2025.11. 30 本文字数：2667，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 泽连斯基在例行视频讲话中说，他不希望外界对乌克兰产生质疑，希望消除任何谣言和猜测。因此， 按照"内部决定"，总统办公室将重组，叶尔马克已递交辞呈。29日，他将与可能接替这一职位的人选 进行磋商。 辞职后，叶尔马克28日晚对外表示，他将奔赴俄乌冲突的前线，并已准备好承担一切后果。 值得注意的是，除了担任乌克兰总统办公室主任，叶尔马克还有个重要身份：俄乌和谈乌克兰谈判代 表团团长。数天前，在乌克兰与美国关于俄乌"和平计划"的谈判中，正是叶尔马克出面斡旋，说服美 方同意对"28点新计划"作出大幅修改。 当前正逢乌克兰与美国、俄罗斯开启新一轮谈判的关键时刻。俄乌和谈后续如何推进？ 23日美国国务卿鲁比奥（右）和乌克兰总统办公室主任叶尔马克共同会见记者（新华社图） 乌兰政坛"二把手" 今年54岁的叶尔马克被视为泽连斯基政府的关键人物。早年叶尔马克在乌克兰的法律和影视圈内积 累了深厚的人脉。在泽连斯基还是喜剧演员时，叶尔马克就是他的密友，并有十多年的交情。2019 年泽连斯基参选乌克兰总统时，正是在叶尔马克的帮助下，登上了乌克兰政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Andrei Yermak, a key aide to Ukrainian President Zelensky, adds uncertainty to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations, especially at a critical moment when talks are resuming between Ukraine and the U.S. regarding a "peace plan" [1][6]. Group 1: Yermak's Role and Resignation - Yermak, who served as the head of the Ukrainian President's Office and the chief negotiator for Ukraine in peace talks, submitted his resignation amid a corruption investigation involving his office [1][5]. - His departure is seen as significant due to his extensive experience and established relationships in negotiations, which may not be easily replicated by a successor [6][8]. - Yermak's resignation follows a search of his residence by anti-corruption authorities, although he has stated he is cooperating with the investigation [5][6]. Group 2: Political Context and Implications - Yermak has been a pivotal figure in Zelensky's administration, helping him rise to power and later expanding his influence during the ongoing conflict [3][4]. - His attempts to consolidate power within the government have led to tensions and controversies, raising questions about the internal dynamics of the Ukrainian government [4]. - The timing of his resignation coincides with critical negotiations, which may impact the progress of peace talks, as Yermak was viewed as a trusted negotiator by Zelensky [6][8]. Group 3: Ongoing Negotiations - The U.S. and Ukraine recently modified a proposed "peace plan," reducing it from 28 points to 19, indicating a willingness to negotiate further [7][8]. - Russian President Putin has set conditions for a ceasefire, complicating the negotiation landscape as he demands Ukrainian withdrawal from claimed territories [7][8]. - The upcoming meetings involving Ukrainian representatives and U.S. officials are expected to address the revised peace plan, with Yermak's absence potentially affecting the discussions [8][9].

11月28日晚间，现货黄金(伦敦金现)直线拉升，盘中一度突破4200美元/盎司，刷新近两周盘中新高。截 至发稿，现货黄金报4198.020美元/盎司，涨近1%，COMEX黄金期货同步上涨，报4222.8美元/盎司。 兴业期货28日早报称，CME数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率升至86.9%。美联储降息周期未 结束。金价支撑增强，长线看涨逻辑清晰。 国信期货28日发布报告认为，短期来看，贵金属市场预计将在避险需求与政策观望之间维持震荡格局。 技术面上，纽约黄金需重点关注能否有效站稳4200美元/盎司一线，若能企稳该位置，则下一阻力位上 看4250美元/盎司附近。操作上建议以回调后轻仓布局多单为主，重点关注俄乌和谈进展及欧美央行政 策信号演变。 现货白银日内涨幅扩大至超2%，报54.62美元/盎司，创历史新高。 SPTAGUSDO 2017-11- (40) 100 150 150 修效糖酸 d a t do do at the iller in the min PTAGEADOCHISOCHERED - 2022-06-12 - 8: MASSO STAT 8 黑水 t M 11:00 PM IN M ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on November 27, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum rose over 6%, Shanghai silver rose over 3%, eggs and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, and palm oil rose nearly 2%. Palladium, soybean meal, glass, peanuts, and industrial silicon rose over 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate fell nearly 2%, and asphalt and short - fiber fell over 1%. CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.11%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.11%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract fell 0.34%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract fell 0.08%. 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract fell 0.01%, 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.06%, and 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.01% [5][6] - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 27, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 3.12 billion yuan, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.146 billion yuan, and Shanghai tin 2601 had an inflow of 668 million yuan. On the other hand, rebar 2601 had an outflow of 578 million yuan, apple 2601 had an outflow of 528 million yuan, and coking coal 2601 had an outflow of 464 million yuan [6] 2. Commodity Analysis Copper - Copper opened high and moved low, showing a slightly stronger oscillation. US initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 in the week ending November 22, lower than the expected 225,000. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is ongoing, with the rough smelting and refining fees remaining stable. Refined copper imports decreased month - on - month, but domestic copper supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange copper has been accumulating, and there is no shortage of supply for now. The 770th document has not been implemented yet, and the operation of recycled copper rod enterprises is cautious. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, down over 10% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. Recently, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has declined after reaching a high, and the inventory pressure has eased but is still high year - on - year. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price has rebounded. If the positive factors do not materialize, the copper price may decline slightly [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, with a decline during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,850 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the lithium carbonate output was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher year - on - year. The price of spodumene increased, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by the season. In October, the domestic output of energy - storage batteries was 54.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, up 21.1% and 20% year - on - year. After being stimulated by industry news, the futures price rose and then fell. The sustainability of downstream energy - storage orders is questionable, and the price has been fluctuating weakly in the past two days. It is recommended to operate with caution [10] Crude Oil - On November 2, eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November increase plans, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30. This will increase the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve the pressure in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US refined oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the increase in US crude oil inventories also exceeded expectations due to increased net imports. The overall oil inventory has increased slightly. US crude oil production is near the historical high. However, the number of active US oil drilling platforms decreased by 12, increasing the expectation that low oil prices will limit US crude oil production growth. The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky said he will continue to negotiate the peace plan with the US. The risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined, but it is difficult to reach a peace agreement in the near term. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has intensified, raising concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. With the end of the consumption peak season, the decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and the unclear prospect of US interest rate cuts, the market is worried about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the Middle East's exports are increasing. The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate at a low level [11][13] Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% last week, lower than the same period last year. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year. The operating rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed performance last week, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 34%, restricted by funds and weather. In the Northeast region, asphalt production increased, and sales volume increased significantly after price cuts. The national sales volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons, at a slightly low level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat, near the lowest level in recent years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area shut down a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened under the US military threat. Shandong Shengxing and other refineries will stably produce asphalt this week, and the asphalt operating rate will increase. With the decline in northern temperatures, road construction is coming to an end, and the demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited, and the overall demand is dull. The basis of Shandong asphalt has remained at a neutral level, and the market is cautious. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [14] PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the main downstream woven products of PP remained flat at 44.24%, and the orders decreased slightly compared with the previous year. On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 83%, at a slightly low - to - neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn products remained at around 31%. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders such as woven products is limited, the price of BOPP film has declined, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales. With supply surplus and weakening cost support, it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly [15][16] Plastic - On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of plastic enterprises remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders, at a neutral level in the same period over the years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film has increased slightly again, and the orders of packaging film have increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE and 700,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was recently put into operation. The operating rate of plastic has decreased slightly. The agricultural film is at the end of the peak season, with stable orders but the peak season is not as good as expected. With the temperature drop, the demand in the north has begun to decrease, and the price of agricultural film has started to decline. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises have low purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally offer discounts to sell actively. With the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern and weakening cost support, it is expected that plastic will continue to fluctuate weakly in the near term [17] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. Currently, the operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate of PVC continued to decline slightly, still at a low level although higher than the past two years. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating the concern about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is also likely to be cancelled, and PVC exports increased last week through price cuts. However, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China generally decreased by $30 - 60 per ton. The social inventory increased slightly last week and is still high, with great inventory pressure. From January to October 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further declined. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The real estate market needs time to improve. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the operating rate of PVC is higher than in previous years. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of Tianjin Bohua is operating at full capacity, and 300,000 tons per year of Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons per year of Jiaxing Jiahua are operating at low capacity after trial operation. There are no actual policies in the PVC industry yet, and most old devices have been upgraded through technological transformation. The elimination of old devices and the solution of over - capacity problems in the petrochemical industry are macro - policies that will affect the future market. The maintenance of production enterprises such as Henan Lianchuang is about to end, the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, the cancellation of India's BIS policy has limited impact, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China have decreased, and the decline in coking coal and other futures prices has dampened market sentiment. Recently, PVC has been fluctuating weakly [18][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, showing a weak performance during the day. In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 1,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1,000 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. According to Mysteel statistics, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 86.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93%. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and the daily customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port may increase next week. However, there is still an expectation of production reduction and shutdown at the end of the year, and it is expected that the production will decrease month - on - month next month. The mine inventory has increased significantly. In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of steel mills and the molten iron output increased last week, with the daily molten iron output at 236,280 tons, a 0.25% month - on - month decrease, and the profit of steel mills continued to weaken. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline seasonally. The decline trend of coking coal has slowed down in the past two days. It is expected that the future fundamentals will show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market situation also needs to pay attention to the winter storage situation at coal ports, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [20] Urea - The futures price of urea opened high and moved high, showing an increase during the day. The market situation has improved slightly, with prices rising. After the low - price quotes rebounded, the order receiving is still good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,580 to 1,610 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 10 yuan/ton, with the high - end quotes in Hebei. Fundamentally, the daily output is significantly higher than the same period over the years. Before the seasonal shutdown of gas - based devices, the daily output of upstream factory devices will remain at a high level. The current daily output data is about 6% higher than last year. The compound fertilizer factories are still operating. After the production of winter - storage fertilizers, the production load is gradually increasing. Although the pre - order situation has been poor recently, the pending orders are still sufficient. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase next week. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories increased by 2.45 percentage points this period. Since the price increase recently, the downstream terminal purchasing speed has increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly. With the reserve demand, the inventory has been decreasing for several weeks, with a 5.1% week - on - week decline this week. Overall, both supply and demand are increasing. The urea price is fluctuating strongly at a low level, with both upward and downward price pressures. The futures price will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range. The current demand is mainly reserve - type demand, with limited sustainability. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream acceptance after the price increase [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a potential decrease in domestic oil prices, with an expected reduction of 80 yuan/ton, translating to a drop of 0.06-0.07 yuan per liter, despite a recent rebound in international oil prices [1][3]. Oil Price Trends - The anticipated decrease in domestic oil prices has reduced by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, suggesting a possible downward trend as it falls below the adjustment threshold [1]. - International oil prices have shown volatility, with U.S. crude oil rising by 0.77% to $58.55 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by 0.92% to $62.47 per barrel, before experiencing a slight decline [3]. - The market is currently facing expectations of oversupply, as indicated by an increase in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories by 2.77 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease [3]. Regional Price Adjustments - The following are the current prices for various fuel types across different regions in China: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 6.89, 95 gasoline at 7.33, 98 gasoline at 8.83, 0 diesel at 6.56 [4]. - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 6.85, 95 gasoline at 7.29, 98 gasoline at 9.19, 0 diesel at 6.50 [4]. - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 6.91, 95 gasoline at 7.48, 98 gasoline at 9.48, 0 diesel at 6.53 [4]. - The price adjustments reflect regional variations, with prices for 92 gasoline ranging from 6.68 in Xinjiang to 8.00 in Hainan [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：经济数据利好美联储12月降息，俄乌和谈又有进展，金价震荡；美国三 大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债 收益率跌3.07个基点报3.996%；美元指数跌0.39%报99.81，离岸人民币对美元大幅 升值报7.0829；COMEX黄金期货涨0.78%报4126.3美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货946.5，现货941.45，基差-5.05，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90423千克，减少3千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are maintaining a volatile trend. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks is slow, the Fed's dovish stance has increased the expectation of a December interest rate cut, boosting risk assets, and the new crude oil import quota issued by the Ministry of Commerce is expected to support China's crude oil imports at the end of the year [2] - Short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and a mid - term short - position allocation is recommended, with a strategy of shorting the calendar spread [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light sweet crude oil futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 78 cents to $58.84 per barrel, a 1.34% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery rose 81 cents to $63.37 per barrel, a 1.29% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.94% at 450 yuan per barrel [1] - JPMorgan Chase believes that due to oversupply, Brent crude oil prices may fall to the $30 - 40 range in 2027. It maintains the average price forecast of Brent crude oil in 2026 at $58 per barrel, expects the average price of WTI crude oil in 2026 to be $54 per barrel, and forecasts the average price of Brent crude oil in 2027 to be $57 per barrel and WTI crude oil to be $53 per barrel [1] - Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ismail Baghaei condemned the recent anti - Iran resolution passed by the IAEA Board of Governors, saying it was a "stain" on the designers and initiators, and that it interfered with the agency's operations and undermined its independence [1] - The US - Ukraine talks in Geneva showed progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but the November 27 deadline for the agreement may be extended to next week. European natural gas prices are still higher than before the 2022 energy crisis, but are now a fraction of the peak, and additional supply is expected to push prices down further in the coming years [1] - The board of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company will increase oil reserves by 7 billion barrels to 120 billion barrels and establish a new company to manage an acid gas field, which is expected to produce 1.8 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas, 150,000 barrels of oil and condensate per day [1] - The total number of US oil rigs for the week ending November 21 was 419, up from 417 the previous week; the total number of US natural gas rigs was 127, up from 125 the previous week [1] Investment Logic - Oil prices are in a volatile state. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach a short - term agreement, the Fed's dovish remarks have increased the December interest rate cut expectation, and the new crude oil import quota is expected to support China's crude oil imports at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile; Mid - term: Short - position allocation, shorting the calendar spread [3] Risks - Downside risks: A peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Oil**: OPEC+ maintains its production - increasing stance, and the global economy and demand are not good. With the new peace talks between Russia and Ukraine attracting market attention and the geopolitical tension risk easing, international oil prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, but the rise of the US stock market has pushed international oil prices to end higher after a decline [1]. - **Silver**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, risk appetite is boosted, and the bullish attribute of precious metals increases. Silver is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the divergence between gold and silver should be noted [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand situation of iron ore is improving marginally, and the demand resilience supports the rebound of ore prices. However, considering the drag of off - season steel, ore prices are expected to have room for correction. It is recommended to combine range trading and selling at high prices [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: In the off - season, steel production may decline seasonally. Although the production of manganese silicon has been decreasing recently, the overall supply contraction is limited due to the upcoming new production capacity. The market inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly, and the price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [4]. - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not obvious recently, inventory is still decreasing, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. Short - term steel prices may fluctuate upwards, but the weak off - season demand may limit the upward space [5]. - **Rubber**: The domestic rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the production - reducing and suspension season, and the supply shortage expectation is rising. However, the arrival of overseas ships is expected to increase, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The clearance process of Australian rapeseed arrivals has become the core focus of the market. The spot market faces the double situation of slow trading rhythm and strong inventory reduction pressure. Short - term rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern [7]. - **Live Pigs**: The current market supply pressure persists. Although the pickling demand in some regions supports pig prices to a certain extent, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and there is a lack of continuous upward momentum. The LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [9]. - **Palm Oil**: Domestic palm oil has continued to arrive in large quantities, leading to inventory accumulation, which is bearish for palm oil. However, the strong willingness of traders and oil mills to support prices provides some support. The near - month contract is expected to run weakly in the short term [9]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The winning bid rate of the Treasury cash is lower than the previous period, indicating a significant decline in inter - bank capital costs and a continuous loosening of the capital market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards in the medium term [10]. - **Gold**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are increasing. Gold is expected to fluctuate upwards and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [10]. - **PX**: Due to good blending oil benefits and other factors, PXN continues to expand, which strongly supports PX. PX is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the risk of a sharp drop in crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is decreasing. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2060 level [11][12]. - **Glass**: The profit of float glass enterprises is stable at a low level, production is expected to be stable, and inventory is higher than in previous years. The glass 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with pressure at the 1035 level [12]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC production is expected to remain high, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is expected to increase. The cost provides strong support. The PVC 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with pressure at the 4540 level [13]. 3. Summary by Variety Energy and Chemicals - **Oil**: As of November 21, the number of active drilling rigs in the US reached 419, the highest since October. The US has proposed a 28 - point new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [1]. - **PX**: This week's PX output was 74.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%. The domestic PX average weekly capacity utilization rate was 89.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% [11]. - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2053 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate is 88.75%, an increase of 1.8% [11]. - **Rubber**: As of November 23, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.60% [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As of November 21, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic areas was 667,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,900 tons, an increase of 2.13% [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Fed officials' statements have increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut, boosting the bullish sentiment of silver [1]. - **Iron Ore**: From November 17 to 23, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.9395 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 569,600 tons [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel products this week was 121,407 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.38%. The weekly supply decreased by 1.33% to 196,910 tons [4]. - **Rebar**: On November 24, the domestic steel market prices mainly rose slightly. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3283 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. - **Gold**: The US and Ukraine have completed a 19 - point peace agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be determined [10]. - **PVC**: The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4440 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 20 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 percentage points [13]. - **Glass**: The average price of national float glass is 1094 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The float glass start - up rate is 74.86%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 percentage points [12]. Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: As of November 21, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 million tons [7]. - **Live Pigs**: On November 24, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1% from last Friday [9]. - **Eggs**: On November 24, the price of eggs was 7.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.2% from last Friday [9]. Bonds - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: On November 24, the winning bid rate of the 2025 central Treasury cash management commercial bank time deposit (the eleventh issue) was 1.73%, lower than the previous 1.76% [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly, gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and the price of rebar is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [1][3]. - Coking coal is expected to oscillate, while the LH2601 contract of live pigs is under downward pressure and will adjust weakly [4]. - Palm oil is running weakly after breaking through the support level, and the price of soybean meal's 01 contract will decline and oscillate weakly in the short - term [5]. - The bond market will oscillate slightly more in the medium - term, and silver is bearish in the short - term but bullish in the medium - term [7]. - The 01 contract of methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and the 01 contract of soda ash will run weakly [8][9]. - The L2601 contract of plastic will run weakly in the short - term, and the price of crude oil is weakly running in stages [10][11]. - The asphalt market is weak, and the price of synthetic rubber will oscillate weakly [11][12]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 15,054.65 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75.06 tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 3.2992 million tons, an increase of 29,700 tons; the number of ships at ports is 120, an increase of 4. Shipping is increasing, and the arrival volume is fluctuating. The molten iron output is expected to decline seasonally, but there is short - term support, and the restocking demand has not been released. The short - term price will oscillate strongly [1]. Gold - Multiple Fed officials signaled interest rate cuts, but due to the lack of employment data, the decision to cut rates is still highly uncertain. Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. Rebar - As of the week of November 20, rebar production was 2.0796 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79,600 tons or 3.98%; factory inventory was 1.5332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71,000 tons or 4.43%; social inventory was 4.0002 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 157,300 tons or 3.78%; apparent demand was 2.3079 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 144,200 tons or 6.66%. The demand has recovered, the fundamentals have improved, but the inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. The price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [3]. Coking Coal - The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7%. The daily average output of raw coal is 1.934 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons; the daily average output of clean coal is 758,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. The supply is tight, the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate [4]. Live Pigs - As of November 21, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.6 kg, an increase of 0.07 kg; the weekly slaughter start - up rate is 34.06%, an increase of 0.11%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 164.92 yuan per head, a decrease of 43.13 yuan per head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is - 81.351 yuan per head, a decrease of 17.42 yuan per head; the price of piglets is 210 yuan per head, an increase of 0.95 yuan per head. The market supply is large, and the LH2601 contract is under downward pressure [4]. Palm Oil - From November 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 7.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.45% month - on - month, and the output increased by 10.32% month - on - month. The demand for biodiesel is expected to weaken significantly, and palm oil is running weakly [5]. Soybean Meal - As of November 21, the physical inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises is 7.98 days, a decrease of 0.25 days from the previous period and the same as the same period last year. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the demand is stable, and the price of the 01 contract will decline and oscillate weakly [5]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The intensive issuance of treasury bonds is an important manifestation of the continuous implementation of proactive fiscal policies, which may lead to the early implementation of fiscal easing policies next year. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly more in the medium - term [7]. Silver - The US economic data shows certain resilience, which boosts risk appetite. There are differences in the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December, but the expectation still exists. Silver is bearish in the short - term and bullish in the medium - term [7]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price is stable. The weekly utilization rate of domestic methanol production capacity is 88.75%, an increase of 1.8%. The downstream utilization rate is 74.77%, a weekly increase of 0.42%. The port inventory has decreased. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash nationwide is 1,260 yuan/ton, and the price is relatively stable. The weekly output is 739,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%. The total inventory of manufacturers is 1.7073 million tons, a weekly increase of - 0.4%. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly [9]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,939 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day. The weekly output is 304,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.19%. The production enterprise inventory is 197,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 4.4%. The L2601 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term [10]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, the global economy and demand are poor, and the new peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have attracted market attention. The price of crude oil is weakly running in stages [11]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises is 24.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2%. The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises is 370,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.2%. The market is weak, and it is advisable to sell short at high prices [11]. Synthetic Rubber - The output of butadiene in October is 457,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.49%, and the output from January to October is 4.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.46%. The import in October is 35,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 35.00%. The supply pressure on the raw material side is increasing, and the demand lacks substantial benefits. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [12].

来源：央视新闻 当地时间11月20日，多名美国高级官员证实，美方起草推动的一项旨在结束俄乌冲突的"28点计划"草案 已成形，要点包括俄罗斯与乌克兰和欧洲缔结互不侵犯协议，乌克兰承诺不加入北约等。白宫新闻秘书 卡罗琳·莱维特20日证实，美国总统特朗普支持这项新计划，并表示计划"还在不断修订"，白宫相信冲 突双方应能接受。 当地时间21日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基发表对乌克兰民众公开讲话时称，乌克兰可能面临非常艰难的选 择：要么失去尊严，要么冒着失去关键伙伴的风险。 （原标题：泽连斯基回应美国起草俄乌和谈"28点"计划：要么失去尊严，要么冒着失去关键伙伴的风 险，将提出替代方案） 他表示，必须考虑乌克兰的国家利益，将与欧洲和美国平静地合作。在谈及有关美国方面提出的一项旨 在结束俄乌冲突的"28点"计划时，他表示，会提出替代方案，但"绝不会给敌人理由说是乌克兰不想要 和平"。他强调，乌克兰国内应保持团结一致，"战时国家的议会必须团结运作，战时国家的政府必须高 效运作。" ...