国债期货早盘开盘 2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.02%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.03%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约持平，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约跌0.08%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 16, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends, with those of 1 - 5Y maturities declining by about 0.2 - 1.25bp, 7Y and 30Y maturities rising by 0.10bp and 0.15bp respectively, and the 10Y maturity yield falling by 0.05bp. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.02%, 0.01%, 0.01%, and 0.05% respectively. The central bank shifted to net injection, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rose to around 1.52% and fluctuated [3]. - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the economic data in May was weak. Industrial added - value declined slightly, social retail sales rebounded unexpectedly, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate improved month - on - month. Financial data continued to show a differentiated trend, with government bonds still being the main support for social financing. Affected by the cooling of the real estate market and the replacement of hidden debts, the corporate credit demand weakened. In the trade aspect, the pulling effect of pre - exported goods continued to weaken, and exports declined slightly in May [3]. - Overseas, the US labor market continued to show resilience. The non - farm payrolls data in May was higher than expected, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. The impact of tariffs on prices had not yet appeared. In May, the CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The market's expectation for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was adjusted to September [3]. - In terms of strategy, currently, China's domestic demand still needs to be boosted, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Coupled with the central bank's second conduct of outright reverse repurchase this month to continuously maintain the balance and looseness of the capital market, treasury bond futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended that investors maintain a certain position. However, recently, the short - end treasury bond futures have been significantly weaker than the long - end, and the market differentiation is relatively serious. As the tax payment period approaches, market sentiment tends to be cautious. The weakening of the short - end and the increase in profit - taking orders may drive the yield to rise slightly in the short term and trigger the risk of a compensatory decline in the long - end. Attention should be paid to the risk of a compensatory decline in the long - end due to the short - term spread correction [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 109.015 (up 0.01%), 106.145 (unchanged), 102.466 (up 0.02%), and 120.520 (up 0.05%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 49941 (up 963), 46176 (down 294), 24997 (down 626), and 53995 (up 235) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 were - 0.18 (down 0.01), - 0.03 (down 0.03), 0.06 (up 0.00), and 0.12 (up 0.01) respectively. Other spreads also showed different changes [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts remained unchanged at 194978, 151398, 117711, and 106182 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL increased by 2198, 1859, 1730, and 665 respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds showed different changes, such as 250007.IB (down 0.0222) and 2500802.IB (up 0.0225) [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 0.40bp, 1.50bp, 0.50bp, 0.35bp, and 0.40bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 6.28bp to 1.3872%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 2.09bp to 1.5209%. Shibor overnight decreased by 2.30bp to 1.3880%, and Shibor 7 - day increased by 0.20bp to 1.5100% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - On June 16, the central bank planned to conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 6 months (182 days). The issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase was 242 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 173.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Economic Data - **Industrial and Investment Data**: In May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to May was 19.1947 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment remained flat year - on - year. The real estate development investment from January to May was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [2]. - **Consumption Data**: In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 20.3171 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [2]. - **Industrial Added - value Data**: In May, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - June 17, 20:30, US May retail sales monthly rate - June 18, 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 (in ten thousand people) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is "sideways". In the short - term (within a week), they are expected to move sideways; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), also sideways; and intraday, they are expected to be slightly bullish [1][5]. - The core logic is that macroeconomic indicators have weakened, and the Sino - US economic and trade consultations have not achieved substantial progress, with high uncertainty remaining, which disturbs external demand. The market's expectation of monetary easing has increased, and the downside risk of Treasury bond futures is low. However, the possibility of continuous interest rate cuts in the short - term to boost demand is not high [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "slightly bullish", and the overall view is "sideways". The core logic is the weakening of macroeconomic indicators [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "slightly bullish", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "sideways". The core logic is that last Friday, Treasury bond futures continued to trade in a narrow range. Sino - US economic and trade consultations had no substantial progress, and external demand is disturbed. Domestic macroeconomic indicators have weakened, increasing the expectation of monetary easing. The short - term possibility of continuous interest rate cuts is low. In the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly move sideways, and attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance at the Lujiazui Forum on June 18 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: On June 13, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies varied. For example, the US was 4.401%, and the UK was 4.549%. Changes in yields were also provided for the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For instance, the one - year change in the US was 0.074%, while in Italy it was - 0.384% [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies such as the US, UK, and Germany were presented. On June 13, 2025, the US 2 - year yield was 3.940%. Similar to the 10 - year yields, changes for different time periods were given [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies were shown. On June 13, 2025, the exchange rate against the Brazilian real was 5.544, with the latest change being 0.11%. Changes for the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods were provided [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The performance of major economies' stock indices was reported. On June 13, 2025, the Dow Jones was 5976.970, with a latest change of - 1.13%. Changes for different time periods were also included [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The performance of credit bond indices, including emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield, and US and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield, was presented. The latest changes, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes were given [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3377.00, with a change of - 0.75% [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and its环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were reported. For instance, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 12.72, with a环比 change of - 0.06 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX were given. The risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.46, with a环比 change of 0.01 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were presented. The latest value of A - shares' fund flow was - 1393.57 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized board, and ChiNext were reported. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 14671.97 [4]. - **Main Contract Premiums/Discounts**: The basis and percentage changes of IF, IH, and IC were provided. The basis of IF was - 7.78, with a change of - 0.20% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and percentage changes of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were presented. The closing price of T00 was 108.825, with a change of 0.02% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes (BP) were given. The R001 rate was 1.4620%, with a daily change of - 12.00 BP [5].

国债期货午盘收盘 2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.03%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.04%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.02%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.02%。 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-06-13 政策呵护延续，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...

国债期货午盘收盘 2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约跌0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.04%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.04%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.07%。 ...

国债期货早盘收盘 2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约跌0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.01%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.12%。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年6月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：债市表现偏强，有传言称央行询量六个月期买断式逆回购。国债期货全线上扬，30年期主力合约涨0.23%。银行间主要利率债收益率纷纷下 行，幅度均在1个bp左右。央行连续净回笼，对银行间市场短期资金利率影响不大，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微幅上行，仍位于1.36%附近，七天质 押式回购利率上行超2个bp。半年末时点前虽然流动性仍面临考验，但市场预期相对乐观。 2、资金面：6月11日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1640亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。Wind数据显示，当日2149亿元逆回购到 期，据此计算，单日净回笼509亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.040， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap and stable large - cap". The positive news from the negotiation has ended, and the technology sector related to IM has positive catalysts. Domestic stock indices may fluctuate. The US 5 - month CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month. China and the US have basically reached an agreement framework. The US Treasury Secretary said the inflation data was "very good" and there were other related statements [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, the bond market continued to be favorable, with yields of bonds of various maturities declining slightly. Overnight funds returned below 1.4%, dispelling market concerns. Although the equity market strengthened on Wednesday, the bond market was not much affected. Currently, the two markets are trading their own main lines. The bond market is benefiting from the resonance of fundamentals, funds, and the approaching end of the supply peak. Be patient with the subsequent decline in interest rates [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Allocate on dips [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.89%, SSE 50 rose 0.79%, CSI 500 rose 0.75%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.63% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible fluctuating trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a fluctuating trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3878.80 | 0.89 | 69002 | 115340 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2682.40 | 0.79 | 35407 | 44558 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5761.20 | 0.75 | 47295 | 89802 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6144.00 | 0.63 | 112327 | 144803 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.05 | 0.06 | 47080 | 187358 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.19 | 0.07 | 38116 | 150845 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.44 | 0.23 | 55029 | 105150 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.46 | 0.02 | 23987 | 119103 | [12]