Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate - cut expectations persist, and factors such as trade uncertainty, weak ADP employment, US debt expansion, de - dollarization, and geopolitical conflicts boost gold's safe - haven demand. The "official buying spree" and the long - term weakening trend of the US dollar index make gold's strategic allocation value stable [3]. - Last week, copper prices first rose and then fell. The December contract has reached its peak, and the price will be dominated by the spot market. In November, the market's focus is on the January contract. If the rate - cut expectation strengthens in December, the January contract may have the momentum to hit the previous high; otherwise, the probability of high - level consolidation increases [17]. - Last week, Shanghai aluminum prices were strong due to the resonance of macro and fundamentals. After macro events, the market may seek new trading logic. Overseas disturbances may be more frequent than domestic ones, and Shanghai aluminum will oscillate at a high level in the short term, testing the 21,500 resistance level. Alumina prices may be weak in the short term due to oversupply, and attention should be paid to cost - profit and production - adjustment news [37]. - Currently, the smelting end is fiercely competing for zinc ore. The price of overseas ore has no advantage, and the domestic ore increment is small, causing the TC in November to drop significantly again. The smelting end's willingness to cut or stop production in November has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory provides support for prices, and there is an upward driving force in November [59]. - In the nickel industry chain, Indonesia's new regulations on 2026 quota applications for nickel ore are stricter. The new energy sector is in the peak production and consumption season, with tight market circulation and low overall inventory levels. Nickel iron prices have been continuously lowered due to weak downstream demand. Stainless steel prices have been oscillating weakly, and many large steel mills have announced production cuts for the 200 - series. The Fed's rate - cut decision and Sino - US friendly talks bring positive signals [75]. - Fundamentally, the supply of tin is weaker than demand, with a decline in Yunnan's production and a sharp reduction in concentrate imports. The short - term supply - side disturbances are difficult to resolve, and Shanghai tin will remain strong in the short term, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [89]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply may increase in October due to the release of salt - lake production capacity and the possible resumption of "Jianxiawo". The demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase before the end of the year. Overall, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show an oscillating and strengthening trend [105]. - In the silicon industry chain, industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high supply - side pressure and a downward trend in downstream operating rates. The polysilicon industry chain is reducing production and accumulating inventory, with weak fundamentals. The polysilicon futures have high volatility and high risks [118]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Conditions**: The Fed's rate - cut expectations and various factors support gold prices. The US dollar index has a long - term weakening trend, and gold has a stable strategic allocation value [3]. - **Data Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold and US dollar index relationships, and gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventory data [4][8][12][16] Copper - **Price and Market Conditions**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated, and the December contract reached its peak. The January contract's trend depends on the rate - cut expectation in December. The current copper import profit is - 871.53 yuan/ton, and the copper concentrate TC is - 42.26 dollars/ton [17][28]. - **Data Charts**: Include copper futures and spot prices, inventory data, import and export profit data, and price difference data [18][23][33][35] Aluminum - **Price and Market Conditions**: Shanghai aluminum prices were strong last week and will oscillate at a high level in the short term. Alumina prices may be weak due to oversupply. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum and has strong support [37][38]. - **Data Charts**: Include aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, price difference data, inventory data, and import and export profit data [38][40][45][54] Zinc - **Price and Market Conditions**: The smelting end's willingness to cut production has increased in November due to ore supply issues. If demand is stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory provides support for prices [59]. - **Data Charts**: Include zinc futures and spot prices, price difference data, and inventory data [60][67][72] Nickel Industry Chain - **Price and Market Conditions**: Indonesia's new regulations on nickel ore quotas are stricter. The new energy sector has tight circulation, nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless steel prices are oscillating weakly. Many large steel mills have announced production cuts [75]. - **Data Charts**: Include nickel and stainless steel futures prices, inventory data, nickel ore prices, and downstream profit data [76][80][84] Tin - **Price and Market Conditions**: The supply of tin is weaker than demand, and Shanghai tin will remain strong in the short term, with support around 276,000 yuan [89]. - **Data Charts**: Include tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and import and export profit data [90][96][100] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Conditions**: The supply of lithium carbonate may increase, and the demand from downstream enterprises is expected to rise. The futures price is expected to oscillate and strengthen [105]. - **Data Charts**: Include lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory data, and price difference data [106][111][115] Silicon Industry Chain - **Price and Market Conditions**: Industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the polysilicon industry chain is reducing production and accumulating inventory, with high risks [118]. - **Data Charts**: Include industrial silicon and polysilicon prices, production, inventory, and cost data [119][124][131][135]

高盛上调对中国出口增速预期 高盛研究团队预测，人民币国际化可能在未来几年显著加速。预计随着高新技术制造业竞争力提升以及 人民币国际化加速，中国股市将表现领先，人民币对美元汇率将会升值。到2028年中国经常账户顺差与 国内生产总值(GDP)之比将接近5%，考虑到中国经济的庞大体量，这将是相对于全球GDP的历史新高。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 上述报告还认为，10月份发生的两个重大事件——《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五 年规划的建议》对外公布和中美经贸团队通过吉隆坡磋商达成成果共识，发出的信号方向一致，即中国 将进一步提升先进制造业竞争力并进一步提振出口。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 由此，高盛研究团队上调了对中国出口增速的预期，预计未来几年中国出口量将每年增长5%至6%，获 得更多全球市场份额并推动整体经济扩张。(完) 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：郭晋嘉 中新社北京11月3日电 (记者 夏宾)中新社记者3日从高盛集团获 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Bank of Korea have renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement, which is set at 400 billion RMB/70 trillion KRW for five years, aimed at enhancing monetary cooperation and stabilizing financial markets [1] Group 1: Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement - The renewed agreement will facilitate trade and investment between China and South Korea, providing liquidity support to financial markets [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the PBOC has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 43 countries, with 32 active agreements totaling over 4.5 trillion RMB [2] Group 2: Strengthening RMB Financing Functions - By the end of June 2025, foreign entities held RMB financial assets in China totaling 10.4 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3] - The offshore RMB market is developing steadily, with RMB deposits in major offshore markets reaching approximately 1.6 trillion RMB, a historical high [3] Group 3: Policy and Market Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes advancing RMB internationalization and enhancing capital account openness, indicating a more proactive approach compared to previous plans [4] - The PBOC aims to streamline policies related to cross-border RMB financial services and promote RMB settlement for overseas projects [4] Group 4: Financial Market Opening - The report encourages foreign institutions to participate in financial business trials and supports the orderly investment of foreign entities in China's financial markets [5] - The PBOC plans to enhance the offshore RMB market by increasing liquidity supply and diversifying RMB financial products [5] Group 5: Cross-Border Payment System - The PBOC is working on building a self-controlled cross-border payment system to improve the efficiency of RMB clearing services [6] - There is a focus on enhancing regulatory frameworks for cross-border RMB transactions to ensure risk management and safeguard the internationalization of the RMB [6]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Bank of Korea have renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement with a scale of 400 billion RMB / 70 trillion KRW, effective for five years, which can be extended by mutual consent [1] - The renewal of the agreement aims to deepen monetary and financial cooperation between the two countries, facilitate bilateral trade, and maintain financial market stability [1] Bilateral Currency Cooperation - As of June 30, 2025, the PBOC has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 43 countries and regions, with 32 effective agreements totaling over 4.5 trillion RMB [2] - The actual utilization of RMB by foreign central banks reached 80.67 billion RMB, while the PBOC's utilization of foreign currency swap funds was approximately 3.8 billion RMB [2] - The internationalization of the RMB has accelerated, showing progress in cross-border trade settlement, financial market opening, and reserve currency status [2] Offshore RMB Market Development - The offshore RMB market is steadily developing, with the PBOC collaborating with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to facilitate RMB transactions and support a new 100 billion RMB trade financing arrangement [3] - As of the first quarter of 2025, offshore RMB deposits reached approximately 1.6 trillion RMB, a historical high, and offshore RMB bond issuance amounted to 1.2 trillion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 27% year-on-year increase [3] Policy and Framework Enhancements - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes advancing RMB internationalization and enhancing capital account openness, indicating a more proactive approach compared to previous plans [4] - The PBOC aims to eliminate policy bottlenecks and integrate cross-border and offshore RMB financial services, promoting RMB settlement for overseas project loans and encouraging more entities to issue RMB-denominated securities [4] Financial Market Opening - The report outlines a gradual opening of the financial services sector, allowing qualified foreign institutions to participate in financial business trials and optimizing channels for domestic institutions to invest abroad [5] - It also proposes the development of RMB foreign exchange derivatives and the promotion of RMB trading with neighboring countries and regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [5] Cross-Border Payment System - The report highlights the construction of a self-controlled cross-border payment system for RMB, expanding the coverage of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and enhancing cross-border RMB clearing services [6] - It emphasizes the need for a robust regulatory framework for cross-border RMB business to ensure risk prevention while promoting internationalization [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global capital is increasingly recognizing the investment value of Chinese technology innovation, particularly in emerging sectors like AI, electric vehicles, and clean technology, with Chinese stock valuations still at relatively low levels and potential for upward movement [1][2][3] - International investors are becoming aware of the global competitiveness of technologies developed in China, leading to a realization that some Chinese stocks can offer best-in-class asset returns [2][3] - China's economic growth rate exceeded 5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating a robust and sustainable economic foundation, although there are structural differences in industry performance [3][4] Group 2 - The supply chain finance sector is poised for significant development opportunities as Chinese companies accelerate their international expansion, with Standard Chartered leveraging its understanding of both Chinese and international supply chains to provide critical insights and financial support [4][5] - Standard Chartered has launched a one-stop cross-border financial solution called "Standard Chartered Global Chain," focusing on accounts receivable and payable management, risk management, and cross-border fund management to support enterprises [5][6] - The internationalization of the RMB is accelerating, with a need to expand offshore markets and provide more investment options in RMB to international investors, which is crucial for the currency's broader use [7][8] Group 3 - Shanghai has made significant progress in infrastructure, financial regulation, and legal development, contributing to its evolution into an international financial center, with a strong ecosystem in asset management, banking, insurance, and brokerage [8] - The Shanghai Free Trade Zone is developing offshore business, primarily supporting onshore entities, and is seen as a model for gradual opening, catering to foreign institutions managing both onshore and offshore operations [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Finance plans to issue USD-denominated sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, with a scale not exceeding 40 billion, marking a significant move in the context of US-China negotiations [1] Group 1: Financial Mechanisms and Policies - The second meeting of the joint working group between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China signifies a new phase of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, aiming to create a unique macro-control system [3] - The resumption of central bank operations in government bond trading is expected to provide monetary support for growth policies in the fourth quarter of 2024 [8][10] - The issuance of offshore RMB bonds is a key strategy to enhance the role of Hong Kong as a major offshore RMB center, providing stable RMB asset options for foreign investors [10][26] Group 2: Debt Structure and Economic Comparison - China's total M2 money supply reached 304 trillion RMB (approximately 42.1 trillion USD) by Q3 2025, significantly higher than the US's 20.8 trillion USD, yet maintaining moderate CPI growth [12] - As of 2025, China's total government debt is 92.6 trillion RMB (approximately 12.3 trillion USD), with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.64%, contrasting with the US's 127% ratio [15][18] - Unlike the US, where debt is primarily used for consumption, about 60% of China's government debt is allocated to high-quality assets like transportation and energy [12][15] Group 3: Internationalization of RMB - The RMB internationalization index reached 5.68% in 2025, making it the third-largest international currency, but still trailing behind the US dollar [20] - The proportion of RMB settlements in trade with countries along the Belt and Road has increased from 15% in 2020 to 28% in 2025, particularly in energy trade [22] - The use of RMB in energy cooperation with Russia has exceeded 45%, showcasing a successful model that is being replicated in other regions [24] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Global Impact - The offshore RMB center in Hong Kong saw a trading volume of 8.6 trillion RMB in the first half of 2025, a 35% increase from the previous year, enhancing its role as a cross-border payment hub [26] - The exploration of a financial development path distinct from the US aims to provide a more stable global economic environment, countering the "harvesting" model associated with US dollar dominance [27]

Core Insights - Russia is set to issue domestic bonds denominated in Chinese yuan, marking a significant shift in its financial strategy amid ongoing Western sanctions [1][6] - The bond issuance, with a maximum scale of 400 billion rubles (approximately 4.9 billion USD), is aimed at alleviating financial pressure on the Russian economy [6] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The bond issuance will have maturities ranging from 3 to 10 years, with the first trades expected to start in December [6] - The decision to issue yuan-denominated bonds is seen as a response to the economic challenges posed by the prolonged Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions [6] Group 2: Economic Context - Russia's budget deficit is projected to soar to 5.7 trillion rubles (about 630 million USD) by 2025, significantly higher than initial forecasts [6] - The reliance on Chinese financial systems is highlighted as a necessity due to blocked access to dollar and euro channels, indicating a strategic pivot towards China [6] Group 3: Implications for Currency - This move is expected to enhance the international standing of the yuan, creating a mutually beneficial scenario for both Russia and China [6]

依托银行间市场核心交易商与做市商的深厚积淀，上海银行已完成跨境金融市场做市全布局。从2017年成为首批债券通"北向通"做市商，到2021年获批"南向通"交易资质，2024年拿下CNH外 恰逢即将迎来30周年行庆的重要节点，上海银行称此次实现跨境做市全领域覆盖，更具里程碑意义。展望未来，该行表示，将充分释放五大跨境业务资质协同优势，以总行核心FICC交易台、离 同时，上海银行将持续发挥扎根上海国际金融中心的地缘优势，助力提升"上海价格"国际影响力，为我国金融市场高水平对外开放与人民币国际化稳健推进注入"上银力量"，为构建多层次金融 责任编辑：曹睿潼 记者自上海银行获悉，近日，在人民银行指导及外汇交易中心、上海清算所支持下，上海银行获批利率互换"北向互换通"报价商资质，成为国内唯一获此资质的城市商业银行。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that both the US and China are entering critical years, with global investment driven by three and a half engines: AI investment, defense spending, and industrial restructuring [1][14] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and technology as key policy areas [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is anticipated to gain momentum, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [2][11] Group 2: Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets a supportive policy tone, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, albeit with less room than in the current year [3][15] - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of expansion, with total tools estimated at 15.7 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan from this year [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural tools and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support various sectors [3][15] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The narrative of "asset scarcity" in the bond market is expected to weaken, with a focus on the verification of corporate profits and capacity utilization [4][18] - The report notes that government bond supply is likely to increase, but market pressure will be manageable due to central bank support [4][18] - Institutional behavior is identified as a major source of market volatility, with a reduction in stable funding leading to increased market fluctuations [4][18] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" characteristic, with the central rate likely remaining stable or slightly increasing [5][18] - The report suggests a strategy of segment trading, coupon strategies, and equity exposure as priorities over duration adjustment and credit downgrading [5][18] - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a widening of term spreads anticipated [5][18]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Finance's decision to issue USD-denominated bonds is a strategic move to enhance its international creditworthiness and challenge the dominance of the US dollar in global finance [1][3][5]. Group 1: Financial Strategy - China does not need the $4 billion from the bond issuance, as it has a significant trade surplus and over $3 trillion in foreign reserves [3][5]. - The key focus of this bond issuance is on "credit," as the interest rate on the bonds will reflect China's creditworthiness compared to US Treasury bonds [5][7]. - If the interest rate on China's bonds is lower than that of US Treasuries, it would signal global confidence in China's credit [7][11]. Group 2: Impact on Global Finance - The issuance of these bonds could challenge the perception of the US dollar as the "safest" asset, potentially redistributing international capital flows [9][11]. - If international investors favor Chinese bonds, it could lead to a split in capital flows during global crises, with some capital moving to China instead of solely to the US [11][12]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - The bond issuance serves multiple strategic purposes, including aiding developing countries in debt distress, thereby positioning China as a responsible global player [14][16]. - It may also promote the internationalization of the Renminbi, as future repayments could be explored in Renminbi, increasing its circulation in global trade [19][21]. - Additionally, attracting more USD through these bonds could inadvertently contribute to inflation in the US by reducing the amount of USD available in the international market [23][26].