美国克利夫兰联邦储备银行主席贝丝·哈马克本周一公开表示，在当前美国通胀水平持续高于百分之二目标值的情况下，美联储在放松货币政策时需要保持 高度谨慎。这一表态凸显出美联储内部对于是否继续推进降息进程存在明显分歧。 哈马克的谨慎立场得到多位同僚呼应。同日，圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆表示，虽然支持上周的降息决定作为应对劳动力市场风险的预防措施， 但在通胀高企的背景下，进一步降息的空间有限。亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克也明确表态，对此次降息感到满意，但认为今年无需进一步放宽政 策。 不过美联储内部并非铁板一块。新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰同日发声展现出鲜明鸽派立场，认为当前利率水平过高，呼吁未来数月应大幅快速降息，以避免 劳动力市场出现不必要的恶化。 上周美联储宣布下调利率二十五个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至百分之四点零至四点二五，这是过去九个月来首次 降息。然而最新公布的点阵图透露出深刻分歧：十九位政策制定者中，十位预计今年还将降息两次或更多，另外九位则认为至多再降息一次甚至无需进一步 行动。 未来一周，包括鲍威尔在内的十余位联储官员将陆续发表讲话，市场正密切关注这些表态以寻找政策走向线索。根据芝加哥商品交 ...

作者：李丹，华尔街见闻 美联储内部对进一步降息的谨慎态度正在显现。两名美联储官员最新的表态显示，他们认为继续宽松的 空间有限，给上周降息后今年继续行动的前景泼了冷水。 今年拥有美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆（Alberto Musalem）本 周一表示，他支持上周降息，但预计进一步宽松的空间有限，如果不让政策变得过于宽松的话。 2027年拥有FOMC投票权的亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）同日表示，由于担心通胀，他 目前认为今年没有理由进一步降息。此后，2026年有FOMC会议投票权的克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克 （Beth Hammack）也表达了对通胀的担忧，称非常担心通胀，必须谨慎宽松，以免导致经济过热。 三名官员的共同观点反映了美联储内部对通胀风险的持续关注。虽然劳动力市场的风险有所上升，但长 期高于目标的通胀仍是这些决策者的主要担忧。这一立场可能影响美联储今年剩余两次会议的利率政策 走向。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的发布会上称，就业下行成为实质性风险；本次属于风险管理型降息；降息50 个基点并未得到广泛支持；极为罕见的经济局势导致联储利率预测分歧大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is showing a cautious attitude towards further interest rate cuts, with officials expressing concerns about inflation risks and limited room for additional easing after the recent rate cut [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - St. Louis Fed President Musalem supports the recent rate cut but believes further easing is limited unless inflation risks do not increase [1][3]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic does not see a need for further rate cuts this year, citing concerns about prolonged high inflation [1][3][4]. - Cleveland Fed President Hammack emphasizes the need for caution in monetary policy to avoid overheating the economy, expressing significant worries about inflation [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Bostic predicts the core inflation rate will rise from 2.9% in July to 3.1% by year-end, with unemployment slightly increasing to 4.5% [3][4]. - Hammack notes that inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for four consecutive years and may remain elevated in the coming years [5]. - Musalem highlights that while tariffs have not had the expected impact on prices, other factors are pushing inflation higher, necessitating continued vigilance from the Fed [5]. Group 3: Labor Market Insights - Bostic acknowledges that while there are risks to the labor market, he does not believe it is currently in crisis, attributing some hiring slowdowns to labor supply constraints [4]. - Hammack points out that despite recent employment growth slowing, the labor market remains strong, as evidenced by low layoff numbers and a low unemployment rate [5].

Group 1: China Macro - The ICHI Composite Economic Index remains in the contraction zone, but shows slight improvement compared to last week, indicating marginal economic recovery[1] - The consumption index is still in contraction, suggesting that consumer spending momentum needs to be restored[1] - The production index has fallen back into contraction, reflecting volatility in supply-side recovery, although investment remains a core support for stable growth[1] - The investment index remains in the expansion zone, indicating that investment continues to support economic stability[1] - The export index has stabilized at the edge of expansion, showing resilience in Chinese exports despite weak global demand[1] Group 2: Global Macro - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year[6] - The Canadian central bank also cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%, with a cautious stance on future policy directions[6] - The UK central bank maintained its benchmark rate at 4%, emphasizing a cautious approach due to rising inflation risks[7] - In the U.S., initial jobless claims fell to 231,000, below market expectations, but the number of continuing claims remains above 1.9 million, indicating challenges in the labor market[8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments, suggesting a potential for rate cuts in the near future, with a target rate of 3.5% by Q3 2026 [1][9]. Core Insights - Economic growth is slowing due to reduced immigration, declining government spending, and stagnation in healthcare employment, but inflation is not a primary concern [1][3]. - Emerging technologies are driving capital investment, leading to economic growth, although companies prioritize profit margins over labor input, resulting in stagnant wage growth and hiring [1][4]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a cautious rate-cutting cycle, with inflation not anticipated to be a significant issue in the next 6-9 months [8]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth and Labor Market - Current economic conditions show a bifurcated landscape, with emerging technologies contributing to capital investment while companies focus on profit margins, leading to stagnant wage growth and hiring [4][11]. - Existing labor income is growing at an annual rate of 3.7%, but new job creation is stagnant [4]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, with some members advocating for rate hikes while the majority favors further cuts [5][6]. - The probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in October and December is higher than a pause, influenced by upcoming employment data [6]. Inflation and Future Projections - Inflation is not expected to be a major issue in the near term, allowing the Federal Reserve to approach a cautious rate-cutting cycle [8]. - By the end of 2026, the Federal Reserve may need to consider inflation concerns as credit expansion and emerging technologies impact the labor market [9]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for interest rates are around 3%, with a potential low of 2.85%, indicating uncertainty in the market [10]. - Emerging markets, such as Brazil and South Korea, are highlighted as areas of interest due to potential structural reforms and asymmetric opportunities [14].

重磅数据或将扰动美联储降息前景。 在美联储重启降息后，美股三大指数本周集体创出历史新高。根据日程安排，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——美国8月核心PCE物价指数将于9月26日发布。另外，美 联储官员们也将于下周密集发声，或将释放后续货币政策走向的信号。 站在当前时点，华尔街正押注美联储未来将更快、更大幅度地降息。据LSEG数据，期货市场押注美联储基准短期利率将在明年年底降至3%以下，远低于当前略高 于4%的水平，也低于美联储官员们预测的3.4%。 重磅数据来袭 受美联储降息提振，美股本周持续走强，三大指数均创出历史新高，纳指、标普500指数年内累计涨幅分别超17%、13%。 目前华尔街一致预期，美联储将在10月、12月继续降息。美联储也暗示未来将进一步下调利率，以支撑疲弱的劳动力市场。 高盛集团对冲基金业务主管Tony Pasquariello在最新发布的报告中指出，美联储已明确表示，后续还计划进行一系列降息，股票市场显然已经嗅到了这一积极信号。 看涨叙事并未因上周的美联储会议而动摇，反而推动周期股相对防御股的走势再创新高。 展望下周，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——美国8月核心PCE物价指数即将出炉。 市场将借此评估关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the labor market is not in a bad state, but it requires close monitoring [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari emphasizes the importance of vigilance regarding labor market conditions [1]

Group 1 - Silver T+D trading is currently above 9901, with an opening at 9853 and a current price of 9934, reflecting a 1.06% increase [1] - The highest price reached was 9944, while the lowest was 9805, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the silver market [1] - The daily chart shows continued upward oscillation in silver T+D prices, with significant resistance levels at 9976-10000 and support levels at 9700-9805 [4] Group 2 - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 were recorded at 231,000, lower than the market expectation of 240,000 and down from the previous week's 263,000 [3] - This marks the largest decline in initial jobless claims in nearly four years, suggesting that companies are inclined to retain existing employees despite economic uncertainties [3] - However, signs of labor market weakness are emerging, with a significant slowdown in job growth and a cooling in both supply and demand for labor [3] Group 3 - A technical error led to a significant underestimation of jobless claims in North Carolina by over 19,000, with the correct figure expected to be around 19,355 instead of the reported 205 [4] - Following the correction, it is anticipated that the national continuing jobless claims will increase by approximately 20,000, maintaining levels consistent with previous weeks [4]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on September 18, with an opening price of $3684.11 per ounce, a high of $3704.51, a low of $3627.92, and a closing price of $3641.27 [1] Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 was reported at 231,000, lower than the market expectation of 240,000 and down from the previous week's 263,000 [2] - This marks the largest decline in initial claims in nearly four years, indicating that companies are still inclined to retain employees despite economic uncertainties [2] - However, signs of labor market weakness are emerging, with a significant slowdown in job growth and a cooling in both labor supply and demand [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with the lowest point reaching $3627 during the trading session, followed by a slight recovery to close at $3643 [8] - The daily chart indicates a small bearish candle, suggesting a potential top formation, while the short-term indicators are showing a downward trend [8] - The hourly chart reflects a bearish sentiment, with prices stabilizing below key moving averages, indicating a cautious trading approach [8] Trading Strategy - For aggressive traders, a buy position can be initiated at $2627 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and a profit target above $3640 [9] - For conservative traders, a buy position can be initiated at $3612 with similar stop loss and profit target parameters [10] - For short positions, aggressive entry can be at $3658 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and a target below $3647, while a more conservative entry can be at $3668 with a target below $3655 [10]

Market Overview - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations, particularly in the 10-year yield, following recent Federal Reserve announcements and press conferences [1][3] - Recent data has shown a decline in short-term yields, influenced by the Fed's updated projections indicating potential rate cuts [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut rates and projected two additional cuts for the year, reflecting a somewhat dovish stance [4] - Economic projections from the Fed indicate stronger growth and a lower unemployment rate compared to previous forecasts [4] Inflation and Labor Market - Inflation remains high but is not accelerating, while there are concerns about a potential slowdown in the labor market [5][10] - The Fed's approach appears to be more about risk management rather than initiating a consistent rate-cutting cycle [5][11] Long-term Yield Outlook - There are mixed expectations regarding long-term yields, with some analysts predicting they may not decrease in tandem with short-term rates [8][9] - Concerns about budget issues and elevated inflation may lead to demands for higher yields from investors [9][10] Conclusion - The Fed's current strategy may support stable long-term yields, suggesting a more cautious approach to monetary policy moving forward [11]