| 112 | > 国技期货 | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月12日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | なな☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 文文☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价大涨，SC07合约日内上涨3.01%。中美就落实两国元首通话共识及日内瓦会谈共识达成框架，目前来看 本轮磋商结果聚焦在双方取消5月以来的部分出口管制,而将于8月中旬豁免到期的24%对等关税仍有待谈判。特朗普 表示对达成伊核协议的信心减弱。凌晨美国方面通知美国在中东人员部分撤离,中东地缘风险急剧升温。原油对极 端供应冲击情景迅速定价。上周EIA原油库存超预期下降364. 4万桶，亦对原油偏强走势构成支撑。原油短期 ...

隔夜美国5月CPI年率录得2.4%,核心CPI录得2.8%，同比环比均低于预期，特朗普再次呼吁降息,美元回 落,金价小幅上涨。但中美会谈达成共识框架消息令市场风险偏好继续向好限制金价涨幅。各方关税谈判将 继续主导市场,俄乌以及中东等地缘局势持续紧张,金价震荡中维持回调买入思路,白银破位后打开上方空 间。今晚关注美国PPI和周度初请失业金人数。 ★美国5月CPI环比上涨0.1%,不及预期的0.2%,4月增幅为0.2%;CPI同比上涨2.4%,符合预期,4月为 2.3%; 扣除波动较大的食品和能源核心CPI环比0.1%，不及预期的0.2%,较4月的0.2%有所放缓；同比2.8%, 不及预期的2.9%，4月为2.8%，保持在2021年3月以来的最低水平。 ★中东局势—1特朗普对达成伊核协议信心减弱。②伊朗防长:如果核谈判失败并与美国发生冲突,伊朗将 打击该地区的美军基地。③美方授权美军家属可自愿撤离中东,缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规模。④据悉伊美 周末举行第六轮核谈判举行的可能性越来越小。 ★关税—()欧盟希望贸易谈判时间延长至特朗普设定暂缓期限之后。②贝森特:只要在谈判中表现出"城 意",特朗普政府愿意将目前的90天 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints - The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index fluctuates in the short - term due to news. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation has reached a framework consensus, but there is no incremental information. The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. The increase in US inflation is less than expected, supporting the Fed to cut interest rates earlier, and the Middle East geopolitical tensions drive up the price of gold. The container shipping index is in a shock consolidation. The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. The iron ore is in a range - bound oscillation. The coking coal and coke market expectations are improving. The prices of various energy - chemical and agricultural products show different trends [2] Summary by Variety Financial - **Stock Index**: The index has stable support below and pressure to break through above. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. It is recommended to sell the put options of the CSI 1000 Index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect the premium [2] - **Treasury Bond**: The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. In the short - term, it is advisable to allocate long positions on dips. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract. If there is no sudden change in the trade negotiation this week, Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate strongly. Currently, 1.6% is the downward resistance level of the 10 - year bond interest rate [2] - **Precious Metal**: Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. Do the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options to earn time value. Consider going long on the main contract on dips. Be cautious about the flow of speculative funds in silver and the "killing decline" caused by long - position profit - taking [2] Black - **Steel**: The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline range of apparent demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on finished products and short on raw materials [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change of terminal demand [2] - **Coking Coal**: The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, the coal mine start - up has declined from a high level, and the spot has signs of stabilizing. It is recommended to go long on JM2509 on dips [2] - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented. The futures price has a rebound expectation. It is recommended to go long on J2509 on dips [2] - **Silicon Iron**: It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5300 - 5400 [2] - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure still exists. It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5700 - 5800 [2] Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The domestic spot trading has weakened, and the US copper restocking continues. The main contract reference range is 77000 - 80000 [2] - **Zinc**: The mine - end resumption of production provides incremental supply, and the zinc price oscillates weakly [2] - **Nickel**: The afternoon sentiment improved, and the price rose slightly. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2] - **Stainless Steel**: After the price limit was partially restored, the price turned red, but the fundamental contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The main contract reference range is 12400 - 13000 [2] - **Tin**: Due to the slow recovery of supply and the warming of macro - sentiment, the tin price continues to rise. It is recommended to adopt a short - term long - bias strategy [2] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks are rising. The short - term oil price is likely to continue the strong - bias oscillation trend. Pay attention to the opportunity of monthly spread expansion [2] - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand has not improved. The downward pressure on the price remains. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for the rebound opportunity. The support level of the main contract is adjusted to 1620 - 1640. Consider the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [2] - **PX**: The cost side is strong, and the supply - demand situation is good. It has support at 6400 - 6500 in the short - term. Do short - term long operations; mainly do short - term reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1; shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2] - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is gradually weakening, but the cost side is strong. It is in a stalemate oscillation. Operate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term; mainly do reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 when it is high [2] - **Short - fiber**: Under the expectation of factory production cuts, the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered, but the driving force is still limited. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; expand the processing fee on the PF disk when it is low [2] - **Bottle Chip**: In the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production cuts for bottle chips, and the processing fee is bottom - seeking. It follows the cost fluctuation. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA. The processing fee on the main PF disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand it at the lower edge of the range [2] - **Ethanol**: The short - term demand is weak, but the supply - demand structure of MEG is still good. It is expected to oscillate in the range. Oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400 for EG09 in the short - term; pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1 on dips [2] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The short - term raw materials and benzene ethylene destocking support the price. Pay attention to the medium - term contradiction. Wait and see in the short - term, and consider high - short operations in the medium - term when there is a raw material resonance opportunity [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand expectation is not good, the spot price has回调, and the near - month support is insufficient. Exit the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage. Wait and see for unilateral operations [2] - **PVC**: The short - term contradiction has not further intensified, and the macro - disturbance has increased. The price is in a low - level consolidation. Wait and see in the short - term, and maintain a high - short strategy for medium - and long - term participation [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR follows the commodity price fluctuation. Hold the short position of BR2507 [2] - **LLDPE**: The spot price and basis change little, and the trading volume is moderate [2] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and it oscillates weakly. Oscillate weakly and go short on rallies [2] - **Methanol**: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it oscillates [2] Agricultural - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: During the Sino - US trade negotiation, the price runs strongly [2] - **Pig**: The demand is weak due to the hot weather, but the rising feed price boosts the price. Pay attention to the performance around 13500 [2] - **Corn**: The upward momentum weakens, and it oscillates at a high level. Oscillate around 2380 in the short - term [2] - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the concern about production, it falls inertia - ally. It may test the support at 7800 in the short - term [2] - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. Do short - selling on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. Do short - selling on rebounds [2] - **Egg**: There is a risk that the spot price may weaken again. Do short - selling on the rebound of the 07 contract and hold the short position [2] - **Apple**: The price in the sales area is stable, and the transaction is priced according to quality. The main contract runs around 7500 [2] - **Jujube**: The market price runs weakly and stably. It runs around 8900 in the short - term [2] - **Peanut**: The market price oscillates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2] - **Soda Ash**: The over - supply logic continues. Maintain the high - short strategy on rebounds. Hold the high - level short position and do the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: Affected by the cold - repair news, the price fluctuates repeatedly. Wait and see in the short - term [2] - **Rubber**: The driving force is limited, and the rubber price oscillates. Adopt a high - short strategy when it rebounds above 14000 [2] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rises, and the futures - spot price gradually converges. The polysilicon futures price stabilizes and rebounds. Hold the short position cautiously or close the position first [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the news, the price rises, but the fundamental logic remains unchanged. Observe the performance around 62,000 first [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to remain in high-level oscillations. Gold has high strategic allocation value in the long term, and silver's speculative sentiment and financial attributes have been ignited. Copper is advised to take profit on long positions and look for selling hedging opportunities at high levels, with a long - term optimistic outlook. Zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel are expected to face pressure on rebounds, and zinc and nickel are recommended for short - selling opportunities at high levels. For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to short at high levels as the fundamental situation is hard to improve [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: Gold is in a high - level oscillation due to factors such as low US inflation, geopolitical escalation, and increased expectations of US interest rate cuts this year. Silver has seen a return of the gold - silver ratio, and its price has been supported by speculative sentiment and capital flow [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Tariff negotiations between China and the US have reached a framework agreement. The Chinese central bank continues to buy gold, and there are uncertainties in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. US inflation is low, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts. In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the global trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, focus on the 765 support level and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, short - term long positions can be continued, but control positions due to its high elasticity [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper opened lower overnight and oscillated downward [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased in May but is expected to decline in June. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and there is a risk of a soft squeeze. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With US inflation lower than expected, long positions in copper should take profit. Speculators should temporarily wait and see, and industrial players should look for selling hedging opportunities at high levels. In the long term, copper is still optimistic. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79500], and for LME copper is [9600, 9800] USD/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Zinc rose overnight but then fell back, oscillating in a narrow range around the integer level [8]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Domestic zinc ore processing fees increased in June. Refined zinc production is expected to increase in June. Downstream demand is weakening, and the operating rate of zinc - related enterprises has declined [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, wait and see. In the long term, take short - selling opportunities at high levels. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [21800, 22400], and for LME zinc is [2600, 2700] USD/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices rebounded in the short term, while alumina prices were under pressure [10]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - trade environment has eased. The cost of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry decreased in May. Aluminum ingot inventories decreased, while aluminum rod inventories increased. The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises declined, and the terminal is entering the off - season. Overseas bauxite supply is stable, and domestic alumina production capacity has increased, with a slight inventory build - up [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell on short - term rebounds in Shanghai aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices continued to decline, and stainless steel prices were under pressure [12]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - environment has eased. The shipment of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore has decreased. Domestic refined nickel production decreased slightly, but inventories are still high. Stainless steel consumption has entered the seasonal off - season, and inventory pressure has reappeared [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focusing on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 125000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2507 continued to reduce positions and rebound, rising more than 1% [13]. - **Industry Logic**: Rumors of Tianqi taking delivery from the futures market have driven up prices, but the fundamentals have not changed much. Supply pressure remains high, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. The inventory of new energy vehicles has reached a three - year high, and only the energy storage sector provides some support. The production of lithium carbonate has recovered rapidly, and the expectation of inventory build - up is increasing [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short at high levels in the range of [60500 - 62500] [14].

Domestic News - The China Automobile Association reported that from January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million units, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% of total sales [3] International News - Tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with Trump expressing reduced confidence in reaching an Iran nuclear deal, and Iran's defense minister stating that if negotiations fail, Iran will target U.S. military bases in the region [2] - International crude oil prices surged by 5%, and gold prices increased by over $20 amid the rising tensions [2] - The U.S. Customs total tax revenue reached a record $23 billion in May, with a year-on-year increase of nearly four times [2]

Key Points - The article emphasizes a cautious approach in the short term, focusing on defensive sectors such as banks due to ongoing tariff negotiations and rising economic downward pressure [2][4] - It suggests that while small-cap growth stocks are currently favored, the overall market volatility is increasing, indicating potential risks if a turning point occurs [2][4] - The report highlights a decrease in the dispersion of excess returns among industry indices, with a slight decline in the proportion of rising constituent stocks and an increase in industry rotation speed [6][7] Market Overview - The market structure shows a stable concentration in the top 100 stocks, while the transaction share of the top five industries has slightly decreased [6][7] - Market activity has decreased, with a notable drop in the turnover rate of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index, reaching its lowest level in nearly a year [6][7] Commodity Market Insights - In the commodity market, the strength of trends in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors has significantly increased, while energy and black metal sectors continue their trend [18][20] - The basis differential momentum for black and precious metals has rapidly increased, whereas it has decreased for energy and non-ferrous sectors [18][20] Options Market Analysis - The implied volatility levels for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 show no significant trend, with the latter at historically low levels [23] - The skewness of the CSI 1000 put options has decreased, indicating a reduction in market concerns regarding small-cap stocks [23] Convertible Bond Market Overview - The convertible bond market remains stable in terms of valuation, with the premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan and the pure debt premium rate showing steady trends [26] - The market turnover has improved, surpassing historical median levels, while credit spreads remain consistent with previous values [26]

马来西亚贸易部长将于6月18日前往华盛顿进行美国关税谈判。 ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 6 月 10 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4810 元/吨（-6），常州市场价 4700 元 /吨（0），主力基差-110 元/吨(+6），广州市场价 4800 元/吨（+10）， 杭州市场价 4710 元/吨（0），西北电石价格 2350 元/吨（+100）。基本 面，长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证 等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12%左右）；供应端三季度有不少新 投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，供应压力较大；需求不足、 产能过剩，供需宽松格局。最近库存去化尚可，略低于去年同期，季节 性去库过程中，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。宏观面，6 月 9 日中美会 面和谈，有助于缓解市场对贸易紧张格局的担忧，继续关注进一步的演 化；国内逆周期调节的政策仍相对审慎。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内 刺激政策力度。总的来看，弱成本、弱需求、高产量、高库存持续压制， 绝对价格低位。PVC 估值偏低，库存中性，驱动偏弱，盘面预计偏弱震 荡，暂关注 4850 一线压力。重点关注：1、海内外宏观数据、政策及预 期，2、出口情况，3、库存和上游开 ...

Group 1 - Current US-China trade relations show significant signs of easing, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold, which is currently undergoing a phase of adjustment, although gold's safe-haven attributes will limit its downside potential [1] - Recent data indicates that the negative impact of tariff policies on the US economy is becoming evident, with the manufacturing PMI index remaining weak and the services PMI index experiencing its first contraction in a year [1][2] - The US manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 48.5, the lowest since November of the previous year, with new orders index at 47.6, highlighting the impact of tariff increases on demand [1] Group 2 - The ISM services PMI for May fell to 49.9, significantly below expectations, with the new orders index dropping to 46.4, marking the largest decline since June 2024 [2] - The US added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, reflecting tightening labor supply rather than strong demand [3] Group 3 - China's foreign exchange reserves rose to nearly $3.3 trillion in May, with gold reserves increasing slightly to 73.83 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation [4] - Since November 2022, China's central bank has cumulatively added 10.16 million ounces of gold, although the pace of accumulation has slowed in recent months [4] - Global gold demand, including over-the-counter investments, saw a slight year-on-year increase of 1% in Q1 2025, with central banks remaining significant buyers despite a slight slowdown [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States have not reached a consensus, despite Japan's efforts to enhance its negotiating position. The prospects for an agreement during the upcoming G7 summit appear uncertain [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation Status - Japan's trade representative has visited the U.S. for three consecutive weeks, yet no substantial progress has been made in the fifth round of ministerial talks [1]. - Japan's government has been adjusting its negotiation strategy, aiming for the complete removal of tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, but the U.S. seems unwilling to accept these demands [3]. - The Japanese government had hoped to finalize an agreement during the G7 summit in mid-June, but significant differences remain between the two parties [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff measures have severely impacted Japan's automobile and steel industries, contributing to economic pressures as domestic rice prices remain unstable [2]. - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, with expectations of further economic decline in the second quarter due to the tariff policies [5]. - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections may hinge on the government's ability to achieve favorable results in the U.S. tariff negotiations, influencing the political landscape [2][5]. Group 3: Strategic Proposals - Japan is proposing to enhance economic security cooperation with the U.S. in sectors such as liquefied natural gas, semiconductors, and shipbuilding, aiming to alleviate U.S. pressures in these areas [3]. - Specific proposals include participation in U.S. LNG development projects and significant purchases of U.S. semiconductor products, along with a joint shipbuilding initiative [3]. Group 4: Broader Context - There are concerns within Japan's economic circles that the country is no longer a priority for the U.S., especially in light of the recent U.S.-China trade dynamics [4]. - The Japanese government’s strategy of leveraging economic security has not garnered the expected attention from the U.S., leaving negotiations in a stalemate [5].