Core Viewpoint - The recent notice from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) represents a significant reform in cross-border capital flow management, enhancing the structure for cross-border payments and the use of the renminbi, thereby supporting the internationalization of the renminbi during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][4][10]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The notice aims to improve the convenience of cross-border investment and financing, attract foreign investment, and promote high-quality financial services for the real economy [3][10]. - Key reforms include the cancellation of prior registration requirements for foreign direct investment (FDI) expenses and the facilitation of reinvestment of foreign exchange profits within China [3][4]. - The notice also simplifies the management of cross-border financing for high-tech and specialized small and medium-sized enterprises, raising the financing limit to the equivalent of $10 million, with some enterprises eligible for up to $20 million [4][10]. Group 2: Capital Project Adjustments - Adjustments in capital project income payments include reducing the negative list and removing restrictions on purchasing non-self-use residential properties [4][10]. - The notice allows for a more flexible approach to payment facilitation, enabling banks to set their own post-check ratios and frequencies [4][10]. - Foreign individuals can now settle payments for property purchases in China with just a purchase contract, streamlining the process [4][10]. Group 3: Cross-Border Payment System Development - The notice aligns with the 10th anniversary of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which has expanded significantly, processing transactions worth 175 trillion yuan annually with a compound annual growth rate of 43% over the past decade [7][8]. - CIPS now covers 189 countries and regions, processing 4.03 million transactions worth 9.02 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, highlighting its role in supporting the internationalization of the renminbi [8][9]. - The development of a diversified cross-border payment system is emphasized, with increasing use of local currencies and new payment infrastructures emerging [6][11]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The notice is seen as a pivotal moment in China's financial strategy, aiming to balance development and security while enhancing cross-border investment and financing [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the reforms may create a rare window for investors to benefit from duration premiums and institutional arbitrage, although caution is advised as these opportunities may diminish once the reforms are fully implemented [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) and its potential to increase its share in global reserves, currently at 2%, by leveraging China's economic growth and expanding foreign investment opportunities in RMB-denominated assets [3][9]. Group 1: RMB Internationalization Progress - Since 2009, China's efforts to internationalize the RMB have shown limited progress, with its international usage still less than half that of the British pound and significantly lower than the US dollar [4]. - China's GDP share in global GDP has increased from 6% in 2000 to 19% in 2023, highlighting its growing economic influence [3]. - The RMB's internationalization could be accelerated by emerging market central banks diversifying their assets, especially in the context of geopolitical changes post-2022 [4]. Group 2: Determinants of Reserve Currency Status - Key factors influencing the choice of reserve currency include inertia, economic size, financial market depth, currency credibility, and increasingly, geopolitical considerations [5]. - A panel regression model from 1986 to 2022 reveals that reserve currency status exhibits strong inertia, with adjustments to reserve composition being slow and minimal in the short term [6]. - Economic size is identified as the most significant determinant of reserve currency share, with potential critical points where further GDP increases could lead to disproportionate growth in reserve share [6][7]. Group 3: Historical Insights on Currency Dominance - Historical transitions of currency dominance, such as the shift from the pound to the dollar, illustrate that becoming a dominant currency is a lengthy process, often taking decades [8]. - The policies and actions of both the challenger and the incumbent currency significantly impact the international use of currencies [8]. - Major economic downturns can hinder the internationalization process of a currency, as seen in past instances with the dollar and other currencies [8]. Group 4: Unique Aspects of RMB Internationalization - China's approach to RMB internationalization may focus on expanding the offshore market (CNH) while keeping the onshore market (CNY) relatively stable [10]. - The RMB's internationalization is expected to play a more significant role in foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly towards Belt and Road Initiative countries [11]. - The development of a cross-border payment system (CIPS) and RMB-denominated commodity trading is part of China's strategy to enhance the RMB's global standing [12]. Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities - The growing manufacturing strength of China and geopolitical changes present new opportunities for RMB internationalization, but challenges remain in balancing market stability with foreign investor demands [13]. - The rise of stablecoins and financial innovations poses regulatory challenges, necessitating urgent strategies from Chinese authorities to address potential risks and ensure effective oversight [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the structural policy reforms aimed at enhancing cross-border investment and financing, which are expected to attract foreign capital and support high-quality economic development [3][4][5] - The recent notice from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange introduces significant reforms in foreign exchange management for foreign direct investment (FDI), including the cancellation of certain registration requirements and the facilitation of reinvestment of foreign exchange profits [3][4] - The reforms also expand the cross-border financing capabilities for high-tech and specialized small and medium enterprises, increasing the financing limits to $10 million and potentially up to $20 million for selected innovative enterprises [3][4] Group 2 - The article highlights the challenges faced by the traditional cross-border payment system, including inefficiencies and high costs due to technological lag, insufficient legal coordination, and geopolitical risks [5][6] - It discusses the diversification of the cross-border payment system, with an increasing number of countries using local currencies for settlements, which is changing the dominance of a single sovereign currency [6][7] - The establishment of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has significantly enhanced the infrastructure for RMB internationalization, processing transactions worth 175 trillion yuan annually, with a compound annual growth rate of 43% over ten years [7][8] Group 3 - The simultaneous introduction of the recent notice and the tenth anniversary of CIPS reflects China's strategic approach to balancing development and security in the financial sector [8][9] - Analysts suggest that the recent reforms represent a significant shift in cross-border investment facilitation, financing expansion, and optimization of capital projects, creating a more open institutional framework [8][9] - The upcoming 14th Central Committee meeting is expected to set the tone for the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on technology development and domestic demand, which may positively impact the A-share and Hong Kong markets [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong government, led by Chief Executive John Lee, has introduced the "2025 Policy Address," which has received strong support from various regulatory bodies and institutions in Hong Kong, emphasizing measures to strengthen Hong Kong's position as a leading international financial center [2]. Group 1: Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) - The SFC welcomes measures in the Policy Address aimed at reinforcing Hong Kong's status as a global preferred listing venue and enhancing the stock market and listing system [4]. - Suggestions to include RMB counters and real estate investment trusts in the Stock Connect are expected to deepen ties between Hong Kong and mainland markets [4]. - The SFC highlights the importance of promoting bond issuance and establishing a commercial repurchase market to further develop the fixed income and currency markets, enhancing Hong Kong's attractiveness to global investors [4][5]. Group 2: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) - HKEX leadership expresses support for the Policy Address, noting that initiatives covering both primary and secondary markets will help sustain Hong Kong's development as an international financial center [6][7]. - The HKEX aims to enhance the diversity of financial products available in the market, including securities, fixed income, currency, commodities, and carbon markets [7]. Group 3: Hong Kong Insurance Authority - The Insurance Authority supports measures in the Policy Address that aim to enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center, particularly in specialized insurance and reinsurance [8][9]. - The establishment of a shipping risk pool is seen as a way to create new opportunities and improve resilience against emergencies [9]. Group 4: Hong Kong Chinese Fund Industry Association - The Association praises the Policy Address for its focus on strengthening the stock market and developing a leading bond market, which will attract global capital to Hong Kong [10]. - Proposals to shorten the stock settlement cycle to "T+1" and facilitate the return of Chinese concept stocks are expected to broaden investment channels for Chinese funds [11]. Group 5: Hong Kong Cyberport - Cyberport welcomes the Policy Address's emphasis on advancing artificial intelligence (AI) and data industries, aiming to position Hong Kong as an international hub for these sectors [12][13]. - Cyberport plans to support the development of an AI ecosystem and attract innovative enterprises to enhance Hong Kong's status as a technology center [13]. Group 6: Hong Kong Financial Development Council - The Financial Development Council supports the Policy Address's initiatives aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of Hong Kong's financial markets, including the promotion of reinsurance and the inclusion of real estate investment trusts in the connectivity mechanism [14]. Group 7: Hong Kong University of Science and Technology - The University expresses encouragement regarding the Policy Address's focus on AI development and plans to establish an AI research institute by 2026 [15][16]. - The University aims to collaborate with the government to enhance AI education and contribute to the development of the AI ecosystem [16].

新华财经北京9月18日电（马萌伟）美联储宣布降息25个基点后，美元指数短线跳水，但在随后的新闻 发布会上，鲍威尔称这是"风险管理" 的降息，美元指数随即反弹并收复97关口，人民币兑美元整体交 投于7.10关口下方。 17日北美交易时段，在岸人民币兑美元震荡走高，盘中升破7.11关口，最高升至7.1034；离岸人民币兑 美元先涨后跌，盘中一度?破7.09关口。18日，人民币兑美元中间价调降72点至7.1085，降幅创2025年4 月7日以来最大。 消息显示，美联储如期降息25基点，强调就业下行风险，认为通胀有所上升，预计年内还降息两次、明 年降息一次，米兰投下唯一反对票、主张降息50基点。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，本次属风险管理型降 息，50基点降息呼声不高，就业下行成为实质性风险。 "美联储传声筒"NickTimiraos称，这是鲍威尔领导下的美联储第三次在经济未面临明显下滑的情况下开 始降息。但考虑到通胀形势（更加棘手）和政治因素（白宫的对抗性），2019年和2024年的利害关系与 现在有所不同。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙说："美联储此次降息后，预计年底可能还会降息两次，10月份12月 份各降息25个基点 ...

自2000年以来，中国GDP在全球GDP总量中的占比从6%升至19%，增加了13个百分点。在国际贸易领 域，中国已超过美国，成为全球货物贸易流动的最大贡献国。中国在全球人口中占比17%，而在全球制 造业增加值中占比33%。对于140多个国家而言，中国是比美国更大的贸易伙伴。 中国在全球经济和贸易舞台上的主导作用越发明显。相比之下，人民币在国际金融活动和官方储备中的 使用占比仍处于低位。 除了全球经济背景之外，近年来全球地缘政治格局也在发生变化。2022年俄乌冲突之后，新兴市场央行 资产多元化的意愿增强。尽管仍处早期阶段，但新兴市场国家资产多元化的需求有望为未来几年人民币 加速国际化打开大门。 专注发展离岸市场，同时保持在岸市场基本不变。 人民币在全球金融领域所占份额依然偏低，与当前中国在全球经济和贸易中的重要地位形成了鲜明对 比。如果中国能够继续发展经济、避免危机、扩大外资易于参与的人民币计价资产并建立市场信心，那 么人民币在官方储备中所占份额就有可能显著突破当前2%的份额。探索国际化之路，中国可能会明显 扩大并放开离岸市场（CNH），同时保持在岸市场（CNY）基本不变，对外直接投资（FDI）在人民币 国际化 ...

当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，这是自2024年12月以来的首次降息。这一决策迅速传导至外汇市场，人民币汇 率在多重因素推动下呈现显著波动。9月18日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1085，较前一交易日调升14个基点；离岸人民币兑美元盘中升破7.09关口，最高触及 7.0845，创去年11月以来新高。这场政策调整不仅重塑了中美利差格局，更对人民币汇率形成机制、跨境资本流动及货币政策空间产生深远影响。 汇率波动：被动升值与政策引导的双重驱动 人民币杂志首席金融观察员 大河 中国金融网版权图片 此次美联储降息标志着全球货币政策进入新阶段，人民币在波动中加速融入国际货币体系。从历史视角看，1990年以来的六轮降息周期中，预防式降息往往 伴随资产价格重构，而人民币正从被动跟随转向主动定价。例如，跨境人民币支付系统（CIPS）使用率提升，缓解了新兴市场债务压力，而香港作为最大 离岸人民币枢纽，通过发行更多人民币债券、探索本币交易等举措，增强了人民币的全球辐射能力。 然而，资本流入的结构性风险不容忽视。高盛数据显示，9月17日港股大涨主要由外资驱动，南向交易占比降至25% ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The global financial landscape is undergoing profound changes driven by rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical restructuring, leading to a significant "de-dollarization" movement [2] - The push for de-dollarization is not only a strategic policy choice but also catalyzing a technological revolution in cross-border payments and innovative business practices [2] - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is highlighted by a bilateral swap agreement between the People's Bank of China and the Saudi Central Bank, marking a breakthrough in RMB's role in oil trade settlements [5][6] Group 2: Key Developments in Cross-Border Payments - The traditional cross-border payment system, heavily reliant on SWIFT, faces criticism due to high costs (2%-5% fees), inefficiencies (3-5 days for settlement), and politicization, prompting a consensus for a diversified payment system [6] - Five Chinese fintech giants are emerging as core players in reshaping the global payment order through differentiated technological approaches [9] - Ant Group's cross-border payment scale surpassed 1.2 trillion yuan in 2023, with innovations like instant remittance and blockchain-based trade settlement significantly enhancing efficiency [9][10] Group 3: Innovations and Technological Advancements - Tencent's blockchain cross-border settlement platform has improved transaction efficiency by 80%, while its digital payment solutions are facilitating RMB's penetration in retail scenarios [9][10] - JD Technology's focus on supply chain financial digitization has led to a 300% year-on-year increase in cross-border B2B transaction volume in the first half of 2024 [10] - The application of blockchain technology in cross-border payments has reduced costs by over 70% and enabled real-time transaction updates, enhancing trust in international trade [12] Group 4: Broader Implications for Financial Infrastructure - The digital RMB's mixed settlement unit system is innovatively designed to mitigate direct competition with the US dollar, providing a more stable settlement option for emerging markets [12][15] - The practices of these fintech companies illustrate that RMB internationalization is not merely about currency substitution but involves building more inclusive financial infrastructure through technological innovation [15] - The transformation in cross-border payments reflects a broader reshaping of global financial order, with the digital RMB settlement system expanding to cover 50 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [15]

据了解，此次债券为绿色债券，募集资金将投向清洁交通等项目，对深化两地在债券市场、绿色金融等 领域协同发展，推进深澳特色金融合作具有重要意义。2021年以来，中国银行在历次境外地方政府债发 行中均担任独家或牵头全球协调人，并在全部ESG债券发行中担任顾问，海内外分行的联动优势和专业 服务得到了发行人的充分肯定。中国银行将继续发挥全球化优势和综合化特色，助力澳门拓展金融新业 态，为人民币国际化进程稳步推进持续贡献金融力量。 本报讯 记者赵萌报道 近日，中国银行作为独家全球协调人协助深圳市人民政府首次在澳门发行绿色离 岸人民币地方政府债券，并担任绿色结构顾问。据悉，此次发行规模10亿元，期限3年，票面利率 1.74%，受到市场投资者高度关注和踊跃认购，订单簿峰值规模达到66.2亿元，认购倍数达6.62倍，创 下人民币债券在澳门发行订单倍数历史新高。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, highlighting a significant rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.46%, marking the largest three-day volatility since 1981 [3] - The US Treasury's bond buyback reached a historic high of $138 billion, nearly double the previous year's total, indicating efforts to stabilize the market amid rising debt, which now exceeds $36 trillion [3][5] - There is a noticeable decline in demand for US Treasury bonds, with major domestic investors purchasing only 6.2% of a recent three-year bond auction, down from a typical 19%, reflecting growing skepticism towards US dollar assets [5] Group 2 - In contrast, the Chinese yuan is gaining traction, with the exchange rate against the US dollar reaching 7.1163, the highest since November of the previous year, supported by China's robust groundwork in international payments [7][16] - The People's Bank of China reported that the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) now covers 189 countries, processing 4.0295 million transactions worth 90.19 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, equating to approximately 2.5 million yuan per second in global transactions [7][11] - China's energy imports from the US have plummeted to nearly zero, while imports from Russia have increased by 16.8%, with many transactions being settled in yuan, showcasing the yuan's growing international acceptance [9][12] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the value of a currency is underpinned by its strength and credibility, contrasting the US's $36 trillion debt and geopolitical tensions with China's focus on trade and infrastructure development [12][14] - The trend indicates a shift in global currency dynamics, with more countries recognizing the benefits of using the yuan for transactions, as it is perceived as safer and more convenient compared to the dollar [14]