Group 1: Domestic Economic Impact - The Trump administration's "breaking more, establishing less" reforms have led to significant economic and social issues, with the "reciprocal tariffs" causing direct dissatisfaction among the public and businesses [2][4] - The volatility in the stock market has eroded investor confidence, disappointing those who hoped to revitalize the manufacturing sector [2][4] - There is a possibility of the U.S. economy entering a recession, with the negative effects of tariffs exceeding expectations, which could jeopardize the Republican Party's prospects in the upcoming midterm elections [5][4] Group 2: Foreign Policy Challenges - The Trump administration has failed to deliver on promises such as resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours and maintaining a ceasefire in Gaza, indicating a lack of serious diplomatic engagement [6][4] - The administration's simplistic approach to international conflicts has led to a perception of ineffectiveness, with significant diplomatic commitments remaining unfulfilled [6][7] - Proposals such as the annexation of Greenland and regaining control of the Panama Canal have damaged the U.S.'s international reputation and increased anti-American sentiment among allies [7][8] Group 3: Global Leadership and Multilateralism - The withdrawal from international agreements like the Paris Accord and the World Health Organization has significantly weakened U.S. global leadership and influence [8][9] - The trend of "multilateralism minus the U.S." is emerging, as other countries continue to support international mechanisms without U.S. involvement [8][9] - The Trump administration's foreign policy reflects a strategic contraction, focusing resources domestically while reducing engagement in multilateral frameworks [9][10] Group 4: Economic Policy and Trade Relations - The imposition of tariffs has been a central aspect of the Trump administration's economic strategy, aimed at countering China's rise, but has faced backlash and market volatility [13][15] - The administration's inconsistent tariff policies have undermined investor confidence, as unpredictability in trade relations is detrimental to market stability [14][13] - The belief that tariffs can effectively curb China's technological advancement is flawed, as external pressures may instead accelerate China's innovation efforts [17][15]

据彭博社报道，今年3月，中国从加拿大进口730万桶原油创纪录。这一动作背后，是中美贸易博弈下能 源格局的剧烈震荡，也让特朗普坐不住了。 液化天然气（资料图） 可加拿大在拿到中国订单后，态度却让人捉摸不透。加拿大一边靠着中国的订单发展经济，另一边却在 政治上向美国靠拢。加拿大总理卡尼在竞选辩论中宣称中国是"加拿大最大的安全威胁"，还指责中国在 俄乌冲突中"与俄罗斯结盟"。加拿大财政部也宣布对满足特定条件的美国商品免征关税，想借此恢复本 土制造业活力。这种又想赚钱又要抹黑的做法，显然是自相矛盾。 中国和阿联酋的合作也在同步推进。中国和阿联酋签了为期15年、总金额预计达7000亿元人民币的液化 天然气协议，每年运输100万吨液化天然气，而且部分采用人民币结算。这不仅是中阿建交以来最大规 模的能源合作，更是对美元霸权的挑战，推动人民币国际化迈出一大步。同时，中阿合作还带来技术溢 出效应，助力中国能源产业绿色转型。 中美关税战升级，能源贸易首当其冲。特朗普政府对中国加征125%的额外关税，想借此压制中国能源 需求。但中国迅速做出反应，大幅削减从美国的原油和液化天然气进口。数据显示，中国从美国进口的 液化天然气直接降至零 ...

声明丨本文内容均引用权威资料结合个人观点进行撰写，文末已标注文献来源及截图，请知悉。 2008年9月15日，美国第四大投行雷曼兄弟轰然倒塌。 一位员工抱着纸箱走出大楼，镜头记录下了他茫然的表情。那一刻，华尔街的"金融神话"碎了一地，全球经济的"潘多拉魔盒"被打开。 然而，早在数十年前，这场席卷全球的金融灾难已埋下了伏笔——当贪婪的资本遇上失控的美元霸权，这场财富绞杀行动已悄然启动。 雷曼倒下前，疯狂的华尔街 21世纪初的美国家庭，人人都是"房产赌徒"。 美联储连续13次降息，利率低至1%，银行举着"零首付""免收入证明"的广告牌，将贷款塞给服务员、流浪汉甚至宠物狗。 到七十年代的时候，日本的半导体占据了全球80%的份额，日本制造的汽车更是风靡美西方市场。 这些信用极差的"次级贷款"，被华尔街天才们打包成"金融甜品"——抵押贷款证券，贴上AAA评级标签，卖给全球投资者。 更为荒诞的是，当时美国一套实际价值只有25万美元的房子，购房者和银行联手包装下获得60万贷款，银行转手又把这笔贷款包装成60万美元债券转售给投 资者。 这种层层杠杆下，1美元就撬动30美元的泡沫经济，让全美人民陷入"房价永涨"的集体幻觉之中。 ...

Group 1 - The core message from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is a warning to China to make concessions on trade and economic issues, or face escalated tensions from the U.S. [1][3] - Yellen's statements are seen as a psychological tactic aimed at pressuring China to comply with U.S. demands, such as reducing exports to the U.S. and opening more markets [5][9] - The backdrop of Yellen's remarks includes domestic economic challenges in the U.S., such as inflation and supply chain issues, as well as the shifting global economic landscape where China's influence is growing [7][9] Group 2 - The U.S. is concerned about China's advancements in high-end manufacturing and technology sectors, particularly in semiconductors, which could threaten U.S. technological dominance [11][18] - Yellen's tough stance is also influenced by the political climate in the U.S., as upcoming elections create pressure for politicians to adopt a hardline approach towards China [9][20] - China's economic resilience and strategic partnerships globally provide it with leverage against potential U.S. sanctions, making a complete economic decoupling challenging for the U.S. [11][14] Group 3 - The potential for U.S. sanctions or embargoes on Chinese goods raises concerns about the impact on American consumers and businesses, as many rely on Chinese manufacturing [13][14] - The complexity of implementing sanctions is highlighted, as it could lead to significant disruptions in the U.S. economy, affecting prices and corporate operations [14][16] - The ongoing U.S.-China rivalry is characterized as a long-term strategic battle, with both sides needing to maintain their positions without overreacting to threats [16][18]

文/中国社会科学院金融研究所副所长、国家金融与发展实验室副主任 张明 近期 ，美国滥 施关税 政 策 对国 际 金融 市场 造成 直接 冲击 ，美 国股 市 、债 市、汇市出现了三者齐跌的罕见现象。美债信用严重受损，最终动摇的是 美元霸权根基。反过来讲，全球投资者对于其他安全资产的投资意愿将更 加强烈，会越来越多转向其他具有充分流动性、较高收益、规模足够大的 安全资产。 近期，美国滥施关税政策对国际金融市场造成直接冲击，美国股市、债市、汇市出现了三者齐跌的罕见现象。其中，美国10年期国债收益率由4月4日的 4.01%一度升至4月11日的4.49%，创下自2001年"9·11"事件以来的最大单周涨幅。收益率飙升对应的是美债价格的大幅下跌，进而引发全球对美国债市场 系统性风险的普遍担忧。 4月以来，美长期国债收益率快速上升及其导致的市场巨震，主要受四重因素驱动： 一是美国政府滥施关税引发美国经济再通胀预期。 市场预测，仅美国对华关税加征至245%这一举动，就将显著推高其进口商品价格，恶化美国中低收入 群体生活水平，并推高其未来通胀预期。通胀预期升高导致美联储降息空间收窄，进而推高长期国债收益率。 二是外国投资者购 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the dangers of unilateral trade practices by the United States, warning that such actions could lead the world back to a "law of the jungle" scenario, where all nations become victims of hegemonic behavior [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Practices - The U.S. is accused of imposing tariffs on all trade partners and coercing them into making significant concessions under the guise of "reciprocal tariffs," which undermines existing international rules [1][3]. - The article highlights that if the international community allows the U.S. to act unchecked, it will result in a return to a predatory international environment, affecting all countries, especially the weaker ones [3][4]. Group 2: China's Position - China advocates for resolving disputes through negotiation and opposes unilateralism and protectionism, asserting that it is committed to defending its rights and preventing a regression to a "jungle world" [4][5]. - The article underscores China's significant market potential, being the second-largest consumer market globally, and its commitment to high-quality development, which includes green, digital, and intelligent transformations [5]. Group 3: Multilateralism and International Order - Both China and Australia are portrayed as beneficiaries and supporters of a multilateral system and free trade, emphasizing the importance of collective action to maintain international stability [1][5]. - The article calls for a united effort from the international community to uphold the UN-centered international system and the international order based on law, contributing to regional and global prosperity [4][5].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has decided to delay its tariff policies in response to strong pushback from China and the EU, indicating a potential buffer period for the next round of tariff battles [1] - China and the EU are collaborating to lower tariffs on electric vehicles, while Germany has lifted sales restrictions on Huawei, showcasing a united front against U.S. policies [1] - Japan, traditionally a close ally of the U.S., is showing resistance to Trump's demands, highlighting the complexities of international trade relationships [3][4] Group 2 - Japan views China as its largest trading partner, making it hesitant to join any anti-China economic alliance proposed by the U.S., as it could jeopardize its trade interests [3] - The push for U.S. manufacturing growth conflicts with Japan's industrial base, particularly in sectors like automotive and semiconductors, leading to Japan's reluctance to make significant concessions [3][4] - The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Japan reveal a desire from Japan to secure permanent exemptions from U.S. tariffs, while opposing the inclusion in an anti-China coalition [4] Group 3 - The situation reflects a broader trend where other countries, such as Germany, South Korea, and France, may share similar concerns regarding U.S. trade policies and their implications [6] - The volatility of U.S. trade policies under Trump raises concerns about the sustainability of U.S. manufacturing growth and the potential impact on the dollar's dominance [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the dollar system due to the spillover effects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the weaponization of the dollar, and significant changes in the global economic landscape [1][2][8] - The Milan Report proposes the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" as a strategy for the U.S. to reshape the global economic order through dollar depreciation, debt restructuring, and trade confrontation [2][4] - The dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency is linked to U.S. financial control, which is maintained through military alliances and economic strategies [3][6] Group 2 - The dollar's financial control manifests in three key areas: international pricing power, financial sanctions, and crisis transfer [4][5] - The U.S. has leveraged its financial control to impose sanctions, as seen in the Ukraine crisis, which has raised concerns about the safety of dollar assets and accelerated the process of "de-dollarization" [10][11] - The "Triffin Dilemma" poses a structural challenge to the dollar system, where the need for liquidity through U.S. deficits undermines the dollar's credibility [7][12] Group 3 - The article highlights the impact of the dollar's hegemony on global financial stability, emphasizing that the current U.S. policies may exacerbate internal contradictions within the dollar system [8][9] - The spillover effects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have led to global financial cycles, with significant repercussions for emerging markets [9] - The weaponization of the dollar has contributed to the fragmentation of the global financial system, prompting countries to seek alternative payment mechanisms [10][11] Group 4 - The article suggests that the U.S. strategy of "debt monetization" could undermine global financial stability, as proposed in the Milan Report [12][13] - The potential implementation of long-term zero-coupon bonds could lead to a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasury securities, impacting global markets [12][13] - The need for a diversified international monetary system is emphasized, with recommendations for enhancing the use of the renminbi in global trade [13][14] Group 5 - The article advocates for the construction of a new international monetary order based on the concept of a "community of shared future for mankind," promoting cooperation among countries [16] - It highlights the importance of regional financial cooperation and the establishment of a multilateral currency settlement system to reduce reliance on third-party currencies [16] - The development of a digital currency payment system is seen as a crucial step towards reforming the international payment system and enhancing the renminbi's role [15][16]

当地时间4月29日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅出席金砖正式成员和伙伴国外长会，讨论加强 多边主义这一会议主题。王毅说，解决世界上问题的出路在于维护和践行多边主义。扩员后的"大金 砖"应当继续倡导共商共建共享，维护国际关系基本准则，捍卫多边贸易体制，构建更加公正合理的全 球治理体系。王毅表示，面对美国在全球范围挥舞关税大棒，各国都应作出选择：我们是否允许世界重 回弱肉强食的丛林？是否认可一国私利可以凌驾于各国公益？是否放任国际规则被无视甚至抛弃？是否 只要妥协退让就能独善其身？而终极之问则是，我们是要接受一个唯我独尊的单极霸权，还是迎接一个 平等有序的多极世界？王毅强调，时代不容倒退，公道自在人心。对于贸易战，中国的回答清晰而坚 定：如果执意要打，我们奉陪到底；如果准备要谈，就要平等尊重。中方着眼的，不仅是自身正当权 利，也是各国的共同利益；中方维护的，不仅是互惠合作，更是国际规则；中方坚守的，不仅是国家民 族尊严，还有人世间的朗朗乾坤。(新华社) ...

Group 1: Historical Context of Currency Dominance - The fate of currencies is closely tied to the rise and fall of nations, with the British pound being a pillar of global trade in the 19th century due to the Industrial Revolution [1] - The British pound's decline began after the Napoleonic Wars, leading to a suspension of the gold standard in 1815, and further weakened by World War I and economic downturns [3] - The Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 established the dollar as the world's reserve currency, pegged to gold at $35 per ounce, allowing other currencies to link to the dollar [5] Group 2: Current Status of the Dollar - As of Q3 2024, the dollar accounts for 57.39% of global foreign exchange reserves, significantly ahead of the euro at 20.02%, indicating its continued dominance in international trade and finance [12] - However, there are emerging risks as countries like China and Japan reduce their holdings of U.S. debt, and geopolitical tensions rise, leading to discussions about alternative currencies for oil transactions [14] Group 3: Jewish Capital Influence - Jewish Americans, despite being only 2% of the population, hold significant influence in finance, technology, and media, with a notable presence in major firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley [16] - The wealth and influence of Jewish Americans are substantial, with 44% of Jewish households earning over $100,000 annually, far exceeding the national average [8] Group 4: Potential Shifts in Capital - If the U.S. economy declines, Jewish capital may seek new investment opportunities in countries like Israel, China, and India, driven by the need for better returns and reduced geopolitical risks [20] - Israel, with a growing tech sector and a GDP of approximately $400 billion, is a potential destination for Jewish capital, though its small economy and regional instability pose challenges [22] - China, as the second-largest economy with a GDP exceeding $18 trillion, offers significant market potential, but strict regulations and cultural differences may hinder large-scale capital inflows [25] Group 5: Future Implications - The potential outflow of capital from the U.S. could severely impact its financial markets, leading to increased volatility in stock and bond markets, while emerging markets may benefit from the influx of investment [32] - The decline of the dollar's dominance may not happen overnight, but trends indicate a shift towards a multi-currency system, with central banks increasing their gold reserves and expanding the use of currencies like the yuan and euro [34] - Historical parallels can be drawn between the current situation of the dollar and the past decline of the pound, suggesting that the U.S. may face similar challenges if economic conditions do not improve [36]