图片来源 | AI制图 近日，江苏银行发布年报，2024年，营收808.15亿元，同比增长8.78%；归母净利润318.43亿元，同比增长 10.76%。增速与城商行前三甲中的其他两家北京银行和宁波银行相比，都是最高的。 从近十年数据看，江苏银行也是上市城商行乃至上市银行中，业绩成长性最强的一家之一。江苏银行的高 成长性，应该说跟两任董事长夏平和葛仁余高度相关。 这二位在三家银行里搭档了十余年。2013年3月，原南京银行行长夏平就任江苏银行董事长，同年8月，南 京银行信息技术部总经理葛仁余也加盟江苏银行，任首席信息官、信息技术部总经理。这是二人的第三次 搭档。早年夏平和葛仁余均任职于建行江苏分行，此后又都到南京银行任高管。夏平执掌江苏银行十年， 将江苏银行一路带成了国内营收与利润首屈一指的城商行。在2023年，60岁的夏平退休，葛仁余从行长位 置上升任董事长。到2025年，1965年10月出生的葛仁余也临近退休，江苏银行业绩依旧出色。 除了营收与利润增长不错，资产扩张和负债均保持了较快的增长，不良率与2023年持平，拨备覆盖率维持 在较高水平。 不过美中不足的是，江苏银行净息差下滑较多，是已披露年报的头部城商 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 红利资产的定价模式探索系列（I）：AH 红利资 产如何划分——W107 市场观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年全 A 现金分红金额和分红上市公司数量显著提升，有接近 74%的上市公司进行现金分 红，红利股的概念和选股范围得到极大的扩容。分红基础的提升对于红利配置的好处在于能够 进行充分的"高卖低买"，源源不断的选到新的红利标的；难度在于，红利资产内部的分化将会 持续和加剧，将打破以往股息率达到 4%或 5%则涨跌一致较强的选股范式，资产本身的定价逻 辑将显著影响个股和行业的收益表现。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 红利资产的定价模式探索系列（ 2] I）：AH 红利资 产如何划分——W107 市场观察 [Table_Summary2] 红利资产如何划分？ 当下核心关注点 机构赚钱效应：基金重仓跑赢北向重仓，深股通 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent restrictions by banks on early repayment of housing loans indicate a shift in their lending strategies, aimed at managing profitability amidst declining net interest margins and increased early repayment requests [1][5][10]. Group 1: Banking Pressure - Banks are facing a dual pressure of reduced lending opportunities and increased deposits, leading to a shrinking net interest margin, which is currently at 1.52%, below the warning line of 1.8% [5][10]. - In February, the People's Bank of China reported a decrease of 115 billion yuan in long-term loans, indicating a trend of borrowers opting for early repayments [6][10]. - The total balance of personal housing loans was 37.68 trillion yuan at the end of last year, down 1.3% year-on-year, reflecting a growing number of borrowers repaying loans early [6][10]. Group 2: Changes in Loan Terms - Banks have implemented restrictions on the number of early repayment requests and the amount that can be repaid at once, with some banks limiting online repayments to two times a year and a maximum of 200,000 yuan per transaction [1][10]. - The average interest rate for existing housing loans has dropped from 4%-5% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024, further squeezing bank profits [10]. - The increase in early repayments is causing banks to lose significant future interest income, with one insider noting that every 1 million yuan repaid early results in a loss of interest income for several years [10]. Group 3: Deposit Trends - There has been a significant increase in household deposits, with new deposits reaching 14.26 trillion yuan in 2024, and 6.2 trillion yuan in just the first two months of this year [10]. - The total balance of household deposits has surpassed 157 trillion yuan, with per capita deposits exceeding 110,000 yuan, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards saving rather than borrowing [10]. Group 4: Strategies for Borrowers - Borrowers are advised to understand their loan agreements, as restrictions on early repayment may vary by bank and region [16]. - Exploring offline repayment options may provide more flexibility, as these channels are less restricted compared to online methods [18]. - A rational decision-making process is recommended for borrowers considering early repayment, comparing the interest rates of their loans with potential investment returns [19][21].

类似情况并非个例，记者梳理发现，4月以来多家民营银行密集宣布下调存款利率，部分银行5年期存款 利率跌至2.5%以下，且长短期"倒挂"。此外，部分机构月内已进行了两至三次利率下调动作。 部分银行三年期、五年期利率"倒挂" 记者梳理发现，4月以来，多家民营银行密集下调存款利率，其中部分机构已进行了两至三次下调动 作。 例如，华瑞银行本月针对中长期限的存款利率已进行了三次调整。4月1日起，该行五年期存款利率由 2.7%调整至2.65%，随后在4月16日调整至2.55%，最新公告显示，4月28日起五年期存款利率将进一步 下调至2.4%。此外，该行三年期存款利率也在4月16日由2.7%下调至2.6%，并将在4月28日起进一步下 调至2.5%。最新调整后，该行三年期存款月内累计下调20BP，五年期月内累计下调30BP，三年期和五 年期利率出现"倒挂"。 每经记者 李玉雯 每经编辑 张益铭 4月27日，华瑞银行公告称，自次日起调整部分期限存款挂牌利率，其中整存整取三年期、五年期分别 调整为2.5%、2.4%，较此前分别下调10BP、15BP。记者注意到，本月以来，该行已三次调整存款利 率，调整集中在三年期及五年期的利率水平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank [1] Core Views - Changshu Bank's Q1 2025 revenue reached 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.1 billion yuan, up 13.8% year-on-year [4][6] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 1 basis point to 0.76% quarter-on-quarter, and the provision coverage ratio fell by 11 percentage points to 490% [4][9] - The bank's performance remains strong, with revenue and profit growth placing it in the leading tier of the industry despite a slight slowdown in growth rates [6][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total operating revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 9,870.29 in 2023 to 11,601.01 in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.05% in 2023, 10.53% in 2024, and 6.34% in 2025E [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 3,281.50 million yuan in 2023 to 4,199.74 million yuan in 2025E, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.60% in 2023, 16.20% in 2024, and 10.14% in 2025E [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.69% in 2023, 14.12% in 2024, and 13.83% in 2025E [5] Key Operational Insights - The bank's non-interest income saw a significant increase of 62% year-on-year in Q1 2025, contributing 9.3 percentage points to revenue growth [6][9] - Interest income grew by 0.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, supported by asset expansion despite a narrowing interest margin [6][9] - Loan growth was 6.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a focus on optimizing the loan structure and reducing risk exposure [6][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The revenue growth rate is impacted by the base effect, while the dividend payout ratio continues to rise [2][9] - The company is expected to experience a slight increase in net profit for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with projected growth rates of 0.3%, 1.8%, and 1.6% respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.65X for 2025, 0.62X for 2026, and 0.60X for 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 26,414 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 12,142 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.26 yuan, with projected EPS of 0.72 yuan for 2024 [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 1,392,214 million yuan in 2023 to 1,653,004 million yuan by 2027 [12] Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The report forecasts a decline in net interest income from 20,700 million yuan in 2023 to 19,675 million yuan in 2025 [12] - The average return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease from 11.34% in 2023 to 9.31% by 2027 [12] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 6.86 in 2023 to 6.54 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [12] Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase from 33.1% to 33.9% in 2024, supported by strong core capital adequacy [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changsha Bank (601577.SH) with a current price of 9.39 CNY [1]. Core Views - Changsha Bank achieved an operating income of 25.936 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.827 billion CNY, up 4.9% year-on-year [4]. - The bank's loan growth remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6% in loans as of the end of Q1 2025, indicating strong credit demand [6]. - Non-interest income grew by 10% in Q1 2025, contributing 25% to total revenue, reflecting an improvement in the bank's revenue diversification [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Changsha Bank's operating income was 25.936 billion CNY, with a net profit of 7.827 billion CNY, and a return on equity (ROE) of 12.31% [4][28]. - For Q1 2025, the bank reported an operating income of 6.8 billion CNY and a net profit of 2.2 billion CNY, both showing a growth of 3.8% year-on-year [4]. Loan and Asset Growth - As of Q1 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 11.3% and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively, with a significant increase in loan issuance [6]. - The total new loans for 2024 were 56.7 billion CNY, with Q1 2025 alone contributing 42.8 billion CNY, indicating a strong start to the year [6]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income for Q1 2025 reached 1.7 billion CNY, up 10% year-on-year, with net fees and commissions contributing significantly to this growth [9]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.17% at the end of 2024, with a coverage ratio of 312.8%, indicating strong risk management [10][24]. - The bank's credit impairment losses for Q1 2025 were 2.5 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase, but the overall asset quality remains solid [10]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 9.7%, indicating a strong capital position despite the expansion of risk-weighted assets [10][27]. Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2025 to 2.02 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 4.64 for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the bank's growth potential and asset quality [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Southwest region of China, comprising Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, and Tibet, is a significant driver of western development, with several listed banks reporting positive growth in assets and operating performance for 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Scale and Growth - Chengdu Bank is the only bank in the region to surpass 1 trillion yuan in total assets, reaching 1.25 trillion yuan with a growth rate of 14.56% [2][3]. - Chongqing Bank follows with total assets of 856.64 billion yuan, growing by 12.73% [3]. - Guizhou Bank's total assets exceeded 580 billion yuan, with the lowest growth rate among the five banks at 2.29% [3]. - Luzhou Bank and Yibin Bank have asset scales below 200 billion yuan, with Luzhou Bank at 171 billion yuan and Yibin Bank at 109.21 billion yuan [4][5]. Group 2: Operating Performance - All five banks reported increases in both operating income and net profit for 2024, with Guizhou Bank showing the highest revenue growth at 9.46% [6][7]. - Chengdu Bank led in revenue with 22.977 billion yuan, a 5.88% increase, although its growth rate has been declining in recent years [7]. - Chongqing Bank's revenue was 13.679 billion yuan, up 3.54%, with a notable increase in non-interest income [7][8]. - Luzhou Bank and Yibin Bank had revenues below 5.5 billion yuan, with Yibin Bank's revenue growth slowing significantly [8]. Group 3: Asset Quality - Chengdu Bank boasts the lowest non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at 0.66%, while Guizhou Bank has the highest at 1.72%, marking the only increase among the banks [10][11]. - The provision coverage ratio for Chengdu Bank is the highest in the region at 479.28%, indicating strong risk management [10][13]. - Luzhou Bank's NPL ratio decreased to 1.19%, while Chongqing Bank's NPL ratio fell to 1.25% [10][11]. - Yibin Bank's NPL ratio slightly decreased to 1.68%, but it still faces significant risks in certain sectors [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank with a target price of 7.81 CNY per share, corresponding to a 2025 PB valuation of 0.66x, indicating a potential upside of 15% from the current price of 6.79 CNY per share [5][8]. Core Views - The bank's Q1 2025 earnings growth has shown a marginal recovery, with a 1.3% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 6.3% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reflecting improved operational performance [2][5]. - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.17% at the end of Q1 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter, and a provision coverage ratio of 363% [4][5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Growth - In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 6.3%, driven by accelerated asset growth and improved net interest margin [2][3]. - Total assets grew by 8.0% year-on-year, with corporate loans seeing a significant increase of 17%, indicating strong credit demand in the Chongqing region [2][3]. Net Interest Margin - The average net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.61%, stable compared to 2024, supported by a reduction in funding costs [3][4]. - The asset yield decreased to 3.11%, primarily due to the impact of LPR repricing, while the cost of liabilities fell to 1.62% [3][4]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remained stable at 1.17%, with a year-on-year decline in impairment losses of 19.2%, indicating improved credit quality [4][5]. - The provision coverage ratio was maintained at a robust 363%, reflecting adequate provisioning levels [4][5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The bank is expected to achieve net profit growth of 6.6%, 7.6%, and 7.7% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 11.84 CNY, 12.65 CNY, and 13.54 CNY [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Changshu Bank achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and profit in Q1 2025, despite a slight slowdown in scale growth due to weak credit demand. The recovery of the economy is expected to improve demand from small and micro enterprises, providing significant room for credit expansion. Although the net interest margin continues to narrow under asset-side pressure, the ongoing optimization of deposit costs is expected to support the margin. The bank is projected to maintain high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit profit release in 2025. The current low dividend rate has suppressed the bank's valuation, which does not align with its strong fundamentals, indicating substantial potential for valuation recovery if the dividend rate improves in the future [1][10][11]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Changshu Bank reported operating revenue of 2.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.084 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio was 0.76%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 11 percentage points to 489.6% [2][3][9]. Revenue Composition - The bank's net interest income grew by 0.9% year-on-year, reflecting stable growth despite weak credit demand, particularly in small and micro loans. Non-interest income surged by 495.2%, driven by significant growth in fees from insurance and precious metals. Other non-interest income increased by 48.8%, supported by a rise in foreign exchange gains [3][4][5]. Credit Demand and Loan Growth - Credit demand remains weak, leading to a slowdown in loan growth. In Q1 2025, the loan scale increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 7.3% and retail loans by only 0.2%. The bank's strategy of focusing on small and scattered loans has allowed it to maintain a stable loan portfolio despite the challenging environment [5][6][8]. Deposit and Funding Strategy - Changshu Bank's deposits grew by 9% year-on-year, with a notable increase in demand deposits and a reduction in high-cost savings. The bank's proactive management of deposit structure has improved the cost of funding, which is expected to support the net interest margin [7][8]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low, and it has effectively managed retail asset quality through rigorous risk control and increased write-offs. The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable, allowing for a gradual release of provisions to support profit growth [9][10]. Valuation and Investment Outlook - Despite strong fundamentals, Changshu Bank's current valuation is significantly undervalued at 0.68 times the 2025 PB ratio. The low dividend yield has constrained its valuation, but there is substantial potential for recovery if the dividend rate improves. The bank is expected to maintain high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit profit growth in the coming years [10][11].