Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting this year where rates were held steady, aligning with market expectations [1] - The Fed's policy statement indicated a slowdown in U.S. economic growth during the first half of the year, suggesting that if this trend continues, it may provide grounds for future rate cuts [1] - The statement also highlighted high uncertainty regarding economic prospects, with risks to both inflation and employment targets, reflecting a cautious stance from the Fed [1] Group 2 - There was a notable occurrence in this meeting where two Federal Reserve governors voted against the rate decision, indicating the influence of external pressures, particularly from President Trump, who has been vocal about his desire for rate cuts [1] - The pressure on Fed Chairman Powell has increased, especially as Trump continues to express expectations for rate cuts during public appearances [2] - Historical analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve's institutional independence has gradually strengthened, maintaining its policy framework despite governmental fiscal pressures, indicating resilience in its decision-making process [2]

他说，虽然更高关税税率对一些商品价格开始出现更清晰的影响，但其对经济活动和通胀的整体影响仍 有待观察。 美联储自今年1月份议息会议以来连续维持利率不变，这一立场面临美国总统特朗普以及其他政府高级 官员以及国会议员的批评。特朗普不断施压鲍威尔降息并多次威胁解雇鲍威尔引发外界对美联储货币政 策独立性的担忧。 鲍威尔在记者会上表示，美联储在调整利率时不会考虑对政府带来的成本影响和联邦政府的财政需要。 他说："如果我们真的这样做，这对我们的信誉和美国财政政策信誉都不是好事。" （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经纽约7月30日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会30日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布 将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这一决定符合市场预期，也是美联储货币政 策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 不过，美联储公开市场委员会12名具有投票权的成员中，9人投票支持维持利率不变的同时，美联储负 责监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller） 均投票支持降息25个基点，美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adriana ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that it is too early to assert whether the Fed will lower the federal funds rate in September as the financial markets expect [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve concluded a two-day monetary policy meeting on July 30, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% [2] - Powell indicated that no decision has been made regarding the September interest rate and that they will consider economic information before the next meeting [2]

摩根大通固定收益全球主管米歇尔：美联储很可能也会在9月继续按兵不动。 ...

Core Insights - The US economy shows strong performance, with the dollar on track for its longest consecutive rise since February [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased by 0.3%, reaching its highest level since June 23, marking five consecutive days of gains [1] - Recent US economic growth and inflation data exceeded expectations, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [1] Economic Performance - In Q2, US economic activity rebounded slightly due to a modest increase in consumer spending [1] - The core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose by 2.5% year-on-year [1] - ADP private sector employment data indicates that the labor market remains robust [1] Market Implications - Market perceptions may suggest that the Fed's future rate cuts will be slower and delayed [1] - If Fed Chair Powell maintains a relatively neutral policy outlook, the dollar's interest rate attractiveness may further increase [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury announced a refinancing plan with a quarterly issuance of $125 billion, aligning with expectations, while increasing the sales of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) to maintain their market share [1][2] - The Treasury plans to issue over $1 trillion in bonds this quarter, partly to replenish cash reserves at the Federal Reserve, with a preference for short-term debt issuance [1][2] - The Treasury's borrowing strategy indicates that short-term debt will continue to rise, with a recommendation to keep it at around 20% of total outstanding debt [2] Group 2 - The Treasury is significantly expanding its bond repurchase program, with an annual target exceeding $300 billion, including increased liquidity support for long-term nominal securities [3] - The net borrowing for the last three months of the year is expected to be $590 billion, with this quarter estimated at $1.01 trillion due to the need to rebuild cash reserves after the debt ceiling increase [3] - Despite expectations of economic growth, substantial borrowing needs are anticipated in the coming years [3]

今天分享的是：2025银行稳定币专题：从金融角度看稳定币市场影响篇 报告共计：26页 稳定币如何重塑全球金融格局？从央行到资产市场的深层影响解析 近年来，稳定币作为一种锚定法币或实物资产的数字凭证，正逐渐走进全球金融视野。这种被视为"现金和存款代币化产物"的 加密资产，虽非独立货币，却凭借区块链技术的高效流通特性，对传统金融系统产生着日益深远的影响。从央行货币政策到商 业银行运营，从支付清算基础设施到各类金融资产价格，稳定币的渗透正在悄然改写金融市场的运行逻辑。 稳定币与央行：货币政策的新变量 在全球主要经济体中，稳定币对中央银行的影响尤为显著。以美联储为例，稳定币的快速发展正从多个维度扰动其货币调控体 系。随着稳定币持有美国国债的规模持续增长，市场预测到2028年这一规模可能达到1.6万亿美元，相当于当前美联储国债持有 量的38%。这意味着美联储可能被迫调整国债持有结构，通过减持国债、增加再贷款等方式维持货币体系平衡。 更值得关注的是，稳定币的跨境流动可能冲击央行货币互换机制。当资金通过稳定币在不同国家快速迁移时，传统的跨境资本 调控工具效果被削弱，尤其在新兴市场，这种流动可能加剧本地货币汇率波动。同时，稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Lianhe Securities on July 30 recommends a "buy" rating for Chifeng Gold (600988.SH) based on its strong operational capabilities and favorable market conditions for gold in the upcoming quarters [2] Group 1: Company Operations - Chifeng Gold manages and operates four gold mines domestically, which forms the foundation of its gold supply system [2] - The company also manages and operates two gold mines internationally, representing a strategic attempt at internationalization [2] Group 2: Resource and Cost Management - The company possesses excellent resource endowments and demonstrates outstanding cost control capabilities [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Although short-term gold prices may face pressure, the expected downside is limited, with potential upward opportunities in the fourth quarter driven by anticipated liquidity easing from a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2]

油价大幅拉升！ 当地时间7月29日（周二），美国股市三大股指全线收跌。中概股亦多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.35%。消息面上，市场等待美联储即将公布的 货币政策会议结果，市场普遍预期将维持基准利率不变。 国际油价大涨。当地时间7月29日，美油、布油盘中涨幅均超过4%。 美股银行股多数走低，花旗集团跌1.10%，富国银行跌0.54%，美国银行跌0.52%，摩根大通跌0.44%；摩根士丹利涨0.73%。 能源股涨跌互现，壳牌涨逾1%，雪佛龙涨0.50%；西方石油跌0.15%，斯伦贝谢跌0.97%。 近日，市场等待美联储即将公布的货币政策会议结果，市场普遍预期将维持基准利率不变，但关注点或在于是否会释放降息的信号。近期美国总统特朗普 仍持续施压美联储，要求美联储降息。 中概股多数下跌 美国股市三大股指全线收跌 当地时间7月29日（周二），美国股市三大股指全线收跌，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数跌0.46%，报44632.99点，标准普尔500指数跌0.3%，报6370.86点， 纳斯达克综合指数跌0.38%，报21098.29点。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

美联储政策观察 7 月议息：看点是联储内部分歧 2025 年 07 月 30 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 分析师：邵翔 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100524080007 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 研究助理：武朔 执业证号：S0100125070003 邮箱：wushuo@mszq.com ➢ 7 月议息会议既"缺乏悬念"，又"充满看点"。缺乏悬念在于，无论是从已 公布的通胀和非农的数据，还是近期美联储官员的表态（支持观望的更多），不降 息似乎已经是"盖棺定论"。但充满看点则在于，面对外部政治、经济压力，内部 的意见分歧，鲍威尔乃至美联储如何"火中取栗"：既不被控诉失去独立性，又能 护美国经济周全。"降得让人心服口服"可能是鲍威尔剩余任期内最核心的难题。 7 月议息会议可能是破题的第一次尝试。 ➢ 具体而言： ➢ 其一，7 月的 FOMC 会议就像一场"狼人杀"。最令人瞩目的是一贯保持"团 结"的理事们，在保持利 ...