Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the weekly situation of the feed and breeding industry, including the markets of pigs, eggs, and corn, and provides corresponding strategy suggestions based on the supply - demand, cost, and other factors of each variety [4][5][6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Feed and Breeding View Summary - **Pigs**: Supply growth suppresses prices, and the futures price can be short - sold on rebounds. In the short term, policy regulation and pre - holiday stocking expectations may support prices, but the large supply will limit the upside. In the long term, the supply before May next year will increase, and prices will still be under pressure [4]. - **Eggs**: The game between supply and demand intensifies, and it is necessary to wait for spot guidance. In the short term, cold - storage eggs may limit price increases, and in the long term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate may slow down [5]. - **Corn**: During the new crop listing period, the futures price rebound is under pressure. Currently, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under seasonal pressure. In the long term, the planting is stable, but the cost support has shifted down [6]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis Pigs - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the national spot price was 13.26 yuan/kg, down 0.46 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2511 was 13255 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 11 - contract was 215 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton from last week [4]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The average weekly slaughter weight increased, the fat - standard price difference widened, the daily average slaughter rate and slaughter volume decreased first and then increased, the cold - storage inventory rate increased slightly, the pig - grain ratio decreased, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets decreased, and the number of live - pig warehouse receipts decreased [12]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of breeding sows increased steadily from May to November 2024, decreased slightly in December 2024 and January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance improved. The supply of live pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September [15]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the 11 and 01 contracts, take rolling stop - profit on short positions and add short positions on rebounds. The 05 and 03 contracts are generally weak, and the 03 contract is weaker. The 07 contract is relatively strong. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4]. Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.58 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.61 yuan/jin, up 0.35 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main 2511 contract was 3040 yuan/500 kg, up 34 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis was 230 yuan/500 kg, up 306 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The price of eggs increased, the utilization rate of hatching eggs was stable, the number of culled chickens decreased, the egg - chick price decreased, the production and circulation inventories decreased, and the profit of egg - chicken farming improved [60]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The number of newly - laid hens in September is relatively high, and the number of culled chickens has slowed down. The overall supply is relatively sufficient. In the long term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate may slow down [83]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For non - holders, wait for spot guidance. For short positions, pay attention to the pressure level of 3100 - 3150. The 12 and 01 contracts are mainly in a wide - range shock [83]. Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main 2511 contract was 2197 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis was 113 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton from last Friday [6]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The price of corn in some areas increased, the inventory of old - crop corn was limited, the new - crop corn in some areas of the Northeast was gradually listed, the import volume decreased, the demand for feed and deep - processing was weak, and the inventory decreased [90]. - **Key Data Tracking**: In the next 10 days, precipitation in some areas is expected to be higher than normal, which may have an impact on corn production. The overall growth of new - season corn is suitable, but the cost support has shifted down [100]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the 11 - contract, wait for rebounds to short - sell, pay attention to the pressure level of 2220 - 2250, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [100].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a potential increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company's performance is under pressure, with a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit, but the seed business shows growth against the trend [7]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.588 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 9.26% year-on-year, and a net profit of 213 million yuan, down 27.71% year-on-year [7]. - The agricultural input business faced challenges, while the seed segment experienced a 4.31% increase in revenue [7]. - The company is expanding its business layout through subsidiaries and maintaining stable summer grain production [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 722 million yuan, a significant increase of 412.77% year-on-year [7]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 12.03%, down 1.08 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.87%, down 1.18 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company's asset-liability ratio was 50.68%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points year-on-year, indicating ongoing financial structure optimization [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 755 million yuan, 881 million yuan, and 939 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.55 yuan, 0.64 yuan, and 0.68 yuan [9][10]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 17.61 for 2025, decreasing to 14.16 by 2027, suggesting reasonable valuation within the industry [9][10].

Core Insights - The average price of pork in China's wholesale market is 19.88 yuan per kilogram, showing a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous day [1] - The average price of eggs is 7.95 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 0.3% from the previous day [1] Price Trends - Pork price: 19.88 yuan/kg, down 0.3% [1] - Egg price: 7.95 yuan/kg, up 0.3% [1]

Market Overview - Soybean prices have declined, with contracts falling by 5 to 6 cents, and the national average cash bean price reported at $9.47 1/2, down 5 ¾ cents [1] - Soymeal futures experienced losses ranging from $2.80 to $5.30, while soy oil futures increased by 36 to 54 points [1] Export Sales Expectations - Analysts anticipate soybean sales for the week of September 4 to be between 0.4 and 1.6 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season [2] - Soybean meal sales are projected to range from 50,000 to 900,000 metric tons, with bean oil sales expected to be between 0 and 16,000 metric tons [2] Crop Production Insights - The upcoming monthly Crop Production report is expected to show a yield drop of 0.3 bushels per acre (bpa) to an average of 53.3 bpa, with total production estimated at 4.271 billion bushels (bbu), reflecting a reduction of 21 million bushels (mbu) [3] - The USDA is expected to revise ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year to 328 mbu, a decrease of 2 mbu compared to August, while new crop stocks are projected at 288 mbu, also down 2 mbu from August [3] Argentina Production Forecast - Argentina's soybean production is estimated at 47 MMT, which is a decrease of 2.5 MMT from the previous year, attributed to lower acreage [4] - Specific closing prices for soybeans on September 25 include $10.05 1/2 for nearby contracts, $10.25 1/4 for November 25 contracts, and $10.44 3/4 for January 26 contracts, all reflecting a decline of 6 cents or 5 ¾ cents [4]

Group 1: Egg Market - The egg market is experiencing low prices due to high inventory levels of laying hens, with the average wholesale price at 7.58 yuan per kilogram for the week of August 25-31, 2025, reflecting a 0.3% decrease week-on-week and a 29% decrease year-on-year [1] Group 2: Pork and Vegetable Market - Pork prices showed mixed trends, with the average retail price of pork at 34.9 yuan per kilogram, down 0.57% week-on-week, while other cuts like hind leg meat and large ribs saw slight increases of 0.80% and 0.19% respectively [1] - Among 28 monitored vegetable varieties, 22 saw price increases while 6 experienced declines, leading to an overall retail average of 10.31 yuan per kilogram, up 1.48% week-on-week [1] - Significant price increases were noted for cucumbers (up 13.5% to 8.49 yuan/kg), leafy greens (up 13.25% to 7.18 yuan/kg), and green beans (up 10.82% to 15.57 yuan/kg) [1] Group 3: Seafood Market - The total wholesale trading volume of seafood was 3604.6 tons, with a daily average of 514.94 tons, marking a 2.97% decrease [2] - Among 11 monitored seafood products, 5 saw price increases while 6 experienced declines, with notable price rises for silver carp (up 7.07% to 39.07 yuan/kg) and crucian carp (up 2.95% to 37.75 yuan/kg) [2]

Group 1: Pork and Water Products - The average daily trading volume of pork reached 8,979 heads (687.67 tons), an increase of 5.48% compared to the previous week [1] - The average price of live pigs in Hangzhou was 16.13 yuan/kg, down 0.31%, while the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, down 1.43% [1] - Retail prices for various pork cuts showed mixed results, with pork loin at 35.1 yuan/kg (down 2.09%) and pork leg at 27.5 yuan/kg (down 2.96%) [1] Group 2: Vegetables - The average daily trading volume of vegetables was 3,620.71 tons, a decrease of 0.61% from the previous week [2] - The overall average wholesale price of vegetables increased by 8% to 4.32 yuan/kg, with significant price increases for cabbage (up 18.54%) and spinach (up 18.16%) [2] - Retail prices for monitored vegetable varieties showed an overall increase of 2.83%, with notable increases for loofah (up 18.07%) and cauliflower (up 9.99%) [2] Group 3: Eggs and Aquatic Products - The average daily trading volume of eggs remained stable at 1,035 tons, with chicken eggs priced at 7.51 yuan/kg (up 1.74%) [3] - The total trading volume of aquatic products was 3,714.85 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 530.69 tons, an increase of 0.99% [3] - The overall average wholesale price of aquatic products decreased by 1.86% to 45.27 yuan/kg, with significant price increases for certain fish types like flower bass (up 7.14%) [3]

Group 1: Poultry Market Insights - The average prices for fast, medium, and slow-growing yellow feathered chickens in the third week of August are 10.84 CNY/kg, 12.68 CNY/kg, and 15.24 CNY/kg, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 5.9%, 5.0%, and 5.0% [1][2] - Yellow chicken prices have risen for five consecutive weeks, with a single chicken's profit restored to 3.7 CNY based on a weight of 2.2 kg and a cost of 11 CNY/kg [2] - The supply side indicates a significant reduction in the supply of medium and fast-growing chickens, leading to market shortages, while high-end products are selling well [2][4] Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand is positively influenced by events such as graduation banquets and preparations for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, leading to an overall increase in sales [2] - The industry is gradually resuming breeding activities, further boosting overall sales volume [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The current market conditions suggest that the poultry sector may experience a recovery in the next quarter, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies such as Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ) and Lihua Agricultural (300761.SZ) [2] - In the white feather chicken segment, the average price is 7.33 CNY/kg, with a slight increase of 1.8% from the previous week, while chicken product prices have decreased by 0.6% [4] - The market for genetically modified varieties is expected to enter commercial sales, indicating potential growth for industry companies [5] Group 4: Livestock Market Overview - The national price for lean meat pigs is 13.71 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous week, with a focus on companies that demonstrate cost-effectiveness and growth potential [3] - The livestock sector is still experiencing price volatility, and leading feed companies are expected to benefit from their advantages over smaller competitors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in livestock and agricultural commodity prices, highlighting fluctuations in pig, chicken, corn, wheat, soybean meal, and natural rubber prices, along with the underlying factors influencing these changes [3][4][5][6]. Livestock Prices - The price of commodity pigs increased to 13.76 yuan/kg, a week-on-week rise of 0.36%, while the price of piglets decreased to 28.87 yuan/kg, down 5.03% [3]. - The average weight of commodity pigs at slaughter was 127.82 kg, showing a slight increase of 0.02 kg week-on-week [3]. - The price of white feather broilers rose to 7.2 yuan/kg, up 0.84%, and chicken seedlings increased to 3.58 yuan/seedling, a significant rise of 14.38% [4]. Grain Prices - Corn prices fell slightly to an average of 2394.12 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, while wheat prices increased to 2438.11 yuan/ton, up 0.03%, and soybean meal prices rose to 3096.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.7% [5]. - The USDA report projected a significant increase in U.S. corn production for the 2025/26 season, raising the forecast from 157.05 million bushels to 167.42 million bushels, which is approximately 4.25 million tons [5]. Natural Rubber Prices - The price of domestic natural rubber futures reached 15780 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.81% [6]. - The inventory of rubber in Qingdao decreased to 612,400 tons, with a reduction of 11,700 tons week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [6].

Group 1: Pork Market - The daily supply of white strip pigs in Beijing's Xinfadi market exceeds 1,800 heads, with an average price of 16.9 yuan per kilogram, showing a significant increase compared to last week due to the "fattening for autumn" custom, leading to higher pork consumption [1] - Despite the rising demand, pork prices are not expected to fluctuate significantly in the short term, as production capacity control and the management of live pig weights are being implemented slowly, indicating a gradual downward trend in meat prices [3] Group 2: Vegetable Market - On August 13, the vegetable supply in Xinfadi market reached 19,300 tons, with a weighted average price of 3 yuan per kilogram, indicating sufficient overall supply; however, rainfall has increased vegetable losses in northern production areas, leading to a decrease in output [3] - Prices of certain vegetables, such as cauliflower, have fluctuated due to weather impacts, while more resilient vegetables like onions, potatoes, and carrots have maintained stable prices [3] Group 3: Fruit Market - The daily supply of fruits in Xinfadi market is stable at 12,000 tons, with a weighted average price of 7.18 yuan per kilogram; major varieties include watermelon, cantaloupe, and grapes, with watermelon supply primarily from Jilin, Hebei, and Ningxia [4] - The daily supply of grapes has increased to 1,500 tons in August, with prices dropping by approximately 20% compared to the previous month, sourced from regions like Yunnan, Sichuan, Liaoning, Hebei, and Xinjiang [4] Group 4: Durian Market - The Xinfadi International Durian Pavilion is currently under renovation, with limited durian sales; prices for various durian types range from 30 yuan to 135 yuan per pound, depending on the variety [4][6] - The main source of durians is southern Thailand, with recent prices for durians in boxes ranging from 620 to 680 yuan, reflecting a decrease in production and quality [6]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.1% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.19 yuan per kilogram, rising by 2.4%, with spinach, cauliflower, and cucumber increasing by 24.5%, 16.9%, and 9.9% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of grain and oil showed slight fluctuations, with rapeseed oil up by 0.1%, while soybean oil and rice prices remained stable, and flour and peanut oil decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with white strip chicken increasing by 0.3% and eggs decreasing by 1.0% [1] - Meat wholesale prices slightly declined, with pork at 20.31 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.2%, while lamb decreased by 0.1% and beef increased by 0.3% [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products decreased, with large yellow croaker, large hairtail, and crucian carp dropping by 1.1%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively [1] - Fruit wholesale prices saw a slight decline, with watermelon, pear, and grape prices falling by 4.0%, 2.2%, and 1.6% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The wholesale prices of finished oil products slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline dropping by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Rubber prices showed a slight decline, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber decreasing by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices predominantly decreased, with rebar, high-speed wire, and channel steel priced at 3452 yuan, 3639 yuan, and 3690 yuan per ton, down by 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals showed slight fluctuations, with copper down by 0.6%, while zinc and aluminum increased by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices remained stable, with soda ash and polypropylene decreasing by 0.4% and 0.3%, while methanol remained unchanged and sulfuric acid increased by 0.1% [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable, with urea and ternary compound fertilizer unchanged from the previous week [2] - Coal prices saw a slight increase, with coking coal, smokeless lump coal, and thermal coal priced at 976 yuan, 1135 yuan, and 761 yuan per ton, increasing by 1.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [2]