格 根据上海期货交易所数据统计，上周，沪铜期货主力合约AL2506 价格以震荡行情为主。价格范围在 74920 元/吨附近至最高 76485 元/吨左右。 根据伦敦金属交易所数据统计，上周，LME 铜期货价格以震荡趋势运行，LME铜期货合约价格在 9033-9274 美元/吨附近运行。 二、现货分析 长江有色金属网数据显示，截止至 2025 年 4 月 18 日，上海物贸铜平均价为76,295元/吨，长江有色市 场 1#电解铜平均价为 76,400 元/吨，较上一交易日增加170 元/吨;上海、广东、重庆、天津四地现货价 格分别为 76,150 元/吨、76,200 元/吨、76,260 元/吨、76,230元/吨。截止至 2025 年 4 月 18 日，电解铜 升贴水维持在上升95 元/吨附近，较上一交易日上涨 75 元/吨。 三、供需情况 (一)精炼铜产量保持增长 (二)铜材月度产量环比下降明显 万得资讯数据显示，截止至 2025 年 3 月，铜材月度产量为212.52 万吨，环比下降14.76万吨。截止至 2025 年 3 月，中国汽车 ...