Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the uncertainty caused by the U.S. government's series of tariff measures is suppressing global investment, leading to downward revisions of growth forecasts for the global economy, the U.S. economy, and the European economy [1] - Christine Lagarde emphasized that the current situation is a lose-lose scenario for all parties involved [1] - The sooner uncertainties are resolved and agreements on tariff and non-tariff barriers are reached, the greater the benefits for everyone [1]

Group 1 - The Eurozone's industrial and trade sectors faced significant shocks in April, likely influenced by U.S. tariff policies, challenging previous views of Eurozone resilience during economic turmoil [1] - Eurozone industrial output fell by 2.4% month-on-month in April, exceeding the 1.7% decline expected by economists, with all industrial sectors experiencing contraction [1] - The trade surplus for the Eurozone dropped sharply from €37.3 billion in March to €9.9 billion in April, indicating severe pressure on trade [1] Group 2 - Eurozone exports to non-EU countries decreased by 8.2%, while the overall EU export decline reached 9.7%, reflecting broader trade challenges [1] - Exports to the U.S. plummeted from €71.1 billion in March to €47.6 billion in April, primarily driven by a sharp reduction in chemical exports, potentially linked to Ireland's pharmaceutical sector [1] - April's industrial output year-on-year growth was only 0.8%, with only non-durable consumer goods showing annual growth, indicating a significant slowdown [2]

Core Insights - Bank of America Merrill Lynch warns that Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" will not achieve fiscal balance through growth effects and will provide limited economic growth stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact - The plan is estimated to cost $2.3 trillion but will only generate $102.8 billion in revenue feedback, resulting in a self-financing ratio of only 4.5% [2][3] - To achieve self-financing, GDP needs to grow by approximately 9% by the fiscal year 2034, which is deemed nearly impossible [2][3] Group 2: Growth Projections - The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) projects that the plan will only increase GDP by an average of 3 basis points over the next 10 years, with a maximum increase of 0.4% by the fiscal year 2034 [3][4] - Economic effects from 2025 to 2034 are projected as follows: Output increase of 0.4%, Business capital decrease of 0.1%, Labor increase of 0.6%, and Consumption increase of 0.8% [3][4] Group 3: Comparison with Other Estimates - The Tax Foundation estimates that the plan will lead to a long-term GDP growth of 0.8%, covering about one-third of its costs [4] - The Wharton School predicts a GDP growth of 0.4% in the first decade, raising the annual growth rate from 1.8% to 1.85% [4] - The Yale Budget Lab suggests that the plan may raise growth rates from 1.8% to about 2% by 2027, but federal debt will eventually reverse this effect [4]

Core Viewpoint - Vaclav Smil argues that economic growth should not be pursued unconditionally, as it relies on complex logistics rather than mere technological advancements, and that the current food production system is capable of meeting human needs, but waste and mismanagement are significant issues [1][4][5] Group 1: Economic Growth and Environmentalism - Smil critiques extreme environmentalists' doomsday rhetoric, suggesting that the focus should be on food waste rather than dietary restrictions [4][5] - He emphasizes that the current food production can provide 3000 kilocalories per person daily, with one-third of food wasted, highlighting the inefficiency in food distribution rather than production [4][5] - The book discusses the importance of agriculture as the foundation of human society, arguing that alternative food sources cannot replace traditional farming [4][6] Group 2: Food Production and Consumption - Smil's new book addresses the potential dangers of trendy diets that neglect traditional agriculture, warning that such trends could lead to future food shortages [5][6] - He provides data on the caloric needs of adults, arguing that low-carb diets could jeopardize food security if widely adopted [5][6] - The book explores the historical reliance on agriculture over hunting, citing anthropological studies that show the limitations of foraging for sustaining large populations [4][6] Group 3: Class and Food Security - Smil raises concerns about the disconnect between wealthy individuals' dietary choices and the food security needs of the larger population, suggesting that environmentalism often overlooks the basic needs of the poor [8][9] - He critiques the notion that organic farming is inherently better for the environment, pointing out that it often cannot meet the demand compared to conventional farming [8][9] - The discussion includes the economic implications of agricultural labor, noting that a significant portion of the population is engaged in agriculture, yet it remains undervalued compared to other sectors [8][9]

消费是经济活动的最终目的，也是经济增长的重要引擎。提振消费既是当前扩内需、稳增长的重要抓 手，也是中长期转变经济发展方式的重大举措。习近平总书记指出："要建立和完善扩大居民消费的长 效机制，使居民有稳定收入能消费、没有后顾之忧敢消费、消费环境优获得感强愿消费。"今年4月召开 的中共中央政治局会议指出："要提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济增长的 拉动作用。"当前，国内有效需求增长动力不足，经济持续回升向好基础还需巩固。我们要贯彻落实习 近平总书记重要讲话精神和党中央决策部署，把促消费和惠民生结合起来，增强提振消费的内生动力。 促消费和惠民生紧密联系。惠民生是促消费的基础，促消费是惠民生的重要途径。把二者有机结合起 来，加强相互之间的牵引联动，有助于增强居民消费能力、提升居民消费意愿并带动相关产业发展，形 成更多消费新业态新增长点。应当认识到，消费是收入的函数，居民消费能力、消费意愿、消费层级的 提升在很大程度上取决于收入增长状况。只有推动形成居民收入可持续增长机制，才能从根本上提升居 民的消费能力、意愿、层级。同时，在居民收入一定的情况下，生育、教育、医疗、养老等日常生活中 的具体问题，都 ...

编者按：科学制定和接续实施五年规划，是我们党治国理政的一条重要经验，也是中国特色社会主义一 个重要政治优势。我国将于2026年开始实施"十五五"规划，目前党中央正在组织起草"十五五"规划建 议。编制和实施"十五五"规划，对于全面落实党的二十大战略部署、推进中国式现代化意义重大。凝聚 共识，汇聚众智，证券时报即日起推出"专家建言'十五五'规划"专栏，敬请垂注。 中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷 中泰证券研究所分析师贺钟慧 "十五五"时期，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性将继续上升，国内需求成为大国博弈的一种重要 战略资源。近年来，我国面临国内有效需求不足的困扰，依靠投资拉动的经济增长模式逐渐受到产能过 剩、债务高企、回报率偏低等多重因素制约，这要求我们进一步增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用，充 分挖掘消费潜力、提高消费能力，持续提升消费在GDP中的比重。 一、当前消费占比 较低的表现及影响 当前，消费占我国经济的比重较低，可以从规模占比和增长贡献率两个角度来看。 最终消费占GDP比例方面，2024年我国最终消费占GDP的比例为56.6%，近年来持续处于55%左右水 平。世界银行数据显示，2023年中国最终消费支出占G ...

以下文章来源于小K侃有色 ，作者小K侃有色 文 | 小K侃有色 来源 | 小K侃有色 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 时值年中，各主流机构纷纷更新对2025年的经济预测，IMF、OECD、WB、Fitch Ratings等近期均更新了经济预测，那么对 大宗商品特别是工业品需求意味着什么？有什么指引？我们都知道供给是计划的，相对确定的，而需求是相对变化的，不确定 的，随预期而动。那么在目前已知供给情形之下，需求预期而动，大宗走向何方？我们就大宗领头羊原油、铜等品种尝试给出 一些指引。 结论： 从原油和铜的全球经济增长内涵的消费增速上来看，原油分歧远小于铜的分歧。原油消费分歧0.8%，而铜消费分歧 1.3%。也就是说从目前的价格表现上来看，原油定价的充分性远大于铜的。 从价格上来，铜依然维持在相对高位，而原油趴在谷底。 从交易的角度上来看，两者分歧也很大，无论是偏离度分位数还是净持仓分位数、波动率； 从基本面的角度来说，原油拿的是戴维斯双杀的牌，无论是价格还是交易数据上已经充分定价了这一事实，甚至有点过度定 价，波动率是对地缘政治进行定价；而铜拿的牌好一点，戴维斯单击，供给短周期向上，需求向下，仍在 ...

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧洲央行的担忧已从通胀转向经济增长放缓。 ...

智通财经6月12日电，欧洲央行的GUINDOS表示，央行的担忧已从通胀转向经济增长放缓。 ...

订阅特朗普动态 +订阅 特朗普："大而美"法案将削减1.6万亿美元的开支 金十数据6月12日讯，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体最新发文："这项伟大、宏大、美好的法案将以前所未 有的速度推动经济增长。与此同时，它还将削减1.6万亿美元的开支。这让我们的国家走上了正确的轨 道，此外！让美国再次伟大！" ...