Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - Copper prices have been mainly fluctuating recently. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized. In the short term, it's hard to see LME copper prices continuously higher than COMEX copper prices. However, there are still undercurrents in the spot market and inventory. The sharp decline led by COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets, and investors should be wary of the negative impact of weak copper demand [3] Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,460 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - When finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it's recommended to short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - When raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it's recommended to long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US and other countries have reached an agreement on tariff policies - The US dollar index has declined due to employment data - There is obvious support at the lower level [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand has decreased due to tariff policies - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy has led to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5][6] Copper Market Data Futures Market - Shanghai Copper main contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan, 0.23% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract: 78,440 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - LME 3M copper: 9,670.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars, - 0.04% daily change - Shanghai - London ratio: 8.15, unchanged, 0% daily change [6] Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 78,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, 0.19% daily change - Shanghai Wumaomao: 78,465 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan, 0.17% daily change - Guangdong Southern Reserve: 78,330 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan, 0.18% daily change - Yangtze Non - ferrous: 78,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan, 0.13% daily change [7] Refined - Scrap Spread - Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 660.43 yuan/ton, down 173.61 yuan, - 20.82% daily change - Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 1,483.2 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan, - 0.19% daily change - Price advantage (tax - included): - 822.77 yuan/ton, down 170.81 yuan, 26.2% daily change [9] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts: total 20,145 tons, down 201 tons, - 0.99% daily change - LME copper inventory: total 156,000 tons, down 125 tons, - 0.08% daily change - COMEX copper inventory: total 263,296 tons, up 5,381 tons, 2.09% weekly change [13][15][18] Import and Processing - Copper import profit and loss: - 141.8 yuan/ton, up 120.22 yuan, - 45.88% daily change - Copper concentrate TC: - 41 US dollars/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change [19]

Group 1 - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $329.22 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion from the end of June, representing a decline of 0.76% [1] - The decline in foreign exchange reserves was influenced by macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and expectations from major economies, leading to an increase in the US dollar index [1][2] - The US dollar index rose by 3.4% in July, reaching a peak of 100.1042 on July 31, the highest since May 23, contributing to the depreciation of non-US currencies [1] Group 2 - The fluctuation in foreign exchange reserves was also affected by the performance of global financial assets, with the US stock indices reaching new highs, providing some support to the reserves [2] - China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with long-term supportive conditions for maintaining stable foreign exchange reserves [2] - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves increased to 7.396 million ounces, up by 60,000 ounces from the end of June, marking nine consecutive months of gold accumulation by the People's Bank of China [2] Group 3 - The international gold price continued to fluctuate in July, while China's central bank maintained a steady pace of gold accumulation [3] - In the medium term, uncertainties in global trade and geopolitical factors are expected to drive central banks and investors to increase gold investments [3] - The long-term strategy of diversifying international reserves and dynamically adjusting gold reserves will remain unchanged, with a continued focus on increasing gold holdings [3]

Core Insights - As of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, a decrease of $252 billion from the end of June, with gold reserves at 73.96 million ounces [1] - The increase in the US dollar index in July, influenced by macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations, led to fluctuations in global financial asset prices, impacting the valuation of China's foreign exchange reserves [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the ninth consecutive month, maintaining a steady pace of gold accumulation [1] Economic Context - The National Foreign Exchange Administration believes that China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with advantages and resilience that support the stability of foreign exchange reserves [2] - The ongoing uncertainty in global trade and geopolitical factors is expected to drive central banks and investors to continue increasing their gold investments, providing ongoing support for gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, reflecting a decrease of $25.2 billion or 0.76% from the end of June [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The decline in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to factors such as macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and expectations from major economies, leading to fluctuations in global financial asset prices [1] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange indicated that despite the decrease, the long-term supportive conditions and fundamental trends for maintaining foreign exchange reserves remain unchanged due to China's strong economic foundation, advantages, resilience, and potential [1]

Group 1 - The latest statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange show that as of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $329.22 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion from the end of June, representing a decline of 0.76% [1] - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.2 trillion for 20 consecutive months, indicating stability in the reserves despite fluctuations in global financial asset prices [1] - The appreciation of the US dollar and depreciation of non-US currencies have contributed to the decrease in foreign exchange reserves when calculated in dollar terms [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves consistently for nine months, with the official gold reserves reaching 7.396 million ounces by the end of July, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month [1] - The monthly increase in gold reserves has been maintained at around 60,000 to 70,000 ounces since April, reflecting a strategic balance between optimizing reserve structure and controlling acquisition costs [2] - It is anticipated that countries will continue to increase their gold reserves in the medium term, with a long-term strategy of diversifying international reserves and dynamically adjusting gold holdings [2]

Group 1 - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $329.22 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion from the end of June, representing a decline of 0.76% [1] - The decline in foreign exchange reserves was influenced by macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and expectations from major economies, leading to an increase in the US dollar index and a mixed performance in global financial asset prices [1][2] - The US dollar index rose by 3.4% in July, reaching a peak of 100.1042 on July 31, marking the highest level since May 23 [1] Group 2 - The depreciation of non-US currencies against the dollar resulted in a negative valuation effect on foreign exchange reserves, as the reserves are denominated in dollars [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7.396 million ounces as of the end of July, adding 60,000 ounces since the end of June, continuing a trend of increasing gold holdings for nine consecutive months [2] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to its advantages in hedging against risks, inflation, and maintaining value, with central banks expected to continue increasing gold investments amid global uncertainties [3]

Core Points - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, a decrease of $252 billion from the end of June, marking a decline of 0.76% [2][5] - The foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.2 trillion for 20 consecutive months, indicating stability in the overall scale [6] - The decline in reserves was influenced by the rise in the US dollar index and fluctuations in global financial asset prices due to macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations from major economies [5][6] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The decrease in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the appreciation of the US dollar, which has led to a collective depreciation of non-dollar currencies [5] - The rise in the US dollar index was driven by trade agreements between the US and several developed economies, as well as a decrease in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [5] - Despite the decline, the overall scale of foreign exchange reserves remains stable due to the increase in global financial asset prices, which has offset the impact of the dollar's appreciation [5][6] Gold Reserves - As of the end of July 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 7,396 million ounces, an increase of 6 million ounces from the previous month, marking nine consecutive months of gold accumulation by the central bank [7] - The central bank's strategy of increasing gold reserves reflects a balance between optimizing reserve structure and controlling acquisition costs [7] - Global central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves in the coming year, driven by economic and geopolitical uncertainties [7]

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, a decrease of $252 billion from June, marking a decline of 0.76% [1] - The decline in reserves is attributed to the rise in the US dollar index and fluctuations in global financial asset prices, despite the reserves remaining above $3.2 trillion for 20 consecutive months [1][3] - Analysts indicate that the current level of foreign reserves is adequate to support the stability of the RMB exchange rate and to mitigate potential external shocks [1][3] Group 2: Gold Reserves - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, reaching 7,396 million ounces (approximately 2,300.41 tons) as of the end of July, with a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces [2][6] - The gold reserves now amount to $24,398.5 billion, representing 7.41% of the foreign exchange reserves, which is still below the global average of around 15% [2][6] - The increase in gold reserves is seen as a strategic move to diversify international reserves and enhance the credibility of the RMB in the context of a shifting international monetary system [2][6][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite facing risks and challenges, macroeconomic policies in China are prepared to adapt, with a focus on proactive fiscal and moderate monetary policies to support economic stability [5] - The central government emphasizes the need for sustained policy efforts to maintain overall balance in international payments and stabilize foreign exchange reserves [5] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions are expected to drive continued demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, influencing central banks' strategies globally [7][8]

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased by $25.2 billion to $329.22 billion, marking a decline of 0.76% and ending a six-month growth streak [1][3][4] - The decline is attributed to the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of non-US currencies, which resulted in a negative valuation effect on reserves [3][4] - The US dollar index rose by 3.2% in July, while major non-US currencies like the yen, euro, and pound depreciated by 4.5%, 3.2%, and 3.8% respectively [3][4] Group 2: Gold Reserves - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves increased by 60,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces, marking the ninth consecutive month of net increases [1][6] - The gold reserves' value rose by approximately $1.1 billion to $244 billion, representing 7.41% of the total foreign exchange reserves, the highest in three months [6][8] - Despite the increase, the central bank's gold purchases have remained low, averaging 60,000 to 70,000 ounces per month, which is seen as a rational choice given the current high gold prices [6][8]

此外，最新数据还显示，中国央行连续9个月增持黄金，截至7月末，黄金储备报7396万盎司，环比增加 6万盎司。今日，现货黄金短线突然上涨，一度站上3390美元/盎司。业内专家对智通财经记者指出，预 计下半年央行或从优化国际储备结构角度出发，持续增持黄金储备，适度减持美债。 国家外汇管理局最新数据显示，截至7月末，我国外汇储备规模为32922亿美元，较6月末下降252亿美 元，降幅为0.76%。对于外储规模下降，业内分析师对智通财经记者表示，主要原因是美元指数大幅回 升，导致外储中非美元资产价格下跌。 中国央行连续9个月增持黄金 未来增持仍是大方向 8月7日午后，现货黄金站上3390美元/盎司后小幅回落，截至发稿，COMEX黄金报3395.5美元/盎司。同 日，央行数据显示，7月末黄金储备为7396万盎司，环比增加6万盎司。有市场机构表示，官方黄金储备 连续第九个月增加，但增量连续第五个月处于低位，符合市场预期。 "5月以来国际经贸摩擦态势有所降温，避险需求弱化导致国际金价出现小幅调整，但仍处高位。7月央 行继续增持黄金，主要原因是美国新政府上台后，全球政治、经济形势出现新变化，国际金价有可能在 相当长一段时间内 ...