·国务院常务会议：决定核准浙江三门三期工程等核电项目 ·一季度全国规模以上工业企业利润由降转增增幅为0.8% ·商务部等6部门：下调离境退税起退点至200元上调现金退税限额至2万元人民币 ·德国汽车工业协会主席穆勒：鼓励德国车企扩大对华投资 ·京东：未来三个月将招聘10万名全职骑手 ·国务院总理李强4月27日主持召开国务院常务会议，决定核准浙江三门三期工程等核电项目。会议强调，发展核电必须确保安全万无一失，要压实参建单位 和业主单位主体责任，按照全球最高安全标准建设和运营核电机组，持续加强安全监管能力建设，切实兜牢核电安全保障网。（新华社） ·国务院新闻办公室定于2025年4月28日（星期一）上午10时举行新闻发布会，请国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕、人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋、商务部 副部长盛秋平、中国人民银行副行长邹澜介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况，并答记者问。（新华财经） ·国家统计局党组召开扩大会议，传达学习4月25日中央政治局会议精神。会议强调，要加强宏观经济政策措施贯彻落实情况跟踪监测，持续强化重点领域风 险监测预警，及时反映经济运行全局性、趋势性变化。要深入推进适应全国统一大市场 ...

预告：国新办4月28日就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况举行新闻发布会 智通财经4月27日电，国务院新闻办公室定于2025年4月28日（星期一）上午10时举行新闻发布会，请国 家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕、人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋、商务部副部长盛秋平、中国人民银行 副行长邹澜介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况，并答记者问。 ...

4月26日，光大证券首席经济学家高瑞东发布4月25日政治局会议精神学习体会。高瑞东认为，短期政策 强调底线思维，目标是实现"四稳"——也即会议提出的"着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期"。会议 具体围绕着力保民生、大力发展服务消费、加快财政资金落地和用好货币政策，部署了四条政策主线。 高瑞东强调，稳就业放在"四稳"之首，指向就业受到当前决策层的高度重视。后续来看，预计稳就业政 策将持续落地。一方面，通过提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例等，降低企业裁员压力。另一方面，预计 重大项目也将加速落地，以工代赈吸纳沿海就业人群。长期政策则要用深化改革开放的办法解决发展中 的问题，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，持续用力推进关键核心技术攻关，方能在国际经贸斗争中立于 有利地位。"长远看还是东风浩荡"，只要我们保持战略定力，集中精力办好自己的事，时与势终将站到 中国一方。(人民财讯) ...

中国经济，正频频让人感到"超预期"。 一季度经济同比增速5.4%，超出了很多国内外机构的预测，而过去往往在四月底召开的中央政治局会议，来得也比往年更早一 些。 时间本身也是信号。 当前，经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大，在这样的国内外情况下，及时召开会议并向社会传递应对 当前形势的决策判断与工作部署，可以帮助各界更好认识当前经济形势，统一思想认识，也可以更好凝聚共识。 细看中央政治局会议新闻通稿，多处表述之前都很少见。比如这句， "统筹国内经济发展和国际经贸斗争" 。和2018年的"经贸摩 擦"相比，"经贸斗争"反映出中央对当前国际形势的严峻性、长期性和艰巨性的最新判断，也正基于这样的判断，会议提出要"强化 底线思维，充分备足预案，扎实做好经济工作。" 以变应变。 会议提出， "要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期" ，也蕴含不少新意。 "稳就业"排在首位，"对受关税影响较大的企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例"，表明在外部冲击加大的情况下，对就业这个民 生之首的高度重视。 稳企业、稳市场，"多措并举帮扶困难企业"，透露出宏观决策对微观经济运行主体的关切度在进一步提升。在去年9月以来一 ...

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者民生宏观团队 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 陶川 邵翔 张云杰 钟渝梅 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 4月政治局会议的关键点，聚焦在"底线"和"预案"。风急浪高的外部形势更加考验政策层对 于政策节奏和力度的把握，说到底"经贸斗争"比拼的是韧性和耐力，以及随机应变的"后手 棋"，因此政策布局呈现明显的"两步走"特征： "底线"要稳、要兜牢，重点在存量政策加 速，保民生、稳就业、帮企业、化风险；"预案"要足、要"求进"，新工具、新政策、新模 式蓄势待发。 具体看来以下五大信号值得重点关注： 第一，在"经贸斗争"中比拼韧性和耐力。 这是政治局会议中首次提到"经贸斗争"四个字， 早期二十大报告中便强调过要"敢于斗争、善于斗争"，"敢于斗争"比的是耐力和底气，"善 于斗争"比的是制度自信。与2018年的首轮经贸冲突不一样的是，如今的中国能更好地用自 身的确定性去应对外部的不确定性，这从近期美国贸易不确定性指数远远高于中国就得以凸 显。 第二，政策分为"两步走"：第一步看存量政策，"要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to adopt a more proactive and expansive policy stance, focusing on stabilizing expectations, growth, foreign trade, employment, stock market, and real estate, while also introducing new incremental policies [1][5][9]. Economic Outlook - The economic situation is anticipated to be acknowledged as stable with a good start in Q1, but challenges will be highlighted, particularly the complex external environment and insufficient domestic demand growth [3][5]. - The GDP growth rate for Q1 is reported at 5.4%, but indicators like CPI and PPI suggest weak demand characteristics remain unchanged, necessitating policy adjustments [5][9]. Policy Direction - The policy tone is expected to be more aggressive and expansive, with a focus on "real money" measures to stabilize various economic sectors [5][9]. - There is an emphasis on implementing existing policies while also introducing new measures to address external uncertainties [5][9]. Key Focus Areas - Specific areas of focus include central leverage, stabilizing foreign trade and employment, expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, stabilizing the stock market and real estate, and enhancing industrial reform [9][10]. - Potential measures may include interest rate cuts, increased fiscal stimulus, and adjustments to the use of funds for existing policies [9][12]. Trade and Employment - The government is expected to emphasize support for foreign trade enterprises and employment, with significant backing for transitioning exports to domestic sales [11][15]. - The stock market may see increased support, with actions from central financial institutions to stabilize market confidence [11][15]. Infrastructure and Reform - More infrastructure projects are likely to be launched, focusing on urban renewal and water conservancy [12]. - Long-term reform efforts will continue, with attention to national market unification and state-owned enterprise reforms [12][13]. Recent Developments - Recent government actions include high-level visits to Southeast Asian countries to strengthen cooperation, and responses to increased tariffs from the U.S. [13][14]. - The government is actively supporting the transition of foreign trade enterprises to domestic markets through various platforms and initiatives [15][16].

Fiscal Performance - In Q1 2025, national general public budget revenue was CNY 60,189 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%[3] - National general public budget expenditure was CNY 72,815 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%[3] - In March 2025, broad fiscal revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while broad fiscal expenditure increased by 10.1%[4] Budget Completion - Q1 2025 broad fiscal revenue budget completion was 24.6%, slightly above the five-year average of 24.1%[4] - Broad fiscal expenditure budget completion was 21.9%, slightly above the five-year average of 21.8%[4] Debt Financing - In March 2025, the broad fiscal deficit reached CNY -2.3 trillion, higher than the average of CNY -1.2 trillion from 2020 to 2024[4] - The general fiscal deficit was CNY -1.3 trillion, compared to the average of CNY -0.5 trillion during the same period[4] Special Bonds Issuance - New special bonds issuance is expected to accelerate, with CNY 9,748 billion planned for Q2, a 36.5% increase from Q1[5] - CNY 1.3 trillion of special government bonds will be issued starting April 24, 2025, completing by October 10, 2025[5] Policy Measures - The government emphasizes early and rapid implementation of policies during critical time windows to positively influence market expectations[6] - Recent meetings highlighted the need for enhanced consumer confidence and support for housing demand[6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect increased volatility and remain cautious [6][7] - For stock indices, be optimistic about the long - term performance and wait for opportunities to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains strong, and previous long positions can be held [12][13][14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [15][16] - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [17][18][19] - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [20][21] - For ferroalloys, consider manganese silicon out - of - the - money call options at low levels and short - covering opportunities for silicon iron at the bottom, or consider out - of - the - money call options at low levels if there are large spot losses [22][23] - For crude oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [24][25][26] - For fuel oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [27][28][29] - For synthetic rubber, expect weak oscillations [30][31] - For natural rubber, expect weak oscillations [32][33] - For PVC, expect bottom oscillations [34][35][37] - For urea, expect short - term weakness [38][39] - For p - xylene (PX), expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and operate with caution [40][41] - For PTA, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [42] - For ethylene glycol, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [43][44] - For staple fiber, expect bottom adjustments following the cost side, and participate with caution [45] - For bottle chips, expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and pay attention to cost price changes [46][47] - For soda ash, expect short - term weakness [48] - For glass, expect a weak market sentiment [49] - For caustic soda, price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games, and beware of premature market movements [50][51] - For pulp, expect a weak and low - level repeated oscillation [52] - For lithium carbonate, expect a weak operation [53] - For copper, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [54][55] - For tin, expect price oscillations, control risks in the short term, and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56] - For nickel, control risks in the short term, and wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize [57] - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider short - selling at high levels on rebounds [58][59][60] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom support range [61][62] - For palm oil, remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [65][66] - For cotton, wait to short sell the far - month contract at high prices after a rebound [67][68][69] - For sugar, remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] - For apples, consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] - For live pigs, consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] - For eggs, wait for the release of the current market sentiment [81][82] - For corn, remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [85][86] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a differentiated close of Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts having different price changes. The central bank conducted 250.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6] Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw slight oscillations in stock index futures, with different changes in the main contracts of various indices [8][9] - The first - quarter fiscal revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 4.2%. In March, total social power consumption increased by 4.8% year - on - year [9] - Although there are concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts with different price changes. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold [12] - Be optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and previous long positions can be held [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Steel prices are at a low valuation, and the downward space may be limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products. Consider buying at low levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. Consider short - selling on rebounds [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw slight declines in the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. Consider options opportunities based on different situations [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC deepened its production - cut agreement. Consider a long - biased operation [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall. Asian fuel oil demand is unlikely to increase sharply. The sales of marine fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah Port recovered in March. Consider a long - biased operation as the market may be oscillating upward [27][28][29] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of synthetic rubber. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and it may maintain weak oscillations [30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw different price changes in the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. Global supply is expected to increase, demand is affected by tariffs, and it may maintain weak oscillations [32] PVC - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of PVC. Supply pressure eases marginally, demand recovers weakly, and it may oscillate at the bottom [34][35][37] Urea - The previous trading day saw an increase in the main contract of urea. In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Agricultural demand is in a lull, and new production capacity is being released [38] P - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX装置 maintenance and downstream PTA load reduction. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [40][41] PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PTA2509 main contract. Supply and demand fundamentals have few contradictions, and it may oscillate at the bottom [42] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of ethylene glycol. Supply improves due to coal - based plant maintenance, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [43][44] Staple Fiber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the staple fiber 2506 main contract. Downstream demand is weak, and it may adjust at the bottom following the cost side [45] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in the bottle chips 2506 main contract. Raw material prices fluctuate, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [46][47] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2509 contract of soda ash. Production and inventory are at high levels, and the market may remain weak in the short term [48] Glass - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the main 2509 contract of glass. A production line changed its product type. Production lines are at a low level, and inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [49] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the main 2505 contract of caustic soda. Production decreased last week, and demand has slightly improved. Price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games [50][51] Pulp - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of pulp. Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream开工 rates varied. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate. The trade tariff event affects demand, and supply remains high. It is expected to operate weakly [53] Copper - The previous trading day saw an upward oscillation in Shanghai copper. The price increased, and the spot market had limited supply. Consider a long - biased operation [54] Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in tin prices. The Bisie tin mine may resume operation, and Indonesian mining costs have increased. Consumption data is good, and prices are expected to oscillate [56] Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in nickel prices. The US tariff event has a negative impact on the market. Supply is tightened, and cost support is strong, but demand may weaken in the off - season [57] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Supply and demand are imbalanced, and prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [58][59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw declines in soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is abundant. Consider different strategies for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil had a slight decline. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. Remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian products, and domestic inventories are at high levels. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread [65][66] Cotton - The previous trading day saw a weak oscillation in domestic cotton. US cotton export sales increased, and the planting rate is lower than in previous years. Textile exports are affected by tariffs, and domestic demand is weak. Consider short - selling the far - month contract at high prices [67][68][69] Sugar - The previous trading day saw a strong oscillation in domestic sugar. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian sugar production was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is neutral, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures rise and then fall. Cold - storage inventory decreased rapidly, and the market sales are good. Consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] Live Pigs - The previous day saw a slight decline in the national average price of live pigs. Demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] Eggs - The previous trading day saw an increase in the average price of eggs in the main production areas. Egg production capacity is increasing, and consider waiting for the release of market sentiment [81][82] Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the corn main contract. The sales of the current season are almost over, and port inventory is high. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is slightly increasing. Remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of logs. A tropical cyclone may affect shipments. Inventory is relatively neutral, and beware of a rapid decline [85][86]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is currently affected by various factors such as global trade wars, US tariff policies, and domestic economic policies. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [4]. - For futures trading, different strategies are recommended for various commodities according to their supply - demand relationships, price trends, and external factors. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The Chinese government is taking measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, including encouraging enterprises to stabilize employment, supporting foreign investment, and promoting service consumption [4]. - Fiscal revenue in the first quarter decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 4.2% [4]. - In Beijing, the new - start area of real estate development increased by 19.1% year - on - year in the first quarter, and the sales area of new commercial housing increased by 6.2%, but the residential sales area decreased by 2.7% [4]. - The US government is discussing forming a working group to deal with supply - chain crises caused by high tariffs on Chinese goods [4]. 3.2 Futures Market 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines. The market trading volume has shrunk, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The market is affected by policy expectations and economic data [4]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - In the case that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts do not exceed expectations, maintain a moderately optimistic attitude towards ultra - long - term bonds. Pay attention to reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [4]. 3.2.3 Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - Consider taking appropriate profit on short positions. The market has absorbed the expected increase in freight rates during the peak season and supply - side pressure. The freight rate may face different situations in May, with potential short - term tightness and long - term oversupply [4][5]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is under pressure and fluctuates at a low level. The impact of US tariffs, USDA reports, and domestic supply - demand conditions all affect cotton prices. Although there was good export data in March, the overall situation is still not optimistic [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price fluctuates due to factors such as the start of the new sugar - making season in Brazil, the reduction in India's production, and the uncertainty of the supply - demand gap [7][8]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Short palm oil at high prices and long soybean meal at low prices. The production of palm oil is in the seasonal increase period, while the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase in the future [9][10]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the future [10]. - **Apples**: Consider lightly buying near - month contracts at low prices. The spot price is firm, the inventory is low, and the market consumption is in a good state [10]. - **Jujubes**: Hold short positions and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak [10]. - **Pigs**: Consider shorting the LH2507 contract at high prices. The demand is in the off - season, and the supply is increasing [11]. 3.2.5 Energy - **Crude Oil**: The price of crude oil has rebounded slightly. OPEC+ plans to increase production in May, and the US economic slowdown and trade wars affect the demand. The market is in a state of super - decline repair, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly strong [12]. - **Fuel Oil**: The demand for fuel oil is declining, but there is still power - generation demand in the high - sulfur summer. It is expected to fluctuate with the oil price [13]. 3.2.6 Chemicals - **Plastic**: L is expected to fluctuate weakly, while PP can be considered for long positions in the near - month contract after a correction and short positions in the far - month contract [14]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the increase in supply and the weakening of demand [15]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price of caustic soda is expected to be weak after a restocking cycle. The futures price is expected to follow a similar trend [16]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly due to high supply and inventory. The price of glass is expected to be weak as the market expectation is pessimistic [17][18]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is expected to be in the range of 3250 - 3350 yuan without a significant increase in crude oil prices [19]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals are short - term weak. Pay attention to the arrival rhythm in April and the inventory rhythm [20][21]. - **Urea**: Keep a long - position idea for the UR09 contract at low prices as the supply and demand are expected to be strong in the later stage [22]. 3.2.7 Metals - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly, while alumina is expected to oscillate at the bottom and can be considered for long positions at low prices [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Consider an oscillatory approach as the short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand changes [24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be bearish, while polysilicon has over - supply pressure in the medium term [26][27]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline weakly in the long term [27][28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke is expected to be weak in the short term [30]. - **Ferroalloys**: Short manganese silicon at high prices and long silicon iron at low prices [31].

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