吃喝板块今日（8月5日）震荡走高，反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品ETF（515710）持续红盘震荡，截至 发稿，场内价格涨0.17%。 深港证券指出，当前白酒板块处于寻底过程中，短期内行业对白酒市场秩序和批价管控压力上市，二季 度业绩预期或将难以明显转好，年内报表压力或逐季度得到释放。在近期市场整体波动回升情况下，低 估值的顺周期板块有望逐步受到市场重视，建议关注后续新增政策对消费板块的催化。 方正证券表示，今年以来居民消费逐步释放，但市场回升仍需观望。当前食品饮料估值已处相对低位， 高层会议着力强调扩大内需，以民生为抓手，或将催化板块向好，看好底部布局机会。 一键配置吃喝板块核心资产，重点关注食品ETF（515710）。根据中证指数公司统计，食品ETF （515710）跟踪中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，约6成仓位布局高端、次高端白酒龙头股，近4成仓位 兼顾饮料乳品、调味、啤酒等细分板块龙头股，前十权重股包括"茅五泸汾洋"、伊利股份、海天味业 等。场外投资者亦可通过食品ETF联接基金（A类012548/C类012549）对吃喝板块核心资产进行布局。 图片、数据来源：沪深交易所等，截至2025.8.5。 成份股方面 ...

Group 1 - Guizhou Moutai announced a share buyback of 69,600 shares in July, totaling a payment of 99.93 million yuan, with a cumulative buyback of 3.4517 million shares and a total payment of 5.301 billion yuan by the end of July [1][2] - The buyback program was initiated to protect the interests of shareholders and enhance investor confidence, with a planned buyback amount between 3 billion and 6 billion yuan [2] - The company emphasized a shift from "channel-oriented" to "consumer-oriented" strategies to improve service quality and meet consumer demand for high-quality products [3] Group 2 - The price of Moutai products has seen significant declines, with the price of the 25-year Flying Moutai dropping to 1,860 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 16.22% from its peak [4] - The wholesale price of the Moutai Zodiac Snake wine fell to 1,995 yuan per bottle, marking a 47.5% drop from its initial high [3][4] - The overall market for Moutai products is experiencing a downturn, with various products seeing price reductions, indicating a broader trend affecting the brand [4] Group 3 - The A-share market showed a reversal with all three major indices rising, indicating a high level of market activity despite short-term fluctuations [5] - The market's liquidity remains robust, with an increase in financing balance and participation from public and private funds, suggesting a positive outlook for future investments [6] - The focus on "anti-involution" policies and the growth potential in the consumer services sector are highlighted as key themes for future market trends [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market is showing a strong upward trend, with the CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209) leading the market in performance, indicating a growing investor preference for resilient investment tools [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 4, the CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209) rose by 1.36%, reaching a peak increase of 1.55%, outperforming other dividend-focused ETFs [1] - The ETF's price was ¥1.045, with a trading volume of 12.13 million shares and a total transaction value of ¥12.596 million [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The CSI Dividend Quality Index combines "high dividend" and "high quality" factors, focusing on companies with stable dividends, strong profitability, and solid financial health [1] - In a positive market environment, such stocks are more likely to attract concentrated investment due to their robust fundamentals and growth potential, offering better price elasticity and upside compared to a purely high-dividend strategy [1] Group 3: Product Features - The CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209) has a cost structure of "0.15% + 0.05%", which is the lowest in the market, providing a significant cost advantage for long-term holders [1] - The ETF employs a monthly dividend assessment mechanism, enhancing cash flow for investors and improving the overall holding experience [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of high dividends amidst rising uncertainty in the global market, suggesting that stable dividend stocks (such as banks and public utilities) are preferable to cyclical dividend stocks [1] - The Hongguo Dividend ETF (510720) tracks the Hongguo Dividend Index (000151), which selects stocks with high dividend characteristics across various industries, aiming to reflect the overall performance of stable dividend-paying companies [1] - The Hongguo Dividend Index focuses on companies' profitability and dividend stability, typically comprising cash-rich and mature listed companies, leaning towards value investment [1] Group 2 - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai SSE State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF Initiated Link A (021701) and Guotai SSE State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF Initiated Link C (021702) [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the earnings forecast for Far East Horizon (03360) for 2025/2026 largely unchanged, with a target price increase of 10% to HKD 8.8 due to significant valuation discount and attractive dividend yield [1] Financial Performance - For 1H25, Far East Horizon reported a revenue decrease of 4% year-on-year to CNY 17.34 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4% to CNY 2.16 billion, achieving an annualized ROE of 8.66%, up 17 percentage points year-on-year, in line with expectations [2] - The company’s interim dividend payout ratio increased by 4 percentage points year-on-year to 50%, with a stable DPS of HKD 0.25, reflecting a slower growth in DPS compared to profit due to the dilution effect from convertible bonds [2] Financial Business - The financial business revenue for 1H25 increased by 2% year-on-year to CNY 11.09 billion, accounting for 64% of total revenue, with interest income slightly down by 0.4% to CNY 10.66 billion, while consulting fee income surged by 167% to CNY 430 million [3] - The net interest margin expanded, with net interest spread and net interest margin increasing by 11 basis points and 4 basis points year-on-year to 4.06% and 4.51%, respectively [3] - Asset quality remained stable, with non-performing loan ratio slightly decreasing by 0.02 percentage points to 1.05% and the provision coverage ratio remaining stable at 227% [3] Industrial Operations - The industrial operations segment saw a revenue decline of 13% year-on-year to CNY 6.33 billion, accounting for 37% of total revenue, with domestic business under pressure while overseas business experienced rapid growth [4] - The revenue from Hongxin Jianda decreased by 11% year-on-year to CNY 4.35 billion, with net profit down by 87% to CNY 35 million, affected by a decline in domestic market performance [4] - The healthcare segment, Hongxin Health, reported a 15% year-on-year decrease in hospital revenue to CNY 1.8 billion, with net profit down by 28% to CNY 110 million, as the company focuses on optimizing cost efficiency and expanding non-insurance business [4]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains earnings forecasts for FY25/26 largely unchanged, with current trading at 0.67x/0.63x P/B for FY25/26, and a target price increase of 10% to HKD 8.8, reflecting a significant discount in valuation and attractive dividend yield [1] Financial Performance - For 1H25, company reported a revenue decline of 4% year-on-year to CNY 17.34 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4% to CNY 2.16 billion, achieving an annualized ROE of 8.66%, up 17 percentage points [2] - The dividend payout ratio increased by 4 percentage points year-on-year to 50%, with a stable DPS of HKD 0.25, indicating a slower growth in DPS compared to profit growth due to the dilution effect from convertible bonds [2] Financial Business - Financial business revenue grew by 2% year-on-year to CNY 11.09 billion, accounting for 64% of total revenue, with interest income down by 0.4% to CNY 10.66 billion and consulting fee income up by 167% to CNY 430 million [3] - The net interest margin expanded, with net interest spread and net interest margin increasing by 11 basis points and 4 basis points to 4.06% and 4.51%, respectively [3] - Asset quality remained stable, with non-performing loan ratio slightly decreasing by 0.02 percentage points to 1.05% and the provision coverage ratio remaining stable at 227% [3] Industrial Operations - Industrial operations revenue decreased by 13% year-on-year to CNY 6.33 billion, with a revenue share decline of 4 percentage points to 37% [4] - The overseas business of Hongxin Jianda experienced rapid growth, while domestic market downturn affected overall performance, with Jianda's revenue down 11% to CNY 4.35 billion and net profit down 87% to CNY 35 million [4] - The healthcare segment focused on optimizing management capabilities and cost efficiency, with hospital revenue down 15% to CNY 1.8 billion and net profit down 28% to CNY 110 million, while operational costs decreased by 11% to CNY 1.47 billion [4]

【导读】回顾周末大事，汇总十大券商最新研判 中国基金报记者 泰勒 1.美国黑天鹅！7月非农就业人数增加7.3万人，不及市场预期 美国7月非农就业人数增加7.3万人，预估为增加10.4万人，前值为增加14.7万人。数据创9 个月以来新低。 更令人担忧的是5月和6月新增就业合计下修25.8万（相当于2个月新增就业近乎归0，当然不 排除7月就业继续下修的可能）。数据公布后，市场对美国经济下行的担忧演绎到了极致，美 元立刻跳水，几乎消化了7月底以来的一半涨幅，美股大跌，而9月降息概率也从此前的不降 息飙升至70%以上。 2.消息人士称主要产油国计划9月继续增产 8月3日，据央视新闻报道，据路透社援引消息人士的话报道，沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉克和阿联 酋等欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的 八个主要产油国 ，计划在8月3日举行的会议上批准9月 再 次大幅增产，日均增产54.8万桶 。 欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的8个主要产油国2023年11月宣布日均220万桶的自愿减产措 施，此后减产措施多次延期，于2024年12月延长至2025年3月底。8国今年3月决定自4月1 日起逐步增加石油产量，以回撤自愿减产措施。之后，这些主要产油国7月日均 ...

Core Viewpoint - Far East Horizon's 1H25 performance met expectations with a revenue decline of 4% year-on-year to 17.34 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 4% year-on-year to 2.16 billion yuan, resulting in an annualized ROE increase of 17 percentage points to 8.66% [1] Financial Performance - The company's financial business revenue increased by 2% year-on-year to 11.09 billion yuan, accounting for 64% of total revenue, with interest income slightly down by 0.4% to 10.66 billion yuan and consulting fee income up by 167% to 430 million yuan [1] - The net interest margin expanded with net interest spread and net interest margin increasing by 11 basis points and 4 basis points to 4.06% and 4.51% respectively, while asset quality remained stable with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.05% [1] Dividend Policy - The company increased its interim dividend payout ratio by 4 percentage points year-on-year to 50%, maintaining a dividend per share (DPS) of 0.25 HKD, indicating a strong dividend yield despite slower growth in DPS compared to profit growth due to dilution from convertible bonds [1] Industry Operations - The company's industrial operations revenue decreased by 13% year-on-year to 6.33 billion yuan, with a decline in domestic business offset by rapid growth in overseas operations [1] - The healthcare segment saw a revenue decline of 15% year-on-year to 1.8 billion yuan, with net profit down by 28% to 110 million yuan, as the company focused on optimizing cost efficiency and expanding non-insurance business [1] Valuation and Forecast - The company maintains its earnings forecast for 25/26e, currently trading at 0.67x/0.63x P/B for 25/26e, with a target price adjustment of 10% to 8.8 HKD, reflecting a significant discount in valuation and attractive dividend expectations [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Shenhua plans to acquire group assets, and coal prices are expected to rise in August. Domestic power plants maintain daily coal consumption, leading to continued price increases. The coal association has advocated for controlling production and improving quality, while the Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. The coking coal sector may see marginal improvements in performance due to environmental factors affecting capacity utilization, with supply and demand gradually balancing in the second half of the year [6][42]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector declined, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.81 percentage points, with a drop of 4.56% as of August 1, 2025. Among 37 stocks, Chengzhi Co. had the smallest decline at 0.89% [2]. - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 6.64 million tons from July 25 to July 31, 2025, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9% but a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. The total coal inventory was 28.87 million tons, down 5.5% week-on-week and up 15.1% year-on-year [2]. Price Trends - As of August 1, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 665 CNY/ton, up 0.15% week-on-week. The price of imported thermal coal was 763 CNY/ton, up 0.13% week-on-week. Prices at various ports, including Qinhuangdao and Huanghua, also saw increases [3]. - For coking coal, the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was stable at 1,650 CNY/ton, while prices for metallurgical coke increased by 3.4% for first-grade and 3.94% for second-grade [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cumulative coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 146.43 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. Power and chemical industries saw coal consumption changes of -2.7% and +16.9% respectively [2][41]. - The chemical industry’s total coal consumption was reported at 21.39 million tons as of August 1, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and turnaround coking coal companies. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company for thermal coal, and Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [6][42].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3559 points and trading volume decreasing to 1.59 trillion yuan, while northbound funds are increasing their positions in banks and photovoltaic sectors [1] - Despite a four-month contraction in manufacturing PMI, the non-manufacturing PMI remains above 50, indicating resilience in consumption and services, suggesting a mixed economic outlook [1] Policy and Funding Dynamics - The central bank is maintaining liquidity, while the Ministry of Finance has reinstated VAT on newly issued government bonds starting August 8, creating a balanced policy approach that avoids excessive capital turnover while allowing market speculation [3] - Northbound funds have shown a "seesaw" effect, with a net outflow of 25.6 billion yuan on August 1, but significant purchases in high-quality stocks like Ningbo Bank and Longi Green Energy, indicating a shift from overvalued consumer stocks to high-dividend and renewable energy sectors [3] - Margin trading balances have decreased to 1.93 trillion yuan, with leveraged funds moving away from semiconductors and telecommunications towards military and public utility sectors, suggesting a defensive positioning ahead of potential market adjustments [3] Technical Analysis and Market Signals - The Shanghai Composite Index has been oscillating between 3500 and 3600 points for nearly a month, with trading volume declining after 47 consecutive days above 1 trillion yuan, resembling a mid-marathon fatigue [4] - Key signals to monitor include northbound fund inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan for three consecutive days, trading volume returning above 1.8 trillion yuan, and July economic data, particularly social financing and PMI, exceeding expectations [4] Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are advised to allocate 60% of their portfolio to high-dividend banks and public utilities, 20% to policy-supported sectors like AI and semiconductors, and the remaining 20% to oversold consumer and pharmaceutical stocks for potential rebounds [5] - Short-term traders are cautioned against chasing stocks at their peak and are encouraged to wait for pullbacks to find better entry points [5] Sector Performance Insights - On August 1, there was a net outflow of 71.2 billion yuan from major funds, with significant sell-offs in computer and electrical equipment sectors, while AI leaders like 360 and Cambridge Technology attracted capital, indicating a shift from speculative trading to performance-based investment [6] - The current market environment suggests that companies with solid fundamentals will attract investment during the upcoming earnings disclosure period [6]