Core Points - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized as crucial for the economy, with Stephen Miran asserting that he was not pressured to support interest rate cuts during his confirmation hearing [1][2][3] - Miran plans to temporarily step down from his role as a senior economic advisor to Trump if confirmed as a Fed governor, which raises concerns about the potential conflict of interest and the independence of the Fed [4][5][6] - Miran has faced scrutiny regarding his past proposals that could increase presidential power over the Fed, including the ability to dismiss Fed officials, which he claims is part of a broader system of checks and balances [6][10] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Independence - Miran stated that the independence of the Federal Reserve is "vital" for the U.S. economy and that he agrees with the need for the Fed to remain independent from political influence [2][3] - He acknowledged that while Trump selected him based on his policy views, he would act independently if confirmed [2][6] Confirmation Hearing Dynamics - Concerns were raised by Senate Banking Committee members about Miran's ability to maintain the Fed's independence, especially given his close ties to the Trump administration [1][5] - Miran's temporary leave from his White House role during his tenure as a Fed governor was criticized as potentially undermining the Fed's independence [5][6] Regulatory and Economic Policy Views - Miran expressed the need for a comprehensive review of regulatory costs and benefits, particularly regarding capital requirements under Basel III [3] - He criticized the Fed's focus on climate change as a sign of political influence and stated he would resist any actions that exceed the Fed's core responsibilities [3][6] Employment Data and Economic Impact - Miran commented on the quality of employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), suggesting it has deteriorated over time, although he did not confirm any allegations of data manipulation [7][8] - He maintained that tariffs have not significantly impacted inflation, despite concerns raised by other senators [9] Interest Rate Policy and Market Reactions - Miran predicted that the bond market would not resist potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, indicating a belief in the market's adaptability to changes in monetary policy [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that overseas long-term bond yields are experiencing significant increases, with Japan, the UK, and the US seeing record highs in their long-term bond yields [1][2][3] - In the US, the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts is primarily affecting short-term rates, while long-term rates are rising due to concerns about persistent inflation and potential second-round inflation risks [1][2] - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached 3.28%, the highest on record, while the UK’s 30-year bond yield climbed to 5.75%, the highest since 1998 [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about fiscal sustainability are rising in other economies, particularly in Japan and the UK, where persistent inflation and large fiscal deficits are leading to expectations of increased taxation or spending cuts [2][3] - Japan's central bank is now expected to raise interest rates earlier than previously anticipated, with market expectations shifting from April to January or March [2] - The UK’s inflation rate reached 3.8% in July, raising doubts about the Bank of England's ability to cut rates this year [2] Group 3 - Seasonal factors are contributing to poor performance in long-term bonds, with historical data showing that September is typically a weak month for long-term bonds [3] - The current environment is characterized by a peak in corporate bond issuance, which is exacerbating supply-demand mismatches in the bond market [3] - Investment-grade dollar bond premiums are at near-low levels, prompting increased corporate bond issuance, with over $90 billion issued recently [3] Group 4 - The rising yields on overseas long-term bonds may enhance their attractiveness relative to equities, potentially leading to increased allocations from institutional investors [4] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the "stagflation" environment in developed economies are creating downward pressure on both bonds and currencies, while gold may benefit in this context [4] - The US 30-year bond yield remains relatively stable, but yields in Japan and the UK continue to rise, indicating potential for further increases [4]

Market Performance - On September 4, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.77%, the S&P 500 up 0.83%, and the Nasdaq up 0.98% [2] - Amazon rose over 4%, while Goldman Sachs increased by more than 2% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.11%, with individual stocks like Bitdeer down over 9%, Brainstorm down more than 7%, BeiGene down over 5%, Global Data down more than 4%, and Alibaba down over 4% [4] Gold Market - In the morning, spot gold opened slightly lower, with COMEX gold down nearly 0.3% [6] U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement - President Trump signed an executive order to officially implement the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which includes a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese imports to the U.S. [8][9] - Japan will provide significant market access for U.S. manufacturers in key sectors, including a 75% increase in U.S. rice purchases and a total of $8 billion annually in U.S. agricultural products [9] - Japan will also allow the sale of U.S.-made passenger cars without additional testing and will purchase U.S. commercial aircraft and defense equipment, committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. [9] Federal Reserve Updates - Federal Reserve nominee Stephen Moore urged President Trump to consider replacing all Fed governors, emphasizing the importance of Fed independence [11] - Fed officials indicated that a gradual rate cut is appropriate, with a 99.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 55.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by October [11]

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by the U.S. Department of Justice is seen as part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to exert pressure on the Federal Reserve and potentially undermine its independence [2][3][5]. Group 1: Investigation and Allegations - The DOJ is investigating Cook for allegedly providing false information on mortgage applications related to her properties in Michigan and Atlanta [2][3]. - Bill Pulte, appointed by Trump, accused Cook of mortgage fraud, claiming she misled banks to obtain better loan terms typically reserved for primary residences [3][5]. - Cook has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, asserting that the reasons for her potential dismissal are fabricated and lack legal basis [3][5]. Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - The controversy surrounding Cook's position is escalating into a critical point regarding Trump's attempts to gain control over the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a majority of Trump-appointed members on the board [6][8]. - Economists express concern that Trump's actions may undermine the checks and balances within the U.S. system, questioning the ongoing independence of the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - A public letter signed by approximately 600 economists, including Nobel laureates, emphasizes the high threshold for removing a Federal Reserve governor and warns against actions that could weaken the central bank's independence [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Goldman Sachs warns that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is compromised, a small shift of investor holdings from U.S. Treasuries to gold could drive gold prices to unprecedented levels, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce under extreme scenarios [3].

斯蒂芬・米兰表示，若获得确认出任美联储理事会空缺席位，他将以白宫经济顾问委员会主席的身份休 无薪假。 周四，在参议院银行委员会的确认听证会上，特朗普总统提名的美联储理事候选人米兰表示，在担任美 联储理事期间（任期至2026年1月31日），他不会完全辞去白宫的职务。他将接替阿德里亚娜・库格 勒，库格勒于8月初意外辞职。 米兰的任命正值外界猜测特朗普将寻求提名一位 "影子主席" 并在美联储获得足够影响力之际，这引发 了人们对美联储独立性的担忧。米兰在担任美联储理事的同时保留白宫职位，可能会进一步加剧这些担 忧。 米兰在听证会上表示："律师已告知我，合法的做法是从经济顾问委员会休无薪假，停止相关工作。如 果律师有其他建议，我会遵守法律并听从律师的意见。" 他补充道："我被提名的任期为四个半月。如果我被提名并确认担任更长的任期，而不仅仅是几个月， 我绝对会辞职。" 特朗普一直力推大幅降息，批评现任美联储主席鲍威尔迟迟不采取行动。在听证会上，米兰多次承诺维 护美联储的独立性，并强调政府中没有人要求他承诺放宽货币政策。 美联储下次政策会议将于9月16日至17日举行。 责任编辑：栎树 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is underway, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expected to interview 11 candidates nominated by the Trump administration, which may reflect an unusual level of transparency and potential political pressure on the Fed [2][3][5]. Candidate Details - Among the 11 candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, three are considered strong contenders: former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, Trump economic advisor Kevin Hassett, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Other candidates include Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Larry Lindsey, James Bullard, Marc Sumerlin, Rick Rieder, and David Zervos [4]. Importance of the Federal Reserve Chair Selection - The selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is crucial as the Fed is a key economic policy-making institution in the U.S., influencing interest rates and, consequently, the economic well-being of individuals and businesses [7]. The confirmation process may face heightened partisan conflict due to current political polarization [7].

Core Points - The U.S. Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook regarding potential false information submitted in mortgage applications [1][3] - The investigation focuses on properties in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and Atlanta, Georgia, with grand jury subpoenas issued in both states [1] - Cook was appointed by President Biden in May 2022 and is the first Black woman to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor, with her term set to last until 2038 [1] - Cook has resisted pressure to lower interest rates from former President Trump, indicating a stance of caution [1] - Trump's recent actions, including the announcement of Cook's dismissal, have raised concerns about the politicization of the Federal Reserve [1][4] Investigation Details - Allegations against Cook include submitting false bank documents and property records to obtain more favorable loan conditions [3] - Trump's claims suggest Cook's actions may constitute fraud and disqualify her from serving on the Federal Reserve Board [3] - Cook's legal representative argues that any discrepancies in mortgage documentation could be attributed to "unintentional clerical errors" rather than intentional deceit [3] Legal and Institutional Context - The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 stipulates that a governor can only be dismissed for "just cause," which typically involves misconduct in office [3] - Legal experts suggest that Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook does not meet procedural requirements, as the allegations pertain to her private life prior to her appointment [3] - This situation marks the first instance in over a century where a president has attempted to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor, highlighting a significant escalation in tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve [4] Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - The ongoing conflict is perceived as an erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, with implications for monetary policy decision-making [4] - A candidate nominated by Trump, who is set to face Senate confirmation, has pledged to uphold the independence of the Federal Reserve during his hearings [4]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Policies - The White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order to officially implement the US-Japan trade agreement, which includes tariff adjustments to prevent double taxation on previously high-tariff Japanese imports and adjusts the tax rate for products with a previous rate below 15% [1] - The US trade deficit surged by 32.5% in July to $78.3 billion, marking a four-month high, with total imports rising by 5.9% to $358.8 billion and exports increasing by only 0.3% to $280.5 billion [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Cook, issuing subpoenas [2] - Federal Reserve's Williams indicated that interest rate cuts may become appropriate "over time," although he did not specify the timing or pace of such actions [2] - Fed Governor Harker stated there is no reason to lower rates this month, as current data shows inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and continues to rise [2] - Fed nominee Milan emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence for economic stability and stated that if appointed, he would maintain independent judgment without committing to support rate cuts [2] Group 3: Employment and Economic Indicators - In August, ADP reported an increase of 54,000 jobs in the US, falling short of the market expectation of 65,000, with July's figure revised to 104,000 [3] - US companies announced plans to add only 1,494 jobs in August, the lowest for the same period since 2009, while layoffs surged to nearly 86,000, the highest for this period since 2008 when excluding pandemic effects [3] - The ISM Services PMI for August registered at 52, indicating the fastest expansion in six months, with the new orders index jumping 5.7 points to 56, the largest increase since September of the previous year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump marks an unprecedented intervention in the Fed's independence, raising concerns about the stability of the U.S. dollar and the global financial system [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the dismissal, the U.S. Treasury market reacted sharply, with the yield spread between 2-year and 30-year bonds reaching its widest point in three years, indicating market concerns over potential interest rate cuts due to political factors [3]. - The long-term bond yields increased, suggesting that investors are demanding higher returns to compensate for anticipated inflation and policy instability [4][5]. Group 2: Legal and Political Implications - The legal basis for Trump's action is ambiguous, as the term protection for Fed governors is designed to insulate monetary policy from political pressures, and the definition of "just cause" for dismissal is under scrutiny [5][9]. - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde expressed that the loss of Fed independence would have global repercussions, highlighting the interconnectedness of financial systems [4][6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Impact - The erosion of the Fed's independence could lead to a loss of credibility in U.S. monetary policy, prompting investors and foreign central banks to reconsider their dollar-denominated assets [6][12]. - The potential shift in U.S. monetary policy could affect global capital flows, particularly in emerging markets, leading to increased volatility and inflationary pressures [9][12]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Trump's motivations appear to be linked to creating a favorable economic environment for his political agenda, which may compromise the Fed's ability to operate independently [8][10]. - The ongoing tension between economic policy and political influence raises concerns about the long-term stability of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency [12].

周四（9月4日），美股三大指数集体上涨，其中标普500指数收盘创下历史新高。截至收盘，标普500指数涨0.83%，报6502.08点，刷新了上周四录得的收 盘纪录，这也是该指数年内第21次收于新高。 道琼斯指数涨0.77%，报45621.29点；纳斯达克综合指数涨0.98%，报21707.69点，也都在纪录高位附近。 大型科技股普涨，亚马逊涨超4%，奈飞涨逾2%，Meta、特斯拉涨超1%，谷歌、苹果、微软小幅上涨，谷歌股价创新高。芯片股方面，美光科技涨超 4%，联华电子、AMR涨逾3%，英特尔、阿斯麦、高通涨超2%，英伟达小幅上涨，德州仪器跌超4%。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.11%。百济神洲美股跌超5%，阿里巴巴跌超4%，蔚来跌逾3%，小鹏汽车跌超2%；携程涨超2%，百 度涨逾1%。 01 美联储降息预期攀升 周四公布的一系列数据进一步强化了劳动力市场降温的观点，使得市场对美联储降息的押注持续升温，并推动美国国债收益率下行。 02 特朗普顾问临时任美联储理事被拷问 据路透社报道，美国官员透露，美国司法部已对美联储理事丽莎·库克展开刑事调查，并发出传票，以调查她是否在抵押贷款申请中提交了 ...