Group 1 - The foreign exchange market is experiencing increased volatility due to signs of weakness in the US labor market, leading investors to bet more heavily on an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - Recent data indicates that US job openings fell to a 10-month low in July, with overall signs of cooling in the employment market, which is a critical reference for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to nearly 97%, up from 89% a week prior, with expectations of a cumulative rate cut of 139 basis points by the end of next year [1] Group 2 - The global bond market's volatility adds uncertainty to foreign exchange trends, with rising long-term government bond yields reflecting investor concerns about the fiscal health of major economies [5] - Despite weak employment data and dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials, US Treasury yields have retreated, with the 30-year Treasury yield dropping from a one-and-a-half-month high of 5% to 4.891% [5] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report will be a key focus, as further confirmation of labor market slowdown could increase the likelihood of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting the dollar and potentially boosting the appeal of gold and other safe-haven assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. employment report is expected to show a moderate recovery in the labor market, but this may not significantly alter the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Employment Growth Expectations - Bank of America predicts that the U.S. non-farm payrolls for August will increase by 90,000, surpassing July's 73,000 and the market consensus of 75,000 [1] - The report highlights that the four-week average of initial jobless claims remains at a moderate level, while continuing claims have decreased, supporting the view of a slight acceleration in employment growth [1] Group 2: Risks of Data Revision - There is a significant risk of downward revision for July's non-farm payrolls, which could indicate more persistent labor market weakness than previously expected [2] - The initial response rate for the July survey was only 57.6%, much lower than the 68.4% in May and 59.5% in June, raising concerns about the reliability of the data [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Threshold - The threshold for preventing a rate cut has been raised, with the need for strong data to justify maintaining interest rates [3] - A report that could lead the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged would require an unemployment rate of 4.2% or lower, job growth exceeding 70,000, and minimal revisions to July's data [3] Group 4: Sector-Specific Employment Trends - The employment market in August is expected to show structural differentiation, with some sectors experiencing growth while others remain weak [5] - Government employment is projected to increase by 5,000 jobs in August after a decrease of 10,000 in July, and the tourism and hospitality sectors are expected to see a slight recovery [5][6] - However, professional and business services may continue to face hiring challenges due to AI adoption and a low liquidity labor market, while manufacturing employment is expected to remain weak due to labor supply shocks and tariff uncertainties [6] Group 5: Wage and Hour Stability - Bank of America anticipates that average hourly earnings will grow by 0.3% month-over-month in August, with average weekly hours remaining stable at 34.3 hours [6]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for an immediate interest rate cut, supporting a 25 basis point reduction at the upcoming September meeting, with expectations for further cuts in the next 3 to 6 months [1][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Policy - Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy meeting on September 16-17, 2023, and anticipates additional cuts in the following months [1][3]. - He emphasizes that the neutral interest rate is around 3%, significantly lower than the current target range of 4.25%-4.50% [3]. Economic Indicators - Waller notes that the potential inflation rate is nearing the Fed's long-term target of 2%, while labor market weakness is becoming a concern [3]. - The recent non-farm payroll data showed a significant drop in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [5]. Internal Fed Dynamics - Waller and fellow voting member Michelle Bowman expressed a rare divergence in opinion, advocating for a rate cut while others preferred to maintain the current rates [4]. - This internal disagreement highlights differing assessments within the Fed regarding tariffs and economic outlook [4]. Market Reactions - The market data supports the case for a rate cut, as the labor market shows signs of deterioration, which may prompt the Fed to adjust its policy stance [5].

他认为，美国潜在通胀率已接近美联储2%的长期目标，基于市场的长期通胀预期稳固，且劳动力市场 出现疲软的可能性增加，因此支持立即降息。沃勒认为美联储应"忽略"关税对通胀的影响，并预计其影 响是暂时的。 美联储理事沃勒支持在9月16日至17日的下次货币政策会议上降息25个基点。沃勒预计未来三到六个月 内还将进一步降息，具体步伐将根据即将公布的数据而定。 在7月末的上次FOMC会议上，沃勒与另一位理事鲍曼投票反对维持利率不变，主张降息25个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, with the December 2025 gold futures price dropping by $6.5 to $3410.7 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.19% [1] - Following a significant increase last Friday, the gold market has returned to a summer-like trading pattern, as the market has largely absorbed comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming [1] - Powell hinted at a potential interest rate cut as early as the September policy meeting, while also acknowledging the challenges posed by inflation rates remaining above the 2% target and signs of weakness in the labor market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index rebounded, exerting additional pressure on gold prices, with the index rising by 0.73% to close at 98.430 [1] - Market analysts suggest that a sustained weakness in the dollar could continue to support gold prices, while concerns over potential government intervention and policy missteps may have a more significant impact on interest rates, the dollar, and gold [1] - Despite a reduction in global uncertainties and changes in trading flows, analysts believe that gold prices remain well-supported with limited downside risks [1] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are currently struggling to break out of a consolidation phase, with the $3400 level acting as a significant resistance point [2] - Silver futures for September delivery also saw a decline, dropping by $0.34 to close at $39.050 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.86% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has opened the door for potential interest rate cuts as early as next month, indicating a shift in economic outlook due to a possible significant slowdown in the labor market and concerns over inflation driven by tariffs [1][2][4]. Economic Outlook - Powell noted that the balance of risks is changing, with the labor market showing signs of weakness, which could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates [1][3]. - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady this year, citing a robust labor market and uncertainty regarding inflation risks from tariffs [1][2]. Inflation Concerns - Powell emphasized that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming clearer and is expected to accumulate in the coming months, raising questions about whether these price increases will lead to persistent inflation risks [2][4]. - He expressed greater confidence that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but warned that rising costs could lead to a wage-price spiral if workers successfully negotiate higher wages [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, traders increased bets on a rate cut in September, with the probability now exceeding 90%, up from about 75% before his remarks [5]. - U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Dow Jones reaching a new historical high, while the dollar index fell below 98 [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts believe Powell's dovish stance indicates readiness for a rate cut in September, driven by labor market weaknesses rather than tariff-induced price increases [7][8]. - Powell's commitment to data-driven policy decisions reflects a response to political pressures, emphasizing that monetary policy will not follow a predetermined path [8].

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔即将发表可能是他迄今为止最重要的讲话——就在几天前，他的一位同事因涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈而 受到起诉威胁。 每年，美联储主席都会在堪萨斯城联邦储备银行于怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔为世界各国央行行长举办的年度经济研讨会上发表 备受期待的演讲。这场演讲旨在让投资者了解未来几个月的货币政策走向。 但今年的讲话背景截然不同。几个月来，美联储一直遭受着唐纳德·特朗普总统前所未有的全面攻击，他不仅对鲍威尔进行 了一系列人身攻击，并扬言要解雇他，现在还试图罢免前总统乔·拜登任命的美联储理事丽莎·库克。总统的不满源于美联 储今年未能降低借贷成本。 此次演讲可以说是鲍威尔的最后一场演讲，他的主席任期将于 2026 年 5 月结束。财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent） 已牵头寻找鲍威尔的继任者，总统可能很快就会宣布他的人选，也就是鲍威尔任期结束前几个月。两位现任美联储理事 ——也就是与鲍威尔分道扬镳的两位——正在被考虑担任主席，这凸显了美联储内部罕见的分歧。 利率情况如何？ 自去年 12 月以来，美联储官员一直维持利率不变 ，等待观察特朗普的大范围关税措施对价格产生何种影响，然后再恢复 降息，这可能会刺 ...

此外，美联储7月货币政策会议纪要还显示，与会者认为，如果加征关税对物价的影响长期持续，将危 及长期通胀预期的稳定性。 刘英分析说，这是美联储对美国关税政策长期影响做出的判断。 当地时间8月20日，美联储公布的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)7月货币政策会议纪要显示，部分与会者 指出，美国对全球贸易对象加征关税的政策，将持续影响美国消费和服务价格。 与此同时，与会者指出，迄今为止的证据表明，外国出口商只支付了加征关税的"小部分成本"，美国国 内企业和消费者则承担了"主要成本"。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英在接受总台环球资讯广播记者采访时分析认为，这是美联储对 当下美国关税政策影响的判断，而这一结论与特朗普在第一任期内发起关税战时，美国业界做出的评价 一致。 这次美联储的货币政策会议纪要对美国关税政策对价格的影响做出"逐步推升"的明确判断。在成本分摊 方面，其实在特朗普第一任期时，包括彼得森研究所也做出了非常明确的数据分析，结论就是九成以上 的关税成本都是由美国消费者承担的。美联储也认为这些高关税，无论是"对等关税"还是行业关税，都 会逐步由美国的消费者来承担，从而推升美国的通胀，所以它在降息方面采取了一 ...

Group 1 - James Bullard, a strong contender for the Federal Reserve chair, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, suggesting a total reduction of 100 basis points within this year, starting with a cut in September [1][2] - Bullard's stance contrasts with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who maintains a more cautious outlook, expecting only one rate cut this year, reflecting internal policy disagreements within the Fed amid signs of a weak labor market and inflationary pressures [1][3] - Market expectations are leaning towards a rate cut in the upcoming September meeting, with futures contracts indicating a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction [1] Group 2 - Bullard believes the current policy rate is "a bit too high" and emphasizes the need for swift action, indicating that further cuts could follow later this year depending on economic data [2] - Bostic describes the current interest rate level as "marginally" restrictive and suggests that once the Fed begins to adjust rates, it should do so in a consistent direction rather than oscillating [3] - The divergence in views among Fed officials comes at a critical time for policy-making, with Bostic highlighting concerns over recent employment reports and rising wholesale inflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate increasing concerns among officials regarding economic slowdown, particularly in the second half of the year [1] Economic Activity - Several participants in the meeting expressed expectations that economic activity growth will remain sluggish in the latter half of the year [1] Consumer Spending - Observations were made regarding the household sector, noting that the slowdown in real income growth may be suppressing consumer spending growth [1] Labor Market - The concerns about economic slowdown, particularly due to a weak labor market, may have intensified for some officials following the downward revision of job growth estimates by 258,000 for May and June [1]