Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] 2. Research Analysts - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F3051589 [3] 3. Market Review and Outlook 3.1 Market Review - On October 14, the Wind All - A Index opened higher and then oscillated downward, closing up 0.17%, with over 3,500 stocks falling. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 1.20%, 0.21%, 2.46%, and 1.95% respectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks performing better. Stock index futures performed weaker than the spot market. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 1.21%, 0.11%, 3.06%, and 2.19% respectively [6]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Tensions between China and the US have significantly eased after extensive communication over the weekend. The US Vice - President Vance said Trump is willing to negotiate on tariffs, and the US Treasury Secretary Besent said a 100% tariff on China may not happen. However, the US is open to all options regarding China's rare - earth export restrictions. - China's export data in September showed resilience, but exports to the US continued to decline. Given the high base due to the export rush at the end of last year, China's export year - on - year data in Q4 may face pressure. - For the A - share market, the previous low - valuation advantage has disappeared after a six - month rise, and the high valuation of the technology sector brings higher risks. The Sino - US game is mainly for the end - of - month negotiation, and China's attitude is more proactive and tough. Therefore, tariff disturbances may not subside soon, and market volatility is likely to continue. - It is recommended to participate with a light position and use arbitrage strategies to resist market risks, such as going long on large - cap blue - chips and short on small - cap growth stocks. In terms of market style, attention can be paid to defensive sectors like banks, gas, and power, as well as new infrastructure and domestic substitution sectors that benefit from policies [7]. 4. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including domestic major index performance, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of Wind All - A, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, and statistics of major ETF fund shares and trading volume. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][15][16][17][24] 5. Industry News - On October 14, the central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net investment of 91 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchases due that day [25]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson stated China's consistent stance on the tariff and trade war: ready to fight to the end if necessary and always open to negotiation. China and the US have broad common interests, and the two sides have been communicating within the framework of the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation mechanism, with a working - level meeting held the previous day [25]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investments in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction", which supports energy - saving and carbon - reduction projects in key industries such as power, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals, and machinery, as well as in infrastructure and central and state - owned institutions [25].

Market Overview - On October 14, the A-share market experienced significant volatility, with major indices closing down by 0.62%, 2.54%, and 3.99% respectively, amidst a total market turnover of 2.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 222.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][10] - The semiconductor sector faced a substantial decline, with a net outflow of 17.932 billion yuan in main funds, significantly higher than other sectors [3][4] - Traditional sectors such as banking, insurance, public utilities, and food and beverage showed notable resilience, contrasting sharply with the declines in high-growth sectors [10][12] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector saw major stocks like Yandong Micro and Chipone drop over 11%, while Huahai Qingke and Jinhai Tong fell more than 10% [1][3] - The insurance sector gained traction due to favorable policy developments, with the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission releasing new regulations that enhance oversight of non-auto insurance businesses [10][15] - Despite the overall market downturn, traditional blue-chip sectors such as insurance, gas, liquor, and banking indices rose by over 2% [10][12] Investment Sentiment - Market sentiment has shifted towards risk aversion, with investors moving away from high-flying stocks in favor of safer assets amid ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and geopolitical tensions [12][16] - The banking sector is expected to show stable earnings growth, with projections indicating a 0.6% year-on-year revenue increase and a 0.8% rise in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [14][15] - The insurance sector is seen as having significant investment value due to new policy benefits and improvements in asset management, with a strong correlation between the performance of banking and insurance stocks [15][16] Future Outlook - The upcoming tariff negotiations are anticipated to be a critical factor influencing market dynamics, with aggressive funds poised to react to signals while conservative funds seek refuge in stable investments [12][16] - The banking sector is highlighted as a potential area for investment, particularly in state-owned and quality regional banks, which are expected to benefit from favorable economic conditions and policy support [14][15]

Market Overview - On October 14, A-shares experienced significant volatility, with major indices closing down by 0.62%, 2.54%, and 3.99% respectively, and total market turnover reaching 2.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 222.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - The semiconductor sector saw a substantial outflow of 17.932 billion yuan in net capital, with many stocks, including Yandong Micro and Huahai Qingke, dropping over 10% [5][7] - Traditional sectors such as banking, insurance, and utilities showed resilience, with significant gains, contrasting sharply with the declines in high-growth sectors [14][16] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector faced a collective decline of 4.36%, with a net outflow of 17.932 billion yuan, while energy metals dropped by 5.08% [7] - The insurance sector led the gains with a rise of 3.47%, driven by favorable regulatory news, indicating a shift towards traditional blue-chip stocks as safe havens [15][25] - Precious metals like gold and silver initially surged but later experienced significant pullbacks, reflecting market volatility and profit-taking behavior [12][19] Investment Sentiment - Market sentiment has shifted towards caution, with increasing concerns over potential risks associated with trade negotiations and sector valuations, particularly in technology [16][18] - The banking sector is viewed as a potential safe haven, with expectations of stable earnings growth and attractive dividend yields, making it appealing for risk-averse investors [23][24] - Analysts suggest that the insurance sector's performance is closely tied to banking stocks, as improved bank valuations could enhance insurance stock returns [25][26] Future Outlook - The upcoming trade negotiations are expected to significantly influence market dynamics, with investors advised to balance defensive and growth-oriented strategies [28] - The banking sector is projected to see a rebound in valuations, particularly for state-owned and regional banks, which could attract more investment [22][24] - Overall, the market is likely to remain volatile, with a focus on sectors that can provide stability amidst uncertainty [28]

Report 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View Although steel demand is weak, the cost side provides support. Pay attention to the support levels around 3000 and 3200 for the January contract of rebar and hot-rolled coil respectively. The short-term weak macro sentiment will suppress the black market, but if the Sino-US friction intensifies in the medium term, the inflation expectation of upstream resource products will increase. [1] Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3230 to 3220 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased from 3159 to 3139 yuan/ton. [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price decreased by 10 to 2940 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot-rolled coil in East China decreased by 7. [1] - **Mills**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.8 to 863.3 tons, a decline of 0.4%. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 127.9 to 1600.7 tons, an increase of 8.7%. The rebar inventory increased by 57.4 to 659.6 tons, an increase of 9.5%. [1] - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 to 9.1 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 153.4 to 751.4 tons, a decline of 17.0%. [1] Report 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The weak performance of finished products drags down the raw materials. The iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low levels and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot-rolled coil. [4] Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 1-5 spread increased by 3.0 to 23.5, an increase of 14.6%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly global shipment volume of iron ore decreased by 71.5 to 3207.5 tons, a decline of 2.2%, and the 45-port arrival volume increased by 437.1 to 3045.8 tons, an increase of 16.8%. [4] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9 tons, a decline of 2.9%. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45-port inventory increased by 46.7 to 14024.5 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 to 9046.2 tons, a decline of 9.9%. [4] Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View For coke, it is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal. [6] Summary by Directory - **Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased from 1667 to 1643 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of coking coal decreased from 1161 to 1146 yuan/ton. [6] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all-sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1 tons, and the output of raw coal decreased by 31.3 to 836.7 tons, a decline of 3.6%. [6] - **Demand**: The iron ore output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 10.1 to 909.8 tons, a decline of 1.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all-sample coking plants decreased by 78.7 to 959.1 tons, a decline of 7.6%. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Colombian Minister of Trade, Industry, and Tourism, Morales, stated that the U.S. withdrawal of drug certification does not impose economic or trade sanctions and does not directly affect bilateral relations [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The Colombian government is actively negotiating with the U.S. regarding a 10% tariff, aiming to protect domestic industry and ensure fair export conditions [1] - Despite other regional countries facing higher tariffs, Colombia maintains a 10% tariff level, reflecting successful negotiations and providing a competitive advantage [1] Group 2: Import Regulations - The current rules for automobile imports will be extended until August 2026, continuing to recognize U.S. standards and aligning with United Nations regulations to ensure smooth trade and road safety [1] Group 3: International Relations - Morales announced the resumption of negotiations for an economic partnership agreement with Japan [1]

Core Points - The trade agreement between the Trump administration and South Korea is facing significant challenges, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick taking a hardline stance and South Korean officials expressing concerns about the U.S. changing the rules temporarily [1][2] - The success of the U.S.-South Korea trade agreement is crucial as it serves as a key indicator for the overall progress of tariff negotiations with multiple countries [2][3] - South Korea is under political pressure to avoid making concessions, especially following recent immigration raids that have caused public discontent [3][6] Group 1 - Lutnick has suggested that South Korea should increase its investment commitment from the previously agreed $350 billion to a figure closer to Japan's commitment of $550 billion [1][4] - The U.S. is pushing for South Korea to provide more cash support rather than loans, which could complicate the negotiations [1][3] - South Korea's economic scale is significantly smaller than Japan's, which complicates the comparison of their respective trade agreements with the U.S. [6] Group 2 - The U.S. insists on a trade agreement structure similar to that of Japan, particularly regarding substantial investment commitments in exchange for tariff reductions [4][5] - South Korea has warned its allies that the Trump administration is seeking last-minute concessions despite having reached a verbal agreement [5][6] - Lutnick has indicated that the trade agreement could fall through if South Korea does not accept the terms, emphasizing that there is no middle ground [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Guo Jia Kun, emphasized that the trade war and tariff disputes do not benefit either party and that both sides should negotiate on an equal, respectful, and mutually beneficial basis to resolve related issues [3]. Group 1 - The question raised by foreign media regarding China's potential increase in soybean purchases from the U.S. as part of tariff negotiations was directed to the relevant Chinese authorities for clarification [1]. - Guo Jia Kun highlighted the importance of resolving trade issues through negotiation rather than conflict, reiterating that such disputes are not in the interest of any party involved [3].

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes that trade wars and tariff disputes do not benefit either party and should be resolved through equal, respectful, and mutually beneficial negotiations [1] - A question was raised regarding whether China plans to increase soybean purchases from the U.S. as part of tariff negotiations, to which the spokesperson suggested consulting relevant Chinese authorities for specifics [1] Group 2 - The article includes various unrelated headlines and alerts, such as significant movements in the stock market and warnings about a typhoon, but these do not pertain to specific companies or industries [2] - There are mentions of the media's authority and copyright regarding the content published, indicating a focus on financial news dissemination [3] - The article also includes a notice about unauthorized reproduction of content, which is a standard legal disclaimer in media publications [4]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean Ministry of Finance believes that the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on South Korea will be limited [1] Group 1: Economic Monitoring - South Korea will closely monitor tariff negotiations [1] - The government will also keep an eye on household debt issues [1] - Monitoring will extend to the real estate and petrochemical industries [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent US-China trade talks in Madrid is not on tariffs but rather on a "specific enterprise" that needs to resolve its business operations in the US by September 17 [1][4][6] - The US is not planning to make any concessions on tariffs, maintaining a 30% tariff rate on Chinese goods, while Southeast Asian countries have a lower rate of around 20% [3][6] - China is strategically delaying any significant commitments, using the situation to maintain leverage over the US, especially with the upcoming APEC summit providing a potential opportunity for further discussions [3][4][6] Group 2 - The US is attempting to introduce new topics such as "anti-money laundering" and tariffs on Russian oil purchases to pressure China during negotiations [6][7] - The negotiations are unlikely to resolve fundamental issues, but both sides aim to keep communication open to avoid further deterioration of relations [9] - Spain, as the host of the talks, may benefit diplomatically and economically, especially given its strong ties with China and the recent imposition of tariffs on EU pork imports [9]