在08年的金融危机发生时，因为日元的表现十分坚挺，所以一度被人们当作避险货币，但近期日元一度发生贬值，日元兑美元汇率已经直逼130，可以说是 让人大跌眼镜。如果是在以前，日元贬值还会吸引大批游客到日本旅游，但疫情的肆虐让日本的观光经济受到了一定的冲击，日本人民也对该国的经济发展 感到忧心忡忡。 美联储加息带给日元的冲击 美联储的加息做法是对日元的最大冲击，因为美元加息后会让资本闻风而动，许多资本会选择抛售日元资产，转而投入美元资产的怀抱，因此日元的汇率一 直在急转直下。日本央行在得知美国加息的做法后，没有选择追随美国，而是想要通过降息的策略来保证日本本国的利率，这也导致资本大量流入美国，日 元便迎来了近二十年的最低汇率。 日元贬值的同时疫情也没好转，这极大地影响了日本人的生活，日本的许多工厂不能开工，进口产品还要支付高昂的物流费，所以很多实体店出现了倒闭情 况。之前的日本极度依赖进口产品，但是发生日元贬值这个事后进口业务有可能锐减。 美联储加息的政策一定程度上也会影响到人民币的贬值情况，不过中国对此有自己到一套应对方法，首先是央行调低了外汇存款储备金，央行根据市场情况 适度调整外汇存款准备金工具，这能起到控制 ...

作 者丨林秋彤 编 辑丨肖嘉 图 源丨摄图网 近期，受美国"对等关税"政策影响，全球金融市场震荡，不确定性显著增强。 2 1世纪经济报道记者注意到，在岸和离岸人民币对美元汇率先是短线走低，释放贬值压力后 转而回调，目前均收复7 . 3元关口。截至记者发稿，在岸人民币对美元报7 . 2 9 2 6元，离岸人民 币对美元报7 . 2 8 1 3元。 与 此 同 时 ， 美 元 指 数 持 续 承 压 。 Wi n d 数 据 显 示 ， 4 月 11 日 美 元 指 数 已 跌 破 1 0 0 ， 日 内 跌 幅 达 1 . 1 4％，最新报9 9 . 7 9 0 6。而此前自2 0 2 4年11月6日起，美元指数保持在1 0 5以上的高位已持 续了近半年。 | < w | 美元指数 ರ | | --- | --- | | USDX.FX | | | 99.7690 前收 | | | -1.1682 -1.16% 卖出 | 99.7690 买入 99.7690 | | 最高 今年来 | -8.03% 20 日 -3.82% | | 最低 99.0086 | 10 日 | | 时间 23:54 涨跌 | -1.05 ...

作 者丨 唐婧 编 辑丨肖嘉 4月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2 0 2 5年3月末，我国外汇储备规模为3 2 4 0 7亿美元，较2月末上升1 3 4亿美元，升幅为0 . 4 2%。这 是我国外汇储备连续1 6个月站上3 . 2万亿美元大关，也是连续3个月出现环比回升。 国家外汇局表示，2 0 2 5年3月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、财政货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总体下跌。 汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，一揽子存量政策和增量政策继续发力 显效，高质量发展扎实推进，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 多名受访专家告诉2 1世纪经济报道记者，在外部环境复杂多变的情况下，外汇储备充分发挥了国家经济金融安全的"稳定器"和"压舱石"作用， 已经帮助我国成功经受住了多轮外部冲击的考验，这一次也不会例外。 例如，汇管研究院副院长、对外经贸大学金融学院兼职教授、国际金融专家赵庆明告诉记者，我国外汇储备长期以来稳定在3万亿美元之上， 是全球第一大外汇储备国，远超排在第二的国家。如此雄厚的外汇储备资产，将继续维护我国经济和金 ...

Policy Overview - The current market's core conflict has shifted to the struggle between economic downturn and policy countermeasures, with a focus on stabilizing the stock market as a macroeconomic indicator[3] - The political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to set the tone for new reserve policies[3] Currency Stability - The exchange rate's bottom line is expected to remain unbroken, serving as a stabilizing anchor for the market, with a critical level of 7.35 (USD/CNY) to be defended[3][4] - A depreciation of the RMB is seen as more harmful than beneficial, potentially exacerbating capital outflow risks[3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - A reduction in reserve requirements (RRR) is anticipated to occur before interest rate cuts, with structural monetary policy tools being prioritized[5] - The focus on structural monetary policy is to support low-cost funding in key consumption areas while maintaining exchange rate stability[5] Consumption Focus - Increasing service consumption is identified as a priority policy option, as traditional investment potential is diminishing[5] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to better guide market expectations compared to traditional investment stimuli[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, fluctuations in exports, and unforeseen U.S. trade policies[5]

作者： 陶川 张云杰 钟渝梅 一方面，当前环境下人民币贬值"弊大于利"。 面对高额关税，人民币贬值对冲外贸的效果微乎其微，反而可能加剧资金外流的风险。从 近年经验来看， 7.35 （美元兑人民币）或是需要"坚守"的底线。 另一方面，人民币贬值也与我国"捍卫多边主义"的基调不符。 近年来，其他主要亚洲货币基本"锚定"人民币汇率波动。若人民币"失 守"，可能引起其他经济体的"竞争性"贬值，对稳定市场、构建反制同盟等均有不利影响。 其次，降准或快于降息，辅之于结构性货币政策利率调降。 为什么降准优先于降息？ 从 2023 年以来的历次操作来看，降准开始更多承载稳定市场的功能。尤其在 2024 年 12 月政治局会议上，首次 将"稳住楼市股市"作为经济工作的重点任务。 考虑到关税已落地、二季度政府债供给压力上行等，预计降准将先行落地以对冲市场下 跌。 如我们上篇报告《 关税风暴：政策对冲的经济账 》所述，随着关税风险的兑现， 当前市场的核心矛盾已转化为经济下行和政策对冲的角 力。 打铁还需自身硬，清明假期最后一天官媒的发声，表明决策层已经就应对冲击做好了各种预案， 我们预计 4 月底的政治局会议将给 增量的储备政策定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline of the US dollar index and its implications for the global economy, particularly focusing on the stability of the Chinese yuan amidst these fluctuations [1][2][7]. Group 1: US Dollar Decline - The US dollar index has dropped significantly, falling over 3% since March 3, approaching the 104 mark, which is the lowest since November 2024 [2]. - Weak economic indicators in the US, including stagnation in manufacturing activity, rising inflation pressures, and a widening trade deficit, are contributing to the dollar's decline [2]. - The Atlanta Fed's model predicts a potential GDP contraction of 2.825% for the first quarter of 2025, marking the worst performance since 2019 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The decline in the dollar has led to a corresponding drop in US stock indices, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones experiencing declines of 7.5%, 4.91%, and 3.63% respectively from February 20 to March 5 [2]. - Multiple maturities of US Treasury yields have also decreased, indicating a broader market reaction to the economic outlook [3]. Group 3: "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" is a proposed economic policy framework by the Trump administration aimed at addressing the US trade deficit and the overvaluation of the dollar through currency coordination and tariff adjustments [4]. - The proposal includes converting $36 trillion of US debt into 100-year zero-coupon bonds, potentially alleviating interest payment burdens for the Federal Reserve [4][5]. - The agreement faces significant challenges, including the need for cooperation from foreign central banks and the impact of private sector holdings of US debt [5]. Group 4: Stability of the Chinese Yuan - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience, with the offshore yuan appreciating less than 1% despite the dollar's significant decline, reflecting a stable exchange rate policy by the Chinese government [1][7]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented measures to stabilize the yuan, including issuing offshore central bank bills and adjusting macro-prudential parameters for cross-border financing [7]. - Analysts suggest that the yuan's stability is part of a broader strategy to maintain a reasonable equilibrium in the currency market, as indicated by the CFETS index remaining strong [7][8].

坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，保持汇率弹性。同时，强化预期引导，坚决防范汇率超调 风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。 同时，综合运用公开市场操作、中期借贷便利、再贷款再贴现、政策利率等货币政策工具， 保持市场流动性的充裕，降低银行负债成本，持续推动社会综合融资成本下降，使社会融资 规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 3月6日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会上表示， 今 年，我们将根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，择机降准降息。 目前金融机构 存款准备金率平均为6.6%，还有下行空间，中央银行向商业银行提供的结构性货币政策工 具资金利率也有下行空间。 来源：第一财经 ...

潘功胜表示，中国人民银行将实施好适度宽松的货币政策。在结构上，加大对重点战略领域和薄弱环节予 以支持，进一步扩大科技创新和技术改造再贷款规模。 3月6日（星期四）下午，十四届全国人大三次会议举行记者会，邀请国家发展和改革委员会主 任郑栅洁、财政部部长蓝佛安、商务部部长王文涛、中国人民银行行长潘功胜、中国证券监督管 理委员会主席吴清，就发展改革、财政预算、商务、金融证券等相关问题回答中外记者提问。 潘功胜表示，与证监会探索常态化的制度安排，支持资本市场发展。 3月6日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会上表示，去年以来货币政策 逆周期调节效果比较明显，货币政策取向是一种对状态的描述，今年将根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市 场情况，择机降准降息，目前存款准备金率还有下行空间。 潘功胜还表示，加强金融政策与产业政策的协同，在金融资源政策支持方向上做到有保有控。 潘功胜表示，在政策传导上，中国人民银行将进一步完善利率调控机制，持续强化利率政策执行和监督， 对一些不合理的容易削减货币政策传导的市场行为，加强规范，推动落实银行补充资本金措施，畅通利率 传导机制。 对于人民币汇率，潘功胜表示，我们在 ...

Economic Growth and Inflation - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at "around 5.0%", consistent with last year's target and actual growth, aligning with market expectations[2] - The CPI control target is set at "around 2.0%", marking the first time since 2004 that the target is below 3%, indicating a focus on moderate price recovery[3] Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The fiscal deficit rate target for 2025 is increased to 4.0%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a fiscal deficit scale reaching 5.66 trillion yuan[5] - The new local government special bond issuance scale is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from last year, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy stance[4] Investment and Debt Management - The total new government debt issuance for 2025 is projected at 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending intensity[8] - 8 billion yuan of the new special bonds will be used to replace existing local government hidden debts, helping to control debt risks and alleviate repayment pressures[6] Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential interest rate cuts of up to 0.5 percentage points, which is higher than the 0.3 percentage point cut in 2024[10] - The central bank may continue to implement structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors, with expectations for increased new credit and social financing[11] External Trade and Risk Management - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize external trade development amid increasing external economic uncertainties, with measures to support cross-border e-commerce and service trade[12] - The focus on stabilizing the real estate market includes increasing loan support for "white list" projects and controlling new land supply to mitigate risks of corporate debt defaults[13]