"汉语盘点2025"活动日前发布"年度字词"评选各组前五位年度候选字和前五位年度候选词。 "汉语盘点2025"活动由国家语言资源监测与研究中心、商务印书馆、新华网等单位联合主办，11月20日 在京启动。据主办方介绍，活动启动后受到社会广泛关注和全民热情参与。12月19日，在综合网友推荐 和专家评议基础上，活动将从以上各组前五位年度候选字和前五位年度候选词中，各揭晓一个字和一个 词，作为"2025年度字词"。（记者杨湛菲） 前五位年度国内候选字为"韧""创""融""智""通"，前五位年度国内候选词为"十五五""深度求索 （DeepSeek）""九三阅兵""苏超""具身智能"；前五位年度国际候选字为"税""抢""界""谈""硬"，前五位 年度国际候选词为"地缘政治""无人机""稀土""草台班子""关税"。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Crude Oil - Wednesday saw a rebound in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the Fed's interest - rate cut. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Short - term Brent crude is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel. Keep an eye on the US - Venezuela situation and Russia - Ukraine negotiations [1]. Natural Rubber - Overseas supply increase expectations are rising, and upstream cost support is weakening, but the market may have speculative sentiment. Demand from the tire industry is gradually recovering, but overall capacity utilization improvement is limited. Market inventory is being digested. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [4]. Urea - Urea futures fluctuated and closed higher. Shandong Ruixing's production reduction boosted the spot price in the central region. Downstream demand and export orders reduced the inventory pressure. However, the overall supply - demand outlook is weak, and the price rebound space is limited. Short - term urea is expected to continue to fluctuate between 1630 - 1700 [6]. Methanol - Methanol futures oscillated at a low level. The inland supply increased, but profits were weak. The traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. Port imports are expected to decline significantly, and the port de - stocking expectation is strengthened, but the current overseas shipments are still high. Continue to pay attention to MTO05 [7]. Polyolefins - The fundamentals of polyolefins show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting. Polypropylene's supply - side maintenance is high, but there is an expectation of an increase. Polyethylene's supply is increasing, and the upstream inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash's supply is high, demand is shrinking, and it is expected to return to the inventory - accumulation pattern. The overall situation is bearish, and short positions can be held. Glass prices were affected by real - estate news, and the current short - term demand has support, but the medium - and long - term outlook is not optimistic [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's supply and demand are under pressure, and prices are expected to continue to weaken. PVC's supply pressure remains high, demand is weak, and the overall situation is in an oversupply pattern, with prices expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 7000 in the short term. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4500 - 4800 in the short term, and TA5 - 9 can be long - short hedged at a low level. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level, and short - term observation is recommended. Short - fiber prices are expected to follow the raw materials and oscillate weakly. Bottle - chip prices follow the cost and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG No specific view on the trend of LPG is provided in the report, only price, inventory, and开工率 data are presented [19]. Benzene - Styrene - Benzene's short - term supply - demand is weak, and BZ2603 may follow the oil price and styrene fluctuations. Styrene's supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the upside space is limited, and EB01 is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [21]. Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On December 10, Brent rose 0.44% to $62.21 per barrel, WTI rose 0.36% to $58.46 per barrel, and SC fell 1.11% to 444.30 yuan per barrel. Some spreads also changed [1]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB fell 0.46%, NYM ULSD rose 0.57%, and ICE Gasoil rose 0.16%. Some spreads of refined oil also changed [1]. - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of some refined oil products changed, such as the US gasoline cracking spread fell 3.28% [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rose 1.02%, and the whole - latex basis fell 28.07%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber fell 0.69%, and the non - standard price difference fell 61.68% [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread rose 250.00%, the 1 - 5 spread fell 90.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread rose 50.00% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while India's production increased. Tire开工率 increased slightly, but domestic tire production and export volume decreased. The import volume of natural rubber decreased, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased [4]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory increased, while the outbound rate of dry - rubber bonded warehouses decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of general - trade dry - rubber warehouses increased [4]. Urea - **Futures Price**: The main methanol contract fell 0.63%. Some futures contract spreads and主力持仓 also changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of some upstream raw materials such as anthracite and动力煤 changed slightly [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer remained stable, and the compound fertilizer - urea ratio fell 0.59% [6]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily production increased, coal - based urea daily production increased, and gas - based urea daily production decreased. The weekly production remained stable, the plant - inventory decreased, and the order - days decreased [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices fell. The MA15 spread,太仓基差, and MTO05 changed. The spot prices of some regions remained unchanged [7]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存,港口库存, and社会库存 all decreased [7]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: The upstream domestic企业开工率 increased, the MTO装置开工率 increased, and some downstream开工率 changed slightly [7]. Polyolefins - **Futures Price**: L2601 and L2605 prices changed slightly, and PP2601 and PP2605 prices fell. Some spreads and基差 changed [12]. - **Non - Standard Price**: The prices of some non - standard PE and PP products changed [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased, and PE下游加权开工率 decreased slightly. PP装置开工率 decreased slightly, and PP粉料开工率 increased [12]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 increased, and PE社会库存 decreased. PP企业库存 decreased, and PP贸易商库存 increased [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The prices of glass in some regions and the prices of glass futures contracts changed. The 01基差 increased [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The prices of soda ash in some regions and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased. The 01基差 increased [14]. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率 increased, the weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The浮法日熔量 decreased, and the光伏日熔量 remained unchanged [14]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate changed [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Price**: The prices of some PVC and caustic soda products changed. Some spreads and基差 changed [15]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The overseas quotations of caustic soda and PVC changed, and the export profits also changed [15]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and the PVC industry increased slightly, and the profits of some production processes decreased [15]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products in the chlor - alkali industry changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil,石脑油, and PX changed [16]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased, and the cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX - Related**: The prices and spreads of PX changed [16]. - **PTA - Related**: The prices and spreads of PTA changed. PTA开工率 remained stable, and the processing fee decreased [16]. - **MEG - Related**: The prices and spreads of MEG changed. MEG港口库存 increased, and the综合开工率 decreased slightly [16]. - **开工率 Change**: The开工率 of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the开工率 of亚洲PX, PTA, and MEG [16]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts and some spreads changed. The spot price of South China increased, and the基差 changed [19]. - **External Price**: The prices of FEI and CP swaps increased [19]. - **Inventory**: LPG炼厂库容比,港口库存, and港口库容比 all decreased [19]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: The upstream主营炼开工率 decreased slightly, and the下游PDH开工率 increased [19]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil,石脑油, and pure benzene changed. The spreads of pure benzene also changed [21]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene and its futures contracts changed. The spreads and cash flows also changed [21]. - **Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports changed [21]. - **开工率 Change**: The开工率 of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [21].

在经济方面，叙过渡政府通过从阿塞拜疆、卡塔尔、俄罗斯等国获取天然气和石油，使叙利亚电力供应 得到明显改善。 谋求外交"突破口" 叙过渡政府频频与各方接触，寻求推进和改善与地区国家以及美俄等方关系。 自去年12月8日政局剧变以来，叙利亚过渡政府对内谋求推动各方力量和解、巩固自身政权，对外积极 寻求外交突破、争取获得国际认可。 专家认为，一年来，虽然在内政和外交方面均取得了一定进展，但叙过渡政府依然面临安全局势脆弱、 反恐形势严峻、重建进展缓慢等挑战，过渡进程"如走钢丝"。 寻求稳固政权 内政方面，叙利亚过渡政府在政治、安全和经济上采取了一系列措施，以期推进国内政治进程，稳定国 内局势，稳固自身政权。 在政治领域，叙过渡政府通过召开全国对话会议、制定"宪法宣言"和举行立法机构选举等政治过渡步 骤，充实执政框架。 在安全领域，叙过渡政府推进不同武装力量间的停火与和解。过渡政府与叙库尔德武装主导的"叙利亚 民主力量"签署协议、同意将"叙利亚民主力量"整合进国家机构，与叙利亚德鲁兹派签订实现停火的协 议，还推动"叙利亚沙姆解放武装"和土耳其支持的"叙利亚国民军"下属武装派别改旗易帜、整体编入军 队。 图为日前拍摄的叙利 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 | 讲 | | | | 期货主力合约 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 模 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 持仓量 | 持仓走势 | | 每 | 中国SC原油期货 | 440.50 | -0.86 | 30002 | | | H | 美国WT原油期货 | 58.46 | 0.36 | 144000 | | | 信 | 英国BRENT原油期货 | 62.21 | 0.44 | 532904 | | | ਜਿੰ | 美国RBOB汽油期货 | 1.7815 | -0.46 | 115000 | | | | 英国ICE柴油期货 | 645.75 | 0.16 | 176071 | | 后市观点 周三油价上演反转好戏，夜盘初段一度在供应过剩压制下继续下挫，不过最终还是从日内低点反弹超 2%最终收涨。油价在本周前段连续快速下挫近3美元之后终于迎来反弹窗口，地缘升温及美联储如期降 息引发了金融市场大幅波动，美元大跌同时，股市、大宗商品等风险资产纷纷大涨，市场风险偏好升 温，原油的反弹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices have plummeted to a four-year low, with a significant drop of over 0.6 yuan per liter in just one year, reflecting broader economic implications and consumer sentiment [1] Group 1: Current Oil Prices - As of the latest data, WTI crude oil is priced at $58.23 per barrel, down 1.10%, while Brent crude oil has fallen to $61.91 per barrel [1] - The current price levels indicate a return to the lows seen four years ago, impacting consumer budgets and overall economic sentiment [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The oil market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply and demand, characterized by a "supply glut" due to increased production signals from Iraq, which is pressuring prices downward [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertainties surrounding Venezuela's policies, contribute to market volatility and risk premiums [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Influence - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly affect the strength of the dollar and global economic expectations, which in turn influence oil prices [4] - The next adjustment window for domestic oil prices is on December 22, with a current oil change rate of -0.89%, suggesting a potential price reduction of 40 yuan per ton [4] Group 4: Consumer Sentiment - There is a shift in consumer psychology from passive acceptance of rising prices to a more proactive wait-and-see approach regarding potential further declines in oil prices [4] - The emotional response to falling oil prices is mixed, with consumers feeling both relief and concern about the underlying economic implications of sustained low prices [6][7]

石油石化 2025 年 12 月 10 日 传统能源行业 2026 年年度策略报告 周期新启，攻守兼备 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 25-01 25-02 25-03 25-04 25-05 25-06 25-07 25-08 25-09 25-10 25-11 25-12 沪深300 石油石化 煤炭 证券分析师 | 陈潇榕 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060523110001 | | | chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn | 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 年 度 策 略 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 图表1 主要大宗商品和金融资产价格涨跌幅 图表2 原油、天然气、煤炭价格走势(美元/百万英热) 资料来源： wind ，钢联数据，平安证券研究所，注：数据截至 2025.11.20 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 10 11 12 13 ...

外盘供应收紧推高价格 近期，国内硫黄市场价格持续攀升，引发行业广泛关注。截至12月4日，国内主流成交价已突破4000元(吨价，下同)大关，国内主 要港口成交价已达4110元，环比涨幅17%，年内涨幅已超160%，创下近十年来新高。 市场资深评论员邵会文表示，今年硫黄市场如此"疯狂"上涨，主要受国际供应趋紧、下游需求增长及市场情绪推动等因素影响。 基于目前供需博弈现状，预计短期内市场仍将维持高位盘整走势。业内人士建议，在关注市场机遇的同时，需密切关注潜在风 险，维护产业链供应链稳定。 市场看涨情绪加剧波动 邵会文表示，今年硫黄市场贸易商的参与度明显高于以往，也是行情能够快速走高的另一推动因素。在对多家贸易商进行咨询了 解的过程中发现，即便硫黄市场价格已处于历史高位区间，仍有超过70%的贸易商对12月的市场行情看涨。 业内人士普遍认为，国际市场硫黄的强势表现，一直是近几个月国内硫黄价格上涨的核心动力。 "受地缘冲突等因素影响，俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的硫黄出口量显著下降，而以印度尼西亚湿法镍冶炼为代表的下游需求快速增 长，由此引发硫黄价格快速上涨。"中国硫酸工业协会秘书长廖康程分析，俄乌冲突前，俄罗斯硫黄的出口量在20 ...

近期，一些国际机构将未来2年至5年的金价目标位设定在4500美元甚至5000美元左右。但要看到，金价走势 存在较大不确定性，未来金价走势受多重因素特别是国际局势变化的影响。综合来看，国际金价中长期的价 位仍取决于世界经济状况和地缘政治走向。主导金价的多空因素仍将继续博弈，市场的拉锯与震荡或将成为 常态。 一些国际机构日前作出预测称，金价未来仍有较大上涨空间。高盛对2026年底的金价预期已上调为每盎司 4900美元，花旗银行甚至认为中长期的金价可能挑战5000美元。不过，在看好金价前景的同时，其走势存在 较大不确定性，其中变数不小。 2020年国际黄金价格首次突破每盎司2000美元，之后曾历经反复，直到2023年才真正站稳这一关口，进而刮 起一阵阵"黄金风暴"，推动金价快速上涨，很快突破每盎司3000美元，在今年10月初突破4000美元关口。受 此影响，国内金价水涨船高，足金饰品已突破1100元人民币/克、工艺金条突破1040元人民币/克。 支撑国际金价进一步走高的核心因素一时难以消失。从6个月至12个月的时间区间看，不少国际机构将金价目 标位设定在每盎司4200美元至4300美元之间，但上下波动会加剧。关键在 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | 月 | 供给过剩叠加地缘缓和，油价弱势下行。地缘：俄乌地缘仍有扰动，12 8 日泽连斯基与英国、德国、法国首脑进行会晤；核心驱动：淡季供给 | | 原油 | | | | | 谨慎看空 | 过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油 | | ★ | | 激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注 | | | | 变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气走弱。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需 | | LPG | | 方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左右， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | L | | 期现共振下跌，基差走强。国内开工季节性回升，月内到港资源充足，供 | | | 空头延续 | 给端整体依旧充足。棚膜旺季逐步见顶，农膜开工率三连降。油价中期仍 | | ★ | | 存下移风 ...

市场从来都是明白人挣糊涂人的钱。在市场经济中，只要你参与到经济中来，就是经济人了，经济人当然就以盈利为目的，特别在资本市场中，没有慈善 家，只有赢家和输家。无论你在其他方面如何成功，到了市场里，赢输就是唯一标准。在市场中生存，要向溪水一样，不急不躁，狭隙生存，寻求最简单， 最单纯的状态。我的理念是点位到了我们就干，点位没到，我们就看。我是贺博生，无论你是新手、还是老手。投资迷茫了或者亏损了都可以咨--询笔者。 在机会面前：聪明人永远是宁可抓错，决不放过。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周二（12月9日）美市盘中，现货黄金窄幅震荡上涨，目前交投于4210美元/盎司附近。周一现货黄金价格小幅回落，每盎司收报4190.48 美元，下跌0.2%，市场在美联储政策会议前夕的短暂喘息，投资者们正屏息以待美联储鲍威尔的最新表态，同时地缘政治紧张局势、美元波动以及突发事 件如日本地震，都在悄然影响着黄金的走势。周一美元指数延续上周五尾盘涨势，远离上周触及的五周低点，一度刷新三个交易日高点至99.22，收报 99.11，短线略微金价走势。美联储即将召开为期两天的政策会议，这无疑是当前金市的最大不确定因素。 黄金技术面 ...