Market Reaction - Following Trump's announcement, the US experienced a significant decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, with the dollar index dropping by 0.8% and the euro strengthening by 0.7%[2] - European stock indices, particularly France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX, fell by 1.9% and 1.5% respectively, while the S&P 500 index in the US decreased by 0.7%[2] - The 10-year Eurozone bond yield increased by 1.4 basis points, while the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 2.3 basis points, indicating market volatility[2] Tariff Implications - Trump's proposed 50% tariff on the EU could lead to significant economic repercussions for both the US and EU, as they are each other's largest trading partners[4] - In 2024, the US accounted for 14% of EU imports and 21% of EU exports, while the EU represented 18% of US imports and 19% of US exports[4] - If implemented, the US could see a reduction of over 50% in imports from the EU, severely impacting industries such as pharmaceuticals, machinery, and automobiles[4] Economic Context - The US faces increasing pressure from rising Treasury yields, which could limit the effectiveness of its tariff policies and lead to greater asset sell-off[5] - The US Treasury yields for 10-year and 30-year bonds have recently surpassed 4.5% and 5.0% respectively, reflecting concerns over fiscal sustainability[5][6] - The EU has more room for fiscal expansion compared to the US, which may lead to a more favorable economic outlook for Europe in the face of potential tariffs[5] Political Dynamics - Trump's tariff threats may be more of a strategic maneuver in trade negotiations with the EU, especially given the slow progress in recent talks[3] - The political landscape in the US may limit Trump's ability to implement the proposed tariffs, as domestic pressures could shift focus away from international trade issues[7] - The likelihood of the 50% tariff being enacted is low, with expectations that the final tariff level will not exceed 20%[8]

白雪指出，总体来看，市场对美债的承接能力弱化，与美联储缩表减持美债、美国国内共同基金降低美 债配置，以及海外投资者持续减持美债都有一定关系。短期诱因更多可能与上周美国主权信用评级遭遇 调降、特朗普税改法案在众议院预算委员会通过，极大加剧了市场对美国长期财政赤字扩张与债务压力 问题的担忧有关。 中诚信国际主权资深分析师王家璐告诉新京报贝壳财经记者，2025年美国财政融资需求维持在高位。高 存量美国国债和高预期供给已对市场形成前瞻性冲击，叠加投资者对美国中长期财政可持续性的担忧， 成为推动美债收益率上行的重要基础性因素。 对于美日两国长期限国债走弱，也有部分市场人士指出，当前美日央行维持相对偏紧的货币政策，两国 央行均在卖出国债，加剧了供需矛盾。同时目前美日两国通胀压力维持在高位，均高于美日央行目前的 合意区间。通胀压力导致两国央行均收紧其货币政策，持续在公开市场卖出国债。缺少央行购债的需求 支撑，加大了两国债市的脆弱性。 近日全球长期限债券利率普遍上行。截至当地时间5月21日，30年期美国国债收益率突破5%，触及2008 年以来的高点；30年期日债收益率向上触及2.98%，为2000年以来最高水平，4月以来上涨 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.co ...

·东海期货：美元信用下行给黄金提供长周期支撑 ·五矿期货：黄金受到美元信用弱化所带来的利好因素提振 ·申银万国期货：黄金步入整理长期驱动仍然明确 ·澳洲联邦银行：金价料将在第四季度逐步升至每盎司3750美元 ·五矿期货表示，不论是从特朗普政府所推进的财政政策还是美债拍卖结果来看，黄金价格均受到美元 信用弱化所带来的利好因素提振。美国总统特朗普表示已非常接近敲定最终版本的税收法案，对于国会 的审议流程表示乐观。今日凌晨所进行的美国20年期国债拍卖投标倍数为2.46，低于前值的2.63。得标 利率为5.047%，大幅高于前值的4.81%。美债拍卖结果公布后美国国债收益率全线上升，但与此同时黄 金价格表现强势，这集中体现了美国财政赤字持续扩张的预期下，市场对于供给量在未来无序扩大的美 债配置意愿弱化，而黄金正是其最佳的替代资产。美国财政赤字水平在特朗普任期内将持续扩张，这对 于黄金中期价格走势形成利多因素，策略上建议逢低做多，沪金主力合约参考运行区间756-809元／ 克。 ·申银万国期货表示，金银继续反弹，美元表现疲弱。有关穆迪下调美国主权评级以及特朗普减税法案 推出等事件下，对美国债务问题和经济压力的担忧持续发 ...

北京时间5月22日，美股三大指数均创一个月来最大跌幅，标普500指数跌1.61%，纳指1.41%，道指跌1.91%，VIX恐慌指数狂飙 15.42%。 此外，美国中长期国债和美元亦呈下跌态势，美国10年期国债收益率突破4.5%，升至4.604%，30年期国债收益率突破5%，升至 5.096%。 美国资产再次出现"股汇债三杀"的局面。 这是5月10日在美国洛杉矶港拍摄的货船。新华社发 "卖出美国"再现 一段时间以来，美国国债市场持续波动。 据国内多家媒体报道，5月22日凌晨，美国财政部20年期国债标售数据出炉，本次发行的最高中标利率达到5.047%，较预发行利率 5.035%高出约1.2个基点，也是近6个月来最大尾部利差，投标倍数也从近六个月平均水平2.57下降至2.46。 相关数据公布后，美债收益率飙升，对应美债价格下跌。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪在接受风口财经记者采访时表示，美债收益率飙升，直接触发因素是当日美国20年期国债拍卖表现 创五年最差，加之与前一日日本20年期国债拍卖"崩盘"，引发市场情绪共振。21日美债拍卖结果反映出市场对美国国债的需求疲弱。 简单来说，愿意"接盘"美债的人变少了。 在上 ...

一、行情回顾 沪指全天窄幅震荡，创业板指走势较强，北证50再创历史新高。黄金股集体大涨，莱绅通灵涨停，晓程科技涨超10%。固态电池概念爆发，金龙羽、国轩高 科、领湃科技等多股封板。医药股继续活跃，三生国健、舒泰神、海辰药业等涨停。下跌方面，军工板块调整，成飞集成跌停。指数黄白二线分化，个股跌 多涨少，沪深京三市约3600股飘绿，今日成交1.21万亿。 二、当日热点 1.黄金 黄金板块今日大涨，莱绅通灵、西部黄金涨停，晓程科技、紫金矿业大涨。 今日现货黄金上破3300美元/盎司大关，为5月9日以来首次。 另外，据智通财经报道，国内金饰方面，5月21日，周生生足金报价1007元/克，相比于昨日上涨25元/克；老庙黄金足金饰品报价为1004元/克，一夜涨近30 元/克；周大福金饰报价为1008元/克，较前一日每克上涨26元。 | 股票名称 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = | 涨停时间 = | 换手率 = | 流通市值 = | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 菜细通灵 | 2天2板 | 9.78 | +10.01% | 11:29:47 ...

近期，金价大幅震荡，黄金投资热度大幅降温。 券商中国记者翻阅近期券商研报及采访机构发现，黄金仍是各机构当前最为关注的资产之一。不少机构解读 称，短期金价承压受多重因素影响，博弈难度加大，但中长期来看，黄金仍为高性价比的配置资产。更有较为 乐观的机构称，黄金价格有望在阶段性回调后维持长期上涨趋势。 不过，也有一些机构认为，黄金中长期上涨的趋势或许还在，但短期上涨的动能被削弱，提醒投资者避免高倍 杠杆操作。 券商中国记者注意到，在社交平台上，不少投资者在800元/克以上的高位买入，随着近期金价的大幅波动，不 少投资者晒出了自己在高位投资黄金的收益，直呼"天塌了""跌麻了"。不过，也有一些投资者称，将长期投 资，或是"购入成本较低，心里不慌"。 金价坐上"过山车" 近期，金价堪称坐上"过山车"。5月7日以来，伦敦现货黄金价格从约3430美元/盎司高点连续下挫，其中5月14 日单日暴跌约72美元/盎司，单日跌幅2.23%。截至目前，伦敦现货黄金价格在3200美元/盎司附近波动。 值得注意的是，随着近期电商618活动的开启，不少消费者也瞄准金条及黄金饰品，利用大促优惠购置。 沪金期货也持续走弱，5月17日约在750元/ ...

许多人以为中美贸易战已经结束，但实际上这只是一个误解。5月12日，中美双方互相降低关税，虽然似 乎代表着贸易战谈判的突破，但这只是本轮贸易战的第一步，未来特朗普很可能会继续反复施压。 回顾2018年的贸易战，特朗普便已反复了三次，直到那时贸易战才接近尾声。2019年1月，在中美签署了 第一阶段贸易协议时，市场一度乐观，认为贸易战即将结束。然而，仅仅四个月后，特朗普便再次加征了 关税。 为何特朗普会反复加码？他的背后逻辑是如何支撑的？为什么这次谈判仅一个月就迎来破冰，而上次则花 费了近十个月？以下通过数据解读其根本原因。 普的减税政策下，富人群体得到了相当的税收优惠，导致财政收入每年减少约2000亿美元。这使得赤字与 美债利息之间形成了恶性循环，财政赤字的增加直接推动了美债发行量的增加，进而带动美债利息上升。 如今，美国的美债总额已经从20万亿美元增加至36万亿美元，利息也从3000亿美元飙升至近9000亿美元， 远超特朗普1.0时期的水平。 与此相比，2020年疫情期间，美联储通过降息来应对经济衰退，尽管美债总额急剧增加，但由于低利率， 利息却几乎保持不变。特朗普面临的财政困境愈发严重，而美联储的加息政策让债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has shown a significant decline after a brief rebound, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected inflation data and underlying concerns about the US macroeconomic framework [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The US core CPI increased by only 0.2% month-on-month, providing an opportunity for dollar bears to re-enter the market [3]. - There are growing doubts among traders regarding the resilience of the US economy, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year remaining unchanged despite the inflation data [3]. - The 10-year swap spread for the dollar remains elevated, exceeding 50 basis points, indicating market concerns about US Treasury market pressures and fiscal sustainability [3]. Technical Analysis - The dollar index is in a clear downtrend, currently trading around 100.90, with a significant drop from the 110 level [5]. - The MACD indicator has been below the zero line for an extended period, suggesting a weak overall trend despite recent bullish signals [5]. - The Bollinger Bands indicate a wide trading range, with the upper band at 101.92 and the lower band at 98.02, while the price is constrained by the 99.97 midline [5]. Market Sentiment Observation - Market sentiment is characterized by skepticism, with traders increasingly losing confidence in the dollar [7]. - The short-lived rebound in the dollar reflects a cautious attitude among traders, who are quick to capitalize on any upward movement to short the currency [7]. - Overall sentiment remains pessimistic but has not reached extreme panic levels, with short positions on the dollar being the predominant strategy [7]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the dollar index is expected to oscillate within the 100.14 - 101.80 range, with potential support if US economic data exceeds expectations [8]. - A successful breakout above the 101.17 resistance level could lead to a rally towards 102.22 [8]. - Long-term structural pressures on the dollar are significant, with the trend of de-dollarization potentially impacting reserve composition and cross-border settlements [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to substantial progress in US-China trade talks, leading to a decrease in gold's safe-haven premium [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of May 12, the international spot gold price fell below $3,300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3,208 per ounce [2]. - The Shanghai gold futures main contract closed down 2% at 772 yuan per gram, hitting a near one-month low of 767 yuan per gram during trading [3]. - Gold prices have seen a significant drop, with international gold prices falling below $3,500, $3,400, and $3,300 within two weeks, prompting profit-taking by long traders [4]. Group 2: Gold ETF Trends - The total scale of seven gold ETFs targeting SGE gold 9999 reached approximately 1,522 billion yuan by the end of April, but decreased to 1,450 billion yuan due to falling gold prices [3][4]. - In April, gold ETFs experienced a rapid inflow of funds, with over 10 billion yuan in inflows for four consecutive weeks, totaling 498 billion yuan for the month [4]. - As of May 12, the total scale of these gold ETFs rebounded to 1,490 billion yuan, indicating some funds are entering the market to buy on dips [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market is characterized by high volatility and divergence, with short-term price pressures expected [6]. - The global economic landscape, including trade tensions and inflation expectations, continues to influence gold prices, with a potential for further price corrections [6][8]. - Central banks globally continue to support gold demand, with a net purchase of 244 tons in the first quarter of 2025 [7].