豆粕生猪：进口成本下降 豆粕小幅回落 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 第二郎 JIDGHI FITUR | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 单位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 5月29日 | 元/吨 | 3004 | 3013 | -9.00 | -0.30% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 5月29日 | 元/吨 | 2705 | 2710 | -5.00 | -0.18% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 5月29日 | 元/吨 | 2962 | 2961 | 1.00 | 0.03% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 5月29日 | 元/吨 | 2352 | 2347 | 5.00 | 0.21% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 05 | 5月29日 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Strong Buy (★★★)**: Soybean (Domestic), Corn [1] - **Buy (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - **Neutral**: Not specified Core Views - The prices of domestic agricultural products show various trends, with factors such as policy, supply - demand, weather, and imports influencing them. Different products have different outlooks, including oscillations, potential rises, and declines [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybeans are in an oscillating trend after a recent price decline. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed. Imported soybeans have abundant supply from May to July due to large - scale arrivals from Brazil. Mid - term prices of both domestic and US soybeans are expected to be affected by weather, with a predicted oscillating and bullish trend [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean meal prices in most domestic regions are falling, with weakening spot basis and increasing inventory. Supply has become more abundant since May, and the market lacks a driver for continuous price increases [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The domestic futures market shows a pattern of strong meal and weak oil. The domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures are expected to follow the US soybean market. Both soybean and palm oil are expected to maintain an interval - oscillating trend, affected by factors such as supply and overseas production [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed products generally rose today, with rapeseed meal outperforming rapeseed oil. Mid - term policies may bring import bottlenecks, which will relieve supply pressure. The demand for rapeseed meal is promising, and a bullish strategy is recommended [6] Corn - Northeast corn prices are stable, while Shandong's purchase prices are weakening. North port inventories are below 4 million tons, and south port inventories are increasing. The market is expected to be oscillating and bearish in the next stage [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures market is weakly oscillating, and spot prices are slightly rebounding. Long - term supply is expected to recover, and downward pressure on spot prices may affect the futures market [8] Eggs - Egg futures prices are falling with increased positions, while spot prices are rebounding in many areas. After the Dragon Boat Festival, supply pressure may lead to further price drops, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the futures market [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first quarter, the company reported net income of approximately $15.1 million and net income to common shareholders of $9.1 million, or $0.25 per share [25] - Adjusted FFO was about $2 million or $0.06 per share, down from $5.1 million or $0.14 per share in the same quarter last year [25] - Fixed base cash rents decreased by about $5.7 million compared to the prior year quarter due to vacancies and structural changes in leases [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company executed seven new leases or amended existing leases, primarily on permanent crops [8] - The year-over-year decline in fixed base rents is expected to total about $17 million for fiscal year 2025 compared to 2024 [27] - The company anticipates a total year-over-year decline of about $17 million in fixed base rents for fiscal year 2025 compared to 2024, with a reduction of approximately $4 million to $5 million per quarter [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The nut sector is vulnerable to tariffs, with 78% of U.S. grown almonds and pistachios exported annually, and the company is monitoring the impact of tariffs on pricing [20][21] - The company noted that almond prices have risen significantly year over year, while pistachios remained stable or slightly increased [21] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar may help mitigate some negative impacts from tariffs, as it makes U.S. exports cheaper for foreign buyers [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains cautious with new investments due to high interest rates and costs of capital, leading to a slow acquisition activity [8][34] - The company plans to continue with the current lease structure for 2025 and may revert to traditional lease structures next year or consider selling some properties [14] - The company believes investing in farmland growing healthy crops aligns with market trends and expects inflation in the food sector to continue to rise [35][37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed hope for a strong production year, particularly for almonds and pistachios, but acknowledged uncertainty until the fourth quarter [13][14] - The company is focused on maintaining liquidity and ensuring it can meet financial obligations without compromising cash reserves [56][58] - Management indicated that the current farming environment is challenging due to high borrowing costs, which could impact future operations [34][81] Other Important Information - The company has access to over $180 million of capital, including about $40 million in cash on hand [30] - The company declared a monthly dividend of $0.0467 per share for the second quarter of 2025, equating to an annualized yield of 5.8% [32] - The company is evaluating options for vacant farms, including potential new crops and leasing water rights [50] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on $17 million lower revenues in '25 versus '24 - Management confirmed that an additional farm was added to the participation rent structure, contributing to the increased revenue loss estimate for 2025 [39] Question: Total participation rents expected in 2025 - Management expects to recover the $17 million loss and anticipates that insurance should cover that amount plus a small profit [40] Question: Details on the $2.4 million termination fee - The fee was related to three almond farms that are now vacant, and management is exploring options to generate income from those properties [42] Question: Additional sales in the second quarter and beyond - Management indicated that while some farms are listed for sale, there are currently no contracts to execute [48] Question: Status of vacant assets - Two of the vacant farms are open ground with low maintenance costs, while the three almond farms are at the end of their productive life [49] Question: Thoughts on share repurchase given cash balance - Management is prioritizing liquidity and is cautious about using cash for share repurchases, focusing instead on maintaining operational flexibility [56] Question: Financing for upcoming preferred stock maturity - Management is considering options including asset sales and refinancing, but is cautious due to high interest rates [71]

Group 1: Market Overview - The supply of vegetables, meat, and fruits in the Xinfadi market is sufficient and prices are relatively stable ahead of the "May Day" holiday [1] - The price of beef is between 58-60 yuan per kilogram, while lamb is priced at 42 yuan per kilogram [1] - Seafood supply remains stable at approximately 1,000-1,200 tons daily, with no significant increase in pre-holiday purchases [1] Group 2: Vegetable Pricing - Vegetable prices in the Xinfadi market are showing a steady decline, with a significant drop observed [1] - On April 26, the market saw a vegetable supply of 20,000 tons, with a weighted average price of 2.83 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15% [1] - The decline in vegetable prices is attributed to increased supply from the Yellow River's middle and lower reaches and the recovery from previous adverse weather conditions [1] Group 3: Fruit Supply and Pricing - The daily supply of fruits in the Xinfadi market is approximately 12,000 tons, with a weighted average price of 9.75 yuan per kilogram [2] - Seasonal fruits from both northern and southern regions are entering the market, including cherries, blueberries, mangoes, loquats, grapes, and navel oranges [2] - As May approaches, fruit production is expected to peak, leading to a significant decrease in prices for stored fruits like apples and pears [2] Group 4: Market Preparedness - To ensure supply during the "May Day" holiday, the Xinfadi market is coordinating with merchants to enhance planting plans and increase harvesting efforts [2] - The market will utilize live streaming for sales during the holiday, offering same-day and next-day delivery to meet consumer demand [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's soybean import demand is expected to be significantly met due to increased production enthusiasm among farmers in South America, leading to a substantial rise in soybean supply for the new production season [1] - Under the current tariff rates, the landed cost price difference between U.S. Gulf soybeans and South American soybeans has further widened, continuously weakening the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans [1] - The estimated domestic soybean supply-demand gap is projected to be around 85 million to 92 million tons, with Brazil's soybean exports to China potentially exceeding 80 million tons by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The global soybean supply is expected to be ample due to the anticipated bumper harvest in major producing countries, which diminishes the likelihood of significant price increases for South American soybeans [2] - Cost factors such as declining agricultural input costs and improved transportation infrastructure in Brazil are expected to provide little upward support for soybean prices [2] - The price of South American soybeans will primarily be driven by supply and demand fundamentals, with short-term trade friction costs potentially affecting prices but not providing a basis for substantial increases [2] Group 3 - Domestic corn and soybean meal prices have fluctuated within a range, with corn prices between 1,700 to 3,100 yuan per ton and soybean meal prices between 2,500 to 5,500 yuan per ton [3] - The impact of raw material price fluctuations on pig feed costs is estimated to be around 0.3 to 0.5 yuan per kilogram, with a very low probability of a 1 yuan increase in feed costs per kilogram [3] - Despite uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations, the overall price movements of corn and soybean meal have been limited by various external factors [3]