Core Viewpoint - The influx of tariff revenues and immigration is contributing to a decrease in the neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Tariff revenues are currently flowing into the economy, which is exerting downward pressure on the neutral interest rate [1] - Immigration is also identified as a factor that is lowering the neutral interest rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - Pimco bets on a decline in UK inflation, expecting the Bank of England to cut rates more aggressively than current market expectations suggest [2][3] Group 1: Pimco's Position - Pimco, managing $2 trillion in assets, is overweight on 5-year UK government bonds, which will benefit from more aggressive rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] - Andrew Balls, Pimco's Chief Investment Officer, believes that the UK economy will not be an extreme outlier in terms of inflation [2] Group 2: Current Economic Context - The UK's current inflation rate stands at 3.8%, projected to be the highest among G7 countries this year, driven by significant food price increases [2] - Market traders expect the Bank of England to lower the policy rate from the current 4% only 1 to 2 times by the end of next year, with each cut being 25 basis points [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Pimco forecasts that UK inflation will improve by the end of next year, approaching the Bank of England's target of 2% [3] - The anticipated improvement in inflation will allow the policy rate to align closer to Pimco's estimated neutral rate of 2.75% [3] Group 4: Government Actions and Implications - The UK Chancellor has indicated that the government may introduce new taxes to address a fiscal shortfall of over £20 billion, which could further increase inflation [3] - Market participants are advised to closely monitor the upcoming budget and its potential impact on inflation through measures like tariffs and VAT [3]

新华财经北京9月25日电（崔凯）日本央行25日公布的货币政策会议纪要显示，多位政策委员对当前经 济与通胀形势表达了审慎乐观，但内部对货币政策正常化的节奏存在明显分歧。 9月19日，日本央行货币政策会议以7比2的投票结果决定维持基准利率在0.5%不变，连续第五次会议按 兵不动，符合市场预期。同时，该行全票通过将开始出售所持交易所交易基金（ETF）及日本房地产投 资信托（J-REIT），出售规模原则上将与"从金融机构购入股票"的规模大体相当，并强调避免对金融市 场造成不稳定影响。 本次议息会议最显著的特征在于"静态平衡"表象下的动态调整。尽管维持利率不变，但日本央行同步启 动ETF抛售机制，标志着量化宽松政策的实质性收缩。据政策声明，此次资产处置将遵循"避免市场动 荡"原则，规模与金融机构股票购入量大体相当。 多位委员表达了类似观点。一位委员表示，若通胀率持续高于2%较长时间，日本央行应适时调整货币 政策支持力度；另一委员则强调，"从风险管理角度看，在适当的时候加息至关重要"，并主张"应尽可 能尽早加息"，因当前政策利率已低于中性区间，过度谨慎恐错失时机。 然而，亦有委员提醒需保持耐心。一位委员指出，日本央行在做 ...

Group 1 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasizes a cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to weakening economic growth and a soft labor market [1][3] - The recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% was supported, but future adjustments will depend on economic data [1][3] - Goolsbee describes the current economic environment as shrouded in "stagflation fog," indicating that any rate cuts should be gradual to avoid new economic volatility [3][4] Group 2 - Concerns exist regarding the potential for tariffs implemented since April to push prices higher, complicating policy decisions [4] - The neutral interest rate, defined as neither suppressing nor stimulating the economy, is estimated at around 3.1%, suggesting about a 1% room for further rate cuts [4] - The Fed may consider two more rate cuts this year, one in each of the remaining quarters [4] Group 3 - Labor market signals are critical indicators, with a current unemployment rate of 4.3% remaining historically low despite a slowdown in hiring [6] - The Chicago Fed has launched a new labor monitoring system to better capture employment market changes, integrating eleven types of high-frequency data [6] - If the economy continues to move towards inflation targets, further rate cuts may be possible, but each step will require solid economic progress [6]

Group 1 - The core issue behind the political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve is whether it can "manipulate" interest rates and the implications of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [1][5] - The market is optimistic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the short term, influenced by Trump's potential nominations for a "dovish" shadow chairman [2][20] - The Federal Reserve can "set" but not "manipulate" policy interest rates, as interest rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors [3][45] Group 2 - The U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation is in a "quasi-war state," necessitating fiscal consolidation to manage rising deficits and leverage ratios [7] - Sustainable fiscal consolidation can be achieved through economic growth or budget cuts, each with different political costs [7] - A decrease in the basic fiscal deficit rate by 1 percentage point could lead to a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield by 12-35 basis points [5][7] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's long-term ability to manipulate the yield curve is limited, and the trend of rising yield premiums on U.S. Treasuries is likely to continue [4] - The market tends to price in overly "dovish" expectations during rate hike cycles and overly "hawkish" expectations during rate cut cycles [4] - The transition from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" policies is crucial for the Federal Reserve's future rate cut space [5][20]

古尔斯比的观点颇具深度，尤其在当前美国经济面临众多不确定因素的背景下。他明确表示，尽管美国 劳动力市场的放缓引发了一些经济学家的警惕，但他并不认为这种放缓是即将到来的衰退的前兆。 特别是在低失业率和劳动力市场的"温和降温"背景下，古尔斯比坚持认为，美国经济的基本面仍然坚 实。 随着2025年接近，全球经济的动态变化引起了市场和政策制定者的广泛关注。特别是在美国，金融政策 的调整和国内经济的波动成了关注的焦点之一。近期，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比在接受《金融时报》采 访时，分享了他对美联储未来货币政策的看法，以及对美国经济的判断。这些言论为我们提供了一个不 同于常规经济解读的视角，也引发了关于经济与政策未来走向的新思考。 在美联储的货币政策走向上，古尔斯比的立场相对谨慎。他支持上周美联储决定降息25个基点，但对于 是否继续大幅降息，他持保留意见。美联储的利率政策不仅关乎当前经济的调整，更直接影响到未来经 济的稳定性和增长潜力。 古尔斯比指出，美国经济的低失业率和劳动力市场的适度降温表明，美联储无需急于采取激进的降息措 施。相反，逐步走向中性利率水平可能是更为合理的选择。中性利率的目标并不是通过刺激经济增长， 而是通 ...

格隆汇9月24日｜美国财长贝森特：美联储利率已过高太久了，我们将进入宽松周期。对美联储主席鲍 威尔尚未暗示利率目标感到惊讶。就业数据的修正表明有些地方出了问题。下周将举行多场美联储采 访。不确定鲍威尔为何有所退缩。美联储主席鲍威尔本应发出100至150个基点降息的信号。我们需要降 低利率，至少回归到中性利率。相信我们将看到通货膨胀大幅下降。我们将拭目以待，看看这场人工智 能热潮将如何发展。正在寻找一位思想开放的人担任美联储主席。 (谈阿根廷)正与他们合作，以结束商品生产商兑换外汇的税收优惠期。我们随时准备采取必要措施予以 支持。已准备好购买阿根廷的美元债券，并将视条件适时进行。已准备好通过外汇稳定基金提供大规模 备用信贷，正与米莱团队进行讨论。目前正与阿根廷官员就与阿根廷央行达成200亿美元的互换额度进 行谈判。将努力防止过度波动。美国已准备好购买二级或一级政府债务。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）于本周二发表讲话，在经济增长放缓与就业市场疲软的双重挑战下，强调美联储需在降息路径上保持战略耐 心。尽管他上周与FOMC多数委员共同投票支持降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4%–4.25%，但他也指出，未来的利率决策仍将高度依赖经济数据的 演变。 视 157 i 古尔斯比认为，当前政策的关键在于将利率调整至"中性水平"，即既不抑制经济增长也不引发通胀压力的平衡点。 根据FOMC最新发布的点阵图，委员们对中性利率的预估中值约为3.1%，古尔斯比对此表示认同。这意味着当前利率水平仍高于中性区间约1个百分点，为 后续降息提供了政策空间。 他特别指出，尽管近期通胀有小幅回落，但过去四年半以来物价持续高于美联储2%的目标，且近期受关税政策影响仍存在不确定性。在启动降息周期的初 期阶段，步伐不宜过快，而应采取渐进策略，以避免政策过度宽松带来的风险。 除了通胀，劳动力市场表现亦是政策调整的重要参考。尽管当前失业率维持在4.3%的低位，但招聘节奏已呈现放缓迹象。为更精准地评估就业形势，芝加 哥联储于同日推出了新型劳动力市场监测系统，整合11类高频数据，实时追踪失业率预 ...

市场震荡，黄金价"过山车"：降息预期与央行措辞的拉锯战 2025年9月20日，黄金市场上演了一场惊心动魄的"过山车"。交易大厅里，买卖双方的心情如同被释放的野猫，既充满期待又焦躁不安。 一边是市场对降息的殷切期盼，另一边则是对美联储措辞的谨慎戒备，这种复杂情绪交织，将整个市场搅得天翻地覆。 当日纽约尾盘，现货黄金价格触及3684.93美元/盎司，劲扬1.12%；期货黄金亦跟随攀升至3719.42美元/盎司，涨幅同样为1.12%。这一波 上涨，让本周黄金累计涨幅逼近1%。表面上看，这似乎是一次漂亮的"失地收复"，然而，深入剖析，却能发现其中暗流涌动，支撑并不 稳固。正如一位在场内进行日内交易的操盘手私下透露："涨幅数据很好看，但筹码并不干净。"他话语中流露出的不安与庆幸，正是市 场真实写照的缩影。 回溯至9月17日，美联储如期宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至4.00%—4.25%区间。本应成为黄金的重大利好，因为降低名义 利率通常会压低持有美元的机会成本，从而提振金价。事实也如预期般，黄金盘中一度飙升至3707美元，创下历史新高。然而，好景不 不长，随后的两个交易日，金价出现连续回吐，短线大幅下挫。这是 ...

智通财经APP获悉，交易员们正在降低对美联储未来数月降息幅度的预期，这一转变表明，美联储官员 们发出的混乱信息已经影响了人们对货币政策的预期。 与担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的期权显示，市场参与者押注美联储在2025年仅再降息25个基点，且所谓的中 性利率(即既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的利率水平)高于当前市场预期。这与上周形成了鲜明对比，当时 市场对年底前降息50个基点的预期升温。 中性利率预期在美联储9月会议后小幅上升 美联储上周将政策利率下调至4%至4.25%的区间，这是该机构今年的首次降息。 此次会议之后的几天里，大量交易瞄准的利率变动幅度低于目前掉期市场所定价的约两次25个基点的变 动幅度。从更长远的时间来看，期权市场还出现了暗示中性利率接近3%的交易。 利率互换市场目前预计中性利率约为2.95%，并预计今年剩余两次会议总共降息约40个基点。 美联储官员最近几周发表的更广泛的货币政策观点推动了这种转变，交易员纷纷对冲美联储大幅降息和 降息幅度较小的情景。 新任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰本周表示，政策目前仍过于紧缩，并主张在2025年剩余的两次联邦公开市 场委员会(FOMC)会议上将利率下调125个基点。而亚特兰大联 ...