Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that this does not signal the start of a long-term easing cycle, dampening market enthusiasm [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The recent rate cut is characterized as a "risk management" measure, aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic slowdowns rather than a shift to aggressive monetary easing [3]. - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of further rate cuts this year, with opinions ranging from one official advocating for a rate hike to others suggesting additional cuts [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.57% to 46,018.32 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.33% to 22,261.33 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.10% to 6,600.35 points [3]. - The dollar index initially dropped by 0.4% after the rate cut but later recovered to rise by 0.3% following Powell's press conference, indicating a complex market response to the Fed's signals [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Powell indicated that inflation risks are skewed to the upside while employment risks are leaning downward, suggesting a challenging economic environment [4]. - The Fed's projections for 2026 indicate a more hawkish stance, with officials expecting only one additional rate cut next year, which is less than market expectations of two to three cuts [4].

Core Viewpoint - Following the Federal Reserve's long-anticipated interest rate cut, Wall Street experienced a "sell the fact" trading pattern, with funds flowing out of overvalued tech stocks into traditional sectors like finance and utilities that benefit from lower rates [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated the possibility of two more cuts within the year, citing employment risks [1]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted a slight increase in inflation risks and described the rate cut as a "risk management" move, which intensified the sell-off in tech stocks [1][4]. Group 2: Tech Sector Performance - The Nasdaq 100 index fell by 0.2%, with the tech-heavy "Big Seven" index declining by 0.66%, ending a four-day rally [1]. - Since early April, the "Big Seven" tech stocks, including Nvidia and Alphabet, surged nearly 60%, with their expected price-to-earnings ratio rising from about 22 to 30 [3]. - There was a notable divergence within the tech sector, with rate-sensitive stocks like Nvidia, Amazon, and Broadcom declining, while Apple and Microsoft, viewed as safer investments, saw gains [7]. Group 3: Bond Market Impact - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields negatively impacted tech stocks, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6.3 basis points and the 2-year yield by 5.62 basis points after Powell's remarks [4][6]. - Higher yields can diminish the present value of future profits, which is critical for tech companies whose valuations are heavily based on long-term earnings expectations [6]. Group 4: Traditional Sectors' Response - As tech stocks faced pressure, capital shifted towards sectors that directly benefit from lower interest rates, such as finance, consumer staples, and utilities, which performed well on the S&P 500 [8]. - The KBW Bank Index rose by 1.3%, benefiting from lower rates that are expected to stimulate loan demand and reduce deposit costs [8]. - The Russell 2000 small-cap index saw a temporary increase of 2.1%, reflecting a shift in risk appetite among investors [8]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - Despite the sector rotation, the market did not exhibit panic, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) dropping below 16, indicating lower volatility compared to typical market stress levels [9]. - The S&P 500 index experienced only a 0.1% decline, marking one of the least volatile Fed decision days in two years [9].

北京时间9月17日晚，美股三大指数接近平开，截至22:09，纳斯达克、标普500指数下跌。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，加拿大银行（央行）当地时间9月17日宣布，将政策利率降低25个基点至2.50%。 美股芯片股盘前短线走低，费城半导体指数低开，博通、英特尔等跌幅明显，英伟达股价低开低走，跌近2.5%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 -- | | --- | --- | --- | | 博通(BROADC ... | 349.825 | -2.83% | | AVGO.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 170.575 | -2.46% | | NVDA.O | | | | ONTO INNOVA ... | 118.240 | -1.94% | | ONTO.N | | | | COHERENT | 103.100 | -1.31% | | COHR.N | | | | 英特尔(INTEL) | 25.035 | -0.93% | | INTC.O | | | | MACOM TECH ... | 130.585 | -0.45% | | MTSI.O | | | | 艾马克技术 | 26.95 ...

记者丨刘雪莹 编辑丨陈思颖 视频 丨王学权 北京时间9月17日晚，美股三大指数接近平开，截至22:09，纳斯达克、标普500指数下跌。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数盘初大幅上涨，其中百度、小牛电动、金山云等涨幅居前。 | 小牛电动 | 4.410 | 6.78% | | --- | --- | --- | | NIU.O | | | | 金山云 | 17.090 | 6.41% | | KC.O | | | | 万国数据 | 39.425 | 5.64% | | GDS.O | | | | 老虎证券 | 11.410 | 5.16% | | TIGR.O | | | | 世纪互联 | 10.020 | 4.48% | | VNET.O | | | | 贝壳 | 20.839 | 4.25% | | BEKE.N | | | | 蔚来 | 7.285 | 3.77% | | NIO.N | | | | 极気 | 30.945 | 3.56% | | ZK.N | | | | 声网 | 3.850 | 3.49% | | APIO | | | 消息面上，据央视新闻报道， 加拿大银行（央行）当地时间9月17日宣布， 将政策 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market closed lower amid cautious trading as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut due to signs of a weakening job market [1][2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached all-time highs on Monday, but September is typically seen as a weak month for U.S. stocks, yet all three major indices have recorded gains so far this month [3] Economic Indicators - August retail sales in the U.S. exceeded expectations, indicating resilient consumer demand, but analysts believe this will not alter the Fed's rate cut expectations [1] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped significantly by 12 basis points to 6.13%, the lowest level since the end of 2022, amid widespread bets on an impending rate cut [3] Sector Performance - All three major indices closed down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 125.55 points (0.27%), the S&P 500 down by 8.52 points (0.13%), and the Nasdaq down by 14.79 points (0.07%) [2] - Among the S&P 500's 11 sectors, six sectors declined, with utilities and real estate sectors experiencing the largest drops of 1.81% and 0.66%, respectively [2] Notable Stocks - UnitedHealth (UNH.US) fell by 2.3%, becoming the largest drag on the Dow [2] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) shares dropped by 1.6% due to reports of weak demand for its latest AI chips in the Chinese market [2] - Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN.US) surged by 39% after announcing a partnership with Disney (DIS.US) to launch a new digital comic platform featuring popular IPs [2] - Oracle (ORCL.US) shares rose by 1.5% following news of a U.S.-China agreement regarding TikTok's operations in the U.S. [2] Market Sentiment - Market fear levels increased, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rising to its highest level in over a week at 16.04 [2] - Analysts suggest that resilient economic data may reinforce hawkish views within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and could lead to a more hawkish tone from Fed Chair Powell during the upcoming press conference [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a rally, with the Nasdaq 100 index recently achieving its longest winning streak in over a year, having risen for five consecutive months [1] - Morgan Stanley warns that the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may dampen investor enthusiasm, as the market has already priced in a quarter-point cut [3] - The S&P 500 index has been in a period of low volatility, with daily fluctuations averaging less than 0.9%, marking the longest calm period in two years, yet it continues to reach new highs [3] Group 2 - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will depend on various scenarios, including the perceived dovishness of the Fed's guidance and any indications of economic slowdown [4] - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index typically declines in September, but it has risen in past instances when the Fed cut rates without an economic contraction [6] - The potential for the stock market to continue reaching new highs post-rate cut hinges on improved economic data, sustained dovish signals from the Fed, and strong corporate earnings, particularly in the tech sector [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the anticipation surrounding the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point interest rate cut due to weak employment data, while also noting positive signals from recent US-China trade talks [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The major US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 50.03 points (0.11%) at 45884.25, the Nasdaq up 207.65 points (0.94%) at 22348.75, and the S&P 500 up 31.02 points (0.47%) at 6615.31 [4]. - Most sector ETFs in the US stock market saw gains, particularly in the internet sector (up 1.52%), semiconductor sector (up 0.94%), and technology sector (up 0.9%), while energy, healthcare, and banking sectors experienced declines [4]. Popular Stock Performance - Major tech stocks generally rose, with Amazon up 1.44%, Meta up 1.21%, Apple up 1.12%, and Microsoft up 1.07%, while Nvidia saw a slight decline of 0.04% [5]. - Alphabet, Google's parent company, increased by 4.5%, reaching a market capitalization of $3.04 trillion, making it the fourth US company to surpass the $3 trillion mark [6]. - Tesla's stock rose 3.6% following CEO Elon Musk's purchase of 2.57 million shares for approximately $1 billion, marking his largest public market purchase to date [6]. Nuclear Power Sector - Nuclear power stocks experienced significant gains, with Oklo up 15.7%, Nano Nuclear up 13%, and Uranium Energy up 10.6%, following comments from the US Energy Secretary about increasing strategic uranium reserves [7]. Chinese Concept Stocks - Most Chinese concept stocks saw increases, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 0.87%. Notable performers included Li Auto (up over 6%), Bilibili (up over 5%), NIO (up over 4%), and XPeng (up over 2%) [7].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq and Chinese concept stocks experienced significant gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.9% to reach a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 index increased by approximately 0.5%, also setting a record [1][5] - Tesla's stock surged nearly 7% after CEO Elon Musk disclosed a purchase of about $10 billion in company shares, marking his largest public market buy to date and the first significant purchase since 2020 [2][6] - The market anticipates a 96% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, with a mere 3.6% chance for a larger cut of 50 basis points [6][7] Group 2: Company Highlights - Alphabet, Google's parent company, reached a market capitalization of $3 trillion [3] - Tesla's stock performance showed a notable increase of 6.48%, while other tech stocks like ASML and Intel also saw gains of 5.37% and 4.05% respectively [6] - The Chinese concept stock index rose by approximately 0.8% [9] Group 3: Economic and Trade Developments - Recent U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid resulted in constructive discussions regarding economic issues, including TikTok, with a focus on mutual respect and cooperation [11]

Core Insights - Oil prices are experiencing a "deep squat" phase, indicating a potential for rebound signals and market dynamics to be closely monitored [1] - Concerns regarding crude oil inventory are emerging, with both technical and fundamental signals suggesting a need to identify the low-price fluctuation range for oil [1] - Macro information discrepancies are confirmed by three key data signals, with expectations for interest rate cuts being fully priced in, raising attention to whether Powell will deliver any hawkish surprises [1] - The strategy of "buying the expectation and selling the fact" is recommended for final positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting [1]

与此同时，美国劳动力市场却显露出疲软迹象。 截至9月6日当周，初请失业金人数经季节性调整后，较前值增加了2.7万人，达到26.3万人。 这一数字不仅 创下了自2021年10月以来的最高水平，更是远超市场预期的23.5万人。 独立金属交易员Tai Wong对此评论道："在核心CPI环比增幅仍维持在0.3%的情况下， 上周初请失业金人数的飙升，触及近三年来的最高点26.3万人，可以说'拯救'了黄金。" 2025年9月11日，纽约黄金交易时段上演了一场扣人心弦的过山车行情。 现货黄金价格一度跌破3611.88美元/盎司的关口，但随即又强势反弹，触及3643.98 美元/盎司，单日价格波动高达32美元。 尽管收盘时，现货黄金小幅下跌0.18%，报收于3633.81美元/盎司，但当日剧烈的价格起伏无疑让不少投资者猝不及 防，心有余悸。 无独有偶，同在9月11日，国内金价也未能幸免于这场波动。 上海黄金现货（黄金T D）从830.25元/克下探至826.63元/克，跌幅为0.44%。 而上海黄金期货 （沪金）则从834.02元/克滑落至829.26元/克，跌幅更是达到0.57%。 值得注意的是，在9月11日波动发生的前一 ...