Market Overview - Major global stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 404.41 points (0.94%) to 43,386.84, while the S&P 500 increased by 48.86 points (0.80%) to 6,141.02 [1] - In contrast, the European Stoxx 50 declined by 7.98 points (-0.15%) to 5,244.03, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 7.52 points (-0.22%) to 3,448.45 [1] Trade and Economic Policies - U.S. trade partners, including Japan, India, and the EU, are hesitant to sign agreements due to uncertainty over potential tariffs on key exports like chips and pharmaceuticals [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary requested the removal of a "retaliatory tax" proposal from a tax bill, which could impose a 20% tax on foreign investors from countries deemed to impose unfair taxes on U.S. companies [2][5] Company Developments - Xiaomi announced that its Yu7 model received over 289,000 pre-orders within the first hour of availability, indicating strong consumer interest [3][4] - Nike's stock surged by 10% following the release of its quarterly earnings report, which showed earnings per share of $0.14, slightly above expectations [4] - Nike's CFO indicated that new tariffs could increase total costs by approximately $1 billion for the fiscal year 2026, prompting the company to adjust its supply chain and pricing strategies [5] Mergers and Acquisitions - CoreWeave is in talks to acquire Core Scientific to expand its cloud computing capabilities, with the deal expected to be finalized in the coming weeks [7][8] - Following the acquisition news, Core Scientific's stock price rose by 33%, reflecting investor optimism [9] Regulatory Changes - Apple modified its App Store policies in Europe to comply with the Digital Markets Act, aiming to avoid a potential €500 million fine [11][12] - The new policy introduces a complex fee structure for app developers, including a 5% commission on digital purchases made outside the App Store [12]

★美联储-3 鲍威尔：关税为一次性影响可能成为基本预期，但需要谨慎应对;在货币政策决策中不考虑联 邦债务问题：稳定币行业已逐步成熟。2柯林斯：当前是保持耐心和谨慎的时机。今年晚些时候可能降息， 但取决于关税影响。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 | Milli | > 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月26日 | | 黄金 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 随着伊以双方达成停火避险情绪消退,贵金属陷入调整。美国总统特朗普称将 ...

菲律宾总统经济顾问：已提交与美国关税谈判的建议谈判要点。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold and silver prices are likely to continue adjusting due to a decrease in geopolitical risk following the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, with market focus shifting towards upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve policy decisions [1][2] - Analysts from various institutions suggest that gold prices may challenge new highs, with CMX gold potentially reaching $3,500 per ounce, driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central bank policies [2][3] - The market is currently cautious ahead of key U.S. economic data releases, which could significantly influence gold prices in the short term, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][4] Group 2 - The analysis highlights that the demand for precious metals remains strong due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern issues, which are expected to support gold prices in the medium term [2][3] - BMO Capital Markets forecasts that gold prices will rise to $3,600 per ounce in the fourth quarter, driven by increasing global debt and central bank gold purchases, indicating a sustained bullish outlook for gold [3][4] - The current market sentiment reflects a balance between the potential for price adjustments and the underlying bullish factors that could drive gold prices higher in the future [1][2][3]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月26日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅回落，布伦特08合约跌0.31%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下降583.6万桶，但 成品油表需四周均值仍低于去年同期1.6%。三季度旺季全球石油累库幅度面临收窄，但OPEC+增产 压力之下宽松形势难有根本改观，伊以冲突降温后原油重回宏观与供需面主导，短期震荡偏弱运 行,关注美伊核谈进展及中东局势的反复风险。 【责金属】 随着伊以双方达成停火避险情绪消退,贵金属陷入调整。美国总统特朗普称将于下周与伊朗进行会 谈，也将与俄罗斯总统普京会谈讨论结束乌克兰战争事宜。如冲突不再出现反复，市场关注点将逐 渐转向关税谈判和美联储。鲍威尔连续两日讲话维持观望态度,认为利率的变化将取决于经济走 向。 (铜) 隔夜铜价震荡上涨，LME0-3月现货升水继续下调到100美元。鲍威尔对调降利率节奏持灵活着， 7 月降息概率升温。国内现铜升水缩窄，广东升水缩至10元。等待今日社库，倾向铜价区间上方阻力 有效,空头持有。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝震荡。周一铝锭社库增1.5万吨，消费前置和淡季负反馈初步显现。伊以达成停火，霍尔木 ...

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - The tariff negotiations are currently stalled, with little progress made since Trump's announcement to delay "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days [4] - The U.S. is in a deadlock with Japan over auto tariffs, and no breakthroughs were achieved during the G7 summit [4] - The market is closely watching how Trump will handle the impending expiration of the 90-day delay, with potential for either further delays or a return to "reciprocal tariffs" [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Trump has publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 2 to 3 percentage points, claiming it could save the U.S. over $800 billion annually [6] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated a cautious approach, acknowledging that tariffs have raised short-term inflation expectations, but suggested that a weak labor market could lead to earlier rate cuts [6] - Other Fed officials have also signaled support for a rate cut in July, with a consensus forming around the idea that inflation is no longer a primary concern [6] Group 3: Israel-Iran Conflict - The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated again shortly after a ceasefire, with Trump warning Israel against further attacks [9] - The conflict is closely tied to oil prices, and any escalation could lead to significant increases in oil prices, impacting U.S. inflation and the need for rate cuts [9] - Despite Trump's calls for increased shale oil production, U.S. shale producers have been reducing drilling activity due to various market pressures [9] Group 4: Overall Challenges - Trump faces intertwined challenges from tariffs, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the Israel-Iran conflict, which collectively represent significant hurdles [13] - The decisions made in response to these challenges will have direct implications for the U.S. economy and political landscape in the near future [13]

Core Viewpoint - The impending "reciprocal tariffs" set to take effect on July 9, if no trade agreement is reached between the U.S. and other countries, is causing a significant increase in the U.S. trade deficit, with potential record levels anticipated for the first five months of the year [1][2]. Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit has surged, reaching $138.3 billion in March and dropping to $61.6 billion in April, with projections indicating that the total deficit for the first five months of the year could exceed $643 billion, surpassing previous records during the pandemic [2][3]. - Countries like Vietnam and Thailand have reported record exports to the U.S., with both countries seeing a 35% year-on-year increase in exports [2]. - The trade dynamics have shifted, with Asian suppliers rushing to ship goods to the U.S. ahead of the tariff deadline, contrasting with historical patterns where shipments peak before the holiday season [2]. Negotiation Progress - Ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and major trading partners are stagnating, with India rejecting U.S. requests for lower tariffs on agricultural products due to concerns over domestic farmers and genetically modified foods [4]. - Japan and South Korea are also engaged in negotiations with the U.S., focusing on tariffs affecting key industries such as automobiles and steel [4][5]. - The EU is considering retaliatory measures if negotiations with the U.S. do not yield satisfactory results, emphasizing the importance of sovereignty in decision-making [4][5]. Economic Recession Risks - The current tariff situation poses a significant threat to the U.S. economy, with analysts predicting a 60% chance of recession this year, which could lead to a substantial decline in the S&P 500 index [6][7]. - Rising consumer delinquency rates and a decrease in housing starts indicate potential economic slowdown, with credit card delinquency reaching 3.05%, the highest since 2011 [6][7]. - The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for member economies from 3.3% to 2.6% due to trade tensions, highlighting the broader economic impact of the ongoing trade disputes [7].

| Millio | > 國授期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月25日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 随着伊以双方达成停火避险情绪消退，贵金属陷入调整。如冲突不再出现反复，市场关注点将逐渐转向关税 谈判和美联储。昨晚鲍威尔讲话维持观望态度,认为利率的变化将取决于经济走向,目前未看到劳动力市场 存在疲惫效迹象，可以暂时保持等待。今晚鲍威尔将继续在参议院委员会就半年度货币政策报告作证词陈述。 ★中东局势-①特朗普认为伊以双方都违反了停火协议,但又表示伊以违反协议都不会面临后果。特朗普还 敌口称不希望伊朗政权更送。②自6月13日以色列袭击伊朗以来的油价涨幅已被完全抹平。③美媒援引美国 初步的情报评估报道,其对伊朗的打击并没有摧毁核设施,白宫否认该报道。④美以领 ...

Core Viewpoint - Switzerland anticipates that U.S. tariffs will remain at 10% after the 90-day grace period ends on July 9, provided that negotiations continue between Switzerland and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Tariff Expectations - Swiss officials indicate that there is a possibility that the U.S. may reintroduce reciprocal tariffs on the same day [1] - The Swiss government has noted that the U.S. has "repeatedly acknowledged Switzerland's good faith actions" [1] Group 2: Negotiation Goals - Switzerland aims to reach an agreement as soon as possible, with the Swiss Economic Minister Guy Parmelin expressing hope for a deal before early July [1] - A compromise proposal has been outlined by the Swiss government, which includes reducing tariffs on agricultural products that Switzerland does not produce in large quantities, such as citrus fruits, nuts, and shellfish [1] - The proposal also suggests simplifying the approval process for U.S. medical devices [1] Group 3: Historical Context - According to an initial statement from Trump on April 2, Switzerland could face tariffs as high as 31% [1]

Group 1: Energy and Metals - The overnight international oil price dropped, with Brent's August contract falling 4.01%. Global oil inventories increased in Q1 and Q2, and the supply-demand imbalance persists. Brent is expected to return to the $57 - $70 per barrel range, and investors can consider shorting at the upper boundary [2]. - Precious metals declined as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Market focus may shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed [3]. - LME copper retraced gains, with the LME 0 - 3 month premium dropping to $150. Short positions should be held [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated overnight. Social inventories increased, and there are short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [5]. - Alumina spot trading was scarce, and the futures are in a weak oscillation. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures had limited fluctuations. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy if the spread between AL2511 and AD2511 widens [7]. - Shanghai zinc's upward movement was driven by short - covering, but downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to remain bearish on rebounds [8]. - Shanghai lead is currently in a state of wait - and - see. A long position can be considered if it breaks through 17,000 [9]. - Shanghai nickel is in a bearish trend, and short positions should be held [10]. - Tin prices oscillated downward. Hold a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts [11]. - Lithium carbonate futures rebounded, but the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded with a reduction in positions. The market is expected to remain weakly oscillating [13]. - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, but the upward drive is limited. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [14]. - Steel prices continued to decline at night. Demand expectations are pessimistic, and the market is under pressure [15]. - Iron ore prices weakened overnight. Supply is expected to increase, and the market will oscillate in the short term [16]. - Coke prices oscillated. The fourth round of price cuts was fully implemented, and the market will oscillate narrowly [17]. - Coking coal prices oscillated weakly. Production decreased due to safety inspections, and the market will oscillate narrowly and weakly [18]. - Manganese silicon prices' volatility increased. The market is expected to rise in the short term [19]. - Silicon iron prices oscillated. The market is expected to rise in the short term [20]. Group 2: Shipping and Chemicals - The opening of Maersk's W28 voyage cabins at lower prices strengthened the market's pessimistic expectation of falling freight rates. The market lacks positive factors in the short term [21]. - Fuel oil futures fell following the decline in crude oil prices. The cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to rebound [22]. - The potential increase in fuel oil deduction ratio for asphalt refineries may be negative for the asphalt market. Terminal demand is expected to improve [23]. - Liquefied petroleum gas prices are under downward pressure due to increased supply after the easing of geopolitical risks [24]. - Urea demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and exports may be the key to the subsequent market [25]. - Methanol prices dropped due to the easing of the Israel - Iran situation. The market is mainly affected by the macro - situation [26]. - Styrene prices are expected to continue to decline as the ceasefire agreement led to a drop in oil prices. Supply pressure is increasing [27]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand are relatively stable [28]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda prices are weak, and the supply pressure is high [29]. - PX and PTA prices oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand pattern may become looser in the medium term [30]. - Ethylene glycol prices continued to decline. It will oscillate at the bottom in the medium term [31]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed the decline of raw materials. The situation of short - fiber is relatively better [32]. - Glass prices weakened slightly at night. High inventory and weak demand persist [33]. - Rubber supply is increasing, and demand is recovering. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [34]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be bearish in the long term due to high supply pressure [35]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to weather changes from June to August [36]. - Vegetable oil prices fell following the decline in oil prices. Long - term long positions can be considered on dips [37]. - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended in the short term [38]. - Domestic soybean prices oscillated. Pay attention to the US soybean new - crop area report at the end of June [39]. - Corn prices continued to decline. The market may oscillate in the short term [40]. - Pig futures prices fluctuated. There is large pressure on future pig supplies [41]. - Egg futures prices continued to fall. Egg production capacity is still being released [42]. - Cotton prices are recommended to be bought on dips. Pay attention to the US cotton planting area report at the end of June [43]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate. US sugar is still in a downward trend [44]. - Apple prices are recommended to be shorted. The new - season production is expected to be bearish [45]. - Wood prices oscillated. Supply is tight, but demand is in the off - season [46]. - Pulp prices are recommended to be held in a wait - and - see attitude. Supply is relatively loose [47]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rebounded strongly, and index futures rose. After the cease - fire, the market may refocus on economic and trade negotiations. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48]. - Treasury bond futures mostly fell. The bond market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [49].