来源：滚动播报 美联储哈玛克：货币政策是一种"钝器"，难以轻易应对经济表现分化的问题。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has led to a pause in the release of official inflation data, raising concerns among some Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy direction [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed unease about continuing interest rate cuts due to the lack of key price data, stating that the Fed has less clarity on price trends compared to employment indicators during the government shutdown [1] - Goolsbee emphasized the need for caution among policymakers in the face of data shortages and reduced economic visibility, suggesting that they should slow down their decision-making process [1] Group 2 - Despite the temporary interruption of official labor data, a real-time unemployment rate indicator based on private sector data from the Chicago Fed shows an October unemployment rate of approximately 4.36%, nearly unchanged from August's 4.35%, indicating that the labor market has not deteriorated further [2] - As the gap in inflation data widens and internal disagreements among officials increase, the market is beginning to bet that the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, particularly ahead of the next rate decision in December [2] - Goolsbee's recent comments indicate a strengthening of hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve, contrasting with the dovish perspective that has recently advocated for continued policy easing to support employment [2]

Core Points - The Bank of England decided to maintain the base interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations [1][4] - This decision pauses the trend of quarterly rate cuts that began in August 2024 [2] - The Monetary Policy Committee's decision reflects concerns over high overall inflation rates in the UK [4] Economic Outlook - The Bank of England has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.5% from a previous estimate of 1.25% [6] - Inflation expectations have been adjusted, with the one-year inflation forecast now at 2.5%, down from 2.7% [6] - The overall inflation risk is perceived to be more stable, with expectations for inflation to approach 3% by early 2026 and reach the 2% target by the second quarter of 2027 [6] Monetary Policy Insights - The decision to keep rates unchanged was passed with a 5-4 vote, with Governor Bailey casting the decisive vote [8] - Bailey indicated that future rate cuts are likely but depend on confirming that inflation is moving towards the 2% target [8] - The upcoming autumn budget is expected to influence future monetary policy decisions, with potential tax increases to address fiscal gaps [10][12] Currency Impact - Following the announcement, the British pound fell approximately 30 points against the US dollar, trading at 1.30606 [3][9] - Analysts predict continued pressure on the pound, with expectations of further depreciation if rate cuts occur in December [9] Fiscal Considerations - The upcoming autumn budget is critical for determining the timing of any future rate cuts, with expectations of tax measures to mitigate inflation [10][11] - Economic activity is currently subdued, with uncertainty surrounding the budget leading to delays in financial planning for businesses and households [12]

贝利特别指出，食品通胀的峰值可能出现在今年晚些时候，暗示整体通胀下行路径或面临结构性扰动。 他重申："在我们再次降息之前，我们需要看到通胀的下行路径变得更加明确。" 新华财经北京11月6日电（崔凯）英国央行宣布将基准利率维持在4.0%不变，符合市场预期。然而，货 币政策委员会（MPC）内部出现显著分歧，九名委员以5票赞成、4票反对的表决结果决定暂不调整利 率，凸显政策走向正处于关键转折阶段。 行长安德鲁·贝利在当日新闻发布会上明确指出，9月份3.8%的消费者价格指数（CPI）同比涨幅"预计将 为本轮周期的峰值"，并称该数值较8月预测低0.2个百分点，"这一点令人鼓舞"。但他同时强调，当前 仅凭单月数据不足以确认通胀趋势已稳固回落，仍需"看到更多证据表明通胀已过峰值"。 贝利的表态延续了谨慎基调：一方面承认潜在价格压力继续缓解、经济活动低于潜在水平、通胀回落受 增长放缓支撑；另一方面仍警示"通胀可能持续居高不下""第二轮效应带来的风险并未消失"，并呼吁家 庭和企业"保持谨慎"。 （文章来源：新华财经） 在劳动力市场方面，贝利表示，"从各方面来看，劳动力市场正在放缓"，企业招聘意愿持续低迷，就业 市场显现疲软。与 ...

诺克斯进一步指出，若英国政府在即将公布的秋季预算中宣布大规模短期加税措施，可能对经济增长构 成额外压力，并在2025年改变通胀与增长之间的风险平衡。然而，在通胀尚未取得"更实质性进展"之 前，货币政策不宜过早转向宽松。 新华财经北京11月6日电摩根大通全球市场分析师扎拉·诺克斯（Zara Knox）指出，尽管近期通胀数据 出现积极迹象，但英国整体通胀率仍高达3.8%，约为英国央行2%目标水平的近两倍。在此背景下，英 国央行在考虑降息时必须保持高度谨慎。 诺克斯表示，当前英国经济呈现结构性分化：一方面，劳动力市场正逐步降温；另一方面，零售销售与 消费者信心等指标则显示出经济具备一定韧性。这种复杂局面增加了货币政策制定的难度。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank Negara Malaysia maintains the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75%, marking the second consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [1] Economic Indicators - The current interest rate level is deemed "appropriate" to support economic growth while ensuring price stability [1] - Malaysia's average inflation rate for 2025 is reported at 1.4%, with core inflation at 1.9%, both within a moderate range [1] - Overall inflation is expected to remain moderate in 2026, with core inflation anticipated to stabilize near its long-term average [1] GDP Performance - Malaysia's GDP in the third quarter outperformed expectations, driven by sustained domestic demand, resilient electronic exports, and gradual recovery in commodity production [1] - The fiscal budget for 2026 includes policy measures expected to further support economic growth, with robust domestic demand identified as the main driver for the economy in 2026 [1] Monetary Policy Stance - The central bank emphasizes potential risks in the global economy that may create uncertainties for Malaysia's growth outlook [1] - A cautious monetary policy stance will be maintained to balance growth and price stability objectives [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently in a consolidation phase, with long-end varieties remaining weak, and the focus is shifting back to fundamentals and equity market performance, requiring renewed policy easing expectations for further strengthening [1][6]. Market Performance - On November 6, the main contracts for government bond futures mostly closed lower, with the 30-year contract down 0.28% at 116.11, the 10-year contract down 0.09% at 108.535, and the 5-year contract down 0.03% at 105.965 [2]. - The interbank yield on major bonds generally rose, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield increasing by 0.2 basis points to 1.866%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.2 basis points to 1.7945% [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7.78 basis points to 4.159% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also saw an increase, with the 10-year yield rising by 1.6 basis points to 1.68% [3]. - In the Eurozone, 10-year French, German, Italian, and Spanish bond yields all increased, with the French yield rising by 1.9 basis points to 3.455% [3]. Primary Market - The China Development Bank's 3-year and 7-year financial bonds were issued at yields of 1.6605% and 1.8685%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.35 and 5.62 [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 928 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates fell across the board, with the overnight rate down 0.2 basis points to 1.313% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Institutions suggest that in a tightening monetary environment, floating-rate bonds may outperform other fixed-income assets, with expectations for further expansion in the floating-rate bond market [7]. - The overall stability of the liability side is expected to limit disturbances in the bond market, with a continued recovery anticipated in the fourth quarter [7]. - The bond market has entered a phase of information vacuum, with risk preferences becoming the main reference for interest rate pricing [7].

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures inventory reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 658,851 kilograms, with a decrease of 6,693 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 11,449 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 11,483 yuan per kilogram, a low of 11,245 yuan per kilogram, and closed at 11,455 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 0.39% [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - Cleveland Fed President Harker expressed an open attitude towards reforming the interest rate targets used in monetary policy, indicating a shift from the traditional federal funds rate to other interest rate indicators [2][3] - Harker emphasized the need for a certain degree of restrictiveness to bring inflation back to the 2% target, warning that lowering interest rates now would risk unleashing inflation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping index futures, and multiple metal and agricultural product futures. It provides market conditions, influencing factors, and operation suggestions for each category, highlighting market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market condition: A-shares showed resilience, with major indices rebounding after an early decline. Most major contracts of the four stock index futures closed higher, and the basis discount of the main contracts widened. Power resource-related industries performed well, while technology sectors corrected [2][3]. - News: The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted tariff measures on US imports. Overseas, the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicated potential interest rate hikes [3][4]. - Capital: On November 5, the trading volume in the A-share market decreased slightly. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: With unclear market directions and cold trading sentiment, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Most Treasury bond futures closed lower, with minor changes in the yields of major interest rate bonds in the interbank market [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The interbank liquidity was loose, and the overnight repurchase rate remained stable [5][6]. - Operation suggestion: The upward trend of Treasury bond futures driven by the central bank's bond purchases has paused. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 10-year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB and consider positive arbitrage strategies [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large-scale tariffs. US employment data improved slightly, and the government shutdown affected market liquidity [7][8]. - Market situation: Precious metals stopped falling and rebounded. Gold closed at $3,978.75 per ounce, up 1.21%, and silver closed above $48 per ounce, up 1.79% [9]. - Outlook: In the medium to long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market, but there may be a 2 - 3 month consolidation period after reaching new highs. Short-term gold is expected to trade between $3,900 - $4,030, and silver between $47 - $49 [9][10]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips [32]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Route) - Spot price: As of November 4, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes varied among different shipping companies [11]. - Shipping index: As of November 3, the SCFIS European route index decreased, while the US West route index increased. As of October 31, the SCFI composite index increased [11]. - Fundamentals: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity increased year-on-year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated upward, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,800 - 2,000 points [12]. - Operation suggestion: Buy on dips for the December contract in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non-ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of November 5, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the premium/discount showed mixed changes. Market sentiment was still cautious [12]. - Macro: The US dollar index strengthened, suppressing copper prices. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the Trump tariff case was under review [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate remained low. In October, the production of electrolytic copper decreased, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [13]. - Demand: The downstream demand for copper showed strong resilience, with more purchase orders released after price corrections [14]. - Inventory: LME, COMEX, and domestic social inventories of copper increased [15]. - Logic: The short - term rise in copper prices may suppress demand, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the support at 84,000 and the resistance at 86,500 [16]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: On November 5, the spot prices of aluminum oxide in different regions showed mixed trends, with a generally loose supply pattern and a weakening price [16]. - Supply: In October, the production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year. The operating capacity decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation in November [17]. - Inventory: In October, the inventories of aluminum oxide at ports, factories, and electrolytic aluminum plants increased [17]. - Logic: The price of aluminum oxide is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18][19]. Aluminum - Spot: On November 5, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium/discount also declined, with limited actual transactions [20]. - Supply: In October, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased, and the operating capacity remained stable. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may decline slightly in November [20]. - Demand: In the traditional peak season, the weekly operating rates of downstream aluminum processing products declined [20]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventories of aluminum ingots increased, while LME inventories decreased [21]. - Logic: The short - term price of aluminum will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals. Pay attention to the resistance at 21,500 yuan/ton [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On November 5, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased, with weak spot trading [23]. - Supply: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate rose. It is expected that the operating rate will remain stable in October [23]. - Demand: In October, demand showed a mild recovery, but the transmission of terminal demand was not smooth, and high prices suppressed purchasing willingness [24]. - Inventory: In October, the social inventory of aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [24]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 is expected to remain strongly volatile, with the main contract trading between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [25][26]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Consider arbitrage strategies [26]. Zinc - Spot: On November 5, the average price of zinc ingots decreased, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [26]. - Supply: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc concentrates decreased. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined zinc increased. It is expected that the processing fees will continue to decline in November [27]. - Demand: The operating rates of primary zinc processing industries were generally stable, and overall demand showed no significant improvement [28]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventories of zinc decreased, while LME inventories remained stable [28]. - Logic: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but the fundamentals may limit further upward movement. It may continue to trade within a range [29]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [29]. Tin - Spot: On November 5, the price of tin decreased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The market transaction improved slightly [29]. - Supply: In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased, and tin ingot imports also declined. The supply from Myanmar showed signs of improvement [30]. - Demand: The demand for tin remained weak, with a decline in orders in the solder industry. Although some new fields drove tin consumption, it was not enough to make up for the shortfall [31][32]. - Inventory: LME inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [31]. - Logic: Considering the strong fundamentals, it is recommended to hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips. Pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar [32]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips [32]. Nickel - Spot: As of November 5, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import price also declined [32]. - Supply: In the capacity expansion cycle, the production of refined nickel decreased slightly in October but remained at a high level [33]. - Demand: The demand from electroplating and alloy industries was stable, while the demand from stainless steel was average. The demand for nickel sulfate showed signs of improvement in the short term but faced challenges in the medium term [33]. - Inventory: LME inventories remained high, while domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and bonded area inventories declined [33]. - Logic: The nickel market is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - level changes and Indonesian policies [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [34][35]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends, and the basis increased [36]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore remained firm, while the price of nickel iron decreased. The chromium iron market was weak, and the cost support declined [36]. - Supply: In September and October, the production of stainless steel increased. The production of the 300 - series remained at a high level [37]. - Inventory: Social inventories decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts declined [37]. - Logic: The stainless steel market is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - level changes and steel mill supply [38]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was weak [39]. - Supply: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased. Recently, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene decreased slightly, while that from mica remained stable [40][42]. - Demand: The overall demand was optimistic, with an increase in production schedules in the iron - lithium and ternary sectors. Pay attention to the demand after November [40][42]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased, with a reduction in smelter and downstream inventories [41]. - Logic: The short - term fundamentals support the price, but the trading logic has shifted. The price is expected to fluctuate between 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [42]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [42][43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price of steel was weak, and the basis strengthened [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. Profits from high to low were billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [43]. - Supply: From January to September, the production of iron elements increased. In October, the growth rate slowed down, and the output of the five major steel products increased slightly [43]. - Demand: Domestic demand expectations were weak, while exports remained high. The apparent demand for steel increased [44]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and it is expected that the inventory center will increase year - on - year but decrease month - on - month [44]. - Viewpoint: The 1 - month contract has a loose supply of iron elements. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [44]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [46]. - Futures: The main contract of iron ore increased slightly, while the far - month contract decreased. The 1 - 5 spread widened [47]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was positive [48]. - Demand: The daily consumption of imported iron ore decreased, and the profitability of steel mills declined [49]. - Supply: Global iron ore shipments decreased, while the arrivals at 45 ports increased significantly [50]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, the daily port clearance volume increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [51]. - Viewpoint: The iron ore market is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [52]. Coking Coal - Spot and futures: As of November 5, coking coal futures rebounded, and the prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal were strong [53]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [54]. - Demand: The production of coke increased slightly, while the iron - making output decreased significantly. The demand for coking coal from steel mills weakened [55]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased slightly, with inventory reductions in mines, ports, and washing plants, and inventory increases in coking plants and steel mills [55]. - Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [55]. Coke - Spot and futures: As of November 5, coke futures rebounded, and the third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises was implemented [56]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative, but the loss narrowed after the price increase [56]. - Supply: The price of coking coal increased, providing cost support for coke. The production of coke increased slightly [57]. - Demand: Due to environmental restrictions, the iron - making output decreased, and the demand for coke from steel mills was suppressed [57]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of coke increased slightly, with inventory increases in coking plants and ports and inventory decreases in steel mills [57]. - Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [58]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: On November 5, the prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [59]. - Fundamentals: The State Council adjusted tariff measures on US imports. Bangladesh agreed to purchase US soybeans, and the estimated soybean yield in the US was adjusted [59][60]. - Market outlook: The adjustment of tariffs on US imports boosted the prices of US soybeans and domestic futures. The cost support for domestic soybean meal has increased [60][61]. Live Pigs - Spot: The spot price of live pigs was weak, with a decline in prices in various regions [62]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [62]. - Market outlook: The market supply is loose, and the pig price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and operate with caution [63]. Corn - Spot price: On November 5, the prices of corn in Northeast China and North China showed different trends, with light market transactions [64]. - Fundamentals: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port decreased slightly, while the corn inventory increased [64]. - Market outlook: The supply pressure remains, and the upward movement of the corn price is limited [64].

10月下旬，上证综指一度突破4000点，虽然之后未能守住，但在4000点上下徘徊。上证综指在3000点上 下运行十年之后，终于到达4000点区间，市场理所当然地予以高度关注。这一现象意味着什么呢？ 这一现象给人最直观的感受是市场信心在很大程度上有了恢复，而信心恢复背后的主要推手是中国经济 基本面的韧劲和资本市场政策的积极作用。在股指达到此区间后，未来还会怎么走，这就有必要认真考 量一系列与股市密切相关的因素在未来一个时期的表现。 图/图虫创意 货币政策是影响股市最基本的政策因素。一年多来，全球主要经济体的货币政策方向发生了转变。美联 储在去年进行了一轮较为集中的降息后曾短暂停顿，近期又两次合计下调联邦基金目标利率0.5个百分 点。从趋势上看，美联储的货币政策在未来三到五年内大概率仍将保持宽松。 我国货币政策基调已由稳健调整为适度宽松，这是近十四年来首次改弦更张。为保持经济在合理水平上 增长，同时又因为物价水平处在较低区间，"十五五"时期，我国收紧货币政策的条件并不存在，适度宽 松仍会成为货币政策的主基调。世界范围内的流动性宽松局面将持续影响国内市场资金供给，未来若干 年资本市场的外部流动性将得到持续保障。 尽 ...