近期人民币汇率加速升值，中间价和 CNH 上周均回到 7.10 附近，CNY 回到 7.13 附近。年内汇率存在破 7 的可能性。 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 相关报告 1、《人民币何时破 7？——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-08-31 2、《港股上市央国企动态系列 报告之 1——东风集团股份宣布 私有化退市，港股央国企推进 战略整合》2025-08-31 3、《美联储独立性或受挑战； 特朗普关税再被判违法——— 国际时政周评》2025-08-31 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 01 日 人民币中间价为何加速升值 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 33 期） 频率：每周 上周美元兑人民币汇率中间价升值至 7.10 附近，环比升值 0.4%，而年初至 今中间价升值幅度为 1.2%，换句话说，上周中间价的升值幅度约为年初至 今的三分之一左右。受中间价加速升值的影响，上周美元兑人民币即期汇 ...

特朗普已提名其经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰填补因另一名理事库格勒辞职产生的空缺。参议院将于本周四举行听证会。 后者很可能赶得上参加本月16日开始的美联储议息会议。而目前接替鲍威尔呼声最高的沃勒已明确支持降息25个 基点。 库克于2022年5月被拜登任命为美联储理事，是美联储首位非裔女性理事。她的任期原本应到2038年结束。今年以 来，她一直支持美联储观望，拒绝因特朗普施压而降息。 在上周五的听证会上，代表白宫的司法部律师Yaakov Roth辩称，1913年通过的《联邦储备法》以开放式的语言定 义了"正当理由"，赋予了总统关于美联储成员任免广泛的自由裁量权。而美联储则没有表明立场，但表示希望迅 速作出裁决，以消除不确定性。 《联邦储备法》允许总统"因故"罢免在任理事。此前"故"字的内涵被解读为渎职、严重行为不端和其他影响美联 储理事履职能力的情况。 美国总统特朗普解雇美联储理事库克案听证会于上周五结束，华盛顿法官贾·科布（Jia Cobb）未立即做出裁决。 这意味着库克目前暂时得以留任。 科布要求库克的律师于本周二之前提交简报，以便更详细地阐述他们为何认为特朗普解雇库克是非法行为。 今年45岁的科布于2021年由时任 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The discussion among financial institutions highlighted the future direction of China's capital markets, focusing on global economic trends, changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and investment strategies in the Chinese market [1] - ICBC International's Chief Economist Cheng Shi noted that both A-shares and H-shares have moved out of valuation troughs and entered a phase of value re-evaluation, indicating a "slow bull" market trend in China's capital markets [1][4] - Standard Chartered's Chief Investment Strategist Wang Xinjie emphasized that Hong Kong stocks will continue to attract overseas investment due to their high dividend yields and growth potential in emerging industries [3] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Cheng Shi described the current state of the Chinese economy as "steady with progress," supported by factors such as consumption recovery, industrial upgrades, and diversified foreign trade [4] - Despite recent economic slowdown due to weather impacts, Wang Xinjie stated that the overall growth rate remains above the 5% target set last year [4] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Cheng Shi suggested focusing on proactive fiscal policies, moderate monetary easing, and breaking down barriers to domestic market construction to release economic dividends [4] - Wang Xinjie indicated that policy efforts in the second half of the year will primarily focus on "sustained efforts" while retaining the flexibility for "timely increases" [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy - Cheng Shi predicted that the Federal Reserve may adjust its policy with a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 to 75 basis points throughout the year, considering employment risks [7] - Market expectations suggest a high probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in September [7] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Wang Xinjie expressed a bullish outlook on stocks for the next 6 to 12 months, while also acknowledging short-term risks [9] - He recommended reallocating funds from U.S. investments to Asian stocks (excluding Japan) while maintaining core holdings in Japanese and European stocks, and focusing on emerging market local currency bonds [9]

Group 1 - The latest inflation data in the U.S. indicates a profound structural divergence in price pressures within the economy, presenting unprecedented challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2] - In July, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated at an annualized rate of 4.4%, marking the third consecutive month of strong momentum, particularly driven by persistent inflation in the service sector [1][2] - In contrast, durable goods prices experienced a monthly decline with an annualized decrease of 1.3%, reflecting the impact of tariffs and consumer resistance to high prices [1][2] Group 2 - The divergence in inflation dynamics highlights the complexity of the U.S. inflation landscape, with service sector inflation, especially in non-housing services, becoming a primary driver of overall price increases [1][2] - The characteristics of the service sector make it more challenging to suppress prices, as many essential services lack transparent price comparison mechanisms and face insufficient market competition [1][2] - Conversely, the durable goods market is experiencing different dynamics, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive due to tightened monetary policy, leading businesses to adopt discounting and promotional strategies to maintain sales [1][2] Group 3 - Despite tariffs being seen as a potential factor for rising goods prices, U.S. companies have accumulated substantial profits over the past few years, providing them with ample capacity to absorb tariff costs, thereby limiting the transmission effect of tariffs on final consumer prices [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma as its 2% inflation target is continuously challenged by persistent core service sector inflation, with the core PCE price index's annualized growth rate reaching 3.3% in July, significantly above target levels [2] - Overall PCE and core PCE year-on-year growth rates have accelerated for three consecutive months, indicating a worsening inflation situation despite a decline in energy prices, which has had limited impact on core inflation [2] Group 4 - The structural divergence in inflation necessitates the Federal Reserve to weigh multiple factors in policy formulation, as excessive focus on declining goods prices may underestimate the stubbornness of service sector inflation, potentially leading to uncontrolled inflation expectations [2] - Conversely, overly tightening measures to curb service sector inflation could unnecessarily impact the goods sector and overall economic growth [2] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue to closely monitor service sector inflation developments and may maintain high interest rates for an extended period, with the possibility of further rate hikes to ensure inflation returns to target [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with London gold reaching $3440 per ounce and COMEX gold surpassing $3500 per ounce, reflects heightened market interest and potential investment opportunities in the gold sector due to inflation concerns and anticipated changes in U.S. monetary policy [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - London gold experienced a sharp increase, breaking through the $3430 per ounce mark to reach $3440 per ounce, with an intraday gain exceeding 0.7% [1]. - COMEX gold also rose, reaching $3503.5 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.9% [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, indicating stable consumer spending but rising inflationary pressures [5]. - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rise from 2.8% in June to 2.9%, slightly above market expectations [5]. - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 61.7 in July to 58.2 in August, reflecting consumer anxiety about future economic conditions [5]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions and Market Trends - Analysts from Fidelity International suggest that the gold bull market could persist for many years, driven by factors such as declining interest rates and high inflation [6]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by ownership changes rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics [6]. - JPMorgan forecasts that central bank gold purchases could reach approximately 850 tons by 2025, contributing to a faster-than-expected rise in gold prices [6]. - Bank of America analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, potentially reaching $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, as inflation and potential interest rate cuts create favorable conditions for gold [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in gold prices, with London gold reaching $3440 per ounce, driven by market reactions to inflation data and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - London gold prices spiked to $3440 per ounce, marking an increase of over 0.7% [2]. - COMEX gold also saw a rise, reaching $3503.5 per ounce with a daily increase of 0.9% [4][5]. - The highest price recorded for London gold during this surge was $3440.082, while the lowest was $3404.185 [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Commerce Department reported a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the PCE price index for July, with a year-over-year increase of 2.6% [6]. - The core PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase from 2.8% to 2.9% [6]. - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 61.7 in July to 58.2 in August, indicating consumer concerns about inflation and economic conditions [7]. Group 3: Market Predictions and Analyst Insights - Analysts from Goldman Sachs predict gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by factors such as inflation and interest rate changes [7]. - JPMorgan forecasts that central bank gold purchases will reach approximately 850 tons by 2025, contributing to upward pressure on gold prices [8]. - Bank of America analysts expect continued upward momentum in gold prices, potentially reaching $4000 per ounce in the first half of 2026 due to rising inflation and anticipated interest rate cuts [8].

Market Overview - The bond market showed consolidation on August 29, with long-term bonds slightly recovering, while the main contracts of government bond futures experienced mixed results [1] - The interbank bond yields generally fell by about 1 basis point, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative liquidity environment with a net injection of 421.7 billion yuan in the open market [1][5] Bond Futures Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase for most contracts, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.01% to 116.550, while the 10-year main contract remained unchanged at 107.810 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds decreased slightly, with the 30-year special government bond yield falling by 0.75 basis points to 2.025% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield rising by 1.64 basis points to 3.627%, while the 10-year yield fell by 3.29 basis points to 4.201% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields continued to decline, with the 10-year yield down by 2.5 basis points to 1.595% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, indicating a general trend of falling yields across major European markets [3] Primary Market - The China Export-Import Bank issued 2-year and 3-year financial bonds with yields of 1.66% and 1.7948%, respectively, showing strong demand with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.01 and 2.23 [4] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 782.9 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 421.7 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 1.5 basis points to 1.331%, while the 7-day rate fell by 1.6 basis points to 1.51% [5] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the recent comments from Fed Chair Powell indicated a dovish stance, raising expectations for a potential rate cut in September [6] - Zheshang Securities highlighted a cautious outlook for the bond market in September, with a preference for medium- to short-term bonds and convertible bonds, while sentiment towards local government bonds and high-grade urban investment bonds has weakened [6][7]

近日，美联储理事沃勒就货币政策走向发表重要观点，预计联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将在9月降息25个基 点，且未来3 - 6个月还将继续推进降息进程，这一表态为市场对美联储货币政策的预期提供了关键指引。 沃勒指出，当前支持美联储降息的依据相较于7月份更为充分和强烈。近期，劳动力市场状况成为美联储决策的重 要考量因素。沃勒强调，供给侧的变化并非是出现不佳就业数据的原因，同时他认为关注就业数据的质量以及收 集方式十分必要。目前，劳动力市场面临的下行风险显著加重，这一态势使得美联储在货币政策调整上需更加谨 慎且灵活。 对于即将到来的下一份非农就业报告，沃勒表示其可能会改变自己对于9月潜在降息幅度的看法。不过，就现阶段 情况而言，他认为9月份降息幅度可能无需超过25个基点。这一观点既体现了美联储对经济数据的敏感性，也显示 出其在货币政策调整上的稳健态度，避免因过度降息引发市场波动或其他潜在风险。 在货币政策整体态势方面，沃勒称美联储货币政策具有"适度的限制性"。这意味着当前货币政策既在一定程度上 对经济活动起到约束作用，以防止经济过热和通胀失控，又未过度紧缩而阻碍经济的正常增长。这种"适度限制 性"的货币政策定位，旨 ...

BOSS Wallet 8月28日讯，比特币市场再次成为全球投资者关注的焦点。BOSS Wallet数据显示，比特币 价格突破$112,018.34，24小时涨幅达0.54%，交易量达$627.99亿。然而，市场波动性依然显著：最近4 小时K线显示价格大幅下跌，虽比前日有所回升，但大阴柱和收盘价低于开盘价的表现，暗示短期内卖 压增加。交易量上升与价格下降的组合，进一步表明市场情绪趋于谨慎。 在这样的背景下，杠杆交易成为许多投资者放大收益或对冲风险的工具。然而，高杠杆也意味着高风 险，尤其是当市场出现剧烈波动时，清算风险急剧上升。例如，据BOSS Wallet报道，投资者James Wynn最近以10倍杠杆开设DOGE多头头寸，开仓价为0.21298美元，清算价仅略低于此，凸显了杠杆交 易的脆弱性。 与此同时，比特币二层网络GOAT Network宣布启动以原生BTC为基础的生态激励基金，为比特币应用 生态注入新动能。这一创新举措不仅推动了zkRollup技术的落地，也为杠杆交易者提供了更多元化的底 层基础设施支持。 图片来源： BOSS Wallet 一、比特币杠杆交易的市场表现与技术分析 据BOSS钱包AP ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the Federal Reserve's recent policy adjustments and the implications of inflation and employment risks in the U.S. economy [1][2][3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted the fragile balance in the labor market and the potential need for interest rate cuts to address rising employment risks and economic slowdown [1] - The recent review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework resulted in the abandonment of the average inflation targeting strategy, reaffirming a long-term inflation target of 2% [2] Group 2 - The articles discuss the historical context of inflation management, noting that the Fed's previous strategies were more proactive in addressing inflation risks, contrasting with the current reactive approach [3] - The impact of external factors, such as the pandemic, on the U.S. economy is emphasized, indicating that the current economic cycle is distinct from previous ones due to its origins in external shocks rather than internal financial factors [3] - Powell's remarks suggest a shift in focus towards maintaining maximum employment in a context of price stability, indicating a nuanced understanding of the complexities of the labor market and inflation dynamics [3]