Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two categories of industries are highlighted: "supply clearing" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion [2][15]. - Industries exhibiting "supply clearing" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services [2][15]. - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports [2][17]. Group 2: Export Chain Analysis - Industries with high overseas revenue ratios are expected to maintain independent growth despite domestic demand pressures, including other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery [3][20]. - The report notes that industries with high revenue from the U.S. face uncertainties until U.S.-China trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products, textile manufacturing, and lighting equipment if tariff issues ease [3][23]. Group 3: High Dividend Yield Industries - High dividend yield industries identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods [4][26]. - Notably, the dividend yield for transportation and consumer sectors has significantly increased compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods [4][26]. Group 4: Market Performance and Strategy - The A-share market shows resilience, with a net outflow of ETFs indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet the market remains stable with transaction volumes exceeding 1 trillion [5][29]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to position management due to ongoing uncertainties, with a focus on potential support levels for the index [5][29]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended to navigate uncertainties, with a renewed interest in technology sectors, particularly in AI, and a shift towards high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, and plastics [5][30].

Core Insights - The China Central Enterprise Innovation Driven Index (000861) has shown a strong increase of 1.37% as of May 12, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Ruike Laser (300747) up 11.37% and Guorui Technology (600562) up 9.99% [3] - The Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF (515900) has also risen by 1.34%, with a latest price of 1.44 yuan, and has a trading volume of 562.87 million yuan [3] - The ETF's scale has reached 3.3 billion yuan, ranking it in the top quarter among comparable funds [3] Performance Metrics - As of May 9, 2025, the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF has achieved a net value increase of 24.83% over the past three years, ranking 312 out of 1747 in equity funds, placing it in the top 17.86% [4] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 15.05% since inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being five months and a total gain of 24.91% [4] - The average return for the months with gains is 4.08%, and the annual profit percentage stands at 80.00%, with a historical three-year holding profit probability of 97.34% [4] Risk and Fee Structure - The management fee for the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4] - The tracking error over the past five years is 0.038%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4] Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven Index include Hikvision (002415), State Grid NARI (600406), and China Telecom (601728), collectively accounting for 34.48% of the index [5][6] - The individual weights of the top stocks range from 5.08% for Hikvision to 2.60% for China Railway (601390) [8]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology HKETF (513890) opened up over 2% on May 12, 2025, with a turnover of 5.66% and a transaction value of 23.15 million yuan, while the Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTECH) rose by 1.26% [1] - Key stocks such as Sunny Optical Technology (02382) increased by 4.66%, BYD Electronics (00285) by 4.65%, and NIO-SW (09866) by 4.58%, indicating strong performance in the technology sector [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced the launch of the "Tech Company Fast Track" on May 6, aimed at facilitating the listing of specialized technology and biotech companies, which is expected to encourage more companies to list in Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities expressed optimism about AI technology and domestic consumption, suggesting a focus on high-dividend stocks for defensive positioning due to ongoing overseas risks [2] - The report highlighted that the overall overseas risks remain, and a potential decline in US tech stocks could impact Hong Kong stocks, while a dividend payout wave is anticipated in the second quarter [2] - The political bureau meeting at the end of April emphasized the need to expand consumption and enhance its role in economic growth, reinforcing the focus on domestic consumption as a key theme for the year [2] Group 3 - Morgan Asset Management is integrating its "Global Vision Investment Technology" product line to help investors capitalize on quality tech companies globally, driven by the AI wave [3] - The actively managed funds focus on emerging industry trends, AI opportunities, and sectors like the new energy vehicle supply chain and humanoid robots [3] - The passive investment options include the Morgan Hang Seng Technology ETF (QDII) and other funds targeting innovative pharmaceutical companies and global tech leaders [4]

本周，A股整体强势上攻，上证指数成功收复3300点，并回补4月7日向下跳空缺口，深证成指时隔1个 月后重新站上万点大关，创业板指、沪深300等也纷纷突破重要的指数关口。日均成交较"五一"前明显 提升，4个交易日合计成交5.41万亿元。 融资余额激增逾214亿元，终结此前连续6周融资净卖出状态。电子行业获得逾47亿元融资净买入，计算 机行业获得逾34亿元净买入，机械设备行业获得23.79亿元净买入，医药生物、非银金融、通信、国防 军工等行业也均获得超10亿元净买入。仅交通运输、电力设备、煤炭等少数行业遭融资客微量净卖出。 另据Wind数据统计，机械设备行业获得近207亿元主力资金净流入，国防军工行业获得逾184亿元净流 入，计算机行业、汽车行业也均获得超百亿元净流入，纺织服饰行业则连续9日获得净流入。仅非银金 融、房地产、钢铁三行业本周主力资金呈净流出状态。 市场热点方面，随着年报披露完毕，年度分红逐步展开，高股息股受到市场追捧，特别是银行板块股 票，本周纷纷创新高。 建设银行5月9日分红除权后立即填权，股价创历史新高（复权，下同），成都银行、浦发银行、江苏银 行等多股本周亦创历史新高，重庆银行、青岛银行等则创 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector demonstrates strong defensive capabilities amid market fluctuations, with significant inflows of capital and rising stock prices for major banks, indicating a potential investment opportunity in this sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The banking sector showed resilience, with the A-share leading bank ETF (512800) achieving a new high of 1.581 yuan, marking a three-day upward trend [1]. - A total of 42 listed banks saw 41 stocks rise, with notable gains from banks such as Qingdao Bank (over 3% increase) and several others exceeding 2% [3]. - The banking sector attracted a substantial capital inflow of 4.35 billion yuan, the highest among all primary industries [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Recent monetary policy measures, including a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut and a reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates, are expected to alleviate the financial burden on commercial banks [3]. - The 50 basis points reserve requirement cut is projected to release over one trillion yuan in long-term funds, which can replace high-cost MLF stock, reducing interest expenses for financial institutions [3]. - Analysts believe that these policies will stabilize asset quality expectations for banks and support steady credit growth, particularly if they stimulate recovery in real estate and consumption [3]. Group 3: Dividend Yield and Long-term Value - The bank ETF (512800) has a dividend yield of 6.57%, significantly exceeding the risk-free rate by nearly 5 percentage points, highlighting the attractiveness of high dividends in the current market [4]. - Historical performance data indicates that the banking sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index over the past decade, with seven years ranking in the top five among 30 industries for annual returns [4][5]. - The bank ETF is designed to capture high dividend opportunities while maintaining a diversified portfolio across major state-owned and growth-oriented banks [5].

Market Overview - The A-share market shows a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3352.00, up 0.28%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.93% to 10197.66 [2][3] - The overall market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 644320 billion, with a PE ratio of 11.79 and a PB ratio of 1.22 [3] Financial Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1586 billion 7-day reverse repo operation, indicating liquidity support in the market [17] - In April, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.791 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17% [18] - The logistics price index for April was 105 points, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.09% [19] Industry Dynamics - Midea Group and Hisense Group have entered a strategic partnership to develop AI application platforms, focusing on digital transformation and smart logistics [27] - The demand for cooling systems in data centers is driving growth in orders for magnetic levitation compressors, with a projected growth rate of 50% this year [29] - The potential modification of AI chip export controls by the Trump administration is expected to stimulate innovation in the AI hardware sector [31][32] Company Updates - Muyuan Foods reported a 51.8% year-on-year increase in pig sales in April, with a total of 6.573 million pigs sold [36] - Water Sheep Co., Ltd. announced the progress of its share repurchase plan, having repurchased 8,097,150 shares, accounting for 2.09% of its total share capital [39] - Huaxi Biological's injection of sodium hyaluronate composite solution has received approval as a Class III medical device, marking a significant milestone in its product development [41] Regional Economic Dynamics - Changgao Electric New Energy's subsidiaries won a total of 235 million in bids from the State Grid, which is expected to positively impact the company's performance [42] - The 2024 annual report disclosure for Hunan's state-owned listed companies showed a total revenue of 265.266 billion, with a net profit of 7.443 billion [44]

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue and net profit in 2024 due to a weak macroeconomic environment, but maintained stable profit margins and a high dividend payout ratio [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company recorded revenue of 3.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 540 million yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year [3]. - For Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 250 million yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year [3]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 540 million yuan, a decline of 17.8% year-on-year, with net profit dropping to 60 million yuan, down 54.1% year-on-year [3]. Dividend Policy - The company declared a dividend of 0.62 yuan per share for 2024, maintaining a payout ratio of 95.8%, which is an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cost Management - The company's net profit margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points in 2024, with a gross margin increase of 0.4 percentage points attributed to improved online and group purchase channel margins [4]. - Sales expenses increased by 9.6 percentage points, leading to a significant rise in the absolute value of sales expenses by 20.37 million yuan, primarily due to negative leverage from declining revenue [3][4]. Channel Performance - Online, direct, and franchise channel revenues decreased by 7.4%, increased by 1.8%, and increased by 1.4% year-on-year, respectively, with gross margins of 50.3%, 67.9%, and 55.6% [4]. - The direct channel showed resilience with a net increase of 1 store to 485 stores, achieving an average revenue per store of 1.52 million yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year [4]. - The franchise channel saw a net closure of 23 stores, totaling 987 stores, indicating a strategic move to close underperforming locations [4].

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20250508 5 月港股金股：关税阴霾渐退 2025 年 05 月 08 日 [观点Table_Tag] 3、港股反弹还需增量资金和政策刺激。当前增量资金主要以南向为主，香 港本地资金和海外资金还有增配空间。此外，尽管 5 月 2 日，美元兑港币 汇率触及 7.75 强方兑换保证，仍需继续观察外资流入情况。 ◼ 我们相对看好 AI 科技、内需，同时建议配置部分高股息用作防御： 1、看好 AI 科技：一是，美股科技业绩部分亮眼，一定程度上对全球科技 叙事有所提振；二是，业绩进入真空期，业绩干扰减少，利好主题行情， AI 科技东升仍是重点；三是，港交所和香港证监会推出"科企专线"，进 一步利好科创风偏。 2、考虑配置部分高股息：一是，整体海外风险还在，如果美股科技大跌可 能传导至港股科技；二是，二季度部分港股可能提前派息潮。为避免下半 年可能的在岸人民币压力，部分企业可能提前支付股息。三是，近期港币 流动性有宽松信号，若资金成本继续下降，进一步利好高股息。 3、内需消费仍是全年主线。4 月底政治局会议，明确表示要扩大消费，大 力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济拉 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on high dividend sectors including regional banks, railways, telecommunications, publishing, construction, and environmental protection industries [1][5][10] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Strategy**: - Trading investors should reduce dividend holdings, while long-term investors can switch within high dividend assets, focusing on sectors with lower congestion and strong fundamentals [1][3] - Quantitative models show a neutral stance on dividend assets due to mixed influences from market trends and interbank transaction volumes [6] - **Insurance Capital**: - Insurance funds are expected to purchase approximately 800-900 billion yuan in dividend stocks in 2024, aiming to allocate 5% of total assets to dividend investments [1][9] - High dividend stocks are seen as opportunities for insurance capital to compensate for cash shortfalls, with a preference for stable dividends and reasonable valuations [7][8] - **Sector Performance**: - The highway sector showed good performance in Q1 2025, with recommendations for specific stocks like Anhui Expressway and Guangdong Expressway [1][10][11] - The logistics park sector is benefiting from marginal recovery in real estate, while the port sector is advised to be cautious due to tariff impacts [1][10] - In the construction and building materials sector, cement and fiberglass profitability is improving, with recommendations for Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Liansu, and Shifeng Cement [1][12] - **Banking Sector**: - The banking sector continues to exhibit strong dividend logic, with regional banks showing resilience while large banks face some performance differentiation due to bond market fluctuations [20][22] - The overall stability of bank earnings is noted, with improvements in net interest margins and a stable dividend payout [21][22] - **Telecommunications**: - Telecom operators are diversifying into AI and cloud computing to offset declines in traditional business, with expected cost growth slowing down in 2025 [23][24][25] - Dividend yields for major telecom companies are projected to remain between 5% and 6%, with significant dividend growth anticipated [25] - **Education and Publishing**: - The education publishing sector is showing stable performance, with some companies achieving growth in net profits despite challenges [26][27] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to remain stable, with leading companies achieving higher ratios [27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **High Dividend Stocks Recommendations**: - Specific high dividend stocks recommended include Anhui Expressway (A-share 3.5%, H-share 5.5%), Guangdong Expressway (A-share 3.7%), and Zhejiang Huhangyu (H-share 6.4%) [11] - In the logistics sector, Shenzhen International is highlighted for its strong profit growth and high dividend yield [11] - **Future Projections**: - The construction sector is expected to see improved profitability, with a focus on structural and regional plans [12] - The railway sector is projected to maintain high investment levels, with significant demand for rail transit equipment [17][18] - **Market Dynamics**: - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with potential volatility due to tariff impacts and corporate earnings uncertainties [3][5] - The insurance sector's approach to dividend stocks is characterized by selective buying during market downturns, focusing on quality over quantity [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, highlighting their high dividend characteristics [6][10]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend assets as investment opportunities in the current market environment [6][8]. - It notes that the recent OPEC production cuts have led to a stabilization of international oil prices, with a projected average price of $70 per barrel in 2025 [6][8]. - The chemical industry is experiencing mixed performance, with some sectors like tires and lubricants showing better-than-expected results, while others remain weak due to overcapacity and weak demand [7][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Tracking - International oil prices have fluctuated, with WTI and Brent prices dropping by 7.51% and 8.34% respectively as of May 2 [6][23]. - The domestic gasoline and diesel prices have shown slight declines, reflecting cautious market sentiment amid uncertain tariff policies [24][25]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were observed in sulfuric acid (21.21%) and natural gas (12.74%), while synthetic ammonia saw a notable decline of 13.19% [20][21]. - The report highlights the mixed performance of chemical products, with some experiencing price rebounds while others continue to decline [22][7]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from import substitution, such as lubricating oil additives and specialty coatings, due to rising domestic prices and difficulties in obtaining imports [8][22]. - It also points out the potential in the tire industry, which has shown resilience against tariff impacts, recommending companies like Senqcia and Sailun Tire [8][22]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Xinyangfeng and Ruifeng New Materials, with projected EPS growth [10][22]. - Companies with high dividend yields, such as the "three barrels of oil" (Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC), are highlighted as attractive investment options amid rising risk aversion [8][22].