12月19日，央行开展7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，保持不变。7天逆回购利率保持不变，意味着12月22日LPR下调的概率非常低。 2024年，央行行行长潘功胜表示：未来可考虑明确以央行的某个短期操作利率为主要政策利率，目前看，7天期逆回购操作利率已基本承担了该功能。 12月22日（节假日顺延）将是年内最后一次降息窗口（1年期和5年期LPR）。股民和购房者非常关注这一天降不降息。 原因很简单，每年的1月1日是很多房贷或其它贷款调息日，如果上年LPR下调，那么很多房贷或其它浮动贷款利率也会下调。 不过，最新的迹象显示：12月22日1年期和5年期LPR下调的概率非常低。本月降息与否悬念似乎揭开了。 那么下一个降息的窗口在哪里？ 可能在明年上半年，但在降息之前，降准可能先行开始，有不少学者预测，降息可能在明年1月份开启。 最近，学习时报头版刊文提到："十五五"时期年均经济增长速度达到5%左右是完全有条件的。 国家明确提出：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。坚持内需主导，全方位扩大国内需求，要推动投资止跌回稳。 后来，7天期逆回购操作利率成为LPR定价的锚。由于明后两天是周末，7天期逆回购操作利率在LPR调整窗 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance with 2 - 3 potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the use of structural tools will be further strengthened. The issuance scale of interest - bearing bonds will be nearly 36 trillion yuan, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will mainly fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.9% [4][5]. - In 2025 (January - November), the monetary policy was moderately loose, the issuance of all types of interest - bearing bonds increased year - on - year, and the yield of interest - bearing bonds showed an "N" shape, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield exceeding 1.9% at its highest [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monetary Policy and Liquidity Monitoring - **Monetary Policy Characteristics**: In 2025, due to external uncertainties and domestic issues such as weak domestic demand, the monetary policy was moderately loose. In May, a simultaneous reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut occurred, and structural tools continued to play a role. Since April, the central bank has made net monthly capital injections, and in October, the central bank resumed Treasury bond trading operations [6][7]. - **Funds Rate**: The central funds rate fluctuated downward, and the spread between DR007 and R007 remained low. In the first quarter, the funds were relatively tight; in the second quarter, after the reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, the funds rate declined; from July to November, the central funds rate further declined [12]. 3.2 Interest - Bearing Bond Market Operation Characteristics - **Issuance Scale**: From January to November 2025, the issuance scale of interest - bearing bonds reached 30.66 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 17.9%. The issuance of all types of interest - bearing bonds increased, and the issuance of special Treasury bonds was completed [14]. - **Yield Trend**: The yield of interest - bearing bonds showed an "N" shape. In the first half of the year, the yield declined quarter - by - quarter; in the second half, it fluctuated upward due to factors such as the increase in risk appetite. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield exceeded 1.9% at its highest [19]. 3.3 2026 Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance. Considering the challenges faced by the economy, the policy will continue to exert force, focusing on releasing policy effectiveness and strengthening coordination with fiscal policy [26]. - There will be 2 - 3 potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026. It is estimated that there will be 1 interest rate cut of 10BP in 2026, possibly in the first quarter, and 1 - 2 reserve requirement ratio cuts, likely in the middle or fourth quarter. The use of structural tools will be further strengthened [27][28]. 3.4 2026 Interest - Bearing Bond Outlook - **Issuance Scale**: In 2026, the issuance scale of interest - bearing bonds will be nearly 36 trillion yuan. The government bond supply will further increase, with the Treasury bond issuance scale reaching 17.4 trillion yuan, local bond issuance scale reaching 11.6 trillion yuan, and the policy financial bond issuance scale reaching nearly 7 trillion yuan [30][31][32]. - **Yield Trend**: In 2026, interest - bearing bonds will likely maintain low - interest - rate operation. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield will corely fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.9%, with the low point likely between 1.6% - 1.7% and the high point between 1.9% - 2.0%. However, there may be unexpected fluctuations due to internal and external uncertainties [34][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with an increase in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper futures main contract is 92,600 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 11,735 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 60 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 231,253 lots, up 7,279 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Copper are - 33,302 lots, down 996 lots. The LME copper inventory is 166,925 tons, up 325 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 89,389 tons, up 484 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warehouse receipt is 44,650 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 92,240 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the Yangtze River non - ferrous market 1 copper spot price is 92,395 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 45.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis is - 360 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 9.8 dollars/ton, down 0.28 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.08 dollars/kiloton, down 0.22 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 82,500 yuan/metal ton, up 300 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 83,200 yuan/metal ton, up 300 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 1,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the northern processing fee is 1,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unforged copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social copper inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 62,990 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative value of power grid infrastructure investment completed is 4,824.34 billion yuan, up 446.27 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment completed is 78,590.9 billion yuan, up 5,028.2 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215,000 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 18.1%, up 0.1%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.18%, down 0.02%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 19.27%, up 0.0112. The at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.28, up 0.0181 [2] Industry News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" starts with a moderately loose monetary policy aiming for economic growth and price recovery, with expected reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts next year. The Fed official indicates a 50 - 100 basis - point interest rate cut space. In November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]

新华社北京12月18日电 《经济参考报》12月18日刊发记者向家莹采写的文章《解码中央经济工作会议 丨货币政策延续"适度宽松" "灵活高效"降准降息可期》。文章称，中央经济工作会议明确要求，"要 继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，并提出将"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具""保持流动性充 裕""引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域"。 一系列部署不仅为2026年货币政策的制定与实施确立了清晰的主基调，也预示了新一年政策发力的具体 路径：在维持流动性合理充裕背景下，通过适时降准降息等总量工具与聚焦重点领域的结构性工具协同 发力，并加强与财政政策的协调配合，共同为经济持续回升向好营造适宜的货币金融环境。 总量工具保持灵活 "要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"的提法，与此前中央政治局会议"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适 度宽松的货币政策"的定调一脉相承，进一步明确了新一年宏观政策的总体方向。 业界专家普遍认为，"适度宽松"的基调并非简单重复，其内涵在新形势下更为丰富和精准。民生银行首 席经济学家温彬指出，一方面，它意味着货币政策将延续支持性取向，为经济持续复苏与高质量发展营 造必要的流动性环境。另 ...

值得关注的是，去年中央经济工作会议对降准降息的相关表述为"适时降准降息"。中信证券首席经济学 家明明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时认为，相较于去年的表述，会议提及"灵活高效运用降准降息等 多种政策工具"，表述重点更多落在政策的效率和主动性上。 在天风证券（601162）固收首席分析师谭逸鸣看来，会议明确提出"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策 工具"，预计2026年的总量宽松政策仍有一定空间，"灵活高效"意味着中国人民银行将根据经济增长、 物价走势及外部环境的变化，择机、小幅地使用价格型工具。预计2026年上半年，中国人民银行或实施 一次降息，幅度在10个基点左右，不排除一季度落地的可能性。此外，还可能实施一次降准，幅度在50 个基点左右。 光大证券固收首席分析师张旭认为，未来一两个月内降准或降息落地的概率较高。降准和降息既有共同 的作用，也受到共同的制约。补充银行体系流动性是降准特有的作用，而降息还受到银行净息差的制 约，在不同阶段宜根据经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况选择不同的政策工具。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬对《证券日报》记者表示，"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币 政策的重要考量"反映出在后续货币政 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discussed the financial outlook for various sectors, including banking, insurance, and commodities, with a focus on the Chinese market and the Thai e-commerce and logistics sector [1][9][15]. Key Points and Arguments Financial Sector Insights - The central economic work conference highlighted expectations for the financial sector, indicating a shift towards maintaining reasonable interest rates rather than further reductions [2][4]. - Loan growth is stabilizing at around 6%, reflecting a rational approach to lending and a focus on managing financial risks [3][5]. - The manufacturing investment has slowed down significantly, with November showing a growth rate of only 1.7%, which is below the overall demand growth of over 4% [4][5]. - The financial environment is expected to remain supportive, with stable loan rates and a gradual rebound in bank profit margins anticipated for the next year [5][9]. Insurance Sector Outlook - The insurance industry is viewed positively, with a strong growth potential underestimated by investors. The growth rate of household financial assets is around 12% [7][8]. - The competitive landscape for insurance products is robust, with a significant opportunity for valuation increases as the market stabilizes [8][9]. Commodities and Mining Sector - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support commodity prices, with a forecast of a weaker dollar in the first half of the year [10][11]. - Demand for copper and aluminum is projected to increase significantly, driven by energy storage needs, with estimates suggesting a 50% increase in demand for initial energy [10][11]. - Supply constraints are anticipated for both copper and aluminum due to production cuts and reduced output from smelting facilities [12][13]. Thai E-commerce and Logistics Market - G2 is projected to become the largest player in Thailand's logistics market, surpassing competitors in market share and achieving profitability [15][17]. - The Thai e-commerce market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 30% over the past three years, driven by platforms like TikTok [15][16]. - The competitive landscape in Thailand's logistics sector is intense, with significant cost advantages for established players like G2 [16][17]. Airline Industry Performance - The airline sector is witnessing a healthy recovery in business demand, with significant growth in passenger turnover reported for major airlines [18][19]. - The increasing load factors and recovery in business travel are expected to enhance pricing power for airlines, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [19]. Additional Important Insights - The discussion emphasized the importance of managing financial risks, particularly concerning hidden debts and real estate sector challenges [6]. - The overall sentiment in the financial and commodities sectors is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on sustainable growth and risk management strategies [5][6][10].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight strengthening on December 17, with long-term bonds performing better, as government bond futures rose across the board and interbank bond yields fell by approximately 2 basis points [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.63% to 112.14, the 10-year main contract up by 0.10% to 108.005, and the 5-year main contract up by 0.06% to 105.84 [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" decreased by 2.5 basis points to 2.254%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" yield fell by 0.95 basis points to 1.843% [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down by 3.12 basis points to 4.143% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.1 basis points to 1.974% [4]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 28-day and 91-day government bonds at 1.1220% and 1.2957%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.09 and 2.69 [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 468 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.275% [6]. Institutional Views - Huaxi Fixed Income noted that the bond market's short-term fundamentals are not the main pricing driver, with concerns over redemption fee regulations and long-term bond supply overshadowing expectations for loose monetary policy [7]. - Zheshang Bank indicated that the overall liquidity is stable, and there are no significant adverse policies or events affecting the bond market, suggesting that further declines are unlikely [8]. - CITIC Securities mentioned that seasonal factors may lead to a slight contraction in the scale of wealth management products, but this is expected to recover quickly in early January [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is showing resilience under policy coordination, with a focus on balancing short-term recovery and long-term transformation as it enters the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Group 1: Economic Policy and Consumption - The shift in consumption policy from "incremental stimulation" to "structural optimization" is necessary for high-quality economic development, addressing diminishing marginal returns of traditional policies [5] - Key mechanisms for sustainable consumption growth in 2026 include establishing a virtuous cycle of income and consumption, optimizing supply-side reforms, and enhancing urban-rural integration [6] - To alleviate preventive savings pressure and boost consumption potential, policies must address housing, education, and healthcare costs while promoting income growth and improving the consumption environment [8] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy framework under the "15th Five-Year Plan" allows for multiple avenues of action, including flexible use of tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and open market operations to maintain liquidity [9] - There is still room for interest rate cuts to lower financing costs for banks and support long-term funding [9] - Structural monetary policy tools can be upgraded to enhance credit support for key sectors, ensuring effective allocation of financial resources [10][11] Group 3: Exchange Rate and External Factors - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate moderately in 2026, supported by economic recovery and improved trade structures, despite external uncertainties [12] - Internal factors such as economic resilience and increased demand for yuan-denominated assets contribute to this trend, while external factors include global economic disparities and potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy [13] - Challenges to maintaining a stable exchange rate include capital flow volatility and geopolitical risks, which could lead to irrational short-term fluctuations [14] Group 4: Internal and External Circulation - Strengthening "internal circulation" and promoting "high-level opening up" are complementary strategies that can enhance economic resilience and attract global resources [14] - A clear strategic plan is essential for coordinating these two approaches, ensuring systematic and stable policy implementation while managing external risks [15]

从银行视角出发，对于2026年降准降息，天风证券研报有如下判断：1、预计2026年LPR下调10— 20bp，上半年有望落地，第二季度概率相对更大。第一，预计2026年银行息差压力相较于2025年明显缓 解，能为LPR下调打开一定空间。第二，优质企业新发放贷款利率存在脱离LPR基准锚的问题。第三， 2025年LPR可能没有很好地执行成本加成法的基本原则。2、预计2026年存款降息有望执行非对称原 则，第二季度落地概率较大。第一，复盘历次存款降成本举措，发生在第二季度、尤其是4—5月的概率 较大。第二，存款挂牌利率下调可能采取非对称下调方式，重点压降长端。第三，基于可预期的广谱利 率下行周期以及存款降息预期，银行负债端主动降久期的诉求仍较强烈。3、预计2026年春节前有一定 必要降准，幅度25—50bp。第一，在结构性流动性短缺框架下，央行需要定期全面降准以深度补水流动 性。第二，2026年第一季度银行资负仍有一定缺口压力，节前降准是可选项。 ...

简评：11月份国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳中有进发展态势。但外部不稳定不确定因素较多，国内有 效需求不足，经济运行面临不少挑战。下阶段，更加积极有为的宏观政策有望得以实施，从而持续扩大 内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有 效提升和量的合理增长。 12月15日，国家统计局数据显示，2025年11月份，70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降、同比 降幅扩大。一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，同比下降 1.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点；二手住宅销售价格环比下降1.1%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点， 同比下降5.8%，降幅比上月扩大1.4个百分点。 简评：11月70城房价数据呈现"环比总体下降、同比降幅扩大"的特征，其中一线城市11月房价表现不 佳，无论是新房还是二手房，同环比跌幅均有所扩大。投资与销售的双降或显示行业仍处于深度调整 期，基本面尚未扭转。往后看，在中央"着力稳定房地产市场"的定调及各地"因城施策"下，房地产市场 有望在结构分化中逐步寻底。 央行12月12日发布2025年11月金融统计数据报告显 ...