7月31日，特朗普签署行政令，明确新版对等关税要点如下： 一、何时生效？ 新版对等关税8月7日生效。在7号之前装船运输中且北京时间10月5日中午12：01之前到港清关的仍适用1日版对等 关税 二、关税率多少？ 行政令公布了对69个经济体的额外加征税率(这69个经济合计占美国2024年进口的52.9%)，水平从10%~41%不等， 其余经济体仍征收10%基准关税。 三、值得关注的变化？ 1、欧盟的15%并非额外加征税率，而是最低税率水平。即，第一栏税率(美国的最惠国税率)不足15%的商品，关税 率加征15%-第一栏税率到15%，第一栏税率超过15%的商品，不加征关税。 2、明确对转运货物适用40%关税。 3、原版对等关税的232行业关税及其他商品豁免应该仍然适用，并非完全独立相互叠加征收。新版对等关税是在4 月2号旧版对等关税第14257号行政令基础上作出修改，并未如关税信函中表述特别提及独立于行业关税。 四、谁不在此次调整中？墨西哥、加拿大、中国 风险提示：测算误差，关税豁免细节尚待明确 墨西哥在未来90天内仍适用25%关税，加拿大关税率由25%上调至35%，符合美墨加协定的商品继续豁免。墨西 哥、加拿大原本 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （SuperSummerSnow） 行政令公布了对69个经济体的额外加征税率（这 69个经济合计占美国2024年进口的52.9%），水 平从10%~41%不等，其余经济体仍征收10%基准 关税。 ■ 三、值得关注的变化? □ 1、欧盟的15%并非额外加征税率,而是最低税率 水平。即,第一栏税率（美国的最惠国税率）不 足15%的商品,关税率加征15%-第一栏税率到 15%，第一栏税率超过15%的商品，不加征关税。 □ 2、明确对转运货物适用40%关税。 □ 3、原版对等关税的232行业关税及其他商品豁免 应该仍然适用,并非完全独立相互叠加征收。新 版对等关税是在4月2号旧版对等关税第14257号 行政令基础上作出修改,并未如关税信函中表述 特别提及独立于行业关税。 ■ 四、谁不在此次调整中?墨西哥、加拿大、中国 □ 墨西哥在未来90天内仍适用25%关税,加拿大关 税率由25%上调至35%,符合美墨加协定的商品 继续豁免。墨西哥、加拿大原本就不在4月2号对 等关税加征名单上,其被加征的关税为芬太尼和 非法 ...

Group 1 - The latest employment data released by the U.S. Department of Labor shows a 0.1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in July, with only 73,000 new non-farm jobs added, significantly below the expected range of 104,000 to 110,000 [1] - The revisions for May and June non-farm employment figures were substantial, with May's data revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total reduction of 258,000 jobs over these two months [3] - Concerns regarding the U.S. economy and employment situation have led to market volatility, with the dollar index dropping over 1%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling by more than 10 basis points, and all three major U.S. stock indices declining by over 1% [9] Group 2 - The market's expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 37.7% to 80.3% [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes that the trade war and tariff increases initiated by the Trump administration are detrimental to all parties involved, with no winners in a protectionist environment [1][10] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to reach 17.3%, the highest level since 1935, due to the implementation of various tariffs and retaliatory measures [1][4] - Experts indicate that the current tariff policies violate World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, particularly the most-favored-nation principle, which prohibits discrimination among trading partners [1][10] Group 2 - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the tariffs will lead to a 1.8% increase in price levels by 2025, resulting in an average loss of $2,400 per household [7] - The impact of tariffs on consumer goods is significant, with projected price increases of 40% for shoes and 38% for clothing in the short term [7] - The tariffs are expected to reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026, with a long-term economic contraction of 0.4% [8] Group 3 - The tariffs are anticipated to increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025, with a total job loss of approximately 497,000 positions [8] - The manufacturing sector may see a 2.1% increase in output due to tariffs, but this growth will be offset by declines in other sectors such as construction and agriculture [8] - The global trade system may undergo significant restructuring due to the U.S. tariffs, with potential demand shocks affecting economies worldwide [10][11] Group 4 - Recent data from the WTO indicates a 3.6% increase in global goods trade volume in Q1 2025, driven by anticipations of U.S. tariff hikes, although growth is expected to slow later in the year [11] - The World Bank forecasts a significant reduction in trade growth for developed economies, with projections for 2025 being halved compared to earlier estimates [11] - The U.S. experienced a 25% increase in imports in Q1 2025, but growth slowed to just 1% in the following months, highlighting the volatility in trade dynamics [11]

Core Points - The U.S. government has announced new "reciprocal tariffs" that will take effect on August 7, following President Trump's executive order signed on July 31 [1][2] - The new tariff rates reflect a more protectionist and isolationist trade policy, with significant implications for global trade dynamics [1][11] - The average tariff rate is expected to rise from 13.3% to 15.2% [6] Tariff Rates Summary - The maximum tariff rate is set at 41%, with a general rate of 10% for countries with a trade surplus with the U.S. [2] - Countries with a trade deficit will face a minimum tariff rate of 15%, affecting approximately 40 countries [2][3] - Specific countries have been assigned varying tariff rates, with Cambodia's rate dropping from 49% to 19%, while Switzerland's rate increased from 31% to 39% [4][3] Impact on Trade Partners - Canada will see its tariff rate increase from 25% to 35%, which has been met with disappointment from Canadian officials [5][4] - The U.S. has implemented a 40% additional penalty on goods deemed to be transshipped from high-tariff countries to low-tariff countries [3][4] - The new tariffs are expected to significantly impact industries such as textiles and automotive in affected countries [4][5] Negotiation and Agreements - The U.S. has only reached a limited number of trade agreements, with only 7 out of over 200 proposed agreements finalized [7][9] - Recent agreements with countries like Japan and South Korea have resulted in reduced tariff rates, but many details remain under negotiation [8][9] - The ongoing negotiations with China have resulted in a temporary extension of tariff suspensions, indicating a complex and evolving trade landscape [10][13] Legal and Economic Implications - Trump's tariff policies are facing legal challenges, with questions raised about the extent of presidential power in modifying tariff rates without congressional approval [11][12] - Economists warn that the new tariffs could have long-term negative effects on the global economy, particularly for Asian economies [13]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy has been finalized, with Singapore emerging as the biggest winner in Asia due to a 10% tariff rate, while Vietnam faces the highest value-added weighted U.S. tariff rate globally. The semiconductor and pharmaceutical industries are warned to face greater uncertainty despite current exemptions from broad tariffs [1][2][5]. Tariff Rates Summary - Singapore: 10% [2] - Malaysia: 19% (down from 25%) [2] - Thailand: 19% (down from 36%) [2] - Pakistan: 19% (down from 29%) [2] - Taiwan: 20% (down from 32%) [2] - Sri Lanka: 20% (down from 44%) [2] - South Korea: 15% [3] - Indonesia: 19% [3] - Philippines: 19% [3] - Vietnam: 20% [3] - India: 25% [3] Value-Added Weighted Tariff Analysis - Vietnam has the highest value-added weighted U.S. tariff rate at 2.3%, followed by Thailand, Malaysia, and South Korea in the range of 1.0% to 1.4% [5][6]. - The analysis indicates that Vietnam has a domestic value-added exposure of 15.1% to U.S. tariffs, while Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, and Singapore have exposures of 9.0%, 8.7%, 6.9%, and 6.8% respectively [6][7]. - In contrast, the Philippines (3.1%), Indonesia (2.3%), and India (2.0%) have relatively lower risk exposures [7]. Semiconductor and Pharmaceutical Industry Risks - The semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors are highlighted as facing potential tariff threats, with the U.S. Department of Commerce expected to announce results of a national security investigation into semiconductor imports, which may lead to new tariffs [8][9]. - A proposed 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals could severely impact Singapore, as pharmaceuticals are a significant part of its trade with the U.S. [8][9].

Core Points - The article discusses the unilateral trade policies implemented by the Trump administration, particularly the new "reciprocal tariff" rates that will affect various trade partners [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Rates and Adjustments - The new "reciprocal tariff" rates will maintain a 10% tariff on imports from countries with which the U.S. has a trade surplus, while a 15% tariff will apply to countries with a trade deficit, affecting approximately 40 nations [3][4]. - Specific countries have been identified with varying tariff rates, such as Canada at 35%, Algeria at 30%, and Switzerland at 39%, with some countries experiencing significant reductions in their tariffs [4][6][7]. - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to rise from 13.3% to 15.2% with the new tariffs taking effect on August 7 [10]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Agreements - The U.S. has reached limited trade agreements with several countries, including Japan and South Korea, but the overall progress has been slow, with only seven agreements reached in 120 days [11][13]. - The article highlights ongoing negotiations with China and Mexico, where both countries have been granted a 90-day window to continue discussions on tariffs [14][15]. Group 3: Legal and Economic Implications - The legality of Trump's tariff policies is under scrutiny, with federal courts questioning the extent of presidential power in implementing such tariffs without congressional approval [16][17]. - Economists warn that the new tariffs could have profound impacts on the global economy, particularly affecting Asian economies, and emphasize the need for international cooperation to mitigate trade barriers [17][18].

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，当地时间7月31日，特朗普签署"进一步修改对等关税税 率"行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的10%~41%不等的新对等关税税率，并于8月7日正式生效。 新对等关税新税率生效后，初步估算美国对全球实际关税税率或由11%升至约16%，与此前特朗普威胁 的关税税率相比更具实施性和可持续性，现阶段的关税收入或基本达到特朗普政府的合意水平，该合意 水平与贸易平衡有关，但更多是为了弥补财政收入。 当地时间7月31日，特朗普签署"进一步修改对等关税税率"行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的 10%~41%不等的新对等关税税率，并于8月7日正式生效。 核心内容 特朗普新对等关税的主要内容：1）10%~41%不等的新对等关税税率适用于70个国家和地区，未提及的 国家依旧征收10%的基础关税税率。2）8月7日正式生效，但货物在8月7日前货物已在装货港装船或在 进入美国之前以最终运输方式转运的商品除外，对10 月 5 日前进入消费或从保税仓库提取用于消费的 货物按此前行政令征收额外从价关税。3）任何试图通过第三国转运来规避该关税的做法将被征40%的 惩罚性税率，不允许减轻或减免对被发现为逃 ...

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices are fluctuating, while copper and gold are trending upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New home sales are experiencing a larger decline, while automobile sales are also retreating; however, summer entertainment consumption is showing signs of improvement [2] - In July, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while the drop in second-hand home sales narrowed. The market is undergoing adjustments, and the growth rate of passenger car sales is slowing down, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales increasing [2] - The box office revenue for summer films has significantly improved, with total box office surpassing 6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.4% [2] External Demand - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has seen lower increases in tariffs for major economies like the EU and Japan compared to April, with China's tariffs being postponed for another three months [3] - Additional conditions require major economies to commit to investments in the U.S. and purchase energy products, with an extra 40% tariff on re-exporting countries like Vietnam targeting China [4] - July exports may see a slight decline, with a decrease in shipping weight and a drop in shipping volume to the U.S. [5] Production - The willingness to reduce production remains limited, with steel mill profits continuing to rise, leading to an increase in production [6] - Pork prices have decreased due to increased market supply, while the overall willingness to cut production remains low [7] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants is expected to rise in July, despite a temporary decrease due to weather conditions [7] Prices - Commodity prices have generally declined, with domestic rebar, thermal coal, and glass prices continuing to rise, while cement prices have decreased [8] - Gold prices are under pressure due to a softer tariff environment and the Federal Reserve's stance, while oil prices are supported by geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand [8] Follow-up Focus - Future attention will be on export data and price data [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has implemented a new tariff rate of 30% on South Africa as part of its "reciprocal tariff" policy, which is perceived to be politically motivated against countries that do not align with U.S. diplomatic positions [1][3]. Group 1: Political Implications - The increase in tariffs is believed to be driven by political considerations, particularly due to South Africa's actions against Israel and its domestic policies perceived as discriminatory against white citizens [3]. - South African economist Jamien highlights that countries with non-compliant diplomatic stances may face U.S. trade retaliation [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact on South Africa - The South African Department of Trade, Industry and Competition has initiated emergency measures to support export businesses affected by the U.S. tariffs, including providing consulting services and market guidance [5]. - The U.S. tariffs pose a direct threat to South Africa's export capabilities, especially in critical sectors such as automotive, agriculture, and steel [5]. - The South African government is committed to supporting domestic employment and ensuring the resilience and competitiveness of its export sector in response to these tariffs [5].