【环球网财经综合报道】中国人民银行日前发布《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》指出，下阶段将继续实施 好适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充 裕和社会融资条件相对宽松。未来将常态化开展国债买卖操作，关注长期收益率的变化。 值得关注的是，针对市场对银行存款"流失"的担忧，央行分析指出，居民资产配置调整最终会回流到银行体系，并不 意味着流动性状况出现较大变化。 与此同时，人民币对美元的升值在历史上推动了中国股市的回报，其中周期性、成长型股票的表现优于防御型股票。 但由于大宗商品和金属价格上涨导致输入成本增加，部分周期性、成长型龙头企业能够通过成本转嫁或提价来应对， 而其他行业如汽车、消费电子和家电等，则可能面临利润空间受挤压的风险。 摩根大通近日发文则强调了中国消费市场的上行交易机会。报告认为，尽管消费者变得更为审慎，但他们对高品质产 品的支付意愿强烈，推动了相关领域的增长。这一趋势得益于中国家庭资产负债表的改善和消费观念向更务实、重品 质的转变。 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 11 日 [Table_Title] Q4 货政报告，七点变化 2 月 10 日，人民银行发布 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告（以下简称四季度报告），关注以下几点： 第一，政策基调：删除三稳表述，要求促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升。三季度报告中的"稳增长、稳 就业、稳预期"在四季度报告中删除，背景是 2025 年 5%增长目标顺利完成，而 2026 年一季度地方债发行前 置、信贷开门红等因素带动，经济增速有望在去年四季度基础上回升。更重要地，考虑到 2026 是十五五开局之 年，政策也要更加注重中长期，因而"不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，取代了单纯的"稳增长"。具体到货币 政策方面，四季度报告延续了 2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议的表述，"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作 为货币政策的重要考量"，以及"引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需"。物价合理回升在三季度报告中也有提及，但 四季度报告将其放在更靠前的位置，可见重视程度上升。扩内需是十五五时期的核心战略任务，专栏一也分析了 货币和财政政策协同支持扩内需的三种方式，以及 ...

当地时间周二（2月10日），克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示，她认为当前的货币政策"处在一个良 好的位置"，可以维持利率不变。根据她的预测，美联储可能会"在相当长一段时间内按兵不动"。 哈马克是今年联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）拥有轮值投票权的四位地区联储主席之一，她周二在俄亥 俄州哥伦布市举行的俄亥俄银行联盟经济峰会上发表了讲话。 美联储上个月将联邦基金利率维持在3.5%—3.75%的区间，此前曾在去年秋季连续三次降息。 "我认为货币政策目前处在一个适合保持观望的阶段，我们可以在评估最新数据的同时，权衡是否以及 如何进一步调整政策。根据我的预测，我们可能会在相当长一段时间内维持现状，"哈马克表示。 哈马克指出，美国通胀水平仍然偏高，并且在过去两年多时间里基本呈横向波动。她认为，今年通胀率 仍可能维持在接近3%的水平，与前两年大致相同。 美联储将2%设定为长期通胀率目标，并且倾向于以核心PCE（个人消费支出价格指数）为通胀衡量指 标。 哈马克称，自己需要看到更具决定性的证据，证明价格水平正在持续回落。与其试图对利率进行"微 调"，她更倾向于在评估去年秋季三次降息对经济增长影响的过程中，"在政策上保持耐心"。 ...

当地时间2月10日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.1%，纳指跌0.59%，标普500指数跌0.33%。 据媒体报道，分析指出，美国2025年12月零售销售意外停滞，表明消费者在年末的支出更为谨慎。数据 显示，在13个零售类别中，有8个类别出现下降，包括服装店和家具店。汽车经销商销售额同样下滑。 与此同时，建筑材料商店和体育用品零售商的支出则有所增长。这些数据显示，在假日购物季接近尾声 时，消费者支出动能有所减弱。尽管许多经济学家预计今年的退税将支撑年初的需求，但家庭仍对高昂 的生活成本感到不满，并对就业市场的担忧持续存在。消费者支出的广度也令人担忧。股市上涨创造的 财富可能刺激需求，但有迹象表明，主要依靠温和工资增长的低收入美国人的非必需品支出不那么强 劲。 eToro的Bret Kenwell认为，这份报告"并非灾难"，但也不是建设性信号，尤其是在劳动力市场担忧仍 在，且多种资产类别持续波动的背景下。 同日公布的ADP数据显示，截至1月24日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周增加6500人。 当地时间2月10日，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示，她认为当前的货币政策"处在一个良好的位 置"，可以维持 ...

政策层面，关税还被赋予了更广泛的财政意义。米兰强调，关税收入在一定程度上增加了政府财政来源，对缓解基础财政赤字具有积极作用。对于当前财政 压力较大的美国而言，这一收入渠道被视为配合产业与贸易政策的重要工具，而不仅仅是贸易谈判中的筹码。 与此同时，美国最高法院正在审议部分关税措施的合法性，一旦裁决结果发生变化，现行贸易框架可能面临调整。此前特朗普方面已经明确表示，如果相关 政策被推翻，可能对经济和市场信心产生较大冲击。制度层面的不确定，使企业在投资和供应链布局上仍保持谨慎。 米兰也提到劳动力市场已经出现边际降温迹象，并认为当前利率水平偏高，未来存在下调空间。如果就业继续走弱，而关税对通胀的影响又保持温和，那么 货币政策面临的约束将进一步减轻。从FXTRADING角度来观察，关税争议本身对市场的直接冲击正在减弱，反映的是美国政策组合正在向财政扩张与货币 边际宽松并行的方向演变。如果就业降温趋势确认，而通胀未因关税明显反弹，美元中期强势逻辑可能逐步松动，市场重心将更多转向降息预期与增长放缓 之间的再平衡。 美联储理事米兰近日在一场公开活动中表示，过去一年市场对关税冲击的担忧明显被放大。从实际运行情况来看，无论是经济 ...

在哈马克看来，当前货币政策已接近中性水平，不对经济活动形成实质性抑制，利率未来上下行风险大 致均衡。她还提到正密切关注关税对价格的影响，不少企业反馈关税上调推高成本，部分已转嫁给消费 者，另有企业计划后续提价；电力和医疗保险费用上涨也在推高整体成本，目前无法判断这些成本压力 是否已见顶。 就业方面，哈马克表示劳动力市场趋于稳定，当前4.4%的失业率与去年9月水平接近，求职者数量与职 位空缺数量大致平衡，初请失业救济人数处于低位，尽管企业裁员通知数量与历史均值相当，但已有部 分公司宣布裁员计划。她预计在去年降息和财政政策支持下，今年经济增长将加快，带动企业扩大投 资、劳动力市场走强，年内失业率或进一步下降。 谈及银行体系时，哈马克指出稳健的银行体系对经济和货币政策传导至关重要，需通过调整监管与审慎 监督确保其成为经济增长支柱，过度放松监管会削弱银行韧性，承压时难以发挥作用。针对近期备受关 注的美联储独立性话题，她表示国际经验显示央行独立性较弱的国家往往通胀水平更高。 当地时间2月10日，今年拥有联邦公开市场委员会轮值投票权的克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克，在俄亥 俄州哥伦布市举行的俄亥俄银行联盟经济峰会上发表讲话 ...

报告还以专栏文章形式，探讨了存款增速回落、合理看待流动性总量、财政金融协同等热点话题。 要点速览： ——货币政策工具：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。 ——利率：促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 ——汇率：保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 ——银行存款与资管产品：2025年三季度，居民存款增速高位有所回落，各方关注增多，出现了关于银 行存款"流失"的探讨。过去一年资管类产品规模则增长较快。从资管产品与银行存款合并角度来看待这 些现象，可以更好观察金融体系流动性状况。 引导金融总量合理增长 关于下一阶段货币政策，报告明确，继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理 回升作为货币政策的重要考量，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力 度、节奏和时机。 央行2月10日发布的2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告明确了下一阶段货币政策主要思路。报告明 确，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽松。 业内专家表示，"再贷款+财政贴息"方式，把央行再贷款工具与财政贴息政策结合。再贷款通过激励金 融机构，从供给端引导信贷投向；财政贴息通过补贴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategist from State Street Bank, Lee Ferridge, indicates a potential 10% decline in the US dollar this year, particularly after the next Federal Reserve chair takes office, leading to increased uncertainty in monetary policy [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts around June, with at least two cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year [1]. - Ferridge suggests that a third rate cut could occur in 2026, influenced by potential pressure from President Trump on the new chair to lower borrowing costs [1]. - He emphasizes that the Fed's policy is entering a more uncertain phase, with the possibility of three rate cuts being plausible [1]. Group 2: Impact on the US Dollar - The US dollar index has declined approximately 1.7% this year, following a nearly 8% drop last year, marking the worst annual performance since 2017 [4]. - Concerns over trade tensions, uncertainty in the US fiscal outlook, and Trump's ongoing pressure on the Fed have negatively impacted the dollar [4]. - Ferridge notes that if Kevin Walsh, a former Fed governor, is confirmed as the new chair, he may implement a more accommodative monetary policy as desired by Trump [4]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Currency Hedging - A deeper rate cut would lower the cost for foreign investors to hedge their US assets, increasing their hedging activities and putting further pressure on the dollar [1]. - Currently, the hedging ratio for foreign investors in US dollar assets is about 58%, down from over 78% before the Fed began raising rates in 2022 [4]. - Ferridge mentions that if Walsh takes over and begins sustained rate cuts, a significant sell-off of the dollar could commence, with room for increased hedging by foreign investors [4].

Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank's report emphasizes the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2] Interest Rate Management - The report outlines plans to further improve the interest rate adjustment framework, strengthen the guidance of central bank policy rates, and enhance the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism [2] - The goal is to lower bank funding costs and promote low-level operation of comprehensive social financing costs [2] Exchange Rate Stability - The report calls for maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, using a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand [2] - It emphasizes the need to strengthen expectations management and prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [2] Financial Structure and Support - The report discusses the implementation of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [2][3] - It highlights the collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies to enhance financial support for these sectors [4][5] Asset Management Products and Deposits - The report notes a decline in the growth rate of household deposits in Q3 2025, while asset management products have seen rapid growth, indicating a shift in financial asset allocation [8][9] - The total assets of asset management products reached 120 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [8] Liquidity Assessment - The report suggests that combining asset management products with bank deposits provides a better perspective for assessing the liquidity conditions of the financial system [9][10] - The total liquidity indicator, which aggregates various liquid financial instruments, showed a year-on-year growth of approximately 8.1% by the end of 2025, indicating stable growth trends [10]

Group 1 - December retail sales in the U.S. showed an unexpected 0% month-over-month change, indicating weaker-than-expected consumer support for the economy during the holiday shopping season [1] - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that December retail sales, unadjusted for inflation, fell short of the expected 0.4% increase, also lower than the 0.6% growth in November [1] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and gas stations, decreased by 0.1% month-over-month [1] Group 2 - Among 13 retail categories, 8 experienced a decline in sales, with clothing and furniture stores seeing year-over-year drops, while building materials and sporting goods stores reported growth [3] - The spending power of low-income households remains weak, despite rising stock markets potentially supporting high-income household spending [3] - Restaurant and bar spending, the only service category in the retail report, saw a slight month-over-month decline of 0.1% after a significant increase in the previous month [3] Group 3 - Severe cold weather in late January hindered economic activity across much of the U.S., complicating the assessment of the true consumer demand fundamentals at the beginning of the year [4] - Economists expect that tax refunds early in the year will support consumer spending, with household spending projected to contribute over 2 percentage points to fourth-quarter economic growth [4] Group 4 - Recent corporate trends indicate a divergence in consumer spending patterns across different income groups, with Levi's noting no observed contraction in spending despite price increases, while PepsiCo highlighted significant budget pressures on low- to middle-income consumers [5] - Lululemon has observed a shift among U.S. consumers towards more cost-effective spending choices [5] - The retail data may be influenced by significant discounts during the holiday season, primarily reflecting goods consumption, which accounts for about one-third of total household spending in the U.S. [5]