证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250720 鲍威尔维护独立性令美联储 9 月难降息 2025 年 07 月 20 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《关税落地后，美国通胀为何连续不 及预期？》 2025-07-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：本周美国经济数据边际走强，"软数据"密歇根大学消费者 信心指数与"硬数据"零售销售均好于预期，美股上行；特朗普关税威 胁一度令美债利率抬升，但随后在 PPI 数据不及预期和美联储理事沃 勒的鸽派发言带动下，美债利率有所回落，10 年期美债利率全周升 0.62bps 至 4.416%。本周公布的 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy by the Trump administration is likely to initially drive up inflation in the U.S., with the potential for future deflation depending on the economic conditions [1][2][3] - The article discusses the divergence in market opinions regarding the impact of high tariffs on U.S. price levels, with mainstream views suggesting that tariffs will push inflation up through import cost transmission, while others argue that it may suppress economic growth and lead to deflationary pressures [2][3] - Historical evidence shows that while tariffs can create cost-push inflation, significant economic contractions can lead to stronger deflationary forces, as seen during the Great Depression and the 2018 trade tensions [3][10] Group 2 - The current economic environment suggests that tariffs are more likely to trigger inflation rather than directly cause deflation, due to three main factors: the relative health of the U.S. economy, the significant increase in tariff rates with limited import substitution options, and a relatively weak dollar [7][8][9] - Inflationary pressures began to manifest in May 2025, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a slight increase, and further price increases are expected as the tariff policy is fully implemented [11][12] - The article notes that the price increases may not be one-time events, as the uncertain and gradual nature of the tariff implementation could lead to sustained inflationary expectations among businesses and consumers [16][17] Group 3 - Other factors influencing inflation include expansionary fiscal policies, such as the "Big and Beautiful" act, which is expected to significantly increase the federal deficit and support inflation levels, and stricter immigration policies that may lead to labor shortages and rising wage costs [19] - Conversely, potential downward pressures on inflation could arise from spending cuts and slowing economic growth, with the International Monetary Fund and OECD lowering their GDP growth forecasts for the U.S. [20]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising attention towards "anti-involution" in the market, highlighting significant misunderstandings regarding the concept, particularly in the context of supply-side reforms and the various hidden mechanisms involved in "anti-involution" [4]. Deep Dive Topics - The "anti-involution" topic has gained traction, but there is a considerable divergence in understanding, with many interpreting it through a supply-side reform lens, which may lead to misinterpretations [4]. - The article emphasizes that beyond production adjustments and self-discipline discussions, there are numerous hidden strategies associated with "anti-involution" [4]. Hot Topics - Since June, there has been a resurgence of the "golden-haired girl" trading phenomenon overseas, with domestic sentiment also heating up. The article questions which data might exceed expectations and whether the market's main narrative will shift due to the effects of tariffs [8]. - The importance of "strategic resources" has been underscored in the context of changing global trade dynamics, prompting an exploration of which resources in China possess strategic attributes and how they should be developed in the future [10]. High-Frequency Tracking - The role of "export grabbing" is evolving, with a shift from emerging markets to the United States, indicating a change in export dynamics [13]. - Credit improvement is primarily driven by short-term loans to enterprises, reflecting a trend in financial data [17]. - The June economic data reveals five significant anomalies, suggesting new changes in the economy that may be hidden [21]. - The article notes that the third quarter will serve as a verification period for tariff-induced inflation effects, with a focus on the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [24]. - Domestic infrastructure construction has shown a continuous recovery, while industrial production remains relatively stable, although there is a divergence in the construction sector and a slowdown in real estate transactions [26]. - The expiration of tariff exemptions has led to declines in most developed markets, indicating a potential impact on international trade dynamics [29].

Global Asset Price Performance - Major global stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 0.6%, 0.3%, and 1.5% respectively compared to last week [1] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1 basis point, while the 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 2.6 basis points due to fiscal concerns [1] - Commodity prices saw a decline in gold and oil prices, while the U.S. dollar index appreciated by 0.6% against most currencies [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The next Federal Reserve chair candidate is under significant market scrutiny, especially after President Trump's comments about potentially firing Powell, which caused temporary market panic [3] - The selection process for the next Fed chair has begun, as stated by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering pausing interest rate cuts in July despite complications from U.S. tariff threats [3] U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. inflation showed a slight rebound, with June CPI year-on-year growth rising to 2.7% and core CPI increasing to 2.9% [9] - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations, driven mainly by a recovery in auto sales [9] - The July Beige Book indicated continued moderate growth in the U.S. economy, with consumer confidence slightly improving, although inflation expectations for the next year decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 4.4% [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 52.7, the highest in over three years, driven by progress in U.S.-EU tariff negotiations and government investment plans [17] - Japan's core CPI year-on-year growth slightly slowed to 3.4% in June, influenced by gasoline subsidies and temporary electricity fee reductions, remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 39 consecutive months [18]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising attention towards "anti-involution" in the market, highlighting significant misunderstandings regarding the concept, particularly in the context of supply-side reforms [4] Group 1: Deep Dive on "Anti-Involution" - The market's understanding of "anti-involution" is largely misaligned, with many interpreting it through a supply-side reform lens, which may lead to incorrect conclusions [4] - Besides production adjustments and self-discipline discussions, "anti-involution" encompasses various "hidden strategies" that are not widely recognized [4] Group 2: Economic Trends and Data Analysis - Recent economic data from June reveals five notable anomalies, indicating new changes in the economy that may not be immediately apparent [21] - The U.S. inflation data for June suggests that the third quarter will serve as a critical period for validating the effects of tariffs on inflation [24] - Domestic infrastructure projects have shown a continuous recovery, indicating a potential positive trend in construction activities [26] Group 3: Export Dynamics - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting, with emerging markets nearing the end of this phase while the U.S. begins to see a resurgence in export activities [13][14] - The importance of "strategic resources" in global trade is increasing, prompting discussions on which resources in China possess strategic attributes and how they should be developed in the future [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes that "quantity" is more important than "price" this year, focusing on the impact of inflation risks on the U.S. economy and its implications for exports and employment [2][11]. Group 1: Impact of Inflation on U.S. Economy - Inflation may erode the real income and consumption capacity of U.S. consumers, particularly among low- and middle-income groups, negatively affecting their purchasing power and increasing wealth disparity [3][12]. - A significant rise in inflation could suppress risk appetite, leading to a decline in U.S. stock markets, which would adversely affect the wealth effect for high-income groups and consequently impact service consumption [3][18]. - Rising inflation, combined with tax cuts, may raise concerns about the sustainability of U.S. public debt, potentially keeping long-term U.S. Treasury yields high and constraining fiscal expansion [4][26][27]. - If inflation rises significantly, it could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy in countering potential economic and employment downturns [4][32]. Group 2: Observing Short-term Inflation Risks - Various dimensions indicate short-term inflationary pressures, particularly in price expectations and surveys, while actual prices and economic indicators suggest a more stable inflation trajectory [5][35]. - Consumer inflation expectations tend to synchronize with U.S. CPI year-on-year changes but may lead actual inflation trends by 1-2 quarters during significant inflationary periods [5][36]. - Price surveys from businesses generally lead U.S. CPI changes by 2-5 months, indicating potential inflation trends [5][37]. - Financial market indicators, such as implied inflation rates from U.S. Treasury bonds, also lead CPI changes by about 2 months [5][46]. Group 3: Constructing a Leading Index for U.S. Inflation - A comprehensive leading index for U.S. inflation has been constructed using various dimensions, showing a correlation with U.S. CPI changes, leading by approximately 2 months [8][61]. - The leading index indicates that inflationary pressures are primarily driven by cost factors, with other dimensions showing limited upward pressure [8][68]. - The recent rise in the comprehensive leading index suggests a potential increase in U.S. CPI, with predictions indicating a possible rise to around 3.2% in July [8][69].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The expectation is that U.S. inflation will rebound in Q3 2025, while the economy continues to weaken[2] - The Federal Reserve's difficulty in lowering interest rates is increasing despite economic downturns[3] - The dollar index is projected to break 100 in Q2 and Q3 2025, with gold identified as a key asset below $3000 per ounce[3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve's independence has been historically challenged, particularly during the World War II and Korean War periods, leading to inflation pressures[4] - The 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord marked a significant shift, establishing the Fed's independence in monetary policy[5] - Recent attempts by President Trump to influence the Fed's independence echo past governmental pressures, raising concerns about potential market impacts[7][12] Group 3: Historical Context - The Fed's establishment in 1913 did not prevent bank failures during the Great Depression, with one-third of banks closing by 1933[4] - The Fed's role evolved post-World War II, initially supporting government financing through low interest rates, which later contributed to inflation exceeding 20%[8][17] - The appointment of William McChesney Martin as Fed Chairman in 1951 was pivotal in asserting the Fed's independence against governmental pressures[10] Group 4: Risks and Implications - If the Fed loses its independence, the U.S. could face severe market repercussions, including stock, bond, and currency declines[12] - The potential for uncontrolled inflation could arise from aggressive monetary policy changes, leading to significant asset volatility[14]

Group 1 - The core CPI in June was 2.9%, below the expected 3.00%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures despite a rise in overall CPI [1][2] - Energy prices were a significant driver of the CPI increase, with gasoline prices rising by 1%, fuel oil by 1.3%, and electricity by 1% due to geopolitical tensions [1] - The decline in new and used car prices, down 0.3% and 0.7% respectively, contributed to the core CPI being lower than expected [2] Group 2 - There is increasing evidence that tariffs are pushing up prices, particularly in consumer electronics and home goods, contradicting the notion that tariffs have minimal impact on consumer prices [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are influenced by upcoming macroeconomic data, with a significant focus on inflation trends and employment figures [4][6] - Analysts predict that the inflationary pressures from tariffs will become more pronounced in the coming months, potentially leading to adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The current "moderately tight" monetary policy in the U.S. is deemed appropriate, allowing the Federal Reserve to observe economic trends and assess risks for potential policy adjustments [1] Economic Forecast - The economic impact of the Trump administration's increased import tariffs is just beginning to manifest, with inflation expected to rise by approximately 1 percentage point in the second half of the year and early next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to slow down to 1% this year [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to increase from the current 4.1% to 4.5% by the end of the year [1] - The inflation rate is expected to remain between 3% and 3.5% for the entire year [1]

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident [3][7][38] - The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations [3][38] - The market reacted to the data with a temporary decline in the 10Y Treasury yield and the US dollar index, which later recovered, indicating a focus on future inflation expectations [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound include rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services [4][39] - The energy CPI for June increased by 0.9% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, driven by clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment, indicating the impact of tariffs [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, while core non-rent service inflation rebounded, particularly in medical, transportation, and entertainment services [4][39] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects [5][28][40] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflation increases [5][34][40] - The combination of moderate inflation increases and weakening employment may influence the Fed's decision-making [34][40]