Group 1 - In May, the national futures market saw a decline in both trading volume and trading value, with a total trading volume of 679 million contracts and a trading value of 54.73 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 4.51% and 1.55% respectively [1] - From January to May, the cumulative trading volume reached 3.337 billion contracts and the cumulative trading value was 286.93 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 15.61% and 21.33% [1] - The trading performance varied across exchanges, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange reporting a trading volume of 197 million contracts and a trading value of 21.13 trillion yuan in May, reflecting a volume decrease of 1.59% but a value increase of 2.18% year-on-year [1][2] Group 2 - The top three futures by trading value included gold, silver, and alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange featured caustic soda, rapeseed oil, and PTA futures [2] - The trading volume leaders were rebar, alumina, and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange leading in glass, PTA, and soda ash futures [2] - The decline in trading activity in May was attributed to reduced volatility in major commodities and weaker demand, particularly in energy, chemicals, and construction materials [2][3] Group 3 - May is traditionally a low season for industrial and some agricultural products, leading to a decrease in hedging activities as enterprises adopted low inventory strategies [3] - Despite the drop in trading scale, the total open interest in the futures market increased by 16.62% at the end of May, with all exchanges except the China Financial Futures Exchange reporting growth [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's total open interest reached 11.26 million contracts, up 14.99% from the previous month [3] Group 4 - Major commodity prices are currently at relatively low levels, encouraging enterprises to engage more in futures hedging and related activities, which has led to an increase in open interest [4] - Improved market sentiment due to the release of macroeconomic policies and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. has attracted more capital into the futures market [4] - The expectation of a rebound in commodity prices and a stable domestic stock market is likely to drive an increase in trading volume in June [4][5]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 109.045 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 47080 | -862↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 106.185 | 0.07% TF主力成交量 | 38116 | -9837↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.456 | 0.02% TS主力成交量 | 23987 | -1066↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 120.440 | 0.23% TL主力成交量 | 55029 | -7724↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2509-2506价差 | 0.72 | +0.04↑ T06-TL06价差 | -10.89 | -0.20↓ | | | T2509-2506价差 | 0.22 | +0.02↑ TF06-T06价差 | -2.95 | -0.06↓ | | | TF2509-2506价差 | 0.31 | +0.08↑ TS06-T06价差 | -6.49 | -0.03↓ | | | TS25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures**: Intraday view is slightly weak with mid - term view of range - bound movement. The CSI 300 index is expected to operate within [3820, 3960]. Suggest to exit long positions in IF2506 and hold short positions in MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Intraday view is narrow - range fluctuation for TS2509 within [102.30, 102.50], with mid - term view being bullish [2]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Steel prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and under pressure overall in the mid - term. Suggest to continue selling call options on rebar RB2510 with strike prices between 3300 - 3450 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Core Logic**: Sino - US dialogue progresses, which injects stability into bilateral relations but also realizes bullish expectations. Domestic policies to stabilize and activate the capital market are introduced, which is beneficial for the A - share market. Market style switches frequently, lacking a continuous upward mainline. In the short - term, the market may remain volatile, and attention should be paid to structural allocation opportunities [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Core Logic**: The Sino - US leaders' call eases market concerns, and the ongoing Sino - US economic and trade consultations reduce bond market pressure. The central bank conducts large - scale net withdrawals, but the inter - bank market remains loose. The May price level is still poor, strengthening the expectation of monetary easing [4]. Commodity Futures and Options Black and Building Materials Sector - **Core Logic**: The overall inventory pressure of steel raw materials is large, and the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs are expected to be under pressure in the mid - term. The downstream consumption of steel is still poor, with plate exports not fully recovered and construction demand weakening. Under the current supply - demand pressure, there is insufficient upward drive for steel prices [5][6][8].

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.03%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.04%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.17%。 国债期货早盘收盘 ...

| | | | | 2025年6月10日10年期国债期货主力合约2509持仓数据- | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 壇減 | | 会员 持买单 | 壇減 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 14,922 | -7,979 | 中信期货 | 48,573 | მ32 | 东证期货 | 29,522 | 314 | | 2 | 国泰君安 | 13,993 | -985 | 东证期货 | 29,356 | -627 | 中信期货 | 19,867 | 173 | | 3 | 东证期货 | 10,231 | -6,216 | 国泰君安 | 19,456 | 833 | 银河期货 | 16,813 | 70 | | 4 | 海通期货 | 4,531 | -382 | を素期货 | 9,314 | -71 | 广发期货 | 14,763 | -209 | | 5 | 花拳期货 | 4,179 | -2,019 | 招商期货 | 5,7 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trading activity and positions in the 30-year government bond futures market as of June 10, 2025, indicating a slight increase in the main contract price and a net short position among the top 20 participants [1][2][3]. - The main contract for the 30-year government bond futures closed at 2509, with a change of +0.07%, and a total trading volume of 66,800 contracts, which is a decrease of 12,800 contracts from the previous day [1][3]. - The top 20 participants in the futures market show a total long position of 100,100 contracts, an increase of 2,683 contracts, while the total short position is 107,700 contracts, an increase of 2,219 contracts [1][4]. Group 2 - The top three long positions are held by CITIC Futures with a total position of 25,155 contracts, Guotai Junan with 15,118 contracts, and Dongzheng Futures with 10,885 contracts [1][4]. - The top three short positions are held by Dongzheng Futures with 15,005 contracts, CITIC Futures with 12,044 contracts, and Galaxy Futures with 11,662 contracts [1][4]. - The article provides detailed changes in positions for both long and short participants, indicating significant movements among various futures companies [1][3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The central bank net withdrew 67.17 billion yuan last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2509 contract is near the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. - In May, China's imports and exports continued to grow. After the China - US economic and trade high - level talks, the growth rate accelerated significantly. Despite having two fewer working days year - on - year, imports and exports and exports increased by 2.7% and 6.3% year - on - year respectively. The total value of China - US imports and exports was 285.51 billion yuan, with a month - on - month decrease of 12.67%, and the decline was 0.58 percentage points narrower than in April. Citigroup postponed its forecast of the US interest rate cut from July to September and expects three interest rate cuts of 75 basis points this year, revised from the previous forecast of 100 basis points [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: In May, China's imports and exports continued to grow, and the growth rate accelerated after the China - US economic and trade high - level talks. Citigroup postponed the forecast of the US interest rate cut from July to September and revised the expected interest rate cut amount [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The central bank net withdrew funds. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures Quotes - **Price Trends**: Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The weekly price increases of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 were 0.05%, 0.11%, 0.18%, and 0.31% respectively [6]. 4. Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long - term interest rates decreased, and the yield spread widened [9]. 5. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [12]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis narrowed [13][14]. 7. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than on June 3, and medium - to - long - term yields decreased [19].

Core Viewpoint - The closing of government bond futures shows a positive trend, with the 30-year main contract increasing by 0.35% and the 10-year main contract rising by 0.09%, while the 5-year and 2-year main contracts remained relatively stable [1] Group 1 - The 30-year main contract experienced a rise of 0.35% [1] - The 10-year main contract saw an increase of 0.09% [1] - The 5-year and 2-year main contracts remained stable [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年6月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 行情回顾 30年期、10年期、5年期与2年期主力合约行情要素表 | 期货合约 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | CTD券 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2509 | 108.925 | +0.17% | 8.87万 | 293116 | 4332 | 240013.IB | | TF2509 | 106.140 | +0.08% | 7.90万 | 240303 | 2851 | 240001.IB | | TS2509 | 102.452 | +0.02% | 5.55万 | 188500 | -14 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Treasury bond futures shows a weak and volatile pattern, with most yields rising, reflecting the adjustment sentiment after the market's positive factors are exhausted. The short - term interest bonds declined briefly due to the central bank's continuous net injection and loose liquidity before the end of the month. However, concerns about the weakening of allocation demand increased, and long - term yields stopped falling and rebounded. The market's optimistic sentiment was boosted by the US International Trade Court's "halt" of multiple tariff measures by the Trump administration, which increased global risk appetite and suppressed the demand for hedging, causing the yields of interest - rate bonds to rise from mid - week to the weekend, and Treasury bond futures to decline under pressure. Subsequently, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals approved the temporary resumption of the halted tariff policies, leading to a collective rise in Treasury bonds and Treasury bond futures. Overall, short - term wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and subsequent attention should be paid to the marginal changes in economic data and policy signals [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.10% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a - 0.40% month - on - month change and a - 2.70% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 424.00 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.25%); M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.00% (+14.29%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+1.02%) [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.74, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 (-0.08%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1806, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.013 (-0.18%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.53, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 (-0.58%); DR007 was 1.55, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (-0.26%); R007 was 1.76, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 (-10.82%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.66, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 (-1.48%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (-1.48%) [9]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On 2025 - 06 - 05, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.43 yuan, 106.03 yuan, 108.72 yuan, and 119.31 yuan respectively. The fluctuations of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.04%, 0.02%, - 0.01%, and - 0.16% respectively [2]. - **Net Basis Spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.107 yuan, - 0.031 yuan, - 0.033 yuan, and 0.134 yuan respectively [2]. III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - **Central Bank Operations**: On 2025 - 06 - 05, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 126.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5% [2]. - **Money Market Repurchase Rates**: The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.408%, 1.534%, 1.591%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - The report provides various spread data in figures, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures, etc., but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [35]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the TS main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [43]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures about the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the TF main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers figures on the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the T main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [63]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures including the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the TL main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [72]. 4. Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatile prices of Treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis spread [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].