交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘小幅反弹，20均线有支撑。产业链上，矿价继续维稳，镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线坚 挺。不锈钢库存小幅回落，接下来要期待金九银十能否提振消费，去库存。新能源汽车产销数据较好， 但三元电池装车量同比下降，总体需求提振受限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货122450，基差660，偏多 3、库存：LME库存214230，+3996，上交所仓单21860，-96，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：震荡运行，下方成本线有支撑。 不锈钢 每日观点 多空因素 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 1、金九银十需求提振预 ...

[ 业内认为，此次利好政策也将进一步巩固上海楼市稳中向好的态势。位于宝山区杨行镇的金茂棠前项 目营销总监王丽萍就向记者表示，其所在项目拥有超千套房源，体量较大，基于新政落地前的市场表 现，团队曾担心项目中后期可能会面临客户量不足、去化速度放缓的情况，但随着新政的落地，项目推 出的160套房源实现"日光"。 ] 8月底，上海今年以来首次楼市优化政策"沪六条"出台。利好政策落地仅一周，效应已得到初步显现。 第一财经记者从多家开发商处了解到，不少此前受限于购房资格的改善型客户在新政后获得"房票"，成 为新增客源的重要组成部分，而公积金"又提又贷"也大大增强了客户购买力，推动不少项目成交量同步 增长，更有新开盘项目实现"日光"。与此同时，二手房也时隔2个月再次出现单日破千套的好成绩。 业内认为，随着市场对政策的反应和消化，未来成交表现将稳健上涨，对上海平稳市场态势形成有效巩 固，并有望引领全国一二线热点城市楼市复苏。在各大城市相继出台新一轮的楼市支持政策后，"金九 银十"可期。 新获"房票"客户回流 "利好落地之后，结合我们此前分销提高佣金的举措，过去一周项目来访量增长了50%。"9月1日，位于 嘉定新城的一个改善型 ...

Core Insights - Multiple new energy vehicle manufacturers reported record delivery numbers for August, with significant year-on-year growth across various brands [1][4][6]. Group 1: Delivery Performance - Leap Motor achieved a delivery of 57,066 units in August, marking an 88% year-on-year increase [2][4]. - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 44,579 units, maintaining a strong position in the market [1][10]. - XPeng Motors delivered 37,709 units, reflecting a 169% increase year-on-year [2][6]. - NIO delivered 31,305 units, a 55% increase compared to the previous year [2][7]. - Xiaomi's deliveries exceeded 30,000 units, with a 200% increase year-on-year [2][12]. - Li Auto delivered 28,529 units, showing a decline of 41% year-on-year [2][12]. - Zeekr brand delivered 17,626 units, while Lantu and Avita saw significant growth with deliveries of 13,505 units (119% increase) and 10,565 units (185% increase) respectively [2][15]. Group 2: Market Trends - The retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in August are expected to reach 1.94 million units, with 1.1 million being new energy vehicles, resulting in a penetration rate of 56.7% [3]. - The market is showing signs of recovery due to the reintroduction of trade-in subsidies and local stimulus policies [3][19]. - The upcoming "golden September and silver October" sales period is anticipated to boost automotive sales, with new model launches at the Chengdu Auto Show [19]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Leap Motor reported its first half-year net profit, becoming the second new energy vehicle manufacturer to achieve this milestone [6]. - XPeng Motors' Q2 total revenue reached 18.27 billion yuan, a 125.3% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 17.3% [7]. - NIO's August deliveries included 10,525 units from its brand and 16,434 units from the Lada brand, indicating strong performance [7][10]. - Zeekr Technology reported a Q2 total revenue of 27.431 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.6%, marking a historical high [15].

Group 1: Beijing Market Insights - In August, Beijing's second-hand residential transactions increased to 13,331 units, up by 547 units from July, attributed to new policy adjustments and market supply-demand dynamics [1][2] - The new policies focus on optimizing housing purchase restrictions and enhancing public housing loan support, injecting vitality into the market [1][2] - There is potential for further policy optimization, such as lowering purchase thresholds and simplifying procedures, which could accelerate the circulation of second-hand housing [2] Group 2: Shenzhen Market Performance - Shenzhen recorded 5,267 second-hand housing transactions in August, a 7.1% decrease month-on-month but a 12.8% increase year-on-year, maintaining above the industry "boom-bust line" for six consecutive months [3][4] - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to be realized, driven by increased market activity and promotional efforts from developers [4] - Factors such as rising stock market performance and seasonal demand are anticipated to boost market confidence and activity [4] Group 3: Guangzhou Market Trends - Guangzhou's second-hand residential transactions fell to 8,700 units in August, a decrease of 2.92% month-on-month, with a year-to-date total of 74,275 units, reflecting a 7.62% year-on-year increase [5][6] - The market is experiencing a slowdown due to adverse weather conditions and a traditional off-peak season, with expectations for limited breakthroughs in September [5][8] - Recent policy implementations, such as converting commercial loans to public housing loans, aim to support housing demand but may have limited immediate impact [6][8]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Precious Metals and Non - ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report - Authors: Xu Liang, Tang Yun [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Core View - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September (with a probability of nearly 90%), geopolitical tensions, and Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor have triggered a crisis of confidence in US dollar assets, boosting safe - haven demand. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and the de - dollarization trend provide long - term support for gold prices. The market is focused on tomorrow's US non - farm payroll data for guidance on the rate - cut path [3] Specific Data and Information - SHFE gold and silver futures prices and related charts are presented, including price trends, COMEX gold prices, and gold - silver ratios [4] - Gold long - term fund holdings and silver long - term fund holdings are also shown [11][12] - SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences are provided [6][13] Group 3: Copper Core View - Overseas copper mine disruptions have led to a decline in domestic spot processing fees. Tight resources are reflected in the decline of LME copper inventory and high domestic spot premiums. The Yangshan copper premium has climbed to $55/ton, indicating strong import demand. The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" in China has boosted refined copper consumption expectations. Although downstream restocking has promoted transactions, traders' high - price aversion has suppressed trading activity [16] Specific Data and Information - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 80,110 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 450 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.56% [17][22] - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, and refined - scrap price differences are also presented [27][31] - Copper warehouse receipts and inventory data, such as SHFE copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory, are given [32][34] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - **Aluminum**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, and domestic policies are also gradually taking effect, which is beneficial to aluminum prices. Although there are some production and transportation controls during the September parade, the demand in the peak season shows signs of recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but it needs to meet the peak - season expectations to break through the 21,000 resistance level [36] - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite may face greater volatility in the future. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, with high domestic operating capacity and expected oversupply in the second half of the year. Although some alumina plants in Henan have received environmental protection production - limit notices, the impact is mainly short - term [37] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cancellation of tax rebates for some recycled aluminum enterprises may lead to a decline in production capacity utilization, providing support for the price of aluminum alloy [38] Specific Data and Information - Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,710 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.05% [39] - Aluminum and alumina price differences and inventory data, such as warehouse receipts and LME inventory, are presented [43][55] Group 5: Zinc Core View - The supply of zinc is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore price has an advantage, and the increase in domestic processing fees in September may not be large. Overseas zinc ore supply is abundant, but overseas refined zinc production has limited growth. The demand is relatively stable and may improve during the "Golden September and Silver October." The LME inventory has continued to decline, and the zinc price shows a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [61] Specific Data and Information - Zinc futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE zinc main contract is 22,285 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.18% [62] - Zinc inventory data, such as SHFE zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory, are given [71] Group 6: Nickel Core View - The first - phase benchmark price of nickel in Indonesia in September shows that nickel ore prices are basically stable with a slight decline, and other nickel products are also stable. The MHP benchmark price has increased due to demand. Nickel iron prices are relatively firm, stainless steel prices are strong, and the demand for the peak season in September and October is warming up. Sulfate nickel prices are stable, and the impact of the riots in Indonesia on production has subsided [74] Specific Data and Information - Nickel futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE nickel main contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 740 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 1% [75] - Nickel spot prices, downstream profit data, and nickel ore price and inventory data are presented [79][81][83] Group 7: Tin Core View - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to the tight supply. Yunnan Tin's planned 45 - day maintenance starting from August 30 and the decline in refined tin production in August 2025 have contributed to this. In the short term, tin prices still have upward momentum due to the tight supply [88] Specific Data and Information - Tin futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE tin main contract is 273,120 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 860 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.31% [89][95] - Tin inventory data, such as SHFE tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory, are given [99] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The lithium carbonate market is in a shock - adjustment stage. The supply side has no new news, and the demand side has a marginal improvement expectation, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress short - term futures prices. The market trend depends on the actual downstream receiving situation [105] Specific Data and Information - Lithium carbonate futures prices, including daily and weekly changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 71,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 740 yuan and a weekly decrease of 7,500 yuan [106] - Lithium spot prices, including prices of lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium carbonate, are presented [110] - Lithium carbonate inventory data, such as Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and social inventory, are given [113] Group 9: Silicon Industry Chain Core View - **Industrial Silicon**: In the short term, it is in a narrow - range shock, and the shock range is expected to narrow further. In the medium - to - long term, the increase in power costs during the dry season will support prices [116] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a clear box - shock range. There is no strong driver to break the shock pattern for now, and it is necessary to track volume changes and breakthrough signals. The market is sensitive to news and may experience significant price fluctuations [116] Specific Data and Information - Industrial silicon spot prices, including prices at different ports and grades, are provided [117] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices, price differences, and related inventory and production data are presented [118][131][134]

Core Viewpoint - The "Autumn Trade Fair" is being utilized by various cities to stimulate the real estate market during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," with multiple promotional activities and policies aimed at easing the housing burden for buyers [1][2][10]. Group 1: Events and Activities - Hunan Province launched the "Anju Furong · Changkou Good House" campaign on September 1, involving 14 cities with various housing purchase incentives [1]. - Chongqing initiated an online autumn real estate and home furnishing exhibition featuring over 100 projects from 23 brands [1]. - Liaoning Province started a "Real Estate and Home Furnishing Promotion Activity" on August 29, with multiple real estate and home furnishing companies participating [1][3]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Autumn Trade Fair - This year's "Autumn Trade Fair" is characterized by a longer duration and a more diverse range of participating companies compared to previous years, reflecting significant support for the market [1][3]. - The event combines online and offline formats, allowing for greater flexibility and participation from various sectors, including real estate, finance, and home furnishing [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Initiatives - During the "Autumn Trade Fair," new policies were introduced, such as home purchase subsidies in Yueyang, with a maximum subsidy of 200,000 yuan for eligible buyers [5]. - Changchun also announced home purchase subsidies during the fair, offering 1,500 yuan per unit for cash buyers [5]. - Several cities, including Nanchang and Fuzhou, optimized housing fund policies to support home buyers, indicating a broader trend of policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing the market [7][8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts expect a supply surge in the real estate market during this year's "Golden September and Silver October," leading to a potential short-term recovery in market activity [2][10]. - The recent introduction of supportive policies in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai is anticipated to further stimulate demand and market engagement [8][10]. - The combination of promotional activities and new policies is expected to create a favorable environment for real estate sales, particularly in core urban areas [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The coal, coke, and steel industry chain has experienced price adjustments after a phase of rising prices, but the market maintains a positive outlook for the construction peak season this year due to a consensus on "anti-involution" within the industry [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Since July, steel prices have rebounded from their lows, with significant price increases in upstream coking coal and coke, providing cost support for the downstream market [1] - Current steel prices are still at mid-low levels for the year, with expectations for a trend of price increases in the spot market in September [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The strong support for coke prices is driven by three factors: macroeconomic benefits, recovery in demand, and tightening supply [1] - The effectiveness of macro policies and the degree of demand realization will be crucial to monitor moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new housing market in Hangzhou has shown significant recovery in August, with a notable increase in transaction volume, indicating a departure from the traditional off-season and preparing for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In August, a total of 4,187 new homes were sold in Hangzhou, representing a 41.98% increase from July's 2,949 units and an 8.3% increase year-on-year from 3,865 units in August of the previous year [2] - The surge in new home sales is attributed to the launch of several high-value projects, which attracted buyers and led to rapid sales [2] - The top-selling residential project in August was Binhang Binfeng City, with 290 units sold at an average price of 15,900 yuan per square meter [2] Group 2: High-End Market Dynamics - The luxury housing market is expected to see significant activity in September, with over 30 projects anticipated to launch, including 20 new developments [4] - The Anqier area is experiencing direct competition among luxury projects, with multiple new launches planned [4] - Notable projects include the high-end Yaohua project, which is set to offer units at a starting price of 80,000 yuan per square meter [4][5] Group 3: Upcoming Projects - In September, several high-end projects are set to launch, including the Green City Lixiangting, which will offer 48 units at an average price of 53,002 yuan per square meter [8] - The Qianxin Phase II project will introduce the only new luxury offering in the core area, with units priced between 70,000 and 80,000 yuan per square meter [7] - The Xiaoshan area remains a focal point for luxury developments, with multiple high-value projects entering the market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The coal, coke, and steel industry chain is experiencing price adjustments despite positive expectations for the construction peak season in September and October, driven by a consensus against "involution" in the industry [1][6]. Price Trends - Since July, steel prices have rebounded from a low point, with significant increases in upstream coke and coking coal prices providing cost support for the downstream market [1][4]. - By the end of July, the average price of rebar increased by 6.8% compared to the low point in June, with nearly 20 steel mills adjusting their prices upward by 20 to 100 yuan per ton [3][4]. - After a period of price fluctuations, steel prices are expected to trend upward in September, although macroeconomic policy effects and demand realization need to be monitored [1][3]. Industry Response - The steel industry is actively resisting "involution" competition, leading to improved operational conditions for companies like Anyang Iron and Steel, which reported a net profit of 38.06 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies are shifting focus towards high-end, intelligent, and green production methods, which has led to better performance metrics compared to industry averages [3][4]. Coke Market Dynamics - The coke market has seen seven rounds of price increases since July, with prices rising by 385 yuan per ton, a 28% increase, due to supply-demand dynamics and cost pressures [4][5]. - Analysts expect that while there may be a slight price drop in September, strong macroeconomic policies and good steel mill profits will support continued demand for coke [5][6]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The steel industry is currently experiencing a controlled supply environment, with expectations for demand recovery in September and October, leading to a steady increase in steel prices [6][7]. - The production of crude steel has decreased by 3.1% year-on-year from January to July, and ongoing policies to control production are expected to limit significant increases in output [6][7]. - The construction sector is anticipated to see a resurgence in demand due to the arrival of the traditional peak season, supported by government policies aimed at boosting infrastructure investment [7].

记者丨唐韶葵 编辑丨张伟贤 8月25日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局等六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市 房地产政策措施的通知》，在住房限购、公积金、住房信贷、住房税收等四个方面优化楼市 政策。新政指出，符合条件的家庭，外环外购房不限套数；公积金账户可支付首付款；商贷 利率不再区分首套和二套等等。 这是今年上海最大力度的一轮稳楼市措施。 上海中原地产的统计显示，新政出台的首周（8月25日至8月31日）， 上海新建商品住宅成交 面积11.34万平方米，环比增加35.25%。受此提振，8月上海新建商品住宅成交面积40.1万平 方米，环比增加17.5% 。 二手房方面，据解放日报报道，8月30日上海二手房单日网签量达1103套，创近3个月新高。 多位房产经纪人反映，最近一周带看量、咨询量激增。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进认为，上海新政精准到位，降低了购房成本并促进购房 需求释放。同时也鼓励了各房企加快项目营销，积极促进项目去库存。 在政策效应下，上海 楼市有望进一步升温 。 受楼市新政影响，8月最后一周，上海新房成交量出现反弹。 新政实质性推动成交 从板块分布来看，浦东新区由于面积优势，"基石"作用明 ...