周六的一个小组讨论将邀请英国央行行长贝利、欧洲央行行长拉加德和日本央行行长植田和男，他们将 讨论本次会议的主题：转型中的劳动力市场对政策意味着什么。 每年八月底，美国怀俄明都会发生一件世界金融市场最关注的事件之一：杰克逊霍尔央行年会。这是对 全球各大央行货币政策的一次关键考验，不过，美联储主席的风头比以往任何时候都更加引人注目。 继上个月按兵不动后，美联储必须明确其未来战略：恢复降息还是继续保持谨慎? 美联储主席鲍威尔将于纽约时间周五上午10点（北京时间周五晚10点）发表讲话，这很可能成为本次会 议对华尔街而言的重头戏。 若无意外，这将是鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔上的最后一次演讲 ，在信号相互矛盾的经济背景下，他的每一 句话都将是决定性的线索。 在今年一直维持利率不变以评估关税将如何影响经济之后，美联储可能即将再次降低利率。鲍威尔本周 可能会暗示他的同事们是倾向于哪一方。在通胀高于美联储2%目标的同时，招聘活动也在降温，官员 们迄今为止对于能多快降息存在分歧。 市场定价显示，投资者预计美联储9月份会降息，随后在今年晚些时候至少还会有一次降息。作为美联 储的常客批评者，美国总统特朗普已要求鲍威尔及其同事大幅降低利率，政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement six rate cuts of 25 basis points each over the next 18 months, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to 3.0% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market has shown significant signs of slowing down [1] - Inflation conditions have improved markedly compared to three years ago [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Leadership - Stephen Milan's upcoming addition to the Federal Reserve Board and the anticipated new chair replacing Jerome Powell by May suggest a downward trend in interest rates over the next 18 months [1]

Group 1 - Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September is around 40% [1] - The current labor market is characterized by instability, with initial jobless claims showing small layoffs but an increase in continuing claims indicating longer job search periods [1] - Concerns are raised about persistent high service sector inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for services remaining in the 3%-4% range [1] - Despite challenges, the delay in rate cuts is seen as a positive signal reflecting economic resilience and the fact that inflation has not yet reached the 2% target [1] - Corporate earnings exceeded expectations, with second-quarter profits reaching a historical high and a year-on-year growth rate close to 11%, significantly above the previous market expectation of 3% [1] Group 2 - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of interest rate cuts are becoming apparent, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester opposing rate cuts due to high inflation [2] - Mester emphasizes the importance of maintaining a moderate tightening policy to bring inflation back to target levels [2] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George believes inflation risks are slightly higher than employment market risks, stating that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned [2] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic views the current monetary policy as slightly restrictive and anticipates a return to neutral interest rates by 2026, suggesting only one rate cut this year [2] Group 3 - Bostic maintains a single-direction trajectory for interest rates amid economic uncertainty, expecting clearer economic outlooks later this year [3] - He notes that inflation has been stable in the 2.5%-2.8% range, above the Fed's 2% target, while signs of weakening in the labor market are emerging [3] - Recent downward revisions in non-farm payrolls for May and June indicate a significant reduction in job creation, although single data points do not establish a trend [3] - The statements from Fed officials come ahead of the Jackson Hole central bank conference, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech will be closely monitored for hints regarding the September monetary policy meeting [3]

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole global central bank conference is being closely watched, particularly for comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with concerns about hawkish signals potentially causing market volatility [1] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that inflation pressures have not subsided and there is currently no basis for immediate rate cuts, emphasizing an open-minded approach to each meeting [2] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid noted that inflation is closer to 3% than 2%, warning that premature easing could harm public expectations, and highlighted that the current interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% has not significantly restrained the economy [2] Group 2 - The theme of this year's conference focuses on the labor market, which has alleviated some investor concerns about the Fed emphasizing inflation and independence [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are close to 80%, with potential for four cuts over the next year, although some strategists caution that optimism regarding easing may be excessive [2] - Political pressures are mounting, with President Trump criticizing Powell for not cutting rates promptly and calling for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook due to alleged violations related to a mortgage application [6]

Group 1 - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 11,000 to 235,000 for the week ending August 16, marking the largest rise in nearly three months, indicating a potential increase in layoffs and a weakening labor market [1] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the average monthly job growth over the past three months was 35,000 positions, reflecting a trend of "low layoffs and weak hiring" as companies adjust to trade policies [1] - Continuing jobless claims rose by 30,000 to 1.972 million for the week ending August 9, reaching the highest level since November 2021 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is being closely watched by the market, particularly for signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with concerns about potential hawkish signals leading to market volatility [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that inflation pressures have not subsided, and there is currently no basis for immediate rate cuts, emphasizing an open-minded approach to each meeting [3] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid noted that inflation is closer to 3% than 2%, warning that premature easing could harm public expectations, and the current interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% has not significantly restrained the economy [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are nearly 80%, with potential for four cuts over the next year, although some strategists caution that optimism regarding easing may be excessive [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the current Jackson Hole meeting occurs during a complex market environment, with a clear dovish bias, but unexpected hawkish signals could arise if inflation resurges or political pressures increase [4] - The S&P 500 index has seen a decline for five consecutive days, reflecting market uncertainty and reactions to Fed signals [7] Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Political Pressure - The July Fed meeting minutes indicate that most officials prioritize inflation risks over labor market concerns, with political pressures from the Trump administration exacerbating internal disagreements [6] - Recent economic data, including a weaker employment report and a surprisingly strong producer price index, have complicated the policy outlook [6] - Political pressure is mounting as President Trump criticizes Powell for not cutting rates promptly and calls for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could influence the Fed's policy direction if his preferred candidate is appointed [6]

2025.08. 22 本文字数：1288，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间8月21日，杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会在美国怀俄明州召开。市场高度关注美联储主席鲍威尔 将在22日的讲话，担心他释放鹰派信号，引发新一轮市场震荡。与此同时，多位地区联储主席在会 议间隙接受采访，传递出偏谨慎的态度。 宽松预期或过度 21日，克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克（Beth Hammack）直言，通胀压力尚未消退，目前缺乏立即降息 的依据。她表示将"以开放心态对待每一次会议"，但现有数据并不足以支撑政策放松。 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Jeff Schmid）的表态更为直接。他提到，通胀"仍更接近3%而非 2%"，若过早放松政策，可能损害公众预期。他强调，现行4.25%至4.5%的利率区间"并未对经济 造成明显抑制"，因此没有理由仓促行动。"最后一段路最难，"施密德表示，美联储必须谨慎评估降 息对通胀心态的长期影响。 今年年会的主题聚焦劳动力市场，这让部分投资者对央行可能强调通胀和独立性的担忧暂时缓解。东 京资产管理公司Simplex基金经理千叶（Chiba）分析称："一度有人猜测央行官员会释放更强硬的 内部分歧与政治 ...

美联储哈马克：劳动力市场合理良好且保持平衡。 来源：滚动播报 ...

哈马克在接受采访时指出："当前通胀过高，并在过去一年呈上升趋势。根据我掌握的信息，如果会议 在明天召开，我看不到降低利率的理由。" 哈马克的表态正值杰克逊霍尔央行年会前夕，美联储主席鲍威尔将于周五发表备受关注的演讲，投资者 将密切关注其对9月货币政策会议可能动作的暗示。美联储下一次政策会议定于9月16日至17日在华盛顿 召开。 智通财经报道，克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周四表示，如果美联储明天召开货币政策会议，她不会支持降 息。 此外，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德表示，他认为通胀风险略高于就业市场风险，但当前货币政策处于合适 位置。施密德指出："当你逐渐接近最优的双重使命目标时，实际上更难在边际上决定政策利率应该走 向何处。我认为政策略有紧缩，但我们走在正确道路上。"他同时提到，最近几个月通胀有所加快，并 且企业能将部分进口成本上涨转嫁给消费者。 她同时承认市场对劳动力市场的担忧，但表示失业率仍接近她所估算的最大就业水平。哈马克强 调："从整体平衡来看，维持温和的紧缩政策立场非常重要，以继续将通胀率拉回目标水平。" 与此同时，美国劳工部最新数据显示，截至8月16日当周，美国初请失业救济人数经季调后增加1.1万至 23.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has changed, with market participants now estimating a 70% probability of a rate cut during the upcoming meeting [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Statements - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicated concerns about the labor market and inflation, with most officials believing it is too early to cut rates [1][5]. - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated she would not support a rate cut if a decision were to be made immediately, citing persistent high inflation [4]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed that only one rate cut this year would be appropriate, emphasizing the need for consistent direction in policy actions [4][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets experienced slight declines, with the S&P 500 index falling for the fifth consecutive day, and Walmart's stock dropped over 4% despite exceeding sales expectations [1]. - In contrast, Chinese assets saw significant gains, with the Chinese concept stock index rising over 1%, and companies like Xpeng and NIO experiencing stock increases of over 10% [2]. Group 3: Investigations and Controversies - The U.S. Department of Justice is planning to investigate Fed Governor Lisa Cook, urging Fed Chair Powell to remove her from the board [4]. - Cook has publicly stated her intention to remain on the board, asserting that she will not resign due to external pressures [4].