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英国央行货币政策委员Taylor:认为2025年需要降息5次。能源价格的冲击仍然是一个很大的未知数。预计中性利率在2.75% - 3%左右。
news flash· 2025-07-02 10:01
英国央行货币政策委员Taylor:认为2025年需要降息5次。 预计中性利率在2.75% - 3%左右。 能源价格的冲击仍然是一个很大的未知数。 ...
7月1日欧洲央行辛特拉论坛要点回顾:鲍威尔提出7月降息可能性
news flash· 2025-07-01 22:39
Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggested the possibility of interest rate cuts in July but did not formally endorse the idea [1] - European Central Bank President Lagarde indicated that 2025 could be a "critical year" for the status of the US dollar as a global reserve currency [2] - Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that UK interest rates are in a "downward channel," but the motivation for past rate cuts may be limited due to low household debt [2] - Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong mentioned that South Korea's inflation rate is well stabilized, but the central bank is closely monitoring rising financial stability risks when deciding on the timing and pace of rate cuts [2] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo noted that Japan's interest rates are currently below neutral levels, but he cautioned against using theoretical rates as a guideline in "cloudy" circumstances [2]
欧央行行长拉加德称降息周期接近尾声,还夸了鲍威尔
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-01 17:01
Core Viewpoint - ECB President Lagarde expressed caution regarding future monetary policy, emphasizing that while inflation targets have been met, the overall mission is not complete [1][2]. Inflation - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2%, aligning with the ECB's target, indicating that inflation goals have been achieved [2][3]. Interest Rate Path - Lagarde stated that the interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end, but no pre-commitment to future rate changes will be made, with decisions to be based on data from each meeting [3][4]. - Current market expectations suggest a nearly 50% probability of another rate cut in September [3]. Neutral Interest Rate - Lagarde downplayed the significance of discussing the Eurozone's neutral interest rate, suggesting it may be higher than in the past and that current discussions are somewhat unrealistic given the existing economic conditions [4]. Dollar Status - Lagarde indicated that 2025 could be a pivotal year for the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, acknowledging existing fractures but noting that significant changes will take time [5][6]. - The ECB sees an opportunity for the euro to play a larger international role amid a weakening dollar and urges governments to advance reforms for deeper capital markets [5]. Digital Euro - Lagarde reiterated the importance of a digital euro, emphasizing that currency is a public good and warning against the privatization of money, which could undermine monetary policy and national sovereignty [7]. Challenges and Opportunities in Europe - Lagarde highlighted significant challenges facing Europe, such as reduced protection from the U.S. and declining cheap energy, but also noted these could present new opportunities [8]. - She expressed hope that 2025 will be a transformative year for lifestyle and business models in Europe, contingent on political action [8].
日本央行植田和男:中性利率的预测区间很宽。
news flash· 2025-07-01 14:03
日本央行植田和男:中性利率的预测区间很宽。 ...
7月1日电,日本央行行长植田和男表示,当前利率低于中性水平,中性利率的估算范围非常宽泛。
news flash· 2025-07-01 14:01
智通财经7月1日电,日本央行行长植田和男表示,当前利率低于中性水平,中性利率的估算范围非常宽 泛。 ...
美联储巴尔金:可能的中性利率估计将随着时间的推移而缓慢上升。
news flash· 2025-06-26 13:34
美联储巴尔金:可能的中性利率估计将随着时间的推移而缓慢上升。 ...
蓝莓外汇BBMarkets:美联储未来12月或面临双向政策风险
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 05:53
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve faces dual policy risks of potential interest rate hikes or significant cuts in the next 12 months, with current market pricing reflecting only the baseline scenario [1][3] - The probability of an interest rate hike is assessed at around 15%, linked to Republican fiscal expansion and tariff transmission, with tariffs potentially driving inflation [1] - Current average tariffs on U.S. imports have reached the highest level since 1938 at 15%, indicating that price increases driven by tariffs have not fully materialized yet [1] Group 2 - The risk of interest rate cuts arises from a potential unexpected weakening in the labor market, which could lead to cuts exceeding the current Wall Street expectation of 100 basis points by the end of 2026 [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that achieving a neutral interest rate would require "multiple rate cuts," but tariff policies may push inflation higher, creating a policy tension with calls for significant rate cuts [3] - The current federal funds rate has been maintained in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for over six months, with market pricing indicating a delay in the first rate cut to September and a reduction in the total cut magnitude to 50 basis points for the year [3]
日本央行审议委员田村直树:中性利率至少在1%左右。日本的实际利率显著为负。正密切关注企业在价格和工资方面的行为。应尽早实现日本国债持有量的正常化。增强市场吸收冲击的功能至关重要。
news flash· 2025-06-25 05:33
应尽早实现日本国债持有量的正常化。 日本的实际利率显著为负。 增强市场吸收冲击的功能至关重要。 日本央行审议委员田村直树:中性利率至少在1%左右。 正密切关注企业在价格和工资方面的行为。 ...
日本央行审议委员田村直树:我相信日本的中性利率至少在1%。
news flash· 2025-06-25 05:26
日本央行审议委员田村直树:我相信日本的中性利率至少在1%。 ...
6月25日电,日本央行审议委员田村直树称,相信日本的中性利率至少在1%。
news flash· 2025-06-25 05:25
智通财经6月25日电,日本央行审议委员田村直树称,相信日本的中性利率至少在1%。 ...