软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.65%，报收 64.04 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.4%，报收 13790 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 9091 手至 51.31 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14585 元/吨，较前一日上涨 15 元/吨。国内市场方面，宏观层面仍有扰动，数据 | | | | 显示美国就业仍有韧性，美联储降息预期小幅波动，美元指数震荡走强，美棉价 | | | | 格承压下行。基本面方面，近期美棉出口仍然承压，拖累美棉价格。此外关注将 | | | 棉花 | 于下周发布的 USDA12 月报。国内市场方面，郑棉期价低开，尾盘跌幅收窄。我 | | | | 们认为宏观有利好预期、棉花需求相对稳定、年度供需压力不大是近期行情主要 | | | | 驱动因素。但需要看到的是，当前多空因素均有，供应压力仍存，若价格持续上 | | | | 行，上方还有套保压力。展望未来，短期郑棉或仍偏震荡运行为主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar, with significant increases noted in both offshore and onshore rates, attributed to a cooling US job market and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rates - As of December 3, the offshore yuan broke the 7.06 mark against the US dollar, reaching a high of 7.05625, the highest since October 10 of the previous year [1]. - The onshore yuan also approached 7.06, with a peak of 7.0613, marking a similar high since October 10 of the previous year [1]. - The central parity rate of the yuan against the dollar was adjusted up by 40 basis points to 7.0754, the highest since October 15 of the previous year [1]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - The chief economist at Caixin Financial Holdings noted that the cooling US job market has shifted the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook towards a higher probability of cuts, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [1]. - The US dollar index fell below 100 on November 25 and has continued to decline, although fluctuations are expected in December due to upcoming GDP data releases [1]. - The chief economist at Minsheng Bank indicated that while the dollar's movements may cause some disturbances to the yuan's exchange rate, the overall impact is expected to be limited [1]. Group 3: Investment and Market Sentiment - The attractiveness of domestic assets has increased, supporting the yuan's exchange rate, with strong performance in China's A-shares attracting global capital inflows [2]. - The chief economist at Caixin Financial Holdings anticipates a moderate appreciation of the yuan by year-end and into the next year, with "two-way fluctuations" becoming the norm [2]. - The chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng emphasized that China's robust growth policies will provide substantial support for the yuan's exchange rate, projecting strong economic resilience by 2026 [2].

▲ATFX图 名义PCE数据包含食品和能源等短周期剧烈波动的品种，数据稳定性较差，所以市场更看重核心PCE数据。历史数据看，美国核心PCE处在相对平稳 的波动状态：2024年5月份至今，核心PCE最大值2.989%，最小值2.615%，保持震荡态势。市场预期的9月份核心PCE数据2.9%，依旧处于区间内部， 不会改变当前的震荡状态。 ▲ATFX图 ATFX汇评：今日23:00，美国商务部将公布美国9月PCE相关数据，这份数据报告本应在10月份发布，但由于美国政府停摆，数据发布日期一再推迟， 时至今日才能最终发布。9月名义PCE年率数据看，前值为2.7%，预期值2.8%，预期微增0.1个百分点。9月核心PCE年率数据，前值为2.9%，预期值持 平。综合来看，名义和核心PCE数据均保持相对稳定，预计数据发布对美元行情的冲击较弱。 在美国核心PCE年率在2.9%附近波动时，美联储自9月份开始降息，已经连续降息两次，累计50基点。12月份的美联储利率决议也极有可能再次降息。 2.9%的通胀率处于温和通胀标准的2%～3%的上限附近，一旦货币政策过度宽松，有可能导致美国高通胀问题卷土重来，利空美元指数。 ▲ATFX图 技 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.65%，报收 64.04 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.4%，报收 13790 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 9091 手至 51.31 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14585 元/吨，较前一日上涨 15 元/吨。国内市场方面，宏观层面仍有扰动，数据 | | | | 显示美国就业仍有韧性，美联储降息预期小幅波动，美元指数震荡走强，美棉价 | | | | 格承压下行。基本面方面，近期美棉出口仍然承压，拖累美棉价格。此外关注将 | | | 棉花 | 于下周发布的 USDA12 月报。国内市场方面，郑棉期价低开，尾盘跌幅收窄。我 | 震荡 | | | 们认为宏观有利好预期、棉花需求相对稳定、年度供需压力不大是近期行情主要 | | | | 驱动因素。但需要看到的是，当前多空因素均有，供应压力仍存，若价格持续上 | | | | 行，上方还有套保压力。展望未来，短期郑棉或仍偏震荡运行为主，随着时间推 | ...

Group 1 - The domestic gold prices in retail stores remain stable, with the highest price at 1328 CNY per gram and the lowest at 1232 CNY per gram [1][3] - Major brands such as Lao Miao, Liufeng, and Chow Tai Fook have not changed their gold prices, maintaining stability [1][3] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores is consistent at 96 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - Platinum prices have decreased, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry now priced at 662 CNY per gram, down by 9 CNY [4] - The gold recycling prices have seen a slight increase of 2.7 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among different brands [4] - The current gold recycling prices for various brands range from 907.90 CNY to 942.60 CNY per gram [4] Group 3 - International gold prices showed fluctuations, with a recent low of 4173.79 USD per ounce and a high of 4241.17 USD per ounce, closing at 4206.63 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.09% increase [6] - As of the latest update, the spot gold price is reported at 4224.98 USD per ounce, indicating a 0.44% increase [6] - Analysts note that rising U.S. Treasury yields are limiting gold's upward potential, while fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index provide some support for gold prices [6]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market shows a clear divergence this week, with non-ferrous and precious metals performing strongly while the energy and chemical sectors continue to weaken [1] - Copper futures lead the non-ferrous metals sector with a rise of over 2%, while zinc follows with a 1.4% increase [1] - In the precious metals sector, silver futures stand out with a remarkable increase of over 6% [1] Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - The copper market has seen prices break through key resistance levels, reaching historical highs, driven by supply tightness and increasing demand [2] - Major copper-producing countries like Chile are underperforming in production, leading to a shortage of copper concentrate and low processing fees [2] - Demand from sectors such as renewable energy and grid construction continues to rise, providing solid support for copper prices [2] Group 3: Silver Market Performance - Silver futures have surged over 6%, primarily due to expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and concerns over copper production adjustments [3] - The market anticipates that geopolitical risks may lead to a technical correction in silver prices if supportive factors diminish [3] Group 4: Palm Oil Market Trends - The palm oil market has shown stability, with futures prices rising over 1% due to increased imports from India, which grew by 4.6% month-on-month [4] - The price of palm oil remains approximately $100 per ton lower than soybean oil, encouraging Indian buyers [4] - Despite high domestic oilseed inventories, the demand growth from India is expected to support palm oil prices in the short term [4] Group 5: Liquefied Gas Market Insights - Liquefied gas futures have shown strong performance, supported by tightening supply and demand dynamics in the Far East market [5] - Supply reductions from the Middle East due to equipment maintenance and increased domestic demand have contributed to this trend [5] - The stock market, particularly the energy and chemical sectors, has also performed well, indicating a correlation with liquefied gas futures [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a weakening dollar index and improved market sentiment towards the RMB, following a period of trade tensions and policy adjustments [2][3][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Changes - Since late November, the offshore RMB has appreciated over 550 pips, while the onshore RMB has appreciated over 400 pips, indicating a return to an appreciation trend [2]. - The RMB's appreciation is supported by a weakening dollar index, which has declined by 1% from its peak, aligning with the RMB's appreciation [2][4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The driving force behind the RMB's appreciation is the increase in foreign exchange settlement (结汇) by exporters, which had been low earlier due to tariff impacts and unstable exchange rate expectations [3]. - Since the third quarter, there has been a notable improvement in the willingness to settle foreign exchange, leading to a compensatory settlement that supports RMB appreciation [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - Looking ahead, the RMB is expected to continue appreciating slowly, contingent on a further weakening of the dollar index [4]. - The central bank's policy aims for a gradual appreciation of the RMB, with recent indicators suggesting a shift towards preventing rapid appreciation to avoid negative impacts on exports [4]. - The market has priced in three potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, limiting the scope for further declines in long-term US Treasury yields and maintaining the interest rate differential between China and the US [4].

Core Insights - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1050.58 tons of gold, an increase of 4 tons from the previous trading day [6] - Gold prices fluctuated around $4200 per ounce, closing at $4208.60, up $5.67 or 0.13% [6] - The U.S. labor market shows mixed signals, complicating market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting [6][7] Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of December 4, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings reached 1050.58 tons, marking a notable increase [6] - The increase in ETF holdings coincides with gold prices stabilizing around the $4200 mark [6] Group 2: Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims dropping to the lowest level since September 2022, while layoffs remain high [6] - The mixed signals from the labor market are leading to a complex outlook for the Federal Reserve's policy direction [6][7] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The dollar index's decline is favorable for precious metals, but rising U.S. Treasury yields are suppressing gold's upward momentum [7] - Despite profit-taking, any pullback towards $4000 could attract new buyers, indicating strong underlying demand for gold [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold is forming a triangular consolidation pattern around $4200, with technical indicators showing no clear direction [8] - Resistance levels are identified at approximately $4230, $4240, and $4264, while support is noted at $4178 and $4165 [8]

周五(12月5日)亚洲时段，白银期货拉升走强，截至发稿，沪银主力合约暂报13622.00元/千克，上涨 0.03%，目前来看，沪银主力盘内短线偏上行。投资者目前正密切关注将于周五公布的美国9月PCE物价 指数报告，小心引爆白银市场行情！ 【要闻速递】 周四公布的数据显示，上周美国初请失业金人数降至19.1万人，是逾三年来最低，远低于经济学家预期 的22万人。该数据降低了市场对美国劳动市场恶化的担忧，但并未改变市场对下周美联储降息的预期。 美国10年期国债收益率上涨5.2个基点至4.108%，30年期收益率上涨4.1个基点至4.766%，两年期收益率 上涨4.5个基点至3.531%。这一抛售潮部分归因于劳动力市场韧性的显现，略微打击了降息预期，同时 投资者在美联储会议前整固仓位。 投资者目前正密切关注将于周五公布的美国9月PCE物价指数报告，这是美联储最青睐的通胀指标。北 京时间周五23:00，美国经济分析局将公布9月份个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数，势必会引发金融市场的 剧烈波动。 周四，尽管最新的美国就业数据显示劳动力市场依然坚挺，但降温迹象也开始显现，白银价格小幅上 涨。市场对美联储降息的预期支撑了银价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in silver prices is attributed to profit-taking after reaching record highs, indicating a potential market correction phase [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On December 4, silver prices fell sharply by nearly 3% after hitting a historical high of $58.96, reflecting aggressive profit-taking by traders [1]. - The current silver price is reported at $57.42 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.57% despite the recent downturn [1]. - The market is expected to test the 50% retracement level at $53.81, with the 50-day moving average at $50.45 serving as a key trend indicator [1]. Group 2: Economic Influences - The recent sell-off in silver is linked to strong U.S. economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials that downplay aggressive rate cuts, which could negatively impact non-yielding assets like silver [2]. - The U.S. Treasury market saw a decline, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.2 basis points to 4.108%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Silver prices are currently oscillating below trendline resistance, with bullish momentum weakening but still supported by various moving averages [3]. - Key support levels to watch for silver prices are $56.45 and $55.70, while resistance levels are at $57.65 and $58.00 [3].