Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **U.S. economy**, particularly the **employment market**, **inflation**, and **monetary policy** implications due to recent economic data and political influences [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Employment Market Weakness** - The U.S. employment market shows signs of fatigue, with a rising unemployment rate and a significant downward revision of previous job growth figures, leading to an average of only **50,000 new jobs** added over the past three months [2][6]. - The labor participation rate changes contribute to the overall weakness in supply and demand within the job market [2]. 2. **Interest Rate Cut Expectations** - Market expectations for a rate cut in Q4 have surged, with a **95% probability** of a **25 basis point** cut before October, driven by the weak employment and inflation data [1][2]. - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on the real estate and manufacturing sectors [5]. 3. **Inflation Trends** - Since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs in April, prices of goods heavily reliant on imports, such as furniture and appliances, have risen significantly [3]. - The effective tax rate from tariffs is projected to increase from **16.5%** to **17.5%**, which may further elevate inflationary pressures [3]. 4. **Political Influence on Monetary Policy** - Political pressures for looser monetary policy are increasing, especially with the potential for new Federal Reserve board members who may favor rate cuts [5]. - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and inflation data will significantly influence the market's pricing of September rate cut expectations [5]. 5. **Consumer Spending Dynamics** - Consumer spending constitutes **70%** of the U.S. economy, with high-income households showing resilience in their spending habits [6]. - Fixed-rate loans dominate the debt landscape, minimizing the impact of the current rate hike cycle on overall consumer debt pressure [6]. 6. **Economic Outlook** - The U.S. economy is transitioning from a "very good" state to a "not so good" state, indicating a slowdown but not an imminent recession [7]. - The narrative around the economy remains unchanged, with expectations of a gradual weakening rather than a linear decline into recession [7]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest more clearly in the data by October, as inventory replenishment continues in various sectors [3][4]. - The sensitivity of middle and low-income groups to price changes may mitigate inflation transmission pressures compared to previous years [4].

智通财经APP获悉，今年初，在经历"鹰派降息"(即连续快速降息，首轮大幅下调50个基点)后，美联储将利率维持 在峰值水平并转向"观望"策略，这引发包括特朗普总统在内的降息呼吁者强烈不满。特朗普数月来持续就此事施压 美联储主席鲍威尔。 7月30日，美联储再次决定维持利率不变。不过，此次会议上有两位理事——鲍曼和沃勒打破阵营投出反对票。值 得注意的是，这是自1993年以来，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)首次出现如此程度的分歧，尽管最终投票结果仍是 9:2。 与此同时，美联储会议次日公布的就业报告引发了上周五市场的震荡，因这份疲软的就业报告彻底改变了期货市场 预期。市场对9月美联储会议不降息的预期概率从一周前的35.4%骤降至10%，剩余90%概率均指向25个基点的降息 幅度。 降息曙光初现 事实上，无人预料到市场突变如此剧烈，包括Bowman Capital Management的创始人及投资顾问Jack Bowman，这也 正是8月1日就业数据大幅下修引发市场抛售的原因。实际劳动力市场比预期疲软得多，前两月就业人数累计下调 25.7万。对比历史数据，此次修正幅度创新冠疫情以来最大，再往前则要追溯至全球金融危机期 ...

面对经济数据持续偏弱、就业市场悄然转凉，美联储内部"鸽声"再起。旧金山联储主席戴利的最新表态 格外引人注目：她认为降息的时机正在逼近，年内降息次数更可能多于两次。对于一个以"中性"立场著 称的联储高官来说，这番话无疑释放了一个非常清晰的信号——货币政策的转折点或许比市场原先预期 得更快到来。 Vatee外汇从戴利的表述看，她仍然保留对通胀反扑的警惕。她提到，"如果劳动力市场重新回暖，通胀 压力可能卷土重来，届时降息节奏应更为克制。"这表明联储仍将保持"数据依赖"而非"路径依赖"的政 策思维，不会预设次数、也不会提前承诺终点。这种策略虽然避免了给市场过度承诺，但同样加大了短 线波动的风险。 戴利讲话后，利率期货市场的隐含定价迅速调整，9月降息的概率从不足40%跃升至接近60%，甚至有 交易员开始押注12月前最多三次降息。相比之下，美元指数出现小幅回落，美债收益率曲线进一步趋 平，反映出市场对经济前景的谨慎甚至悲观态度。 这次表态还可能引发一个更深层次的市场疑问：美联储是否已经意识到软着陆的窗口正在收窄，甚至已 经错过？如果就业市场的真实疲弱远超预期，而通胀放缓只是表象，维持当前利率水平不仅无助于抑制 价格，还可 ...

Economic Conditions - Recent economic data indicates that warning signs are flashing, with a weaker labor market and declining consumer spending in the first half of the year [1] - The average job growth over the past three months is only 35,000, marking the worst performance since the pandemic [1][4] - Many companies are postponing investment and hiring plans due to uncertainty surrounding economic policies, particularly tariffs [2] Consumer Spending - Companies like Procter & Gamble have noted a slowdown in consumer spending trends, attributed to consumer expectations rather than current realities [3] - Rising prices for imported furniture and appliances suggest that companies are beginning to pass higher tariff costs onto consumers [3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The recent employment data has raised questions about the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, increasing pressure on officials to lower rates before the economy cools excessively [3][5] - Following the employment report, the two-year U.S. Treasury prices surged, while the S&P 500 index saw a significant decline [5] Economic Growth Projections - Despite current struggles, the U.S. economy is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace, with forecasts of 1.5% growth for this year and 1.7% for 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the silver market, highlighting price movements and the implications of recent Federal Reserve decisions on economic outlook and monetary policy [1][3][4]. Market Overview - As of August 4, 2025, the spot silver price is at $37.34 per ounce, with a trading range between $36.66 and $37.39 during the day [1][2]. - The silver market is experiencing fluctuations, with key support levels identified at $36.75 and $36.55, and resistance levels at $37.20 and $37.50 [5]. Federal Reserve Insights - The dissenting votes from Fed governors Bowman and Waller mark a significant internal division within the Federal Reserve, the first of its kind since late 1993, indicating differing views on employment and economic forecasts [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester expresses confidence in the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, despite disappointing employment data, emphasizing the need to monitor future employment figures and inflation [3]. Political Influence - Former President Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Powell and calls for significant interest rate cuts add complexity to the Fed's policy discussions, although internal Fed responses have been largely dismissive [4]. - The dynamics within the Fed, including potential future leadership changes, are influenced by these political pressures, but the overall policy direction remains focused on inflation concerns stemming from trade policies [4]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for silver suggests a cautious approach, with the price remaining below a recently broken upward channel, indicating a neutral to bearish sentiment [5]. - Key indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Average Directional Index (ADX) suggest a weak trend, with potential for consolidation in the short term [5].

今日周一(8月4日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于37.11一线上方，今日开盘于36.99美元/盎司，截至发稿，现货白银暂 报37.13美元/盎司，上涨0.31%，最高触及37.15美元/盎司，最低下探36.66美元/盎司，目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏 向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储的几位高级官员上周五表示，即使7月就业报告不佳，就业市场仍"稳固"，且似乎不急于降息。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯上周五表示："我想说，劳动力市场的状况是其中之一……我认为是稳定的，但我们确实看到就 业增长放缓。" 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克和亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克上周五也称就业市场稳固，暗示美联储将等待就业和通胀方面 的更多信息，然后再决定再次降息。 6月份，美联储偏爱的核心PCE同比增长2.8%，远高于美联储2%的目标水平。 威廉姆斯的两位同事，美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼，在9票赞成、2票反对的投票结果中反对维持关键利率不变。他们声 称，就业市场比其他美联储官员认为的要疲弱，并表示，关税带来的任何通胀都不会持续太久。 上周五公布的7月就业报告显示，春末和夏季招聘活动迅速放缓，华尔街押注者提高了美联储在9月中旬降息的几率。 威廉姆斯表示，他 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream off - season characteristics are obvious, and the non - ferrous metals sector has corrected. The prices of various non - ferrous metals show different trends, and each metal has its own influencing factors and market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals have different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is 98.7, with a daily decline of 1.36%, a weekly increase of 1.04%, and an annual decline of 9.03%; industrial silicon is 8500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.97%, a weekly decline of 12.60%, and an annual decline of 22.62% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The overall content of the Politburo meeting is less than the market's optimistic expectations; the result of the Sino - US economic and trade talks is in line with expectations, but the US side's statement is hawkish; China's July manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the Fed's statement is hawkish, suppressing the expectation of a September interest rate cut; the US July non - farm data is lower than expected, and the ISM manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the US has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper [8]. - **Raw Material End**: Slightly bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore has increased slightly, and the port inventory of domestic copper ore has decreased [8]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The loss of smelters using spot copper ore has narrowed, and the profit of smelters using long - term contract copper ore has increased. China's copper smelter production in July has further increased [8]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The downstream demand has improved slightly, but the off - season characteristics are obvious [8]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The copper inventories at home and abroad have increased simultaneously [8]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The market is worried about the US economic recession, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, so the copper price is expected to remain weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: May be under pressure to decline in the short term; Arbitrage: None [8]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The Sino - US tariff suspension will be extended for 90 days; the US June core PCE price index has increased significantly; China's July official manufacturing PMI has declined; Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper; the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged, but two voting members support a rate cut [88]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The domestic processing fee remains the same as last week, and the import processing fee index has been slightly increased. The smelters have a strong willingness to raise the processing fee [88]. - **Smelting End**: Bearish. The zinc ingot production in July reached a new high in the past five years, and the production in August is expected to increase [88]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The terminal project construction is affected by natural disasters, but the galvanizing sector is affected by positive news. There is a rumor that galvanizing manufacturers around Beijing will stop production during the September military parade, which needs further attention [88]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory has continued to increase, and it may continue to increase before the terminal demand enters the peak season [88]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The zinc fundamentals are under strong pressure, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [88]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Long copper and short zinc [88]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The US July non - farm data has unexpectedly declined, and the previous two months' data has been significantly revised down; the US manufacturing PMI is weaker than expected; the Sino - US trade negotiation is slightly less than expected [200][202]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The premium of Indonesian domestic trade pyrometallurgical nickel ore is stable, and the benchmark price is rising. The demand for nickel ore procurement has weakened, and the domestic port inventory has increased seasonally [200][202]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The pure nickel production remains high; some Indonesian nickel - iron plants have reduced production due to cost inversion, but the demand has also weakened; the MHP coefficient is stable, and the procurement demand for nickel sulfate may increase [200]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The stainless steel price has corrected, the steel mill profit has been repaired, and the production reduction may be less than expected. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased slightly, and the overseas demand is still restricted. The new energy production and sales remain high, and the precursor enterprises' raw material inventory is relatively sufficient [200]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The overall inventory has increased. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory is 20.9 tons, an increase of 2.53%; the SHFE nickel inventory is 2.57 tons, an increase of 1.17% [200]. - **Investment View**: Weakly volatile. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the nickel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with increased volatility. In the long term, there is still pressure of over - supply of primary nickel [200]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see [200].

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest figure since October of the previous year [1] - The Labor Department revised down the job numbers for May and June, reducing them by a total of 258,000 jobs, which contributed to an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% [1] - The federal government has been cutting jobs, with 12,000 positions eliminated in July alone, totaling 84,000 job cuts for the year [1] Group 2 - Analysts have noted that the current economic state is characterized by stagnation, with no hiring or layoffs occurring, described as "half-dead" [2] - The significant job cuts in federal agencies, including over 80,000 positions in the Department of Education, have contributed to the employment decline [4] - The cumulative downward revision of non-farm payroll data since 2023 has exceeded 1.7 million jobs, raising concerns about the accuracy of previous employment reports [4] Group 3 - Investor Jim Rogers has expressed extreme pessimism about the U.S. economy, warning of an impending "great crisis" due to the massive national debt [9] - Rogers draws parallels between the current U.S. situation and the historical debt crisis faced by the UK in 1976, emphasizing the importance of debt repayment [9] - He believes the prolonged bull market in U.S. stocks, which has lasted since 2009, is unsustainable and warns of a severe downturn when the market eventually corrects [9] Group 4 - Rogers has shifted his investment focus away from U.S. stocks, holding only stocks from China, which he views as a rapidly rising global power with significant potential, particularly in tourism [8][12] - He highlights the importance of China's Belt and Road Initiative, suggesting it will reshape global economic and political landscapes [8]

Employment Data - In July, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, below the market expectation of 104,000[5] - The non-farm employment figures for May and June were revised down by 258,000 to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, resulting in a 3-month moving average of 35,000, the lowest since the pandemic[5] - Private sector job growth increased from 3,000 to 83,000 in July, while goods-producing jobs decreased by 13,000, with manufacturing jobs experiencing three consecutive months of negative growth[5] Unemployment and Labor Participation - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, marking a new high since 2021 but still at historical lows[5] - The labor participation rate fell to 62.2%, the lowest since 2022, indicating a contraction in labor supply[5] - The household survey showed a decrease of 260,000 in employment and an increase of 220,000 in unemployment in July[5] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Fed Chair Powell indicated that even if job growth drops to zero, a stable unemployment rate would suggest a robust labor market due to simultaneous declines in supply and demand[5] - The Fed faces a dilemma as tariffs may drive inflation up, complicating the balance between expanding employment and reducing inflation[5] - It is anticipated that the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged in September, followed by rate cuts in October and December[5]

Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth for Q2 was revised up to 3.0%, exceeding expectations of 2.6%, with net exports contributing 5 percentage points[5] - The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now forecast indicates a slight decrease in Q3 GDP growth to 2.1%[3] - The final domestic private purchases growth (consumption + investment) fell by 0.7 percentage points to 1.2%[5] Employment Data - July non-farm payrolls increased by only 74,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000[5] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 23,000 to 193,000, better than the expected 211,000, indicating no significant layoffs yet[3] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, primarily due to a drop in labor force participation[5] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core PCE inflation for June was reported at 2.6%, above the expected 2.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[5] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, with a hawkish tone from Powell[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices fell, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones down by 2.4%, 2.2%, and 2.9% respectively[7] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1% to 98.7, while the euro and yen depreciated by 2.8% and 2.1% respectively[7] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold prices increased by 1.9% to $3,399.8 per ounce, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.8% to $69.7 per barrel[7]