Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a one-star rating (★☆☆) for the CITIC Five-Style - Stable, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities in the market [2] Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending March 13, 2026, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), China Bond Composite Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.48%, -0.12%, and 5.18% respectively [3] - In the public fund market, only the short-term pure bond index rose in the past week. The ordinary stock strategy index fell 0.71%, with a narrower decline compared to the previous week. The neutral strategy products had more declines than increases. The pure bond strategy outperformed the convertible bond strategy index. In the commodity sector, the Energy and Chemical ETF continued to rise, up 14.24%, the soybean meal ETF rose 7.74%, and the gold ETF had a slight pullback [3] - In the CITIC Five-Style, the stable and consumption styles rose in the past week, while the rest fell. The style rotation chart showed that the relative strength of the financial style strengthened recently, and the relative strength momentum of the growth and cyclical styles increased month-on-month. Among the public fund pools, the cyclical style fund index outperformed the benchmark last week, with a weekly excess return of 1.83%. The market's deviation from the growth and financial styles rebounded. The market congestion index changed little compared to last week, and the cyclical style congestion rose to a relatively high percentile range in the past year [3] - In terms of Barra factors, the short-term momentum factor performed strongly in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 2.97%. The residual volatility factor continued to weaken. In terms of win rate, the valuation and liquidity factors rebounded slightly, while the medium- and long-term momentum factor declined. The cross-sectional rotation speed of factors decreased marginally, currently in the middle percentile range in the past year [3] - According to the latest score of the style timing model, the financial style rebounded this week, and the current signal favors the stable style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 3.16%, with an excess return of 2.97% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Recent Market Returns - The weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), China Bond Composite Index (net), and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.48%, -0.12%, and 5.18% respectively [3] Public Fund Market - Only the short-term pure bond index rose among major strategies in the past week. The ordinary stock strategy index fell 0.71%, with a narrower decline than the previous week. The neutral strategy products had more declines than increases. The pure bond strategy outperformed the convertible bond strategy index [3] - In the commodity sector, the Energy and Chemical ETF continued to rise, up 14.24%, the soybean meal ETF rose 7.74%, and the gold ETF had a slight pullback [3] CITIC Five-Style - The stable and consumption styles rose in the past week, while the rest fell [3] - The relative strength of the financial style strengthened recently, and the relative strength momentum of the growth and cyclical styles increased month-on-month [3] - The cyclical style fund index outperformed the benchmark last week, with a weekly excess return of 1.83% [3] - The market's deviation from the growth and financial styles rebounded, and the cyclical style congestion rose to a relatively high percentile range in the past year [3] Barra Factors - The short-term momentum factor performed strongly in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 2.97% [3] - The residual volatility factor continued to weaken. The valuation and liquidity factors rebounded slightly in terms of win rate, while the medium- and long-term momentum factor declined [3] - The cross-sectional rotation speed of factors decreased marginally, currently in the middle percentile range in the past year [3] Style Timing Model - The financial style rebounded this week, and the current signal favors the stable style [3] - The return of the style timing strategy last week was 3.16%, with an excess return of 2.97% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of including commodities, particularly gold, in investment portfolios to mitigate risks during geopolitical shocks, as evidenced by historical data showing commodities consistently perform well during such events [4][20][36]. Group 1: Geopolitical Events and Market Reactions - A study by J.P. Morgan analyzed 36 major geopolitical events from 1940 to 2022, revealing that stock market performance typically rebounds after initial declines following such shocks [8][12]. - The only significant exception was the 1973 oil embargo, which led to a 37% drop in the S&P 500 over 12 months due to the U.S.'s heavy reliance on imported oil [16][19]. - In contrast, the oil price shock from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict saw prices spike but return to lower levels relatively quickly, highlighting the U.S.'s improved energy independence due to the shale revolution [19][20]. Group 2: Asset Performance During Geopolitical Shocks - During geopolitical shocks, commodities like gold and oil tend to show positive returns, while stocks and bonds often decline [24][25]. - Historical data indicates that gold averages a 1.8% increase during such events, while stocks and bonds average a -1.6% decline [24][25]. - The article notes that central banks have significantly increased gold purchases as a hedge against geopolitical risks, with U.S. central bank purchases quadrupling post-2022 conflict [27]. Group 3: Portfolio Composition and Strategy - The article advocates for a three-legged investment strategy: stocks for growth, bonds for interest, and commodities for stability during crises [29][30]. - It suggests that many investors currently lack adequate commodity exposure, particularly gold, which is essential for a balanced portfolio [30][36]. - The timing of commodity purchases is crucial; the article advises against buying during high volatility and suggests establishing commodity positions during stable periods [32][33].

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices opened high and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.17%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.98% [1] - The North China 50 Index rose by 1.36%, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 22,702 billion yuan, an increase of 1,067 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,600 stocks in the three markets experienced gains [1] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included video production, optical fiber, dyes, photovoltaics, CPO, cultivated diamonds, computing power leasing, semiconductors, commercial aerospace, and smart grids [1] - The oil and gas extraction and service sectors lagged behind in performance [1] ETF Performance - The film and television sector saw strong gains, with the Guotai Fund Film and Television ETF and the Yinhua Fund Film and Television ETF rising by 7.5% and 6.89%, respectively [1] - The CPO sector experienced a significant surge, with the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETFs from Huashan, Guotai, and Fuguo increasing by 6.98%, 6.59%, and 6.59%, respectively [1] - The artificial intelligence sector was active, with the Science and Technology Innovation ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF from Yongying rising by 5% [1] Bond ETF Performance - The oil and gas extraction and service sectors showed weakness, with the Energy and Chemical ETF from Jianxin declining by 0.08% [2] - Bond ETFs were in the red, with the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF from Fuguo and the 10-Year Local Government Bond ETF from Haifutong falling by 0.05% and 0.04%, respectively [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering the 4100-point mark, closing up 1.41% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 106.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] ETF Performance - The film and AI ETFs led the market with significant gains, with the Guotai Film ETF (516620) surging 7.50% and the Huazhang AI ETF (159279) rising 6.98% [2] - Other AI-related ETFs also performed well, with several exceeding a 6.50% increase, indicating strong investor interest in AI applications and computing infrastructure [2] - The new energy sector also showed positive movement, with the Invesco Battery ETF (159757) up 2.20% and the Fortune Lithium Battery ETF (561160) rising 2.12% [2] ETF Declines - Commodity and bond ETFs experienced slight adjustments, with the maximum decline being less than 0.1%, indicating a stable market environment [3][4] Trading Activity - The Short-term Bond ETF (211360) had a trading volume of 52.734 billion yuan, leading the market, followed by the Yin Hua Daily ETF (211880) at 17.104 billion yuan [5][7] - The Huaxia Brazil ETF (159100) had a turnover rate of 211.93%, reflecting a high level of speculative trading in cross-border products [6][7] New ETF Launch - The E Fund Shanghai Composite Index ETF (530060) is set to launch on February 10, 2026, with 321 million shares issued, tracking the overall performance of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [8]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a collective increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.71% [1] - The North Exchange 50 Index saw a slight decline of 0.05% [1] - The total trading volume across the three markets was 29,215 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,592 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 1,900 stocks in the three markets closed in the green [1] Sector Performance - The leading sectors in terms of gains included precious metals, semiconductors, cultivated diamonds, photovoltaic equipment, insurance, military equipment, CPO, and AI-related sectors [1] - Conversely, sectors that experienced declines included biopharmaceuticals, coal mining and processing, chemicals, batteries, pork, liquor, tourism and hotels, and power grid equipment [1] ETF Performance - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with the Huatai-PB Fund's China-Korea Semiconductor ETF rising by 4.51%, the Huaxia Fund's Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF by 3.59%, and the Huatai-PB Fund's Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF by 3.52% [1] - The Sci-Tech 100 Index saw an afternoon surge, with the Guotai Fund's Sci-Tech 100 ETF increasing by 3.41% [1] - The CPO sector also showed resilience, with the Huabao AI ETF rising by 2.76% [1] - The Guotai 2000 ETF from ICBC fell by 4.93% [1] - The vaccine sector declined, with the vaccine ETF and the vaccine ETF from Fuguo both dropping by 4% [1] - The energy sector weakened, with the coal ETF and energy chemical ETF both decreasing by 2% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The operation rating for CITIC Five-Style - Stable is ☆☆★ [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending on January 23, 2026, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 1.75%, 0.21%, and 2.08% respectively [3] - In the public fund market, the enhanced index strategy performed strongly in the past week, with a weekly return of 1.82%. Most neutral strategy products had positive returns, and the convertible bond strategy outperformed the pure bond strategy. Among the commodity ETFs, the return of non-ferrous metals ETFs had a slight correction, while the return of energy and chemical ETFs rebounded, with a weekly return of 3.48% [3] - Among the CITIC Five-Styles, the financial style declined in the past week, while the other styles rose. The style rotation chart showed that the relative strength of the stable and cyclical styles strengthened recently, and the relative strength momentum of the financial and cyclical styles increased month-on-month [3] - In the public fund pool, the financial and consumer fund style indexes outperformed the benchmark in the past week, with the financial style fund index having an excess return of 2.72%. The market's deviation from the consumer style continued to decline according to the trend of the fund style coefficient. The crowding indicator decreased slightly this week, and the cyclical and financial styles are currently in a historically high crowding range [3] - Among the Barra factors, the medium - long - term momentum and residual volatility factors had better performance in the past week, with weekly excess returns of 1.98% and 1.69% respectively. The returns of the profitability and leverage factors continued to decline. In terms of win - rate, the low - volatility factors strengthened marginally, and the dividend factor performed weakly recently. The cross - section rotation speed of the factors decreased month - on - month this week and is currently in a low - percentile range in the past year [3] - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the growth style decreased month - on - month this week, and the current signal favors the stable style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 1.81%, with an excess return of 0.56% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fund Market Review - The enhanced index strategy in the public fund market performed strongly in the past week, with a weekly return of 1.82%. Most neutral strategy products had positive returns, and the convertible bond strategy outperformed the pure bond strategy. Among the commodity ETFs, the return of non - ferrous metals ETFs had a slight correction, while the return of energy and chemical ETFs rebounded, with a weekly return of 3.48% [3] CITIC Five - Style Analysis - Among the CITIC Five - Styles, the financial style declined in the past week, while the other styles rose. The style rotation chart showed that the relative strength of the stable and cyclical styles strengthened recently, and the relative strength momentum of the financial and cyclical styles increased month - on - month [3] - In the public fund pool, the financial and consumer fund style indexes outperformed the benchmark in the past week, with the financial style fund index having an excess return of 2.72%. The market's deviation from the consumer style continued to decline according to the trend of the fund style coefficient. The crowding indicator decreased slightly this week, and the cyclical and financial styles are currently in a historically high crowding range [3] Barra Factor Analysis - Among the Barra factors, the medium - long - term momentum and residual volatility factors had better performance in the past week, with weekly excess returns of 1.98% and 1.69% respectively. The returns of the profitability and leverage factors continued to decline. In terms of win - rate, the low - volatility factors strengthened marginally, and the dividend factor performed weakly recently. The cross - section rotation speed of the factors decreased month - on - month this week and is currently in a low - percentile range in the past year [3] Style Timing Model - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the growth style decreased month - on - month this week, and the current signal favors the stable style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 1.81%, with an excess return of 0.56% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The operation rating for CITIC Five-Style - Cycle is ☆☆★ [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the week ending December 31, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.31%, -0.20%, and -0.71% respectively [3] - In the public fund market, the performance of stock and bond strategies diverged in the past week. The short-term pure bond strategy performed strongly, the ordinary stock strategy index declined slightly, and most neutral strategy products rose. In the commodity market, the net value of precious metal ETFs corrected, with the adjustment of gold ETFs greater than that of silver. The non-ferrous and energy chemical ETFs continued to rise [3] - Among the CITIC five styles, the cyclical style rose last week, while the other styles declined. The style rotation chart shows that the relative strength of the stable and consumer styles has declined marginally recently, and the relative strength momentum of the five styles has decreased month-on-month [3] - In the public fund pool, the average performance of consumer and financial style funds outperformed the benchmark in the past week. From the trend of the fund style coefficient, the market's deviation from the consumer style has increased. This week, the congestion indicator has increased compared with last week, and the congestion of growth style funds has risen to the middle and high percentile range of history [3] - Among the Barra factors, the medium- and long-term momentum factor had a better performance in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 0.89%. The excess return of the profitability factor weakened, the winning rate of the liquidity and capital flow factors strengthened marginally, and the volatility factor weakened slightly during the week. This week, the cross-sectional rotation speed of the factors continued to decline, falling to the middle and low percentile range in the past year [3] - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the growth style has recovered month-on-month this week, and the current signal favors the cyclical style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was -1.41%, and the excess return compared with the benchmark balanced allocation was -0.76% [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Market Returns - The weekly, monthly, quarterly, and semi-annual returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond (net), and Nanhua Commodity are presented in the report [5] - The weekly returns of major public fund strategy indices are also provided [5] - The establishment scale of public fund products in recent years is shown in the report [5] - The maximum drawdown of major public fund strategy indices in the past three months is presented [5] CITIC Style Index - The net value trend of the CITIC style index from December 1 to December 30, 2025, is shown, including the financial, cyclical, consumer, growth, and stable styles [7] - The relative rotation chart of the CITIC style index shows the relative strength and momentum of different styles in the past week, last week, past month, past three months, past six months, and past year [9] - The excess return performance of the fund style index in different time periods is presented [10] - The congestion of different fund styles is shown, with the data as the percentile in the past year [11] Barra Factor - The preference of Barra single-factor styles this week is presented, with the preference range from 0 to 1, where a value closer to 1 indicates a higher degree of preference [12] - The excess return performance of Barra single-factor style strategies in different time periods is shown [14] - The excess net value trend of Barra single-factor styles in the past year is presented [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of polyester products, particularly PX and PTA futures, has drawn market attention as they reached new highs in nearly three months amid a generally weak oil and chemical market [1][4]. Price Performance - PX futures prices have reached a stage high not seen since March, while PTA futures successfully broke through the annual high of 4900 yuan/ton [4]. - The recent trading days have shown a significant increase in trading volume and open interest for PTA, indicating strong market activity [2]. Market Drivers - The core driver of the current price increase is the optimistic market expectation for the polyester industry chain in 2026 [5]. - Analysts predict a notable differentiation in the polyester production capacity landscape by 2026, with an expected increase of approximately 260,000 tons in PX capacity, while PTA is projected to have no new capacity added [6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for PX is expected to grow by 4.5%, leading to a supply gap before the new PX capacity is released in Q3 2026, making PX the strongest fundamental product in the polyester chain [6]. - Current supply-side constraints, driven by policies aimed at reducing overcapacity, may become a norm in the coming years, optimizing the supply-demand structure [6]. Short-term Outlook - Despite expectations of weaker terminal demand, recent increases in polyester production and stable operating rates among downstream enterprises have provided solid support for PTA's fundamentals [7]. - The inventory pressure for PTA is manageable, and the production load is expected to remain high, even with seasonal declines anticipated in early 2026 [7]. Price Elasticity and Profit Distribution - PX exhibits stronger price elasticity compared to PTA, with limited new capacity expected for PX from 2024 onwards, while PTA's capacity growth is anticipated to slow down [8]. - Currently, PX captures the majority of the industry's profits, while PTA processing fees have remained low since mid-2025, although improvements are expected in the future [8]. Seasonal Trends - Historical data indicates a high probability of price increases for PX and PTA during December and January, despite these months typically being off-peak for polyester and weaving terminals [8]. - Market behavior tends to anticipate spring maintenance and demand recovery, leading to price increases even in traditionally weaker months [8]. Cautionary Notes - While there is potential for PX prices to maintain a strong upward trend, caution is advised as current valuations may already reflect many long-term bullish factors [9]. - Continuous monitoring of capacity deployment, policy changes, and downstream demand recovery is essential for future market assessments [10].

Market Performance - The A-share market opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.84%, the ChiNext Index up by 0.97%, and the Northern Stock 50 gaining 0.31% [1] - The total market turnover reached 2.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 233.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Active sectors included electric grid equipment, precious metals, and semiconductor equipment, while retail and Hainan sectors experienced adjustments [1] - The semiconductor equipment sector saw significant gains, with ETFs such as Huaxia Fund's Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF, Huatai-PB Fund's Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF, and Penghua's Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF rising by 5%, 4.98%, and 4.52% respectively [1] - The smart grid sector performed strongly, with Huaxia Fund's Electric Grid Equipment ETF and GF Fund's Electric Grid ETF increasing by 3.49% and 3.26% respectively [1] International Market Influence - The overnight Dow Jones index closed higher, contributing to a 2.84% increase in Penghua Fund's Dow Jones ETF [1] - Hong Kong stocks showed resilience, with GF Fund's Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF also rising by 2.84% [1] Declining Sectors - The energy and chemical sectors declined, with the Energy Chemical ETF falling by 1% and the Chemical ETF decreasing by 0.54% [2] - Overnight, U.S. tech stocks weakened, leading to a drop of 0.85% in the NASDAQ Technology ETF and a 0.69% decrease in another NASDAQ Technology ETF [2]

Market Overview - The market has shown signs of recovery with all three major indices closing in the green. The commercial aerospace sector continues to perform strongly, while the electric grid equipment sector has seen a rapid increase. Semiconductor equipment stocks have also been active, although the retail sector has experienced a decline [1]. ETF Performance - The following ETFs related to the semiconductor sector have shown significant gains: - Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170.SH) increased by 5% with an estimated scale of 3.3287 billion - Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710.SH) rose by 4.98% with an estimated scale of 0.7738 billion - Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516.SZ) gained 3.88% with an estimated scale of 6.4818 billion - Electric Grid Equipment ETF (159326.SZ) increased by 3.26% with an estimated scale of 0.1159 billion [2]. Semiconductor Industry Insights - Institutions indicate that semiconductor equipment is positioned upstream in the supply chain, serving as a core industry supporting chip manufacturing and packaging. The year 2025 is anticipated to be a significant year for the growth of domestic semiconductor equipment orders and performance realization. The evolution of storage technology towards 3D, driven by AI models, along with the expansion projects of domestic storage giants, is expected to usher in a new phase of rapid growth opportunities for the domestic semiconductor equipment supply chain [2]. AI Applications and Consumer Electronics - Recent developments include Alibaba's launch of AI glasses and Doubao's introduction of an AI mobile assistant, suggesting a potential acceleration in breakthroughs within edge AI applications. Brokerages recommend focusing on the consumer electronics supply chain related to edge AI, as well as the domestic computing power supply chain, including chips, storage, servers, and the release of advanced process capacities [3].