印度央行六名货币政策委员会成员一致投票决定将回购利率维持在5.25%，符合彭博调查中多数经济学 家的预期。政策立场保持中性，表明央行可能在一段时间内继续按兵不动。 央行决定公布后，卢比保持小幅涨势。印度政府债券扩大跌势，因央行未宣布任何新的流动性措施，10 年期债券收益率上涨多达6个基点至6.70%。 印度储备银行周五决定维持基准利率不变，在美印贸易协议缓解增长担忧后选择观望。这一决定反映出 央行对当前政策设定的满意，认为经济增长正在增强且通胀保持温和。 央行行长Sanjay Malhotra在讲话中表示，"贸易协议的成功达成对经济前景是个好兆头"。印度政府高级 官员本周表示，经济增长可能超过其对下一财年最高7.2%的预测。 据新华社，特朗普说，他和莫迪达成一项双边贸易协议。美国将把对印度商品加征的所谓"对等关税"税 率从25%降至18%，立即生效，印度同时降低对美关税和非关税壁垒。这一意外的贸易协议提振了这个 亚洲第三大经济体的增长前景。 贸易协议与财政刺激提振信心 特朗普此前宣布将对印度商品的关税从50%降至18%，这一大幅下调显著改善了市场预期。作为协议的 一部分，印度总理莫迪同意停止购买俄罗斯石油，并 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the investment rating possibilities for various varieties, including "cautiously bearish" and "cautiously bullish" assessments [6]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes multiple key financial and commodity markets, including precious metals, crude oil, and stock indices. It suggests that the long - term upward trend of gold remains intact despite recent volatility. The stock market is expected to continue its short - term positive trend in February, but potential risks from overseas markets during the Spring Festival need to be watched. For other markets, it provides detailed analyses of supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors [2][4][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Main News Focus - **International News**: The European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, pausing rate cuts for the fifth consecutive time since June last year. It did not signal the next policy direction, strengthening the market's expectation of a stable monetary policy. Officials are monitoring the impact of the euro's appreciation on export competitiveness and inflation [7]. - **Domestic News**: Eight departments jointly issued an implementation plan for the high - quality development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, aiming to achieve certain goals by 2030, such as cultivating high - standard raw material bases and new large - scale Chinese patent medicines [8]. - **Industry News**: In January, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, indicating an expansion of logistics business, with key sub - indices in the expansion range [9]. 3.2 Daily Earnings of Overseas Markets - The report presents the daily earnings of various overseas market indices and commodities on February 4th and 5th, including the S&P 500, European STOXX50, and others. Most showed declines, except for the US dollar index and some commodities like CBOT soybeans [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Indices**: US stock indices declined. The A - share market also fell, with the beauty and care sector leading the gain and the non - ferrous metal sector leading the loss. The stock market's positive trend since 2026 is due to multiple factors. It is expected to continue its short - term positive trend in February, but potential risks from overseas markets during the Spring Festival need attention [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling. The central bank's open - market operations and the expected "rate - cut and balance - sheet reduction" policy in the US, along with domestic economic data, have influenced the Treasury bond market [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.73% at night. The US and Iran plan to hold nuclear - issue talks, but reaching an agreement is considered difficult. The strengthening US dollar and volatile precious metal prices have negatively affected the commodity market [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.46%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, as did the overall methanol plant operating rate. Coastal methanol inventories decreased slightly but were still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber futures declined. With domestic and some overseas production areas in different production states, and the inventory in Qingdao increasing, the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures mainly declined, with the market focusing on supply improvement expectations and macro - factors. The falling oil price also contributed to the cooling of the polyolefin market [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures mainly declined. Glass production enterprise inventories increased slightly, and soda ash inventories also rose. The supply - demand situation is gradually adjusting, and the future market depends on the real - estate and photovoltaic industries [18][19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals fluctuated at night. Recent volatility was mainly due to the nomination of the Fed chair and capital stampede. In the long run, gold is expected to resume its upward trend, while investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.15% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and downstream demand is mixed. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.84% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and downstream demand is also mixed. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [22]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fell 0.23% at night. Short - term spot - level upward drivers are limited, but long - term factors such as low inventory and stable demand provide support [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate main contract touched the daily limit down and then slightly recovered. The market has high attention, and downstream buyers are cautious. Supply and demand factors are complex, and a cautious short - selling view is maintained [24][25]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke main contracts fluctuated at night. Steel production and demand are in a seasonal off - peak, but import disruptions and pre - holiday restocking provide support [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. The macro - environment is improving, and raw - material costs provide support. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Shipping volumes and port inventories have changed, and steel mills will continue to purchase on - demand [28]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meals**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and rose at night. Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing, and the US - China soybean purchase plan affects the market. Domestic high inventories and sufficient supply expectations pressure prices [29]. - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oils were weak, while rapeseed oil rose slightly. Malaysian palm oil exports are strong and production is falling, but market supply expectations affect prices [30][31]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated and were slightly stronger. With a seasonal supply increase and import pressure, prices are expected to remain low in the short term [32]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton futures maintained a volatile trend. With approaching Spring Festival, the market has a certain demand support, but import factors may limit price increases [33]. - **Hogs**: The hog market continued to be weak and volatile, with regional differences. The market is in a "price - decline and reluctance - to - sell" game, and pre - holiday prices are expected to adjust [34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose 3.86%. Pre - holiday spot freight rates are expected to decline. The market has a large discount, and future price trends depend on factors such as the pre - April 1st export rush and shipping company price increases [35].

Group 1 - International gold and silver prices experienced significant declines on February 5, with silver futures dropping over 9% and gold futures falling more than 1% [1][2] - Silver prices reached historical highs on January 29, with spot and futures prices hitting 121.647 and 121.785 respectively, but have since seen volatility [2] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both decided to maintain their key interest rates, contributing to the lack of support for the gold market [2] Group 2 - The current silver price trends are primarily driven by capital flows rather than physical fundamentals, leading to increased volatility compared to gold [3] - Speculative capital inflows and thin over-the-counter trading have amplified price fluctuations in the silver market [3] - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce predicts average gold prices to reach $6,000 per ounce and silver prices around $105 per ounce this year, citing geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening dollar as supporting factors for gold prices [3]

德国商业 银行研究部分析师在报告中指出，预计泰国央行将在本月晚些时候维持政策利率不变。该央 行需要时间来评估本周日全国大选对经济和市场的潜在影响。此外，1月份消费者价格已连续第10个月 下降，预计2026年也将维持在泰国央行1%—3%的目标区间下方。分析师认为，这将为该央行在今年晚 些时候放宽货币政策提供契机。 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the excess reserve ratio in December increased by 0.4 percentage points to 1.6%, which is relatively low for year-end months and below the expected 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to a lower-than-expected decline in government deposits [1][13][17] - In December, government deposits decreased by approximately 1 trillion, which is lower than the previously expected 2 trillion, reaching a historical high of 5 trillion [1][13][17] - The report highlights that the general public budget revenue and expenditure did not meet the annual budget targets, with the expenditure completion rate being the lowest in recent years, leading to a significant fiscal deficit of 2.66 trillion in December, exceeding expectations by about 500 billion [2][16][17] Group 2 - The report forecasts that the broad fiscal surplus for January is expected to be around 410 billion, which is at a neutral level compared to previous years, with government deposits anticipated to increase by approximately 1.25 trillion, potentially impacting liquidity [2][26][35] - In January, the monetary issuance is projected to increase by about 600 billion, with the reserve requirement ratio expected to rise by approximately 350 billion, indicating a tightening effect on liquidity [2][26][35] - The report notes that the funding rates in January have marginally increased compared to December, but the overall liquidity remains loose, with the average DR001 rate reaching 1.34%, higher than December's 1.28% [3][43][45] Group 3 - The report suggests that the fiscal deficit in February may reach the highest level for the same period in previous years, with government deposits expected to decrease by about 370 billion [7][35] - It is anticipated that the monetary issuance in February will remain high, with an expected increase of around 900 billion, influenced by the timing of the Chinese New Year [7][35] - The report indicates that the central bank's monetary policy has subtly shifted, focusing on guiding reasonable growth in financial totals rather than excessively loosening financial conditions [8][35]

一如预期，欧洲央行在2月再度维持利率不变。当地时间2月5日，欧洲央行决定维持欧元区三大关键利 率不变：欧元区存款机制利率、主要再融资利率和边际借贷利率分别维持在2.00%、2.15%、2.40%不 变。这是欧洲央行自去年7月以来连续第五次维持观望立场。 自去年欧洲央行暂停降息以来，市场一直密切关注欧洲央行降息周期是否已经结束，以及欧洲央行措辞 会否转"鹰"。在新闻发布会上，拉加德拒绝被贴标签，她强调未来货币政策应保持"灵活"而非"固定方 向"。 5日公布的利率声明也显示，欧洲央行的政策目标仍是确保欧元区中期通胀目标稳定在2%。同时，欧洲 央行承认全球贸易政策与地缘政治紧张局势仍存在不确定性，但表示中期通胀率仍将稳定在2%的目标 区间，欧元区经济正沿着12月预测的路线稳步前行。 保加利亚结束欧元过渡月 在本次例会上，拉加德对保加利亚加入表示赞赏，称这是"单一货币吸引力和欧洲一体化持久效益"的又 一有力证明。本次例会，保加利亚国家银行行长迪米塔尔.拉德夫以投票权身份加入欧洲央行管理委员 会，这标志着保加利亚迈向欧洲货币联盟的漫长征程终于迎来圆满结局。 数据显示，自1999年以来，欧元区成员国数量几乎翻了一番，目前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a slight pullback while remaining strong, driven by political uncertainty in Japan, fiscal policy expectations, and the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, with upcoming elections amplifying short-term volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of February 6, 2026, the USD/JPY exchange rate is reported at 156.5800, down 0.4900 (0.2866% decline) from the previous trading day, with a daily high of 157.0600 and a low of 156.5000, indicating a high-level minor correction [1]. - The upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8 is raising market concerns regarding the election outcome and subsequent fiscal policies, particularly the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's expansionary fiscal policies which may exacerbate debt burdens and suppress the yen [1][2]. - Despite a rise in Japan's service sector PMI to 53.7 in January, the yen remains under pressure due to ongoing fiscal and political risks, with inflation momentum cooling further, leading to reduced expectations for short-term interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1][2]. Group 2: USD Strength and Technical Analysis - The USD is supported by policy expectations, with the dollar index at 97.774 (up 0.13%) as of February 5, providing support for the USD/JPY pair [2]. - Technically, the USD/JPY has broken through the 156.50 resistance level and is in a strong consolidation phase, with MACD indicating bullish momentum but with diminishing strength, and the relative strength index nearing high levels, suggesting limited upward space [2]. - The 157 level is identified as a critical resistance point; if sustained, it could open further upward movement, while failure to hold may lead to a retracement to 156.50 [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outcome of the upcoming election is seen as a key short-term factor, with expectations that a significant victory for the ruling party could push the exchange rate towards 160, while a less favorable outcome could see it drop to 151 [2]. - The short-term outlook for USD/JPY remains focused on high-level fluctuations, influenced by the Japanese election results, the divergence in monetary policies between Japan and the US, and the shifting expectations for Fed rate cuts [2].

当前市场核心聚焦欧、英两大央行政策决议。欧央行预计按兵不动，拉加德对通胀与增长的表态将主导 预期：强调复苏乏力、通胀回落或暗示降息，将施压欧元；警惕通胀韧性、维持政策耐心，则支撑欧元 相对强势。英国央行大概率维持3.75%利率不变，货币政策报告及贝利对降息节奏的表述为关键：承认 通胀快速回落、劳动力市场转弱，将提升降息预期利空英镑；担忧通胀粘性、强调政策审慎，或提振英 镑并抑制欧元兑英镑上行。汇市已进入央行措辞驱动的预期再定价阶段，政策鹰派程度直接决定货币相 对强弱。 技术面，欧元兑英镑处于区间震荡格局，汇价在0.8611-0.8796区间内拉锯，当前0.8670位于区间中轴。 上方0.8700为关键心理与交易阻力，突破后需站稳0.8744反弹高点，方可再度试探0.8796前高；下方支 撑聚焦0.8643前期低点及0.8611阶段底部，若英央行偏鹰或欧元区数据走弱，支撑失守将打开下行空 间，整体维持区间博弈、等待央行决议指引方向。 2月6日回溯2月5日周四，欧元兑英镑欧洲时段于0.8670附近交投，日内涨幅超0.30%。欧元此番反弹并 非自身动能走强，而是英镑在英国央行利率决议前遭短线抛压，市场谨慎情绪升温推 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-06 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

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