Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the provided reports. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level oscillations. The US debt ceiling is about to expand, and employment data increases the expectation of a US interest rate cut. Although tariff and geopolitical risks have decreased, medium - and long - term uncertainties remain, and the long - term global order is being reshaped, making gold a strategic allocation [1]. - Silver will have range - bound oscillations. Base metals are supported by future economic policy stimuli. The gold - silver ratio has returned to the normal range, and the contract price around 8700 should be monitored. Silver is highly elastic and is greatly affected by base metals and gold price sentiment, so position control is necessary [1]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in copper. Overseas, the US dollar continues to weaken, and there is speculation about domestic anti - involution supply - side reform 3.0. There are disruptions in Peruvian copper mines. It is advisable to hold previous long copper positions, and some can be liquidated at high prices. There is a long - term bullish view on copper [1][9]. - Zinc will have narrow - range oscillations. Macro and sector sentiments are positive, zinc concentrate processing fees are recovering, domestic zinc inventories are slightly increasing, and it is the domestic consumption off - season with weakening demand. In the long run, zinc supply will increase while demand will be weak, so opportunities to short at high prices should be grasped [1][11]. - Carbonate lithium will have a rebound. It is mainly driven by speculation on macro - policy expectations and emotional trading. There are large differences in the market regarding downstream production schedules. Production has reached a 5 - year high, and total inventory continues to hit new highs. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 65,000 [2]. - Lead will have a rebound. After the maintenance of primary lead smelting enterprises, production has resumed, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises have been repaired. There is an expected increase in supply in July, while the downstream battery consumption is not optimistic, leading to a short - term rebound in lead prices [3]. - Tin's rebound is under pressure. The supply of Burmese tin mines has not resumed, transportation is difficult during the rainy season, and the resumption of production in the Wa State mining area has stalled. Tin consumption in the terminal field has entered the off - season, resulting in a short - term rebound and then decline in tin prices [3]. - Aluminum will have a rebound. The domestic policy environment is favorable, and the continuous reduction of aluminum ingot social inventory in June provides short - term support. However, the terminal is gradually entering the off - season, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation downstream, leading to a short - term rebound in aluminum prices [3]. - Nickel will stabilize. There are favorable policies for the downstream stainless - steel industry, and domestic refined nickel inventories have slightly decreased. However, terminal consumption is weakening in the off - season, and there is still an expected pressure of inventory accumulation in stainless - steel, resulting in a short - term stabilization of nickel prices at a low level [3]. - Industrial silicon will have a rebound. Leading manufacturers have cut production, combined with speculation on macro - policy expectations, causing the contract price to increase with higher trading volume. In the short term, the fundamentals have not significantly improved, and total inventory remains high. The main contract is strongly trending, waiting for contradictions to accumulate [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Condition**: The US debt ceiling expansion and weak employment data increase the expectation of a US interest rate cut. Although tariff and geopolitical risks have decreased, long - term uncertainties remain, and the long - term global order is being reshaped [1][5]. - **Data Support**: ADP data shows that the number of private - sector employees in the US decreased by 33,000 in June, the first negative growth since March 2023. Regarding the upcoming non - farm data, UBS expects only 100,000 new jobs, and Citigroup expects 85,000 new jobs. If the data is extremely weak, the probability of a Fed interest rate cut in July will increase significantly [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although short - term risk events have subsided, the US dollar is in a medium - term weakening trend, which boosts the gold price. The support around 760 is strong, and the long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. Consider making long - term investments [6]. Silver - **Market Condition**: Base metals are supported by future economic policy stimuli. The gold - silver ratio has returned to the normal range, and silver is greatly affected by base metals and gold price sentiment [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Silver is range - bound, and the support around 8700 is strong [6]. Copper - **Market Condition**: Overseas, the US dollar is weakening, and there are disruptions in Peruvian copper mines. Domestically, there is speculation about anti - involution supply - side reform 3.0. The copper market shows a combination of macro and micro factors [8][9]. - **Data Support**: The processing TC of copper concentrates has dropped to - 43.57 US dollars/ton. MMG and Hudbay Minerals' Peruvian mines are blocked, disrupting copper concentrate transportation. COMEX copper is continuously draining global copper inventories, and LME spot premiums have decreased month - on - month [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold previous long copper positions, and some can be liquidated at high prices. Be vigilant about the risk of a high - level decline in copper prices. In the long term, copper is bullish. The short - term focus range for SHFE copper is [79,000, 82,000], and for LME copper is [9,900, 11,000] US dollars/ton [9]. Zinc - **Market Condition**: Macro and sector sentiments are positive, zinc concentrate processing fees are recovering, domestic zinc inventories are slightly increasing, and it is the domestic consumption off - season with weakening demand [10][11]. - **Data Support**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Recently, there was a strike at a large zinc smelter in Peru. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee is 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee is 65 US dollars/dry ton. Domestic zinc inventories have slightly increased, and the galvanizing enterprise operating rate is 56.2%, lower than the same period in previous years [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is oscillating and may test the lower moving - average support. Pay attention to the 22,000 level. In the long run, short - selling opportunities at high prices should be grasped. The focus range for SHFE zinc is [22,000, 22,600], and for LME zinc is [2,700, 2,850] US dollars/ton [11][12]. Aluminum - **Market Condition**: The domestic policy is favorable, but the terminal is entering the off - season, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation downstream. The alumina market is relatively loose in the short term [13][14]. - **Data Support**: In June, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories were 468,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week. Domestic mainstream consumption - area aluminum - rod inventories were 147,500 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week. From January to May, China's cumulative import of bauxite was about 85.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. In June, the domestic alumina operating capacity increased by 3.14% month - on - month [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities during the rebound for SHFE aluminum, pay attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventories, and the main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [14]. Nickel - **Market Condition**: Overseas macro - environment has improved. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore has decreased. The domestic nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the stainless - steel industry also faces over - supply pressure [15][16]. - **Data Support**: In June, the domestic pure - nickel social inventory was about 39,300 tons, and it has increased again week - on - week. The total inventory of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan has increased to 1,000,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.18%, and the social inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks and exceeded 1 million tons [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities during the rebound for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range for nickel is [119,000 - 123,000] [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Condition**: There are strong policy expectations, but the fundamentals remain in an oversupply situation. The market has large differences in downstream production schedules [17][18]. - **Data Support**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium has reached 17,598 tons, and the weekly inventory is 136,837 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous period [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it will have high - level oscillations. Pay attention to the resistance at 65,000, and the focus range is [62,500 - 64,500] [2][18]. Lead - **Market Condition**: After the maintenance of primary lead smelting enterprises, production has resumed, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises have been repaired. Downstream battery consumption is not optimistic [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The lead price will have a short - term rebound, and the focus range is [16,800 - 17,500] [3]. Tin - **Market Condition**: The supply of Burmese tin mines has not resumed, and transportation is difficult during the rainy season. Tin consumption in the terminal field has entered the off - season [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The tin price will have a short - term rebound and then decline, and the focus range is [265,000 - 272,000] [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Condition**: Leading manufacturers have cut production, combined with speculation on macro - policy expectations. In the short term, the fundamentals have not significantly improved, and total inventory remains high [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The main contract is strongly trending, waiting for contradictions to accumulate, and the focus range is [8,000 - 8,380] [3].

法案核心条款引发广泛争议：一方面延续2017年减税政策，削减医疗补助及食品安全保障支出，为边境 管控行动追加预算，同时废除多项新能源补贴;另一方面要求将债务上限上调5万亿美元，迫使国会必须 在近期达成新协议以避免主权债务违约。参议院已于7月1日以微弱优势通过该法案，但众议院表决仍悬 而未决，任何条款修改都将触发参议院重新投票程序，这使特朗普设定的7月4日独立日立法目标几近泡 影。 民主党阵营则对法案展开全面抨击。众议院民主党议员吉姆·麦戈文在辩论中直斥："这不是政策，是赤 裸裸的惩罚!"无党派分析显示，法案可能导致约1000万低收入民众失去医疗保险，同时其减税条款被指 83%的收益将流向最富有的1%人群。民主党人认为，在联邦债务已达GDP 120%的危机时刻，这项法案 无异于"在着火的房子里浇汽油"。 这场风波源于共和党内部对特朗普经济蓝图的严重分歧。众议院共和党人虽在7月2日启动法案审议程 序，但投票进程因少数保守派议员反水而陷入僵局。这些财政鹰派议员与民主党人立场罕见重合，均对 法案内容提出强烈质疑。根据无党派机构国会预算办公室测算，这项集减税、削支、移民管控、能源政 策调整于一体的综合法案，将在未来十年 ...

金十数据7月3日讯，XTB研究主管Kathleen Brooks在一份报告中说，由于债务水平高企，英国政府债券 市场可能面临更大的波动性。一个主题正在出现：自2022年以来，我们看到英国国债收益率更频繁地飙 升，这是自疫情以来英国债券市场的一个特征。这种波动可能会持续下去，直到债务水平下降，公共部 门支出率恢复到疫情前的水平。 在债务水平下降之前，英国国债市场可能会持续波动 ...

沪铜日评20250703: 国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会年存量环比减少 | 变量名称 | 较昨日变动 | 近期定势 | 2025-07-02 | 2025-07-01 | 2025-06-24 | 收盘价 | 80540 | 80640 | 78640 | -100.00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成交量(手) | 101958 | 113449 | 63060 | -11.491.00 V | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 持仓量(手) | 223122 | 223983 | 150365 | -861.00 | | 库存(吨) | 22425 | 324. 00 | 25097 | 24773 | SMN 1#电解铜平均价 | 80208 | 80990 | 78415 | 785.00 | | | 沪铜基差 | 450 | -225 | -435 | 885.00 | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | 85 | 90 | 30 | -5.00 mm ----- ...

智通财经APP获悉，近期，房地产行业捷报频传。一方面，民营房企境外债融资成功破冰，行业融资环 境呈现边际改善态势。另一方面，出险房企的化债工作也纷纷传来好消息。 6月27日，旭辉控股集团（00884）宣布其境外债务重组计划获香港高等法院批准，计划生效日期已落 实。这一成果在房地产行业深度调整变革的当下显得尤为关键，它不仅为旭辉自身的重启发展奠定坚实 基础，更为整个行业的债务化解工作注入了一剂强心针。 旭辉境外债务重组的成功获批，让市场看到了民营房企在逆境中求生的可能，也为其他面临类似困境的 企业提供了宝贵的经验和信心。深入梳理旭辉的重组路径，可以发现五大核心要素构筑了其闯关成功的 基石。 优质资产增信，彰显履约诚意 管理层躬身入局，专业团队高效推进 自2022年11月启动境外债务重组之时，旭辉便迅速成立了由主要债权人组成的美元债小组与银团委员 会，这一行动有力地保障了沟通的顺畅，有效避免了双方相互掣肘的情况，为重组工作构建了坚实的协 作基础。 在过去的2年半中，旭辉内部成立了专业团队，专门负责重组事务。同时，大股东与管理层深度参与关 键决策与谈判，确保了内部执行的高效性以及对市场动态的快速响应。旭辉控股实控人 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that NATO's target of a 3.5% increase in core defense spending could lead to a potential increase in European government debt by $2 trillion by 2035 if implemented without offsetting measures [1] Group 1: Defense Spending Impact - The increase in defense spending is expected to be gradual, influenced by national security considerations, the scale of the defense industry, fiscal issues, electoral support, and industrial absorption capacity [1] - The anticipated growth in military expenditure will vary across countries based on their specific circumstances and priorities [1] Group 2: Sovereign Debt Implications - The short-term impact on the credit quality of European sovereign debt is expected to be limited, as the growth in defense spending is likely to be moderate and slow [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate cuts in the U.S. may not effectively address the issues of government debt and stagflation, as highlighted by Minsheng Securities' chief economist Tao Chuan and his team [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - President Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which has led to increased market expectations for rate cuts this year due to disappointing recent employment data [1] - The depreciation of the dollar is causing imported inflation, which complicates the implementation of interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Impact on Debt and Wealth - The high-interest environment in the past has resulted in the private sector holding an increasing amount of U.S. government debt, suggesting that lowering interest rates could negatively impact American wealth [1]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月03日 政府债务周度观察 三季度地方债计划发行 2.7 万亿 核心观点 固定收益周报 政府债净融资第 26 周（6/23-6/29）6714 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）2216 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 7.7 万亿，超出去年同期 4.3 万亿， 主要是置换隐债专项债错位和国债发行较快。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 26 周（6/23-6/29）5905 亿，第 27 周 （6/30-7/6）2574 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）广义赤字累计 5.9 万 亿，进度 50.1%。 国债第 26 周（6/23-6/29）净融资 1110 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）1999 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 3.4 万亿，进度 50.8%。 地方债净融资第 26 周（6/23-6/29）5604 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）216 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 4.4 万亿，超出去年同期 2.5 万亿。 新增一般债第 26 周（6/23-6/29）572 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7 ...

瑞银调查显示，35%的受访者认为，美国可能会要求盟友将较长期债务转换为超长期零息债券等其他工 具。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月03日 政府债务周度观察 三季度地方债计划发行 2.7 万亿 核心观点 固定收益周报 政府债净融资第 26 周（6/23-6/29）6714 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）2216 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 7.7 万亿，超出去年同期 4.3 万亿， 主要是置换隐债专项债错位和国债发行较快。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 26 周（6/23-6/29）5905 亿，第 27 周 （6/30-7/6）2574 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）广义赤字累计 5.9 万 亿，进度 50.1%。 国债第 26 周（6/23-6/29）净融资 1110 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）1999 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 3.4 万亿，进度 50.8%。 地方债净融资第 26 周（6/23-6/29）5604 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）216 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 4.4 万亿，超出去年同期 2.5 万亿。 新增一般债第 26 周（6/23-6/29）572 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7 ...