中信五风格-周期★☆☆ 金融工程组 张婧婕 Z0022617 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 1 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 基金市场回顾： 操作评级 股债策略收益小幅分化 金融工程周报 权益市场风格 2026年1月5日 周度报告 截至2025/12/31当周，通联全A（沪深京）、中证综合债与南 华商品指数周度涨跌幅分别为-0.31%、-0.20%、-0.71%。 公募基金市场方面，近一周股债策略收益表现分化，短期纯债 策略表现偏强，普通股票策略指数小幅收跌，中性策略产品涨 多跌少；商品方面贵金属ETF净值有所回调，黄金ETF调整幅 度大于白银，有色与能源化工ETF延续上行走势。 中信五风格方面，上周周期风格收涨，其余风格收跌；风格轮 动图显示近期稳定与消费风格相对强弱边际回落，五风格相对 强弱动量均环比走低。公募基金池方面，近一周消费与金融风 格基金平均表现跑赢基准，从基金风格系数走势来看市场对消 费风格偏移度有所回升；本周拥挤度指标相比上周有所升高， 成长风格基金拥挤度提升至历史中高分位区间。 Barra因子：近一周 ...

最近两个交易日，聚酯品种表现较强。本周五，PX和PTA期货主力合约开盘后增仓上行，双双创下近3个月以来的新高。 库存方面，12月PTA维持去库态势，1至2月聚酯开工负荷大概率季节性下降，有小幅累库预期，但整体累库压力明显偏低，短期基本面的稳健表现为行情 提供了有力支撑。 PTA2605 ▲ TA2605 期货 主力 夜盛 2.03% 74.24万 4992 振幅 高 메레 4980 4822 117.3万 4894 持仓 俱 昨结 158 3.28% 4896 +87088 开 今结 日增 l 相关ETF 2 能源化工 ETF 1.215 0.75% > 日K 周K 月K 五日 分时 更多。 0 均线 ▼ 日线 MA5:4792 10:4745 20:4754 30:4749 筹码 5028 4992-> 4873 4718 4563 L7 -4444 2025/10/20 2025/11/20 2025/12/22 其中，PX期货价格创下自3月以来的阶段高点，PTA期货价格成功突破年内高点4900元/吨。在当前原油和化工品市场整体表现偏弱的背景下，PX和PTA的 价格表现引发市场关注。 强预期成为行情"发动 ...

A股低开高走，截至收盘，上证指数涨0.41%，深证成指涨0.84%，创业板指涨0.97%，北证50涨 0.31%。全市场成交额2.12万亿元，较上日成交额放量2335亿元。 板块题材上， 电网设备、贵金属、半 导体设备板块活跃，零售、海南板块调整。 ETF方面，半导体设备板块全线拉升，华夏基金科创半导体ETF、华泰柏瑞基金科创半导体设备 ETF和科创半导体设备ETF鹏华分别涨5%、4.98%和4.52%。智能电网板块表现强势，华夏基金电网设 备ETF、广发基金电网ETF分别涨3.49%、3.26%。隔夜道指收涨，鹏华基金道琼斯ETF涨2.84%。港股 久违反弹，广发基金港股通非银ETF涨2.84%。 能源化工板块走低，能源化工ETF跌1%，化工ETF跌0.54%。隔夜美股科技股走弱，纳指科技 ETF、纳指科技ETF分别跌0.85%和0.69%。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun ...

Market Overview - The market has shown signs of recovery with all three major indices closing in the green. The commercial aerospace sector continues to perform strongly, while the electric grid equipment sector has seen a rapid increase. Semiconductor equipment stocks have also been active, although the retail sector has experienced a decline [1]. ETF Performance - The following ETFs related to the semiconductor sector have shown significant gains: - Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170.SH) increased by 5% with an estimated scale of 3.3287 billion - Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710.SH) rose by 4.98% with an estimated scale of 0.7738 billion - Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516.SZ) gained 3.88% with an estimated scale of 6.4818 billion - Electric Grid Equipment ETF (159326.SZ) increased by 3.26% with an estimated scale of 0.1159 billion [2]. Semiconductor Industry Insights - Institutions indicate that semiconductor equipment is positioned upstream in the supply chain, serving as a core industry supporting chip manufacturing and packaging. The year 2025 is anticipated to be a significant year for the growth of domestic semiconductor equipment orders and performance realization. The evolution of storage technology towards 3D, driven by AI models, along with the expansion projects of domestic storage giants, is expected to usher in a new phase of rapid growth opportunities for the domestic semiconductor equipment supply chain [2]. AI Applications and Consumer Electronics - Recent developments include Alibaba's launch of AI glasses and Doubao's introduction of an AI mobile assistant, suggesting a potential acceleration in breakthroughs within edge AI applications. Brokerages recommend focusing on the consumer electronics supply chain related to edge AI, as well as the domestic computing power supply chain, including chips, storage, servers, and the release of advanced process capacities [3].

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, the communication ETF led the market with a remarkable increase of 96.11%, showcasing strong momentum in the AI era [1] - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector emerged as a significant winner, with various ETFs in this category showing substantial gains: Hong Kong innovative drug ETF fund up 87.42%, Hong Kong innovative drug ETF up 86.62%, and Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF up 85.22% [1] - The resource sector also performed well, with mining ETF up 82.32%, non-ferrous metals ETF up 76.83%, and rare metals ETF up 76.58%, driven by rising global inflation expectations [1] Group 2: ETF Performance Data - The top-performing ETFs from January to November 2025 include: - Communication ETF: 96.11% [2] - Hong Kong innovative drug ETF fund: 87.42% [2] - Hong Kong innovative drug ETF: 86.62% [2] - Communication equipment ETF: 85.24% [2] - Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF: 85.22% [2] - The worst-performing ETFs included: - Energy chemical ETF: -14.78% [5] - S&P Consumer ETF: -11.40% [5] - Alcohol ETF: -5.36% [5] Group 3: Fund Flows - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF saw the highest net inflow of 553.05 billion yuan, indicating strong market confidence in the Hong Kong tech sector [8] - Other notable net inflows included short-term bond ETF at 436.42 billion yuan and gold ETF at 406.63 billion yuan [8] - Conversely, significant outflows were observed in the Sci-Tech 50 ETF, with a net outflow of 463.46 billion yuan, indicating pressure on growth sectors [12]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity ETF market has experienced significant growth in both scale and performance, indicating its transition from a niche option to a core strategic asset in asset allocation [3][4]. Group 1: Growth in Scale and Performance - The total scale of commodity ETFs has increased by over 200% since the beginning of the year, with a total net inflow of 966.2 billion yuan, bringing the total scale to 2,267 billion yuan [5][7]. - Gold ETFs have emerged as the main driver of this growth, with an average scale increase of 4.8 times this year, significantly outperforming traditional equity and bond assets [7][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The explosive growth of commodity ETFs is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic conditions, market structure, and investor awareness, with gold ETFs particularly benefiting from their inflation-hedging and asset preservation functions [9][10]. - The price of gold has surged, reaching a peak of over 4,100 USD per ounce, which has been a key factor in the strong performance of gold ETFs, with returns close to 50% this year [9][21]. Group 3: Investment Value Analysis - Gold ETFs dominate the commodity ETF market, accounting for over 95% of the total scale, making it essential to analyze future gold price trends for assessing the investment value of commodity ETFs [17][18]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to support gold prices, as historical trends show that a rate-cutting cycle typically leads to a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices [18][19]. Group 4: Selection and Allocation Strategies - For investors focused on asset preservation and risk hedging, gold ETFs are the preferred choice, while those looking to capitalize on economic cycles may consider allocating to industrial metal or energy ETFs [24][25]. - A diversified allocation strategy is suggested, with varying proportions of gold ETFs, industrial metal ETFs, and energy ETFs based on the investor's risk tolerance and market outlook [25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of the commodity ETF market appears promising, with ongoing product innovation expected to solidify commodity ETFs as a standard allocation in investment portfolios, especially in times of global uncertainty [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The operation rating for CITIC Five Styles - Finance is ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending October 24, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 3.42%, -0.03%, and 0.94% respectively. In the public - fund market, enhanced index strategies led the gains with a weekly return of 3.89%. Neutral strategies had more gains than losses. Among commodities, precious - metal ETFs pulled back, while soybean - meal and non - ferrous - metal ETFs had a slight rebound, and energy - chemical ETFs stabilized [4]. - All CITIC five styles closed up last Friday, with the growth style leading in returns. The style rotation chart showed that the cyclical and consumer styles weakened compared to the previous period, and the growth style had a significant increase in the indicator momentum. In the public - fund pool, financial and cyclical style funds had better excess performance in the past week. The deviation of products from the consumer style increased marginally, and the overall market congestion indicator continued to rise this week, with the growth and financial styles in a historically high - congestion range [4]. - In the neutral strategy, the stock - index basis showed a marginal recovery trend during the week. The IC contract recovered to around 0.5 times the standard deviation above the three - month average. The average premium rates of the spot - index ETFs corresponding to IC and IM were relatively high, in the top 80% quantile range of the past three months [4]. - Among Barra factors, the medium - and long - term momentum factor had a better return performance this week, with a weekly excess return of 1.70%. The residual volatility and ALPHA factors retreated, and the winning rates of the dividend and leverage factors improved. The cross - section rotation speed of factors continued to increase this week, currently in the top 80% quantile range of the past year [4]. - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the growth and financial styles recovered marginally this week, while the cyclical and stable styles declined. The current signal favors the financial style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 1.45%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was - 0.98% [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fund Market Review Recent Market Returns - The weekly, monthly, quarterly, and semi - annual returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond (net), and Nanhua Commodity are presented in a chart [6]. - The maximum drawdowns of the main public - fund strategy indices in the past three months and their weekly returns are also shown in charts [6]. CITIC Style Index - The net - value trends of CITIC style indices (finance, cycle, consumption, growth, stability) from September 24 to October 23, 2025, are presented in a chart [8][9]. - The relative rotation chart of CITIC style indices shows the relative strength and relative - strength momentum of different styles in different time periods (recent week, last week, recent month, recent three months, recent six months, recent year) [10][11]. - The excess - return performance of fund style indices in different time periods is provided in a table [12]. - The fund - style congestion chart shows the congestion levels of cycle, growth, consumption, and finance styles from September 28 to October 26, 2025 [13]. Barra Factors - The style preference of Barra single factors is within the range of 0 - 1, with a higher value indicating a stronger preference. The excess - return performance of Barra single - factor style strategies and the net - value trends of Barra single - factor style excess since this year are presented in charts [14][16][18].

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a "★☆☆" rating to CITIC's five-style stability, indicating a slightly bullish view with limited operability in the market [5]. Core Viewpoints - In the week ending October 17, 2025, Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index had weekly returns of -3.39%, 0.21%, and -1.14% respectively. In the public fund market, equity long strategies retreated, pure bonds outperformed, neutral strategy products showed mixed performance, and among commodities, precious metal ETFs rose while non-ferrous metal ETFs declined, and energy chemical and soybean meal ETFs continued to weaken [5]. - Among CITIC's five styles, the financial style rose last week while others fell. The style rotation chart shows that the growth and consumption styles weakened marginally in terms of relative strength, and the financial style increased significantly in terms of indicator momentum. In the public fund pool, cyclical style funds had better excess performance in the past week, and other style funds underperformed the index on average. The product's deviation from cyclical and consumption styles increased marginally, and the overall market congestion indicator increased marginally this week, with the cyclical style currently in a historically high congestion range [5]. - In the neutral strategy, the stock index basis showed a marginal recovery trend last week. The IM contract rebounded from below the -2 standard deviation of the three - month average to within one standard deviation, and the premium rates of the corresponding spot index ETFs of IH and IF were in the top 20% quantile range of the past three months [5]. - Among Barra factors, the residual momentum factor had better performance in the past week with a weekly excess return of 2.49%, while the momentum and capital flow factors had excess drawdowns. The win - rates of the profitability and leverage factors improved. The cross - section rotation speed of factors increased significantly this week and is currently in a relatively high quantile range in the past year [5]. - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the consumption and financial styles recovered marginally this week, the cyclical style declined, and the current signal favors the stable style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.52%, with an excess return of 1.45% compared to the benchmark equal - weighted allocation [5]. Summary by Directory Fund Market Review - In the public fund market, equity long strategies had a drawdown in the past week, pure bonds had better returns, neutral strategy products showed mixed performance, precious metal ETFs in commodities had large increases, non - ferrous metal ETFs had a return correction, and energy chemical and soybean meal ETFs' net values continued to weaken [5]. - Among CITIC's five styles, the financial style rose last week while others fell. Cyclical style funds had better excess performance in the public fund pool, and other style funds underperformed the index on average. The product's deviation from cyclical and consumption styles increased marginally, and the overall market congestion indicator increased marginally this week, with the cyclical style in a historically high congestion range [5]. - In the neutral strategy, the stock index basis recovered marginally last week, and the premium rates of the corresponding spot index ETFs of IH and IF were in the top 20% quantile range of the past three months [5]. - Among Barra factors, the residual momentum factor had a weekly excess return of 2.49%, the momentum and capital flow factors had excess drawdowns, and the win - rates of the profitability and leverage factors improved. The factor cross - section rotation speed increased significantly and is in a relatively high quantile range in the past year [5]. - According to the style timing model, the consumption and financial styles recovered marginally this week, the cyclical style declined, and the style timing strategy had a return of 0.52% last week, with an excess return of 1.45% compared to the benchmark [5]. Recent Market Returns - The weekly, monthly, quarterly, and semi - annual returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond (net), and Nanhua Commodity are presented in the report, along with data on the establishment scale of public funds in the past year, the maximum drawdown of major public fund strategy indices in the past three months, and the weekly returns of major public fund strategy indices [7]. CITIC Style Index - The net value trends of CITIC's financial, cyclical, consumption, growth, and stable style indices are shown, as well as the relative rotation chart of these style indices, which reflects the relative strength and momentum of different styles in different time periods [8][9]. - The excess return performance of CITIC style - based fund style indices in different time periods (weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi - annual, annual) is presented, along with the congestion levels of different styles (excluding the stable style due to data limitations) [10][11]. Barra Factors - The preference levels of Barra single - factors (ranging from 0 - 1) are shown, indicating the degree of preference for different factors. The excess return performance of Barra single - factor style strategies in different time periods (weekly, monthly) is also presented, as well as the excess net value trends of Barra single - factor styles since this year [13][14][17].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93 points, with a monthly increase of 7.97% [1] - The ChiNext Index rose to 2890.13 points, achieving a monthly gain of 24.13% [1] - The STAR 50 Index reached 1341.31 points, marking a significant monthly increase of 28% [1] ETF Highlights - Communication, artificial intelligence, and chip ETFs were the biggest beneficiaries, with several products seeing monthly gains exceeding 40% [1] - The Communication ETF topped the monthly performance chart with a gain of 45.89% [2] - The AI ETF followed closely with a monthly increase of 45.67% [2] - The Communication Equipment ETF recorded a monthly rise of 42.88% [2] Top Performing Stocks - Key stocks driving the Communication ETF's performance included Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, with monthly gains of 63%, 88%, and 87.9% respectively [3] - Industrial Fulian also saw a significant monthly increase of 55%, entering the trillion-yuan market cap club [3] Other Notable ETFs - The Consumption Electronics 50 ETF rose by 32% in August, while the Rare Earth ETF and Energy Storage Battery ETF saw monthly gains of 29% and 27% respectively [3] - The STAR Growth 50 ETF, STAR Growth ETF, and STAR Chip Design ETF all performed strongly, with monthly increases exceeding 36% [3] Underperforming ETFs - Over 80 ETFs experienced declines in August, with the S&P Consumption ETF leading the drop at a monthly decrease of 5.06% [4][5] - The Energy Chemical ETF fell by 3.53% in August and has seen a cumulative decline of over 9% this year [5] - Dividend-focused ETFs, including bank and Hong Kong dividend ETFs, also showed poor performance amid high market risk appetite [5]

Group 1: Stock Market Overview - The total trading amount for Shanghai Stock Connect today was 190.607 billion, while Shenzhen Stock Connect totaled 213.937 billion [1] - The top traded stocks in Shanghai were WuXi AppTec, followed by Haiguang Information and Cambricon Technologies [1] - In Shenzhen, the leading traded stock was Eastmoney, with CATL and Zhongji Xuchuang in second and third places respectively [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The sectors with the highest net inflow of funds included Nonferrous Metals, Food and Beverage, and Steel, while sectors like Electronics and Computers experienced significant outflows [3][4] - Nonferrous Metals led with a net inflow of 39.22 billion, followed by Food and Beverage with 28.39 billion [3] - The Electronics sector had the largest net outflow at -192.66 billion, followed by Computers at -168.40 billion [4] Group 3: Individual Stock Performance - The top individual stocks with net inflows included Baogang Co. with 18.77 billion, Lingyi Technology with 11.39 billion, and Dongfang Precision with 11.33 billion [5] - Conversely, Haiguang Information saw the largest net outflow at -18.30 billion, followed by SMIC at -17.19 billion [6] Group 4: ETF Trading Activity - The top ten ETFs by trading amount included Hong Kong Securities ETF at 23.21281 billion, and Sci-Tech 50 ETF at 12.3618 billion [8] - The ETF with the highest increase in trading amount compared to the previous trading day was Energy Chemical ETF, which surged by 225.56% [8] Group 5: Futures Market - In the futures market, both long and short positions increased for the IH and IF contracts, while the IC contract saw an increase in long positions [10] Group 6: Institutional Activity - Institutional buying was notable in stocks like Jinli Permanent Magnet, which saw a 20% increase and received 1.42 billion from three institutions [12] - Conversely, stocks like Jin Feng Technology experienced significant selling, with 3.78 billion sold by institutions [13]