Core Views - The report indicates that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend remains a slow bull market for A-shares, supported by moderate trading volume and a healthy overall market trend [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-performing sectors while avoiding stocks with questionable performance or negative expectations [3][4] Market Overview - On Thursday, the three major indices opened with fluctuations and subsequently fell, but the banking sector provided support, leading to a rebound in the Shanghai Composite Index, which reached a new annual high of 3639.67 points [2][8] - The market showed divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext did not follow suit, indicating internal market discrepancies that need further digestion [2][8] Trading Volume and Trends - Recent trading volumes have been increasing, with daily volumes reaching 1.5 trillion yuan on Monday, 1.6 trillion yuan on Tuesday, 1.7 trillion yuan on Wednesday, and over 1.8 trillion yuan on Thursday [3][9] - The overall market trend remains positive, with a healthy upward trajectory and orderly rotation among sectors, which is beneficial for the formation of a slow bull market [3][9] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector has shown significant growth, with a 10.10% increase in 2023, driven by national policy support and rising global demand for AI and high-performance computing [6] - Consumer stocks, particularly in beauty care, agriculture, and dairy, have become active, with domestic consumption expected to be a key driver of economic recovery in 2025 [7] - Rare earth permanent magnet stocks surged, supported by China's dominant position in global rare earth production and recent price increases announced by major producers [7] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "slow bull" market pattern for A-shares, driven by favorable tariff negotiations, continuous policy support, and improved liquidity conditions [3][9] - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach, focusing on sectors with clear performance potential such as semiconductor, AI, and healthcare, while being cautious of stocks that have seen excessive prior gains [3][9]

Export Performance - In July, China's export year-on-year growth rate recorded 7.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, but the month-on-month growth rate is below the median of the past five years[3] - The rebound in export growth is primarily due to a lower base from the same period last year, while the month-on-month growth rate remains below the five-year median[6] - Exports to the US have decreased, but support from European recovery and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa has bolstered exports[7] Import Performance - China's import year-on-year growth rate in July exceeded expectations at 4.1%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month, with month-on-month growth significantly above the five-year average[3] - The increase in imports is driven by continuous domestic production expansion and a notable drop in commodity prices from June, stimulating higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials[6] - Specific imports such as copper saw significant increases, with copper ore rising by 33.1% and unwrought copper by 11.3%[16] Economic Outlook - Despite a downward trend in export centrality, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable, supported by European fiscal expansion and potential unexpected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4] - Risks include potential underperformance in domestic economic recovery, unexpected declines in demand from developed countries, and uncertainties in import-export policies[23]

Group 1 - Swiss politicians are urging FIFA President Gianni Infantino to leverage his relationship with President Trump to address the newly imposed 39% tariffs on Swiss goods by the U.S. [1][3] - The Swiss Federal President and Vice President recently visited Washington in an attempt to prevent the tariffs from taking effect but were unsuccessful, leading to public dissatisfaction and calls for more creative negotiation strategies [1][4] - Swiss Federal Council member Roland Bichsel and former diplomat Thomas Boller believe Infantino's long-standing friendship with Trump could provide Switzerland with crucial access to the U.S. administration [3] Group 2 - The new tariffs, announced by Trump on July 31, will affect 69 trading partners and are set to begin seven days after the executive order is issued, with the 39% rate being the highest for Switzerland [4] - The Swiss economy, which is heavily export-oriented, is at risk of significant damage due to these tariffs, potentially threatening thousands of jobs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in China's export and import growth rates in July, highlighting the factors contributing to these changes and the outlook for the second half of the year [2][3][17]. Export Growth - In July, China's export growth rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, although the month-on-month growth was below the median of the past five years [2][3]. - The rebound in exports is primarily attributed to a lower base from the previous year, as well as economic recovery in Europe and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa [3][8]. - Exports to most regions increased, with notable growth to Africa (42.5%) and Latin America (7.7%), while exports to the U.S. decreased by 21.6% [8]. Import Growth - China's import growth rate in July was 4.1%, a significant increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month growth was also notably higher than the five-year average [11]. - The increase in imports is driven by ongoing domestic production expansion and a significant drop in commodity prices compared to June, leading to higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials, particularly crude oil and copper [11][14]. - Imports from resource countries saw a notable increase of over 10%, with copper imports rising significantly [11][14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus in July was $98.24 billion, which has narrowed compared to the previous month [17]. - Despite a downward trend in export growth, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable due to various supportive factors, including European fiscal expansion and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17].

特朗普：对等关税将在8月7日晚午夜生效。 https://t.co/00WhsAeuK9外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):根据特朗普最新的行政令，新关税要到8月7日才会生效（新税率适用于此后进入消费或从仓库提取以供消费的货物），而不是之前的8月1日，再次留下关税谈判的时间窗口。白宫官员也表示，希望在新的关税实施日期8月7日之前，与各国达成更多协议。 https://t.co/UAGTqkmETQ ...

8月6日，受美国债拍卖疲软及美联储持续释放鸽派言论影响，美元指数持续走弱，支撑金价走强， COMEX黄金期货价格盘中一度跌至3411美元后拉升，尾盘小幅回落，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌 0.08%报3431.8美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.17%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨 1.66%。 光大期货分析认为，美联储理事库克在波士顿联储组织的讨论会上称，非农数据调整在某种程度上是转 折点的典型表现。这一表态加剧了市场对美联储可能调整货币政策的预期。此外，特朗普在周二讲话表 示，将在本周决定由谁来接替即将卸任的美联储理事Kugler，并利用这个空缺出来的职位来挑选未来的 美联储主席。市场鸽派预期加深，金价短期或延续易涨难跌格局。关注本周关税谈判进展，若TACO预 期未落地，避险情绪仍可能进一步助推金价。 第三位联储主席发布鸽派言论，近日，明尼阿波利斯联储主席、2026年FOMC票委卡什卡利表示，美国 经济的放缓可能使短期内降息成为合适之举，他仍预计今年年底前将有两次降息。 当地时间周三，受买方需求疲弱，尤其是美国以外的买家需求下降，美国财政部拍卖420亿美元10年期 国债疲软 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is stabilizing as expectations of "anti-involution" policies diminish, with the 10-year government bond yield around 1.71% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since July, the bond market has experienced significant fluctuations, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising from 1.64% and 1.85% to peaks of 1.75% and 2.00%, respectively, reflecting increases of 11 basis points and 15 basis points [2] - The recent "anti-involution" reform expectations have positively impacted stock and commodity performance, causing disturbances in the bond market [2] - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment may present an opportunity for entry, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing in the second half of the year [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The PMI and bill market data indicate weak demand, with industrial growth expected to slow to around 6.3% in July due to various factors, including adverse weather conditions and production control measures [3] - The cooling of commodity prices is also seen as beneficial for the bond market, as previously over-inflated prices are undergoing corrections [3] Group 3: Liquidity Factors - August is anticipated to see a decline in funding rates, with historical trends suggesting stability in rates like R001 and R007 [4] - There is optimism among industry insiders that institutional funds will likely flow back into the bond market in August, following a period of redemption in July [4] - The yields on long-term bonds have risen to around 2.0%, indicating potential for further downward movement in yields driven by insurance capital allocation [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions are advised to maintain focus on the bond market, emphasizing the importance of securing certain yield values amid a narrow trading range [6] - Strategies include timing trades based on seasonal factors and key events, with a focus on the period from August to October for potential market disturbances [6] - The 10-year government bond is highlighted as a high-value trading option, with potential for significant returns despite limited room for rate cuts [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Discussion: Outlook for Stock Index Quotes [1] - Report Date: August 3, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Liu Yihan from Chuangyuan Research [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - A-share market is bullish in the medium to long term, and the stock index will fluctuate around 3600 points in the short term, expected to build a platform at this level, and then choose to attack the high point of 3674 points in November last year after a period of shock digestion. The lower limit of the market adjustment is expected to be around 3500 points, and if the adjustment is shallow, it may be around the gap of 3536 points on July 18 [25]. - The strategy is to continue to focus on a balanced allocation of blue - chips and technology growth stocks, with a balanced allocation of SSE 50 and CSI 1000. Technology remains the main line for medium - to long - term allocation [25]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Most global markets experienced significant pullbacks this week, including the A - share market [9]. - In the past 5 trading days, all major A - share indices declined, with the decline of the Hang Seng Index being - 3.47%, and the declines of other indices such as the Wind All - A, SSE Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index ranging from - 0.74% to - 1.75% [5]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries in the past 5 trading days, the pharmaceutical and biological industry had a decline of - 0.54%, while the communication and media industries had a rise of 3% [7]. Sino - US Trade Negotiations - The Sino - US tariff negotiation period was extended by 90 days. China did not promise to invest in the US or purchase commodities, and the two sides stood on an equal footing [10][11]. - After the negotiation in Stockholm on July 29, the two sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures. The US aims to confirm the implementation of the agreement reached in London and accelerate the supply of rare - earth magnets from China to US companies [13]. - The US uses its consumer market as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations. The global market faces a problem of insufficient total demand, and the proportion of US residents' salary income has decreased while the importance of financial assets has increased. If the US capital market has problems, it will affect US consumption and thus tariff negotiations [14]. Fed Interest - Rate Meeting - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.50% on July 30, but Fed Chairman Powell made a hawkish statement. There is still a high probability of a rate cut in September [16][20]. - The reasons for a possible rate cut are: the US demand - side data has shown a slowdown in economic data, and the financial market will force the Fed to cut rates, such as the need for liquidity supplementation due to the decline of the TGA account and the increase in overnight financing rates caused by the significant decrease in the balance of the overnight reverse - repurchase market [20]. Politburo Meeting - The Politburo meeting in July indicates that subsequent pro - growth policies will continue to be promoted and implemented [26]. - The statement in the Politburo meeting about "enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidating the stable and improving momentum of the capital market" is conducive to the recovery of A - share risk appetite [26]. A - Share Market Analysis - The A - share market is affected by multiple factors. During the mid - year report disclosure period, the economy has structural problems, and the recovery is stable but without significant improvement. The external environment is uncertain, and domestic monetary policy is in a wait - and - see state [26]. - The molecular end is neutral, and the denominator end is slightly bullish. The strategy is to balance the allocation of blue - chips and technology growth stocks [24][25].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **bond market** and **government debt** supply dynamics in China, along with implications for the **equity market** and **credit bonds**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Government Debt Supply**: The net financing scale of government bonds in Q3 is expected to reach **4.08 trillion yuan**, which may exert pressure on the bond market due to seasonal supply increases [1][4]. 2. **10-Year Treasury Yield**: The 10-year treasury yield is anticipated to be at **1.6%** as a bottom, with a breakthrough in the second half of the year being difficult. The upper limit is projected between **1.8% and 1.9%** [1][6]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The bond market is influenced by various factors including redemption risks, tariff negotiations, geopolitical tensions, and stock market volatility, which add uncertainty to demand [1][5][6]. 4. **Stock Market Influence**: Short-term stock market fluctuations have limited impact on the bond market, but the long-term attractiveness of equities is increasing. A shift in focus from bearish to long-term opportunities in the stock market is recommended [1][7][8]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: A strategy of flexible trading and wave operations is advised for Q3 due to expected volatility. The focus should be on equities rather than relying solely on the bond market, which may see reduced returns and increased volatility [1][9]. 6. **Tax Policy Impact**: The new VAT regulations are expected to have a short-term impact on the bond market, favoring older bonds and benefiting ordinary credit bonds and deposits [1][11]. 7. **Credit Bond Market**: The credit bond market is expected to have more opportunities than risks in August, with a focus on the performance of the stock market as a key variable [1][28]. 8. **Market Disturbances**: Key disturbances in the market include policy changes, stock market volatility, and significant events such as military parades and political meetings, which may affect market sentiment [1][29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **PPI Forecast**: A slight upward adjustment in PPI to around **-3.2%** is predicted for July, with potential recovery in August and September depending on demand-side support [1][18]. 2. **Investment Opportunities**: Notable investment opportunities include sectors like **robotics**, **AI**, **military**, and **pharmaceuticals**, which are expected to show structural growth [1][14]. 3. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The economic outlook for Q3 remains resilient, but Q4 will require close monitoring of income and internal demand dynamics [1][22]. 4. **Credit ETF Performance**: Recent performance of credit ETFs showed a rebound after a period of adjustment, indicating potential recovery in investor sentiment [1][30]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the bond market's current state, future expectations, and strategic recommendations for investors.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the bond market may reach its peak moment, becoming a decisive factor in the performance competition in the second half of the year. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August may be greater, while the situation in the last ten - days needs further observation. With five major positive factors supporting, there is a 10 - 12bp downward space for the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, and the potential returns are considerable when considering the duration [2][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. July Bond Market: "Unjust Disaster" - The bond market in July went against market expectations. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds started at 1.64% and 1.85% respectively and rose to 1.75% and 2.00% by the end of the month, with an increase of 11bp and 15bp. The main reasons for the divergence between expectations and reality were the over - fermented risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets and the unexpected tightening of the capital market around the tax period [1][10]. - The bond market in July can be divided into three stages: a calm first ten - days, a turbulent middle ten - days, and a late ten - days when negative factors were released. In the late ten - days, affected by factors such as the start of a large - scale infrastructure project and the "anti - involution" trading, the bond market entered an irrational decline [11][12]. - In terms of various bond types, short - term bonds performed better than long - term bonds, and credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. The yields of various bonds generally increased, and the 30 - year treasury bond had a single - month decline of 2.30%, making July the second - worst month for the bond market this year [15][16][18]. 2. Five Reasons to Be Bullish on the Bond Market in August 2.1. Do Not Underestimate the Change in the US Attitude on Tariff Issues - The result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation may become the main variable for asset pricing again. The US may use tariffs to seek benefits in investment or exports, which could damage global trade relations and create a negative atmosphere for Sino - US negotiations [2][21]. - In the new round of tariff negotiations, the US generally obtained favorable trade terms. This may make the US more aggressive in future Sino - US negotiations. If Sino - US relations deteriorate, it could suppress global and domestic risk preferences, which is beneficial to the bond market [22][24]. 2.2. The Fundamental Situation Weakens Marginally, but the Expectation of Policy Stimulus Retreats - The July PMI data showed that the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, lower than the expected 49.7%. The new orders and production in the manufacturing industry declined, indicating weak demand. The large - scale net purchase of bills by major banks in July and the decline of bill interest rates to near zero may also suggest weak loan demand [25][26]. - The Politburo meeting at the end of July gave an optimistic assessment of the first - half economy, which may make it difficult to introduce short - term "stable growth" policies. If the economic data in the third quarter fluctuates, there may be a time lag before stimulus policies are introduced, which could lead to a decline in risk preferences and be beneficial to the bond market [29]. 2.3. The Suppression of Risk Appetite Caused by "Anti - Involution" Trading Weakens - From July 1st to 25th, affected by "anti - involution" trading, the futures prices of key commodities such as coking coal, coke, and polysilicon increased significantly, and the extreme risk preferences in the market were rapidly boosted, which was the main reason for the sharp adjustment of the bond market [30]. - To suppress speculation, commodity exchanges issued relevant policies at the end of July. The first stage of the general rise in the commodity market may have passed, and the over - risen commodities have entered the price correction stage. The market risk preference has returned to rationality, reducing the resistance to the rise of the bond market [31][32]. 2.4. In Terms of Liquidity, August May Be the Low Point of the Annual Capital Interest Rate - Generally, the capital interest rate in August does not increase significantly compared with July. The natural capital gap in August is not large. Although the net issuance of government bonds may increase, it is offset by the lower tax payment. The MLF maturity scale in August is 3000 billion yuan, and the maturity pressure of repurchase agreements has eased, which is conducive to maintaining a neutral and loose capital interest rate [34][35]. - Historically, the R001 and R007 in August can generally remain stable, and the increase in the capital interest rate usually occurs before the end of the month. After August, the capital interest rate may fluctuate due to factors such as the quarter - end pressure in September and uncertainties in the fourth quarter. Therefore, August may be the low point of the annual capital interest rate [36][37]. 2.5. Pay Attention to the Return of Redeemed Funds and the New Premiums of Insurance "Cost - Reduction" - In July, the continuous redemption of public bond funds by institutions amplified the adjustment of the bond market. However, the redemption pressure may only be within the "institution - fund" circle and has not spread outward. The liability of wealth management products and banks remained stable. For example, wealth management products continued to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit in July [46][49][50]. - If the redeemed funds of funds remain in the inter - bank market, they may flow back to the trading market as the bond market recovers in August, which could push the interest rate down. In addition, due to the adjustment of the insurance product interest rate, the yields of ultra - long - term local bonds and ultra - long - term treasury bonds have risen to around or above the "new cost line" of life insurance, and the ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds may experience an excessive decline in August [50][55][57]. 3. The Bond Market in August May Reach Its Peak Moment: Grasping the Rhythm Is Key - With five major positive factors, the bond market in August may reach its peak moment. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August are greater, while the situation in the late ten - days needs further observation. From the end of July to the beginning of August, although the bond market entered the recovery stage, institutions were still cautious about the duration [5][59]. - It is recommended to extend the duration as much as possible with active individual bonds within the acceptable risk range. The bond interest tax - payment new rule announced by the Ministry of Finance on August 1st may affect the pricing of treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds in three stages, but it is not a negative factor for the bond market [59][63].