壹｜本周深度报告汇总 【宏观】 人民币汇率："反直觉"的新范式 近期人民币汇率与美中利差出现背离，本质在于：美债利率上行并非经济强，而是信用弱。因此，人民币 受益于： 1 ）美元资产信用折价，带动企业结汇意愿提升； 2 ）高利率压制信用扩张，美国衰退预期强 化。未来人民币汇率定价需要充分重视美元信用这个变量，弱美元环境也给国内流动性和政策空间带来更 大的冗余度。 风险提示： 美国关税扰动反复、国内经济压力升温 。 01、 【宏观】 人民币汇率："反直觉"的新范式 02、 【宏观】 全球变局下的金融：促改革、扩开放、重科创——2025年陆家嘴论坛政策解读 03、 【宏观】 稳定币：六大"误区 ——全球货币变局研究八 04、 【宏观】 存款从"回家"到"再搬家" ——中国居民财富配置研究一 05、 【策略】 褪色的霸权 : 美元走弱下的资产配置启示——1970年以来七轮美元趋势走弱下的资产行情复 盘 06、 【策略】 中国股市十大投资主题：前沿技术篇 07、 【策略】 中国股市十大投资主题：先进制造篇 08、 【策略】 中国股市十大投资主题：格局改善篇 09、 【策略】 资本市场改革进入提速期 —— 2025 年 ...

以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 真人实地调研，专注楼市研究10余年！大胡子教买房为您带来一手消息，助您预判楼市风向，实现资产稳步增长！ 前两天在2025陆家嘴论坛上，央妈以及证J会下相继发布了有关资本市场的几条大招： 首先是央妈放出了八项重磅金融政策： 具体每一条看起来比较复杂，但是简单总结其实就是开放金融。 第一个开放点是 RMB的国际化 新八条中提到要建立数字RMB国际运营中心，而且也已经和30多个国家签了双边本币互换的协议。 第二个开放点就是 离岸市场 。 你像离岸贸易金融服务综合改革，发展自贸离岸债，这些都是针对离岸资金的政C。 我们要扩大我们的金融影响力，针对海外市场的离岸市场是必须要发展起来的，因为我们要考虑到外部有大量的离岸 RMB。 这些RMB如果能回流到国内市场，对我们的资本市场以及社会面的资金流都是有好处的，所以接下来肯定要做一些调整 来承接这一部分资金。 前段时间，香港那边的稳定币法案出台，就是承接离岸市场资金的一个手段。 但是光有香港还不够，国内的金融中心上海多少也得分一杯羹， 所以预计这次央妈提出的新八条，具体落地都会放在上 海。 第三个开放点就是 外H ...

Core Insights - The article discusses China's strategic initiatives to enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) through a series of financial reforms and technological advancements aimed at establishing a dual-track system of "digital RMB + offshore finance" [3][4][11]. Group 1: Financial Initiatives - The People's Bank of China announced eight financial opening measures to be implemented in Shanghai, including the establishment of a bank interbank market trading report library and a digital RMB international operation center [5][11]. - These measures signify a transition for Shanghai's international financial center from merely aggregating institutions to building mechanisms that enhance the pricing power of RMB assets [5][7]. - The establishment of the digital RMB international operation center aims to facilitate cross-border payments and digital clearing channels, thereby improving capital flow and transaction convenience [5][6]. Group 2: Internationalization Strategy - The initiatives are designed to strengthen the RMB's international status, particularly through the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and the promotion of RMB foreign exchange futures trading [6][10]. - The RMB cross-border payment system (CIPS) has expanded its network by including foreign institutions, enhancing the efficiency of RMB settlements and facilitating its international use [8][9]. - The focus on creating a risk management center and a global asset management platform is intended to guide global investors in RMB asset allocation, thereby increasing the RMB's role as a reserve and pricing currency [10][11]. Group 3: Technological Integration - The integration of technology, such as artificial intelligence and big data, is emphasized to improve the efficiency and quality of financial services, reflecting the importance of financial innovation in the digital economy [6][12]. - The measures aim to establish a financial safety asset system for the RMB, enhancing its market pricing power and creating a closed-loop system for valuation, storage, and clearing [12][14]. Group 4: Long-term Vision - The article suggests that the institutional advantages created by these reforms could serve as a protective barrier for the RMB's internationalization efforts, with a focus on achieving a deeper role in global trade and finance [14][15]. - The successful internationalization of the RMB will require strong market support and international trust mechanisms, alongside the development of local financial markets and cross-border RMB business infrastructure [14][15].

今日，中国人民银行与香港金融管理局联合举办内地与香港快速支付系统互联互通（以下简称 跨境支付通）启动仪式，标志着跨境支付通将于6月22日起正式上线运行。 与香港间的跨境支付通支持参与机构为两地居民办理经常项目项下跨境汇款， 包括双向的留 学缴费、医疗缴费、薪酬及津补贴发放等便民、惠民金融服务。 首批参与跨境支付通的内地 机构包括工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、招商银行，以及6家香港金 融机构。 "近年来，内地香港经贸合作人员往来更加紧密，两地金融管理部门为加快融合发展的趋势， 相继推出了沪港通、债券通、跨境理财通、互换通等金融举措。在此基础上，人民银行与香港 金管局经过研究，聚焦支撑两地支付服务的便利性，进一步推出跨境支付通。"央行行长潘功 胜今日表示，跨境支付通的上线，是内地与香港深化金融合作的有一个重要里程碑，充分体现 了中央政府对巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位的高度重视，以及支持香港长期繁荣稳定和发 展的信心、决心。 多位业内人士对财联社记者指出，此举有助于提升人民币在跨境零售场景中的使用便利度，进 一步推动人民币国际化进程。从技术角度看，"跨境支付通"通过系统直连实现资金实时清算， ...

Group 1: Potential for China-Europe Financial Cooperation - The potential for China-Europe financial cooperation is significant, particularly in establishing a global unified and actionable green standard system [1][4] - The cooperation has evolved from mutual benefit in trade and investment to a more profound partnership aimed at shaping the future together, sharing development opportunities, and addressing global responsibilities [2][3] - The current global economic landscape presents challenges, with risks evolving from isolated incidents to chain reactions, necessitating a collaborative approach between China and Europe [2][3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Integration - There is a broad space for deepening cooperation between the Renminbi and the Euro, especially in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative, which could lead to a strategic "China-Europe Regional Economic Community" [3][4] - The internationalization of the Renminbi is supported by China's technological advancements and competitive products, which provide a long-term economic foundation for currency appreciation [5][6] - The interaction between high-level corporate internationalization and Renminbi internationalization is mutually reinforcing, enhancing competitiveness and risk management for enterprises [6] Group 3: Digital Finance and Innovation - Digital finance is showing immense potential, enhancing financial inclusivity and innovation, with a focus on the evolution of banks beyond traditional lending roles [7][8] - The rapid development of AI is transforming various industries, including finance, necessitating a proactive approach to embrace uncertainty and leverage opportunities in the AI era [8][9] - Shanghai is emerging as a global hub for green and digital finance, with significant advancements in policy openness, green financing mechanisms, and financial technology infrastructure [10] Group 4: International Financial Center Development - The construction of Shanghai as an international financial center requires balancing openness with security, innovation with regulation, and autonomy with collaboration [9] - Financial centers are transitioning from competition to collaborative win-win scenarios, focusing on areas such as green finance standards and regulatory technology [9][10] - The evolution of financial centers is characterized by the integration of capital, data, and talent, positioning Shanghai as a strategic high ground for financial innovation [10]

[Table_Title] 策略研究报告 证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 20 日 以金融制度型改革开放推动高质量发展 ——2025 年陆家嘴论坛学习体会 事件 6 月 18 日上午，2025 陆家嘴论坛正式开幕，本届论坛的主题为"全球经 济变局中的金融开放合作与高质量发展"。 中国人民银行：深化改革，扩大开放，加强全球金融治理 中国人民银行行长潘功胜发表主题演讲时表示，将在上海实施八项创新 政策。这些政策覆盖广泛、内容细致，涵盖金融基础设施建设、跨境贸易金融、 征信监管等多个关键领域。与此同时，措施兼顾当前与长远，既紧扣当前复杂 的国际经贸环境，又着眼未来，服务于更高水平的金融创新与开放，有望推动 上海向更高能级国际金融中心迈进。此次潘功胜行长"关于全球金融治理的若 干思考"的主题演讲主要围绕国际货币体系、跨境支付体系、全球金融稳定体 系、国际金融组织治理四个方面。我们认为，在当前国际经贸变局背景下，潘 功胜行长呼吁调整 IMF 成员国的份额占比结构。这一呼吁具有现实紧迫性和 战略指向，因为 IMF 份额直接决定了成员国在 SDR 普遍分配中的权重。这既 是推进人民币国际化的重要步骤，也是改善当前国际 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海6月20日电（记者杜康、桑彤）6月18日至20日举办的中国国际金融展上，记者了解到，CIPS（Cross-Border Interbank Payments System，即人民 币跨境支付系统）的"朋友圈"不断扩大，截至2025年5月底，CIPS系统参与者共有1683家，其中，直接参与者174家，覆盖全球120个国家和地区。CIPS也从 基础支付通道不断升级，已经深度嵌入参与者现金管理、贸易融资及汇率避险方案中。 "朋友圈"不断扩容 CIPS境外外资直接参与者数量快速增长 作为人民币跨境支付清算的"主渠道"，CIPS系统是经人民银行批准，专司人民币跨境支付清算业务的批发类支付系统，致力于提供安全、高效、便捷和低成 本的资金清算结算服务，是重要的金融市场基础设施。 国际金融展期间，CIPS与6家外资机构举行了直接参与者签约仪式，标准银行、非洲进出口银行、阿布扎比第一银行、吉尔吉斯斯坦Eldik Bank、大华银行 成为CIPS直接参与者，标志着CIPS境外外资直接参与者首次覆盖非洲、中东、中亚及新加坡离岸人民币中心，将进一步便利跨境人民币使用。与中华（澳 门）金融资产交易股份有限公 ...

活动期间，CIPS人民币国际信用证业务在五大国有银行相关海外分行、渣打银行、汇丰银行、开泰银 行、巴西Master Bank等外资银行以及中国五矿、通用技术集团等企业见证下正式开通。信用证是国际 贸易中最常用的结算方式之一，CIPS国际信用证服务是跨境清算公司为便利市场主体以人民币为结算 币种开展国际贸易结算推出的信息服务，该业务开通对优化中国与全球各地区双边人民币贸易结算具有 重要意义。 博通咨询首席分析师王蓬博告诉记者，CIPS正面临前所未有的机遇。随着共建"一带一路"倡议的推进和 中国金融市场的持续开放，越来越多的国家和地区愿意采用人民币进行跨境交易，这为CIPS带来了广 阔的发展空间。同时，CIPS不断优化系统功能和服务体系，提升用户体验，增强了对全球金融机构的 吸引力。 21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 边万莉 上海报道 "越来越多的国家和地区使用本币结算，促进更多货币的国际化使用，单一主权货币主导跨境支付的局 面正逐步改变。"中国人民银行行长潘功胜在2025陆家嘴论坛开幕式上表示。他还称，中国已初步建成 多渠道、广覆盖的人民币跨境支付清算网络。 同日，为期三天的人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS）跨境银企合作 ...

彭博社消息，伦敦正努力吸引更多中国公司在其证券交易所上市，因为伦敦正面临股票市场萎缩和欧洲各地交易枯竭的困境。 "我们需要在伦敦进行更多IPO，"伦敦金融城公司政策主席克里斯·海沃德在上海接受采访时表示。"我们不想失去大西洋彼岸的业务。" 2018年，伦敦与中国人民银行成立了一个工作组，负责监督伦敦的人民币市场。海沃德表示，中国人民银行一直在推动伦敦的全球资产 管理公司发行人民币新产品，以促进人民币的更广泛使用。 他淡化了英国近期对富裕的非定居居民征税以及打击移民措施可能对伦敦作为全球金融中心的吸引力产生的潜在影响，同时敦促努力解 决非定居问题。 中国于2019年与英国启动了股票市场互联互通机制，允许上市公司在对方交易所发行存托凭证。后来，该机制扩展至瑞士和德国。六年 后，只有包括华泰证券在内的少数几家中国公司在伦敦上市，融资总额达66亿美元，交易一直较为低迷。 北京和伦敦今年初承诺深化经济和金融联系，并承诺努力推动中英股市互联互通。 "你必须积极主动地去鼓励企业在你的交易所上市，"海沃德说道，他借鉴了香港今年上半年成功引发首次公开募股（IPO）热潮的经验。 海沃德本周在上海参加了中国年度陆家嘴金融论坛，本周 ...

Core Insights - DBS Bank is expanding its wealth management services in Hong Kong, planning to hire 100 wealth advisors and establish a flagship wealth center by June 2025, despite a backdrop of layoffs in international investment banks and concerns about talent and capital flight from Hong Kong [2][3] - The bank's strategy is based on the belief that the demand for cross-border asset allocation from China's new affluent class will drive the next growth phase in Asia's wealth management market [3][4] - DBS is also applying for a cryptocurrency service license in Hong Kong, aiming to provide digital asset allocation channels to local clients, highlighting the city's clear and forward-looking regulatory framework for virtual assets [2][5] Market Trends - Hong Kong's private wealth management sector saw a net inflow of HKD 341 billion in 2023, nearly doubling year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in the asset platform's functionality [3][4] - The "New Capital Investor Entry Scheme" (CIES) has attracted over 1,200 applications in just one year, expected to bring in HKD 37 billion in direct investment, reflecting renewed interest in Hong Kong as an asset hub [3][4] - The proportion of cross-border clients in DBS's Hong Kong wealth management business has increased from 20% five years ago to nearly 40%, with expectations to exceed 50% in the next two to three years [3][4] Wealth Management Dynamics - Over one-third of new client assets in Hong Kong are sourced from mainland China, with a significant increase in cryptocurrency trading value, which grew by 85.6% in 2023, the highest in East Asia [4][8] - The demand for alternative assets is rising, with high-net-worth clients increasingly interested in integrating digital assets into their portfolios, moving away from traditional investment strategies [8][9] - The shift in client demographics is notable, with the fastest growth among "next-high-net-worth" individuals, defined as those with assets between USD 5 million and USD 10 million, indicating a broader market opportunity for wealth management firms [6][7] Strategic Positioning - DBS's internal strategy includes expanding its wealth management network in Hong Kong and enhancing its service offerings, such as real-time foreign exchange trading capabilities [4][6] - The bank's recent approval to become a member of the China Foreign Exchange Trading System allows it to participate directly in foreign currency borrowing and repurchase transactions, enhancing its role in the internationalization of the RMB [4][6] - The bank's cautious approach to cryptocurrency services aims to meet high-net-worth clients' needs for digital asset allocation while managing risk exposure [5][9] Future Outlook - The integration of stablecoins, asset tokenization, and ETFs in Hong Kong's financial infrastructure is seen as a critical development for wealth management, providing a compliant channel for digital asset allocation [9][10] - The evolving landscape suggests a shift in asset allocation strategies, with a move towards a more diversified approach that includes alternative assets alongside traditional investments [10][11] - Hong Kong's unique position as a bridge between the RMB and global markets is expected to attract more affluent clients seeking transparent and flexible asset management solutions [12][13]