Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of treasury bond futures is to fluctuate within a range. After the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient, but due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, so is the downward space of treasury bond futures. Overall, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, mainly in a consolidation phase. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, it is mainly in a short - term consolidation phase. [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, and the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. In the short term, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited, mainly in a consolidation phase. Follow - up attention should be paid to external factors such as tariffs and the Fed, as well as domestic macro - economic indicators. [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Treasury bond futures mostly rose, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.24%, and yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds rebounded. The overall capital environment remained warm, and the follow - up situation of this month's Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) roll - over should be noted. The liquidity remained stable after the reserve requirement ratio cut rather than becoming more relaxed. The futures bonds are expected to remain volatile in the future [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Periodic Bond Market Review - **Fundamentals**: Treasury bond futures mostly rose, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.24%, and yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds rebounded. The overall capital environment remained warm, and the follow - up situation of this month's MLF roll - over should be noted [3] - **Funding**: On May 15, the People's Bank of China conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate. That day, 1586 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1250 billion yuan of MLF matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2191 billion yuan on a full - caliber basis [3] - **Basis**: The basis of TS main contract is - 0.0297, with the spot discounting the futures, indicating a bearish signal. The basis of TF main contract is 0.0471, with the spot premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal. The basis of T main contract is 0.1410, with the spot premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal. The basis of TL main contract is 0.3601, with the spot premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal [3] - **Inventory**: The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1359.4 billion yuan, 1493.5 billion yuan, and 2356.6 billion yuan respectively, showing a neutral situation [4] - **Market**: The TS, TF, and T main contracts are all running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Main Positions**: The TS main contract has a net long position, and the long position is increasing. The TF main contract has a net long position, and the long position is increasing. The T main contract has a net long position, and the long position is decreasing [5] - **Expectation**: The April PMI fell into the contraction range. The LPR has remained unchanged for 6 consecutive months. The central bank adjusted the MLF operation mode, and its policy attribute has completely faded. The central bank mentioned again the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. After the tariff war suspension shock was quickly released and the reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were implemented, the capital supply remained loose, and the continuous adjustment momentum of the bond market was still limited. The futures bonds are expected to remain volatile [5] 2. Market Review - The table shows the market elements of the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts, including the current price, increase or decrease, trading volume, open interest, daily position increase, and CTD bonds [7][8] 3. Spot Bond Analysis - There are data on DR interest rates and inter - bank treasury bond yields and treasury bond term spreads, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [9][13] 4. Basis Analysis - There are data on the basis of CTD bonds of T2506, TF2506, and TS2506 contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [15][17][18]

Group 1 - The article discusses the costs associated with doing business and investing, emphasizing that every transaction has an acceptable maximum loss rather than just the principal investment [1] - The central bank conducted a 645 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a total net withdrawal of 2,191 billion yuan due to maturing reverse repos and MLF [1][2] - The interbank funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.41% and DR007 around 1.52% throughout the day [1] Group 2 - The overnight risk assets saw a slight increase, while the bond market remained stable with the 10-year government bond yield hovering around 1.67% [3] - The central bank has been net withdrawing funds for three consecutive days, and the recent reserve requirement ratio cut has led to a weak performance in the stock market [3] - The article notes that the recent performance of the 2-year treasury futures has been weak, attributed to market uncertainty regarding the sustainability of monetary easing [4]

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约持平，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.03%，10年期国债期货（T） 主力合约涨0.02%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.24%。 国债期货午盘收盘 ...

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.01%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.13%。 国债期货早盘开盘 ...

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.03%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.03%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.13%。 国债期货午盘收盘 ...

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.04%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.02%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约跌0.09%。 国债期货早盘收盘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 主 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡下跌，其中 30 年期国债期货跌幅居前。消息面，中美双方发布日内 瓦经贸会谈联合声明，双方各下降了 91%的税率，暂停了 24%的税率，观察期为 90 天，标志着两国经 贸关系进入阶段性缓和，国债的避险需求快速回落，风险资产的风险偏好快速回升。从中长期的角度 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On May 12, treasury bond futures weakened collectively, with TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts falling by 0.08%, 0.20%, 0.46%, and 1.31% respectively. The central bank made a net investment, and the weighted average DR007 rate remained around 1.57%, indicating a relatively loose capital market. Domestically, economic data showed strong performance due to pre - emptive policy efforts to boost domestic demand, with retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial growth slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate improving month - on - month. Financial data also slightly exceeded expectations, but the private sector's financing willingness still needed to be boosted. In terms of prices, core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to the drag of international commodities. The expected escalation of tariff frictions led to an unexpected rebound in exports. Overseas, the US PMI in April declined slightly, and non - farm payroll growth, CPI, PPI, and retail sales data all fell short of expectations. Strategically, recent Sino - US tariff negotiations achieved phased results, and with the positive effects of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts exhausted, market risk - aversion sentiment declined significantly, causing the bond market to weaken. Considering that short - term bond futures have been significantly weaker than long - term ones recently, attention should be paid to the risk of long - term bond price corrections due to short - term interest rate spread adjustments. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: On May 12, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.530 (-0.46%), 105.890 (-0.2%), 102.276 (-0.08%), and 118.740 (-1.31%) respectively, and their trading volumes increased by 25984, 11884, 12096, and 27236 respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the TL2509 - 2506 spread decreased by 0.06 to 0.49, while the T2509 - 2506 spread increased by 0.04 to 0.19. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, and the net short positions of the top 20 in each contract also decreased to varying degrees. [2] 3.2 Bond Market Data - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: The net prices of several CTD bonds decreased, such as 240025.IB (6y) dropping by 0.3405 to 99.0631. [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of active bonds with different maturities decreased, with the 1 - year yield dropping by 1.00bp to 1.4000%. [2] 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates decreased, such as the overnight silver - pledged repo rate dropping by 4.20bp to 1.4080%. The LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - On May 12, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with an issue size of 430 billion yuan, a maturity size of 0, and an interest rate of 1.5% for 7 - day operations. [2] 3.5 Industry News - On May 12, the Ministry of Commerce released a joint statement on Sino - US economic and trade talks in Geneva. Compared with the April 7 tariff measures, the US adjusted to retain a 10% basic tariff + 20% fentanyl tariff, and postponed the rest for 90 days. China also retained a 10% tariff and postponed the rest. - The central bank released the First - Quarter 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, including measures such as increasing the volume of outright reverse repurchase operations, temporarily suspending treasury bond trading operations, and continuing to use the swap facilities among securities, funds, and insurance companies. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On May 13 at 20:30, the US April unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released. - On May 14 at 20:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 (in ten thousand people) and the US April retail sales month - on - month rate will be released. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Treasury bond futures mostly declined slightly, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed mixed trends, with the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rising 0.4bp. The inter - bank market liquidity was abundant, and the overnight and seven - day pledged repo rates of deposit - taking institutions both declined again, with the former falling more than 3bp and the latter more than 7bp. After the central bank's interest - rate cut policy took effect, the overall interest - rate center declined, and with consecutive net injections in the open market in recent days, the liquidity expectation was optimistic, and the capital price was expected to continue to fall in the short term [3] - The April PMI fell into the contraction range. The LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months. The central bank adjusted the MLF operation mode, and its policy attribute faded out completely. The central bank mentioned again the possibility of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. The first - quarter financial data was stable and positive. The CPI in March declined slightly but the decline narrowed, and the core CPI rose moderately. There were new developments in the recent tariff negotiations, but it was still a long way from reaching an agreement, which would impact the bond market [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts' price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and other information are presented. For example, the T2506 contract price was 109.060, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 78,100 and an open interest of 329,444 [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis - The fundamentals show that Treasury bond futures mostly declined slightly, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed mixed trends. The inter - bank market liquidity was abundant, and the capital price was expected to continue to fall in the short term [3] 3. Capital Flow Analysis - On May 9, the central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 77 billion yuan on that day [3] 4. Basis Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contract basis were negative, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TL main contract basis was positive, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3] 5. Inventory Analysis - The balance of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts was 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3566 trillion respectively, which was neutral [4] 6. Market Trend Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [4] 7. Main Position Analysis - The TS and TF main contracts had net long positions, and the long positions increased. The T main contract had a net long position, but the long positions decreased [5]