专题：美联储如期降息25个基点 鲍威尔坚称通胀仍处相对高位 美联储在声明中表示，近期指标表明，就业增长放缓，失业率小幅上升，但仍保持在低位。通胀上升， 且保持了一定程度的高企。为支持其目标，同时考虑到风险转换到平衡，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的 目标区间下调25个基点至4%-4.25%。 与7月议息声明相比，本次声明对就业市场的判断由"失业率依然较低，劳动力市场状况保持良好"转变 为"就业增长放缓，失业率小幅上升，但仍保持在低位"，同时新增"通胀上升"的表述。在下调利率区间 时，强调考虑到了"风险转换的平衡"。在描述调整目标区间的条件时，删去了"幅度和时机"的表述。 声明表示，在评估合适的货币政策立场时，委员会将继续监控未来的经济数据的影响。如果风险的发生 会阻碍达成委员会的双重目标，委员会会为调整适当的货币政策立场做好准备。委员会的评估将考虑到 大量信息，包括劳动力市场指标、通胀压力和通胀预期指标、金融和国际形势发展的数据等。 本次会议共有1票反对，为新任美联储理事米兰（Stephen I． Miran），他倾向于在本次会议上降息50个 基点。在上个月投出反对票的鲍曼（Michelle W． Bowman）和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve acknowledged a slowdown in employment growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while also indicating that inflation levels remain slightly elevated, leading to a decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points [1][3][6]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - On September 17, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% by 25 basis points [3]. - The decision reflects a more pessimistic view on the employment market compared to the previous meeting, with the acknowledgment of rising unemployment risks [3][6]. Changes in Statements - The Fed removed the phrase regarding the stability of the labor market and noted that employment growth has slowed [3][5]. - Inflation was mentioned as having increased, a change from the previous meeting where this trend was not highlighted [3][5]. Voting Dynamics - Stephen I. Miran was the only member to vote against the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of 25 [3][7]. - Other members, including those appointed by President Trump, supported the 25 basis point reduction, contrary to some pre-meeting expectations [3][4][7]. Economic Outlook - The committee aims for maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate, while recognizing high levels of uncertainty in the economic outlook [6]. - The Fed will continue to monitor various factors, including labor market conditions and inflation pressures, to assess future monetary policy adjustments [6].

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point, lowering the upper bound of its federal funds rate to 4.25%. The decision, which brings rates to their lowest level since November 2022, was widely expected by markets after weeks of weakening labor data and softer inflation readings. FOMC Trims Target Range by 25 bps, Citing Softer Jobs and Elevated Risks The move trims the target range from 4.50% to 4.25%, marking the Fed’s first rate cut since earlier this year. Chair Jerome P ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with Chairman Powell indicating this is a risk management move amid high inflation and weakening employment, seeking a balance between easing and caution [1] FOMC Statement and Economic Outlook - The rate cut marks a resumption of the easing cycle that was paused since December of the previous year, with some officials suggesting a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points [2] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected this year, with one official predicting a total reduction of 150 basis points by year-end, while another believes no cuts should occur this year [2] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the next two years has been revised down to 4.4% and 4.3%, reflecting increased downside risks in the labor market [2] Inflation Outlook - Inflation has risen and remains at a "slightly high" level, with the PCE and core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2026 adjusted upward to 2.6% [3] Economic Growth Outlook - GDP growth forecasts for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, with a forecast of 1.8% for the end of 2028 [3] Powell's Press Conference Highlights - The rate cut is characterized as a risk management decision, with future rate adjustments to be made based on data, emphasizing the rising downside risks in the labor market [4] - Recent inflation trends show an increase, with August's overall PCE expected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year and core PCE up by 2.9% compared to the previous year, indicating upward inflation risks [4] - Economic growth is slowing, primarily due to reduced consumer spending, with the pass-through of tariffs to consumers occurring but less than anticipated [4] - The Fed's commitment to its independence is reaffirmed, with Powell addressing the influence of individual voting members on rate decisions [4] - Market reactions included significant fluctuations in gold prices and movements in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields following the rate decision and Powell's comments [4] Latest Expectations - As of the report, interest rate futures are pricing in a potential reduction of 45 basis points this year and approximately 72 basis points next year, with a 13.3% probability of the Fed remaining unchanged in October [5]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant disagreement among its members regarding the future outlook, with seven members favoring either one more cut or no cuts, while nine members support two additional cuts [2][5][7] - The current economic environment presents a two-sided risk, complicating the decision-making process for policymakers, as typically weak labor markets coincide with low inflation and strong labor markets raise inflation concerns [4][7] - The Fed Chair indicated that future decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, emphasizing the need to assess incoming data before making further cuts [3][6][7] 分组2 - The futures market appears to be pricing in two additional rate cuts, reflecting investor sentiment about the Fed's future actions [5][6] - There is a level of uncertainty reintroduced into the market, as the Fed Chair acknowledged the lack of clear paths forward, which may affect investor confidence [7][11] - The Fed is facing unprecedented challenges on both sides of its mandate, indicating a complex economic landscape that requires careful navigation [9][10][11]

Group 1 - The preliminary benchmark revisions indicated a decrease of 911,000 jobs, marking the first negative revisions since December 2020, raising concerns about the reliability of data used by the Federal Reserve for interest rate decisions [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics is aware of the issues related to low response rates and the challenges posed by the birth-death model, which complicates job creation data due to the dynamic nature of new businesses [3][4] - There is a need for higher response rates to reduce data volatility, which can be achieved by ensuring that data collection agencies have adequate resources [5] Group 2 - Job creation data tends to be less reliable in the first month due to low response rates, but improves significantly by the second and third months as more responses are collected [6] - If the benchmark data indicating that 51% of previously thought jobs were not actually there is accurate, it suggests a weaker job market entering the year, which could have influenced interest rate decisions if known earlier [7] - The current approach requires focusing on present data rather than past information, leading to timely actions based on the latest available data [8]

Market Overview - DJIA increased by 271 points or 0.59% to reach 46,029, while Nasdaq decreased by 76 points or 0.34% to 22,257, and S&P 500 traded at 6,603, down 3 points or 0.05% [2][4] - Anticipation of a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is influencing market movements, with traders closely monitoring for indications of further cuts [4][5] Company Highlights - Workday saw a significant gain of 6.9% after Elliott Investment Management acquired a stake exceeding $2 billion and expressed support for the company's management, alongside an expansion of its share buyback program to $4 billion [2][4] - General Mills experienced a decline of 1.9% despite reporting higher-than-expected profits for the latest quarter, with revenue meeting forecasts [2][4] - RCI Hospitality Holdings fell by 10.2% following accusations of bribery and other crimes by New York's attorney general, impacting its operations in the strip club and sports bar sectors [3][4] Upcoming Events - Online ticket marketplace StubHub is set to debut on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker "STUB," with shares priced at $23.50 in its initial public offering [3][4] Economic Indicators - Japan's Nikkei 225 index decreased by 0.2% as exports to the U.S. fell by 13.8% in August compared to the previous year, attributed to tariffs on cars [5] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond slightly decreased to 4.02% from 4.04% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing fluctuations with various currencies showing mixed trends against the US dollar, while key economic indicators and central bank decisions are influencing market sentiment. Group 1: US Dollar Developments - The Trump administration plans to appeal a court ruling regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook [2] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming remarks on the job market may indicate future policy directions [2] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that if President Trump views inflation as a problem, he would be open to interest rate hikes [2] - The White House's National Economic Council Director Hassett anticipates economic growth rates exceeding 3% [2] - Wells Fargo Investment Institute raised its 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 2%, up from 1.3% [2] Group 2: Non-USD Currency Movements - The euro against the US dollar reached a new high of 1.1878, the highest since September 2021 [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious, with Governing Council member Escrivá emphasizing the need for flexibility amid ongoing uncertainty [4] - The ECB's Vice President Guindos stated that current interest rates are appropriate [5] Group 3: Canadian and Japanese Currency Insights - The swap market indicates a 93% probability of the Bank of Canada cutting rates, up from 87% prior to the CPI release [5] - Japan's auction of 20-year government bonds saw a subscription rate of 4.00, the highest since 2020 [5] - The offshore Chinese yuan broke the 7.10 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November of the previous year [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD is currently above the 200-period SMA at approximately 1.3480, indicating long-term bullish dominance [8] - The USD/JPY is fluctuating between the Bollinger Bands' middle and lower bands, with potential for a short-term bullish reversal if it breaks above the middle band [9] - The EUR/USD has a key support level at 1.1850, which may trigger buying interest if tested again [9] - The USD/CHF is currently below both the 50-period and 100-period SMAs, indicating short-term bearish momentum [9] - The AUD/USD has a significant support level at 0.6630, which could attract buying interest if approached [10] - The USD/CAD has a critical support level at 1.3680, which may also draw market attention if tested [10] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include US housing starts and building permits at 20:30, followed by the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision and a press conference at 21:45 [11] - The Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook at 02:00, followed by a press conference by Chair Powell at 02:30 [11]

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks churned between gains and losses on Wednesday but ultimately remained near their record levels. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and hung near its all-time high set at the start of the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 260 points, or 0.6%, while the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%. The swings came after the Federal Reserve cut its main interest rate for the first time this year. That move was no surprise for Wall Street, which was widely expecting it. More important was the set o ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with discussions around whether it will be a 25 or 50 basis point reduction, reflecting a divided sentiment among financial experts [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate surged to 4.3% in August, marking a four-year high, while non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, indicating economic weakness [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August remained at 2.7%, suggesting that inflation is not rapidly increasing, which provides room for a potential rate cut [3]. Key Signals to Monitor - Inflation trends: The core CPI is at 3.1%, and any sudden increase in prices could lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its stance on rate cuts [4]. - Employment market conditions: The rising number of individuals applying for unemployment benefits is nearing pandemic levels, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to act sooner [4]. - Trade policies: Potential tax increases proposed by former President Trump could lead to higher prices, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [4]. Market Sentiment - There are two prevailing views in the market: one group anticipates a 25 basis point cut in September, while a more aggressive faction, including UBS, predicts four consecutive cuts of 25 basis points each [5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to proceed cautiously, likely starting with a 25 basis point cut to gauge the economic response before making further decisions [5]. Implications for Consumers - A potential rate cut could lead to lower mortgage rates, benefiting homeowners with existing loans [5]. - Gold prices are rising, nearing $3,600, driven by expectations of rate cuts, which may be advantageous for investors in precious metals [5]. - The recent decline in the U.S. dollar index may prompt holders of dollar-denominated assets to consider diversifying their investments [5].