Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have not significantly impacted commodity prices, with underlying market fundamentals appearing weak [1] Group 1: Commodity Market Analysis - Demand growth is slowing, and OPEC+ is increasing supply, which may lead to lower oil prices until the end of 2026 [1] - The potential price support from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may be offset by other factors, limiting any additional support for commodity prices [1] Group 2: Dollar Index and Technical Analysis - The dollar index is testing key technical levels and may form a bearish closing reversal top pattern [1] - If confirmed, this pattern could trigger a pullback to the 50% support level at 97.021 [1] - Strong resistance is present at the 50-day moving average of 98.070 and the pivot resistance level of 98.238 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing fluctuations, currently at 97.35, with a slight increase of 0.12%, while the overall financing environment in the U.S. Treasury market is tightening [1] Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Conditions - The dollar index opened at 97.23 and is facing resistance from previous highs, indicating a potential for short-term volatility [1] - Initial stabilization of U.S. Treasury yields is providing some support for the dollar, but the index remains constrained [1] - The general collateral (GC) repo rate opened at 4.17%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating overnight funding rates are hovering between 4.00% and 4.25% [1] Group 2: Market Focus and Key Events - Market attention is concentrated on the upcoming Treasury bill auction results and public statements from several Federal Reserve officials, which are expected to influence the relationship between the Treasury market and the dollar [1] - The dollar index faces short-term resistance levels between 97.40 and 97.45, with significant support levels between 97.15 and 97.20 [1] - A trading strategy suggests selling in the range of 97.45 to 97.05, with a stop loss of 20 points and a target at the lower end of the range [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：降息预期高涨，美元走弱，金价再创新高；美国三大股指全线收跌，欧 洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌4.06个基点 报4.106%；美元指数跌0.08%报97.23，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报7.1136；COMEX 黄金期货涨0.58%报3796.9美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美联储委员和英央行委员讲话、美国8月新屋销售。美联储降息 预期高涨，美元指数回落，金价继续创新高。沪金溢价扩大至-10元/克。降息预期 高涨再度推高金价，10期权合约今天到期，到期后或 ...

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 陈佳怡）9月24日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘小幅上涨，报 7.1132，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1133。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.1147。 同日，人民币对美元中间价下调20个基点，报7.1077。 与此同时，美元指数震荡上行，截至9时30分，报97.3384。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛在一份报告中分析，8月份，美联储降息预期强化，叠加市场对美联储 独立性担忧加剧，促使美元重新转弱，人民币汇率升值动能增强，但市场预期保持基本稳定。跨境资金 转为净流入，主要反映了美债收益率下行、外资放缓减持境内人民币债券的影响，外资对中国股票资产 兴趣增强。8月份，银行结售汇顺差收窄，市场主体结汇意愿减弱、购汇动机增强，表明人民币汇率加 速升值并非基本面主导。市场结售汇意愿变化，再次说明市场主体并未积累汇率补涨预期。 ...

Group 1: Currency Trends - In August, the USD index fell from above 100 to 97.8, a cumulative decline of 2.2% due to weaker employment data and increased expectations for Fed rate cuts[3] - The RMB exchange rate strengthened for the fourth consecutive month, with the midpoint rate appreciating by an average of 8 basis points from August 1 to 20, and accelerating to an average of 51 basis points in late August[4] - By the end of August, the RMB midpoint, onshore, and offshore exchange rates reached 7.1030, 7.1330, and 7.1221 respectively, appreciating by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 1.2% compared to the end of the previous month[4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In August, banks reported a surplus in foreign exchange transactions, narrowing to $16.8 billion, the lowest in four months, indicating a decrease in the willingness to settle foreign exchange[22] - The net inflow of cross-border funds was reflected in a shift from a deficit of $7.7 billion to a surplus of $3.2 billion in bank foreign exchange payments[14] - Foreign investment in Chinese stocks reached a net inflow of $10.8 billion, the highest since February, while overall foreign investment in emerging markets was approximately $45 billion[17] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The nominal effective exchange rate index and the real effective exchange rate index of the RMB increased by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, indicating a slight reduction in the impact of RMB fluctuations on export competitiveness[5] - Direct investment foreign exchange payments showed a deficit increase of $4.5 billion to $7.5 billion, with foreign income dropping to $50.2 billion, the lowest in five years[18] - The trade surplus in goods payments decreased by $16.5 billion to $72.9 billion, reflecting slower collection rates from export enterprises[18]

Group 1 - The US dollar index decreased by 0.08% to 97.23, indicating a slight weakening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.10% against the dollar, reaching 1.1814, reflecting a strengthening of the eurozone currency [1] - The British pound rose by 0.11% to 1.3528 against the dollar, showing positive movement for the UK currency [1] Group 2 - The Australian dollar experienced a minor decline of 0.01%, trading at 0.6599 against the US dollar [1] - The dollar fell by 0.05% against the Japanese yen, with a rate of 147.6625 [1] - The Canadian dollar increased by 0.13% against the US dollar, reaching 1.3836, indicating a stronger performance for the Canadian currency [1] - The Swiss franc depreciated by 0.14% against the dollar, trading at 0.7914 [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 6、预期：今日关注欧英美9月PMI数据、美联储主席和委员讲话、美国二季度经常帐。 美联储降息预期高涨，美元指数回落，金价继续走高，再创新高。沪金溢价继续收 敛至-12元/克，人民币走强预期强劲。降息预期高涨再度推高金价，临近期权合约 到期，或有大幅波动可能。 2、基差：黄金期货846.5，现货840.5，基差-6，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单57429千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 白银 1、基本面：降息预期高 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index decreased by 0.36% to 97.31, indicating a weakening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.48% against the dollar, reaching 1.1802, reflecting a strengthening of the eurozone currency [1] - The British pound rose by 0.33% to 1.3513 against the dollar, suggesting positive sentiment towards the UK currency [1] Group 2 - The Australian dollar increased by 0.09% to 0.6600 against the US dollar, indicating slight gains for the Australian currency [1] - The Japanese yen saw a decline of 0.16% against the dollar, with the exchange rate at 147.7310, reflecting a weaker yen [1] - The Canadian dollar appreciated by 0.30% to 1.3818 against the US dollar, showing strength in the Canadian currency [1] - The Swiss franc decreased by 0.38% against the dollar, with a rate of 0.7924, indicating a weaker franc [1]

周一（9月22日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.32%，报97.323点，日内交投区间为97.823-97.323点，北 京时间12:30刷新日高之后，持续震荡下挫；日线图上，美元结束9月17日（美联储降息日）跌至96.218 点以来（含当天）连续三个交易日反弹的趋势。彭博美元指数跌0.19%，报1196.19点，日内交投区间为 1200.20-1196.08点。 ...

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of the China-US interest rate "inversion" has deepened, with inflation expectations also rising [1][14] - Offshore US dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced [1][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with most industry trading activities remaining above the 80th percentile [2][25] - Major indices' volatility has also risen, with the communication sector's volatility exceeding the 80th historical percentile [2][31] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, with all sectors' liquidity indicators below the 40th historical percentile [2][36] Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, communication, non-ferrous metals, and automotive sectors have seen high research activity, while sectors like steel, electricity, utilities, machinery, light industry, building materials, and real estate have shown a rising trend in research activity [3][43] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have continued to lower the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with the proportion of stocks with upward revisions increasing [4][50] - The net profit forecasts for sectors such as non-bank financials, chemicals, coal, and retail have been raised for 2025/2026 [4][21] - The net profit forecast for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index for 2025/2026 has been adjusted upward [4][23] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, but there continues to be a net sell-off overall [5][31] - Based on the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and communication has risen, while it has decreased in non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals [5][32] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing has reached a high point not seen since September 2024, with a net purchase of 466.70 billion yuan last week [6][35] - The main net purchases in margin financing were in the electronic, non-bank financial, and machinery sectors, while net sales were seen in military, non-ferrous metals, and coal sectors [6][39] Active Equity Funds and ETFs - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in coal, communication, and home appliance sectors, while reducing positions in computers, non-bank financials, and electronics [7][45] - ETFs have continued to see net subscriptions, primarily in personal ETFs, with significant net purchases in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors [7][52]