Group 1 - Gold prices have been rising since August 22, closing September with a strong bullish trend, indicating robust market momentum [1] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points during the September meeting, with expectations for further rate cuts increasing due to ongoing labor market weakness [1][4] - As of late October, the probability of a rate cut has risen to nearly 100%, with a 99.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October [4] Group 2 - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August and a decrease of 32,000 in September's ADP data [3] - Revised data from the Labor Department indicates a reduction of 911,000 in actual non-farm employment over the past year, with an average monthly increase of only 71,000 [3] - Job openings rose to 7.23 million in August, but hiring plans have dropped to the lowest level since June of the previous year, indicating fewer opportunities for job seekers [3] Group 3 - The recent government shutdown on October 1 has raised concerns about delayed data releases, further increasing the likelihood of a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve [4] - Analysts suggest that if unemployment rates rise significantly, the Federal Reserve may need to adopt more aggressive rate cuts, potentially leading to market volatility [4] - Technically, gold is showing a bullish trend on both weekly and monthly charts, with expectations of reaching around $4,000 in the short term [4]

Core Insights - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with private sector job losses and declining job openings indicating a potential slowdown in economic activity [2][7]. Job Market Data - ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, significantly below expectations [2]. - Job openings fell to 17 million in September, representing a 17.2% decrease year-over-year, marking the lowest level of active job postings in at least three years [3]. - The professional and business services industry experienced the steepest decline in job openings, down 31.4% year-over-year, followed by the government sector and "other services," both down 30.5% year-over-year [4]. Hiring Trends - Employers have announced plans to hire 204,939 workers in 2023, a 58% decrease compared to the same period last year, marking the lowest hiring plans for the first nine months since 2009 [5]. - Seasonal hiring plans are significantly subdued, with only 100,800 seasonal hires planned last month compared to 401,850 in October of the previous year [6]. - The overall hiring slowdown is attributed to lower consumer confidence and tariff pressures, particularly affecting the retail sector as the holiday season approaches [6].

Core Viewpoint - In September 2023, the U.S. private sector experienced a reduction of 32,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 and significantly lower than the market expectation of an increase of approximately 50,000 jobs [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The data released by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) indicates a notable contraction in the job market, with a decrease of 32,000 positions in the private sector [1] - The U.S. Department of Labor was scheduled to release the non-farm payroll report for September on October 3, but due to the federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend all operations during the funding interruption [1] - The non-farm employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics includes government sector jobs, which are not reflected in the ADP report [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Some economic analysts predict that if the U.S. labor market continues to show weakness, the Federal Reserve may announce another interest rate cut in October [1]

Group 1 - The bond market is accustomed to fluctuations, but the significance of these changes is uncertain and may depend on the duration of the trends observed [1][2] - Recent weak ADP employment report, the weakest since March 2023, along with a negative revision to the previous month, has led to market reactions [2] - Two-year yields have dropped more significantly than ten-year yields, indicating a notable shift in the yield curve dynamics [3][6] Group 2 - The decline in two-year yields highlights concerns regarding labor market weakness, which is a critical factor for the Federal Reserve's inflation strategy [4] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve easing have increased, with probabilities exceeding 100% for the next meeting, suggesting a pricing in of more than 25 basis points [5] - The yield curve is steepening as short-term rates have decreased more sharply, indicating a significant market adjustment [6]

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell to 94.2 in September, down 3.6 points from August and below the expected 96, marking the lowest level since April [1] - The assessment of the current economic situation by consumers has significantly deteriorated, with the index for "current conditions" reaching a one-year low, indicating a rapid decline in public confidence [1] - The percentage of respondents who believe job opportunities are "plentiful" dropped to 26.9%, a decrease of over 3 percentage points from the previous month, while those who find jobs "hard to get" remained at 19.1% [1] Group 2 - The number of job openings in the U.S. increased slightly to 7.23 million in August, but year-over-year, job openings decreased by 422,000, a decline of 5.5%, indicating a retreat from peak hiring demand [2] - The resignation rate in August decreased by 75,000, reflecting a reduced willingness of workers to change jobs, which suggests a tightening labor market [2] - Federal Reserve officials are cautious about balancing inflation and employment, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and December, totaling a 50 basis point reduction for the year [2] Group 3 - The risk of a government shutdown looms, with a deadline of September 30 for Congress to pass a temporary funding bill, which could lead to a halt in economic data releases from key statistical agencies [3] - If the government shuts down, critical economic data such as the non-farm payroll report and consumer price index may be delayed, impacting the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed policy decisions [3] - Historical precedent shows that during a previous government shutdown in 2013, the employment report was delayed, highlighting the potential consequences of a data vacuum [3] Group 4 - Political tensions between Democrats and Republicans over budget issues remain high, with efforts to push preferred funding bills amidst sharp criticisms regarding healthcare funding cuts [4] - The lack of scheduled meetings between the White House and congressional leaders raises concerns about the potential for a last-minute compromise to avoid a government shutdown [5] - The political risks and market impacts of a prolonged deadlock are significant, even if Congress acts quickly to restore government operations after a technical shutdown [5]

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a decline for the second consecutive day, with the Dow Jones falling by 171.50 points (0.37%) to 46121.28, the Nasdaq down 0.34% to 22497.86, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.28% to 6637.97 [2] - The materials sector led the decline, while the energy sector rose due to a significant increase in oil prices [2] Key Company Performances - Tesla shares increased by 4.0%, while Microsoft rose by 0.2%. In contrast, Amazon fell by 0.2%, Apple and Nvidia dropped by 0.8%, and Google decreased by 1.8% [2] - Oracle's stock fell by 1.7% amid reports of the company planning to raise $15 billion through bond issuance [2] Economic Data - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 2.8%, with Alibaba increasing by 8.2%, JD.com and Baidu rising over 5%, and Pinduoduo up by 1.9%. However, NetEase saw a decline of 1.8% [3] - In August, new home sales in the US increased by 20.5% from July, reaching an annualized total of 800,000 units, surpassing market expectations [3] - The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 0.6% increase in mortgage applications due to a decline in the average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious remarks have injected a degree of caution into the market, particularly regarding the labor market, leading some investors to take profits [3] - Powell indicated that asset prices appear to be at "relatively high valuation levels," and emphasized the need for a balance between addressing inflation risks and labor market weaknesses [3][4] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that further rate cuts may be necessary due to slowing economic growth and consumer spending [4] Bond Market - The yields on long-term US Treasury bonds have risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.1 basis points to 4.14%, and the 2-year yield rising by 3.2 basis points to 3.60% [4] Commodity Market - International oil prices reached a seven-week high, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.49% to $64.99 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by 2.48% to $69.31 per barrel [5] - Gold prices fell from record highs, with COMEX gold futures for September delivery dropping by 1.28% to $3732.10 per ounce [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates amid high inflation raises questions about maintaining public trust and requires clear communication regarding the rationale behind this move [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve, represented by Kashkari, has chosen to lower interest rates despite inflation rates being above target levels [1] - Kashkari emphasizes the need to explain the reasons for the rate cut, particularly in the context of four consecutive years of high inflation [1] Group 2: Inflation and Labor Market - Kashkari indicates that a weak labor market supports the decision to lower interest rates, suggesting that inflation levels are likely to decrease as a result [1] - He expresses confidence in bringing the inflation rate back to the target level of 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary policy is shifting towards a loosening cycle, with central banks in various countries, including the U.S., Indonesia, Canada, the UK, and Japan, announcing interest rate decisions that reflect this trend [1][12]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since 2025 [1][12]. - The decision aligns with market expectations, but the reasons behind the cut are debated, with factors including economic data and political pressure from the Trump administration [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with significant downward revisions to non-farm payrolls, approximately 900,000 jobs adjusted [3][4]. - Current core inflation is around 3%, which remains above the Fed's target of 2%, complicating the monetary policy landscape [4][6]. Political Influence - The Trump administration's pressure on the Federal Reserve is a new variable affecting monetary policy decisions, with the President publicly criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for being slow to act [2][5]. - The influence of political factors is expected to persist as long as Trump remains in office, potentially leading to further rate cuts if economic conditions align with his objectives [5][12]. Market Reactions - The market is currently in a bullish trend, benefiting from the Fed's decision to cut rates, which is expected to release liquidity and favor risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [8][9]. - However, if inflation rises significantly, it could lead to a rapid market downturn, highlighting the delicate balance the Fed must maintain [8][9]. Future Outlook - The potential for additional rate cuts depends on economic data performance and the ongoing political pressure from the Trump administration [9][10]. - Other major central banks are likely to maintain their policies based on regional data rather than directly following the Fed's decision [11][12].

人民财讯9月18日电，当地时间9月17日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基 点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是继2024年降息100个基点后今年的首次降息。政策制定者的预测表明未来 两次会议有望进一步降息。瑞银财富管理大中华区投资总监及亚太区宏观经济主管胡一帆对此表示，展 望未来，基准情景下，美联储到2026年第一季度有望进一步降息75个基点，预计美联储或继续优先考虑 劳动力市场的疲软，而不是通胀暂时上升的可能。在下行情景下，如果劳动力市场疲软被证明更严重或 更持久，美联储可能会降息200-300个基点，这可能会使利率低至1.0-1.5%。 ...

Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% in August 2025, indicating a weaker labor market as employment growth fell below expectations [1][2] - The total number of employed individuals decreased by 5,400 month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 1.5%, totaling 14.6265 million [1] - The number of unemployed individuals decreased by about 0.1% month-on-month but increased by approximately 4.5% year-on-year, reaching 647,400 [1] Employment Data Summary - Seasonally adjusted employment figures showed a month-on-month decrease in working hours by 0.4%, while the underemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 5.7% [1] - Trend data indicated an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, with a month-on-month employment growth of about 0.1% and a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, totaling 14.643 million [1] - The number of unemployed individuals increased by approximately 0.6% month-on-month and by 6.5% year-on-year, totaling 652,300 [1] Economic Analysis - The average annual growth rate of employment over the past three months was 1.8%, down from 2.2% in May and 2.5% in February, suggesting a gradual weakening of the labor market [2] - The current employment growth rate is below the labor force population growth rate of 2%, with the employment-to-population ratio declining from a peak of 64.4% in January to 64% in August [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to consider these trends but may not make immediate changes to monetary policy due to the volatility of monthly data [2] Future Projections - Westpac Bank anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely lower interest rates in November, with a further reduction of 50 basis points expected in 2026 [3]