Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for December is significant as it is the first complete month unaffected by the government shutdown, with expectations for stable employment figures [1][9]. Employment Data - The expected change in non-farm employment for December is around 60,000, with a previous value of 64,000, indicating a stable outlook [1][9]. - The unemployment rate for December is anticipated to be 4.5%, slightly down from the previous 4.6%, reflecting a stable labor market [1][9]. Market Expectations - The stability in employment expectations is attributed to the absence of government shutdowns in December, unlike the previous months [1][9]. - The ADP employment data, which serves as a precursor to the non-farm payroll report, showed a positive shift from a previous value of -29,000 to a current value of 41,000, suggesting a potential positive trend in the upcoming non-farm report [3][9]. Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index is showing signs of a potential breakout from its current mid-term consolidation range, having started a rebound since December 24 [6][12]. - The established trading range for the dollar index is between 96.34 and 100.23, with the latest upward movement facing resistance near the 100-point mark [7][12].

我们判断，"十五五"（2026年—2030年）的人民币不太可能 简单演化为"单边升值通道"或"单边贬值通道"，更接近的形 态是：汇率弹性更高（双向波动常态化）；管理框架仍强调稳 预期。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 而随后一个交易日，硬资产中部分品种出现明显反弹与修复，提示"硬资产不会轻易崩盘"的概率 在抬升：市场在押注"再通胀尾部风险上升+供应约束增强"。在这种结构里，硬资产（尤其兼具工 业/货币属性的品种）可能被赋予更高风险溢价，但走势也会更"锯齿化"。 在这条链条里，人民币并非"配角"，它会影响"大宗商品的中国需求叙事"。而央行对汇率的表态 也较清晰：坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用、保持弹性、强化预期引导、防范超调，保持人民 币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。这意味着，无论市场在"怕"还是"盼"，人民币都不太可能 被允许成为"单边情绪放大器"。 如果把镜头拉长到"十四五"（2021年—2025年）五年，人民币对美元的形态可概括为：先升后 贬再修复的"N字型"总体画面。按年末美元/人民币粗略估算：2020年末约6.53，2025年末在7 附近，五年累计美元兑人民币上行约7%，对应人民币对美元累计温和走 ...

Core Insights - The official nonfarm payrolls data for December is expected to be released this morning, which will provide critical insights into the labor market and economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The nonfarm payrolls report is a key economic indicator that reflects the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding farm workers and a few other job categories [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring this data as it can influence monetary policy decisions and market sentiment [1] - The December report is particularly significant as it concludes the year and may indicate trends for the upcoming year [1]

一、基本面 昨日1月8日（星期四），黄金早盘在4466附近受阻开始下跌，一直震荡下跌到美盘前，最低跌至4408/4407区域，美盘企稳开始上涨，收盘前最高上涨至 4479/4480区域，日线收出一根带有长下影线的阳线。 1、美国就业数据成焦点 2、四小时级别：结构层面，整体分析思路维持不变，核心仍围绕4500/4501的突破情况展开：若价格持续受限于该区间下方，需重点观察C浪调整走势；若 成功向上突破，则大概率处于第5浪上涨行情。 点位方面，下方支撑先关注4446/4445、4437/4436区域。上述两个位置分别对应黄金自4408/4407上行至4484过程中的黄金分割比例0.5及0.618对应的支撑 位，同时4446/4445区域也是凌晨金价首次冲高至4465遇阻回落后的低点位置，4437/4436区域则是欧盘及美盘初期反复承压震荡的位置，该区域突破后行情 启动加速上涨，若价格回落，需关注该区域的顶底转换效应。此外，需重点留意昨日低点4408/4407区域支撑，若金价在未突破4500/4501阻力前率先下破该 支撑位，则基本可确认行情进入C浪调整阶段。 上方阻力重点关注4500/4501，该位置为本周当前 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,579 billion, an increase of $11.5 billion from the end of November 2025, influenced by various economic factors [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $11.5 billion from November to December 2025 [1] - The increase in reserves is attributed to the decline in the US dollar index and fluctuations in global financial asset prices [1] - The stable economic conditions in China are expected to support the stability of foreign exchange reserves [1]

每经AI快讯，1月8日，美元指数上涨0.2%至盘中高点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations of the RMB against the USD in 2025, highlighting the significant psychological impact of the RMB breaking the 7 mark and the overall trends in currency valuation and economic indicators during the year [2][3]. Currency Trends - By the end of 2025, the USD/RMB exchange rate was around 7, with the onshore closing at 6.9901 and the midpoint at 7.0348 [2]. - The RMB appreciated over 4% against the USD throughout the year, while the USD index fell by approximately 9% to 10% [3]. - The RMB's effective exchange rate against a basket of currencies did not necessarily strengthen, indicating a complex relationship with other currencies [3]. Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 were reported at 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8%, respectively, showing a trend of "high at the beginning and low at the end" [3]. - The RMB began to strengthen in the second half of the year, correlating with a recovery in risk assets, particularly from November onwards [3]. Asset Performance - Precious metals and certain industrial metals performed well in 2025, with silver and gold showing particularly strong results [3]. - Oil prices remained relatively weak, indicating ongoing market adjustments regarding supply and demand [3]. RMB's Role in Commodities - The RMB's fluctuations are expected to influence the narrative around China's demand for commodities, with the central bank emphasizing the importance of market-driven exchange rates and maintaining stability [5]. - The RMB's trajectory over the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021-2025) is characterized by an "N-shaped" pattern, with a cumulative depreciation of about 7% against the USD [5][6]. Future Outlook - For the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030), the RMB is expected to exhibit higher elasticity and dual-directional fluctuations rather than a simple appreciation or depreciation trend [7]. - The cross-border use of the RMB is increasing, with its share in non-bank cross-border receipts reaching 53% in the first half of 2025, which may enhance its resilience against external shocks [7]. 2026 Predictions - The main theme for the RMB in 2026 is expected to be finding a balanced range amid USD fluctuations and domestic recovery, rather than a clear trend of appreciation or depreciation [8][10]. - Three scenarios for the RMB's performance in 2026 are outlined: optimistic (6.80-6.90), neutral (6.90-7.10), and pessimistic (7.10-7.30), depending on external factors such as USD strength and risk premiums [9].

美元指数升至四周高位附近，徘徊于98.74。美元指数的走强给以美元计价的白银带来了压力。 今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于17.54一线上方，截至发稿，纸白银暂报17.60元/克，上 涨1.52%，最高触及17.74元/克，最低下探17.34元/克，目前来看，纸白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看，纸白银价格在早盘触及到高点之后持续震荡，一小时布林带收缩，表明上涨力度减弱，开口 向下倾斜，警惕回调风险，DMI显示处于交界处，目前空头占据上风，纸白银走势下方关注17.00-17.30 支撑，上方关注17.50-18.00阻力。 美元的强势，一方面源于市场在关键数据发布前的仓位调整，另一方面，虽然美国劳动力市场数据显示 出降温迹象(如职位空缺降幅超预期、ADP就业数据不及预期)，但ISM服务业活动的意外回升，又给市 场带来了不确定性，使得美元并未因降息预期而单边下跌。 此外，三菱日联银行的分析师在报告中指出，由于美联储的降息幅度可能超过目前的市场定价，美元今 年将面临进一步下跌。美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示，自4月以来，每月新增就业人数可能被高估了6万人。 分析师称， ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, influenced by President Trump's announcement to prohibit large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, raising concerns about the housing market and economic slowdown [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw most indices decline, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 1% and the S&P 1500 residential construction index falling by up to 2.2% [1]. - Blackstone's stock plummeted by as much as 9.3%, while major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup also experienced declines [2]. - The overall sentiment in the market was negative, with significant drops in energy stocks, including ExxonMobil and Chevron [3]. Group 2: Housing Market Impact - President Trump's proposed measures aim to make housing more affordable for Americans by restricting institutional investors from buying single-family homes, which he claims has made homeownership increasingly unattainable for many, especially young people [2]. - Analysts express skepticism about the actual impact of the ban on housing prices, noting that institutional investors hold a relatively small share of the overall market [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. private sector added 41,000 jobs in December, which was below the market's expectations of approximately 50,000 [5]. - Mortgage rates decreased from 6.32% to 6.25%, the lowest since September 2024, but this decline did not stimulate mortgage demand, as applications fell by 9.7% during the holiday period [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the strengthening of the US dollar index is driven by the divergence in Federal Reserve policies, mixed economic data, and global central bank policy differences [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy divergence is leading to volatility in the dollar, with significant disagreements among officials and institutions regarding interest rate cuts and future policy direction [1] - Economic data in the US is mixed, with a rebound in January CPI to 3.0% supporting the dollar, while retail sales fell by 0.9%, creating uncertainty in market expectations [1] Group 2 - Global central bank policy divergence is creating a competitive dynamic with de-dollarization, as the Bank of Japan raises rates and the European Central Bank is cautious about rate cuts, reducing the dollar's interest rate advantage [1] - The technical analysis indicates that the dollar index has broken through short-term resistance and is above several short-term moving averages, with support levels at 98.455 and 98.230, and resistance levels at 98.660 and 99.381 [2] - Institutions predict a potential decline of 3% in the dollar index by 2026, influenced by economic resilience and policy uncertainties that may trigger a rebound [2]