Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. With cost support and high inventory in a tug - of - war, prices are expected to remain volatile, and an upward trend requires substantial demand recovery and accelerated inventory reduction [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances dominate market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals remain unchanged. In the short term, the futures market will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of cost support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Main producers in Xinjiang and Gansu are generally in the red, leading to some voluntary production cuts. High - cost areas in the southwest have further limited production, tightening the supply. Coal prices have stabilized, and the price transmission effect in the photovoltaic industry chain provides significant cost support. However, downstream demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weak, and high social inventory suppresses price increases [3]. - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8605 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.71%. The trading volume is 281,253 lots, with a weekly increase of 4.44%. The open interest is 238,869 lots, with a negligible weekly change [4]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products since April 1st has stimulated short - term export rush demand, potentially supporting polysilicon demand. The comprehensive cost line of leading enterprises is about 42,000 yuan/ton, providing a bottom - line support. However, regulatory interviews with leading enterprises have led to concerns about the collapse of the price - support logic, and there is significant inventory accumulation due to weak demand [3]. - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50,200 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.14% but a weekly decrease of 2.14%. The trading volume is 21,717 lots, with a daily increase of 70.96% but a weekly decrease of 53.04%. The open interest is 46,220 lots, with a weekly decrease of 9.27% [5]. Photovoltaic Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Production**: Data on the weekly production of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang; the weekly production of polysilicon in China and overseas; the weekly production of silicon wafers in China; the monthly production of battery cells in China; and the monthly production of photovoltaic modules in China are presented [8][12][16]. - **Inventory**: Data on the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon, the total weekly inventory of polysilicon in China, the weekly inventory of silicon wafers, the weekly inventory of photovoltaic battery外销 factories, and the weekly finished - product inventory of photovoltaic modules are presented [27][28][29]. - **Profit**: Data on the profit of industrial silicon, the weekly profit of polysilicon, the profit of silicon wafers in China, and the process profit of single - crystal N - type battery cells in China are presented [32][33][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - For polysilicon, in the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, and in the medium to long term, short on rallies should be the main strategy as its fundamentals are weak, mainly focused on inventory reduction, and it is susceptible to macro - sentiment and policy - side impacts [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8790 yuan/ton and closed at 8730 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton (0.46%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 230720, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 14, 2026, was 11140, a change of 12 from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton [1]. - As of January 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.2 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13700 - 14000 yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the PV VAT export tax - rebate policy is expected to increase the short - term demand for polysilicon. However, due to high inventory accumulation, the market focuses on inventory reduction, and demand transmission is blocked [2]. - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly. The silicone industry maintained a staggered - peak emission reduction policy, and the downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed a marginal weakening trend. The subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a weakening tendency [2]. Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. In the case of both supply and demand reduction, combined with the transmission effect of rising coal prices and PV industry chain prices, price support is obvious. Short - term range - based operations are recommended [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 48580 yuan/ton and closing at 48670 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.38% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 47798 (48439 in the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 12703 [3]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was priced at 51.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 30.20 (with a month - on - month change of - 1.30%), silicon wafer inventory was 26.23GW (with a month - on - month change of 13.11%), polysilicon weekly production was 23800.00 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 0.80%), and silicon wafer production was 10.52GW (with a month - on - month change of 3.34%) [4]. Strategy - The recent implementation of the policy to cancel the export tax - rebate for the PV industry may stimulate short - term polysilicon export rush, with an expected boost in demand, but it may come at the cost of overdrafting medium - and long - term demand. After polysilicon enterprises were interviewed last week, the expectation of coordinated price support was dashed. The overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and downstream production capacity is accelerating to clear. In the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, and in the medium to long term, short on rallies is the main strategy. The main contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and short - term range - based operations are recommended [6].

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market experienced a comprehensive recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3968.84 points, the ChiNext Index rising by 49.57%, the CSI 300 increasing by 17.66%, the CSI 500 up by 30.39%, and the STAR 50 gaining 35.92% [1] - The most notable performance was in precious metals, with gold and silver entering a historic bull market, leading all asset classes. London spot gold rose by 64.56% throughout the year, nearing $4600 per ounce, while London spot silver surged by 147.79% [1] Precious Metals and Base Metals Cycle - Historical patterns indicate that after gold and silver, base metals like copper and aluminum may enter a super cycle. The sequence of price increases typically follows: gold, silver, copper, aluminum, oil, gas, and agricultural products [2] - By the end of 2025, gold had increased over 60%, closing around $4320 per ounce, while silver prices saw significant increases, particularly in December, breaking through key price levels [2] - International investment banks are bullish on copper and aluminum for 2026, citing a lack of large mining projects coming online and the decline of older mines. Demand is also expected to rise from sectors like AI infrastructure, electric vehicles, and the photovoltaic industry [2] Investment Products in Base Metals - Investment products related to base metals can be categorized into two main types: those that include stocks or ETFs related to base metals and public mutual funds focused on base metals. Unlike precious metals, these products do not directly invest in physical metals [3] - Base metal index funds can be further divided into those tracking stock indices and those tracking futures indices. Examples include the "Wanjia CSI Industrial Base Metals Theme ETF" and "Guotai CSI Base Metals Theme ETF," which invest in stocks of companies related to gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, and rare metals [4] Performance of Base Metal Funds - Recent performance data for base metal ETFs shows significant gains, with the "Wanjia CSI Industrial Base Metals Theme ETF" up by 98.20%, "Guotai CSI Base Metals Theme ETF" up by 82.96%, and others also showing strong returns [6] - Some bank wealth management products also allocate a portion of their holdings to precious and base metals to enhance returns, although these products carry higher risks compared to pure bond products [8] Practical Investment Tips - Investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance when investing in precious and base metals. For those with a preference for stability, bank wealth management products may be suitable, while those with higher risk tolerance might explore mining stocks and related funds [9] - In the context of base metals, investors should be cautious about chasing high prices and consider the volatility of silver, platinum, and palladium. It is recommended to select products that hold ETFs related to gold and base metals for more stable investment [10]

美畅股份（300861.SZ）1月12日在投资者互动平台表示，公司核心业务为金刚石线的研发、生产和销 售，该产品是光伏硅片切割环节的关键耗材。现阶段公司产品的应用与客户主要集中在光伏产业链。关 于航空航天领域，公司目前暂无直接相关的下游客户。我们也关注着包括航空航天在内的其他领域前沿 技术动态，并将持续聚焦主业，以扎实的业绩回报投资者。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：贵公司的产品，或者贵公司产品的下游衍生品，或者 贵公司的什么技术能应用到航天航空上吗？ （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

格隆汇1月12日丨美畅股份(300861.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司核心业务为金刚石线的研发、生产和销 售，该产品是光伏硅片切割环节的关键耗材。现阶段公司产品的应用与客户主要集中在光伏产业链。关 于航空航天领域，公司目前暂无直接相关的下游客户。我们也关注着包括航空航天在内的其他领域前沿 技术动态，并将持续聚焦主业，以扎实的业绩回报投资者。 ...

格隆汇1月12日丨美畅股份(300861.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司核心业务为金刚石线的研发、生产和销 售，该产品是光伏硅片切割环节的关键耗材。现阶段公司产品的应用与客户主要集中在光伏产业链。关 于航空航天领域，公司目前暂无直接相关的下游客户。我们也关注着包括航空航天在内的其他领域前沿 技术动态，并将持续聚焦主业，以扎实的业绩回报投资者。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index broke through strongly and with heavy volume last week. With ample market capital, a new upward space has opened, and the bullish trend continues. In the short - term, the stock index is expected to maintain an upward pattern. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026. It is recommended that investors still focus on seizing opportunities to build long positions [9] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - **Interest Rate Changes**: DRO01 closed at 1.27% with a 0.32bp increase; DR007 at 1.47% with a - 0.13bp change; GC001 at 1.34% with a 22.50bp increase; GC007 at 1.53% with a 5.00bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.60% with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.35% with a 1.55bp increase; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.65% with a 0.43bp increase; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.88% with a - 0.17bp change; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.18% with a - 1.00bp change [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 286 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday with an operation rate of 1.40%. There were 5288 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, resulting in a single - day net withdrawal of 5002 billion yuan. This week, there are 13236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the central bank's open market, 4823 billion yuan, 3125 billion yuan, and 5288 billion yuan due from Monday to Wednesday respectively. There will also be 11000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases due on Thursday and 600 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits due on Friday [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - **Price and Volume Changes**: The closing prices and changes of major stock index futures are as follows: CSI 300 closed at 4759 with a 0.45% increase; IF current month at 4765 with a 0.6% increase; SSE 50 at 3134 with a 0.39% increase; IH current month at 3133 with a 0.4% increase; CSI 500 at 8057 with a 2.05% increase; IC current month at 8088 with a 2.5% increase; CSI 1000 at 8129 with a 1.98% increase; IM current month at 8160 with a 2.6% increase. In terms of volume, IF volume was 148342 with a 23.9% increase, IF open interest was 299215 with a 3.6% increase; IH volume was 53705 with a 19.8% increase, IH open interest was 92820 with a 1.8% increase; IC volume was 188896 with a 27.8% increase, IC open interest was 318610 with an 8.3% increase; IM volume was 247789 with a 26.4% increase, IM open interest was 393398 with a 5.1% increase [7] - **Market Review and Outlook**: Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index achieved 16 consecutive positive days and reached 4100 points, refreshing a more than 10 - year high. The market turnover exceeded 3.1 trillion yuan. After the holiday, the market trading volume significantly expanded, and sufficient funds boosted the strong rise of stock indexes. The reasons include low inter - bank capital interest rates, continuous inflow of incremental funds such as leveraged funds, and continuous expansion of market trading volume [8][9] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are as follows: IF basis rates are - 9.02% for the current - month contract, 1.10% for the next - month contract, 1.71% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.75% for the next - quarter contract; IH basis rates are 3.08% for the current - month contract, 0.44% for the next - month contract, - 0.08% for the current - quarter contract, and 0.81% for the next - quarter contract; IC basis rates are - 28.55% for the current - month contract, - 0.17% for the next - month contract, 1.26% for the current - quarter contract, and 5.44% for the next - quarter contract; IM basis rates are - 27.85% for the current - month contract, 3.41% for the next - month contract, 5.33% for the current - quarter contract, and 8.61% for the next - quarter contract [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 7, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,980 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.07%, and the open interest increasing by 10,123 lots to 245,000 lots. Polysilicon showed a volatile and weaker trend, with the main contract 2605 closing at 58,300 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 2.13%, and the open interest decreasing by 4,553 lots to 67,800 lots [2]. - The production center of industrial silicon continues to shift northward. Although there is a reduction in production due to environmental protection, it cannot offset the decline in demand. Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, and one can consider short - selling on rebounds [2]. - In January, industry self - discipline and joint production cuts of silicon materials are expected to lead to an unexpected reduction in polysilicon supply, providing strong support. At the same time, due to the exchange's risk control and position limits, the upward premium space is tightened [2]. - Pay attention to the implementation of production cuts by silicon material factories, downstream receiving sentiment, and the inventory dynamics of the industrial chain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, and polysilicon is expected to have an unexpected supply reduction in January [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,900 yuan/ton on January 6 to 8,980 yuan/ton on January 7, a rise of 80 yuan/ton. The spot premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract decreased from 59,365 yuan/ton on January 6 to 58,300 yuan/ton on January 7, a decline of 1,065 yuan/ton. The spot premium changed from - 5,865 yuan/ton to - 4,800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 112 to 10,799, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,175 tons to 51,155 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,340, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 81,000 tons to 120,900 tons [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the weekly inventory of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and DMC [21][24]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, polysilicon processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and aluminum alloy cost - profit [26][28][31]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating of "Increase Holding" for the power equipment industry, indicating a relative market performance increase of 10% or more compared to the benchmark index [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that global energy storage demand is accelerating, with large-scale storage, household storage, and AI-assisted storage all showing significant growth [1]. - The AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) sector is maintaining a favorable outlook, with sustained high demand in North America and a significant increase in domestic demand [1]. - Domestic onshore wind energy is emerging from its cycle, showing steady growth, while both domestic and international offshore wind demand is accelerating [1]. - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium battery materials are improving, leading to enhanced profitability for lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate cathodes, and separators [1]. - New technologies such as solid-state battery validation and mass production are accelerating, with the market share of sodium-ion batteries continuing to rise [1]. Summary by Sections Demand - Global energy storage demand is rapidly expanding, with multiple segments including large storage, household storage, and AI-assisted storage experiencing growth [1]. Market Dynamics - The AIDC sector is expected to maintain a favorable environment, with North American demand continuing to grow and domestic demand entering a new growth phase [1]. - Onshore wind energy in China is showing signs of recovery, while offshore wind demand is increasing both domestically and internationally [1]. Supply and Profitability - The supply-demand balance for lithium battery materials is improving, leading to increased profitability for key components such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate cathodes [1]. Technological Advancements - The report notes advancements in solid-state battery technology and the increasing market share of sodium-ion batteries, indicating a shift towards new energy storage solutions [1].

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower on the 30th but experienced fluctuations, with indices turning positive multiple times during the session [1] - By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined to 3965.12 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% [1][2] Trading Data - The total trading volume in the market reached 2.16 trillion yuan, with over 3400 stocks experiencing declines [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a minor decrease of 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index gained 66.97 points, reflecting a 0.49% increase [2] - The ChiNext Index saw an increase of 20.29 points, or 0.63%, indicating positive momentum in certain sectors [2] Sector Performance - Human robot concept stocks surged in the afternoon, while sectors related to digital currency, AI smartphones, and short drama games showed active performance [3] - Conversely, the photovoltaic industry chain experienced a pullback, and stocks related to the Hainan Free Trade Zone, outbound tax refunds, and commercial aerospace concepts underwent adjustments [3]