Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in 2024 [1][3]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to show stable performance in 2024, with a projected increase in net profit growth and a reduction in liability pressure. As of April 17, 2024, 26 listed banks reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.88% and a net profit growth of 5.29% in Q4 2024 [3][12]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies such as potential interest rate cuts and increased investment in state-owned banks to support economic stability amid external uncertainties [3][27]. - The banking sector is likely to attract risk-averse capital due to its defensive characteristics and stable dividends, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [3][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamentals - In Q4 2024, 26 listed banks achieved a total revenue of 5.21 trillion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.36%. However, net profit reached 1.98 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.01% [12][23]. - The net interest income for 2024 decreased by 2.03%, but showed a positive growth of 0.39% in Q4, indicating a recovery trend [17][19]. - Loan issuance for 2024 reached 158.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.97%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to 2023 [17][23]. 2. Policy Environment - The report emphasizes the need for further policy support to stabilize the economy, particularly through potential interest rate cuts and increased focus on domestic demand [27][36]. - The government aims to enhance consumer spending and investment through various initiatives, including special bonds to support consumption and infrastructure projects [42][44]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to inject 500 billion yuan into major state-owned banks to strengthen their capacity to serve the real economy [45][46]. 3. Financial Environment - The banking sector is expected to continue receiving inflows of risk-averse capital, particularly as external market conditions remain volatile [3][37]. - The report notes that the average net interest margin for 26 listed banks in 2024 was 1.64%, a decrease from the previous year, but with expectations of gradual recovery as loan re-pricing pressures ease [19][21]. - The average non-performing loan ratio for these banks improved to 1.15% in 2024, indicating better asset quality management [23][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum oxide main contract fluctuates weakly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, supply may slightly shrink and demand is optimistic. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines below the 0 - axis with expanding green bars. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a fluctuating manner, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract fluctuates, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, it is in a stage of both supply and demand increasing and inventory steadily decreasing. The option market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with converging green bars. It is also recommended to trade with a light position in a fluctuating manner, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 19,930 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the closing price of the aluminum oxide futures main contract is 2,563 yuan/ton, down 2,563 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,434 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars. The LME aluminum inventory is 419,575 tons, down 2,000 tons [2]. - The difference between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum is 70 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for aluminum oxide, it is 4 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,020 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the aluminum oxide spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,860 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum premium/discount is 19,920 US dollars/ton, up 130 US dollars; the basis for electrolytic aluminum is 90 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the basis for aluminum oxide is 94 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region is 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The national aluminum oxide monthly production is 747.52 million tons, down 3.23 million tons. The monthly demand for aluminum oxide (electrolytic aluminum part) is 723.72 million tons, up 76.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of aluminum oxide is 30 million tons, up 9 million tons; the monthly import volume is 1.12 million tons, down 3.05 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of primary aluminum is 221,820.89 tons, up 21,622.20 tons; the monthly export volume is 8,699.85 tons, up 5,273.31 tons. The monthly production of aluminum products is 598.17 million tons, down 12.49 million tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 51 million tons, up 14 million tons; the monthly production of aluminum alloy is 165.50 million tons, up 10.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles. The national real - estate climate index is 93.96, up 0.17 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 18.20%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.30%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the main - contract at - the - money IV is 10.58%, down 0.0036. The option put - call ratio is 0.59, down 0.0205 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the implementation of established policies, including a special consumption - boosting action and using 5 trillion yuan of national - level investment funds this year. A series of measures to stabilize employment and the economy will be introduced one by one [2]. - The central bank will prevent exchange - rate over - adjustment risks, maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates and create new structural monetary - policy tools [2]. 3.8 Aluminum Oxide Viewpoint Summary - Due to the low - level operation of the aluminum oxide spot price, some producers' profits are inverted, leading to production cuts or maintenance, and the domestic production is expected to slightly shrink. The electrolytic aluminum plants have good profit conditions and strong production willingness, so the demand for aluminum oxide is optimistic [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The domestic electrolytic aluminum plants have completed the resumption of production, with high - level operation of production capacity and high operating rates. The cost has slightly decreased, so the supply is stable. The downstream aluminum - product processing enterprises may benefit from domestic - demand expansion policies, and the domestic electrolytic - aluminum social inventory is steadily decreasing [2].

格有所支撑。操作上建议，玻璃主力合约2509，1100附近轻仓做多，止损价格1080，注意操作节奏及风险 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 控制。操作上建议，目前纯碱主力合约2509，1380附近可以尝试空单，止损价格1400元，注意操作节奏及 免责声明 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-04-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1376 | 12 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1108 | -14 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 268 | 26 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1018097 | -18679 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1150500 | -11339 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -134013 | 20595 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -172739 | 16791 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3840 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the banking sector, emphasizing the investment value of high-dividend, low-valuation bank stocks, particularly focusing on China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [1][2]. Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau's recent meeting has signaled a more proactive macroeconomic policy, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, which are expected to enhance liquidity and support the banking sector [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of structural monetary policy tools aimed at supporting technological innovation, consumption expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade, which will improve banks' ability to serve the real economy [2][3]. - The banking sector is currently facing uncertainties due to U.S.-China trade negotiations, but the high dividend yield of bank stocks remains attractive for investors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector Performance - The banking index decreased by 0.32% this week, underperforming the Wind All A Index, which rose by 1.15% [11][12]. - Among different types of banks, state-owned banks saw an average increase of 0.89%, while joint-stock banks experienced an average decline of 1.28% [11][14]. Market Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 500 billion yuan, indicating a continued effort to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [3][29]. - The report notes a decrease in SHIBOR overnight rates to 1.57%, reflecting a broader trend of declining interest rates in the interbank market [32][33]. Bond Market - The bond market saw a total financing of 22,454.7 billion yuan this week, with a net financing of 1,215.2 billion yuan, indicating a decrease compared to the previous week [40][44]. - The report highlights that the issuance of financial bonds and medium-term notes has increased, contributing to the overall financing activity in the bond market [40][44]. Individual Bank Performance - Agricultural Bank of China recorded the highest stock price increase among state-owned banks at 2.40%, while joint-stock banks generally underperformed, with an average decline of 1.28% [14][27]. - The report also notes that the average P/B ratio for state-owned banks is 0.69X, indicating potential undervaluation in the sector [17][27].

4月29日国内金价快报：周一国际黄金市场反弹上涨，国内各大金店整体价格依然持稳。周生生金店价 格小涨5元/克，最新标价1031元/克，暂为最高价金店。菜百黄金还是没什么变化，保持1005元/克，为 最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差26元/克，价差稍稍扩大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 今日金价 单位 变动幅度 涨跌 老庙黄金价格 1022 元/克 0 平 六福黄金价格 1028 元/克 0 平 周大福黄金价格 1028 元/克 0 周六福黄金价格 1028 元/克 0 平 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年4月29日） 金店报价 金至尊黄金价格 1028 元/克 0 平 平 老凤祥黄金价格 1025 元/克 0 平 潮宏基黄金价格 1028 元/克 0 平 0 平 周生生黄金价格 1031 元/克 5 涨 菜百黄金价格 1005 元/克 上海中国黄金价格 1006 元/克 0 平 周大生黄金价格 1028 元/克 0 平 在关注黄金走势之余，再让我们来看一下铂金价格。以周生生黄金为例，今日黄金饰品价格上涨5元/ 克，铂金饰品上涨6元/克，报价408元/克。如果大家还想知道其他金店的铂金报价，欢迎在评论区留言 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Data - The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net daily investment of 103 billion yuan after 176 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open - market operations will mature, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the funds due on Thursday and Friday will be postponed to the first trading day after the holiday [4] - The meeting mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", creating new structural monetary policy tools, and establishing new policy - based financial tools, but the urgency of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has decreased [4] Group 2: Bond Market - DR001 closed at 1.45% with a - 1.96bp change, DR007 at 1.75% with a 3.59bp change, GC001 at 1.90% with a 21.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.85% with a 7.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.75% with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.60% with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.46% with a 1.00bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.54% with a - 0.50bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65% with a - 1.25bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.29% with a - 3.00bp change [3] Group 3: Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 fell 0.14% to 3781.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.09% to 2651.2, the CSI 500 fell 0.51% to 5598.3, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.05% to 5877.1. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.0564 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.2 billion yuan from last Friday [5] - Industry sectors generally declined, with real estate services, real estate development, food and beverage, tourism and hotels, engineering consulting services, decoration and building materials, and commercial department stores leading the decline, while only banks, games, jewelry, steel, and power industries rose [5] - The Politburo meeting on April 25 released limited incremental information on aggregate policies, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies and the refinement of support policies in specific areas [6] - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the strong Q1 economic data in China reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation is to hold a light position in stock index futures and wait for the market direction to become clear. Considering the high overseas uncertainty during the May Day holiday and the low option volatility, a double - buying strategy for stock index options can be considered before the holiday [6] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - quarter, next - month, current - month, and next - quarter contracts are 10.41%, 9.29%, 7.33%, and 5.51% respectively [7] - The IH premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 4.46%, 6.03%, 5.41%, and 3.56% respectively [7] - The IC premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 15.32%, 15.66%, 11.48%, and 9.61% respectively [7] - The IM premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 16.86%, 17.35%, 13.18%, and 11.40% respectively [7]

2025 年 4 月 29 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银期货将偏强震荡 多晶 硅、碳酸锂、原油、PTA、PVC、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2506 阻力位 3748 和 3768 点，支撑位 3716 和 3705 点；IH2506 阻力位 2640 和 2650 点，支撑位 2612 和 2605 点；IC2506 阻力位 5510 和 5561 点，支撑位 5443 和 5420 点；IM2506 阻力位 57 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, although the price has rebounded due to the fading of the tariff - war sentiment, the overall nickel element is in surplus with strong nickel ore prices, and there is significant upward pressure. Despite favorable policy stimuli, the economic slowdown is inevitable. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on price increases [3]. - For the stainless steel market, after the sentiment of the Sino - US tariff war fades, the price has returned. With strong nickel ore prices and increased nickel - iron costs, along with reduced production of 300 - series stainless steel, and recent policy stimuli, but weak demand, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell and hedge on price increases [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On April 29, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 125,250 yuan/ton and closed at 124,690 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 201,951 lots, and the open interest was 70,157 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel opened lower and oscillated downward on the night session of Friday, rebounded slightly after the opening of the day session but continued to fall, and then oscillated and rebounded after getting support. It closed with a medium - sized negative line. The trading volume and open interest increased compared with the previous trading day [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and the People's Bank of China will use a moderately loose monetary policy and may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. The first - phase nickel ore domestic trade base price in Indonesia in May is expected to drop by about 1 US dollar, while the domestic trade premium will rise by 2 US dollars to 26 - 27 US dollars, with an overall increase of about 1 US dollar. Currently, nickel ore prices remain firm [2]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation decreased by about 1,625 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of mainstream brands also decreased. The nickel price oscillated weakly, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. The spot trading of refined nickel was generally average, and most spot premiums and discounts remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 24,632 (- 168.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 201,426 (- 1,044) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term strategy is mainly range - bound operations, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on price increases. For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operations, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On April 29, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,725 yuan/ton and closed at 12,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 186,219 lots, and the open interest was 103,278 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated sideways slightly after the opening of the night session, fell slightly after the opening of the day session and then oscillated upward, closing with a medium - sized positive line. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared with the previous trading day [4]. - Similar to the nickel market, relevant policies were announced, and the situation of Indonesian nickel ore prices was the same. Nickel - iron prices were 970 - 975 yuan/nickel. The production of 300 - series stainless steel in April and May decreased [4]. - In the spot market, the stainless steel market oscillated upward, the cold - rolled price rebounded slightly, and the trading of low - priced resources was okay, meeting just - in - time demand. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 12,950 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 355 to 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 968.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. - **Strategy** - The short - term strategy is range - bound oscillations, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on price increases. For single - side trading, it is neutral, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | 推荐理由 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一两市主要指数延续震荡行情，成长类指数偏弱。两市成交额 1.05 万亿元，变 | | | | | | | 化不大。中证 1000 指数收 5877 点，跌 62 点，跌幅-1.05%；中证 500 指数收 5598 | | | | | | | 点，跌 28 点，跌幅-0.51%；沪深 300 指数收 3781 点，跌 5 点，跌幅-0.14%；上证 | | | | | | | 50 指数收 2651 点，涨 2 点，涨幅 0.09%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是游戏 | | ETF、 | | | | | 银行 ETF 基金、科创芯片 50ETF、绿电 ETF、钢铁 ETF，跌幅居前的是房地产 ETF、 | | | | | | | 机器人 ETF 易方达、建 ...

晨报 成材 成材：缺乏驱动 钢价整理 逻辑：中国人民银行副行长邹澜表示，中国人民银行将用好用足适度 宽松的货币政策，根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降 息，保持流动性充裕，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业稳增长 重点领域精准加力，做好金融支持。4 月 28 日 Mysteel 统计 76 家独立电 弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3351 元/吨，日环比增加 2 元/吨，平均利 润为-69 元/吨，谷电利润为 36 元/吨，日环比增加 11 元/吨。4 月 21 日 -4 月 27 日，全球船厂共接获 16 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 10 艘新 船订单；韩国船厂接获 6 艘新船订单。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 29 日 重要声明： 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资 ...