根据交易所数据，截至5月20日收盘主力合约5年期国债期货2509,涨跌-0.04%,成交量5.78万手，持仓数 据显示前20席位呈现净空，差额头寸为4905手。5年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交8.96万手，比上一 日减少4901手。全合约前20席位多头持仓13.75万手，比上一日增加1705手。全合约前20席位空头持仓 14.81万手，比上一日减少2079手。 （新浪期货） ...

【股指期货周一表现各异，后市操作思路需转变】周一沪指低开回升，震荡收平，量能环比持平。轮动 较快，热点持续性有限，并购重组概念活跃，ST 股等有重组预期集体涨停，带动微盘股指数新高，近 百股涨停，全市场无跌停板。上周领涨的大金融回调，银行板块领跌，保险非银熄火。后市缺少主线， 结合期权市场指标，整体思路应从持仓待涨转向逢高止盈，操作上考虑安全垫策略，暂且半仓持有 IM，考虑吃贴水收敛。【股指期权昨日市场稳定，策略以备兑防御为主】昨日权益市场震荡，沪指上 周三突破 3400 点后走势缓慢回落。期权市场成交额 40.35 亿元较上周五窄幅提升，各品种持仓量 PCR 涨跌互现，整体流动性和 PCR 波动幅度有限，交易情绪稳定。期权隐含波动率方面，各品种平值隐波 均下行，策略建议备兑防御为主。【国债期货昨日全线上涨，后续走势或受多因素影响】昨日国债期货 收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.37%，10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%。央行公开市场操作净投放 920 亿元，资金利率多数下行，资金面边际转松。4 月 多项数据发布，固定资产投资和社零同比增速 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After the temporary agreement was reached in the China-US trade talks in Geneva and the tariffs were significantly reduced, the market's risk appetite increased significantly, and the risk aversion sentiment declined, leading to a full - scale decline in treasury bonds and treasury bond futures. Investors expect that the easing of China - US relations will help stabilize the global economy, reducing the urgency for loose monetary policies. Coupled with the strong rebound of the US stocks and the pressure of capital outflows from the bond market, the yield of spot bonds increased and the price of futures bonds decreased. Overall, the short - term pressure on the bond market mainly reflects the phased convergence of macro - risk premiums [1][2] - The repurchase rate has rebounded, and the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates. The 2506 contract is neutral. Pay attention to the widening of the basis. There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.10% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI had a - 0.40% month - on - month decrease and a - 2.70% year - on - year decrease [8] - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 424.00 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.25%; M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.00% and a growth rate of 14.29%; the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.50% and a decline rate of 2.97% [8] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 100.35, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.61 and a decline rate of - 0.60%; the offshore US dollar against the RMB was 7.2163, with a month - on - month increase of 0.020 and a growth rate of 0.27%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.56, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.10%; DR007 was 1.60, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 and a decline rate of - 2.20%; R007 was 1.76, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 and a decline rate of - 10.82%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.64, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.00%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.13, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.00% [9] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On May 19, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.38 yuan, 106.00 yuan, 108.83 yuan, and 119.72 yuan respectively, with the corresponding price changes of 0.02%, 0.10%, 0.18%, and 0.42%. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.056 yuan, - 0.088 yuan, - 0.161 yuan, and - 0.055 yuan respectively [2] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - On May 19, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 135 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.537%, 1.562%, 1.654%, and 1.624% respectively, and the repurchase rates have rebounded recently [1] 4. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread trends, including the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [41][45] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the relationship between the TS main contract IRR and the funding rate, and the basis trends of the TS main contract in the past three years [48][50][61] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the relationship between the TF main contract IRR and the funding rate, and the basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years [57][60][63] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the relationship between the T main contract IRR and the funding rate, and the basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years [66][69] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the relationship between the TL main contract IRR and the funding rate, and the basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years [74][78][80]

国债期货30年期主力合约转跌0.02%，盘初一度涨超0.20%；10年期主力合约涨0.03%，5年期主力合约 持平，2年期主力合约持平。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of TL2506 are both oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and the short - term is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation. The core logic is that although the upward and downward space of treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, the upward momentum is insufficient due to factors such as the weak credit demand of enterprises and residents in April and the low possibility of immediate interest rate cuts, so it is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2506, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and the short - term is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation. The core logic is that the upward space of market interest rates is limited due to the anchoring effect of policy rates, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. However, due to factors such as the weakening of external risks, the need to verify the policy effects of internal economic indicators, and the weak credit demand of enterprises and residents in April, the possibility of immediate interest rate cuts is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. Overall, the upward and downward space of treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and it is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the yields of Treasury bonds strengthened, with yields from 1 - 7Y down by 0.5 - 2bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields down by about 2bp to 1.66% and 1.89% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed up collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising 0.01%, 0.04%, 0.13%, and 0.37% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.66%. [2] - Domestically, policy pre - force boosts domestic demand, resulting in strong economic data. Retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added value slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate improved month - on - month. In April's financial data, credit was weak, possibly due to the overdraft of reserves from Q1 credit issuance. Core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to international commodities. The expected escalation of tariff friction led to an export rebound, and fiscal and monetary policies are expected to be continuously strengthened for stable growth. [2] - Overseas, the US April PMI declined slightly, non - farm payrolls growth, PPI, and retail sales data were all below expectations, and CPI cooled unexpectedly. However, the market has not significantly adjusted the expectation of a June interest rate cut. [2] - Strategically, recent Sino - US tariff negotiations achieved phased results, and the release of interest rate and reserve requirement cuts' positive news led to a significant decline in market risk - aversion sentiment, causing the bond market to weaken. Considering the significant short - end underperformance compared to the long - end recently, there may be no good short - term trading opportunities, and there is a risk of long - end catch - up decline due to short - term spread correction. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T main contract closed at 108.605, up 0.13%, with a trading volume of 57,954, an increase of 8,147. [2] - TF main contract closed at 105.735, up 0.04%, with a trading volume of 42,586, an increase of 10,666. [2] - TS main contract closed at 102.258, unchanged, with a trading volume of 15,952, an increase of 169. [2] - TL main contract closed at 119.320, up 0.37%, with a trading volume of 43,076, a decrease of 8,519. [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2509 - 2506 spread was 0.40, up 0.02; T06 - TL06 spread was - 10.72, down 0.28. [2] - T2509 - 2506 spread was 0.22, up 0.05; TF2509 - 2506 spread was 0.27, up 0.08. [2] - TF06 - T06 spread was - 2.87, down 0.11; TS06 - T06 spread was - 6.35, down 0.14. [2] - TS2509 - 2506 spread was 0.13, up 0.01; TS06 - TF06 spread was - 3.48, down 0.03. [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T main contract open interest was 82,926, a decrease of 16,686. The top 20 long positions were 180,613, a decrease of 1,278; the top 20 short positions were 180,122, a decrease of 642; the net short position was 0, unchanged. [2] - TF main contract open interest was 66,890, a decrease of 12,462. The top 20 long positions were 133,033, a decrease of 1,890; the top 20 short positions were 146,502, a decrease of 2,268; the net short position was 13,469, a decrease of 378. [2] - TS main contract open interest was 37,646, a decrease of 6,630. The top 20 long positions were 89,490, a decrease of 1,659; the top 20 short positions were 108,959, a decrease of 2,221; the net short position was 19,469, a decrease of 562. [2] - TL main contract open interest was 47,914, a decrease of 2,273. The top 20 long positions were 95,272, an increase of 2,512; the top 20 short positions were 95,170, an increase of 2,183; the net short position was 0, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220003.IB (6y) was 107.0295, up 0.0553; 240025.IB (6y) was 99.0955, up 0.0942. [2] - 240014.IB (4y) was 101.4363, up 0.0166; 220021.IB (4y) was 104.4235, up 0.0108. [2] - 250006.IB (1.7y) was 100.2214, up 0.0134; 220007.IB (1.9y) was 101.903, up 0.0236. [2] - 200012.IB (18y) was 136.4822, up 0.3013; 210005.IB (18y) was 135.4265, up 0.2939. [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y yield was 1.4450%, up 1.00bp; 3y yield was 1.5050%, up 1.50bp. [2] - 5y yield was 1.5450%, up 0.75bp; 7y yield was 1.6300%, up 0.75bp. [2] - 10y yield was 1.6790%, up 0.90bp. [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5256%, up 4.56bp; Shibor overnight was 1.5370%, down 11.70bp. [2] - 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6100%, up 1.00bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.5620%, up 1.70bp. [2] - 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6700%, up 3.37bp; Shibor 14 - day was 1.6540%, up 5.30bp. [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR was 3.10%, unchanged; 5y LPR was 3.6%, unchanged. [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Reverse repurchase issuance scale was 135 billion yuan, with a maturity scale of 43 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.5% for 7 days. Another issuance scale was 92 billion yuan. [2] 3.9 Industry News - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng, Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze, and CSRC Chairman Wu Qing attended the Capital Financial Work Symposium. Pan Gongsheng said the central bank will support Beijing in building a high - ground for science and technology finance development and promoting Beijing's RMB internationalization to remain at the forefront nationwide. [2] - US President Trump said he will set new tariff rates for US trading partners in the "next two to three weeks", stating that the US government is unable to negotiate with all trading partners simultaneously. Treasury Secretary Bezant and Commerce Secretary Ratnik will send letters to inform countries of the costs for accessing the US market. [2] - Moody's downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 and adjusted the outlook from negative to stable, citing increased government debt. By 2035, the US federal debt burden will rise to 134% of GDP, and the federal government deficit is expected to reach 9% of GDP. GDP growth may slow as the economy adjusts to tariffs. [2]

期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：国债期货小幅下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.1%。银行间主要利率债收益率小幅上行，幅度多在1bp左右，三年以内中短券收益率升幅仍较明显。 存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率双双大幅飙升，前者上行约22个bp，后者上行超11个bp。近期基本面压力有望缓和，宽松政策节奏放缓的可能上升。 2、资金面：5月16日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1065亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1065亿元，中标量1065亿元。 Wind数据显示，当日770亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放295亿元。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年5月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.0333，现券贴水期货，偏空。TF主力基差为0. ...

Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - The 10 - year Treasury yields of various major economies on May 16, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes are presented. For example, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.480 on May 16, 2025, with a latest change of 0.047, a weekly change of 0.100, a monthly change of 0.144, and a yearly change of - 0.015 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - The 2 - year Treasury yields of some major economies on May 16, 2025, and their corresponding changes are shown. For instance, the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 4.050 on that date, with a latest change of 0.030, a weekly change of 0.270, a monthly change of 0.310, and a yearly change of - 0.770 [3]. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - The exchange rates of the dollar against major emerging - market currencies on May 16, 2025, and their changes are provided. For example, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.665 on that day, with a latest change of - 0.31%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of - 3.76%, and a yearly change of 11.28% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - The stock indices of major economies on May 16, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes are given. For example, the S&P 500 index was 5958.380 on that date, with a latest change of 0.70%, a weekly change of 5.27%, a monthly change of 10.41%, and a yearly change of 14.86% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - The credit bond indices of different regions and levels on May 16, 2025, and their changes are presented. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3344.160 on that day, with a latest change of 0.13%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of 0.90%, and a yearly change of 5.44% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3367.46 with a change of - 0.40% [5]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are given. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 12.56 with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. Risk Premium - The risk premiums and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX are presented. For example, the risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.56 with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. Fund Flows - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are provided. For example, the latest fund flow in A - shares was - 263.31 [5]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, and ChiNext are given. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 10895.29 with a环比 change of - 628.66 [5]. Main Contract Basis and Spread - The basis and spread of IF, IH, and IC are presented. For example, the basis of IF was - 43.09 with a spread of - 1.11% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are provided. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.480 with a change of 0.02% [6]. - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes are given. For example, the funding rate of R001 was 1.6513% with a daily change of 10.00 BP [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 主 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均小幅震荡回调。由于外部风险因素有所缓和，内部经济指标尚待验证政 策效果，4 月信贷数据线上企业与居民部门的信贷需求偏弱，短期内继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 30-year Treasury futures declined by 21 points, while the 10-year Treasury futures fell by 7 points [1] Group 1 - The decline in 30-year Treasury futures indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term bonds [1] - The drop in 10-year Treasury futures suggests a similar trend in the mid-term bond market [1]