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数千亿元电网投资 勾勒能源变革新版图
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Zhi Sheng· 2025-06-05 16:39
Core Insights - The rapid growth of renewable energy installations in China is facing challenges in grid integration and utilization, leading to significant waste of green energy [1][3][4] - The State Grid Corporation of China plans to significantly increase its investment in grid infrastructure to enhance the capacity for renewable energy integration, with a projected investment exceeding 650 billion yuan in 2025 [2][5] - The utilization rates for solar and wind energy have declined recently, indicating a mismatch between generation capacity and grid absorption capabilities [3][4] Investment Trends - Both major grid companies, State Grid and China Southern Power Grid, are set to invest record amounts in 2025, with State Grid's investment surpassing 650 billion yuan and Southern Grid's fixed asset investment reaching 175 billion yuan [2] - In 2024, State Grid's investment exceeded 600 billion yuan, resulting in the successful operation of several high-capacity transmission lines, enhancing cross-regional transmission capabilities [5] Renewable Energy Utilization - The utilization rates for solar and wind energy have decreased from 98.0% and 97.3% in 2023 to 93.9% and 93.2% in the first four months of 2025, respectively [3][4] - The need for improved grid infrastructure is critical to ensure that renewable energy can be effectively transmitted and utilized [4] Technological Innovations - The development of a new type of distribution system is underway to accommodate large-scale distributed solar and wind energy integration, with a focus on enhancing system flexibility and intelligence [6][9] - The integration of advanced technologies, such as 5G and quantum computing, is being explored to optimize grid operations and enhance energy quality [10][11] Industry Opportunities - The ongoing investment in grid infrastructure is expected to benefit various sectors within the energy supply chain, including equipment manufacturing and smart technology applications [2][7][8] - Chinese companies are increasingly looking to expand into international markets, capitalizing on the global shift towards renewable energy and smart grid solutions [11]
下滑的新能源利用率:死守还是放宽消纳“红线”?
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-05 04:07
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant discrepancy between reported renewable energy utilization rates and the actual experiences of industry stakeholders, highlighting a concerning decline in utilization rates despite rapid increases in installed capacity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Utilization Rates - As of April 2025, national wind and solar utilization rates were reported at 92.4% and 94.0%, respectively, down 3.7 and 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - For the first four months of 2025, the overall wind and solar utilization rates were 93.2% and 93.9%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.9 and 2.4 percentage points [1]. - The reported utilization rates contrast sharply with the experiences of industry players, who believe that the actual issues of wind and solar curtailment are significantly underestimated [3][4]. Group 2: Installed Capacity Growth - In April 2025, nearly 50 GW of new solar capacity was added, marking a 215% year-on-year increase, while the total new solar capacity for the first four months reached 104.9 GW, a 75% increase [2]. - The rapid growth in installed capacity has raised concerns about the ability of the grid to accommodate such increases, leading to a decline in utilization rates [9][10]. Group 3: Limitations and Challenges - The average curtailment rate for renewable energy plants reached 17% in the first quarter of 2025, with some regions experiencing rates as high as 30-50% [3][4]. - The discrepancy in utilization rates is attributed to different statistical methodologies, with the official rates only considering system-related curtailments, which do not account for other factors leading to underutilization [6][12]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The government has previously set a utilization rate "red line" at 95%, but this has been adjusted to 90% to allow for more renewable projects and installations [12][13]. - There is ongoing debate about whether to maintain or further relax this red line, especially as many regions are already falling below the new threshold [13][14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that without improvements in grid infrastructure and management, the decline in renewable energy utilization rates may continue, potentially undermining China's renewable energy goals [14][15]. - Experts advocate for a shift from merely increasing installed capacity to enhancing the ability of the grid to effectively integrate and utilize renewable energy [14].
中信证券:绿电源网荷储、垃圾发电+数据中心等需求有望迎来高速增长
智通财经网· 2025-06-04 00:56
Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the first national policy on green electricity direct connection aims to balance efficiency and fairness, facilitating the use of renewable energy and addressing challenges in wind and solar energy consumption [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The notification represents the first national-level policy for green electricity direct connection, incorporating both incremental and existing projects [2]. - Previous local government attempts in Jiangsu and pilot projects in Xinjiang have laid the groundwork for this policy, which now includes both new and existing renewable energy projects [2]. - Direct connection refers to power lines that connect energy sources directly to users, bypassing the public grid, with a clear physical trace of the supplied electricity [2]. Group 2: Objectives and Benefits - The policy aims to enhance the consumption of renewable energy by requiring that at least 60% of the annual self-generated electricity from direct connection projects comes from renewable sources, with targets increasing to 35% by 2030 [3]. - It addresses the growing demand for green electricity from users, particularly in high-energy industries, by facilitating a transition to low-carbon energy sources [3]. - The policy encourages cost reduction for users by allowing them to self-declare grid capacity and manage their own responsibilities, thus enhancing flexibility and lowering electricity costs [3]. Group 3: Fairness and Efficiency - Green electricity direct connection projects must comply with national regulations regarding transmission and distribution fees, ensuring that local governments do not waive these fees [4]. - The policy promotes the self-regulation of direct connection projects to increase the proportion of self-generated renewable energy, thereby reducing reliance on the public grid and lowering operational costs [4]. - It allows projects to participate in the electricity market, optimizing their energy consumption patterns while ensuring compliance with energy supply requirements [4].
海博思创(688411):把握新能源消纳大机遇 出海开启新成长
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-06-03 06:27
Group 1 - The company focuses on the rapid expansion of energy storage systems, having shifted its strategy in 2019 to concentrate on energy storage integration, divesting from other businesses to capitalize on the growing demand for renewable energy consumption [1] - From 2021 to 2024, the company's energy storage system sales are projected to reach 0.7, 2.2, 6.2, and 11.8 GWh, indicating a rapid growth in shipment scale, with a strong domestic market share and breakthroughs in overseas markets expected [1] - The company anticipates revenue of 8.27 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.4% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 18.5% and a net margin of 7.9%, significantly outperforming the industry [1] Group 2 - The domestic market is undergoing a transition from policy-driven to market-driven dynamics, with the cancellation of mandatory storage requirements prompting companies to shift from "low-price bidding" to "value creation" [1] - Globally, the demand for energy storage is expected to grow steadily, with projections of new installations reaching approximately 228, 280, and 366 GWh from 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 23%, and 31% respectively [2] - The company is leveraging its product and channel advantages to expand both domestically and internationally, establishing partnerships with leading state-owned enterprises and enhancing its presence in overseas markets through collaborations with major international firms [2] Group 3 - As a leading player in the energy storage integration industry, the company is projected to achieve net profits of 889 million, 1.14 billion, and 1.35 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.3%, 28.1%, and 18.9% respectively [3] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are forecasted to be 4.94, 6.32, and 7.52 yuan per share, with a reference valuation of 18x PE for 2025, leading to a reasonable value estimate of 88.90 yuan per share [3]
八大措施系统破解消纳难题,“新能源第一大省”有望成为全国“样板”
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-03 03:11
Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province, known as the "first province of renewable energy," has initiated "Eight Major Actions" to address the challenges of renewable energy consumption and explore a new path for high-quality development in the sector [2][4]. Group 1: Actions and Goals - The Shandong government aims to optimize the ratio of solar and wind power installations from 3.2:1 to 2.6:1 by the end of the year, complete the renovation and approval of 20 million kilowatts of existing units, and add approximately 1 million kilowatts of compressed air storage and over 2 million kilowatts of electrochemical storage within the year [2][11]. - The "Eight Major Actions" include optimizing the structure of renewable energy installations, enhancing the power system's adjustment capabilities, accelerating the development of new energy storage, and stimulating the demand for green electricity [2][11]. Group 2: Current Challenges - Shandong has experienced a significant increase in negative electricity prices, rising from 19 hours during the same period last year to nearly 50 hours this year, highlighting the urgency of addressing renewable energy consumption issues [4][10]. - The province's renewable energy and clean energy installations exceed 51%, with solar power leading nationally and wind power ranking fifth, yet the rapid growth has led to consumption challenges [4][5]. Group 3: Historical Context and Development - Shandong's solar power capacity was only 4.55 GW at the end of 2016, ranking lower than several other provinces, but has since become the leading province in solar power installations due to strategic policy initiatives and resource advantages [5][6]. - The province began large-scale distributed solar development in 2017, four years ahead of the national promotion, which has contributed to its current leading position in solar energy [6]. Group 4: Future Directions - The province's strategy includes reducing the proportion of solar installations while increasing wind power capacity, a policy termed "heavy wind, light solar," to alleviate the pressure on the power system [11]. - Shandong plans to enhance the flexibility of existing coal-fired power plants, with a goal of completing the renovation of 20 million kilowatts of units by 2025, to support renewable energy consumption [12]. - The development of energy storage solutions, including compressed air and electrochemical storage, is emphasized, with specific targets for new installations in the coming years [13]. Group 5: Infrastructure and Market Reforms - The enhancement of the power grid is crucial for improving renewable energy consumption capabilities, with plans to strengthen the provincial and municipal grid structures and optimize grid operation [14]. - The transition to a new type of power grid that accommodates renewable energy's variability is essential, requiring high-precision forecasting and flexible intelligent systems [14].
两部门印发《通知》有序推动绿电直连发展
Ke Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-03 01:01
原标题:两部门印发《通知》有序推动绿电直连发展 科技日报讯 (记者刘园园)为探索创新新能源生产和消费融合发展模式,促进新能源就近就地消纳, 更好满足企业绿色用能需求,5月30日,由国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合印发的《关于有序推动绿 电直连发展有关事项的通知》(以下简称《通知》)正式发布。 谈及《通知》出台背景,该负责同志提到,近年来,随着我国新能源跃升式发展,新能源消纳压力逐年 递增。在远距离输送的同时,通过绿电直连项目等探索新能源生产和消费集成发展模式,可挖掘就近就 地消纳需求,拓展新能源应用场景,提高新能源资源利用效率。 《通知》提出,绿电直连项目以满足企业绿色用能需求、提升新能源就近就地消纳水平为目标。为规范 项目建设,《通知》要求,新增负荷可配套建设新能源项目。存量负荷在已有燃煤燃气自备电厂足额清 缴可再生能源发展基金的前提下开展绿电直连,通过压减自备电厂出力,实现清洁能源替代。有降碳刚 性需求的出口外向型企业利用周边新能源资源探索开展存量负荷绿电直连。《通知》明确,包括民营企 业在内的各类经营主体(不含电网企业)可投资绿电直连项目。 "《通知》始终坚持以绿为底色,多措并举提高绿电直连项目对新能源消 ...
施耐德电气林婷:破局新能源消纳难题,数智化能力是关键
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-31 08:06
Group 1: Industry Overview - The rapid development of the renewable energy industry in China is driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching 1.18 billion kilowatts by the end of June 2024, surpassing coal power for the first time [1] - The annual new installed capacity of renewable energy is expected to exceed 200 million kilowatts, continuing a rapid growth trend during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which will significantly increase system absorption pressure [1][2] Group 2: Challenges in Renewable Energy Consumption - The challenges in renewable energy consumption arise from various factors, including the intermittent and unpredictable nature of wind and solar power, which complicates accurate forecasting and control [2] - There is a mismatch between the scale of renewable energy installations and the capacity of local power grids, as some regions did not adequately consider grid capacity when planning new projects [2] - Regional imbalances in grid development hinder the timely and sufficient transmission of renewable energy to load centers, with distribution networks facing limitations in accommodating high proportions of distributed renewable energy [2] Group 3: Policy and Investment in Distribution Networks - The release of two significant documents, "Guiding Opinions on High-Quality Development of Distribution Networks under New Circumstances" and "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Distribution Networks (2024-2027)," aims to address the challenges of renewable energy consumption [2] - Investment in distribution networks is increasing, with the State Grid planning over 1.2 trillion yuan for distribution network construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan, accounting for over 60% of total grid investment [4] - The Southern Power Grid expects to achieve 50 million kilowatts of distributed solar power and 2.5 million charging piles by 2025, with a goal of achieving flexible, intelligent, and digital transformation by 2027 [4] Group 4: Technological Innovations and Requirements - The transition to a new power system necessitates new requirements for the reliability, flexibility, and green capabilities of distribution equipment [5] - Schneider Electric's EcoStruxure architecture enables digital collaboration through interconnected products and services, facilitating proactive and preventive maintenance [5] - The introduction of more direct current microgrid solutions reflects the increasing complexity of future power grids, with Schneider Electric launching medium-voltage direct current switches to address this [5]
国家发展改革委 国家能源局关于有序推动绿电直连发展有关事项的通知
国家能源局· 2025-05-30 09:10
Overall Requirements - The article defines "green electricity direct connection" as a model where renewable energy sources like wind and solar power supply electricity directly to a single user without going through the public grid, ensuring clear physical traceability of the supplied electricity [2][3] - The development goal is to meet the green energy needs of enterprises and enhance the local consumption of renewable energy, adhering to principles of safety, environmental friendliness, and responsibility sharing [2][3] Strengthening Planning Guidance - New loads can be paired with renewable energy projects, and existing loads can engage in green electricity direct connection after fulfilling renewable energy fund obligations [3] - Provincial energy authorities should ensure orderly development of green electricity direct connection projects, incorporating them into energy and land use planning [4] Encouraging Model Innovation - The main responsibility for green electricity direct connection projects lies with the load, allowing various entities, including private enterprises, to invest in these projects [5] - Agreements must be established between different investment entities regarding power facility construction, ownership, operation, and settlement [5] Strengthening Operational Management - Safety management measures must be strictly implemented to ensure stable operation of green electricity direct connection projects [7] - Projects should be equipped with necessary protective and control devices to avoid impacting the stability of the public grid [8] Clarifying Responsibility Interfaces - Clear safety responsibility interfaces must be established between green electricity direct connection projects and the public grid, ensuring both parties fulfill their respective safety risk management responsibilities [9] - Projects should balance internal generation and load to ensure power exchange with the public grid does not exceed declared capacity [9] Transaction and Pricing Mechanism - Green electricity direct connection projects should participate in the electricity market as a whole, following registration rules and settling based on power exchange with the public grid [11] - Projects must pay relevant fees according to national regulations and ensure proper metering and settlement practices [12] Strengthening Organizational Support - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration will guide the green electricity direct connection model and monitor project implementation [12] - Provincial energy authorities should refine specific requirements based on local conditions to promote orderly development of green electricity direct connection projects [12]
合理配置储能!国家层面绿电直连文件出台,电网企业不可投资
中关村储能产业技术联盟· 2025-05-30 00:48
文 | 中关村储能产业技术联盟 近日,国家发展改革、国家能源局印发《关于有序推动绿电直连发展有关事项的通知》(发改能源 〔2025〕650号),探索创新新能源生产和消费融合发展模式,促进新能源就近就地消纳。 定义: 文件提到, 本文所指的绿电直连是指风电、太阳能发电、生物质发电等新能源 不直接接入公共电 网,通过直连线路向单一电力用户供给绿电, 可实现供给电量清晰物理溯源的模式。其中,直连线 路是指电源与电力用户直接连接的专用电力线路。 分类: 按照负荷是否接入公共电网分为 并网型和离网型 两类。并网型项目作为整体接入公共电网,与公 共电网形成清晰的物理界面与责任界面,电源应接入用户和公共电网产权分界点的用户侧。 投资主体: 鼓励模式创新。绿电直连项目原则上 由负荷作为主责单位 。包括民营企业在内的各类经营主体( 不 含电网企业 )可投资绿电直连项目。 项目电源可由负荷投资,也可由发电企业或双方成立的合资公 司投资,直连专线原则上应由负荷、电源主体投资。 项目电源和负荷不是同一投资主体的,应签订 多年期购电协议或合同能源管理协议,并就电力设施建设、产权划分、运行维护、调度运行、结算 关系、违约责任等事项签订协 ...
光伏首次超水电装机容量 湖北新能源装机突破5000万千瓦
Ke Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-20 01:43
为增强新能源就地、就近消纳能力,国网湖北电力创新上线新能源调度系统,实现"源网荷储"一体化协 同发展,更好地支持新能源发力,服务新型电力系统建设。 据了解,新能源调度系统能够将海量可控资源进行精细化智能调度控制,并通过云计算技术自动给出最 优的调控策略。解决"源网荷储"资源的聚合监测、预测、分析和调度难题,实现新能源并网需求下 的"自动监测、自动预测、自动分析、自动决策"。 4月12日上午11时43分,襄阳地区新能源发电最大出力突破280万千瓦,其中风电出力81万千瓦、光伏出 力199万千瓦。 5月16日,记者从国网湖北省电力有限公司获悉,截至2025年4月底,湖北风电、光伏装机容量5066.06 万千瓦,占该省电源总装机容量的39.00%。其中,光伏装机4040.29万千瓦,首次超过水电装机容量。 新能源调度系统预测,在未来1小时内,襄阳电网220千伏河牛断面负荷将达到44万千瓦,存在越限风 险。因此,调度系统自动生成控制策略,220千伏龚家桥光储电站和110千伏公铺储能电站开启充电模 式,220千伏丹江水电厂关停一台机组。 国网襄阳供电公司调控中心主任杨高奎介绍,新能源调度系统通过智能化预测技术,能够提前 ...