观点网 继续等下去，深圳南山北头村将要在沉寂中度过旧改的第二十年。 得天独厚的地理位置似乎只是旧改启动的添头，操盘企业也没有陷入流动性危机的传闻，北头村旧改却 在项目规划首次公告之后，进入了漫长的定格时间。 对于历史超过500年的北头村而言，时间的流逝并不可怕，迟迟未能推进的旧改规划更为磨人。 坐落在深圳南山北麓滩头因此得名"北头"，北头村始建于元代，村民们过去多以养蚝、捕鱼为生，兼种 水稻与荔枝。 改革春风吹到广东，深圳从小渔村成长为国际化大都市，北头村的机遇也到来了。 18年延宕 随着城市发展及大规模填海，北头村村民们"洗脚上岸"，1979年集资建设6000平方米厂房，引进"三来 一补"企业，开启"从农转商"的生活。 正因为大规模填海造陆，北头村逐渐从沿海小渔村变成夹在深圳前海、后海两大中心区的空间发展轴带 上的旧村区域。 时代车轮滚滚前行，一片片高楼在北头村前后拔地而起，沿着前海路的七个城中村陆续进入旧改规划， 北头村也是其中之一。 据观点新媒体了解，北头村最早于2008年被列入《深圳市城市更新改造项目2008年度实施计划》，2011 年8月得到深圳市规划和国土资源委员会下发的旧改地块专项规划批复，自此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Stable Development · Beneficial Housing - 2026 Guangxi Housing Promotion Network Live Broadcast" event highlighted the recovery of the Guangxi real estate market and the potential for high-quality development, focusing on policies to stabilize the market and promote housing consumption [1][2][16]. Group 1: Market Recovery and Development Focus - Guangxi's real estate market has shown signs of recovery, with the added value of the real estate industry in 2025 experiencing a positive growth rate for the first time in four years, surpassing the national average in key indicators such as sales area and development investment [2][16]. - The focus for 2026 will be on "de-stocking, optimizing supply, stabilizing expectations, and increasing momentum," with specific measures to promote high-quality development in the real estate sector [2][16]. Group 2: Policy Implementation and Support - The event discussed various policy measures aimed at de-stocking, optimizing supply, and preventing risks, with detailed explanations provided by relevant department officials [6][16]. - Financial support policies include low interest rates, low down payments, and the application of tools like guaranteed housing re-loans to stimulate the market [8][16]. Group 3: Housing Quality and Community Development - The concept of "good housing" was emphasized, focusing on safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence, with recommendations to leverage local ecological and cultural resources to create high-quality living products [7][16]. - Various cities in Guangxi have introduced housing subsidies and optimized public housing policies to attract residents and enhance living conditions [15][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The event showcased Guangxi's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, improving housing quality, and ensuring residents' well-being, with expectations for a more stable, healthy, and high-quality development trajectory in 2026 [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The latest data shows a significant decline in the area of second-hand housing contracts, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% in the most recent week [1]. - New housing contracts have also seen a year-on-year decline of 26% in the latest week, while second-hand housing contracts have decreased by 10% [3]. - The overall trend indicates that the new housing market is experiencing a more substantial contraction compared to the second-hand market, with new housing contracts down 57% and second-hand contracts down 19% since January [3]. Summary by Sections New Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in new housing contracts has expanded, with a decrease of 24% across sample cities [4]. - The performance of new housing contracts in first-tier cities shows a decline of 21%, while second-tier cities have seen a 27% drop [4]. - The overall new housing contract area is at a low level compared to the same period over the past five years [9][12]. Second-hand Housing Contracts - The second-hand housing market has shown a year-on-year increase of 7% in contract areas, indicating a recovery trend [4]. - First-tier cities have reported a 9% increase in second-hand housing contracts, while second-tier cities have seen an 8% increase [4]. - The second-hand housing market is currently performing better than the new housing market, with a higher year-on-year performance [14]. Market Indicators - The average number of viewings for second-hand properties in 12 sample cities has increased by 60.9% compared to December, indicating a positive shift in market activity [5][40]. - The liquidity outlook for January 2026 suggests a tightening trend, which may impact market dynamics [5][45]. - The proportion of listings with price increases has risen slightly, indicating a potential stabilization in pricing trends [5][47]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative area of land transactions in 2025 has shown a year-on-year decline of 13%, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous months [20]. - The average transaction price for land has increased by 1% year-on-year, reflecting a slight recovery in land values [20]. - The land acquisition data indicates varying performance across different city tiers, with first-tier cities experiencing a more significant decline [20].

Core Insights - The construction materials industry is currently at a low valuation level, with a focus on urban renewal and related opportunities. The allocation ratio for construction materials in Q4 2025 is 0.72%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points from Q3 2025, indicating significant potential for valuation recovery [6][15]. Group 1: Urban Renewal and Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice on January 20, 2026, to support urban renewal actions, providing specific operational guidelines for the "14th Five-Year Plan" urban renewal strategy. This includes a focus on "two renewals and two new projects," emphasizing the construction of underground pipelines and comprehensive utility tunnels [24]. - Companies involved in urban renewal and the renovation of old neighborhoods, such as Dongfang Yuhong, Keshun Co., Sankeshu, Weixing New Materials, and China Liansu, are recommended for attention [24]. Group 2: Construction Materials Sector Overview - The construction materials sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with expectations for continued improvement in 2026. The supply-side adjustments and structural changes in demand are expected to support this recovery [37]. - The cement market saw a 0.8% decrease in prices week-on-week, with the national average price at 345 RMB/ton as of January 30, 2026. The industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with companies like Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and Shafeng Cement recommended for investment [6][38]. Group 3: Key Company Developments - Keshun Co. established a semiconductor company to explore a second growth curve, focusing on integrated circuit chips and related technologies [20]. - Weixing New Materials plans to acquire an 88.26% stake in Beijing Songtiancheng Technology Co., enhancing its capabilities in municipal pipeline systems and expanding its market reach [23]. - Leading companies in the construction materials sector, such as Sankeshu and Huaxin Cement, are expected to report significant profit growth in 2025, driven by strong operational resilience and strategic adjustments [25][27].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese urban development is undergoing a fundamental shift from scale expansion to enhancement of connotation, with urban renewal becoming a crucial strategy for high-quality development and modernization in China [1] Group 1: Urban Development Trends - The urbanization rate has entered a stable phase, making the previous reliance on land finance and new city construction unsustainable [1] - Urban renewal is not merely about physical transformation but involves responding to human needs and stimulating new economic activities and social interactions through spatial restructuring [1] Group 2: Challenges and Key Directions - Urban renewal faces deep-seated challenges, primarily institutional and mechanism barriers, as existing policies and standards are not suited for the complex demands of stock updates [2] - Five key directions for urban renewal include: 1. Reforming implementation mechanisms and establishing strong coordination among local governments [2] 2. Innovating policy tools focusing on land, planning, property rights, and fiscal policies [2] 3. Restructuring financing models to provide long-term, low-interest funding [2] 4. Exploring new opportunities for "self-renewal" [2] 5. Strengthening departmental collaboration and regulatory support [2] Group 3: Investment and Market Insights - There is a need to release and expand investment demand by focusing on new models for urban construction and real estate development, as well as boosting private and foreign investment [5] - The real estate sector is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with commercial real estate and new real estate financial models based on public REITs seen as key to industry transformation [5] - Systematic tracking and authoritative interpretation of market expectations and core indicators are essential for macro policy formulation and micro decision-making [5]

房地产 2026 年 02 月 01 日 相关研究 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 首批商业不动产 REITs 上报，三条红线政策逐步退场 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/1/24-2026/1/30） 本期投资提示： 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房成交环比回升、二手房环比下降，新房成交推盘比回落。上周 (1.24-1.30)34 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's urban development is transitioning from large-scale expansion to a focus on improving existing assets, which will lead to significant changes in land and space governance [1]. Group 1: Urban Development Transition - The shift in urban development mode signifies a need to transform existing urban assets into equity, avoiding the burden of debt from construction [1]. - By 2025, the total value of urban real estate in China is estimated to be between 450 trillion to 500 trillion yuan [1]. Group 2: Steps for Asset Improvement - The first step involves conducting an asset survey to identify and categorize every piece of land and building, analyzing inefficiencies and potential for higher value utilization [2]. - The second step focuses on generating cash flow from these assets, which is essential for standardizing their value and enabling market transactions [2]. - The third step is to create a new equity market for existing assets, which is crucial for local governments to escape debt traps and facilitate the transition to a focus on existing asset quality [3]. Group 3: Role of Planning and Management - The transformation requires planning professionals to not only design but also understand financial implications, marking a significant shift in the planning industry [4]. - Future planning institutions may act like investment banks, identifying undervalued assets and facilitating their entry into the equity market, while resource management departments will oversee transactions and ensure market transparency [3].

Group 1 - The article highlights the active role of Shanghai's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) in addressing local issues and enhancing community engagement through proposals and collaborative efforts [1][2][3] - In the past year, the CPPCC received 1,269 proposals and over 22,000 pieces of public opinion information, with 3,374 participants in consultation meetings, showcasing a strong commitment to grassroots democracy [1][2] - The establishment of 251 CPPCC member workstations and 408 member studios facilitates direct communication between members and the public, creating a feedback loop for addressing community concerns [2][3] Group 2 - The CPPCC has focused on significant topics such as optimizing the modern industrial system and enhancing Shanghai's international financial competitiveness, contributing valuable suggestions for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][5] - Over 180 discussion sessions were organized, with more than 1,000 members participating and approximately 1,200 suggestions submitted, indicating a proactive approach to policy formulation [4][5] - The CPPCC has engaged in discussions on urban renewal and public hospital reform, emphasizing the importance of addressing key issues like aging, employment, and education to improve citizens' quality of life [6][7]

来源：海口发布 2 月 1 日起，海口这 2 条公交线路将有变化 为进一步强化海口东站、海口汽车总站、海口汽车西站三大交通枢纽与新海港的公交无缝衔接，2 月 1 日起，海口优化调整 81 路、 86 路 2 条公交线路。 市民 可关注"海口交投集团"微信公众号或拨打海口公交客服热线"66663066"，了解线路运行动态，查询实时公交和公交拥挤度，提前安排出行。 一、优化调整 81 路（长滨路公交场站至金沙湾） 为满足南港旅客短程接驳需求，优化完善该线路走向，重点强化线路与南港的公交衔接效能，畅通南港进出岛旅客公交换乘通道，切实提升南港片区旅客 集散效率，更好适配片区旅客出行需求与日常交通运营节奏。 增加站点：往返程，南港。 拟将86路公交线路延伸至新海港，线路起讫点由原"海口高铁东站至长天路公交场站"调整为"海口高铁东站至新海港"。结合该线路延伸后运营里程增加、 车辆运营及人力等综合成本上升的实际情况，拟将该线路票价由原"上车1元，分段收费，全程2元"调整为"上车1元，分段收费，全程4元"，并在往返程双 拥路口、假日海滩、大华锦绣海岸三期东门等公交站设置分段计价点位。同时对新海港首末班时间进行优化调整，首班时 ...

Core Insights - The forum held on January 29, 2026, focused on the future of China's real estate industry amidst macroeconomic changes and urban development strategies [1] - The real estate sector is transitioning from a phase of large-scale expansion to one of quality improvement and structural optimization, facing both challenges and opportunities [2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and is seen as a critical transition period for the real estate industry towards high-quality development [2] - The industry has moved past large-scale expansion and is now in a phase of optimizing existing stock and improving quality, with a focus on stabilizing market confidence and addressing supply-demand imbalances [2] Group 2: Consumer Demand and Market Dynamics - Stable growth in consumer demand is essential for revitalizing the real estate market, which relies on improved employment, income, and asset stability [3] - Demand in 2026 is expected to improve, with a projected growth rate of 4%-5%, supported by ongoing consumer policies and recovery in employment and income [3] Group 3: Urban Renewal and Quality Housing - Urban renewal and the construction of quality housing are identified as key drivers for the industry's transformation, emphasizing the need for new supply rather than just new developments [4] - Policies related to urban renewal have been implemented frequently, with significant examples demonstrating successful revitalization and demand stimulation [4] Group 4: Market Predictions and Trends - The overall real estate market in 2026 is anticipated to exhibit an "L-shaped bottoming" pattern, with new residential prices expected to decline by 1% to 0%, indicating a gradual stabilization rather than a full recovery [5] - Core cities are expected to see moderate price increases of 2%-3%, while weaker cities may continue to struggle with high inventory and population outflows [7] Group 5: Policy Recommendations - Recommendations for 2026 include enhancing demand-side support through measures such as lifting purchase restrictions, increasing mortgage tax deductions, and optimizing housing fund policies to lower purchasing costs [7]