期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 工业硅/多晶硅早报 走势评级： 工业硅：偏弱 多晶硅：震荡 李艳婷—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03091846 投资咨询证号：Z0020513 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：liyanting@cindasc.com 徐浩然—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03120971 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：xuhaoran@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 工业硅持续探底，关注西南地区复产情况 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 7 日 报告内容摘要: ◆相关咨询： 商务部：中方决定同意与美方进行接触 ◆基本面： 工业硅： 现货价格方面，华东不通氧 553#硅在 9100-9200 元/吨，较上一 交易日跌 100 元/吨。供给方面：4 月份工业硅产量下探到 30.1 万吨，较 3 月下降 4.1 万吨，新疆地区减产 5 万吨左右，而西南地区丰水期即将来临， 四川地区复产至 1w ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company is expected to face profit pressure in 2024, with a projected net profit of 0.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 65% year-on-year [8] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a slight recovery in losses, with a net profit of -0.03 billion yuan, indicating a 110% decrease quarter-on-quarter but an 88% increase year-on-year [8] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 2.67 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 2.175 billion yuan - 2024: 2.673 billion yuan - 2025: 2.828 billion yuan - 2026: 3.250 billion yuan - 2027: 3.736 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 74.39% for 2023, 22.91% for 2024, 5.81% for 2025, 14.92% for 2026, and 14.93% for 2027 [8][9] - The net profit forecast for the company is as follows: - 2024: 0.4229 billion yuan - 2025: 0.3290 billion yuan - 2026: 0.5212 billion yuan - 2027: 0.6842 billion yuan - Year-on-year changes in net profit are projected at 139.99% for 2023, -64.90% for 2024, -22.19% for 2025, 58.41% for 2026, and 31.27% for 2027 [8][9] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 19.36 yuan, with a market capitalization of 2.12391 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 47.97 for 2024, 61.65 for 2025, 38.92 for 2026, and 29.65 for 2027 [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Accumulate" due to the downward trend in photovoltaic grid-connected electricity prices, which is expected to slow down profit growth [4]. Core Views - The photovoltaic manufacturing sector's profitability has stabilized, while the photovoltaic module capacity continues to expand [1]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 6.039 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.70% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.225 billion yuan, down 22.38% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 1.300 billion yuan, down 7.80% year-on-year, and a net profit of 289 million yuan, down 17.62% year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's photovoltaic operating business revenue for 2024 is 4.333 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.73% year-on-year, influenced by a decline in grid-connected electricity prices and utilization hours [2]. - The company's total installed photovoltaic capacity reached 6.08 GW by the end of 2024, an increase of 30.00% year-on-year, while the utilization hours decreased by 7.26% to 1239 hours [2]. Manufacturing Sector Performance - The photovoltaic manufacturing sector experienced a significant decline in production and sales volume, with solar product sales volume and production down 46.13% and 64.33% respectively [3]. - The revenue from the photovoltaic manufacturing sector for 2024 is reported at 1.681 billion yuan, a decrease of 66.18% year-on-year, while the cost of raw materials decreased by 66.43% [3]. Future Growth Potential - The company has a robust pipeline of photovoltaic projects, with approximately 12.114 GW of projects in hand, including operational, under construction, and planned projects [3]. - The report projects a net profit of 1.334 billion yuan for 2025, with an expected EPS of 0.34 yuan [4]. Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at 7.150 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.40% growth from 2024 [5]. - The projected net profit for 2026 is 1.435 billion yuan, with an EPS of 0.37 yuan [5].

2025 年 5 月 5 日 公司研究 内蒙基地吨现金成本已降至 2.7 万元以内，组件海外业务实现跨越式增长 ——通威股份（600438.SH）2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营业收入 919.94 亿 元，同比-33.87%，实现归母净利润-70.39 亿元，同比-151.86%；2025Q1 实现 营业收入 159.33 亿元，同比-18.58%，实现归母净利润-25.93 亿元，环比减亏。 硅料、电池市占率稳居行业第一，组件海外业务实现跨越式增长。2024 年公司 维持了硅料/电池环节的领先优势并在组件环节实现突破，高纯晶硅销量同比增 长 20.76%至 46.76 万吨，全年产销量约占全国 30%，市占率连续多年位居行业 第一；太阳能电池销量同比增长 8.70%至 87.68GW（含自用），全球市占率约 14%，连续八年蝉联全球电池出货量榜首；组件销量同比增长 46.93%至 45.71GW，海外销量同比增长 98.76%，斩获沙特、波兰等多国 GW 级项目订单。 2025Q1 在产业链价格持续下跌背景下公司盈利能 ...

2025 年 5 月 5 日 公司研究 内蒙基地吨现金成本已降至 2.7 万元以内，组件海外业务实现跨越式增长 ——通威股份（600438.SH）2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营业收入 919.94 亿 元，同比-33.87%，实现归母净利润-70.39 亿元，同比-151.86%；2025Q1 实现 营业收入 159.33 亿元，同比-18.58%，实现归母净利润-25.93 亿元，环比减亏。 硅料、电池市占率稳居行业第一，组件海外业务实现跨越式增长。2024 年公司 维持了硅料/电池环节的领先优势并在组件环节实现突破，高纯晶硅销量同比增 长 20.76%至 46.76 万吨，全年产销量约占全国 30%，市占率连续多年位居行业 第一；太阳能电池销量同比增长 8.70%至 87.68GW（含自用），全球市占率约 14%，连续八年蝉联全球电池出货量榜首；组件销量同比增长 46.93%至 45.71GW，海外销量同比增长 98.76%，斩获沙特、波兰等多国 GW 级项目订单。 2025Q1 在产业链价格持续下跌背景下公司盈利能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decrease in revenue and various financial metrics for the first quarter, primarily due to adverse market conditions in the photovoltaic sector, while also outlining a profit distribution plan for 2024. Financial Performance - The company’s operating income decreased by 36.80% compared to the same period last year, attributed to the impact of the photovoltaic market despite a slight increase in sales prices [5][6]. - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 70.42% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced revenue leading to lower cash receipts [10]. - The company’s short-term borrowings increased by 34.67%, driven by increased bank loans and reclassification of discounted letters of credit [5]. - The company reported a 76.28% decrease in employee compensation payable, due to the payment of bonuses accrued from the previous period [5]. Profit Distribution Plan - The company proposed a cash dividend of RMB 5 per 10 shares (including tax) for the 2024 fiscal year, totaling RMB 96,531,256.50, based on a share base of 193,062,513 shares after excluding repurchased shares [16][29]. - The profit distribution plan is subject to approval at the 2024 annual general meeting [21]. Business Operations - The company continues to focus on the photovoltaic glass sector, with no significant changes in its main business operations or products during the reporting period [31]. - The company has maintained a strong position in the glass deep processing industry, being a leader in photovoltaic coating glass and ultra-thin photovoltaic glass products [31]. Other Financial Metrics - The company’s financial expenses increased by 55.35% year-on-year, primarily due to higher interest expenses from increased bank loans [7]. - The company’s investment income decreased by 103.65% year-on-year, attributed to changes in the fair value of financial assets and reduced bank wealth management income [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][11]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 3.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 401 million yuan, down 23% year-on-year but up 710% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding expectations [2]. - The increase in film prices has led to a recovery in profitability, showcasing the company's leading position in the industry despite challenges. The company shipped 630 million square meters of photovoltaic film in Q1, a 9% year-on-year decline, primarily due to weaker component production. However, price increases in December 2024 and March 2025 have improved the gross margin to 13.10%, a 1.48 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company's overseas production capacity is set to expand significantly, with the second phase in Thailand expected to add 250 million square meters, bringing total overseas capacity to 600 million square meters. This expansion is anticipated to enhance profitability and solidify the company's leading position as competitors face losses [3]. - The electronic materials business is experiencing rapid growth, with the introduction of photosensitive dry film products to major global electronic circuit companies. The recovery and transformation of the electronic circuit industry are expected to drive significant growth in this segment [4]. - The company has prudently accounted for credit impairment provisions, which positively impacted net profit by 108 million yuan in Q1 due to a combination of reversals and provisions [4]. Financial Projections - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1.74 billion, 2.02 billion, and 2.36 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 16, and 13 times for these years, reflecting a strong competitive position and growth potential in the electronic materials sector [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Changling Hydraulic Co., Ltd. reported a decline in net profit and significant reduction in cash flow from operating activities for the year 2024, despite an increase in operating revenue driven by business expansion through acquisitions [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Operating revenue for 2024 reached 883,496,556.61 yuan, a 9.57% increase from 806,314,323.29 yuan in the previous year, primarily due to the acquisition of Jiangyin Shangchi [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 94,733,400.62 yuan, down 6.84% from 101,691,818.34 yuan, influenced by challenges in the photovoltaic sector and credit losses from a major customer [3]. - Deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit was 89,333,123.82 yuan, reflecting a 6.61% decrease, indicating pressure on core business profitability [4]. - Basic earnings per share decreased to 0.66 yuan from 0.73 yuan, a decline of 9.59%, consistent with the drop in net profit [5]. - The diluted earnings per share, excluding non-recurring items, fell to 0.62 yuan from 0.69 yuan, a decrease of 10.14% [6]. Expenses and Cost Management - Sales expenses increased by 16.16% to 18,676,382.21 yuan, attributed to higher costs following the acquisition of Jiangyin Shangchi [7]. - Management expenses decreased by 10.71% to 40,068,834.02 yuan, reflecting improved cost control after the previous year's acquisition-related costs [7]. - Financial income, reported as negative 11,866,666.95 yuan, increased due to reduced interest income from bank investment products [7]. - R&D expenses rose by 13.11% to 38,948,751.30 yuan, indicating a commitment to innovation and product development [7]. Cash Flow Analysis - Net cash flow from operating activities was 77,491,615.59 yuan, a significant decrease of 58.22% from 185,453,824.79 yuan, primarily due to increased cash payments for employee compensation [9]. - Cash flow from investing activities showed a net outflow of 405,406,470.52 yuan, a substantial increase from the previous year's outflow of 9,013,697.51 yuan, mainly due to acquisition payments [9]. - Cash flow from financing activities also reflected a net outflow of 120,145,290.00 yuan, worsening from a previous outflow of 51,846,318.79 yuan, driven by increased dividend payments [9]. R&D and Human Resources - The company employed 137 R&D personnel, accounting for 15.68% of total staff, with a stable and reasonable educational and age structure [8]. Summary - Despite an increase in operating revenue, Jiangsu Changling Hydraulic faces challenges with declining net profit and cash flow, necessitating ongoing focus on market expansion, cost control, and risk management to enhance profitability and shareholder returns [11].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit, primarily due to lower prices of quartz crucibles and significant impairment losses [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 17.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.5 billion yuan, down 45% year-on-year - The gross margin was 33%, a decrease of 8 percentage points year-on-year - The net profit margin was 15%, down 14 percentage points year-on-year [1] Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 28% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -450 million yuan, indicating a loss due to significant impairment losses totaling approximately 1 billion yuan - The gross margin for Q4 was 23%, down 18 percentage points year-on-year and 9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Business Segments - Equipment and Services: Revenue was 13.4 billion yuan, up 4.3% year-on-year, with 8,308 units of crystal growth furnaces sold, a 22% increase; gross margin was 36.36%, down 2.46 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Materials: Revenue was 3.3 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year; gross margin was 28.71%, down 27.44 percentage points year-on-year, with significant pressure on crucible business [2] Inventory and Impairment - As of the end of 2024, the company's inventory was 10.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 30% year-on-year - The company made provisions for bad debts and inventory impairment totaling 2.5 billion yuan and 3.41 billion yuan, respectively, along with 3.49 billion yuan for quartz crucible raw materials [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a reduction in impairments in 2025-2026 as the photovoltaic industry stabilizes and the company enhances lean manufacturing management - New products and technologies in the battery and component sectors are expected to see rapid growth in the next industry cycle [3][4] Semiconductor Business - The company is expanding its semiconductor business, focusing on large silicon wafer equipment, silicon carbide substrates, and advanced packaging equipment - As of the end of 2024, the company had over 3.3 billion yuan in orders for semiconductor equipment, indicating slight growth year-on-year [4] Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 16.5 billion yuan, 15.5 billion yuan, and 14.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 2.354 billion yuan, 2.427 billion yuan, and 2.522 billion yuan, respectively [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the convertible bond market, particularly focusing on the performance and outlook of various sectors including cyclical industries, photovoltaic (solar) industry, and banking sector convertible bonds [2][3][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Divergence on Convertible Bonds**: The current market divergence regarding convertible bond investments stems from two main factors: reduced trading volume in equity indices and a lack of new catalysts for previously hot sectors like Deepseek and robotics. Additionally, the upcoming quarterly earnings reports historically pressure small-cap convertible bonds [2]. - **Cyclical Sector Performance**: The cyclical sectors, especially in chemicals, exhibit alpha characteristics in the convertible bond market. Despite slow recovery in real estate-related industries, the pricing logic in chemicals is becoming more pronounced. The livestock farming sector plays a crucial role in hedging debt repayment risks [3][4]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Opportunities**: The photovoltaic sector is highlighted as having significant opportunities in 2025, with expectations that component price adjustments will provide favorable conditions for related convertible bonds. The sector's large scale and ease of position accumulation are noted as advantages for achieving good returns [5][8]. - **Convertible Bond ETF Fund Flows**: Recent outflows from convertible bond ETFs are attributed to institutional profit-taking. The convertible bond index has shown strong performance, with returns of 3-4% for the index and 4-5% for small-cap indices in Q1 2025, leading to increased valuation safety margins [6]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The public market is experiencing a contraction, but the expiration of many large-cap convertible bonds and a structural bull market in equities may lead to the emergence of new products to supplement supply. The market may evolve into a dual approach with public funds and targeted financing types [7]. - **Investment Opportunities in Banking Convertible Bonds**: Banking convertible bonds have shown strong performance, with investment opportunities concentrated around significant price corrections. The upcoming earnings disclosure period may favor dividend stocks, providing good investment opportunities [9][10]. - **Trends in Directed Convertible Bonds**: Directed convertible bonds are rapidly developing, primarily used for project financing and liquidity supplementation. They can achieve financing through high conversion prices but cannot be adjusted downwards, reflecting regulatory measures to prevent conflicts of interest [11]. Other Important Insights - **Importance of Downward Adjustment Clauses**: Downward adjustment clauses in convertible bonds are crucial for investors, as they help mitigate repayment pressures in case of short-term issues. This feature contributes to the lower credit risk in the public market [12]. - **Differences Between Public and Private Convertible Bonds**: Public convertible bonds have standardized terms and are traded on exchanges, while private convertible bonds offer more customization but have lower liquidity and longer lock-up periods [13][14]. - **Unique Advantages of Private Convertible Bonds**: Private convertible bonds provide a stable asset class with minimal net value fluctuations, appealing to institutions sensitive to net asset value changes. Despite their liquidity issues, they can offer certain advantages for conservative investment strategies [16].