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出口需求表现尚好 预计棕榈油维持区间震荡行情
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-07 08:28
Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing fluctuations due to a slight decrease in Malaysian palm oil production and positive export demand, while concerns about supply increases and declining international oil prices persist [2][3]. Group 1: Production Data - Malaysian palm oil production for June is estimated to decrease by 4.69%, with the peninsula increasing by 0.68% and significant reductions in Sabah (11.95%), Sarawak (8.98%), and Borneo (11.24%) [2]. - SPPOMA forecasts a 17.06% month-on-month decrease in palm oil production for the first 10 days of June, with a slight increase of 2.5% for the first 20 days [2]. Group 2: Export Data - High-frequency export data indicates that Malaysian palm oil exports are expected to increase by 8.07%-26.4% for the first 10 days of June, with a 10.88%-14.31% increase for the first 20 days [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, the slight decrease in June production and good export demand may support palm oil prices, but caution remains due to potential supply increases and softening international oil prices [3]. - Donghai Futures notes that OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which may pressure the oil market and limit the positive impact on international oilseed prices [3]. - The domestic market is seeing increased palm oil imports and commercial inventories, with a weak basis, while the overall market is expected to maintain a range-bound and slightly strong trend [3].
美国非农数据超预期,美元反弹至97,油价受供应压力制约上涨空间
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 02:41
Group 1: U.S. Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [3] - This strong employment data indicates the resilience of the U.S. economy, leading to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [3] - Initial jobless claims fell to 233,000, marking a six-week low, which reflects ongoing tightness in the labor market [3] Group 2: Dollar Strength and Oil Prices - The robust employment data has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which is now around 97, providing cost support for oil priced in dollars [2][3] - The market's expectations for a rate cut in July have diminished, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to around 80% [2] Group 3: OPEC+ Production and Geopolitical Risks - OPEC+ is set to discuss a plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August during their meeting on July 6, marking the fourth consecutive month of exceeding production expectations [4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose by 450,000 barrels per day in June compared to May, reaching a new high in over a year, indicating a proactive approach to releasing production capacity [4] - The geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, reducing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East [4]
美生柴政策利好影响还未消退,油脂短期或震荡偏强
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 12:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of strong crude oil and favorable US biodiesel policies, the short - term trend of oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [6]. - The rainfall in the Midwest soybean - growing areas in the next half - month is not conducive to soybean growth; in June, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly while exports increased significantly, which is positive for palm oil; the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still at a historically high level, and the future import volume may gradually decrease, and the China - Canada trade relationship needs to be monitored. The proposed increase in the US biodiesel blending volume in 2026 is positive for US soybean oil, and domestic palm oil may follow the upward trend, but there may be uncertainties [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral: It is recommended that the resistance level of palm oil 09 be around 7,800. For options, it is advisable to wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is advisable to wait and see. - Outlook: Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's policy on importing Canadian rapeseed, and the price of crude oil. Overall, oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [9]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - Periodic and Spot Markets - Last week, oils and fats were oscillating and bullish, mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices and favorable US biodiesel policies [18]. - The spread between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil is fluctuating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. 3. Supply Side - Malaysian palm oil: In May, the production of Malaysian crude palm oil was 1.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05%; imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%; the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. The report was generally bearish [34]. - Domestic soybean and soybean oil: As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66% [65]. - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of June 13, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 174,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week; the unfulfilled contracts were 81,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [68]. - Domestic palm oil: As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41% [65]. 4. Demand Side - The document provides charts of the trading volumes of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the three major oils and fats over the years, but no specific analysis is given [56][60][62]. 5. Inventory - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66%. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41%. The rapeseed oil inventory of major coastal oil mills was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week [65][68]. 6. Disk Import Profit - As of June 20, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the July shipment was - 194 yuan/ton [73].
能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20250622
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 09:34
国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0019111 日期:2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | 进出口 | | | 炼厂开工 | 国内外燃料油需求数据 | 全球燃料油现货库存 | 亚太区域现货FOB价格 | 国内燃料油进出口数据 | | | 全球炼厂检修 | | | 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 | 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | 国内炼厂产量与商品量 | | | 美国地区燃料油现货价格 | 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | | | | 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油裂解价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油纸货月差 | | Special report on Guot ...
黑色金属日报-20250619
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 09:52
| | | 铁矿 今日盘面震荡。 供应端,全球发运处于旺季,未来存在季末冲量预期,国内到港量阶段下降,根据船期推算未来将出现反 弹,港口库存预计将逐步止降转增,供应压力边际加大。需求端,终端需求进入淡季,钢厂仍有利润,主动减产意愿不强,铁 水产量变化不大,预计短期维持相对高位。宏观层面,国内仍然等待增量政策出台,外部地缘政治风险上升,市场短期不确定 性依然较强。我们预计铁矿走势以震荡为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格震荡上行。铁水小幅回落,整体维持在241,焦炭存在第四轮提降预期,焦化利润有所收缩,焦化日产较年内高位有 所回落,持续性有待观察。焦炭整体库存小幅下降,贸易商采购意愿依旧较低。整体来看,碳元素供应端切较充裕,下游铁水 稳定在241以上,关税依旧对行情产生影响,受原油价格大幅上涨影响,焦煤价格有所反弹。焦炭盘面基本平水,在库存压力 下,焦炭价格一定程度上受到原油带动。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 ...
永安期货燃料油早报-20250617
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 13:42
| | | 燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/17 | 日期 | LU 01 | LU 05 | LU 09 | LU 01-05 | LU 05-09 | LU 09-01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/10 | 3431 | 3358 | 3518 | 73 | -160 | 87 | | 2025/06/11 | 3414 | 3348 | 3524 | 66 | -176 | 110 | | 2025/06/12 | 3496 | 3461 | 3609 | 35 | -148 | 113 | | 2025/06/13 | 3671 | 3625 | 3785 | 46 | -160 | 114 | | 2025/06/16 | 3695 | 3620 | 3829 | 75 | -209 | 134 | | 变化 | 24 | -5 | 44 | 29 | -49 | 20 | | | | | 结论观点: 本周高硫裂解震荡,原油大幅上涨,高硫伊朗供应占比较大,油品利润中表现较好。380月差 震荡, 7-8月 ...
沥青:跟随原油高位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:39
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: BU2507 closed at 3,659 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 2.95%, and 3,657 yuan/ton in the overnight session with a decrease of 0.05%; BU2508 closed at 3,649 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 2.99%, and 3,639 yuan/ton in the overnight session with a decrease of 0.27%. The trading volume of BU2507 yesterday was 93,031 lots, an increase of 40,364 lots, and the open interest was 53,840 lots, a decrease of 6,572 lots; the trading volume of BU2508 yesterday was 27,945 lots, an increase of 15,303 lots, and the open interest was 27,352 lots, a decrease of 1,705 lots [1] - Spot Market: The wholesale price of asphalt in Shandong was 3,775 yuan/ton yesterday, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the wholesale price in the Yangtze River Delta was 3,670 yuan/ton yesterday, with no change. The refinery operating rate was 34.49% (updated on June 9), an increase of 0.95% compared to the previous period; the refinery inventory rate was 30.29% (updated on June 9), a decrease of 0.54% compared to the previous period [1] - Spread: The basis (Shandong - 07) was 116 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the 07 - 08 inter - period spread was 10 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread was 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the East China - South China spread was 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Production: This week (20250610 - 20250616), the domestic weekly asphalt production was 534,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the previous week, a decrease of 1.8%; an increase of 147,000 tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 38%. The cumulative production from January to June was 1.3975 million tons, an increase of 74,000 tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 5.6% [11] - Inventory: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refineries was 782,000 tons, a decrease of 3.5% compared to June 12. The domestic refinery inventory decreased significantly, mainly in Shandong and East China. As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.854 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% compared to June 12. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, mainly due to the overall recovery of downstream terminal project demand in the northern region [11] Trend Intensity - The asphalt trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [10]
能源化工液化石油气周度报告-20250615
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 09:19
CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 供应 03 需求 04 期货纸货 月差结构 现货基差 美国 中东 国内 化工需求 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 液化石油气周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 期货从业资格号:F03128004 日期:2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 1 综述 资料来源:隆众资讯,Argus,国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 我们的观点:地缘冲突升级,盘面风险加大 ◆ 我们的逻辑:6月7日-13日,地缘政治因素提振国际原油价格,液化气市场周尾走高。本周,AFEI丙烷指数先稳后扬, 周四、周五受地缘政治紧张局势升级影响,价格快速拉升,分别上涨5.25美元/吨和31美元/吨,收于577美元/吨;美国 MB价格走势类似,收于414.85美元/ ...
【期货热点追踪】以色列袭击伊朗,SC原油等多个期货品种触及涨停,机构分析表示,中东地缘局势骤然升温,原油价格短期震荡偏强。
news flash· 2025-06-13 01:35
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East due to Israel's attack on Iran, leading to a surge in various futures contracts, particularly SC crude oil, which hit the limit up [1] Group 2 - Institutional analysis indicates that the short-term outlook for oil prices is expected to be strong amid the heightened geopolitical situation [1]
EIA原油周度数据报告-20250612
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 05:24
格林大华期货有限公司 GELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO.,LTD. EIA原油周度数据报告 交易咨询资格:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 研究员:王琛 从业资格:F03104620 数据解读:EIA公布最新一期库存数据显示,裁止至上周,原油库存比去年同期低5.93%;比过去五年同期低8%;汽油 库存比去年同期低1.59%;比过去五年同期低2%:馏份油库存比去年同期低1.74%。比过去五年同期低17%。美国商业石 油库存总量增长616.2万桶。美国流厂加工总量平均每天1722.6万桶。比前一周增加22.8万桶;炼油厂开工率94.3%,比前 一周增长0.9个百分点。原油需求旺季来临,炼厂高开工率带动原油库存持续下降,而汽柴油需求处于今年季节性低点 。据EIA发布的《短期能源展望》,随着油价下跌导致生产商减少钻井活动,该机构预计美国原油产量将在未来18个月 内下降。EIA预计,全球石油库存增加将在预测期内推动原油价格走低。布伦特原油现货价格在5月份连续第四个月下 跌,平均每桶64美元,比4月份下跌4美元/桶。我们预测,到今年年底,布伦特原油价格将跌至平均61美元桶, ...