1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "rise", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with the core logic being that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The core logic is that recent stock market trading volume has decreased, indicating weakened market chasing sentiment and slower upward momentum of stock indices. The main logic for the stock index rebound is the need for favorable policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations, and the market is waiting for policy implementation from the Politburo meeting in July. In the short term, stock indices will mainly oscillate within a range [5]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: rise; intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; view reference: oscillation with a slight upward bias; core logic: policy - end positive expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: IF, IH, IC, IM. Intraday view: oscillation with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: rise; reference view: oscillation with a slight upward bias. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated narrowly. The total stock market trading volume was 1227 billion yuan, a decrease of 227.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The recent decline in trading volume reflects weakened market chasing sentiment and slower upward momentum of stock indices. The main logic for the stock index rebound is the need for favorable policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations, and the market is waiting for policy implementation from the Politburo meeting in July. In the short term, stock indices will mainly oscillate within a range [5].

金十数据7月7日讯，美国财长贝森特表示，美国将在不导致通胀的情况下实现经济增长。将在未来48小 时内宣布几项贸易相关消息。昨晚我收到了许多新的提议。许多人在谈判中改变了立场。在谈及关于财 政部和美联储的职位时，贝森特说，我将按照总统的意愿行事。而在利率方面，他表示，市场可能在将 特朗普对利率的观点计入价格。这不仅仅是美联储主席的问题，而是整个委员会的问题。（就美元走 势）货币涨跌是自然现象，并非异常波动。 美财长：未来48小时将公布几项贸易相关消息 ...

美国财长贝森特：美国将实现经济增长而没有通胀。 ...

美国、德国就关税问题达成协议的最后期限为7月9日，但企业已经在为更复杂的双边关系及由此带来的 成本做准备。一些企业计划将生产转移至大西洋彼岸，而像梅赛德斯-奔驰集团这样的汽车制造商则已 与美国官员进行非正式会谈，这在一定程度上削弱了由欧盟方面主导的官方谈判。 德国经济部在一份声明中表示："未来的进展仍存在高度不确定性。制造业在夏季是否能继续保持增长 势头，将在很大程度上取决于贸易和地缘政治环境的演变。"进一步凸显德国经济所面临的不稳定形势 的是，上周五公布的一项数据显示，5月工厂订单环比下降1.4%，远超预期，也是四个月来首次下降。 Joachim Nagel周一表示："德国经济在短期内面临重大逆风。"不过他也补充道："展望未来，仍有理由 保持谨慎的乐观态度。"Joachim Nagel表示，考虑到今年年初超预期的0.4%经济增长，"全年实现小幅增 长是可能的"，"但即便如此，这也意味着德国将连续三年陷入微弱增长的状态"。 智通财经APP获悉，德国5月工业产出意外增长，表明企业在美国可能大幅提高关税之前加紧生产以抢 占出口先机。周一公布的数据显示，德国5月季调后工业产出环比增长1.2%，好于经济学家预期的环比 ...

欧洲央行管委内格尔：考虑到第一季度经济增长强于预期，德国GDP年率略有增长似乎是可能的。 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is shifting towards macroeconomic data, particularly the actual evolution of economic growth and inflation, despite recent policy uncertainties [1] - UBS expects a slowdown in US economic growth but does not foresee a recession, with consumer spending likely to moderate due to inflationary pressures [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation data is anticipated to become evident in the coming months, with economic growth expected to weaken further by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September, with a forecast of four consecutive 25 basis point cuts [1] - The assumption is that the effective tariff rate will stabilize at the current level of 15%, which is not expected to trigger an economic recession [1] Group 3 - As policy outlook becomes clearer, UBS suggests that market volatility will gradually return to normal, advising investors to prepare for opportunities in 2026 [2] - Investment strategies include continuing to allocate to gold for political risk hedging, investing in quality fixed-income products, and positioning for long-term equity investments [3] Group 4 - UBS has upgraded the financial sector to an "attractive" rating due to benefits from regulatory easing and capital returns post-stress tests [3] - The firm maintains an "attractive" rating for communication services, healthcare, utilities, and information technology, citing strong growth drivers and defensive attributes [3]

日本政府周一公布的数据显示，日本5月实际薪资创下近两年来最快下滑速度，因持续的通胀升速继续 快于工资增速，并阻碍日本的经济增长。 金价连续两个月震荡调整收取高位见顶形态，本月走势也偏向倒垂或回落，附图指标多头信号连续减 弱，将会继续增强见顶预期，暗示后市有跌至3000美元或2600美元附近的风险。不过，目前走势仍运行 在5月均线上方，在跌破此支撑之前，暂继续维持牛市看涨趋势不变； 尽管上周一份劳工组织报告显示，日本工会工人平均薪资创下34年来的最大升幅，但在美国贸易关税的 不确定性下，整体薪资数据疲软，引发人们对日本经济复苏的担忧。 今日周一（7月7日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3306.29美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3313.91 美元/盎司，下跌0.63%，最高触及3342.43美元/盎司，最低下探3306.29美元/盎司，成交量.目前来看， 现货黄金短线偏向看跌走势。 根据日本厚生劳动省的数据，经通胀调整后，5月实质薪资较上年同期下降了2.9%，这是自20个月以来 的最大降幅，而4月经修正后的数据为下降2.0%。实质薪资连续第五个月出现下降趋势。作为家庭购买 力的关键决定因素，实质薪资的持续下降 ...

Economic Recovery and Policy Direction - The Chinese economy shows signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, with strong performance in retail sales and exports [2] - The Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25 outlined comprehensive macroeconomic policies focusing on investment, consumption, and exports, emphasizing a balanced and holistic approach [2] - The policies aim to enhance quality and ensure reasonable economic growth, integrating quality improvement with growth targets [3] State-Owned Enterprises and Market Mechanisms - The 20th Central Committee's third plenary session emphasized the need for state-owned enterprise reform, focusing on strategic industries and public services [4] - A key reform includes improving the bankruptcy mechanism to facilitate market exit, addressing issues of overcapacity and unhealthy competition [4] Private Sector and Competition - The government aims to address fairness in competition for the private sector, emphasizing equal access and protection [5] - Issues such as delayed payments and unfair enforcement practices are highlighted as significant challenges for private enterprises [5] - The phenomenon of "involution" in competition is noted, where companies engage in price-cutting, leading to reduced profits and investment willingness [5] International Trade and Globalization - China's rapid industrial upgrade has led to increased direct competition with developed countries, shifting from a complementary trade model to one of competition [6] - Despite trade tensions with the U.S., China's trade diversification strategy has shown success, maintaining stable growth in global trade [7] - Global trade has rebounded, reaching a historical high of 61.24% of global GDP, indicating a strong trend towards globalization [7][8] Digital Economy and Future Growth - The digital economy is identified as a significant opportunity for growth, with the potential for large-scale market advantages [9] - The success of digital products in international markets demonstrates the global potential of China's digital economy [8][9] - The overall economic landscape presents both opportunities and challenges, with a focus on coordinated policies to support sustainable growth [9]

高盛分析师周四在报告中指出，尽管特朗普的新政策可能正在颠覆全球贸易秩序，但迄今尚未对经济造 成严重冲击。"几乎没有迹象表明政策不确定性正在损害经济活动，"高盛团队在报告中写道。 在高盛报告发布之际，美国6月就业数据好于预期：经济新增14.7万个岗位，失业率从4.2%降至4.1%。 投资者情绪乐观，标普500和纳斯达克指数创历史新高。 尽管分析师此前预期特朗普第二任期将拖累经济，但数据呈现出截然不同的图景：自2024年末以来，主 要发达及新兴市场的投资、工厂招聘、消费支出及整体经济活动均保持韧性。 可以肯定的是，以历史标准衡量，贸易政策的不确定性仍然很高，高盛的不确定性指数在特朗普当选后 飙升。但近几个月来，随着贸易协议谈判推进，这种不确定性有所缓解。 事实上，对全球二季度及全年经济增长的预测已从先前的悲观预期中回升。分析师指出，在多数经济体 中，贸易相关投资占GDP比重较小，因此影响"小到难以察觉"。新工厂投资虽有下滑（尤其是在新兴市 场），但这在主要经济体中仅占GDP的0.2-0.3个百分点。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 报告强调，政策不确定性通常在金融环境收紧时影响最大，但今年以来全球流动性实际 ...

Group 1 - The core idea is that China's economic growth has the potential to elevate the living standards of its 1.4 billion citizens to levels comparable to those in developed countries like the United States, driven by market economy reforms and increasing GDP [1][4][14] - Since the introduction of market economy reforms in the 1980s, over 800 million people have escaped poverty, and the middle class has expanded to approximately 400 million [2][4] - China's per capita GDP has risen from under $200 to $13,400 today, with projections suggesting it could reach $20,000 by 2035, marking a significant economic transformation [4][5][19] Group 2 - Economic growth is expected to continue at an annual rate of 4%-5%, with optimistic scenarios suggesting per capita GDP could reach $21,200 by 2028 if the currency appreciates and economic growth accelerates [5][6] - The current economic landscape shows that while growth has slowed, there are still opportunities for improvement, particularly in the real estate sector, which is viewed as a potential driver for economic advancement [7][10][11] - The middle class is identified as the primary engine of consumption, with a need for income growth to stimulate further economic activity and support the transition to a developed economy [15][19] Group 3 - The definition of the middle class in China differs significantly from that in the U.S., with the Chinese middle-income group having a much lower income threshold, which highlights the potential for growth in consumer spending [17][18] - The current middle-income group in China is approximately 400 million people, with an average annual income of 30,598 yuan, which is significantly lower than the U.S. middle-class income range [18][19] - Stimulating consumption is deemed essential for achieving developed nation status, as increased consumer spending leads to higher corporate earnings, job creation, and ultimately, wage growth [19]