新华财经北京10月11日电在政策引导与市场创新双轮驱动之下，浮息债市场正重焕生机，年内已发行近 三千亿元、较去年全年规模增长八成，参与主体也从最初的政策性银行，逐步扩展至商业银行、非金融 企业等多类主体，形成了更加丰富的市场层次。 业内人士表示，浮息债可以为利率风险管理提供多元选择，也是我国债券市场建设发展的"蓝海"，尤其 在利率下行期，浮息债票面利率与基准利率同步调整，可有效降低发行人融资成本，提升市场发债融资 意愿，稳定的投资收益也能满足机构的交投需求。 政策与市场同频共振构建良性发展新格局 浮息债市场的蓬勃发展得益于明确的政策指引和制度保障。监管部门持续推动商业银行创新负债工具、 优化负债结构等举措，也为浮息债市场的健康发展创造了良好环境。 2025年一季度央行货币政策执行报告提及"加强投资者利率风险管理"，浮息债作为利率风险管理的重要 工具，市场规模较前三年大幅扩容，其中商业银行浮息债发行显著升温，成为创新概念债产品的又一重 大突破。 从市场总量看，据新华财经梳理，2025年浮息债发行自7月以来迎来更加显著增长，截至10月9日，浮息 债年内已发行103只，规模合计2925.7亿元，较去年全年发行量（1 ...

2025 年 09 月 30 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 168 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 两条技术路线下的降息预期测算--固定收益专题研究 从三个细节谈起，债券调整到位了吗？--债券研究周报 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、两条技术路线下的降息预期测算--固定收益专题研究 分析师：颜子琦 S0350525090002 分析师：刘畅 S0350524090005 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：如何通过利率互换定价与浮息债利差分析两条技术路线，量化当前市场交易中 隐含的降息预期，以弥补传统流动性分析中的不足。以及如何基于当前的市场共识，判断未来若政策宽松落地 可能带来的债市预期差与投资机会。 从资金面到利率定价的核心问题 当前对流动性的分析容易陷入定性臆测、过度聚焦历史、过度关注前瞻的问 题，而有效的利率研判必须结合"纵向预测"与"横向定价"，其中后者是当前研究的核心堵点。为解决这一 问题，本文通过利率互换定价与浮息债利差分析两条技术路线，分析当前市场交易中隐含的 ...

Group 1 - The bond market sentiment is currently weak, with a poor profit effect, and significant downward movement in interest rates requires strong event-driven stimuli, such as large-scale bond purchases, central bank rate cuts, or significant declines in equity markets [1][8] - The 10-year government bond yield has been fluctuating around 1.8%, with potential for both upward and downward movement, but a rebound opportunity is more likely if the yield approaches 1.9% [1][8] - The report suggests maintaining a slightly lower duration in bond portfolios and focusing on a barbell structure due to the difficulty in significantly steepening the yield curve in a weak market environment [2][39] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of selecting specific bonds, with a focus on the 30-year government bond 25T6, which is expected to become the next main bond due to its good liquidity and upcoming issuance [3][12] - The yield spread between 25T6 and 25T2 is currently around 10 basis points, with expectations that this spread will compress to about 6 basis points as 25T6 gains prominence [12] - The report also emphasizes the need to monitor the impact of new regulations on fund redemptions, which may lead to increased volatility in certain bond types [2][39] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current bond yield valuations are not expensive compared to other asset classes, but the profit effect from bonds remains weak, making them less attractive [27][28] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to be around 1.93% in the coming month, reflecting a weak outlook based on the constructed interest rate prediction model [23][24] - The report notes that the yield curve is expected to remain relatively flat, with short-term government bonds showing more resilience compared to long-term bonds [38][39]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of floating-rate bonds in China has significantly increased, driven by the need for interest rate risk management and policy support, with a year-to-date issuance of 97 bonds totaling 275.57 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 123.5% [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The floating-rate bond market has seen a resurgence, with policy bank bonds accounting for over 80% of the issuance, while commercial bank bonds and subordinated bonds have also resumed issuance since June, totaling 38.9 billion yuan [1][2] - The newly issued floating-rate bonds exhibit a pattern of high initial trading activity followed by a significant drop in liquidity, with many bonds experiencing zero transactions after the first month [2][3] Group 2: Cost and Risk Management - The primary driver for commercial banks to restart floating-rate bond issuance is the pressure to reduce funding costs amid narrowing net interest margins and increasing market interest rate volatility [3][4] - Floating-rate bonds allow banks to dynamically adjust their funding costs in a declining interest rate environment, helping to alleviate the mismatch between high-interest liabilities and low-interest assets [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts predict that floating-rate bond issuance will become normalized, with expectations for a complete yield curve to be established, catering to different institutional funding duration needs [5][6] - The introduction of floating-rate mechanisms in local government bonds could further stimulate demand from banks and other institutions, leading to substantial growth in the floating-rate bond market [6]

Group 1 - The report discusses the need to hold bonds during the upcoming National Day holiday, emphasizing that capital gains are limited unless certain conditions are met, such as a drop in bond yields to attractive levels and improved market sentiment [1][6][34] - It highlights that the current 10-year government bond yield is around 1.8%, with potential for both upward and downward movement, but the expectation for bond profit is weak [1][6][34] - The report suggests that short-term bond strategies focusing on 1Y deposits, 1-2Y credit sinking, and 2-3Y high-grade credit are advisable, while caution is advised for 5Y and longer credits due to limited capital gain potential [2][7][35] Group 2 - The yield curve is currently steep, particularly in the medium to long-term segments, with short-term bonds expected to be more resilient against declines [2][7][35] - The report recommends maintaining a slightly lower duration in bond portfolios and suggests that investors wait for further adjustments before seeking rebound opportunities [2][7][36] - It emphasizes the importance of flexibility in portfolio management due to the weak market environment, advocating for a barbell strategy focusing on short-term deposits and higher-yielding credits [2][7][36] Group 3 - The report identifies specific bonds to focus on, including 7Y and 10Y government bonds, and suggests monitoring the liquidity of certain bonds for potential trading opportunities [3][8][9] - It notes that the current basis level for the TL2512 futures contract is relatively low, indicating that futures prices are cheaper compared to cash bonds [3][11] - The report provides a weekly review of bond market performance, indicating that long-term rates have shown weakness while mid-term rates performed slightly better [12][17]

Market Overview - Major stock indices showed a mixed performance, with Shenzhen ETFs significantly outperforming Shanghai ETFs. The Shanghai Composite 50 ETF fell by 1.9%, while the CSI 300 ETF declined by 0.37%. In contrast, the CSI 500 ETF and ChiNext ETF rose by 0.26% and 2.24%, respectively [1] - As of September 18, the financing balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.38576 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.18% from the previous week. The margin balance also rose to 16.706 billion yuan, up by 0.59% [1] - Implied volatility for several major ETFs increased, indicating rising investor expectations for future market fluctuations. The implied volatility for the Shanghai Composite 50 ETF was 19.06%, for the CSI 300 ETF it was 19.68%, and for the ChiNext ETF it reached 38.75% [1] Economic Indicators - In the first eight months of the year, China's general public budget revenue reached 14.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. Tax revenue was 12.11 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth in tax revenue this year [2] - Industrial value-added in August grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 5.6%. Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.4% year-on-year [2] - Fixed asset investment from January to August grew by 0.5%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 5.1%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.9% [2] Policy Developments - Nine departments jointly released policies aimed at expanding service consumption, proposing 19 specific measures, with 8 focused on enhancing "high-quality service supply" [2] - The government plans to select 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats and models, promoting the integration of accommodation, railways, and tourism, while also enhancing the application of artificial intelligence in service consumption [2] International Context - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the current rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%. This marks the first rate cut of the year and comes after a nine-month hiatus [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 231,000, marking the largest decline in nearly four years, with market expectations set at 240,000 [3] Market Outlook - Following last week's pullback, the A-share market is showing an upward trend, with optimistic market sentiment. However, the volatility index for major ETF options has generally declined, indicating potential adjustment risks [4] - Domestic CPI and PPI growth rates improved month-on-month, but year-on-year growth remains in negative territory, suggesting ongoing deflationary pressures [4] - The expectation of more proactive fiscal and monetary policies is anticipated to support the economy, especially in light of the Fed's confirmed rate cut [4]

数据显示，截至9月18日记者发稿，年内浮息债发行规模已达2690.7亿元，较2024年同期大幅增长 114.26%。值得关注的是，时隔10余年，商业银行今年6月份重启浮息债发行，助力浮息债市场规模持 续扩大。 商业银行重启浮息债发行 浮息债即浮动利率债券，是票面利率随市场基准利率定期调整的债券，通常由"基准利率+固定利差"构 成，基准利率一般与DR007（银行间市场存款类机构7天期回购加权平均利率）、LPR（贷款市场报价 利率）、LIBOR（伦敦银行同业拆借利率）等挂钩，固定利差在发行初期确定后便保持不变。 华西证券（002926）研报显示，国内浮息债市场始于1995年，先后经历1995年—2000年、2003年—2011 年、2014年—2021年三轮扩张期；2022年—2024年发行规模显著下降，2025年则再次进入扩张周期。数 据显示，截至9月18日，年内浮息债发行规模已近2700亿元，同比大幅增长。 今年以来，我国浮息债市场呈现加速扩容态势。 华西证券研报显示，当前我国浮息债市场规模仍处于较低水平，浮息债存量规模占所有债券余额的比重 仅为0.3%。 曾刚认为，浮息债市场存在四大瓶颈：一是市场规模与品种 ...

Group 1 - The report suggests that in the current weak bond market, maintaining a bullet-type portfolio may lead to instability in liabilities, while adopting a trading strategy could enhance returns despite limited execution time and space [1][6][35] - It is recommended to focus on whether interest rates are oversold and if there is a short-term downward adjustment opportunity, as the probability of significant upward movement in interest rates remains low [1][6][35] - The current high level of the futures long-short ratio indicates that short-selling pressure is weak, suggesting that prices are not oversold, with the average cost of 10-year government bonds held by funds around 1.8% [2][7][17] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that if market sentiment reverses and interest rates decline smoothly, a shift back to a buy-on-dips strategy could be considered, although this requires specific events such as a central bank rate cut [2][3][36] - Investors are advised to focus on active long-term interest rate bonds, with expected volatility for 10-year government bonds in the range of 1.7-1.8% [2][3][36] - The report highlights the importance of selecting bonds based on the yield curve and value, recommending specific bonds such as 25T6 for long-term interest rate bonds and 240208 for medium-term bonds [12][9][10] Group 3 - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes that while the funding environment remains loose, attention should be gradually shifted away from medium to long-term credit bonds due to potential funding fluctuations in the upcoming months [3][12] - The report indicates that the performance of TF and T contracts has been relatively better than cash bonds, with the TL main contract being cheaper [3][13] - The report provides a weekly review of the bond market, noting a slight decline in overall interest rates, with short-term bonds performing better under the current conditions [14][15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for reform and innovation to promote high-quality development in the bond market, focusing on product, technology, and institutional innovations to address existing challenges and stimulate financing for innovative enterprises [1][2][3]. Group 1: Current State of the Bond Market - China's bond market has achieved significant growth, with a total outstanding scale exceeding 180 trillion yuan, maintaining its position as the second largest globally [2]. - The bond market plays a crucial role in China's financial system, with recent reforms aimed at increasing direct financing and supporting technological innovation [2][3]. - Despite its size, the bond market faces structural challenges compared to mature international markets, including market segmentation and liquidity issues [3][4]. Group 2: Structural Challenges - There are issues with market segmentation and liquidity, particularly between the interbank and exchange markets [4]. - Product innovation and risk management tools are insufficient, with a low issuance ratio of bonds rated below AA, failing to meet the financing needs of small and medium-sized enterprises [4]. - The credit rating mechanism has systemic biases, with over 90% of bonds rated AA or above, leading to distorted risk pricing [4]. - The application of financial technology is lagging, particularly in integrating blockchain and digital currency with traditional systems [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation Pathways - The article proposes a "three-in-one" innovation approach focusing on product, technology, and institutional innovations to enhance the bond market [5][6]. - Product innovation should target the financing needs of innovative enterprises, particularly in the technology sector, with a significant increase in the issuance of technology bonds expected in 2024 [6][7]. - The bond market's product system needs improvement, with gaps in areas such as inflation-linked bonds and catastrophe bonds [8]. Group 4: Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is essential for the digital and intelligent transformation of the bond market, with applications of blockchain, AI, and big data expected to enhance market efficiency [10][11]. - The integration of blockchain technology has already begun in China, with the launch of a blockchain digital bond platform [11][12]. - Future technological advancements should focus on establishing unified standards and data ecosystems to overcome current fragmentation and privacy concerns [12]. Group 5: Institutional Innovation - Institutional innovation is critical for addressing structural contradictions in the bond market, including market segmentation and inadequate risk pricing mechanisms [13][14]. - Proposed reforms include creating unified management regulations for the bond market and enhancing the interconnectivity between different market segments [13]. - Strengthening risk prevention measures through AI and big data technologies is necessary for maintaining market stability [14]. Group 6: Synergistic Development - The synergy between product, technology, and institutional innovations is vital for enhancing market efficiency and resource allocation [15][16]. - This collaboration can lead to improved risk management and support for national strategies, particularly in green finance and technological innovation [16][17]. - The development of a new market ecosystem driven by these innovations is expected to foster long-term competitiveness in the bond market [17].

Group 1 - The current 30-year government bond yield is around 2.05%, with a potential space of about 5 basis points for a small position in a rebound, focusing on central bank support [1] - For long-end trading, attention should be on bonds like 25T5 and 230023, with a preference for 4-5 year government bonds and avoiding 6Y and 8-9Y government development bonds [1] - The 10-year government bond spread is currently around 3 basis points, indicating a need for a bond switch as the excess value of new 10-year bonds is not strong [1] Group 2 - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has the best performance in terms of drawdown control during the recent bond market adjustment, with a net value stability and controlled drawdown [2] - The table provided shows various ETFs with their respective performance metrics, highlighting the Ping An ETF's 23.55% return over the past week and a 3.89% return over the past year [2] - Other ETFs listed show varying performance, with some experiencing significant drawdowns, indicating a diverse range of investment outcomes in the bond market [2]